Is this a short at any point? What if the following apply:

-Other better short term trading opportunities do not exist
-No counter-party risk

The risk in this trade is that crypto winter is somehow avoided, this would take:

-Massively bullish news events.
-A fourth wave of speculation.

Both of these are long shots. Most governments are opposed to bitcoin, the ones that are not naturally move slowly and cautiously through bureaucratic institutions. Technical developments in BTC are limited and only have a small impact on its real use case (speculation). Smart money isn't loading into something that is crashing from a 10,000% run-up. The pool of dumb retail money is finite, you can go from 1% >10% of the population knowing about something. Going from 50%>80% is orders of magnitude more difficult.

How much time is left on the clock for this? This was the super kitty bounce, 2-3 more weeks?

Exchange risk was always rightly a huge factor in evaluating the return on trading the during the 11 and 13 cycles. How much risk are you assigning to Gemini, Coinbase, Kraken type of exchanges now?

A crash to 5k seems like the most certain trade you are advocating right now. Since you will have money tied up on exchanges anyway why not short on Kraken?

Your bitphysics model predicts the price will mimic 2014, like a bouncing ball? It so this next bounce would be like the current glade, with a high volume spike somewhere around <5k showing the reversal, a failed climb back to 10k, and then final bleed out to 3k (ideally)?

Do you expect your trading strategy (buying volume breakouts from dips) to continue working if another cycle appears in 202x?

What % of traders have the ability to derive alpha from first principles in crypto? How does this compare to stocks?

Is your ideal play for the next 3 years to find promising blocktree (radix?) projects and load in during strong overall crypto cynicism?

What signals will give clues about whether another BTC cycle in line with the past is starting vs BTC being finished and any pumps being limited?

My original questions were not fun, leaving is about style. NEW QUESTION DECK:


>Preferred method for swatting away the guilt of self enrichment on the backs of people who call even when shown the nuts?

>Recommended approach for those too dumb to win trading on their own yet greedy/rich enough to stick with it?

>Most reliable future indicator that ETH clowns have accepted it was all an illusion?

https://i.imgur.com/pCvwxwS.png

TERA future visions from early Feb, do you see it as being at the pink arrow?

Chart seemed to catch the movements pretty well, all the main thrusts were pretty close to fitting. It doesn't seem like anything has changed structurally, it's still in a glade until it looks down, and time is running out. Future options from here:

- Massive volume run up past 11, this would allow a chance at a new dead cat high and buy another 2-4 weeks

- Sideways for a few days or weeks and then crash again

Need glade experts to inline post/critique latest meme.

Guesses on next power bounce (less magnitude than Feb 6) price and volume?

What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies

I see where you are coming from, winning in trading mean ruthlessly rational analysis, combined with understanding what move the market from first principles. I would have done enormously better if I applied my own principles better to my own trading. You should try to destroy every idea and 'feeling' you have from every possible angle. I think if you had tried this you would have seen the holes in your trading strategy sooner.

Next bounce plays out like the original glade, just scaled down slightly?

Buying/Short Closing Guide:

-Wait for a fall of at least 50-70% off the bounce (4-6k)
-Switch vol to 12hr and look for a spike that recalls Feb 6

Let it run back up to 8.5k

-Wait for a fall of at least 50-70%
-Enjoy life during 4 years of winter

News = almost 0 relevance to the price

In a dump the pope himself could canonize any one who buys and not move the price up an inch. Only exchange/country closures can move it on a dime, as that cuts off the money at the source.

Premise: Heading down to 5.x (Last area of significant support, 3.5k is just too much too soon right now)

Under bitphysics™ this means at least one material sized interim bounce on the way down. Anyone with a supportable plan to catch it?

I meant a bounce off of something like 6400 back up to 7400. Logic:

- People are paying 8k a coin right now = market is a long way from accepting that things are over
- Things aren't over = Traders will expect a bottom or bounce somewhere soon

Result is a bounce. The big one will be for the next sizable glade. On the way to this final glade it can't go straight down from 9k to 5k, it has to bounce somewhere along the way.

Duration:

Glade - 6 weeks
Glide -  6 months

Beginning:

Glade - 3 year record breaking volume after 70% decline
Glide  - ? Another volume bounce indicator somewhere around 5.5k ?

End

Glade - Attempts to bust past a 100% increase or reach any level that will credibly start a new bull run fizzle out (failing at 11.8 twice, then at 10 on the way down sealed it as over)
Glide -  ? Same as above, trying to get past 10k fails ?

Their mentality is spot-on. You can't convince these people to load in, they have to do if for themselves at the absolute peak. Almost everything said by these big bankers is trivially true, I think this explains the reactions from Dimon etc when BTC is brought up, it is a form of bemusement on their part that people cannot see something so obvious.

Scenario: New Years 2019
BTC Price: 3800

'Prime' Alts

ETH   .043   165
XRP    3k     .10
LTC    .008   30
BCH    .08    304
XMR   .015    57

I would consider these numbers as reflecting prices that held up pretty well.

Topics:

-Will any alts diverge significantly before the crash is over? A new bull run in 202x will see big winners that outperform, can any existing alts outperform (less relative loss counts) in a crash?

-Are these numbers reasonable? Is there any chance that a crash doesn't hurt alts more than BTC? They are all up way more this run in % terms, so simple thought is that they have much further to fall.

Lets get some bounce ideas:


'Standard View'

Last level of strong support from the past remaining is around 5500. Look for a reversal in this area.

Other Possibilities

Major liquidity withdrawal event occurs (Tether, big exchange closing, country closing)

-> Big event could push it down to cycle lows of 3k, if not for a while then certainly in a mega hammer candle

-> What else?

BTC as a payment method has almost never existed. It filled a niche for mid size grey market payments, that is about it. The idea of using it to buy coffee or houses was pushed by the incompetent/collusive.

For trading BTC and other coins don't even need to exist, the could just be abstract accounting ledger entries on centralized exchanges and the system as a whole would be much better. No wasted energy, contentious forks, etc.. The collective force projection of government is the only thing that can possibly have enough power to be trusted.

The drop got ahead of itself here? The price is anchored by the most recent traded price, that is all there really is with something like BTC. Mar 7 dump seemed to spook things. If destiny remains 5.5k, this mini pump could mirror something like Jan 17 or Feb 2. A run up to mid/hi 8s, then resume panic crash mode?

Can anyone come up with even a half-plausible explanation for the G20 to had any effect what-so-ever on the price?

They don't just all meet in a room, create and enforce global policy. At best it is small incremental amounts of policy coordination worked through each national government. This should be seen as .1% of the puzzle compared to the real action, the natural price cycles of waay way up, and what comes after..

I might need to adjust my models here, your explanations kind of make sense. Make-believe prices being swung be make-believe events, why not-

Reasons this cannot be a 2013 style double bubble:

A new run would require an infusion of fresh speculative money. The infrastructure cannot scale up quick enough for this to happen. Coinbase was the #1 app, how is it supposed to go up from there? It used to be wiring money to a shady loser card game exchange, now anyone with a bank account can move money in. Until you can buy it right on the Nasdaq or something it can't get any easier. When 30,000 people know about BTC you can go to 30 million. You can't go from 30 million to 30 billion, even 30% of the population having heard of it to 50% is an enormous step that is almost impossible.

Without fresh money to pay off old holders the price cannot continue to rise. Without the promise of new ATH there is no reason to buy.

No double bubble means the limit here was 11.7, and with that fallen it has probably moved down to 9.7. Tick Tock, when BTC looks down and isn't standing on the ground it has to go someplace solid, $5,500, then when it is getting up and looking around it sees it still didn't fall all the way.

:Wile-e-Coyote:

I'm only looking at things from a trading perspective. If people think a double top is within reach I would love to know why, if it happens I will be rekt.

There is a limit on how far you can disconnect fundamentals from trading. If someone can make a case for the price rising with inflows slowing down what is it? Once I make it to Jr member I promise to only post in a more enjoyable image-based meme form.

Are we back on track? Odds 7200 was the post glade bottom: 3/51

          





               

??

Bear Haters: I didn't draw this, save it for the real villain-

One more bounce at 6.8, when it can't break 8.x it's back down to the most wonderful night of bitcoin trading level, maybe Roger will return.

One more bounce incoming? It it too soon for it to be all over?

Glade never broke 12k, in relative terms it has been far below the same movement from '14. Glade 2.0 seems setup to be much more tame as well: Upward spikes are harder in a more mature market + More resistance overhead from the lower highs.

Running to 10k still possible?
5.5k was the classic support level from the past during the BCH scare, still highest number it can bounce off of after this glade?

Chart appears to have runout... 

Hard to argue rampant fanboy-ism isn't distasteful. My charts weren't even showing up until I paid BCT 20$, so there is perhaps a use for bitcoin.

Anyway, trading is about being a level ahead, like trolling, I am going to have to get my shit together here..

Has anything changed to make this not a bear market?

If this falls back down we have the height to crash to 5,500.

How is there $X00B? I would put total fiat that can 'flow' in and out at something around 10-20 billion.

3 billion tether
5 billion on USD exchanges
3-5 on JPY and KRW exchanges
3-5 Slushing around OTC desks

The next recession is a lock to come, no one knows just when.

All the talk of inflation, store of value, etc is meaningless next to wild price speculation. Recessions kill this sort of speculation and a bitter one would match up well with crypto winter lows somewhere around 19-21.

+1 Bring anonymint here, this is safe space.

I support diversity when it comes to Zionist conspiracies, Roach alone isn't a world I want to live in.

June 10th going down.

30% bounce off of 5,x00 a few weeks later to break it on the way up.


Working backwards from the 'ceiling' is the best way to find the low. Ceiling is the price it can hit without existing in a fresh bullrun (3 years away at best). Where do people put the current ceilings?

20 - ultimate level, out of the question currently
17 - last chance sell stop after the crash, hard to see it going here and stopping
12 - mythical 'resistance' for a 13 style double top, if it couldn't hit it on 2 glades it can't hit it
10 - glade 2.0 top
08 - likely where we are now, this will get shorted and dumped hard here

8k top means it needs to visit a support level well below it that people still believe strongly in, natural guess is the 5,500 level from the wonderous bcash night of magic.

Enforce KYC/AML rules that anyone with any clue of how the world works could see coming years ago.

What the hell does this volume decline mean?

-Not even Doanld will risk a wall
-LOL bleedout
-No volume bounce is possible, some anti gravity force I don't know about is out there

Bat signal intent was with an Adam West frame.


I do, but it would probably be better if anyone could trash the bear case I have put together here:


-Decreasing volume, reversal would require far greater volume, last vol spike for a bounce here was May 22, 40k (1d bfx). Feels like a reversal would need at least 3x this amount.

-Bid depth, not getting deeper, no base for a rally to build on. 10k coins to last high vol support zone from the past (5.5k, bfx)

-Bull trap shakeout pattern has not been violated. 17k, 12k, 10k, all ded. If the pattern continues this would be glade 3.0, it gets a smaller bounce (~25%) than 2.0 (50%) or 1.0 (100%). This lack of bounce is a reflection of the low volume being unable to charge things.

Dream spot here is a continuation on low volume to 8.2k or so, followed by a sharp fall that breaks this triangle everyone is watching and confirms the search for a bottom will continue.

Stop me before troll side pulls me in. Someone! please trash my trading approach here/

Bounce prediction I am not as sure on now.

Should we just assume bitmex traders are the opposite of right, so wrong, all the time?

Volume criticisms?

Where can a G3 with more power than G2 come from? The volume is so low, is it off of the accumulated drop from 10k at the top of G2?

2014 replay looks like a fall to fake bottom™ #1 @~4800, bounce it 6k, try again, bounce again. Then when it hits 6k this final time and has absolutely nowhere to go it's off to 3k for a real volume bounce.

Garph of most all legit exchanges combined.

WHy? Does:

The bid [in fiat, red] increases during the bubble (easy), and then stay about the same during the pop?

The ask [in fiat, blue] slowly falls?

Totally cool and plausible reasons traders will jump on that could allow Glade 3.0:

 -The bottom was proven to be in around 6k, triple bounce

 -Bear market has been going forever, 6 months is a reasonable amount of time for a turnaround to begin

 -2013 style dip double top incoming

 -It was never a bear market, just a dip along the way up, clearly now is the time to buy

 -Whales hoping to pump it up but totally not for the purpose of selling higher and creating pockets of liquidity to sell into if it did come back down

 -FOMO army that rides the trend back up

Theory: As the market grows in absolute value the time needed for the bear market process increases. This is due to the much larger number of players and money in each subsequent cycle. As an easy thought experiment, BTC can crash and blow up in just weeks if only a few hundred people are speculating in it. On the other extreme, if BTC is owned by everyone, the cycles would match economic ones with major changes taking decades or more to work through.

Application: 2018 crash will take longer than the prior 2 cycles and (excepting total BTC failure) will not be as severe in total loss percentage. This would predict a bottom around late 2019 in the 3k range.

Current Trade: To match the predicted timescale and magnitude it is likely we need another glade (3.0) to take it back to 8k+. This will take up another 2+ months, setting up the stage for a fall to fake bottom #2 (4.5k area). A few bounces off this area and then a final fall into the 3ks. From here it can bounce and slowly bleedout out as pessimism reaches a peak.

External Events: ICO failure and enforcement, continued regulation and exchange failure, and most of all the coming next business cycle global recession would set up things for several years in the early 20's of bottomed out prices. This would be the time to find promising alts using new technology.

Anyone can get lucky once. Next stage:?

What is going on with these HitBTC books? They are as deep as Bitfinex now. Is all this legit?

Does anyone have a link to the post about the original Winklevos ETF rejection and how some traders opened big positions on Mex while simultaneously pushing the Finex market? They only had to trade a relatively small amount to lock in a lot of profit from the expected volatility event.

::Pretend to be Tera Post::


Correct


Bid has fully stalled out again and is now falling: Kraken lower now than at 4k, Bitfinex bid cloe to all time low, Bitstamp in decline since 8k


This appears to be happening, event sequence:

Price crashes to support at 3k
Whales frontrun the 'standard' 22 month pump cycle and expected halvening run
Everyone else piles in
Alts rotate into BTC to get it up even higher
Price fails below the ATH because this time, unlike all the other supercycles, something is missing >> there is no new money this time, no new countries, exchanges, groups of suckers to buy in.

Price now has to follow the standard crash model, the current descending triangle will break down to support at 7.x (soft) or 5.x (stronger), plenty of bull traps along the way down to grinding on solid support (3k)

I'm not Tera (


Though I would like to summon him back-

What we know about Tera

IQ > 140
Unmatched all time accuracy calling it up and down
Actual understanding of fundamental and technical aspects that move the market

Unknown

Gender
Time of return

Tera left because the post crash volatility was over (sold at 18.8, bought at 7, sold at 11, bought back in and left) and the value of trading went down. Market appears to be entering a new phase of crash volatility, the same patterns are going to play out again. The long run was the only uncertainty, as of right now it is clear no new emergent sources of fresh money have shown up.

I actually sent the Tera2 account the private keys to $1k USD of XMR as a thank you when he was still posting, coins never moved, hard to catch this guy.

Correct Tera calls:

2013 Pump and top
2013 Crash and bull trap to 700
2013 Bleed out

Predicted wave to 20k back in 2013

Said that new US exchanges would fuel a new run before the 2017 parabola started

2017 Called multiple crashes as temporary corrections
2017 Called for longs on Bcash (before its wild pump, sold at .5 like me)
2017 Picked the ETH ratio bottom
2017 Played Doge coin perfect
2017 Called the top within a few % (sold at 18.8k)

Called the bounce to 17k as the worst time to buy, last chance suckers entry
Predicted a fall to 5-8k followed by a 100% bounce to 12k
Followed by a new fall to 5.5 and then a bounce to 10
Called for a supercycle low of probably 3k


The only area he was unsure about was the longer term: if a supercycle 4.0 would hit and push it to a new ATH. I am calling bubble 4.0 as topped out at 14k and a new bear market has now begun. Long term the odds have dramatically increased for 20k to remain as the forever ATH.

*forgot a prediction*

2017 JJG will hodl and have 1/5 the coins he could have had if he listened

JJG always struck me as a perfect match for the standard 'voice' of BCT:

-Weak/Broken English
-Inability to control emotions

My guess has always been:

-Lower status younger Southern/Eastern European
-Missed out on BTC early days
-Sees no way out besides a belief in BTC hitting 100k+

Read the first 100 threads in speculation and it's as though they are all authored by the same poster.

He almost missed the 2014 bull trap, but, reversed as the bid filled up and caught it

Called for support and multiple bounces at 5,500. Actual result of course was 6k

Sold at 8k and thought the bubble was over. Jumped back in when indicators came back at 10k or so, missed that 20%

Suggested a possible double top to 20k again, thought 16k at best was more likely though. It actually made it to 17k

Thought the bounce from 6k could hit 13.5k, only made it to 12k

Didn't expect Alts to blow up as high after the April BGC (Bcash to 1800, ETH to 800, lolz) as they did

Suggested the mid 2018 bounce that stopped at 10k could stop at 10k, OR, possibly run up to 13k in a super bull trap

Called for 20k by 2016 back in 2013, took until 2017 instead

Didn't trust Tether, thought it might blow up. Tether now only partial-backed and bailed out by alt exchanges, still works


A number of others like these

Still a bit soon for the triangle breakdown, but it won't be long now. There is NO-NEW-MONEY coming into the system, the current (14k top) supercycle will be the first one to create a lower high. One possibility is a super descending triangle (sloping from 20k, touching 14k, maybe 9k for the next lower high) with 3k as horizontal support. BTC does not pay a dividend, it has no actual human use utility > if you don't sell you may as well throw the private keys away, there is no difference.

Flip the chart to linear to realize the actual scale of new money that has to come in for a new ATH to be hit. Usage is lower. Search interest is 5% of the 20k peak. Institutions have regulated, secure methods to invest and of course don't care. The only possibility is a new army of retail suckers, tell me where they will come from (without the media hype of new ATH's to pull them in) and I would love to go long.