All posts made by harrymmmm in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 12889125 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
With a $60 range in price over exchanges, it's clear arbitrage isn't working well for whatever reason.
Does anyone know how/whether Liquid will affect this?
Or are the arbitrage problems in a completely different class?
2.
Post 12889178 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
With a $60 range in price over exchanges, it's clear arbitrage isn't working well for whatever reason.
Does anyone know how/whether Liquid will affect this?
Or are the arbitrage problems in a completely different class?
it takes ~1hour to move coin
a week to move fiat
and there's only so much traders can have in reserves
arbitrage is not instant.
If that's the entire problem, then Liquid should help, right?
I admit to not being clear about the fiat side of things. Must read more I think.
3.
Post 12889937 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Buying in Chinese Yuan, selling in USD. They aren't buying Bitcoin, they are just using Bitcoin to buy Dollars. To avoid capital controls.
And when the last coin leaves China, y'all better pray there's another totalitarian regime somewhere doing something equally evil and stupid or demand will dry up like a bull turd in the Mohave.
Is there really a time when a totalitarian regime isn't doing something equally stupid as implementing capital controls and currency manipulation? Rinse and repeat.
Sure.
We've all known for years that bitcoin would shine in crises. We've seen it proven a few times now.
Nothing new about it.
Impossible to predict and exciting to watch tho!
4.
Post 12890073 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
-snip-
We've all known for years that bitcoin would shine in crises. We've seen it proven a few times now.
Nothing new about it.
Impossible to predict and exciting to watch tho!
How do you mean? As in "ain't no way Danny Brewster or Ukyo Jon or friedcat or TF or [...] could've sleezed away with millions in fiat, but Bitcoin really came through," that sort of shine?
Those scams will happen with fiat and bitcoin. Noone shines there.
If I wasn't clear, I meant real crises.
Usually government created, maybe long term, economic/financial crises.
Examples are bank closures and forfeitures, monetary inflation, capital controls, embargos, etc.
Not sure how to package those into a single word other than to call them crises (some short term, some long term).
Which bitcoin will always shine in.
5.
Post 12891415 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
-snip-
We've all known for years that bitcoin would shine in crises. We've seen it proven a few times now.
Nothing new about it.
Impossible to predict and exciting to watch tho!
How do you mean? As in "ain't no way Danny Brewster or Ukyo Jon or friedcat or TF or [...] could've sleezed away with millions in fiat, but Bitcoin really came through," that sort of shine?
Those scams will happen with fiat and bitcoin. Noone shines there.
If I wasn't clear, I meant real crises.
Usually government created, maybe long term, economic/financial crises.
Examples are bank closures and forfeitures, monetary inflation, capital controls, embargos, etc.
Not sure how to package those into a single word other than to call them crises (some short term, some long term).
Which bitcoin will always shine in.
Well no, bitcoin lends itself to scam and crime particularly well, far better than fiat. That's why everyone from kidnappers to pedos to ransomwhare haxxt0rs are starting to use bitcoin. And that's why scams which got burnt down in the
fiat real world sometime around the turn of (last) century are getting a new lease on life in bitcon world.
But you say you don't mean those? So tell me, which crises did Bitcoin shine in, specifically? Since "We've seen it proven a few times now"?
You have trouble with reading? Or just comprehension?
I listed the ones I meant. You quoted them above.
Although you've snipped the context of my original reply, do remember it was in the context of capital controls, won't ya?
6.
Post 13162712 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):

Chinese traders and one western trader

7.
Post 13180498 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
how much do signature campaigns work, because if bitcoin takes off even a little and we get newer people im sure it would be worthwhile.
Mine pays 700 micros per post. Restrictions are 1) a limit on the amount of posts, 2) post in the right forums, 3) post must be over a certain minimum size, etc.
I just thought that it was crazy to not take advantage of this when I was posting anyway.
Unfortunately you get lots of people just posting rubbish for the payout (still...you do get lots of people to liven up your forum stats

)
8.
Post 13181721 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
I just thought that it was crazy to not take advantage of this when I was posting anyway.
There is a cost. See _my_ sig.
You too.
Luckily, the 700 micros far exceeds the value of any credibility loss I may suffer in your direction.

Mirth aside, I prefer to maintain the illusion that my comments stand on their own, and do not require jbreher 'credibility points'.
9.
Post 13255587 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
open bazaar almost ready

it's been almost ready for six months. I'll believe it when it happens.
Yep. I ran it for the first 12 months, thru all it's network indecision, refactorings etc.
It ended up a shadow of it's former darkmarket self, unable even to do Tor.
Not expecting much better in the new release except maybe a better GUI.
OTOH, in the background and relatively stealthed, there's bitmarket which seems to just work as expected (Tor, escrow working, etc.).
Disclaimer: i haven't tried bitmarket...
https://github.com/AyrA/BitMarket
10.
Post 13255859 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
open bazaar almost ready

it's been almost ready for six months. I'll believe it when it happens.
Yep. I ran it for the first 12 months, thru all it's network indecision, refactorings etc.
It ended up a shadow of it's former darkmarket self, unable even to do Tor.
Not expecting much better in the new release except maybe a better GUI.
OTOH, in the background and relatively stealthed, there's bitmarket which seems to just work as expected (Tor, escrow working, etc.).
Disclaimer: i haven't tried bitmarket...
https://github.com/AyrA/BitMarketit's not supposed to be a market place specific to anything. the point is that people can use it for whatever they want, not just drugs and fake passports.
The (better) point is that, without Tor, people can't use it for whatever they want

11.
Post 13302853 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
Really the technical analysis works to foresee the future bitcoin price? I don't think so, and there is an increasing number of specialist that consider the technical analysis as a set of superstitions and subjective beliefs rather than an objective method to understand the market behavior.
No.
MOST people try & fail to predict the price that way. Anybody can draw lines on a graph & say that's what is going to happen to the price.
TA can't predict pumps caused by major mainstream news or whales mesding about with the market.
If everyone sees the same pattern it kind of becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
True.
IMHO, technical (chart) analysis should be seen as a messaging system amongst traders, allowing them each to know what the others will do. On seeing, for example, a double top forming, they're all sitting there with fingers trembling over the sell button, and eventually a random dip causes them all to click.
In this, they can act like a cartel, increasing their power (to change the price) like a voting bloc does.
An unpredictable pricemeister whale upsets that applecart tho

12.
Post 13699955 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
Oh crap.
Did Mike Hearne come back?
Or are the pitchfork crowd off their meds again?
13.
Post 13857361 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.43h):
Why is it a bad thing?
If all miners agree on that well it's more or less the only thing that can be done no?
No, you are right, if this is what the consensus is, then thats what it is.
I'm worried that it seems the impetus is to cut it off before it can be established by the means with which it was originally intended to be reached - by running the software of your choice.
Simply put you can run any software you choose, but when you start screwing with the consensus code where the value lies, you better have a damn good reason and 99% of people backing you up. If you don't, you can expect this kind of a shitstorm.
14.
Post 13980977 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ. This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.
Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.
1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M). So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.
ok. I see where you're going wrong.
The equation of exchange is a real identity. So you can actually put anything you like in for those variables, but when you do, you get a certain interpretation of the rest.
In your first reference to it above, you used the money supply creation rate instead of the money supply. As a result, you're looking at a strange definition of 'velocity'. Yours is something like 'average number of transactions per CREATED money unit per unit time' - that's just plain weird.
In the second reference you made above, you used a more normal M which gives a meaningful 'velocity' to discuss. But in this reference, you've continued the wrong idea about M from the first reference. There's no decrease in M as a result of halvings.
15.
Post 13987139 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ. This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.
Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.
1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M). So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.
ok. I see where you're going wrong.
The equation of exchange is a real identity. So you can actually put anything you like in for those variables, but when you do, you get a certain interpretation of the rest.
In your first reference to it above, you used the money supply creation rate instead of the money supply. As a result, you're looking at a strange definition of 'velocity'. Yours is something like 'average number of transactions per CREATED money unit per unit time' - that's just plain weird.
In the second reference you made above, you used a more normal M which gives a meaningful 'velocity' to discuss. But in this reference, you've continued the wrong idea about M from the first reference. There's no decrease in M as a result of halvings.
Ok, that makes sense. Thank you. So let's look at M as meaning the full 21 million bitcoins ever to be mined. M is constant, but as we approach this limit, we also approach the V limit of 1GB blocks or whatever. At some point in the future around 2040 at the latest, there will be no more real movement on the left hand side of the equation, right?
That's a limit on Q, not V.
What would happen in that scenario is that since the transaction rate (Q) is limited, the transaction sizes (P) would need to increase. That results in V increasing on the left (since you decided M was constant) to keep the identity.
It's interesting to look carefully at these kinds of limits. I've always thought that's why economic models break down (apart from stupidity of course)

16.
Post 13988556 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
you think they will let me come to this thing
i am after all the CEO of bitcoin's cheerleading department, am i not?

I'm starting to think you're not as crazy bipolar as i was recently thinking after i originally thought you were ok.

But lay off the evil stuff, ok?
POEple - facebook.com
POEple. 64 likes. Denizens of the deceased online communities of Portal of Evil and POEnews, and the still (Nov 2014 anyway) POEtv. Possibly to include...
17.
Post 14003150 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
Adam told you it wasn't. Close to a month ago, but don't mention that,
'Course (iirc) he also offered a fix for the issue, but don't mention that.
Yep, better to see if the angry mob can be used to fuck with the price a bit more. /s
18.
Post 14003214 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
Bitcoin Core 0.12 is officially released. I'm glad I can now ban the few 'classic' nodes that try to promote bitcoin altcoin fork.
Core is so concerned about node dropoff that they now want to ban any node not running their code. Makes sense.
Was that an example of being constrained by ethics. Haha.
That ban option is there to disable misbehaving nodes afaics.
Gotta admit tho, it IS handy for banning classic nodes. I just did a couple...
19.
Post 14003556 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
Damn! Blocks are fucking full! I've got and important tx waiting for its third confirmation for ages ><
Not sure if newbie or troll, but i'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Third conf has absolutely nothing to do with full blocks.
20.
Post 14003601 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
ok, so you've dialed back on the "conspiracy" and doubled-down on "conflict of interest" ... now would it blow your mind too much if the "conflict of interest" was a misinterpretation of the fact that blockstream founders understood the technical limits of bitcoin before anyone else and decided to build a company knowing they had to build within those limitations?
and chumps like Brian Armstrong never understood the tech too deeply but knew he wanted to make mega-bucks and would do whatever it took?
Nailed it.

21.
Post 14003939 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
O.k. Well, maybe I do not understand the facts, enough. I thought that classic mined less than 10 blocks, so far...
And, if there are like 10 blocks a day mined by classic, then maybe it could become more significant, no?
Sayin' this coz I didn't know it until now ...
My core node's debug log shows the number of blocks mined over version 4 in the last 1000.
At the moment it's 8
edit: oops. that was a screwup.
It's 8 of the last 100 blocks. Not as useful as i thought.
22.
Post 14008459 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
Adam told you it wasn't. Close to a month ago, but don't mention that,
'Course (iirc) he also offered a fix for the issue, but don't mention that.
Yep, better to see if the angry mob can be used to fuck with the price a bit more. /s
if there's an angry mob it's not because of 1 small oversight.
I was and still am perfectly willing to support segwit.
i'm angry because, we had this agreement and now it's falling apart, who's making it fall apart? Blockstream guys...
BTW, has it been confirmed that Blockstream can/have veto the agreement???
Grrr. I had a bad day yesterday. I meant 'peter todd told you', not 'adam told you', of course. Lol.
Sry if that caused confusion in your reply. I'll assume it didn't...
I'm surprised at your mood swings tho. You do seem angry and unreasonable lately.
I see you joining the group who mislead as you did on the image i quoted above. There's a lot of fud here lately ... just thought I'd 'out' something rather obvious.
Maybe you're just angry, impatient, and not checking your facts like you used to.
Re the agreement:
I'm not sure it could be considered a contract in any sense. It was more like a memorandum of understanding, so 'falling apart' isn't that much of a betrayal. If indeed it is even falling apart.
I can understand adam's signature. He's a rep of a company that's guaranteed the employess free speech on the bitcoin topics, so kinda hard to sign off as the company prez. I'm sure he tried to get away with the 'individual' sig, but eventually was obliged to change it to prez. Understandable I think. It was a difficult call and may still cause trouble back at blockstream.
Maaku's comments just reinforce that.
The overall view tho, is that many players signed it, so there's some kind of commitment to modify the roadmap with a decent consideration of a hard fork in some months. That's better than you had (from core devs) before this agreement, right? Previously, there was just a vague mention of a future hard fork to clean up some stuff, rebase segwit's merkle tree, etc.
Not what either side wanted, but better overall than what could have happened.
23.
Post 14008524 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
...and we're still above $420. Dafuq

bitcoin = #bizarroworld
watch it crumble when its confirmed the some of the Blockstream guys have veto power.
It did have weasel-words in it to that effect.
It had to though. Adam has no power to force even blockstream employees to go along with it.
So, imho, you can assume that's confirmed already. Doesn't mean it will happen that way tho.
Up to the point where that decision is necessary, I imagine a lot of discussion will take place inside and outside blockstream

24.
Post 14010352 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
if you small blocker truly believe the shit you say you should from a group that wishes to lower block limit to 0.5MB.
you'll get more decentralization and security, for everything else there's the Lighting Network promiseland.
I know that you know that most people want bigger blocks - sooner or later.
Why keep saying stuff like this?
25.
Post 14010385 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
This proposal is the only ray of hope I see for overcoming the duel problems of scaling and miner concentration.
Heheh.
If only it was a duel problem we could quickly solve it at 20 paces. So easy

26.
Post 15196318 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Gold does not have a password and its heavy!!! And with that I end my argument.
LOL.
It's always fun to meet people that can't imagine a world without Internet.
Gold does not have a password and that is good, you can't forget it!
Gold is heavy at current price. When it appreciates x100 it will not be so heavy!
'Course that's not counting the equipment to measure and assay micrograms of gold for payments. That could be quite heavy, expensive, power hungry, ... ridiculous actually.
27.
Post 15196519 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Gold does not have a password and its heavy!!! And with that I end my argument.
LOL.
It's always fun to meet people that can't imagine a world without Internet.
Gold does not have a password and that is good, you can't forget it!
Gold is heavy at current price. When it appreciates x100 it will not be so heavy!
'Course that's not counting the equipment to measure and assay micrograms of gold for payments. That could be quite heavy, expensive, power hungry, ... ridiculous actually.
You prefer the heavy, expensive, power hungry equipment to mine 'digital' gold, or the heavy, expensive, power hungry equipment to guard your hot wallet, or the heavy, expensive, power hungry equipment to guard your password from being stolen?...
Crypto money is a hype. If some crisis event causes Internet fragmentation this hype is dead, dude. Face it!
Of course I would. Those things don't need to be carried to every transaction. right?
The best you could imagine with gold transactions in meatspace would be that every merchant had a way to assay and weigh the damn stuff. Bitcoin enables those things to be checked with software.
tl;dr: bitcoin is really light!

28.
Post 15352542 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
intersting that brexit could really happen against all that mainstream media etc.
this has a long-term influence on world econonmy, stability of eu and also gold/btc price.
True.
If this is the start of the unwashed masses waking up, not automatically trusting media and pollies thinking for themselves, then this is a watershed moment in history. And starting in the UK; who woulda thunk?
29.
Post 15503580 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Why does the poll have the options <999 and <1000

Look again

My mistake.
Adam is such a klutz tho, right?
I'm expecting the price to get to 999 or 1000 and i'm sooo confused how to vote!

30.
Post 15527193 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
tradertard-induced and cartel manipulated volatility was expected.
ddos on all sites to assist dump makes sense (though i admit i didn't expect that).
just hold on and the halving demand/supply economics will take over eventually.
It's a new economy now.

31.
Post 15527803 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Does anyone still think it's not an artificial drop?
Haha.
Totally organic drop based on fundamentals.
The DDoS's happened at multiple sites purely because of extra traffic.
/s
32.
Post 15659806 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth
and so i say:
Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.
Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next cloasest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.
33.
Post 15666059 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth
and so i say:
Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.
Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next closest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.
does it really make any difference if the next possible outcome is chosen by true randomness or a predetermined set of random?
the end result is the same, we get an immutable chain of events which no one can really control.
i guess your suggestion that the future cannot be predicted because of the true randomness factor.
it would be interesting to understand how they have determined that true randomness actually exists...
not sure what you mean by a 'predetermined set of random', but I'll assume you mean a fixed probability distribution .
Either way, the outcome is not as you said: 'for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.'
The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.
34.
Post 15666590 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.
Then surely you know of Sean Carroll
Of course!
he's one of my heroes, along with brian greene, greg maxwell, pieter wuille, peter todd ...

35.
Post 15861342 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
It's going to be way more interesting when BitFinex opens it doors again.I expect a bankrun.
Actually, you are probably correct that there is quite a lot of market anticipation regarding this whole bitfinex reopening matter, and of course a central fear of Bitfinex would be to experience a run on the bank, so I think that the way that bitfinex opens up and possibly even further specifics regarding the extent to which they plan to allow for the trading of Bitfinex tokens could assist in attempting to dissuade a run on the bank... to allow for withdraws, but to also create various incentives and disincentives.
In their reopening, Bitfinex should be focusing on attempts to communicate and create incentives for folks to stay and using their exchange rather than creating disincentives for account holders to leave. The creation of incentives will inspire greater confidence in their solvency - at least their short term solvency.
Folks may be concerned about the long term solvency of Bitfinex, but it does seem that long term solvency matters as much as short and medium term solvency. If Bitfinex can create the impression that they are solvent in the short term and in the medium term, then folks will continue to use their services, and if folks continue to use their services, the long term solvency becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, at least the impression of having such long term solvency.
In the short term, Bitfinex may even allow for fee free trading for a period of time after their reopening (maybe one or two months of fee free), which seems to have been the practice of several other exchanges after they experience significant levels of disrupted services. In that regard, acting anxiously to withdraw funds from Bitfinex may be the less profitable act (even though perhaps the more prudent choice, depending on your personal risk profile and depending on how matters play out).
Possibly within the next day or two we will find out a few more details from Bitfinex regarding their opening strategy - and maybe we will even be able to experience a bit of bitfinex trading on or before Wednesday (am I being too optimistic?)
They'd be crazy to reenable withdrawals prior to a complete-sounding report on the hack. Why it occurred, how it has been fixed and why it can't happen again in the next few hours. Lol.
Otherwise, yes. A bank run.
36.
Post 15952803 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Someone care to speculate what price would reach BTC if a random guy (or agency) decides to buy 1 million?
It's important to, at least, specify how quickly this is to be done.
If it's immediate, I think he'd exhaust exchanges' liquidity and then be forced to OTC at premium prices.
If it's a slower purchase, he'd lose a lot in slippage, and bitcoin would go to the moon

Not sure which method is cheapest for the random guy.
37.
Post 15993922 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
We're probably inside a simulation being trolled by an artificial super-intelligence. Just go with it.

Heheh. I like that idea.
If it was true, we'd be sure the intelligence would want to monitor his simulation, so there's an access mechanism for him.
we'd find it somewhere in the quantum information aspects of the universe.
Given they suck a lot of info in, maybe black holes do 'lose' a bit of it after all.

38.
Post 16111471 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
bfx is up to $0.55 now.
bitfinex is redeeming them - something like 1.2% converted to usd today

39.
Post 16619324 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Imo, purchasing a Trezor shoud be a obligation for every long-term bitcoiner.

Only me and bitcoin core can manage my private key ...
I have to agree with paashaas here.
When my trezor arrived all the cold storage worries went out the door.
The worries about the pc being keylogged vanished.
It now even handles keys and processing for password management on my various subscription sites, and acts as a 2fa device completely controlled by me.
Very nice and well worth the $100.
I do wish the site had a warrant canary tho, so i could have more trust in the firmware. but hey, it's better than anything else out there.
40.
Post 16619534 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Imo, purchasing a Trezor shoud be a obligation for every long-term bitcoiner.

Only me and bitcoin core can manage my private key ...
I have to agree with paashaas here.
When my trezor arrived all the cold storage worries went out the door.
The worries about the pc being keylogged vanished.
It now even handles keys and processing for password management on my various subscription sites, and acts as a 2fa device completely controlled by me.
Very nice and well worth the $100.
I do wish the site had a warrant canary tho, so i could have more trust in the firmware. but hey, it's better than anything else out there.
Is the private key stored on flash memory inside the trezor?
yes
What happens if the trezor's memory becomes faulty like a flash drive's eventually does? Do you lose your bitcoins unless you have backed up your private key? I don't trust any one storage system with my private keys because they all become faulty eventually.
It's an HD scheme, so once you save the master seed (24 words), you're guaranteed to be able to restore the wallet fully anywhere that can handle the format (new trezor, various popular wallets, etc).
And, of course, saving that seed is the FIRST thing you do with any new trezor. Backing it up in multiple very safe places is also a no-brainer.
41.
Post 16759485 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Ok, taking my seat again for the next round incoming.
Hey tok _ n
I was thinking about our recent interaction, and I am really thinking that if you were to consider a kind of weighted average to the trade volumes of exchanges, then that could be more satisfactory overall...
I've thought about this in the past too. I tried to model it as a supply/demand system.
I failed miserably, but the journey was enlightening

1) there is some actual faked volume easily visible watching trades, verified by people who should know etc. This makes modelling (and therefore weighting) very inexact.
2) as in all demand/supply models you either take into account some external resource limitations, or you accept an infinite demand when the price is zero. This means the zero transaction fee volumes are limited by unknowable things like traders' bandwidth, bot speeds, exchange processing limitations, etc. Weighting this is pretty much unknown (and even if you could, it wouldn't last long).
3) where the fee is above some threshold, it starts to become doable. I was looking at something like measured volume = a 'base' volume scaled up by some measure of the jiggling around of the price by traders with the start and end price over an analysis period (volume bar times). That base volume was to be just the volume 'swept' out under the effective supply/demand curves at the start of the analysis as the price moved (no retracements) from the starting price p0 to the end price p1 in the analysis period. I finally realized that the offered volume would, itself, probably be dependent on the fees (?).
The scaling up would need to be done by adding randomness, restricting possible transactions to those that actually made a profit greater than their fee plus maybe a factor expressing the drop in demand for transactions simply because of the fee (a trader sentiment kind of thing). The effective demand/supply profile would probably need to be approximated by the exchange order book.
I gave up looking at all the bad approximations needed in that lot. Lol.
TL;DR zero fee volumes can't be used sensibly unless you model those fake and external influences. Different fee volumes probably can't be modelled the way I described but maybe the basic idea is usable.
42.
Post 16761055 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Ok, taking my seat again for the next round incoming.
Hey tok _ n
I was thinking about our recent interaction, and I am really thinking that if you were to consider a kind of weighted average to the trade volumes of exchanges, then that could be more satisfactory overall...
I've thought about this in the past too. I tried to model it as a supply/demand system.
I failed miserably, but the journey was enlightening

I understand that there has been various discussion about this point of weighted trade volume, and I understand that it could be quite a bit of work to attempt to establish any kind of exact system, and therefore, probably good in concept, even though in practice we may want to merely attempt a kind of ballparking of such weighted trade volume considerations.
TL;DR zero fee volumes can't be used sensibly unless you model those fake and external influences. Different fee volumes probably can't be modelled the way I described but maybe the basic idea is usable.
I personally think that it would be easier not to get caught up too much with any particulars of the exchange, just down grade them a bit from 100% if they have questionable practices. For example a place like Okcoin or Huobi have extraordinary trade volume, so maybe just count them as 10% or 20%, and maybe even less, if you come to the conclusion that the trade volume does not really represent anything meaningful...
You may well be correct if you're saying there's no better way than to suck your finger and hold it in the wind. I certainly didn't come up with anything better.
Nevertheless, you won't get any agreement amongst the people you're talking to with such a subjective guess. Everyone will have their own guess - the details matter here.
I hoped to supply some real analysis.
PS: have you checked your pm's lately?
43.
Post 16761529 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Ok, taking my seat again for the next round incoming.
Hey tok _ n
I was thinking about our recent interaction, and I am really thinking that if you were to consider a kind of weighted average to the trade volumes of exchanges, then that could be more satisfactory overall...
I've thought about this in the past too. I tried to model it as a supply/demand system.
I failed miserably, but the journey was enlightening

I understand that there has been various discussion about this point of weighted trade volume, and I understand that it could be quite a bit of work to attempt to establish any kind of exact system, and therefore, probably good in concept, even though in practice we may want to merely attempt a kind of ballparking of such weighted trade volume considerations.
TL;DR zero fee volumes can't be used sensibly unless you model those fake and external influences. Different fee volumes probably can't be modelled the way I described but maybe the basic idea is usable.
I personally think that it would be easier not to get caught up too much with any particulars of the exchange, just down grade them a bit from 100% if they have questionable practices. For example a place like Okcoin or Huobi have extraordinary trade volume, so maybe just count them as 10% or 20%, and maybe even less, if you come to the conclusion that the trade volume does not really represent anything meaningful...
You may well be correct if you're saying there's no better way than to suck your finger and hold it in the wind. I certainly didn't come up with anything better.
Nevertheless, you won't get any agreement amongst the people you're talking to with such a subjective guess. Everyone will have their own guess - the details matter here.
I hoped to supply some real analysis.
PS: have you checked your pm's lately?
You seem to misunderstand me or to misread me, if you are suggesting that I am saying put your finger into the wind.
I followed the thread and understood your position.
I'm saying you want to guess the weighting to apply, and I'm saying you won't get general agreement with your guess.
The only way to get some agreement would be to add at least a modicum of math.

44.
Post 16922732 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Friday night Adam must've been drinking again

Did you at least returned the kids back?
Lol. Yes, the crazy level has risen again.
The 'majory' is here!

A message or two(?) seems to be missing as well. How'd that happen?
edit: Ahh. 'deleted by a moderator'.
Happy to reply directly, but I don't know who you are, so I'm doing it here.
Was my post about segwit lockin failing deleted because you think that is unrelated to bitcoin price? Really?
I'm guessing it was deleted more because it was replied to by our local crazy, but that hardly seems like a reasonable moderation, right?
45.
Post 16923084 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
That was last chance under $750 chaps ... time we ramped up the segwit signalling now and its off to the races.
I think I'm correct in saying that segwit signalling is off-topic here (/u/Lauda?).
There's another thread for it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1450783.0
46.
Post 16923929 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
That was last chance under $750 chaps ... time we ramped up the segwit signalling now and its off to the races.
edit: does your butthurt feel better now snowflake?
Haha. Yes, thank you.
Apart from issues like fairness, relevance, etc, my deeper purpose in making the off-topic comment was to display my hurt butt.

I'll try to avoid slinging dung in future as well.
47.
Post 16938080 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Craig Wright have more than 1 million BTC for dump so do not worry.
sure he does. i have 1 million too but i got bored of them so smoked the private keys.
More fun facts. CSW was claiming that he owned one of the world's largest supercomputers. Indeed, in my mind, this was a strong piece of evidence supporting his claim. It was even listed on the Top 500 list at # 17:
As late as May 4 of this year, it was listed:
However, the next update of 2016 May 07 dropped the listing:
I've not yet gotten the backstory on this. Of course, I just started looking -- as a background activity -- a couple of days ago. In the meantime, it is just one more piece of evidence against his claim.
'Tis a shame. I thought he'd make an about ideal Satoshi. Would have been a great legend. About what we deserve.

He was interesting alright. It's not often you find a person with both theoretical technical skills and conman skills mixed together.
So from that point of view I guess some investigation is worth doing out of interest.
But I'm surprised at how much attention he got. Anyone who used cryptography like ... ever ... knew there were guaranteed ways for him to prove he was satoshi (ar at least that he owned a bunch of early coinbases).
It looks like the density of people who actually know what crypto can do is much lower than I thought.
I've been using pgp for 25 years so it's entirely possible I'm in my own bubble

It was an eye opener for me tho ...
48.
Post 16938172 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
But I'm surprised at how much attention he got. Anyone who used cryptography like ... ever ... knew there were guaranteed ways for him to prove he was satoshi (ar at least that he owned a bunch of early coinbases).
i don't think there's any way to prove you're satoshi any more. someone else could control whatever keys, most of his accounts have been cracked anyway and whoever really wanted to go the extra mile has had years to come up with their 'evidence'.
If 'going the xtra mile' means producing a private key that actually proves access to those early coinbase outputs, then he would need a helluva lot of years to come up with it. Like the lifetime of the universe.
This is what I meant. People don't actually understand what crypto can do.
Math is solid. No opinions necessary.

49.
Post 16938305 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
If 'going the xtra mile' means producing a private key that actually proves access to those early coinbase outputs, then he would need a helluva lot of years to come up with it. Like the lifetime of the universe.
This is what I meant. People don't actually understand what crypto can do.
Math is solid. No opinions necessary.

nope. if someone had the private key the only thing that means is that they have satoshi's private key. they could've found it, been sent it, bought it, tortured it out of him. anyone on the planet could do that.
that doesn't prove you're satoshi by any means.
by extra mile i mean providing research and evidence you'd been looking into bitcoin's creation for years before.
Faking the kind of 'evidence' you're looking for is far easier than faking private keys.
Sure, the key could have been tortured out of him. Systems always surround the crypto guarantees and that environment doesn't have the same guarantees.
This being a trading thread and all means you'd prolly be more interested in the person who had the keys in that case, rather than if that person wrote the original bitcoin code.

If you were craig wright and you had those keys (you tortured satoshi), wouldn't you use them to prove that you had access to the coinbase outputs? After all, you're trying to prove you are the man.
CW made no such attempt ... I'm ignoring the ridiculously contrived meeting in a dark room. That was all just theater.
50.
Post 16944238 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
...
yep. maybe satoshi went out drinking on the train and left his computer behind, or maybe his mother finds a computer open while he's playing lego in the front room and goes on a spending spree. anything could happen.
Unlikely, but sure.
'Anything' ... except the scenario where craig wright has the keys and doesn't use them to bolster his case that he's satoshi

51.
Post 16998148 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
[[...]]
I might agree with you that the answer is not exactly clear; however, you seem to be framing the issue as if the onblock and offblock solutions are equal and competing proposals, which is truly not the case.
The case with seg wit is that it has gone through the early stages of consensus, development and testing, and therefore it is a yes or no vote about whether you agree to going forward with this version. There is no other version that is competing for attention or approval.. so if you go for the other version, then that version needs to be vetted and to go through testing.. and any code that is currently out there as a supposed competing version is either sloppy, non supported or both.
or Or OR
get this,
it has been tested on a test net, its being used on the main net, and its now being used to mine with >6% of total hash rate.
and you never bothered to look?
granted these are relatively new developments...
Agreed....
But you did forget to mention that the code that's working on main net is only the 0.12 code copied from the core client. None of the new code is being exercised there.
I suspect the testing of that stuff was minimal since they knew they didn't actually need to make it work for a long time.
just because YOU think BU is a hack job of 0.12.0 core code, doesn't make it true.
BU isn't some fly by night let's try to incress the block size group of lazy hackers...
Core isn't the only show in town, get use to it.
I'll ignore the adrenalin and strawmen...
I believe this is the currently active BU branch on github:
https://github.com/BitcoinUnlimited/BitcoinUnlimited/tree/0.12.1buYou can see the new commits (mostly BU-only block size and relay stuff) and the commits behind bitcoin master (mostly segwit commits not added, but also many others related to 0.13.0 and 0.13.1).
You can see it's forked from bitcoin (if you were in doubt!) and labelled as branch 0.12.1bu.
52.
Post 17034295 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say. On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood.
I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).
So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..
In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories. So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.
Sure is a lot of words, when you could have simply stated "no."
I used as many words as I decided was adequate to respond to the issue.
Heheh.
If you just said 'nuanced no', that would do it.
But then we'd feel like we were cheated.

53.
Post 17035191 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
at the moment seg wit is on the table, and those who are working towards [other solutions] don't have feasible code that has gone through the vetting process.
Well, no. BU has been running on the main chain several times longer than has The SegWit Omnibus Changeset.
I repeat ... the BU code that's actually running on main net at the moment (and therefore being 'tested' on main net) is mostly the old 0.12 core code.
None of the new block size related code is being exercised.
Bugs in the old core stuff are most unlikely since it already ran for so long (and had it's bugs fixed way back when).
54.
Post 17055594 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
To continue the euphoric sensations we are enjoying, Segwit is approaching 35% of all the Bitcoin nodes.
i think segwit signalling is a different process. that's just running the latest node.
Indeed.
In order to get the 95% blocks during a 2016 block period, the miners that are signaling will have to be lucky enough to find 95% of the blocks to activate SegWit.
I am aware that the nodes running it could be above 35% currently but if they are not mining nodes then it is a misconception to a true count.
Segwit counting just started again.
This time it's looking better than the last 2 week epoch - 33% of the first 9 blocks.
http://api.qbit.ninja/versionstats
55.
Post 17159847 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Past $780 on Coinmarketcap!!! Hold on to your hats!!

Looks like we may have a little bit of a battle on Stamp to get passed $780 - but I am getting the sense that there is enough buyer support to get passed that resistance (hopefully)... bringing the battle for $800 to be in our soon to be midst.. and even doable... (more than 1000 coins to get there, though.. maybe I can go back to sleep to make up for the lost sleep in watching the most recent actions?

) )
OK. I can't stand it any longer. I gotta be that guy.
s/passed/past/
Sorry Jay but someone had to tell you sooner or later.

56.
Post 17165909 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Not really, we will go to ATH (around $1200) with no real resistance and then we go exponential for a relatively short time before the crash - like it always happened. I've witnessed this shit three times already

Ipse dixit, huh.
So YOU say.
We know Rampion dixit'ed it, but we have no idea what ipse did!

57.
Post 17206928 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
800 must be some magical fkn number, because it is so obvious that the price is being held below that until the new year comes.
What happens at 800? I would think that there really isn't any resistance left from here on up, but hey what do I know.
Every number seems to be magical for dee torque. Go figure!!!
Can't wait for dee torque's reaction when we are passing quickly thru $1,234.56.

.
And then settling back on $1199.9999.

We'll have plenty of opportunity to stall at $888.888 and $999.999 too

At this point, I can theoretically agree that $888.88 could be a bit of a sticking point (not that number exactly because I don't believe in that numerology nonsense), but really, it seems that $999.999 is going to pass as a non-issue.
Not numerology.
I think these values are more like Schelling points - some value where traders can 'meet' without a bunch of communicating.

58.
Post 17221648 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Well, that's an interesting example, but speaking only from my own experience with mods here I don't feel it's a place for open discussion any more, certainly compared to other bitcoin forums. This seems more like the volunteer division of the blockstream marketing department.
I'm not claiming this as conclusive, only that I've seen enough for me to disengage.
What I found here or heard is that if you lose your account the only way to get it back is to "prove' such with your btc address on the main page and a private key for such
(any paper wallet with such even empty will do) then you can 'prove' it by sending the private msg that bitcoin has (forget the name) using your private key to sign such
did it once for a usb drive it was a pain of a way to make a sale
I see adam has NO btc address on a profile..thus screwed ..thus his access is never coming back it seems...had friends with accounts here hacked..without above the mods
won't even answer you email
so if you have not done so..make a blank paper btc wallet with private keys it can even be frigging never have btc in it..put it on your profile (for tips hah) and then worse
comes to worse and hacked you can get your account back..pain thou it may be
anyway what I've heard from more then one guy who had his account info lost in 2014 when this site was 'breached'
There's a thread somewhere here where people are adding their public key (PGP I think, but bitcoin should be ok too) and signing that together with a quote of the previous guy's message to form a "public key blockchain". So, at least register a key like that.
edit: found it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.0I lied actually. They seem to just be quoting previous message, not signing it...that seems to weaken the chain, but maybe ok.
59.
Post 17221827 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
There's a thread somewhere here where people are adding their public key (PGP I think, but bitcoin should be ok too) and signing that together with a quote of the previous guy's message to form a "public key blockchain". So, at least register a key like that.
where is the thread? may I ask for the link?
Sorry about that. I was lazy. Thought it would take ages to find the damn thing.
added to the first post, but to save you the trouble:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.0
60.
Post 17222751 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Posts are pretty frequently deleted here compared to in the past. Far more so than on other threads, I know this from personal experience. Nothing was taboo here once upon a time, but policy seems to have changed somewhat.
It is also true that different threads are moderated differently and always have been.
I've had a grand total of 3 posts deleted on bitcointalk. An interesting data point is that 2 of those were in this thread in the last few weeks and BOTH were on-topic but were in response to posts by adam (his new account). I think I got caught in a cross-fire there. That seems to me to indicate a newish attitude by mod(s?).
61.
Post 17224080 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Over the years I've been wondering if Andreas was aware of the monster approaching. He seems to now be aware

Woot! I'm a hero member now. My sig is slightly smaller at least. Lol
62.
Post 17324314 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
Approaching the 78.6% fib line. Doubt it will prove resistance, but guess you never know:

Counting today, 5 of the top 20 days in bitcoin history for BTCUSD price have been the past 5 days. Only 8 days have been higher than current prices. It doesn't seem like there would be a large group of people who bought on those 8 days and decided to wait 3 years to see if bitcoin could recover.
Yes, absolutely. I count just ten days where price was higher. How many days have there been since then, over 1000?

Sincere question:
Do you believe the mathematics of fibonacci sequences has anything at all to do with the supply/demand bitcoin market intrinsically?
OR: Do you believe that many traders believe that, so the effect will be the same?
OR: something else?
63.
Post 17324571 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
Sincere question:
Do you believe the mathematics of fibonacci sequences has anything at all to do with the supply/demand bitcoin market intrinsically?
OR: Do you believe that many traders believe that, so the effect will be the same?
OR: something else?
If Fibonacci and TA works, it is because they are able to capture human valuation psychology. Secondary to that, indeed traders might give temporarily give a sort of positive feedback loop when key resistance levels are broken, causing movements to be violent shortly after passing resistance levels. Of course all of this is tempered by traders anticipating these patterns and frontrunning them, so the more mature a market is, the less I would expect these patterns to be relevant.
Yes. Fib sequences being able to encapsulate human behaviour is part of it - frankly I don't believe the effect is large.

I suspect the truth contains both effects. There are examples of systems like that where 'causes' and 'effects' are hard to label and are in some kind of equilibrium. Example: general relativity where masses tell space how to curve, and then space curvature tells masses how to move.
64.
Post 17351263 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
hi guys!
you are not able to break 250.

remember?

Remember this guy? He's still here reading but for some reason doesn't have anything to say...
He's still up to his old (and tired) tricks spamming the sec about bitcoin etf's. I linked to his latest tirade here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1693841.msg16993383#msg16993383He's a master at confusing people with his economic 'arithmetic', while introducing quietly so many hidden assumptions it makes your head spin.
ediot: removed image fun

65.
Post 17362191 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
Continuing the discussion about what 'weight' to apply to chinese exchange volumes for comparison to fee'd exchanges, I found this interesting:
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/815298304233738240Mostly I'm surprised Armstrong has anything interesting to say, and I'd be even more surprised if he's right but this sounds good.
He's saying the individual trader's volume is used to determine his withdrawal fees, so they are incentivized to trade with themselves to get lower withdrawal fees.
So when determining a model for these volumes, we have an extra independent variable in the function - the withdrawal fee. The vol depends on supply/demand for transactions, external factors (like trader's bot speed, bandwidth etc.), trader's withdrawal fee tier. If that last one is the most important one, it may be possible to get to a sensible 'weight' after all.
66.
Post 17368037 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.
Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.
I'd like to see that proof

A couple of problems I see with it:
1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise.
2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at?
If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies.
67.
Post 17368718 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I was responding to this statement:
Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.
But since you offered a challenge ...

I've never done the proof formally, but the statement to be proved would be something along these lines:
- assume X% allocation bitcoin, and 100-X % allocation fiat at the beginning
- assume price starts at $A and ends at $B, with arbitrary path from A to B
- assume zero spread and zero fees (makes the math simpler, but you'd have to bear in mind this is an oversimplification of the model)
Strategy 1: no buying and no selling at all
Strategy 2: if your percent allocation of wealth in bitcoin rises above or below X% by some fixed amount D (let's say, +/- 5%) due to bitcoin price fluctuations, then buy or sell as needed to keep the % allocation within X +/- D %.
For example: if you set X at 50% at the beginning and D at 5%, then your bot will buy or sell as needed to keep your percent allocation within the range of 45% to 55%
The proof would basically say that Strategy 2 works better than Strategy 1. I think a few more assumptions are needed though. I'm not sure, but I think Strategy 2 is better if we assume that neither bitcoin nor the fiat becomes worthless. Suppose, for example, that the fiat hyperinflates a la Zimbabwe in 2009 or whenever. In that case, Strategy 2 would definitely be a BAD idea, because by the end you would have sold all your bitcoin and you'd have a zillion Zimbabwean dollars worth nothing. But if we assume the fiat currency stays stable, and bitcoin goes to the moon but does so in a very volatile fashion, then I'm pretty sure Strategy 2 can be proven to be superior.
EDIT:
Actually I might also have to assume that you start and end at the same price. Obviously if the price of bitcoin shoots up to $1M, you're better off if you didn't sell any of it at all during the rise, which means Strategy 1 would be better.
[/quote]
Since you assume a trend a priori, ANY trading on the volatility around that trend is more profitable than the simple hold strategy 1. You simply sell when the price is above the trend, and buy when it's below.
In practice of course you can't assume the trend.
68.
Post 17371615 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series.
Not quite. Any
periodic curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves. The trick is in knowing the periodicity of $=f(t). protip: that f() ain't periodic.
Nope.
An infinite fourier series can match any continuous differentiable function.
Ex: an infinite series can add to a single square wave pulse.
A finite sum can approximate any such function as accurately as you want.
69.
Post 17373642 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
Anyone remember which bitcoin price chart had that neat flashing "ATH" symbol when ATH was reached. I wanna make sure i get that experience again.

Either bitcoinwisdom or bitcoinity ...
70.
Post 17417135 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Thank god. The damn is breaking. Armstrong recommends adoption of segwit asap.
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/817258720253988865
71.
Post 17420475 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
It's worthy of note that the majority of this dump occurred the day BEFORE this meeting with pboc.
So either the btc exchanges did a bit of insider trading, or the pboc saw the dump and reacted faster than the speed of light

72.
Post 17529386 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Wow it's going up fast what's going on?
People are buying
And people aren't selling.
Actually they are, that's how the people buy in the first place.....

For price to move up, there has to be more buyers at the current price than sellers.
This isn't even the right way to state it. There's still the same number of sellers as buyers, right?
Maybe the right way to state it is to say that the buyers are willing to cross the spread to buy, while the sellers are not...
73.
Post 17571047 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
30 mins after that tweet btcusd up by +$10 or so.
Looks like people like the idea - or at least the idea that China thinks the cryptocurrency idea is good.
74.
Post 17571128 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
30 mins after that tweet btcusd up by +$10 or so.
Looks like people like the idea - or at least the idea that China thinks the cryptocurrency idea is good.
That news isn't even new. I mean I read yesterday or the day before something from PBOC talking about how they believe cryptocurrency is good but the "emission should be controlled by the state". So I mean, all they really want to do is make a govt slave coin that has nothing to do with Bitcoin at all. I'm not even sure how that would be bullish. If anything, they would probably ban Bitcoin after they make their govt slave coin. All the stuff I read made it sound more like they want to get rid of Bitcoin and replace it rather than "embrace" it.
Sure. The govcoin idea isn't new at all - we've all been expecting attempts at it for years now.
This is a concrete (well, tweeted!) plan though. I think it points to a certain amount of respect for cryptocurrency in China.
I agree that, as we expected for all govcoins, it would be an attempt to replace/reduce bitcoin use. That's long term and way beyond trader horizons I would think. And we're bitcoiners, right? Govs can't actually replace it; just make it harder to use maybe (the only bearish component in the story).

75.
Post 17658590 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
low volume low movement weekend so far.
i guess everyone is busy celebrating the year of the chicken
It's good to see the unsubsidized btccny volume now:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/btc/analysis/USDbtccny = btcjpy = btcusd = 30% of all (24 hour) volume approximately
76.
Post 17734602 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.03h):
I am an IT guy but when I first heard about Bitcoin I was defensive because I thought gold was the answer.
To this day I have not gone through all of the source code. But I did read the white paper and that got me.
Maybe some IT people might be hesitant because they understand how vulnerable most computers are.
I think it's more your economic views than your views on digital tech.
Understanding by IT people is, I think, dependent on a bit of knowledge of how cryptography works. The idea that your money can be safe by just ensuring a key is safe, etc ... I'm sure the knowledge that computers are so hard to secure feeds into it, but that crypto understanding is still a rare thing.
Agree with the economic views being important.
77.
Post 17958239 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
fortunately we aren't rallying that hard. this has been a casual run up in comparison to late 2013.
I have a vision of honey badger strolling casually past gold, like it's just another day in the life

Haha. This is the kind of vision I have too.
Except maybe that it's more like a viral swarm of honey badgers infiltrating every nook and cranny of the legacy financial plus a lot more.

78.
Post 17958315 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
It's the moment of truth for that 500 coin wall at Stamp.
There's a 2k wall at $1225 on finex. Maybe these are goldbug walls to slow down bitcoin/gold price parity.
79.
Post 17958376 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
and i'm in the red something like 4 BTC... ARGH.
How in the fuck does that happen ?!
Shorters

negative. not an trader at all actually. it's a couple loans from way, way back when the price was like 300 or under. i've just been a fail of a money maker and not gotten it paid down. the thread is out there in the lending sub-forum i'm sure.
Jesus H!
You should have taken a bank loan to pay that off. You realize you've been paying something like 45%pa interest for the last 3 years?
80.
Post 18057606 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
I sometimes think goldbug threads should be moved to the altcoin folder.
That said, don't get too smug about gold being vulnerable to space mining. Remember what quantum computing could mean to SHA256.

I'm remembering that quantum computing hardly affects sha256.
If you mean ecdsa tho, that's a different question and the answer is it wrecks it.
81.
Post 18128057 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Up $2.40 already per coin on my life savings!! IM RICH BITCH!!!!!
Time to pop the champagne
Do you have an island picked out yet?
Yo... what happened to your countdown? I thought we were supposed to have a decision yesterday
FAKE NEWZ!
I thought so too.
Ahh...
So it was just an 'alternative fact' then?
No problem.

82.
Post 18135590 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Approved
All I see is pump. Insider knowledge?
Seems suspiciously like it ...
wtf?
There was a dump to $1069 on finex just prior to the pump.
83.
Post 18135682 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Approved
All I see is pump. Insider knowledge?
Seems suspiciously like it ...
wtf?
There was a dump to $1069 on finex just prior to the pump.
NO!
went from 1205 to 1336! then down to 1069 and back up to 1280!
WIIILD ASS SHIT
Made the quickest G of my life
Oh bugger.
You're quite correct. Panic is reigning here.

84.
Post 18139953 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
So ... the next 30 seconds are critical I guess.

85.
Post 18164857 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
I think a factor in the high price is that people who thought it would be safer to wait until an ETF was available to get in because of institutional protection, their lack of tech knowledge, whatever, have realised they don't get that luxury and have starting buying directly. This is a bit of a silk road v2 situation IMO, everyone thought the value was due to X and then X vanishes and it retains the value = collect jaw drop and then FOMO.
Yup. Hardware wallets are selling out fast.
Why use an ETF when you can hodl your bitcoins at home on a Trezor? (If you can find one to buy).
No kidding. After long time considering buying one I finally did past week and I couldn't be happier now. Way better and more secure than my previous mess of having some in exchanges, some in software wallets and some in paperwallets.
Now I can only recommend to anyone that doesn't have one to buy one asap. It's a whole new dimension. There's really no reason not to have one except maybe for someone with less than 1btc.
I did buy a Ledger Nano S though, which is mostly the same than Trezor.
I use Nano S and Trezor. I like Trezor better because I can use it with one hand but that is a minor quibble. It is a good idea to keep a portable copy of latest Electrum on your desktop if you are using the Chrome apps for Nano S; once in a while the Ledger servers have a problem usually on a weekend. If you trade Ether you can use
MyEtherWallet as a backup to the Ledger Ether Chrome app.
My trezors handle:
1) bitcoin transactions etc.
2) password manager
3) u2f 2fa
Do Nano S devices do all of these things? I might check them out one day if they do.
86.
Post 18188249 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Buggy BU with a remote crash vunerability. Even after a year those ''skilled'' BU dev didn't noticed it, while pushing it asap
Advocacy for BU is political, not technical. Centralization, invalid blocks and crashes are not so important.
87.
Post 18224783 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
This is kinda OT, but it's too good to miss.
It's a comment in the reddit thread about Charlie's recent tweet on block size etc. A great summary of how we got here from there:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5zgwef/charlie_lee_on_twitter_todays_bitcoin_unlimited/dey7mz1/
88.
Post 18286590 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
my node crashed

It's cool, just grab the closed source patch.
i'll just wait till a few days after the releases... for node my node is "gimped" to avoid the crash
I added a sarcasm tag in case it wasn't obvious. Bleh... test is so boring...
I would definitely not recommend anyone use a closed source patch for software holding private keys.
but its written by thezerg, trust is irrelevant, we are the zerg

greg maxwell: PSA: I've been able to recover the changes in this binary, and they're massive.
Among other things, they've removed all the runtime state corruption protection... so cases where nodes would cleanly and safely shut down in the event of things going wrong, turn into potential consensus splits or even remote code execution.
sheesh. Lucky BU is just a distraction from the real (miner obstruction) issue.
89.
Post 18286940 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
my node crashed

It's cool, just grab the closed source patch.
i'll just wait till a few days after the releases... for node my node is "gimped" to avoid the crash
I added a sarcasm tag in case it wasn't obvious. Bleh... test is so boring...
I would definitely not recommend anyone use a closed source patch for software holding private keys.
but its written by thezerg, trust is irrelevant, we are the zerg

greg maxwell: PSA: I've been able to recover the changes in this binary, and they're massive.
Among other things, they've removed all the runtime state corruption protection... so cases where nodes would cleanly and safely shut down in the event of things going wrong, turn into potential consensus splits or even remote code execution.
sheesh. Lucky BU is just a distraction from the real (miner obstruction) issue.
I read the SVN data files too, they added a way to have the asserts do (almost)nothing in release
arrests are not meant for release its a debugging tool, and an assert firing is definitely not "cleanly and safely shut down "
but,
its obviously not clean code... after reading some of it i'm a little worried
however,
i do believe the entire code base suffers from this unclean code satoshi left us with
oh well,
BUGCOIN is dead now.
Sounds like he's back!

Welcome back man, we missed you.
90.
Post 18470434 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
It is a good publication for bitcoin but some may not accept it or even oppose it, maybe in the long run it may but people are afraid of changes once in a while.
It is strange to see Mexico designate it as such s a and Japan viewing it viable fiat which can be used in their banking system while Thailand has straight out banned it from being used at all.
Until the day that every country can just accept it for it is then I am afraid bitcoin will never come in being recognized as a true currency that it should be.
Do not ever believe it when a news article states that a country has banned Bitcoin. Most people do not verify it because they do not speak the native language.
Every time I have checked into one of these "X country just banned Bitcoin!", it is usually the central bank making a statement that they will not allow Bitcoin on their system. It's like saying that Burger King burgers are banned because the CEO of McDonalds releases a statement saying that no Burger King burgers will be sold by McDonalds. Then McDonalds goes on to warn about the risk you are taking by eating a Burger King burger.
Sure, some central banks have a tighter hold on their country's government than others but there is never a ban. If you go on localbitcoins you can buy/sell in every country in the world except Germany. And that is only because Germany declared Bitcoin a "private money". But in so doing, they tied all of their regulations to money to Bitcoin which included having a license to run an exchange (and they considered localbitcoins an exchange).
Well banned isn't the right word my mistake. But Thailand are arresting people for using it so it is a law.
And I didn't see this on the news. It was mentioned on here by another member. So this is were I first heard of it. And I was also in a questionable sense when I heard of this.
Thailand never banned bitcoin. That was a misinterpretation of a memo from a bank that actually didn't even have the power.
And re Thailand 'arresting people for using" bitcoin. Lol. Where on earth did that stupid idea come from?
91.
Post 18475405 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
FINALLY segwit will burn and we will have BIGGER BLOCKS

Are you referring to any recent news in particular, or just communicating a pure wish? hahahahaha
Haha.
'Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results' and 'high volatility' is very applicable to adam's posts. IOW, a real bitcoiner.

92.
Post 18476315 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
FINALLY segwit will burn and we will have BIGGER BLOCKS
[http://m.memegen.com/szcxil.jpg[/img]
Are you referring to any recent news in particular, or just communicating a pure wish? hahahahaha
Haha.
'Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results' and 'high volatility' is very applicable to adam's posts. IOW, a real bitcoiner.

I'm not sure if I understand your post or your position about this whole question regarding the short to medium prognosis for bitcoin?
I personally believe that in the end, some variation of the core's vision is going to prevail, and surely I hope that it includes some kind of incorporation of segwit - but even if seg wit does not get incorporated in the coming years, bitcoin still is in a decent place in terms of storage of value and security and various kinds of ways to control your own wealth from capital controls and even some kinds of abilities to do quasi-anonymous transactions in a pretty secure way.
Ahh. You are not using a poster's previous posts to assess the meaning of a current post. I can't fault you for that, but it explains why you don't see what I meant regarding adam's bipolar, chaotic, gut-wrenching opinion changes from post to post.
I guess it also explains why you don't know my own position. I'm on record as saying recently here that BU was a distraction and the real issue was miner obstruction of segwit. I just couldn't understand why that was happening. Now we know and I feel the world is rational once again

I'm hesitant to predict the future. I'm of the opinion that a miner found a competitive advantage and used it for a long time. Nothing wrong there (leaving out politics, patent rights etc). I'm sure that the next few weeks will provide lots of interesting reading about the possible ways forward. I can't see why any miner would stop using that advantage while he can, but otoh it can't be allowed to stop bitcoin protocol innovations. Interesting times ahead...
93.
Post 18497748 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
100% off-topic, but this is too good. Happened to me today:
Is there something wrong with me?
She wanted to buy some bitcoin from me for backpage (I think).
I was trying real hard here...even not asking a commission.
The chat went like this:
her: if u send me 100$ on my accnt
how much do i send u ?
?
me: you want 100$ of bitcoin?

her: bitcoin
yes love
me: i suggest you send 100$ then. lol

her: wow expensive
1 $ per bitcoin
lol
me: at the moment it's about 1200$ per bitcoin

her: lols
im asking 100$ on my bitcoin
dont change the topic
me: jesus you're hard to talk to.
you want 100$ of bitcoin? then send me 100$

her: and im asking how much
me: 100$!!!

her: 1$ per bitcoin ?
me": jesus. no. 100$ for 100$ worth of bitcoin

her: what ?
Chat Conversation End
Sent from Messenger
edit: Like a monty python clip ain't it?

94.
Post 18521377 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
we have passed $1200 safely with high volume,
so whats next ?
new target ounce gold ? or beyond that?
I just noticed the new version of mycelium on my phone sez bitfinex btcusd is already 1218.
Maybe they know something we don't.

edit: mycelium vindicated. we're there already.
95.
Post 18597793 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
Some time ago, I noticed his whois admin address was only a 10 min walk from me.
Maybe I should turn up at his door with a few dozen beers and have a nice lil chat with him.

96.
Post 18648693 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
Lol.
Gold bugs panic (in the comments) when mike maloney says there's a place in the prepper's portfolio for bitcoin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCPeQyA_jug
97.
Post 18676048 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
Wasn't here for a moment and now I find
Bitfinex $1300
The others ~$1230
Chinese exchanges $1060
What is going on?
Bitfinex can't withdraw FIAT whilst Chinesse exchanges can't withdraw BTC... Maybe they should merge before its too late. Love is in the air.
I would have thought that kind of 'liquidity' problem was the kind of thing that the Liquid sidechain could have helped with.
What happened to that?
98.
Post 18695641 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
But everybody already knows bitcoin doesn't work the way salesmen like Antonopolous claim it does, so without further ado, you can stop watching Antonopolous propaganda and view the full one hour Richard Spencer Q&A at Auburn Univ:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1JJA6UiEioJust so noone else wastes their time scanning thru this video, it contains NO mention of bitcoin at any point.
99.
Post 18733846 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
800 of the next 1200 litecoin blocks need to be segwit signalled for segwit on litecoin to lock in.
Miners are currently signalling 99% of blocks ...
Maybe I was too 'realistic', but I expected the big miners to keep it at about 75% until the end so they could make a bit of extra cash by manipulating the apparent likelihood and therefore market price.
I must be getting old ...

100.
Post 18762030 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
Amidst the price, asicboost scam, and backdoors, it seems to hardly be noticed that Litecoin segwit lockin is now irreversible.
Just sayin ...
101.
Post 18762501 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
Amidst the price, asicboost scam, and backdoors, it seems to hardly be noticed that Litecoin segwit lockin is now irreversible.
Just sayin ...
... and just sayin, the pumpers will sell on the news...
In my dreams: the market should have had several prices in mind - the npv of the 'segwit' activates' future, the npv of the 'segwit fails to activate' future and the price with no segwit bip started at all. It should be adjusting efficiently between the two future prices according to the activation likelihood. Now that the likelihood is 100%, we should see price stability.
Back to reality: You're right of course.

102.
Post 18822094 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
New section of coin.dance shows explicit support for UASF/BIP148 almost the same as explicit support support for Emergent Consensus amongst merchants/projects, while segwit is double those:
https://coin.dance/poliSurprising that the UASF support is so high already. Does anyone think this thing will scare or shame Jihan Wu into stopping segwit obstruction? If not, it has to go all the way, and that seems highly dangerous.
103.
Post 18878650 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
We should know bby now when to call it a dump or not. That was not a dump.
That was a sneeze
Heh. The usual idiom would be: "That wasn't a dump, just a fart."

104.
Post 18931028 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
i read now the last replies regarding the fees and how long you wait etc etc...
i maybe live in another world because the maximum i wait when deposit to exchange or send back etc is never more than 1 hour about....
and i never have problem to pay some small amount...
the question is .. where do we go from now regarding the price??
With the current fee fiasco I suspect we are going down.
Which fiasco? I am trading all day long and have several feeds open... Haven't read anything about a "fiasco". Source?
No particular source... I am just an average user that is having huge problems getting the BTC transferred from a wallet to an exchange. That is a fiasco, and from what I have read many other people have the same problem.
Ok, I thought you were refering to something new.
Also I wouldn't consider it a "fiasco". I mean, are you sure the problem isn't in the exchange end?
Have you checked the transaction in blockchain explorer to see if it is already confirmed but the exchange is not acknowledging it?
Did the transaction include a proper fee? Unless you set it up manually, it should be ok though.
Anyways, yes, Bitcoin needs to solve the scaling problem asap. But that is already "discounted" in current price. Once that get solved expect the price to skyrocket.
All the transactions show in bitcoin.info as Unconfirmed. I have been raising the fees manually because my wallet was sending 0.0001 for all transactions.
In my latest transaction I sent 0.25 with 0.0005 (240 satoshi/byte) but when this gets processed it gets added to another 0.5 BTC and then the fee per byte drops to 96??
see the tx:
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/44af690b488daae59c2ca4bd055a6dc29378e11e51853de4e0763e72f8dd3e3eYa. This one has a low (96 sat/B) fee, and 3 inputs so it might be unexpectedly delayed. The following one with the right fee (~220 Sat/B) will not confirm because it tries to spend the unconfirmed output from the delayed one.
edit: just saw that the one you posted has 3 unconfirmed inputs too! You seem to have a basic misunderstanding of how this all works.

edit2: Ahh. Do you have 'spend unconfirmed change' set in your wallet? That, and a bit of impatience, might have caused this chain of unconfirmed transactions (plus the low fees paid earlier).
105.
Post 18931954 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
someone just ate a 1.5k wall on finex i believe?
I missed the actual destruction, but I saw the shattered remains in the transaction log.

106.
Post 18945973 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
Thanks for the detailed explanation. One more question.
If you have multiple hardware wallets with the same seed, do they all update when you perform a transaction on one of them?
Or if you have multiple copies of the seed, do the transactions travel with the seed in case your original hardware is destroyed and you have to rebuild on new hardware with the same seed??
First question: Yes, of course. It's basically the same as if you have your software wallet in multiple computers.
Second question I don't understand it well. If you want to have access to the same addresses you had you need to rebuild another device or a software wallet with the same BIP39 seed. Also, you can configure the device with a different seed if you want. And there's much more to it.... you can establish a passphrase (besides the regular pin) that depending on which one you enter it will access a different set of addresses (as if it had a different seed... plausible deniability, etc...)
Really, just buy one, it's a good thing.
Thanks again. I guess I'll have to read up on BIP39.
As long as I don't have to trust any hardware manufacturer and (or anyone else besides the Bitcoin network) and my coins are secure in the case of hardware loss, I'm all for it.
You're convinced me enough to buy one (or two) just to use as a landing place when I break one of my older multi-coin paper wallets to reassign the coins. That will give me a chance to experiment with worst-case scenarios after I've drained it of all but a few satoshis.
As you said, the cost of a Trezor is negligible compared to the coins it holds at today's prices.
You might also like to know that they (Trezor, at least) can:
1) store passwords for your web site/email/etc authentications
2) generate secure passwords for the above so you no longer need to try to remember lots of slightly different passwords for those sites
3) act as a u2f 2 factor identification device (so you don't lose access if your 2fa device is lost - unlike otp 2fa like google authenticator).
AND ... all of the above is restored whenever you initialize a new device with the seed.

107.
Post 19118257 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
I'm having trouble getting my head around the fact that every single bitcoin I lovingly cared for over the last few years has laid me a 1.5 ounce golden egg (on average)!
I just need to figure out a way to use the eggs to buy more chickens, without selling the original chickens

108.
Post 19118607 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
I'm having trouble getting my head around the fact that every single bitcoin I lovingly cared for over the last few years has laid me a 1.5 ounce golden egg (on average)!
I just need to figure out a way to use the eggs to buy more chickens, without selling the original chickens

Its called Margin Long. even if you only use 1x margin (or less), your stash can be leveraged to lay more eggs, without having to sell any. Of course, markets go both ways. You want to bet correctly, or it works in reverse

I guess so. I'm risk averse tho; I was talking about separating the eggs and using those to bet with.
Unfortunately, on further reflection, the analogy is flawed; the eggs are firmly stuck inside the chickens.
109.
Post 19186006 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
Ok guys, I have finally got my free CLAMS, so it was for real. Got 28 CLAMS for the six addresses I could find that were applicable. That's around 100€... Free money I love it

Btw, I used Just-Dice to do the claim as gentleman posted, after trying several times to sync the clam wallet to no avail.
After getting over the creepy feeling involved in extracting and send the private key, I did this also.
You know you don't need a CLAM wallet (and no need to sync) if you use shapeshift.io? If you leave the clam address empty, say 'withdraw', it makes a clam address for you to enter on the just-dice.com site...
110.
Post 19186524 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
Ok guys, I have finally got my free CLAMS, so it was for real. Got 28 CLAMS for the six addresses I could find that were applicable. That's around 100€... Free money I love it

Btw, I used Just-Dice to do the claim as gentleman posted, after trying several times to sync the clam wallet to no avail.
After getting over the creepy feeling involved in extracting and send the private key, I did this also.
You know you don't need a CLAM wallet (and no need to sync) if you use shapeshift.io? If you leave the clam address empty, say 'withdraw', it makes a clam address for you to enter on the just-dice.com site...
Perhaps this is my tinfoil hat speaking but......aren't you worried about the "paper" trail you are submitting to this exchange of private key for CLAM? Much like when the Coca-Cola created this huge online photo album of people's faces in order to find their "doppelgangers," not for a huge facial recognition system instead.
I thought about it, and couldn't see any problems. I was kinda worried that they didn't ask for a signed address instead of the stupid idea of asking for the private key tho.
They needed the btc address (to confirm I deserve the CLAM) - I don't see what extra info they get with the private key.
Did I miss something?
111.
Post 19191099 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
What the fuck ? I go to sleep for a few hours, and wake up to see it's gone up another $150 up to ~$2,664 ??!??
Aye carumba !
At least half of us have no idea what's happening.

My two halves are beside themselves.
The rest of me is deluded.

112.
Post 19267363 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.11h):
Current Bitcoin transaction fee: $2.18
Peer to peer gold and silver transaction: $0
Let's do a peer to peer gold transaction. I'll pay you double spot for an ounce of gold on delivery. Let's see about those $0 transaction fees.
Here is my address.
https://www.google.com/maps/@-43.1382064,147.2102165,17zYep. And don't forget to have the assay equipment ready to ensure it's 99.99% gold. Maybe a furnace to melt it down to check inside etc.

I think you should also factor in some storage costs if you want a vault somewhere to keep it safe.

113.
Post 19417637 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.12h):
I don't understand how BTC/USD price affects ETH/USD price? When BTC/USD is crashing, ETH/BTC goes up. That I can understand somehow. But my mind gets boggled when I try to figure why then ETH/USD then goes up? Maybe I just need some sleep...
Logically: ethusd = ethbtc*btcusd when the trading between eth, btc, usd is frictionless and at (maybe temporary) equilibrium.
So if btcusd is dropping and ethbtc is rising, the product could go either way.
No great trading insight there, but the model might help.
114.
Post 20018134 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.13h):
Yay! We're back!
Gratz infofront.
115.
Post 20078208 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.13h):
If the sort of dystopian, hyper-inflationary future that gold bugs predict actually happens, it seems likely to me that there will be jackbooted thugs kicking down their doors to take their gold. This has happened before, even in the US.
If they want to steal my bitcoins, they'd better be able to crack SHA-256.
Or crack your knees with a hammer until you give them your private key
Such an old chestnut - which was resolved approximately 3 decades ago when the first duress password system was designed.
116.
Post 20751982 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.17h):
So I'm heading off to thailand fully paid for by the free coins tomorrow, and I need a new suitcase. I'm thinking pink for easy visibility, but maybe an ugly yellow would work too. Thoughts?
Yeah... Why would someone go to Thailand instead of Las Vegas?
The fuck would I do in vegas except go broke?
Thailand is cheap, is not FUCKING COLD and has some of the best food in the world. Also, bargirls.
Besides the obvious, I'm very curious to see if I can make enough money trading bitcoin with the locals to pay for the stay. If so, why would I not live in a high quality hotel in a great country instead of a far more expensive apartment in a frozen wasteland?
Now you can buy residency in Thailand for 5-10 years or longer. I'm willing to bet other countries in Asia start to follow suit.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/you-can-buy-elite-residency-in-thailand-for-60000-2017-4Jesus ... it costs a few hundred bucks to get a retirement visa, then a few tens of dollars a year to renew it. These packages do very little more for you unless you really want a work visa(?), lotsa spa appointments, maybe an annual health check etc. Lot of money for bugger all IMO.
117.
Post 20970687 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.18h):
So if someone has physical access to a Trezor, they can have access to all BTC. In that case i don't know how a Trezor is better than my old fashioned paer wallet locked inside a safe. In fact, paper wallet is safer because i wouldn't be keeping the Trezor inside a safe, would I? Hmm....
A $5.00 wrench can defeat both the paper wallet in a vault and the Trezor. No hacking knowledge needed.

You're nuts if you don't have a duress password set on any password protected system you care about where duress can be used.
You're out of touch if you didn't know about these things. They were first invented and implemented like 30 years ago!
Trezor has such a thing. Look it up.
118.
Post 21137172 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.18h):
I was offered what would now be about $2 per post if I put their ad in my signature.
Still not going to do it.
whose ad was that?
Bitmixer was offering $2 to $3 (0.7mBTC) per post around the time theymos killed sigs here.
119.
Post 21145837 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.18h):
How will 2x fail when it has 90% ecosystem support?
On the contrary. B2X has 90% ecosystem rejection.
The same situation we already had with Bitcoin Classic, Bitcoin XT, Bitcoin Unlimited, now with Bitcoin Cash, and same will be with Bitcoin 2X. Same people stand behind all of those! Some of them even sold out their bitcoins at $450 claiming that Bitcoin is broken and has no future...
What? Stop spreading misinformation. The economic majority behind Bitcoin have agreed on the 2x blocksize increase. They are the vested interests who have the greatest say as to the future direction of Bitcoin. This has already been agreed upon.
We will be getting a block-size upgrade for BTC and Segwit1x can chose to maintain a non-contentious minority chain if they so chose.
You're the one spreading misinformation.
It wasn't an economic majority, and they didn't agree to switch to jgarzik's btc1 fork.
The NYA was a Jihan/Ver bait 'n switch. That's why we're seeing the signatories of the NYA start to back away from it now.
The (charitable) version of my take on this with a face-saving exit for those businesses:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2074058.msg20721971#msg20721971Truth is, I think that picture assumes more good faith than there really was, but at least it's a way out.
120.
Post 21201513 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.19h):
-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Ok, so my account yefi got hacked 2017-08-19. I'm a little shocked at this as my p/w was a random 9 digit code with a special character. It was also unique to this site. Anyway, please ignore anything my lobotomised impostor now writes, thank you.
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
1NYG8FXzttGBxeyTpvefkG9qVEQUFRacQo
ILKE74zlefd0JdEr8uhy4EK9XsbeVUuDxPHyoMzPlFl5fJV2k0pmeNU1O7o00kUXY/9t5H7jJh7rXYjwmIYQq0k=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Here is the unedited post where I posted that address:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.msg13422402;topicseen#msg13422402I didn't see that anyone confirmed this, so let me say I did.
yefi2 possesses the private key that matches the address yefi posted previously.
121.
Post 21201750 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.19h):
Another overnight push. Loving those at the moment.

Does anyone have a list of airdrop Alts that can still be claimed with my private keys?
I'm not sure how many airdrops are running out there, but these are confirmed running right now:
Stellar Lumens - LAST date 27th Aug
https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens-2/Byteball - next round on 6th Sep
https://byteball.org/Bitcore
https://bitcore.cc/(And of course, the usual BitCH coins, if you've not already claimed them)People love these free money things, but I don't see much (any?) discussion of the negative aspects.
The addresses you use to claim these coins are forever linked together and that data will (eventually) make it's way to chain analysis companies (by sale) or governments (by subpoena).
Even worse, when you do this you decrease the privacy of bitcoin for other users as well.
Full disclosure: I tried a clam address to check out (the free money and) use of shapeshift instead of installing a special wallet. It worked well btw.

I'm already seeing single satoshis being sent to that address, I guess in the hope they get merged into a transaction one day when fees work out better, thus linking some extra addresses together.
It only needs one of those clustered addresses to be associated with your actual id for the whole cluster to be linked to you.
edit: for the record I should have added bch into this. Moral of the story - if you have any expectation of privacy, sell your bch one address at a time
122.
Post 22626111 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.22h):
Only by miners that agree to implement this, and do not renege. What guarantee do you have that this will be the case? For that matter, what guarantee do you have that someone does not know the private key corresponding to this address?
The miners that don't agree to this, would not be on SegWit2X. There is no private key for this address, but the redeem script has been published, so anyone can spend whatever is there.
So one could use the address given + redeem script on the input side of a splitting transaction?
Does that work if there isn't even one satoshi in the address?
123.
Post 22777537 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.22h):
10/10 bikerlezno* LAST WINNER
This guy could be the winner again OMG
NOOOOOO!!!!! I need another couple days dammit.
Would be good to see us break $5k in a day tho. Lol.
I'm confused again.

124.
Post 22831301 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
END list, good luck!
...
10/10 bikerlezno* LAST WINNER
it looks like lightning will strike twice at the same spot.
A new ATH within 2 hours? I doubt it.
I think Ted E Bare and HarryMMMM have a much better chance, or maybe Cryptoqueen.
Cryptoqueen would be crazy ....Thats my girlfriend and her Bday 😊 ;-)
I find myself suddenly interested in the minutia of this lottery.

Is the ath on bitstamp?
Is the day measured from 0000UTC?
125.
Post 22889965 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
13 or 14 from what it looks like to be...
But nice try! Good luck next time! =)))) ... that guy with 10/10 made me scratch my head a bit 2-3 days ago when I was looking at the charts. But I was a fool not to take into account any or even the smallest slightest correction.

I'm up atm. Thought I'd missed out but just now we had a $50 rip.

I'm back in the race I think. Another couple like that will do it.
Go bitcoin!
We (well I) need an ath in the next 17 hours.

126.
Post 22894692 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
congratulation to us hodlers and to harrymmmm for predicting the new ATH

Woot!
I NEVER win lotteries - this is a nice first.

127.
Post 22894830 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
I gave a different address to you before, but i'd like to keep non-bch addresses separate, so here's a better one:
1EpzWUZvWc4vDt6yyWMg6shPihizzfYefs
Thx for your generosity holding these lotteries.
128.
Post 22896280 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
I gave a different address to you before, but i'd like to keep non-bch addresses separate, so here's a better one:
1EpzWUZvWc4vDt6yyWMg6shPihizzfYefs
Thx for your generosity holding these lotteries.
When you recieve please post a proove of payemt ..... thx
Confirmed:
https://blockchain.info/address/1EpzWUZvWc4vDt6yyWMg6shPihizzfYefsThe first confirmation happened less than a minute from the broadcast tx.
Looks like bitcoin is working as intended once again - glad we've discarded the dead weight and pushed them off to their own chain(s).

129.
Post 22898434 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
Congrats to harrymmmm, what a nice present for you... 0.5 BTC sounds sooo fat these days...
And many thx to micgoossens, really enjoyed the game, and don't worry about being hated, this often means you're doing something right...
Kraken ATH: 4315 EUR <-- Already broken! LOL!
THIS IS GENTLEMEN!
'Tis incredible to think that half a bitcoin - something we would barely have noticed a few years ago - is now like $2500usd.
100 pizzas or so!

130.
Post 22933013 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
there are no races ffs. there are racists like you, though.
There actually are races, between something like 20-50 races. But its not about the color of the skin as you may think, but features. And the color of the skin is mostly about geography and exposure to the Sun for multiple generations. (millennia maybe)
Jeez. People get so fkd up these days by the political correctness.
Follow this story:
There's a thing called human dna. It gets continually randomized. Humans spread out into all kinds of ecological niches.
Some mutations are handy in some niches; others are bad (and tend to die off).
So each niche creates a cluster of certain dna strings with higher/lower probability than other niches.
These clusters can grow to be so different that speciation occurs where interbreeding no longer works.
The ones you're talking about ('races' by definition) have enough differences to be noticeable, measureable, significant depending on people's definition of race. The differences include obvious stuff like skin color (yes, it's in the dna) as well as IQ and many other differences not so obvious.
Not so hard is it?
Saying there are no races just means you have a new definition of the word 'race'.
That kind of language change marks the politically correct.
131.
Post 23182343 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
I believe this is just a report that 2 groups have found some of the normal matter that we knew was there but had not detected.
Dark matter unaffected.
132.
Post 23185984 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.23h):
I believe this is just a report that 2 groups have found some of the normal matter that we knew was there but had not detected.
Dark matter unaffected.
why should dark matter be unaffected by this discovery?
dark matter is what scientist called missing/undetected matter. the saw the gravitation effects of missing/undetected matter, but they did not see matter itself. so they called it dark matter.
now this mystery is solved, there is no dark matter anymore. as far as I understood.
Dark matter by definition is stuff which does not interact (or does so extremely weakly) with normal matter (our standard model stuff) except via gravitation.
This stuff they've found is normal matter.
It's hot ferkrissakes - radiating photons. Obviously dark matter doesn't do that.
133.
Post 23958131 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.25h):
goat is canny ... he bought the lambo, new, and then sold it on when btc had tanked ... pretty sure he would have got back in near the lows.
A couple years ago I made a ThailandBitcoin subreddit. In the middle of a thread on bitcoin exchanges and the 'banning' of bitcoin in thailand, goat said:
"Yes I bought a Lambo with XBT but I recently sold it and bought more XBT. It was a pro XBT PR stunt that also helped me acquire more XBT"
(
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinThailand/comments/2ysqmh/exchanges/)
The thread mostly consisted of him and a thai exchange owner slinging crap at each other ... worth a read.

134.
Post 24607337 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.27h):
Good morning Bitcoinland.
Consolidating sideways around $6.6k I see... currently $6585USD/$8407CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
Total forkcoins (excluding BCH-ABC) are at $1538USD/$1960CAD (Coinmarketcap).
After yesterday's fine recovery, consolidation is good. Hopefully we'll continue upward soon.
It's clear what the "real" Bitcoin is. A big-blocker reaction after x2 cancellation was to be expected. Luckily it didn't last long.
Go Bitcoin go.
What the heck is BCH-ABC?
Jeez you been living under a rock?
It's BCC, of course.

135.
Post 24608133 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.27h):
Good morning Bitcoinland.
Consolidating sideways around $6.6k I see... currently $6585USD/$8407CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
Total forkcoins (excluding BCH-ABC) are at $1538USD/$1960CAD (Coinmarketcap).
After yesterday's fine recovery, consolidation is good. Hopefully we'll continue upward soon.
It's clear what the "real" Bitcoin is. A big-blocker reaction after x2 cancellation was to be expected. Luckily it didn't last long.
Go Bitcoin go.
What the heck is BCH-ABC?
Jeez you been living under a rock?
It's BCC, of course.

Silly me.
And BCC is?
I wuz gonna tell you to look it up and you'd find the ticker is actually bitconnect.
But I'd feel guilty.
BCC=BCH=ABC are the various ticker symbols and software project names for the new bcash coin.
They stupidly chose BCC even tho it was already in use (BitConnect), so everyone else changed it to BCH.
ABC was the open source project which was actually launched later as bitcoin cash (BCH) - which most people now call bcash.
Simple, innit? /s
edit: got the quotes all wrong.
136.
Post 25455871 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.29h):
This is clearly as high as bitcoin will ever get, basically. Maybe just a little bit higher because there are people who haven't realized this is a failed experiment, but that's it. 1 bitcoin will absolutely never be worth $50k. $100k? LOL, no.
What'd I tell you guys? That was the last ATH bitcoin will ever see. People are finally waking up to how much of a failure this project is. Here, if bitcoin gets over GDAX ATH of $11,485, I'll give the the first person to quote me here the last of my bitcoin, which is 0.1 BTC.
I think it would be extremely interesting to see what proudhon really values his bitcoin at.
I'll make a bid (above $0) for that 0.1 BTC ok? I won't even insist on the requirement that it goes over the ath to trigger the transaction.
$100.

137.
Post 25519213 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.30h):
Sorry if this was mentioned already. I'm too lazy to check.
It seems bitcoin was the subject at the presidential briefing yesterday. Sarah Sanders sez the president (and some advisors she named) were 'monitoring' it.

@15:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzskJmAHyckNot sure if this is before or after the bitcoin Big Bang Theory episode.
138.
Post 26239889 (copy this link) (by harrymmmm) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.32h):
Bglod is finally seeing some action.
^^ Have I missed the origin of a new meme?
Ahh. I'm pretty sure they meant bgodl.
