All posts made by nmersulypnem in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2333937 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
In order to just enter a giant wall like that you need to have over a million dollars in the account (one single account). If that isn't a testament to MtGox's liquidity, I don't know what is.
2.
Post 2333954 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
People aren't falling for it anymore, at least not enough. Doubt a 15k wall would work. Not enough interest for a real rally today.
Definitely a bear signal.... If he can't raise the price enough to unload his BTC in a controlled fashion, then he'll be dumping his holdings at market!
3.
Post 2333968 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Unless he is tested, he might wait until the hourly EMAs cross to eat the Goomboo's traders.
What's a Goomboo trader?
4.
Post 2334885 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
LOL. A million comes into the order book and a million dollar wall goes up. Noob alert?
Didn't say I believed that explanation, just that it was the simplest, as per Occam's Razor
Stand down noob assault team
I actually think he's trying to trick the bots into vol trading. I don't think he's dumping or buying in, he's just playing the vol cycle. When vol is low - create your own
5.
Post 2334925 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
If that wall goes down and someone dumps we may see 120 fall, especially if everyone buying at 129+ capitulates. All the depth on the bid side above the wall is pretty much insignificant bot spam.
Yup, lots of REALLY COURAGEOUS bot spammers
What are noticeably absent are the 'offer minus a cent' 0.01 bid bots ...
If I was going to trigger vol by putting up false walls, the first thing I would do is turn off my bots.
6.
Post 2335251 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Oscillation is narrowing with big fake buy wall at 127. Big sell in 5 4 3 2...
7.
Post 2335860 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Wallzilla killed the volume.
I'm really curious as to why there's a wall in many currencies.
Wall is gone - sell sell selll
8.
Post 2339995 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Wallzilla killed the volume.
I'm really curious as to why there's a wall in many currencies.
Gox has only one market for all currencies. The bids/asks in any given currency are converted to show in all other currencies, with a exchange fee built in. The fee does not go to Gox, since they ironically are not licensed to exchange between various fiat currencies. Instead the fee goes to their bank, which does the actual fiat exchange.
The upshot is that if you place a bid in USD it shows up in Pounds, Euros, Baht, whatever else as well.
Source: MagicalTux in irc a few weeks ago.
That's how it works. It's in their FAQ, BTW
Thatīs not right.
Every currency has its own market on Gox.
Look at the Canadian Dollar chart or at the polish Zloty at Gox and compare it with the USD,GBP or EUR chart.
Every market has another volume.
Think before you type.
First, Bitcycle told you he is quoting Karpeles from IRC, so you should give him some credit.
Secondly, I'm telling you to check it in Gox's FAQ
Thirdly, and most important, look at the different currencies at Gox. You will see that if there was independent ask/bids for every currency,
there would be no liquidity in any market except the USD. Then, check the walls. Isn't it strange for you that you have walls of the same proportion in every currency?
And finally, check
MtGox's FAQ:
Q. Do you keep independent ask/bid tables for different currencies?
A. No, ask/bid tables for different currencies are not independent. All currencies are relative to whichever currency has the highest volume, which is based on said currencies current market price in bitcoin. Every trade is in one pool and in fact, not are not separate currency markets. This allows users the added benefit of trading in "the greater market" -in currencies they understand- while not limiting them to smaller currency markets.
For example, if a buy order for bitcoins is placed in EUR, the order can be executed against another user selling bitcoins in any currency and not necessarily only against another user selling bitcoins in EUR.
EDIT: well, niothor was quicker than me
Well both of you are right.
I have just compared the markets on bitcoinity.
Iīve read it on the FAQ too.
Thanks.
It looks like the bids/asks are replicated on the other order books, but the transaction data is separate. i.e. There is effectively one order book for trading, but the volumes/transaction history are kept separate. For example, USD/CAD are almost 1:1 in the real world, but it's clear on the volume history that they aren't matching.
9.
Post 2340282 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Digital currency firms rush to adopt anti-money laundering rules
(Reuters) - These are unsettling times for digital currency businesses and the venture capitalists backing them.
On Tuesday, authorities in Spain, Costa Rica and New York arrested five people at the digital currency firm Liberty Reserve, including its founder Arthur Budovsky, and seized related bank accounts and Internet domains.
.....
(Reporting by Emily Flitter in New York and Brett Wolf in St. Louis; Additional reporting by Maria Kiselyova in Moscow and Lomi Kriel in Panama City; Editing by Martin Howell and Richard Chang)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-digitalcurrency-regulation-bitcoin-idUSBRE94U17X20130531There's a similar article in the Wall Street Journal this morning. I am actually very happy to see that exchanges like MtGox are taking steps to achieve legitimacy. The various statements from the regulators after the Liberty Reserve raid demonstrated that they are willing to work with the exchanges to have them be compliant. MtGox is not getting shut down - at least not until they've been given a chance to comply. It's all very good news.
10.
Post 2340322 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Currency trading on MtGox...
11.
Post 2340359 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Wallzilla killed the volume.
I'm really curious as to why there's a wall in many currencies.
Gox has only one market for all currencies. The bids/asks in any given currency are converted to show in all other currencies, with a exchange fee built in. The fee does not go to Gox, since they ironically are not licensed to exchange between various fiat currencies. Instead the fee goes to their bank, which does the actual fiat exchange.
The upshot is that if you place a bid in USD it shows up in Pounds, Euros, Baht, whatever else as well.
Source: MagicalTux in irc a few weeks ago.
That's how it works. It's in their FAQ, BTW
Thatīs not right.
Every currency has its own market on Gox.
Look at the Canadian Dollar chart or at the polish Zloty at Gox and compare it with the USD,GBP or EUR chart.
Every market has another volume.
Think before you type.
First, Bitcycle told you he is quoting Karpeles from IRC, so you should give him some credit.
Secondly, I'm telling you to check it in Gox's FAQ
Thirdly, and most important, look at the different currencies at Gox. You will see that if there was independent ask/bids for every currency,
there would be no liquidity in any market except the USD. Then, check the walls. Isn't it strange for you that you have walls of the same proportion in every currency?
And finally, check
MtGox's FAQ:
Q. Do you keep independent ask/bid tables for different currencies?
A. No, ask/bid tables for different currencies are not independent. All currencies are relative to whichever currency has the highest volume, which is based on said currencies current market price in bitcoin. Every trade is in one pool and in fact, not are not separate currency markets. This allows users the added benefit of trading in "the greater market" -in currencies they understand- while not limiting them to smaller currency markets.
For example, if a buy order for bitcoins is placed in EUR, the order can be executed against another user selling bitcoins in any currency and not necessarily only against another user selling bitcoins in EUR.
EDIT: well, niothor was quicker than me
Actually, the FAQ contradicts itself. Based on the answer to this question...
Q. Are there any other fees charged when trading in multi-currency?
A. No. However, please be advised that there is a 2.5% premium when a trade involves orders in different currencies. However, this is not a separate charge. It is already reflected in the price you see.
Based on that it looks like there are indeed separate order books, but that all trades are reflected on other currency book (minus a 2.5% currency commission - which quite frankly kills the competitiveness of the order).
So the moral of the story is that it's best to trade on the busiest currency. If you trade in Thai Bhat, don't expect to get your orders filled.
12.
Post 2340562 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Actually, the FAQ contradicts itself. Based on the answer to this question...
Q. Are there any other fees charged when trading in multi-currency?
A. No. However, please be advised that there is a 2.5% premium when a trade involves orders in different currencies. However, this is not a separate charge. It is already reflected in the price you see.
Based on that it looks like there are indeed separate order books, but that all trades are reflected on other currency book (minus a 2.5% currency commission - which quite frankly kills the competitiveness of the order). So the moral of the story is that it's best to trade on the busiest currency. If you trade in Thai Bhat, don't expect to get your orders filled.
Bank fees.
That's way too high for a bank fee transaction, especially since MtGox is not actually doing any conversion until you cash out (and many opposite transactions will net out). More likely, they are discouraging currency trading on their platform, and pocketing the fees. Doing the math on the 8K wall for example, $127 / 1.3006 (EUR daily rate) * (1 - 2.5% commission) = 95.26 EUR (exactly where the EUR wall is). This makes the wall 2.5% less competitive in any other currency, and much less likely to get hit than on the USD order book.
13.
Post 2341477 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Actually, the FAQ contradicts itself. Based on the answer to this question...
Q. Are there any other fees charged when trading in multi-currency?
A. No. However, please be advised that there is a 2.5% premium when a trade involves orders in different currencies. However, this is not a separate charge. It is already reflected in the price you see.
Based on that it looks like there are indeed separate order books, but that all trades are reflected on other currency book (minus a 2.5% currency commission - which quite frankly kills the competitiveness of the order). So the moral of the story is that it's best to trade on the busiest currency. If you trade in Thai Bhat, don't expect to get your orders filled.
Bank fees.
That's way too high for a bank fee transaction, especially since MtGox is not actually doing any conversion until you cash out (and many opposite transactions will net out). More likely, they are discouraging currency trading on their platform, and pocketing the fees. Doing the math on the 8K wall for example, $127 / 1.3006 (EUR daily rate) * (1 - 2.5% commission) = 95.26 EUR (exactly where the EUR wall is). This makes the wall 2.5% less competitive in any other currency, and much less likely to get hit than on the USD order book.
or bank fees. money goes out -> transfer fee, gets exchanged -> exchange fee, goes back in -> transfer fee, you buy BTC -> Gox fee. I can see it reaching 2.5%.
No, because MtGox doesn't actually make those conversions. They just have one large account per currency and only need to transfer from one currency to another if the net currency shift drives one currency account too low. I would say that, for the most part, they are almost never incurring any cost at all. That 2.5% is all profit. In any case, I would guess that it is often unlikely that any of the cross currency orders actually get filled since they are 2.5% below market (unless there's a persistent currency:BTC spread).
14.
Post 2343834 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Remember that?
Million Dollar (14K coin) Bidwall just went up @ $70! Hope it holds.
I don't. What happened then?
15.
Post 2345594 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)
Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got.
That isn't a bot - that's Bitstamp creating fake trades to pump its volume numbers and feign liquidity.
16.
Post 2348511 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Nothing's impossible. Bitcoin could be trading for $10, $50, $100 or even higher over the next few months.
That's wrong. Everything's impossible, except the one and only possible past and future. There is only one world. Possibilities are existing in our brains only.
With so much investment into Bitcoin recently, I seriously doubt it will crash.
What investment?
Any proofs , besides what people say? Actual numbers?
There was a major scandal in the oil industry about African Petroleum , they didn't find any oil but reported a huge find , just to raise their stocks and sell them away?
Why could it be different in the bitcoin world? People fail to raise the funds for their project , but go blabering around to keep the price up while they sell.
Look at this graph?
Does this look like a growing economy?
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?daysAverageString=7This graph is meaningless because it includes this audience of speculators. If you want to gauge the bitcoin economy you would need to filter for only of non-speculative transactions.
17.
Post 2348643 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Did anyone actually see the 8K 127.5 wall get eaten up, or was it pulled?
18.
Post 2353174 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Thanks, figured it out
I'm aiming for 3.4 BTC, we'll see how this goes...
don't crash the market...
I'll try my best
Why would anyone buy into Ripple? It has all the downsides of a fiat currency with all the downsides of a digital currency... It's just a sad attempt to cling to the digital currency trend.
19.
Post 2353554 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Earlier this morning, about 4 million was dumped within 30 minutes, right? According to Bitcoinity, it would only take a 12.5 million dump on gox to slide all the way down to $20. Am I reading this chart correct?
I realize 12.5 mil is not likely to be dumped all at once. But still... $20 doesn't seem that far away.
By my calculation is would be closer to 25 million USD worth. ...but in any case, that would never happen because no idiot would dump that much at once. They would dump it slowly to allow buyers to come into the market and sell at a higher price.
20.
Post 2354290 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
its going down! i haven't been watching the action closely this week ...but i have a feeling hitting the buy btn will be a good move very soon, place your risky bids NOW!
I'm afraid to go to sleep... I don't want to miss buying at the bottom!
21.
Post 2354602 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
What is likely going to be the bottom? 64? 80? 103? 110? 113?
0.0001? 0.001? 0.01? 0.1? 1?
I'm confused as to why this graph is generating so much panic in the forum today...
http://i.imgur.com/YbMyqyp.png?1
22.
Post 2357463 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
My sleeping 115.1 order was executed, and we're higher today - good morning to me
23.
Post 2359034 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
With several of these large dumps they typically precede public bad news (read:inside information). I'm a bit fearful that's what might be coming today. We'll see.
...that's the gamble someone takes whenever they try to buy into a Sell. It's the choice between the unknown unknowns, and the knowns. There is no way to control your outcome. Knowing that you do not control your investment's destiny is the first step to trading without emotion.
24.
Post 2359183 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
hmmm , everyone is bearish , everyone is selling , nobody is buying....
price is going up..
BIG SECRET BELOW
don't trust people on forums
Sort of: Trust them to say the exact opposite of what they are doing. They are actually the best indicator of the opposite of what's going to happen.
25.
Post 2369733 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Does gox have alt domains?
Still .com?
If Gox were coming down, it would be down already.
26.
Post 2369834 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
What the heck is wrong with ClarkMoody? It is only showing the last 20 mins of trade history. bitcoinwisdom is working fine though...
27.
Post 2370068 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
OMG its just beggining:
Wm-center.com, e-naira.com, ecardone.com, ebuygold.com, getemoney.com, epaymonster.com, instantgoldng.com, jtgold.com, goldnairaexchange.com, superchange.ru, webmoney.co.nz, m-gold.com, goldmediator.com, absolutexchange.eu, mewahgold.com, centregold.ca, electrumz.com, tukarduid.com, entelnova.com, tacoauthorized.com, intexchange.com, ukrnetmoney.com, wmirk.com, nigeriagoldexchanger.com, edealspot.com, duyduychanger.com, magnetic-exchange.com, moneyexchange.vn, abc-ex.net, mi-billetera.com, nicciexchange.com, exhere.com, alertexchanger.com, velaexchange.com, goldexpay.com
All down....
I'm genuinely surprised that a site called
nigeriagoldexchanger.com wasn't closed down long ago! Also, looks like one of the webmoney domains was taken.. Webmoney is BTC's biggest competitor - so if anything, this is bullish news.
28.
Post 2379742 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
I thought this thread was about wall watching, not in-depth conversations about technical analysis. But maybe that was just me...
29.
Post 2379820 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
I thought this thread was about wall watching, not in-depth conversations about technical analysis. But maybe that was just me...
The beauty of this thread is that we make with it what we want. And we enjoy it. If you don't like it, that's why there is an ignore button. Just ignore the users who are not posting about "wall watching", and you are all set.
I just want to keep us on topic for everyone's benefit. I'd rather not ignore peope - maybe they'll have something useful to say in the future.
Anyway, just a suggestion folk - start a separate technical anal thread if you want to measure each other rulers.
30.
Post 2379943 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Eventually everyone learns that they are pretty meaningless
True. It's good to have an idea
why they're meaningless though.
It's really just about organizing the conversations in different threads so we don't have to wade through tangents to find what we came here for...
But if you don't mind tangents, perhaps I can tell you about our lord and savior, Jesus?
31.
Post 2379987 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
GUYS,GUYS, you're missing the action ... we just made a new 24 hour high ... 122.1
The rally is ON !
someone gobbled up 1100 btc from 121.5 -> 122.5
32.
Post 2381221 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
It's back! Panic buy!
Yeah I would say, people are buying and want to get BTC out of gox, thats what I like
If that was the case there would be a wider spread between the exchanges.
33.
Post 2389320 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Just FYI: all the "MtGox withdrawal delays" are FUD. Requested two reasonably big EUR withdrawals on Monday and Tuesday, and received both today (SEPA transfer).
I was ready to wait "up to 3 weeks", but it turned out 3 days. Kudos to Magical Tux.
Props on posting this. Anti-FUD is nice to read
Me too - 2 days for max cash withdrawal. No issues what-so-ever.
34.
Post 2393470 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
This does look like a classic example of a bear trap, I don't think we're going anywhere. Perhaps we touch 117-118 and then move back to 120.
i think we are going to slowly dip below 115 and then start to pick up speed as we go lower
the bottom is only XX days away!
get your fait ready!
Is this from using your psychic powers or are you basing this on anything?
One important piece of information is the obvious buying/selling disparity. Every time a whale comes in over the last few weeks, they are selling. There have been almost NO whale buyers. That means that people in with the bulk of coins, know that the price is going down. Not to mention, the fact that the price is so easily pushed around by these comparatively tiny whales means that the market is like 80% speculation, 19% volatility bots, and only 1% actual bitcoin economy (not real figures - obviously).
Don't just sit around waiting for the next whale to dump and regret not selling now. Decide on a buy-back number now, and save your bucks for later.
35.
Post 2393896 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Well I just sold all of my bitcoins so I can buy back at a lower price. So the price should definitely go UP in a few. Haha
I know this feeling.. I had some big shitty trades lately..
edit: some dude at bitstamp is bying 500btc at 120$
hmzz..
People have been dumping loads of 500 and 1000 BTC every 4 hours on MtGox for the last two weeks. One idiot buying 500 isn't going to get me back in.
36.
Post 2394819 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
You guys see that 1000 BTC wall at 118.24551 USD? It is actually on the EUR book at 92.75. I thought it was bs to prop up the price, but I guess we have some pretty solid support at the moment...
37.
Post 2394855 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market. Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.
I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014
The last two 10% drops were not related to any news event. ...also, there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity. At the moment, the Bitcoin economy is still used 90% for Silk Road purchases.
38.
Post 2395437 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
PANIC PANIC PANIC!
SELL SELL SELL.
35K dump... I am so glad I pulled out today.
39.
Post 2395467 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
PRO TIP: Do not buy into the Sell Wall. It is designed to bleed money from the bots.
40.
Post 2395543 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
PRO TIP: Do not buy into the Sell Wall. It is designed to bleed money from the bots.
That's interesting information, how does that work?
The volatility bots assume that the price will hover around a certain running average. When they see it dip above or below they are programmed to buy/sell accordingly. If you want to unload a very large number of BTC the optimal strategy is to stabilize/inflate the price with a buy wall for a bit (artificially lowering volatility), wait for the buy orders to build up above you, then sell into them. This will cause some slippage, but by putting a sell wall midway through your big sell the volatility bots will trade into it (incorrectly thinking it's just a momentary fluctuation). That way you sell 20K BTC from, say 119 to 117, and another 5K at 118. ...this maximizes your selling revenues.
EDIT: It looks like he placed his sell wall too high and wasn't able to unload the 1800 BTC. So expect a slow 1800 dump in the coming hours (in globs of 300-500).
41.
Post 2395611 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
PRO TIP: Do not buy into the Sell Wall. It is designed to bleed money from the bots.
That's interesting information, how does that work?
The volatility bots assume that the price will hover around a certain running average. When they see it dip above or below they are programmed to buy/sell accordingly. If you want to unload a very large number of BTC the optimal strategy is to stabilize/inflate the price with a buy wall for a bit (artificially lowering volatility), wait for the sell orders to build up above you, then sell into them. This will cause some slippage, but by putting a sell wall midway through your big sell the volatility bots will trade into it (incorrectly thinking it's just a momentary fluctuation). That way you sell 20K BTC from, say 119 to 117, and another 5K at 118. ...this maximizes your selling revenues.
You mean for buy orders to build up above me?
Yes, sorry: buy orders. I always get confused between buying and selling...
42.
Post 2395666 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
PRO TIP: Do not buy into the Sell Wall. It is designed to bleed money from the bots.
That's interesting information, how does that work?
The volatility bots assume that the price will hover around a certain running average. When they see it dip above or below they are programmed to buy/sell accordingly. If you want to unload a very large number of BTC the optimal strategy is to stabilize/inflate the price with a buy wall for a bit (artificially lowering volatility), wait for the sell orders to build up above you, then sell into them. This will cause some slippage, but by putting a sell wall midway through your big sell the volatility bots will trade into it (incorrectly thinking it's just a momentary fluctuation). That way you sell 20K BTC from, say 119 to 117, and another 5K at 118. ...this maximizes your selling revenues.
You mean for buy orders to build up above me?
Yes, sorry: buy orders. I always get confused between buying and selling...
I understand it as:
Lets say price is 120
1. I put a massive wall at 117
2. Other people think price wont dip because of 117 support, they put bids at 118 and 119.
3. I unload and lower the price to 117.
4. I put a wall at 118
5. Bots think that 118 is a great deal and bite into it
Exactly. Again, this is a Whale's strategy. His alternative is to sell lots in smaller batches - 100 at a time and let the bots keep the price stable, but eventually the bot owners realize they are losing money and the market becomes fatigued. This is exactly what's been going on over the last couple weeks. You see small 100/500 lot sells spaced out so as not to crash the market. ...but it's clear that someone(s) has LOTS of BTC to sell.
43.
Post 2395843 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Well that didn't last long.. bears retreated already?
In this market the bulls and bears are just watching from the side lines. It the whales that rule.
44.
Post 2396785 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
University will hopefully open your eyes some.
Attending university is one of the best ways to get brainwashed by the status quo
One thing is for sure - this forum is the worst place to learn anything at all. If everyone would just shut up and tell me when the walls are up, eaten, pulled, this board would be much more efficient...
45.
Post 2400930 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
When the bubble burst earlier this year, over 2 million BTC were dumped on MtGox alone. It this latest down trend, we've only sold ~150 BTC. Once the big whales realize we are on a persistent downturn, the selling is going to snowball, and another 1.5 million BTC are going to be on the chopping block...
Just to give you an understanding of what that's going to do to the price... there are only 250K BTC on the order book right now. Now, don't get me wrong, there's lots of money on the sidelines, but think about what that means... It means that big BTC whales are currently UNABLE to cash out. So they are bleeding into the market slowly to try and keep the price from crashing. ...and that's why this downturn is going to be so long and so painful...
46.
Post 2401082 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
When the bubble burst earlier this year, over 2 million BTC were dumped on MtGox alone. It this latest down trend, we've only sold ~150 BTC. Once the big whales realize we are on a persistent downturn, the selling is going to snowball, and another 1.5 million BTC are going to be on the chopping block...
Just to give you an understanding of what that's going to do to the price... there are only 250K BTC on the order book right now. Now, don't get me wrong, there's lots of money on the sidelines, but think about what that means... It means that big BTC whales are currently UNABLE to cash out. So they are bleeding into the market slowly to try and keep the price from crashing. ...and that's why this downturn is going to be so long and so painful...
I really don't know where are you getting your figures. On Gox's order book there are slightly less than 120k
BTC ATM. All time high in terms of BTC at Gox order book is slightly over 300k
BTC, and that happened end of August 2012.
So, even if it was true that we had 250k
BTC on Gox order book now (which it isn't), you shouldn't say "only", because 250k
BTC on sale on Gox would bex a HUGE quantity, very close to ATH. Just remember that there are only 11M BTC circulating, when you have 2,3% of the total supply of BTC on sale on a single exchange you do not say "only", and you do not expect more to come.
And BTW, BTC whales are not "currently" unable to cash out. That's BS.
Cashing out many k's of BTC has always been a problem, and today is a
much smaller problem that it was let's say in January. This is a super tiny market, it has always been, and cashing out k's of BTC avoiding massive slippage has always been a lengthy process - in the past more than in the present.
250K on Clarkmoody right now if you group by
BTC0.1 and look all the way to $11. My contention is that since there is so much less volume on the exchange now (due to the cash inflow/outflow conduits being closed), then selling large amounts is much much harder. In any case, the whales make one story very clear - the vast majority of
BTC is not in the Bitcoin economy, it is in the hands of speculators, and those people will dump when they see a persistent downturn. Initially they will try to control the price to maximize their exit return, but ultimately they will trip over each other selling their
BTC, and we will be right back where we started this year...
47.
Post 2402334 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.
This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.
BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.
Great post. I'm beginning to come around to this way of thinking. Low volume has signaled a lack of enthusiasm, and we've lost a few easy ways to get new money into coin (Bitfloor, Dwolla, etc.) over a short period of time.
It's not just that. Low volume is an indication that the
actual Bitcoin economy isn't running. The only activity I see on the depth window are the last remaining trading bots. I mean, how is someone supposed to get a few bucks into MtGox to buy something on SilkRoad or wherever? The Bitcoin price went from being 99% speculation, to being 99.999% speculation. I'd love to know how SilkRoad sales have been impacted with the closure of LR, MtGox-Dwolla, etc... At this rate, it's a long long way down...
48.
Post 2402807 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Anyone seeing a trend with these 5 am dumps?
ASICMiner selling... China time zone.
Interesting notion ...
During this transition to ASIC mining technology, one entity - ASICMiner - has a very large share of mined coins. Perhaps they have more motivation to sell than the multitude of individual GPU miners that have been effectively replaced.
Lots of slippage when the dump occurs. There are well known techniques to slice orders and time them for more efficient executions, e.g. wait for bids to fill back in. Why don't dumpers use them?
Because they are afraid of the other dumpers. If they could all work in unison, they would - but it's like the Dilemma of the Commons, the one who dumps first gets the best price. Once one or two of them break ranks, they trip over each other trying to sell fast, and it results in a rapid crash... Remember, 99% of this market is still speculation.
49.
Post 2402878 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
awww, look at the bears coming out of the woodwork... agreeing with each other how obvious all of this was.
'k. Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction where this trend takes us, short term. Everything else ("Silk road ... yadda yadda ... Bitcoin economy... wasn't stable in May after all") is just cheap talk.
I'll begin: within the next 24 hours, price won't go significantly below 100. If it falls below 100, it will rebound sharply to a value above 100 shortly afterwards. More likely though, we'll continue trading around 110.
Your turn
I'm not sure how making a post here puts any money where anyone's mouth is LOL.
I appreciate reading other people's analyses because we all have our own biases, and it's good to have them challenged. IMO, well considered opinions
in combination with a quantitative target are much more valuable than meaningless short term price predictions pulled out of the derričre.
FTFY
... and it's "putting your money where your mouth is" because I go on record making a prediction based on my opinion, which gives someone else the chance to dig through my post history in a month from now, checking what my track record is.
Think of like that: if you don't make any predictions, you'll never be proven wrong. How boring.
That isn't putting your money where your mouth is (since you're not actually putting down any money). ...that's just putting your mouth where your mouth is.
50.
Post 2405887 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
off topic: I remember seeing a "recommended fees" table somewhere online, does anyone know of this, can anyone send me a link?
on topic: if you zoom in on bitstamp, the bid walls look nice and healthy now.... just don't zoom out far enough to see those patient 130 ask walls...
Patience is a virtue, those Askers have little. Once the price starts declining again, we're going to see a lot more dumping...
51.
Post 2406744 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Dude, stop the Keynesian "
deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic
in the least *.
*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....
Keynesians are like cockroaches
People have this all backwards. Its not merchants that we need - it's earners. We need to PAY people in
BTC. That's how you drive an economy. Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money. If those with millions of
BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in
BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.
If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.
52.
Post 2415096 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
It seems like everyone of "this time its different" preachers left. Sad times.
Not gone, just quiet. Volume comes with something to point to.
connected users: 3216
on bitcoinity..
thats a lot compared to last weeks.; when it was always below 3000 even during weekdays.. only when selloffs happend then the amount got to 3400 something..
maybe the bidwall attracts people again.. too see what will happen.. : will it be broken or will we break out to the sky
edit: there must be massive amount of fiat sitting there.... unless people realy left gox.. but i realy doubt that.. as usual gox does not communicate well.. but stays strong some how lol
Where do you see that count?
53.
Post 2417506 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
1k buy happened, here come the bulls?
1533.0000BTC just said "nope!"
That guy was the sucker. The seller was just waiting for some idiot to put up his fiat...
btw, that 1K are 101 was just eaten.
54.
Post 2417560 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Gox not lagging....
That fact is actually more remarkable than the crash.
55.
Post 2417589 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
COUNTER-PUNCH!
This is the part where you let your opponent stand up so you can knock him all the way back down...
56.
Post 2417597 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Someone who dumped 60K bitcoins at 101, is not going to buy back in. Moreover, if they have more btc, they're likely to wait for the rebound to lure more fools into the milking barn...
57.
Post 2531509 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
FWIW
Mtux says Mizuho Bank's automated wire transfer API is broken right now. Wires can only be sent out manually by Mizuho. Gox is opening accounts at other banks, which should drastically improve USD withdrawal times and bypass the technical problems at Mizuho. This process should take around 2 weeks.
Lets examine this a little.
An API which has been working perfectly for a bank suddenly stops working and there is no solution to the problem apart from opening new bank accounts ?
Banks don't just go in and break their systems, if there was a software issue with their API they would roll back any recent changes and make it work again.
This is an excuse. Knowing how Asian businesses operate I would say it's a 'face saving' excuse.
I think I can say that this is also a lie - someone at the bank is lying to mtux if this is what was said.
[23:08] <MagicalTux> we broke their system due to the volume
[23:08] <ineededausername> the bank's system?
[23:08] <ineededausername> what do you mean broke?
[23:08] <MagicalTux> yep
[23:08] <MagicalTux> it's broken
[23:08] <ineededausername> a technical problem?
[23:08] <MagicalTux> yep
[23:09] <MagicalTux> they're working on fixing this, and we're opening new bank accounts in other banks as I speak to resume transfers (it takes 2 weeks)
if anyone wants to interpret it any differently.
Where is the rest of this conversation? Looks like I missed it...
58.
Post 2531750 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Click on "quote from".
No, I mean the rest of the IRC chat.
59.
Post 2532169 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
The huge decline in asks.. were they sold or taken off the book?
No, not sold - well, some of them YES, but obviously not so many. I think they were not only taken off the book, a lot of it may have left Gox for good... This kind of news (International wires to USA stop for 2 weeks) scares a lot a certain kind of people (pussies?), and they panic and just take their coins off Gox. Same thing happened when the dwolla thing.
I have to say these are very profitable moments, in the sense that its very easy to predict what panickers will do. I remember when we had the blockchain fork, oh gosh I bought so many coins during that crash... Really, this kind of news and the panickers reaction are a Bitcoin trader best friends
What if spooked folks are transferring their coins to other exchanges and cashing out before the their imaginary shitstorm hits them?
Doing the opposite is easy money. 7% instant increase on whatever you invest. Buying into the panic has never been so profitable.
60.
Post 2532688 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Over the past weeks Mt. Gox has experienced rising volumes of deposits and withdrawals from established and upcoming markets interested in Bitcoin. This increased volume has made it difficult for our bank to process the transactions smoothly and within a timely manner, which has created unnecessary delays for our global customers. This is especially so for those in the United States who are requesting wire transfer withdrawals from their accounts.
Agreed on bullish.
There's definitely some bull in there...
61.
Post 2537090 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Back down to 90 on Bitstamp - what is going on? This is the order book:
LOL!
In other words, if you were expecting to sell bitcoins there...
Just sold my $95.18 back in at $99.16 - $95 is too expensive.
At this price, I'd rather take the chance and keep my fiat in MtGox.
62.
Post 2537317 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
... there's no sense in holding fiat at MtGox...
MtGox will be at 180 in 6 business days
Or maybe some bears from Europe will show up on MTGox a lot sooner. They are likely asleep now.
i'm not going to ask if the MtGox EUR market is sperate from the MtGox USD market, because I fear my head will explode if i do
They are not separate.
https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20800336-Multi-Currency-Trading, which is why there may be some very interesting action in a few hours.
They are quasi-the-same. Meaning the offers placed on the EUR book, also appear on the USD book. However, since they appear at a 2.5% discount (currency-exchange fee) they aren't really competitive. I think most big players play on the USD book since it has the most liquidity.
Either way, yeah, we may see movement in ~5 hrs when London wakes up.
63.
Post 2537449 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
With BitStamp trading as low as 90 USD while MTGox held at over 109 USD this is a huge spread.
Theory. With USD withdrawals delayed for up to 2 weeks on gox, people who need the US dollars (and don't have an account in another major currency) are moving coins to bitstamp and carpet-bombing the bids.
I think most people at this point are speculators who don't *need* this cash day-to-day. The panic is speculation driven, not cash flow driven.
64.
Post 2537539 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
I was wondering: why would anyone set up a wall on 99.80, when there is no almost depth till 90? I'd say there might be a dumping round 2 on Bitstamp.
But it's strange. If those were goxcoins, why would they take such a high price difference? Or was cashing out via gox never intended at all and high rollers knew already, that they have to use another exchange? Well okay, they didn't buy at 114.48 and sold at 90 of course - it's something inbetween and maybe not that huge difference at all.
But it's all speculation..
I suspect a panic by weak hands holding MTGox USD not the high rollers. Hence the dump on Bitstamp.
Agreed, but dumps on bitstamp need to be in proportion to MtGox buy-ups for that thesis to make sense. We've only seen a handful of buy-ups and dumps. If MtGox stays stable (as it is), I wouldn't expect prices to go down on bitstamp.
65.
Post 2538920 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out
"a chance". A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.
66.
Post 2546516 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Which is the best alternative to Mt. Gox? Campbx? Reviews?
CampBX liquidity is shit. I get what they are doing with the dark pools, but it actually just makes it less likely for me to execute a trade when I know most of the orders aren't displayed - and it makes the order book look as though liquidity is even worse that it already is (which is really bad).
67.
Post 2567919 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Ok admit it, who's selling?
Me obiously
Ive said i will close today session under $100, im honest guy
You know that you can provide cryptographic proof over the control of a Bitcoin private key?
sncr, but the people ignoring Jaroslaw probably have me on their list since ages
i need to un-ignore you to read but i dont care either you belivme me or not, i just said it. Deal with it.
You go back to my ignore list
Everybody ignore everyone!
People ignore each other because they dont want to see that price will go DOWN (if they are bulls) or UP(if they are bears) so they put others on ignore list. But ignorimg me causing they dont know where i will launch drop
Do you even English, bro?
68.
Post 2569591 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
I sold all my trading coins (100 BTC) @ average 101.97 USD/BTC. I think I'll buy back @ 80-85 USD/BTC.
Oh, I didn't realize we get to pick the price we buy back at... Excellent. I'll be buying back in at $2.
69.
Post 2569617 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
As a long bull I am feeling very bearish. These Mt Gox issues are bad in my mind. People are happy Gox is losing market share but for me it's more like the lynchpin of the bitcoin ecosystem is failing due to political forces. If the bitcoin processors are dependent on gox then we are close to the point where retailers give up.
Yes. A healthy MtGox is good for Bitcoin. Bitpay and others need a proper fx market with depth to maintain their business. The other exchanges are too illiquid. I think that people who want mtgox to fail are mostly those hoping to buy BTC at 2012 values because they missed the ramp up this year.
They are not liquid because most people are still using MtGox. If MtGox were to die, the other exchanges would immediately have tons of liquidity.
70.
Post 2577923 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Any good android market watcher apps?
The last one I tried ran so hot and drained the battery in an hour. I think it must have been trying to mine on my phone! ...I just watch preev.com on my phone.
71.
Post 2578485 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Any good android market watcher apps?
The last one I tried ran so hot and drained the battery in an hour. I think it must have been trying to mine on my phone!
lol ... that cracked me up !
yep
It gave me a good excuse to update my Cyanogen Mod to the new version
72.
Post 2578790 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
WTF is going on?
Bug?
EDIT: 101.x <-> 102.x
I suspect EUR book activity.
73.
Post 2588939 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
I really wish transfer between BTCe and Gox was easier.
Never though I would say this, but I really wish somebody could create Pegcoin, all the advantages of instant, decentralized transfer of bitcoin, but pegged to fiat currency value. Obviously I prefer something with a limited supply like bitcoin, but for now it would certainly make arbitraging a lot easier... Probably not a viable idea to implement though (not to mention the legal issues).
There's no way to peg a virtual currency to a fiat currency without a central "bank". It defeats the whole purpose of a cryptocurrency, and it would require a central authority with a lot of money to keep the price pegged.
Makes no sense / not reasonably possible.
74.
Post 2594505 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
The only reason someone is buying on ox now is to cash out on a exchange with USD withdrawals. That's why there's a continued spread against the non-gox exchanges.
Prices will continue to slowly decrease. Note that it won't be a sudden crash because now that so many cash outflow conduits are cut, it's much more difficult to withdraw the cash. On CampBX for example, dumpin 500 coins will slip the price almost $20. ...so people will be unloading slowly.
There's no upside here. Adoption of BTC is well below the hype, and the public mindset, post-crash, that it's more like a pyramid scheme than a currency.
The underlying demand for btc purchases can be sustained by a price of under $10 (especially now with all the capital controls). ...but think about that for a moment. A loss of over 90% of the current price over the next few months will have a deleterious impact on the cash flows with various exchanges, which could cause some significant turbulence even at the bottom. Some exchanges / services allow for margin / leverage. Those exchanges may not be able to tolerate wild price swings and may end up insolvent overnight.
...so all in all, it's going to be a turbulent time. Make sure to only play with money you don't mind losing.
75.
Post 2599203 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Yeah, its still profitable to run them at a $50 exchange rate. GPU miners will probably shut down though - helping slow the rate of difficulty increasing, and helping out the ASICs a bit.
The market will ultimately be saturated by people with access to free power.
76.
Post 2600025 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Bids are disappearing fast...
... on bitstamp. Do remember, there is a thread just for that exchange.
On MtGox, the 400BTC buy might slow the downward pressure for awhile.
Expect some intermittent big buys as people cash out to move money to BitStamp, BTC-e, and CampBX to get their cash out. It also means the
spread between Gox and other exchanges
will grow.
I'm a little worried about CampBx. Since it allows leveraged bets, a big downward move might drive them bankrupt.
77.
Post 2600514 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
^ Gox just put a full page ad in the g8 summit.
If they were "fucked" I doubt they'd spend the cash to do that. Unless you think something very significant changed in the past week.
When in doubt, stride more broadly across the stage.
78.
Post 2603224 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
google.com
uhhh. nevermind.
stop quoting him, i have him on ignore
i think everyone else but you does too
Wow, that really cleaned up my screen, thanks for the ignore tip. Anyone else I should ignore?
79.
Post 2605281 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
So someone wants to unload huge coinage and is propping up buy side to pick off anything offered above his fake walls? Since gox has usd delays he can bleed it out slowly over two weeks. I've been scratching my head at this market for days now and can only come up with this.
You have a point here. Eyes often glued on clarkmoody, that strategy makes sense, previous support at 100 was removed just before passing it. Lets see how the walls at 95 act.
Those fake buy walls are actually a huge risk for the wall owner. He thinks he's just propping up the price for his smaller sells, but if another whale wants to cash out, he can easily sell into them and the wall owner will be stuck with 3K extra coins that he can't unload.
80.
Post 2605810 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
2.5K out the door.
81.
Post 2605900 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
There are only two types of whales on Gox now.
1. Whales who are trying to buy cheap to move coins out and cash out on another exchange (driving up the Gox / other spread).
2. Whales who are selling now to do #1 next week when, they hope, the spread will be lower.
Prediction: Spread will increase. Price will go down on all exchanges, but more on non-Gox.
82.
Post 2606119 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
is this for real? it's on cnn...
Dont intent to be an ass, but l2internet
BLOGS.cnn.com
Not a real article. Its fake.
Yeah, but fun though. lol
It is obviously not written by a native English speaker. There's no way it's real. But question, how did it get up on CNN Blogs? Is there spyware also on the page?
83.
Post 2606282 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
i'd be really suprised for any of the 3 biggest exchanges to go out of business...the profitability of running a popular bitcoin exchange must be enormous considering the steep trading fees they charge.
You're assuming they maintain 100% capital reserves. All that money.... It's hard to imagine they would just leave it in customer accounts and not "invest" any of it in new servers, hosting, employees, software, security consulting, DDOS protection, legal services, physical security, or hell, even 30 day t-bills. The costs of running a major BTC exchange have skyrocketed along with the price & volume. High on their own success it's not hard to imagine they aren't thinking really big and trying to scale faster than their commissions can drive them. It's a race the top, after all. No one wants to trade on the #2 exchange. It would take an organization with considerable discipline and integrity to resist the temptation to borrow customer funds to scale the business when the alternative is failure. I mean hell, it's LEGAL for banks to do it - why shouldn't a BTC exchange, right? ...then boom, 50% price drop, and oops, customers try to pull out their USD/EUR, and hmm.... well, we're a little short on fiat today... Let's just put a hold on fiat transfers and let the market calm down for a couple weeks, and we'll pay everybody then. We're not bankrupt, we're just low on cash TODAY, after all. ...Then the volatility continues, some more bills come in, a few more customers cash out, and BAM liquidity crunch - Bankruptcy. ...and the first 21st century crypto-currency "run-on-the-bank" happens. Standard banks went through this in the 17/1800's and now they must PROVE their capital reserves every night to the Fed. With BTC, this is just waiting to happen.
84.
Post 2606468 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
People are realizing that they should probably clean up the bids on the order book and gather their fiat millions while the slippage is good.
Exactly, it'll be a desperate situation when a 1K sell drives the price down $10, but when that happens... it's a looong way down. Of course, MtGox will probably put a hold no trading again. And if they do that, I think it means they have a financial interest in the price, which would make me even more worried.
85.
Post 2612439 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
MtGox willfully coming under regulations is extremely bullish news. Anything that brings the Bitcoin economy under US regulations is extremely positive for Bitcoins future. If this trend continues, I will have to dump my bear claws for bull horns. Yes, I think it's that significant and of course the news is, soooo anti-Libertarian, I can't hardly control my laughter.
This news does not seem to have hit mainstream media in the US yet. Could be because it came out in a Friday news dump. I wouldn't expect some crazy panic buy but I would expect sentiment to begin to shift in a positive way toward Bitcoin. The more Bitcoin can shed it's "anti-regulation", "criminal sponsor" image, the better chance it has to be successful.
All they've done is APPLY. The application hasn't even been reviewed yet by FINCEN, and, let me tell you, it's going to get a lot of scrutiny. But the application itself isn't news at all. Of course they applied - if anything, just to get the money in their seized Dwolla account back. Did people really expect them to remain shut-off from the US market?
86.
Post 2619464 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Volumeless rally. Gee, I feel so confident.
87.
Post 2622165 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
A bear doesn't talk big bear words on the forums if he hasn't already sold.
A lot of bear talk lately => a lot of people are short => ...
And inversely a lot of bull talk, a lot of people are in long positions; all in.
And so you might think that this place is an counter-indicator. But the reality is that the market makers are not here at all, and this forum is right exactly 50% of the time. The big whales we're so fond of talking about aren't wasting their time in an internet forum.
88.
Post 2628399 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
I've been doing some calculations... and there is a BTC price point which, if sustained, will drive MtGox bankrupt, imo.
Granted, these are based on some pretty rough assumptions, so let me know if you see any flaws. Obviously, MtGox is a private company so they won't release their financials...
Yearly Costs:
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year
Revenues:
25,000K BTC average volume post Dwolla / USD Hiatus
Average of 0.5% commissions (most trades are algo or whale at 0.25% comm on each side)
= ~300K per month
At these values, any BTC price below 65$ USD will not sustain them financially. Now, if you factor in any money seized in the Dwolla raid, and any money they may have prepaid, that pain point might be sooner. Of course, the reverse is possible as well, and they might have stockpiled money from the boom/bust. It's hard to say, but the point is that it is not negligible risk (hence the spread between them and other exchanges). MtGox scaled up considerably when the boom started earlier this year and likely invested a lot in servers, people, services - after the Dwolla and USD hiatus, they may no longer be making enough in commissions to keep paying their bills / employees.
Just food for thought. The BTC economy is putting a lot of faith in MtGox's ability to do proper/honest financial accounting / planning.
89.
Post 2628448 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!
This is total cost to the company - not just salary. I would guess average salary is ~78-120, but the total cost is closer to 150. Plug in your own numbers, though - it's still the same conclusion. The real number to be worried about is their low transaction volume.
90.
Post 2628519 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!
That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).
150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear. Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc...
Think about it. With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping. Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know. The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag.
I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.
91.
Post 2628728 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!
That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).
150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear. Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc...
Think about it. With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping. Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know. The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag.
I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.
So according to your calculations, Gox didn't exist before March of this year (when we crossed through $65). Imagine how much they must have been running in the red when bitcoin was $5 or$12!
Of course not, that would be stupid
Last year MtGox was a TINY operation. They had a handful of employees, no DOS protection to speak of, no offline storage, small retail space, and only a couple of servers. At the beginning of this year they have needed to seriously scale up. A new AML team for verifications, many more servers, new developers, new DDOS services, new facilities, lawyers, accountants, etc... There is no doubt that they made money in the first quarter of this year, but they have obviously needed to SPEND lots of money as well.
My point is that they very likely SPENT money in proportionate to the much higher income they were generating then. An income they've been largely cut-off from for the last month. But you know, costs don't go away as easily as profits. They are still spending horrendous money. If they haven't been keeping good accounting practices, it's entirely possible they're in financial trouble. ...and you know what would be a obvious sign of financial problems? Turning off fiat withdrawals.
92.
Post 2628750 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Surely Gox put large sums of money aside for times like these. It is not as if they were completely unaware the price might drop again one day. Also, they should be able to downscale their operations easily when needed.
It's not so much the price decline that's killing them. It's the volume decline. They make all their money on commissions and at 20K BTC trades per day, compared to 120K/day, that is a pretty unexpected decline in revenue.
Generally speaking, startups are not very good about keeping safety money in their accounts when they're under so much pressure to scale up.
93.
Post 2629029 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Well, I understand we all want to make our bitcoin positions better but it's still sad to see what we've became.. we supposedly want bitcoin to be mass adapted yet we are happy it's crashing and people losing belief in it..
Greed is some bad bastard, it could break our heads at some time
The problem is that since there is a fixed amount of BTC, it incentivizes people to hoard it. Which then causes them to panic dump it when the price falls. What we need is a cryptocurrency with enough inflation to deincentive saving (hording).
94.
Post 2629038 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Don't quite agree, bubble brought loads of publicity bitcoin wouldn't get otherwise so it was good thing. Some got burned, some came to stay.
And crash is not problem or correction or whatever we call it, I'm talking about people being happy and pushing for it. Like Blitz for example - moderator on main bitcoin forum, just look at his posts since he sold. He was nowhere to be seen here but last few days can't stop posting same stuff..
Kinda lame but I guess that's how it is..
Best thing for a currency is stability.
95.
Post 2629167 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Well, I understand we all want to make our bitcoin positions better but it's still sad to see what we've became.. we supposedly want bitcoin to be mass adapted yet we are happy it's crashing and people losing belief in it..
Greed is some bad bastard, it could break our heads at some time
The problem is that since there is a fixed amount of BTC, it incentivizes people to hoard it. Which then causes them to panic dump it when the price falls. What we need is a cryptocurrency with enough inflation to deincentive saving (hording).
Go buy Freicoin then. I won't be joining you since I don't like to buy depriciating assets...
Well, that's the point. You're not supposed to want to buy a currency as an investment - that defeats the point of a currency. That's why BTC being "more like a commodity" is exactly why it has these giant swings. The point of a currency is to facilitate transactions, not to provide a return to speculators. No one should be hoarding them, they should be investing / spending them.
A truly functional cryptocurrency would have a definite rate of inflation to make sure people aren't just sitting on them.
96.
Post 2629200 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Currency is an investment, why else have it?
Currency is a tool to make transactions replacing the old Barter system. This is why all currencies moved off of the gold standard a long time ago.
The more I watch these swings, the more I realize we need inflation.
97.
Post 2629302 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Currency is an investment, why else have it?
Currency is a tool to make transactions replacing the old Barter system. This is why all currencies moved off of the gold standard a long time ago.
The more I watch these swings, the more I realize we need inflation.
I think you are confusing inflation with volatility.
My point is that inflation reduces volatility because it keeps the price of the currency at its lowest economically driven price. It gets rid of speculators and allows the real economy enjoy price stability.
98.
Post 2629604 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Don't quite agree, bubble brought loads of publicity bitcoin wouldn't get otherwise so it was good thing. Some got burned, some came to stay.
And crash is not problem or correction or whatever we call it, I'm talking about people being happy and pushing for it. Like Blitz for example - moderator on main bitcoin forum, just look at his posts since he sold. He was nowhere to be seen here but last few days can't stop posting same stuff.. If crash is something that is supposed to happen, I really don't think long time Bitcoin backers should publicly be happy about it, it's an awful thing to read by some noob who's considering going into cryptocurrency.
Kinda lame but I guess that's how it is..
First, if you are "happy" or "unhappy" about price going up or down, you are probably being too emotional. You are not happy or unhappy because its 3AM and there is no sun, it is what it is and its not under your control - full stop. Secondly, what you wrote about a downtrend "being bad for the n00bs" is utter bullshit, I hope you don't really believe that crap. When I first learnt about Bitcoin, I read about it. I learnt about previous history, previous bubble, and one of the very first things I understood about Bitcoin is that
it is scarce by design, is a commodity-like asset and thus is
prone to speculation and wild volatility, especially at this early stage. If you are thinking about investing in Bitcoin and didn't understood that, you should stop and read more before you spend a penny on it. Because if you don't like to invest in such an
unstable asset, you should really invest in a different, risk-averse asset, or in a coin with demurrage built in it like frecoin or the likes.
People should learn this: BITCOIN IS PRONE TO BOOM AND BUST CYCLES. Especially at this stage. Its one of its
core characteristics. That's why you could buy it for $13 in January, and it was traded at $266 in April. You do not need to be a genius to see that, while au contraire you need to be a delusional fool to believe in the delusional "singularity" crap.
Thirdly, since I was a n00b and entered the Bitcoin market for the first time, I was happy about dips, because they are expected and are just a buy opportunity, because fundamentals remain the same regardless of the exchange rate. Thus, this is an
excellent time to learn about the market. I had money in the exchange when the crash from $266 started... And that was very good for me, because I was able to buy much cheaper coins.
About Blitz: he has provided both well reasoned and experienced insights, you are not paying attention if you are just reading the occasional "trolling". Which, I have to admit I also enjoy, because I find it has an entertaining sense of humour. I admit I also enjoy Adam's "bullish trolling", but I guess this is a more popular statement, as what people seems to not tolerate well is bearish analysis, that seems to trigger massive amounts of butthurt.
Bingo. Key word here is ANALYSIS. I find random pictures of rocket ships and cats jumping off walls to be equally useless. Mature investors are willing to discuss both sides of coin as long as see thoughtful analysis put in front of them. There is money to be made moving up and down for the savy trader. Only a cheerleader just wants to hear things that make them feel better.
99.
Post 2635494 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
The VV twins ETF can only be positive for the price of bitcoins. One - the publicity, and two - the spread of the shares to new users.
The ETF does not represent money supply increase, since the ETF shares are fully backed.
If the twins sell all the shares, keeping none to themselves, they have dollars to buy another 100K coins.
The Winklevoss twins claim to insulate investors from the credit risk. bullshit! How are they doing that exactly? If MtGox is shut down or goes bankrupt, the price of BTC will plummet by 80%, and so will the corresponding ETF shares idiot investors are holding.
Investors are better off buying BTC from the exchange and putting on a thumb drive in their safe - and save themselves the 2-5% maintenance fee.
In my opinion, the Winklevoss brothers are launching this now because they see the price of BTC going down, know they can't get out of their position without crashing the market, and so are selling "shares" on BTC in hopes of getting enough money out before it crashes.
100.
Post 2635630 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
The VV twins ETF can only be positive for the price of bitcoins. One - the publicity, and two - the spread of the shares to new users.
The ETF does not represent money supply increase, since the ETF shares are fully backed.
If the twins sell all the shares, keeping none to themselves, they have dollars to buy another 100K coins.
The Winklevoss twins claim to insulate investors from the credit risk. bullshit! How are they doing that exactly? If MtGox is shut down or goes bankrupt, the price of BTC will plummet by 80%, and so will the corresponding ETF shares idiot investors are holding.
Investors are better off buying BTC from the exchange and putting on a thumb drive in their safe - and save themselves the 2-5% maintenance fee.
In my opinion, the Winklevoss brothers are launching this now because they see the price of BTC going down, know they can't get out of their position without crashing the market, and so are selling "shares" on BTC in hopes of getting enough money out before it crashes.
You are missing a huge point. There are trillions of dollars in the retail market that can NOT be used to buy bitcoins directly. As it stands now you can NOT use your 401k or IRA funds to buy bitcoins. Pension funds can NOT use their funds to buy bitcoins. An ETF will add much more then the current ~$20 million of market depth to back up the price. The ETF will set the price.
Well, let's be clear, no fund manager is going to offer BTC ETF on a 401K portfolio list. If someone has a self-managed IRA where they can invest in anything, they would need to have a huge risk appetite to invest in BTC. If they did discover it somehow and did research, why wouldn't they buy direct and avoid taxation on earnings?
101.
Post 2635670 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
This will make it possible for investors who don't dare to (or can't) hold BTC or deal with "shady exchanges" to purchase and invest in bitcoin the most legitime way. If I understand this right, the winklevoss twins are essentially selling their bitcoins to an audience which normally wouldn't buy bitcoin. So all those coins sold to this group, means there are now less coins on the market. As new shares are issued and the winklevoss sells out, they will accumelate new USD which they can use to purchase back their original holdings and additional bitcoins.
It looks like a very bullish sign to me. The biggest concern is that it would probably take months or years to be approved by the regulators (if ever).
BTC doesn't need more speculators. Speculators dump coins in panic the moment the market looks bad. We need a fucking proper bitcoin economy that isn't based off the sale of drugs.
102.
Post 2636235 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.
I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?
There is no tax implication for them or their corp. the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares. That money goes to the corp (not to you directly). If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.
I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains. So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes. The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.
103.
Post 2636756 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.
I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?
There is no tax implication for them or their corp. the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares. That money goes to the corp (not to you directly). If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.
I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains. So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes. The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.
What it does is make the Bitcoins into an ETF. There are well established rules for ETFs for taxes and accounting, so it hides the fact that your investment is in Bitcoins making the accounting easy, its just another ETF in your list of ETF investments.
Whether it is wise to do so is an entirely separate question.
Also, the ETFs are the #1 mechanism that the leviathans use to manipulate currencies (such as gold). So the existence of an increasing number of ETFs that can move the market however a central bank desires it to move creates additional issues.
The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain. This is not the case for Bitcoins. Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins. ...and you don't need to declare anything. If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.
104.
Post 2636841 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain. This is not the case for Bitcoins. Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins. ...and you don't need to declare anything. If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.
Please try to recall that regions do exist oitside of US soil...
The ETF will only exist on an American exchange anyway.
105.
Post 2639158 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
I think we both know what's going to happen
Historical events, sure. But their last statement was very professional and bullish. Give them a little faith. The market obviously does too, otherwise we would be much, much lower.
You thought that was a professional statement? It may have been better than the prior childish nonsense he sent out on IRC, but it was far from what an adult businessman might expect from a multi-million dollar company holding people's funds. It was too familiar, flippant, and tried to divert from the true market concerns by blaming their bank and diverting the news with their new trading engine and LTC incorporation.
It was obvious that "2 weeks" was just thrown out there. The chances of them actually connecting automated withdrawals by Monday is about 0.01%. They will panic around tomorrow when they realize they aren't going to get it setup in time - they'll probably blame their bank - and then they'll make up some BS about "manually processing" limited withdrawals "as a stop-gap favor to their customers".
...then the spread with the other exchanges will widen and another round of panic buying on MtGox will commence (with selling on the other exchanges), and once that settles a few days after you'll see the spread decrease and both MtGox and other exchanges prices fall together.
106.
Post 2643956 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Meanwhile, bitstamp doesn't give a shit anymore what MtGox does.
A possibility :
ALL the speculators on Bitstamp are already out.
Only remain the long term holders and investors who don't care about other exchange prices.
Could be. Also all MtGox users who wanted out because of the USD withdrawal lock have already sold on the other exchanges which explained the big difference lately. If USD withdrawals aren't unlocked this week we will probably see another mass exodus and Bitstamp and BTC-e diving down again creating a new gap.
I can just visualize the panic setting in at MtGox as they realize that they underestimated how long it would take to reinstate automatic withdrawals. "Oh wait, so two weeks to open the new accounts, and how long to turn on an automated feed the new bank? Two MORE weeks? And they want to cap transfers to 100K/day because we're new and they're nervous about the AML regs?"
MtGox accountant looks nervously at CFO next to him... "But if we announce that people still can't withdraw, we'll trigger a run. We're barely making enough commission on these record low volumes to pay for the new servers and DDOS services we bought!"
MagicTux slams open the doors adorned in a white cape... "Don't worry boys, I'll just let everyone know on IRC. They'll understand."
107.
Post 2650237 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
DING DING DING 2 weeks is up but MtGox hasn't made a statement and their support is saying USD withdrawals are still not happening: http://i.imgur.com/PUvkOod.png
What a joke.
108.
Post 2653321 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
So I wake up to the MtGox news - this is how I read it...
"withdrawals have now fully resumed as of today"
"...a two-week back-log..."
"...a few weeks to get back to normal..."
This is not good news. This is a thinly veiled: "uhm, we need a little more time getting our finances in order."
109.
Post 2661392 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
But tread carefully and manage your risk well if you intend to use leverage on something like Bitcoin. Things can blow up in your face real quick if you don't have the cash to cover it.
+1
I short on plus500; they offer 1:5, but I use 1:4 (or even less sometimes) so i can cover if price goes up.
This is why I won't put my money in CampBx. They offer leverage, but they don't ensure customers are covered, so they might drive themselves bankrupt if there's a big swing up or down.
110.
Post 2663129 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
"The Bots. They've stopped."
"Activate rear short positions. Watch for enemy Whales."
111.
Post 2663924 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
A volumeless rally. Gee, I wonder what happens next...
112.
Post 2671621 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
As someone who's pulled out, I just gotta say that it was a pain in the ass to actually get my money back to my bank. Buy BTC to transfer coins to CampBx, then sell and transfer cash back to my dwolla. All this while paying commissions, crappy spreads, sluggish UIs, and transfer delays. When the capitulation happens, that exit channel is going to be like the golden gate bridge during a zombie apocalypse: People will be crushing each other to get out, and in my opinion, a number of services are going to go bankrupt in the process. It's not enough to have your money in fiat in MtGox - get it bank in your bank or kiss it all goodbye.
113.
Post 2759168 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Almost no volume....
<chirp> <chirp>
<cricket>
It looks like everybody is just waiting for the funds to be released -or not-.
Any opportune whaly could easily move things down now with little volume, while to move the price believably up the same way would require much more of it.
Actually bids and asks are fairly balanced in both directions, at least for te first $10 either way.
Assuming you believe the API. Did it occur to anyone that many of the transactions and and bids might just be MtGox faking market activity? Why would you trust API data coming from a company that could be dealing with bankruptcy?
114.
Post 4027617 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
Are there any alternatives to Bitfinex for margin trading?
115.
Post 4027688 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
Are there any alternatives to Bitfinex for margin trading?
just give me your bitcoins now
margin trading bitcoin is crazy dont do it!
I repeat my question in case anyone knows the answer. "Are there alternatives to Bitfinex for margin trading?"
116.
Post 4027734 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
BTC.sx - Leveraged Bitcoin Trading. Simply use Bitcoin to take advantage of a rising or falling Bitcoin price.
You have good experience with them? Good liquidity?
117.
Post 4045880 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Has anyone used ICBIT or BTC.sx for margin trading?
ICBIT seems to only do futures, while I can't find any leverage setting on BTC.sx...
Bitfinex is having issues after their release today...
118.
Post 4048740 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
FYI. Bitfinex margin trading is working again.
119.
Post 5081810 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
if i asked you on november 30th, when bitstamp was about to hit $ 1100,- and everyone was expecting the bubble to burst any moment, where btc price would be in after
-china "bans" bitcoin
-russia declares btc illegal
-apple bans the last last wallet app
-gox stops btc withdrawels
-gox releasing a press release making it sound btc code is broken
?
around $ 700 you say ?
With all this FUD, I reckon we can get ~600$/coin if we place bids today and pray
I think you misunderstand the term FUD...
-china "bans" bitcoin <-- CERTAINTY
-russia declares btc illegal <-- CERTAINTY
-apple bans the last last wallet app <-- CERTAINTY
-gox stops btc withdrawels <-- CERTAINTY
-gox releasing a press release making it sound btc code is broken <-- CERTAINTY
The opposite of FUD is FOD - Foolishness Overconfidence Denial
120.
Post 5085459 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
Wow, I have been following this thread for a while now, I think I am going to stop. Seriously, for every one legitimate remark, there are hundreds others that do nothing but obfuscate reality and regurgitate media frenzy.
This thread now resembles the cesspools that are the Baby-Pips or ForexFactory forums in the way disinformation is spread based of half-truths and delivered with so much emotional baggage, you'd think the authors are packing for a trip to Mars (or the Moon right?).
Anyways, I digress - enjoy the feces flinging, if you are into that kind of thing.
yeah, I'm out. this place isn't even a good place to get news anymore - real OR fake....
121.
Post 5256464 (copy this link) (by nmersulypnem) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
