All posts made by VincentX in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2013090 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I think the lawsuit is baked into the current price. Sell the rumor, buy the news

I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.
Stop derailing the thread. This is the wall movement tracker, not your personal pet project propaganda thread. Substantiate your claims or shut up.
2.
Post 3401028 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
I hate sleep. What a beautiful opportunity missed because of petty biological needs.

3.
Post 3437278 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.

If the 233$ peak was wave 5, and we saw the 3 down sub-sub-waves, followed by 2 up sub-sub-waves, of which
the second is much larger than the first, then we should see another 3 down sub-sub-waves.
Those new 3 down don't have to look like the previous 3 down, but if they do, we are on a descending trend.
If they look different, then it's possible to resume an uptrend and reach an ATH.
Right now, we already are in the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave, so I expect to go down.
But for now the Chinese keep buying and Gox and other exchanges struggle to follow.
Maybe the Chinese will write a new chapter to the EW theory, exceptions to the rules?
These posts always make me feel like I'm in a surfing club.

(No offence ment.)
4.
Post 3868879 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
I wouldn't even own a car if it wasn't for me living in a bumfuck town. I'm 24 still living at the parents because I want to save a lot of money (and be able to invest it stuff like bitcoin), while my peers all live by themselves throwing away money on rent or an overpriced mortgage. Fuck that.
Hah, the only friends I have who invested in Bitcoin are the ones who live alone. The ones living with their parents generally don't worry about money yet and think Bitcoin is 'a stupid scam'.
5.
Post 3870308 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
A central tenet of economics:
Investment is foregone consumption.
In plain English - we have to give up spending to have something to save.
Simple.
Even more plain: we prefer to use our stuff for longterm production instead of momentary consumption.
Eat less grain now and plant more crops so we can feed more people next year.

Central bankers make for bad farmers.

6.
Post 3870751 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
From my understanding somebody is hoarding bitcoins when he has more coins than you do

Hoarding occurs when the returns from keeping something become less than what you would get from doing something else, more productive, with it.

No hoarding is currently happening with Bitcoin, just rational saving.
7.
Post 3982801 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.38h):
I'm looking at this picture and all I can think is "why the F would we want to go there?"
the human race has an instinctive drive to explore and experiment
its what got us this far
its what will insure our survival
its fucking important
This is the "Official OFFTOPIC thread" so here's my thought:
Because if for some unfortunate reason <your favorite destructive scenario here>, something happens in THIS planet there will be the seed for the society to be rebuilt.
Also because
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m9ffnrV95U1r1vzzeo2_500.jpg
8.
Post 3995103 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.39h):
Sure, if you like your beer the consistency and taste of raw sewage, you like Belgian. If you are, like the great nation of Germany, first and foremost a lover of greatly balanced Pilsners, you'll pass
Drinking German pils is like drinking water. In fact, that's what I thought I was drinking.
Ever drank a trappist? It's what the gods drink.
9.
Post 6079568 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
And why are you so Eurocentric? the chinese are kings of the world if there are any.
It really does sort of help to check your facts before words come out of your mouth. Both the EU and the US each have twice the GDP of China. Heck, China's GDP is only 25% bigger than that of Japan. China still has a long way to go before they become 'kings of the world'.
10.
Post 10420117 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.
This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.
Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.
This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.
Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.
As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.
There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.
11.
Post 10421627 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
In short-terme I agree with you. But, longterm and in case of Greece: They won't stay in Euro because the simple fact, that they need a "softer currency".
Why? What would that accomplish? Greece doesn't need a softer currency. Greece desperately needs economic growth.
Their economic strenghts is not strong enough. For the next months I think, we will see some compromises on both sides (EU and Greece), because nobody has an interest that Greece leaves the Euro. But in longterm... I don't think they will stay. I don't think Euro will survive the next 10 years. We already see a "tearing dynamic" (don't know if it's the right word) in the EU-population. The next elections of the South-States could bring another parties like Syriza to power. Even germany (I'm from germany) is not immune for more extrem parties.
The trouble with Greece, politically speaking, is not extremists (Syriza aren't extremists, just idiots). It is corruption. Greece scores very badly on this, just like every other country in the Balkan area plus Italy. Unless Syriza manages to come down hard on curruption, there isn't a lot of hope. The rest of the Union is doing alright and most members are doing their best to improve the situation. While it is natural for people to be sceptical of their government in the midst of a downpour, most Europeans (think 60%+) are still in favour of staying with the union. The percentage is even higher amoung the European youth, so there's hope for the future. The real disagreement is not about the union, but about policy.
And: Greece is just earlier than some others. Every state is over-indebted and some others will come to trouble soon. The only antidote are more liabilities and the central bank pumps the market... It's mathematically impossible that this game will end well.
Actually, most Eurozone countries are doing okay with respect to debts. It's important to keep in mind that it's the relative percentages that count, not the nominal amount. Higher debt isn't a problem if your economy can shoulder it. The problem with Greece is that it can't. It imports nearly twice as much as it exports and their government spends a whopping 160% of GDP. The economic troubles of any other EU country pale in comparison. Yes; Italy, Ireland and Portugal are still spending too much, but not as crazy much as Greece.
The central banks aren't 'pumping' the markets, by the way. They are transferring wealth from the people to themselves through financial markets. QE is just a very advanced way of taxation. The net effect is cheaper loans for the governments.
12.
Post 10422507 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
Euros just today are trading at 0.89/USD. That's a huge devaluation already and will be trading at par soon if this continues. As for defaults, that is effectively what happens when a country devalues it's currency (or re-institutes it's currency) and repays expensive money with cheap money. The U.S. Did it in 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard. It's a soft default ( a hard default is when they simply don't repay at all).
Yes,
if. That does not mean the Eurozone will implode and the EU will tear itself apart, as you sketch it. Both remain viable even below Dollar parity.
I understand that the European financial and political situation is enormously complex, but I don't need to know all the ins and outs to see that a monetary union with no fiscal (much less political) union is untenable given the very different incentives and motivations of the various players.
Actually, that is exactly what you need to do. You can not understand Europe if you do not understand its organisational complexities. The structure of contemporary Europe is unlike anything before and can not be analysed through 'traditional' models. You will grossly misjudge the situation every time. Even European press does not seem to understand Europe, though that's pretty much a given with journalists anyway. I don't know where you get your news, but I will tell you this: American press on Europe is downright idiotic.
How long will German Taxpayers subsidize the profligacy of the South? If they take a haircut on Greek bonds, what's to stop the other peripheral countries from demanding the same? It's as if a family has a problem child and if they show tough love the kid will rebel and run away, but if they go soft, they other children will rebel also, (correctly) perceiving the preferential treatment as favoritism.
This latest demand for WWII war reparations is just icing on the cake. Hardly any Germans living bear any responsibility for the Nazis. If I was a German, I'd rather burn my money than give it to Greece. Now supposedly they are cozying up to Russia as well so we can ad "disloyal" to "lazy" and "dishonest" as descriptors of Greeks. Germany and the other creditor nations won't cave. They can't or their electorates will (rightly) boot them out of office.
Again: Germany is not alone in this. It is not German taxpayers alone who carry Greece. The 'peripheral countries' are in fact among the least indebted and their economies are growing strong. They are as annoyed by Greece as are the other European countries.
As you said yourself, Syriza's 'demands' and their cuddling with Russia are no more than pointless provocations to make themselves look good to their voters. Their real demands softened up as soon as they got elected.
13.
Post 10422569 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
Also, to the original poster, instead of your diminutive attitude to 'the lefties', how about acknowledging that the 'righties' that created this mess in the first place are finally displaced from power. Finally there's a change of course for the better.
How do you figure that? "Righties" are usually recognized as Nationalists, most of whom never wanted an EU in the first place. For them, it was an issue of national sovereignty.
Not actually true. Europe counts many pro-EU right-wing parties and just as much leftist nationalist parties. In fact, in western Europe nearly all independist parties (Scotland, Ireland, Catalonia, Basque Country, Wales, Galicia, Bretagne, ...) are located on the left. The only exceptions are the independist parties in Flanders and Northern-Italy, both of which are pro-EU.
14.
Post 10423074 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
You can not understand Europe if you do not understand its organisational complexities. The structure of contemporary Europe is unlike anything before and can not be analysed through 'traditional' models.
This is the Special Pleading Fallacy writ large. Models do not magically become more reflective of reality merely because they are more complex. The best models simplify the situation to the highest useful degree. The simple but unpleasant truth is that the only free lunch in the universe is increased efficiency and that is rarely aided by adding complexity. Complexity far more often is a way for bad actors to hide their parasitic behavior, and Europe has no shortage of bad actors.
There is no painless way to put your capital structure on a sound footing. People have to go bankrupt. People have to lose their jobs. It's the only way capital is transferred from bad mangers to good managers. That's why it's called a "correction" and if you postpone it, all you do is increase its intensity.
You did not understand what I said. Europe is not complex because it likes to add complexity. Europe is complex because of how it came to be (and is still forming). If you do not understand these complexities, you will not understand European politics nor our economic policies. It is not a special pleading fallacy when it is the reality. You judge Europe as if it's a singular behemothic superstate. It is not. You do not understand Europe. Your predictions of our imminent political demise confirm this. At the very least you should get a basic understanding of
multi-speed Europe. The European Union and the Eurozone are but two layers of what is a complex network of treaties, not a state. Throwing someone out of the Eurozone or indeed the Union (or them leaving it) is not as straightforward as you present it. We wouldn't even know where to start. The below diagram is a vastly simplified representation of this (and already outdated too).
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2a/Supranational_European_Bodies_with_NATO_members-en.svgI know a lot of people like to think of the EU as a vast state with memberstates who can come and go as they like. That's not an accurate portrayal. Not even remotely. It might be a federal, integrated superstate in half a century, but it isn't now. It does not even have a constitution to act as a base layer for government. That attempt failed.
15.
Post 10423237 (copy this link) (by VincentX) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
Wonderful, the EU is so complicated it cant keep track of itself. I'm sure that lends itself to political expediency some how.
'It' is a fiction. There is no singular Europe. Which is exactly my point. You are looking at it from the wrong angle.
However, sometimes you don't need to know all the details to be able to tell the system won't work.
European integration has been working very well since 1951, thank you very much.