All posts made by surix in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 21127277 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.18h):

Perhaps BTC price is going for another ATH for the event of Segwit activation tomorrow?

How it will work then will the November Segwit 2x hardfork part?

I would say the price will be under pressure until that time, that means I should sell at the coming peak?



2. Post 21546330 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.20h):

4000USD as a resistance level has been tested, which is a very good news.

Now if segwit 2x will not be too messy, price -> moon for sure.

Worring part is >90% miner support for it, and core's tough position against it... This hardfork can be more deadly than BCC...



3. Post 21584474 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.20h):

Can I understand Segwit 2x like this:

Let's say:
-  most of the initial NYA miners switch to Segwit 2x (BTC1), which represents >80% of total hashing power;
-  most of the nodes (>80%) stayed with core (as of today: 6344 core nodes vs 184 BTC1 nodes, source: coindance; perhaps we can throw in also bitcoin 920 ABC nodes and 694 BU nodes to BTC1 side?)

In this case, hard fork happens, and Segwit 2x coin gets >80% of hashing power but only <20% nodes;
Core coin gets <20% of hashing power but >80% nodes;

Then which one is Bitcoin? the one with more hashing power? Or more nodes (users?)?

I'm very confused.



4. Post 21601812 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.20h):

Perhaps people think that in case segwit 2x will fail, disappointed miners will jump to bitcoin cash instead of push another hardfork, because the agreement was to exchange segwit with bigger block. If compromise can not be achieved, the chance that they will leave segwit is quite big.

This will surely boost the price of roger coin.



5. Post 21601882 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.20h):

By the way there is a quite a big fight between miners (saw some Wechat screen shots) in China, they also can not achieve agreement on how to go for next step and start to split internally, especially after f2pool's announcement.



6. Post 21805868 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.20h):

I don't these news can really harm BTC that much. Remember Chinese exchanges have been ordered to stop withdraw during almost 4 months. And what happened?

So I'm surprised this time these news from non-official sources can cause such a dump...



7. Post 22514525 (copy this link) (by surix) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.22h):

My prediction for segwit 2x:
- In coming days exchanges and miners will start to show their "final position"; for sure some of them will leave NYA, but majority will remain in NYA;
- Major exchange will support both coins, for the safety of their customer's fund;
- Hardfork will happen as there is major miner support;
- The duel will then start:
          - In the beginning, the original chain will keep the name BTC; the challenger (segwit 2x) will have another name;
          - exchange will halt transaction for a period of time, so the opening price can be a big surprise to everyone;
          - Segwit 2x side with large amount of hash rate and low fees, but not yet a lot of nodes nor infrastructure support; number of transaction is low; But miners are all well funded and determined, so they insist on mining even at loss;
          - Split will happen @block 494784, difficulty adjustment @493920, so 864 blocks to go, which is roughly 6 days. If core coin lose 90% of hash power, it will last 60 days;
          - Core chain is practically not usable, expect core team find a magical soft fork solution, otherwise it will take one and half hour for one confirmation;
          - Core coin's fee will skyrocket because everyone wants to get their transaction in next block;
          - All commerce will have to start to implement support for alt coins and/or segwit 2x coins, otherwise they will not receive payment in time;
          - Exchanges resume the transaction, core coin price goes down;

- Commerce will be forced to start to support segwit 2x coin;
- After some time, core coin will die and BTC name will be given to 2x coin;
- Developers will go either to alt coin or btc1;
- After 60 days, core chain will have the difficulty adjustment (to 10%), miner's profitability change (if the core coin price is not yet 10% of original price), they come back for some quick profit, dump core coins till price re-balance, leave and go back to segwit 2x.

Sad ending.

Strategy: HODL, as usual. I would not recommend to diversify the portfolio too much though...