All posts made by Pruden in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2782462 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Look at that 2700 BTC buy wall at market price that has just appeared. It is not very visible in ChartBuddy's picture. Everything has gone quiet.
2.
Post 2991669 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
3.
Post 2997916 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Like I said almost three months ago, bid sum decline in past 10 days (excluding the manipulation last weekend) signals a reversal not entirely unlike the one that unwinded through June. It's so obvious to me, an average person, that fundamentals keep getting stronger that I don't think the market will let the price fall further than the low 80's nor for longer than a month.
4.
Post 3052472 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Back in April, the break through 147 was also achieved on an relatively-high-volume weekend. Price peaked 4 days later.
5.
Post 3375212 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
haircut is coming as recommended by IMF in their last PDF "Taxing Times" from October 13th
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2013/02/pdf/fm1302.pdf(page 49 that by the way it's title is "Taxing our way out of - or into - trouble?")
Check in the next days in your bank, you might find similar news maybe?
I fail to infer any "recommendation" of a levy in that text. It looks like an objective and succint review of such a practice along the last 100 years or so. What's more, the last paragraph notes the haircut would be quite large, making a case
against it.
6.
Post 3376028 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
The report itself says:
"The sharp deterioration of the public finances in many countries has revived interest in a "capital levy"— a one-off tax on private wealth—as an exceptional measure to restore debt sustainability. The appeal is that such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible and there is a belief that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may be seen by some as fair). … The conditions for success are strong, but also need to be weighed against the risks of the alternatives, which include repudiating public debt or inflating it away. … The tax rates needed to bring down public debt to precrisis levels, moreover, are sizable: reducing debt ratios to end-2007 levels would require (for a sample of 15 euro area countries) a tax rate of about 10 percent on households with positive net wealth. (page 49)"
It's really quite astonishing how openly cynical they dare to appear. Sounds like a bunch of evil thugs masterminding a plan on how to best steal the most amount of money from people with the least amount of resistance. And that is exactly what's going on. When people wake up to this massive theft happening we're going to see manic capital flight into bitcoin. As terrible as this is for the people being victims it's also extremely bullish for bitcoin. Can't do much than secretly cheer this craze on. The more they steal the more attractive the ultimate tax haven of digital currencies will become.
As well as telemaco, you make the mistake of thinking "they" would openly discuss the details of their plan if they were seriously thinking about it.
Alternate view: A bunch of economists with big payrolls have to justify their salaries and write reports. In them, they touch on hot topics, one of them being haircuts.
7.
Post 3540365 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Bitstamp at $266. Will it hold for the third time in 20 hours?
8.
Post 3540953 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
It's got to be already capitulation because there is no room for price to go lower. Previous ATH is never breached from above.
9.
Post 3555952 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
no bitstamp asks on bitfinex orderbook
seems bitfinex is out of stampUSD
EDIT: even says it right there: "Not enough USD reserve on Bitstamp, you cannot buy on Bitstamp at the moment."
Bitfinex has decoupled from Bitstamp!
One BTC is 5-10$ more expensive at the exchange that supports margin trading.
10.
Post 3582062 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
I feel like $445-450 is the new $266 an the bottom is about to fall out any second now.
If price has spent enough time at the same for people to call the top, it is not the top. The top comes unexpectedly, you don't have enough time to write "I feel like" before it is obvious.
11.
Post 3583806 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Overall sentiment is changing in a bearish direction,
very quickly all over this forum. From people expecting a crash from rising too fast, to Mike Hearns, Coin Validation, etc. The writing is on the wall. All it takes is for a whale or two to want to be first to take some profits. In times like these, in USD I trust.
do you think China gives a sh!t about what the USG is going to force businesses within the US to do?
No.
In time, there will be two BTC markets. The "Legal" market, which is the US-based market, and then the "Red" market... which is the Asia based market.
We just had an upward leg not unlike the 200->350, a correction is due and the weekend coming helps a lot, especially with what happened during the last one. Sub 390 at Bitstamp in a couple hours.
12.
Post 3631365 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.25h):
There are seriously no coins left on the exchanges. What. The. F.
I take this chance to remind everyone that back in April the 8th some people said the lack of coins was proof the price was going to da moon.
13.
Post 3631843 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.25h):
Bid strength in MtGox is declining. Now we're running on fumes.
14.
Post 3649717 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
Again, triple bottom forming. Only it is at 480$, not 300$. That's soooo before Congress hearings...
15.
Post 3649855 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
Chinese forming a beautiful high-volume bottom at 4100 yuan.
The wall at 4000 keeps its strength. But you know that 4 sounds like "death" in Chinese, and that this a crash that will take us below the previous ATH.
I sometimes wonder how much better I would be at day-trading if I stayed the hell out of bitcointalk.
16.
Post 3653357 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
That was a huge amount of interest in Bitcoin on Reddit and Wiki yesterday compared to previous days/weeks.
http://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoin/about/trafficThere must be a lot of money 'in transit' to the exchanges.
I'm not so sure this bubble is ready for popping just yet..
What if they decide to wait out this crashcorrection, making it become a full bear market?
17.
Post 3653576 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.
In Spanish, the words for "inversion" and "investment" are the same. Makes sense, because when making an investment you are giving away your money with no immediate benefit, hoping for more in the future. You are not buying what it is, but what you think it will be.
18.
Post 3660731 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
If you think that 27M in bids on Gox and 13M on Bitstamp (both at ATH) is irrelevant well good luck to you trying to swim upstream.
The previous bid sum ATH in Gox had been set
after the April crash. I guess it was all the dollars on their way from before the bubble pop and arriving at a quite less optimistic scenario than when they were sent, together with the dollars of bears waiting to get back in.
There is a difference now, though: The ask sum is still quite lower, unlike in late April at $160 when the order book was balanced as well as liquid and next thing you knew WEEEEEEE! back to double digits again.
19.
Post 3661389 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
We are at 50% of the $900->$450 correction. Just like we were at $165 on the 24th of April, when the second bear run started. This is not over until we go above 700$.
20.
Post 3662092 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:
Date Price / Trend = x% (Factor)
Lows 2011-11-17 1.99 / 2.05 = 97.11% (1 / 1.03)
2012-08-19 7.58 / 13.90 = 54.52% (1 / 1.83)
2013-04-16 50.01 / 74.30 = 67.31% (1 / 1.49)
2013-07-05 65.42 / 129.59 = 50.48% (1 / 1.98)
Highs 2011-06-08 31.91 / 0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80)
2012-01-05 7.22 / 2.87 = 251.38% (1 * 2.51)
2012-08-17 15.04 / 13.71 = 109.67% (1 * 1.10)
2013-04-10 266.00 / 71.22 = 373.48% (1 * 3.73)
2013-11-19 900.98 / 333.86 = 269.87% (1 * 2.70)
This looks interesting - but what does it mean?
That you should not buy when the deviation factor is higher than... I would say 2.
I should add that the trendline is still being refined with every passing week. For example, if the same trendline had been built in june 2011 I wonder if $32 would seem such a large deviation at the time.
21.
Post 3663480 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Yep, not loose yet, the 5000 yuan wall is barely touched. The volume on the way up here has been encouraging, tough.
22.
Post 3663848 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
The Great Wall of 5000Y stays at 1500 BTC, but the bids are piling up.
23.
Post 3665081 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
i was expecting a cup and handle to fourm but not overnight!
There is something I don't get: When the handle starts taking shape, a double top has just formed. How is that bullish?
Anyway, the cup looks more like a V, just like the weekly chart from April to October, and that is supposed to be extra bullish.
24.
Post 3666976 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
25.
Post 3667107 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
700$. Yawn.
26.
Post 3669254 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Yes, they will all buy a fluctuating volatile difficult to learn currency just to buy a sandwich. In the process they are prone to losing money while doing all this.
No, they will learn about and buy bitcoin to speculate. Then they will decide to spend it some day, the same way many bitcoiners are now spending their first bitcoins after years of hoarding.
The article on Subway shamelessly talks of the constant appreciation. Speculation is the gateway drug to bitcoin.
27.
Post 3669357 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
As usual after a swift move, wait for the bids to take their position.
And then WEEEEEEEE!
28.
Post 3673818 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
The crash-talkers worked on the assumption that Bitcoin gains stability with size, therefore -50% would be the new crash, whereas it used to be -80%.
What bears fail to realize is that Bitcoin is more unstable as it gains value.
Therefore, -50% is the new correction.
29.
Post 3674410 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
You bears are not helping to stop the rally with all these double bottoms all over the place.
The last one has just been formed at 740$ with hardly 2 hours in between.
30.
Post 3676325 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
As I understand it, the payment processors referred to in the video would handle smaller value transactions at a rate much faster than 7tps, which would then be added to the blockchain by the payment processor.
I am not a techy, so my understanding may be incorrect, but this is how I understood it.
Perhaps there is someone more qualified on hand who could explain how this would work.
I am also speculating that it is exactly this kind of 'bolt on' service that is part of the planned evolution of Bitcoin and why we see VC money coming in now.
Basically a fancy escrow service. Which is what banks and the credit card companies are at the moment in certain aspects.
So,in theory, could this kind of service be offered to the general public at a price that undercuts CC's and banks and makes the 7tps and the blockside limit non-issues ?
Everyone thinks off-chain payment processors will be created on their own. The question is, are they being created?
31.
Post 3676859 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
When seen in a logarithmic chart, I always tought fitting it to sqrt(x) was much more appropriate. Maybe we could have some fitting-analysis?
32.
Post 3677070 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit. Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.
Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.
33.
Post 3677470 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit. Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.
Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.
In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration
The rate of increase is defined relative to the value, which makes it constant in an exponential curve. It's like 100$ increase now feels like 10$ increase in May.
To sum things up, there is nothing over-exponential in a sigmoid curve, so in a logarithmic chart you would never expect anything faster than a straight line.
However, some physical effects can be over-exponential, like the factorial numbers that appeared in rpietila's model of diffusion. Do you know any others? Maybe nuclear reactions or something like that?
EDIT:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_exponential_function
34.
Post 3677902 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x
f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))
If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)
I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.
35.
Post 3677988 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
36.
Post 3678201 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
fucking saved
Needed fixing
Thank you, mate.
37.
Post 3694459 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
So, where is this magic $1,000?
Power is flowing away from Bitcoin.
2krpm is where the turbo kicks in on my car.
And you are aware that's a temperature gauge, not a fuel gauge on the left, right?
Which would mean you are kicking in the turbo without a proper oil temperature, which leads to failure. I'm not sure the increased bid sum this week is not due to money arriving late to the party, the next week might be more pessimistic as we see last monday's crashcorrection effect on new adopters.
38.
Post 3700287 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Interesting, mind linking some sources, books or otherwise of achieving a higher understanding of relevant environmental sustainability science please. Thanks.
Not sure if serious, but "Collapse" by Jared Diamond is quite an insight into the relationships between several societies along history and their environments, the challenges they faced and how they reacted to them, which influenced their sustainability (it's not all about collapses, there are whole chapters about more successful civilizations, like Japan or Papua).
The worst part is how many people could see problems coming but failed to react because of tradition, selfishness, etc.
39.
Post 3705702 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
All exchanges have their order books looking overbought. The best thing I can hope for is consolidation, and I don't give it more than 20% chance. Probably we'll retest the 600-700$ zone
In the long term (that is, 30 days from now) I'm bullish of course, but the price has absolutely no intention of going up soon.
40.
Post 3771228 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
This thread only comes alive when the shits hitting the fan, up or down. Sideways trends and everyone's sleeping.
The 400$ ATH was set in an eerily silent saturday. I guess everyone was busy shorting bitcoins.
41.
Post 4033023 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
Were in for another sell off
With which coins?
www.blockchained.comFor the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value. Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.
42.
Post 4033304 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
www.blockchained.comFor the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value. Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.
Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have
no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.
It is useful because there is obviously a correlation between coins on and off the books, especially in similar situations, and the fact is there are no new coins for sale showing up whereas it has been typical of them to do so in a dramatic manner.
43.
Post 4034022 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
It is useful because there is obviously a correlation between coins on and off the books, especially in similar situations, and the fact is there are no new coins for sale showing up whereas it has been typical of them to do so in a dramatic manner.
What similar/typical situations are we talking about?
This seems very anecdotal. I'm not sure I see the evidence.
Doesn't ask depth dropping make sense when asks are pulled to market sell? Does it make sense to keep your limit orders at $1500 on the book if you are willing/planning to dump them lower?
About the typical situations: during the april crash ask sum more than doubled (50k to ~120k). During the november crashcorrection ask sum trebled (10k to 30k, you can't see it accurately so you will have to believe me).
Now, however, ask sum is
steady (see chart right above shown on blockchained.com), and decreased suddenly during the hardest fall. While the panics previously mentioned involved coins coming out of nowhere into market sells, today's sells did not cause more coins to appear, unlike in previous crashes.
This is what oda.krell said about feeling bullish for the bid/ask ratio, but in other words.
44.
Post 4330403 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.51h):
Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...
You can tell we are turning down sometime within the next 15 days, reaching $650 later. I will be more precise with the timing as it gets closer.
Should I be wrong, I will be happier, because I'm hodling, which is the best way of being wrong. You should all try it.
45.
Post 4332789 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.51h):
I am not surprised at all by the German outbreak these days. Since 1914, it has been the most spoken language in Europe... Every 25 years.
46.
Post 4333401 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.51h):
I am not surprised at all by the German outbreak these days. Since 1914, it has been the most spoken language in Europe... Every 25 years.
Did I sleep through something in the 60s?
It's called and outlier that doesn't break the trend... Don't you read this subforum?
47.
Post 4374397 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.52h):
Watch the new lows being set and the bid sum evaporating... Actually it's been doing that since days before the top. Seriously, bulls, it didn't have to be this way. Why do you contribute to making every bubble pop the same? You can't blame the smug technical analysts, you're doing their job for them!
No ATH until late February at the earliest.
48.
Post 4863018 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.01h):
Not a chance. It removes the option of "cross trades".
e.g You are a broker who has order to buy 200 and sell 100.
The broker would then buy 100 and then "cross" 100, resulting in 200 bought and 100 sold.
This is critical in open outcry exchanges.
plz, could you explain that for a 5year old? thx
Let's use Corn Futures as our commodity.
Broker X has 2 clients.
Client 1 makes breakfast cereals.
Client 2 is Jo Farmer with 5000 acres of corn that will mature in 2 months.
Client 1 wants to buy 200 tonnes in 2 months.
Client 2 wants to sell 100 tonnes in 2 months.
Broker X enters the market place and offers to buy 100 tonnes.
Broker Y sells him 100 tonnes. Broker X immediately "crosses" 100 tonnes.
The "crossed" trade is a buy and sell at the same price.
Broker X has now bought 200 tonnes and sold 100 tonnes fulfilling both orders.
I was lucky enough to work in the Australian Futures Exchange during the "open out cry" era. "Open out cry" is trading directly with a bunch of people that is monitored by officials who then relay the trades to the outside world.
Imagine 200 people in a circle 30 feet wide all trying to trade. I was on the desk relaying buy and sell orders to the traders in the circle. It was up to the traders to figure out when to "cross" or not.
The movie Trading Places shows this type of exchange. HTH.
Thanks, but that's for two different brokers. We are talking about an account buying to himself.
49.
Post 5027119 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.04h):
We are so far below the super-exponential trendline... Obvious buying opportunity! $100 000/BTC before autumn!
50.
Post 5106770 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.07h):
square root (Cycle High / Cycle Low) * Cycle Low
666.716 = sqrt (1163 / 382.21) * 382.21
That could be more simply stated as sqrt (Cycle High*Cycle Low), that is, the geometric mean. Very nice. It seems it was around 115 in the earlier bear market, so we seem to be in an equivalent to June last year. Stable, but in need of shaking the last weak hands.
51.
Post 5125459 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
But but but... super-exponential...
52.
Post 5387544 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.20h):
there were 9 found blocks in only 20 minutes, how odd is that ?
Since the probability distribution is exponential:
http://www.endmemo.com/statistics/exponential.phpMean: 2 (2 blocks in 20 minutes, actually slightly greater)
Greater than: 9
A little more than 1%, which means this is expected to happen once every day on average.
53.
Post 5674249 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
I wouldn't use Germany as a shining example of a worker's paradise if I were you. It's a place where they work year round to bail out Greeks and Italians who take summers off.
billiyjoeallen, I wish your facts supported your bright rethoric.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/06/08/countries-most-vacation-days/2400193/It's incredible how far this "northern Europe workers" vs "lazy Mediterraneans" lie has gone.
Disclosure: I'm Spanish.
54.
Post 5674518 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
That does not detract from the fact that vacation days numbers are very similar all over Western Europe. Go ahead, find a source that supports billyjoeallen ignorant (but unfortunately popular) misconception.
55.
Post 5838533 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Any longtimer here who wants to escrow a bet?
I can manage that if you want.
Let's do it then.
56.
Post 5846499 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Without Petrolum we won't even have the time to think about the environnement because we would be too occupied to survive
Petrolum allowed us to build so much and allowed us to have time and ressources to pursue other projects than just feeding ourselves
Solar panels, windmills and "renewable" energy sources don't only use fuel-based infrastructure, they use a lot of rare metals and you need to use a lot of water and pollute a lot to extract a rare metal
BS, wind and hydro use conventional alternators and solar furnaces are more suitable than photovoltaic for large installations, none of those require exotic materials and all offer a greater potential return on investment than the equivalent value of oil.
This conversation has directed me to reading on EROEI:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_investedLatest oil discoveries are only slightly above Photovoltaic. And I love the concept of "solar breeders". With the power of the exponential function, I can easily see Europe living on Sahara Sun in a few decades.
57.
Post 5854772 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
I have watched that the HODL word is so much used in this forum. I have searched in almost the whole internet and didn't found anything about its meaning. So I registered exclusively to ask this:
What the f+ck does HODL mean?
Foundational thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0
58.
Post 5855551 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Very telling that no bounce is achieved even at current levels. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but bear with me: This thing needs to capitulate on incredible volume and a low <50 before we bottom out for good.
Agreed. Also agree 'wot no bounce' looks bad as does spiking number of coins on offer
Question is when is the capitulation, and what happens between now and then
I highly doubt we will be seeing the final capitualtion any time soon, but we may make a new low on this move before it ends.
Time will tell ...
Please notice the date.
59.
Post 5907568 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year.
I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal). Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund.
Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.
I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.
This family of three lives opulently on less than $3.3k/month (you should add the house payments if you haven't got it yet, admittedly), in a metropolis it's probably much harder.
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/4% APR is a conservative estimate for stock market long-term profitability
after taxes and inflation.
Just save 25 times your annual spending and you're comfortably set for life.
60.
Post 5910556 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?
Y'all keep talking about a really long bear market. In 2011, it was 4 months top-to-bottom. Fast though time has gone by, we're almost there already. It doesn't get any worse than this.
61.
Post 5926974 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Secession movements in [...], Scotland, Caledonia.
I know latin synonyms are all the go on this thread, but let's not take it too far.
Did you mean Catalonia by any chance?
62.
Post 5934484 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Kachiiing...
Damn, that bet wasn't good for my health...
Damn your FUD-o-matic.
63.
Post 5938702 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Just wanted to thank stan.distortion here for escrowing the bet.
We didn't do any m-of-n stuff, so he was free to do with the funds as he wanted, but delivered as promised.
So yes, there are some decent folk involved with bitcoin, it ain't all scams and hacks
.
Yep, kudos to you both, comrades.
64.
Post 5954853 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
Karpeles left us hanging, but he was one guy. How can five exchange operators leave us hanging? If this story wasn't bullshit, someone would likely have leaked a confirmation by now. This story is a Dorian.
If this story were true, you would expect the operators to confirm it?
The rumour started more than a week ago. The fact that it didn't die is to me confirmation enough.
65.
Post 5969095 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
one thing that ive rarely seen come up in solar power conversations is the fact that you are capturing a huge fraction of the solar energy onto the black panel, rather then reflecting it back into the air/space like if it hit water or hit green foliage. Solar Panels effectively act like blacktop pavement in that regard.
MO, the future is wave power and nuclear.
You made me look it up. Solar panels albedo are equal to Earth's average, 0.3, much greater than new or even worn asphalt. I guess this is why it rarely comes up in solar power conversations.
Also, are you thinking of putting solar panels on water?
http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/ask-pablo-do-solar-panels-contribute-to-the-heat-island-effect.html
66.
Post 5974455 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
How sad that people that most probably, this being a Bitcoin forum, have their individuality in high regard, engage in groupthink, feeding back feelings of contempt for Jorge ending in the preposterous certainty that he is a paid troll.
67.
Post 5980029 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
KFR, you are the winner of the thread this morning.
Off to watch F1 with a short open while y'all figure out his message.
68.
Post 5981198 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
Awesome tape-painting, with a sell every second for a minute.
69.
Post 5982799 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
The 0.01BTC/second sells keep on pounding
465 low just broken.
70.
Post 5984693 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
Of course the 15 april deadline is true, it's just a matter of how much that is already priced in. Judging by denial in this thread, not very much.
400 does not seeem too solid, therefore.
71.
Post 5985454 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
ShroomsKit announced an ignore. I guess we're in the "back to normal" phase of the crash.
72.
Post 6048848 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.
The only thing missing is the volume
I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).
24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/MtGox days with volume above 150k are few:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvThus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.
Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.
73.
Post 6049135 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.
The only thing missing is the volume
I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).
24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/MtGox days with volume above 150k are few:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvThus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.
Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.
Another thing is to look at the volume in $ terms.
Some of those days with gox with 150k of volume is when the price was like $50 or less. For the same $ amount at todays rate we would only need 19k btc volume...
That's incorrect: Volume in merchandise is a stable reference, unlike currency volume, which would need to grow with price to maintain liquidity relative to market cap.
74.
Post 6069920 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
Hey Adam and boys,
whats happening in BTCland?
Saw Gox bit the bullet but didn't expect to see this much carnage.
Someone give me a quick update.
China has been banning Bitcoin for the last four months. Current deadline is 15th April.
Also, every long-term technical indicator is going down: daily 200 sma, weekly 21 ema...
Fundamental indicators? number of transactions has turned south for the first time since December.
The only things holding us are the $400 double (december and february) bottom, that there is not much selling from BIT, and the fact that volume is high though inconspicuous due to exchange market fragmentation.
And eBay now has a category for "virtual currency".
75.
Post 6096801 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
The volume post-emptyGox seems so low that one has to wonder just how much of this rise to 1200 was actually caused by the virtually virtual GoxUSD
well really, how can the volume continue when it is all confiscated?
Gox was a monopoly whereas now exchanging is distributed among several big players. Have you tried adding up Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e? They give daily figures very similar to what MtGox used to have until May 2013.
76.
Post 6120995 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.34h):
It's just that no bet is certain while China does not resolve.
China really is not a big element, its volume is mostly westerners taking advantage of zero-fees, but I can't fight the markets, so China it is.
77.
Post 6168104 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
~26 hours ago when we first dipped down from 440 to 400 I was sleeping at the time (I'm in Europe), and I lost money by sleeping in BTC. Sold at 400 when I woke up. Last night I was up until 3am watching the price go down to 355, went to sleep for 4 hours in fiat, and woke up at 400.
What the fuck.
Am I just really unlucky or am I doing something wrong? Why do massive changes occur at roughly 3:00 am UTC? Am I missing something?
You are not alone bro..
Tell me about it. The Gox crash, the $50 fight a year ago... always at the wee hours of the day in Europe.
78.
Post 6272058 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.
Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)
The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side. Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?
True, but bitstamp still has (by far) the biggest orderbook of any exchange right now.
And mtgox dwindled a lot towards its death, but that was mostly because of the price rising so much.
[Looks like a bid sum peaking around $70mil USD and an ask sum peaking at 30,000BTC in November 2013.
I was always a bit worried that the grind from July to October was powered by a constant amount of fiat and decreasing supply of Bitcoins. I supposed it was due to the combination of price increasing and MtGox losing market share by 15% every month, but with what we now know about them I'm not so sure...
79.
Post 6349546 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Is there an explanation of that plot somewhere? (How can the number decrease? Because empty addresses are excluded?)
Thanks...
That's number of addresses involved in a transaction per day. A little more than two addresses per transaction.
80.
Post 6362054 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Did you brake test the train before departing?
81.
Post 6427381 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
this must best the longest bear market in bitcoin history.
It will be something to tell your grandchildren about when you want them to stop being ungrateful shits.
No it isn't. After the peaks to $32 in the summer of 2011 it took until Feb 2013 (1.5 years later) to pass $32 again. If we haven't passed 1163 next year it'll be about the same time.
A bear market does not end at ATH. It is easy to see its end looking at a chart. The bad news is that bear and bull markets only exist in hindsight.
Anyway, in 2011 it was 5 months and 8 days long, June 8th to November 18th. We gotta go lower than $340 after May the 8th to surpass that.
82.
Post 6472543 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Stop with nonsense about coins moving to western exchanges. Bitcoin transaction volumes are tepid these days.
83.
Post 6482930 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Explanation 1: The candle will be red if the exit price is lower than the entrance price and the candle will be green if the exit price is higher than the entrance price.
Regarding Explanation 1: If the thick part of the candles reflects the price entrance and exit points, sometimes the thick part of the candle does NOT seem to match with the supposed price entrance and exit points... b/c the exit of one candle does NOT match up with the entrance of the next candle or possibly with the entrance into the next candle after that... or the thick portion of the candle is just sitting aloof and not connected to either side.. Something seems to be wrong with my understanding of these candles b/c frequently the thick parts of the candles do NOT seem to match up.
The candle is born when the first trade is made, creating the "entrance point": the start of the candle is determined by the first trade in that time period. Sometimes the first trade is performed at quite a different price to the last price (exit point) of the previous candle. Hence, the gap.
This is frequent at illiquid or low-volume markets like this one:
https://btc-e.com/exchange/usd_cnh
84.
Post 6727091 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I hope you have a lot of yellow markers.
85.
Post 6777807 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
that cost pre transaction is babylon it assumes everyone is mining with equipment 6-12 months out of date .
Is it? What factor should one apply to those number to get the real cost?
I don't get the point of the discussion. It has always been obvious to me that the cost per transaction adds the fees and the inflation at current USD value of bitcoins. I have just tested it and I get coherent numbers between the different charts (tx per block, fees per day, value of bitcoin), I might download the .csv's if I really thought I could be wrong.
Now, the "Network deficit", that's bollocks, maybe that's what Adams was thinking about.
86.
Post 7134634 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.50h):
In the stock market, bullishness from investors is a contrarian omen when seen after a bull market has fully developed, and a very good, straight, indicator after the first signs of reversal coming from a bear market. In my opinion, the latter case is of application to the current Bitcoin market.
87.
Post 7215941 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
Debt is money. Taxes are freedom. Boring is good.
88.
Post 7315094 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Hey Blitz.... I am very excited to notice that you got rid of that misleading definition of FUD from your signature ... that is great!!!!
In order that we can better understand the meaning of your statement, above, are you now back to using the commonly accepted meaning of FUD? That is "fear, uncertainty and doubt"?
Dude, I know bitcoins can't buy everything but please do get a sense of humour.
89.
Post 7504877 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
monkey says up now.
Try these glasses, you're obviously making monkey lose his temper by staring at him.
90.
Post 7671753 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Can you imagine in 1994?
EUROPEAN MAILING AUTHORITY ADVISES POSTAL SERVICES IN EU NOT TO RECEIVE, WRITE OR SEND EMAILS.
Who made them think they have something to say on the matter?
91.
Post 7993795 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
DO YOU THINK THIS IS A YOLK?
92.
Post 8005941 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
Religion and politics, people. Religion and politics.
Adam you really need to moderate this thread somehow, this thread many times go completely off-topic, please try to do this because then what is the benefit of moderated thread.
If you never moderate thread.
You've been adamstgBitted!
93.
Post 8070915 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
Lots of short offered between 580 and 590. That is squeeze fodder queuing up for certain death.
Wasn't a slow fall to <500 one of your scenarios?
94.
Post 8109784 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
monkey says buy, so i buy now.
You mentioned you monkey worked on mean-reversion. What happens if it turns out the sample data we have is not relevant to the current situation? That is, what if Bitcoin price action has entered a new era?
95.
Post 9655453 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
Monkey wants me to buy bitcoin now.
Continues to hold US long bonds and metals.
He thinks today may be a turning point for oil (again).
He says this is a top in SPX.
Well, I might be wrong but this is looking far from toppy in stawks. This is actually as far from it as I can imagine: five-month uptrend in VIX just broken, divergences in Advance-Decline have been resolved to the upside, volume is back; only real weakness are junk bonds. This bull market is so absurd it will always have one further leg.
Bitcoin looks well set towards new year's eve. About the rest, I don't have an opinion formed (also, who cares about trading oil having natgas?
)
96.
Post 13209898 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
Money is simply the most marketable (liquid) commodity. In many languages the word "silver" is a synonym for money. It's the thing that eliminates the need for a double coincidence of wants. Using altcoins is basically the same as going back to barter. That's taking money backwards, not forwards.
You don't go back to barter because barter was never the beginning of anything. This has to be the most misguided conception of Austrian Economics. Centuries of Anthropology have not yielded a single testament to the use of barter before money. Which makes sense, because it is absolutely useless.
Money was debt since invention. Favours owed to others. The fact that it takes the form of a commodity is that it was the only way to keep track of it, the first (decentralized) ledger.
97.
Post 13213831 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
serious question for anyone here, what happens if the fed raises interest rates?
Inflation picks up and finally, for a generation, people realize that Central Banks in the end always accomplish the opposite of what's pretended.
98.
Post 13247030 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
When margin was started they said they would allocate 500k$ to margin funding. Unless that has been increased a lot, it's really no big deal.
99.
Post 13247062 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
on BFX:
~ 3 million coins margin long. That's ~20% of all coins in existence! Anybody rich could crash this market. I'm paying 0.5% interest every 100 days, there are so many coins available for shorting. All I have to do is wait.
So what's going to happen first, the Fed raising rates and crushing all dollar denominated assets or full blocks causing a fee spike and a network slowdown?
Go to Cryptofacilities.com, contracts trade at a ~60%/year premium, so you earn interest for shorting.
Also, where do you see 20% of coins long? Total swaps are 25M$, that's less than .5%.
100.
Post 13270819 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
It should not be too hard to guess the direction from here.
The order book is thinning and everyone is long on overextended margin.
Good luck with holding this price up.
There are as few longs open as at $435 three days ago or $420 5 days ago. The deleveraging (27M$ to 24M$) of the last 2 days seems very bullish to me.
Chart:
https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals
101.
Post 15004601 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
The evolution of the bid sum on various exchanges does not support a bullish scenario. Compared with December with a top of 475$, the bids are now much lower on
western exchanges, down to 50% on Bitstamp. On Huobi, I suspect a whale / miner bullish manipulation: some 30 - 40 million CNY have been added to the bids during the
last month, but without a real intent on buying, or we would be over 500$ already. Those bids have been pulled every time a minor dump occurred.
Did you add USD and EUR bids at Bitstamp? The splitting of trading activity into 2 currencies has made historical figures hard to compare.
But most importantly: Where do you see bid sums? I miss coinorama so much...
102.
Post 17480279 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
The first time we broke 1000$, in 2013, we were under 600 a few days later, yet you couldn't imagine us going down to 750 now?
This thread is very instructional, on how NOT to trade. You are all emotionally invested in Bitcoins, like I was then.
It's only a trade, folks. If your happiness depends on the next leveraged long being profitable, you will not reach old age.
103.
Post 17643103 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
You've gotta cut Elwar some slack. I think he's American.
Americans seem to have a different definition of "socialist" from the rest of the world. Due to media brainwashing and perhaps a less-than-optimal educational system, many Americans seem to think that socialists and fascists are the same, rather than being bitter enemies. They don't realize that fascism is a right-wing phenomenon while socialists are left-wing.
They tend to call "centralized government" what the rest of the world sees as civil infrastructure. They also like to think of a heavily incarcerated civilian population and government data-mining as "freedom" or "liberty".
I'm dying to hear from you not-brainwashed colleague how fascism is different from socialism, apart from different brands useful for getting into brawls.
104.
Post 17698670 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.03h):
does anyone think FOMC meeting today will affect the bitcoin price after decision?
if i recall, every time federal reserve keeps the federal funds rate the same, hold will shoot up, and US dollar index will go down. As The Fed continues to prop up our fake economy with artificial interest rates and skewed inflation, and bitcoin seems like gold 2.0, wouldn't it make sense for btc to price to shoot up after meeting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ga3maNZ0x0w im gonna watch it live here to see what happens, but i predict Federal Reserve will keep its main rate on hold at 0.50-0.75%.
CME group shows probability at 96% of the federal funds rate staying the same, so it could already be priced in.
As long as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, the fake stock market will continue to hit new highs despite all the negative/falling economic indicators to the contrary. Once they begin to raise rates, the house of cards in the market will start to crumble.
It really is like 2008 all over again.
u think this will be worse than 2008?
As someone who has been following the markets for 3 years and is now making a living off them, let me tell you disasters have a way of not happening, and it's certainly not gonna happen in at least 1 year. Corporate credit is perfect and the Trump rally is only one chapter of the bull market that started around one year ago.
105.
Post 17700867 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.03h):
As someone who has been following the markets for 3 years and is now making a living off them, let me tell you disasters have a way of not happening, and it's certainly not gonna happen in at least 1 year. Corporate credit is perfect and the Trump rally is only one chapter of the bull market that started around one year ago.
Total, complete, and utter bullshit. That's what Wallstreet and the media want Average Joe retail investor to believe. If the Fed begins to raise rates, a market correction will happen within a year, 18 months at the longest.
The only thing that could possibly temper a major market correction is if interest rates are kept inordinately low until Trumps corporate tax cuts and punitive trade tariffs have enough time to actually kick in and inact drastic domestic business changes... but that would take at least 18-24 months to take effect, provided they were inacted right now, tomorrow at the latest.
You forgot to include any semblance of reasoning in your message.
Corporate credit is on fire, that is a fact because issuance and prices are public. How you can see a conspiracy in that is beyond me. Corporate credit deteriorates well before the stock market, around 1-2 years in advance.
Also, you were talking about something "worse than 2008" but now you mention a "correction" (which I define as a drawdown of around 10% and less than a year long). Of course corrections are gonna happen all the time.
Also, you forget than rates may rise behind inflation so they wouldn't matter.
106.
Post 17713341 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.03h):
jfi there are still > 22k BTC shorts on bitfinex. that can escalate quickly. next week is critical
Short positions on bitfinex haven't exceeded 16k since the hack. The current figure is about 13k. I'm not sure where you are getting 22k from.
https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusdFrom here:
https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totalsI wonder what the difference means.
107.
Post 18228712 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
Get ready for dat bounce
QFT
108.
Post 18243493 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
So anyone care to explain why this whole BU fork FUD just
happens to come up
immediately after the ETF disapproval? Hmmm?
You guys are getting played. The pumpers ALWAYS come up with a reason to DUMP following an ATH. If they can't exploit a hole, hack an exchange, or DDoS the shit out of one, they'll find another way.
The new way is pretty simple: social engineering based on emotion. Make something trivial about Bitcoin into a big deal, create troll/shill accounts to divide the community, push $$$ towards alts and tout them as 'Bitcoin 2.0', and get everyone whipped up in a frenzy. And short-dump on the way down.
Apparently, 90% of the time it's gonna work every time. Because bitcoiners are a bunch of overgrown whiny babies that can be easily manipulated.
Yet you didn't see it coming. Hmmmm? Maybe it was because you have been expecting a bounce since $1125? What exactly puts you above the overgrown whiny babies?
Get ready for dat bounce
Now stop misleading newcomers before, god forbid, you make someone buy all the way down to $400 on your advice instead of waiting for a medium-term bottom.
109.
Post 21576781 (copy this link) (by Pruden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.20h):
[edited out]
Don't get lulled into a false impression of equivalencies between cryptos, merely because we have short term simularities (supposed synchronization) in performance - that happens sometimes, yet it does not necessarily play out on a longer scaler or even speak to some fundamental differences between them.
There seems to be one guarantee though, all crypto keeps rising in USD price regardless of bubbles and busts
Is this correct?
Sure all cryptos have been in a considerable price appreciation in regards to the dollar for nearly a year now, and sure, such ongoing crypto pumping can occur for another year or two (surely not guaranteed), but even if various cryptos are pumping simultaneously, that does not take a way from the fact that some of them are pure crap and they are just caught up in the pump.. so merely because they happen to be top 10 in crypto, does not necessarily make them good or good investments in relation to bitcoin, for example.
Also, we know that sometimes, you can make way more in various alt currency pump and dumps (maybe even 10x more than BTC or even greater), but those kinds of historical facts do not make those alt cryptos equivalent to bitcoin in fundamental terms - even though they surely are likely to be riding on bitcoin's coat-tails of success and security in order to achieve their own level of price appreciation that might dwarf bitcoin for short periods of time and even allow people to become rich faster, if they can play their cards right and not get scammed in such pump and dumps.
Anyhow, the recent consistent and ongoing superior price appreciation of various cryptos in regards to the dollar does not guarantee in any way that it is going to continue or even continue consistently when some of the scams are discovered, which could also take a considerable amount of time to realize that a large number of the cryptos are scams or at least they do not have fundamental value beyond theoretical and beyond a bunch of folks pumping money into them.
When you give away precious seconds of your life to read a reply from JayJuanGee:
