I think price will go down to 2000$, I'd not buy into BTC until 2500$. I think this is a sucker's rally those who buy now above 3000$.

I think it will go down to 2500 easily. These rallies are almost always sucker rallies.

I believe BTC is going to go down hard, together with ETH.

Possible 3000$ in my view or even to 2800$.

Yes I think by the end of the year it might be 5000 or even 6000$ together with ETH back to 400-500$

I'd rather be asking what has caused the latest price rally? And was it justified?

Sure segwit got activated ,but that is not worth 25 billion $, and the lightning stuff is still far away in my view.

It's not that a crash is going to happen in my view, but rather that the unjustified earlier price rally is about to get normalized.

Bitcoin at 2500$ is a decent valuation given it's current status (still many backlog transactions) but it's not worth 5000$ now , no way.

There are rumors of LN activating by the end of the year, that is what I am basing my assessment on. Plus there an actual demand for BTC could happen if this Chinese ETH ban stuff turns really south, Bitcoin could be a safe haven.

Undervalued compared to what. Sure I can say that BTC should be worth 1 million$ given how half of the world could use it in the future, but that is not how markets work.

Markets work on  potential demand, potential as in it is likely that it will happen, not just some fantasy of some greedy traders. Many people say that BTC will have global dominance and replace the USD as reserve currency. I think those goals are foolish to consider, at least in the reasonable future anyway.

So those things are not priced into the market if we assume that most market participants are rational in the long term ,but not in the short.


What should be priced in is the irrational imaginations of nearby effects. And we just had that, either the China FUD will cause irrational panic, or the recent Segwit irrational hype is about to pop.

Either way, I see BTC going south.

Except that immigrants don't pay taxes, they either live on welfare or they work illegally.

It's more like a recipe for internal conflict, when the inevitable crash happens, people will not point their fingers at the elites and the banksters and the politicians who really caused this economic crap, they will be too preoccupied with defending themselves and their family from savages pillaging their community. It's a diabolical plan but it's more likely that this is it.

Looks like I am becoming right. I think it's only going to go down south from here.


That chart is bullshit, in my 10+ years of trading experience and I have never seen a market behave like that. 

No. It hasn't done that patern and I can tell you from my experience that that pattern will probably never be done in a rational free market.

The forex markets are heavily manipulated in an irrational manner by central banks but even them don't do moves like that.

I say this as a quantitative analys who has been working with some market analysis tools, 2 similar patterns are not 2 exactly same patterns, and it's almost impossible to code an indicator to find them since the similarity threshold if it's set too high, then it will never find one, if too low then it will find many false positives that will most likely lose money.

After all there is randomness in an efficient market.

Now can you forecast price swings? Absolutely, but not with a certainly, but good enough to make money from it, if good information is available.


So I hardly focus on quantitative analysis nowadays, and more on fundamental things. But granted the market is not efficient enough yet, so maybe some tools could be designed to predict it with a good degree of accuracy enough to make money automatically.

Look kid, I have 10+ years of tradin experience, made good money over the years.

I know the market, and this is going down.

By the way it already went down and it will probably continue to go down despite your irrational exuberance, and the countless shills on this thread trying to talk it up. It doesn't work.

That is nonsense , of course each market is different, but the principle of mean reversion always applies, especially to currencies.

It's a random walk with some biases that persist which can be used to predict the x+1 datapoint if you were a HFT trader, or even go into the orderbook and play with the tick data. There are plenty of quant tools available to play with that.

In my opinion the bull market is over. And it makes sense fundamentally too. This Chinese ban thing is getting hot and it will have big ramifications in the near future.


Sure do that. It's fun to argue with sheeps who go with the flock but money is not made that way.

Neither it does about yours, especially if your analysis is just drawing a few lines on the chart.


I didn;t know about Bitcoin in 2009, but I would guarantee you that I would have invested minimum 2500 EUR into BTC if I had known about it. I was always amazed by internet stuff, seeing Youtube, Google and FB grow suggested to me that any cryptocurrency would immediately have huge value.

So I have pretty good insights compared to other "experienced" traders.

Besides I wasn't in stocks or bonds, I was in real estate and agro land.

Yeah and no market goes up forever. What goes up comes down. Being in this permabull/shill mentality is very wrong. It the same as those foolish  traders before the 2008 crisis.




I have already explained it, I wrote a few posts about it in my blog. I don't think this thread is the best place to explain it in detail.



But I don't even care if you believe in me or not. I have put out my opinions, everyone does what he wants with them. I don't care if you lose or win money at this point. I know I will make money if the market goes down.

It would be easy.


Not from me. I have been bullish on BTC until 2017. Now I think the bullish trend is about to end.



They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?


I really hate to explain myself multiple times, and I really dont care what you believe. I have made my case, now we wait and see what happens.

So what are you implying that the USD will go into hyperinflation overnight?

That is silly to assume, it has plenty of backing, one of it is a huge military political influence. If the USD were to fall really the world would go with it basically.

So no the USD will not go into hyperinflation certainly not in the next 20-30 years.

I'm not shorting via a CFD position on an exchange, via margin trading.

I am doing a manual short using SBD to keep my purchasing power while BTC/USD potentially goes down. It's less risky that way (and no counterparty risk either):

https://steemit.com/money/@profitgenerator/profit-from-crypto-crash