All posts made by davidgdg in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 3063413 (copy this link) (by davidgdg) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):

Quote from: kickinyou on September 02, 2013, 11:36:38 AM
I am getting worried about gox, i still have cash on gox are it worth to buy bitcoin and transfer it to another exange now ?
I know i am late .

There is no real sign of the spread between Gox and the other exchanges increasing. It seems fairly stable at the 8% to 12% range. I wouldn't expect anything to change much until/unless they get sued in Japan. So no I wouldn't panic. Just place an order at a level you are happy with.



2. Post 6973113 (copy this link) (by davidgdg) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):

Quote from: Syke on May 27, 2014, 04:02:47 PM
It is a much more lucrative and "safe" vehicle for scams than the classical ones -- stolen credit cards, counterfeit cash, phony viagra, nigerian heirlooms, penny stocks, ponzi funds, ...

Wrong. Do you even have any idea how profitable just credit card fraud is? The credit card fraud in a single year alone absolutely dwarfs the entire bitcoin ecosystem. And this goes on every year, non stop. You obviously have no clue what you're talking about. Credit cards basically have their private keys printed on the front of the card. Every time you use a credit card you are at risk of having it stolen. Bitcoin actually reduces fraud. You can purchase anything from anywhere, and not ever risk your private key being taken during the purchase. A merchant can accept bitcoin from any customer throughout the world and never have to worry about chargebacks.

Sorry, I can't handle your idiotic comments anymore. Welcome to my ignore list.

Indeed. US$ 11 billion was lost in credit card fraud last year. To that you can probably add ten times that spent on fraud prevention.



3. Post 7685519 (copy this link) (by davidgdg) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):

Quote from: medialab101 on July 05, 2014, 09:02:11 AM
bfxdata.com shows USD swaps just jumped by 1.5 million to 30.5 million
best swap offer now 0.4475 %/day

Beginner question: does this mean that it's now expensive to go long?


Yes. And it means that a lot of traders on Finex are either a crazy gamblers or super bullish on BTC. Or more likely both.

BTC swap rate demand is at 0.0016% (for going short on BTC)

USD swap rate demand is at 0.175% (for going long on BTC)

That's a hundred fold difference in interest rates. Incredible. Has it always been like this?



4. Post 7686304 (copy this link) (by davidgdg) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):

Quote from: chriswilmer on July 05, 2014, 09:18:19 AM
bfxdata.com shows USD swaps just jumped by 1.5 million to 30.5 million
best swap offer now 0.4475 %/day

Beginner question: does this mean that it's now expensive to go long?


Yes. And it means that a lot of traders on Finex are either a crazy gamblers or super bullish on BTC. Or more likely both.

BTC swap rate demand is at 0.0016% (for going short on BTC)

USD swap rate demand is at 0.175% (for going long on BTC)

That's a hundred fold difference in interest rates. Incredible. Has it always been like this?


Is it really that incredible though? I mean... think about what it means to borrow bitcoins and pay back with interest. It's a very different commitment than borrowing US dollars!

Agreed and interestingly, the BTC daily swap rate works out at 0.6% per year which is very close to the gold lease rate of 0.4% per year. So I get that part. But then why is the US dollar borrowing rate so insanely high?



5. Post 7693611 (copy this link) (by davidgdg) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):

Quote from: nrd525 on July 05, 2014, 08:42:33 PM
bfxdata.com shows USD swaps just jumped by 1.5 million to 30.5 million
best swap offer now 0.4475 %/day

Beginner question: does this mean that it's now expensive to go long?


Yes. And it means that a lot of traders on Finex are either a crazy gamblers or super bullish on BTC. Or more likely both.

BTC swap rate demand is at 0.0016% (for going short on BTC)

USD swap rate demand is at 0.175% (for going long on BTC)

That's a hundred fold difference in interest rates. Incredible. Has it always been like this?


It's almost always been like this.  There have been a couple times that BTC rates went up enough to be worthwhile lending.  I have no clue why people are lending money out at 2% APR on Bitfinex - as that assumes a very low risk of hacking/fraud/regulation/bankruptcy.  I'd estimate this risk at least at 5% or more.

Actually it's lower than that. It works out at 0.5% p.a. simple interest. Presumably there is no just no demand to go short on BTC. Not altogether surprising I suppose.  Historically it hasn't been a great strategy.
The interesting question is whether the dollar interest rate earned by lenders justifies (1) the various solvency/hacking/regulatory risks and (2) the opportunity cost of lending out the dollars rather than buying BTC. I suppose it depends upon your expectations of what BTC will do in the short to medium term.



6. Post 7766534 (copy this link) (by davidgdg) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):

Quote from: dakota neat on July 10, 2014, 09:28:05 AM
The reason for the current downtrend are big mining companies constantly cashing out which is quite profitable atm.

This doesn't amount to very much. Annual new coins are only about 10% of stock so downwards price pressure from mining sales can't account for more than about 1% per month falls.

 I think this is just normal market volatility. Up a bit. Down a bit. Up a bit. Down a bit. Who the hell knows why  Wink