The way the holders have the balls to hold is that they understand what is happening. The world is switching over to secure digital asset ledgers. They are simply unquestionably superior. Since they've already cashed out enough fiat currency to meet their daily needs, the only thing they care about is increasing their share in that asset register.
If you want be able to hold on to your coins, deeper research and thought about the system in the grand sweep of things is essential. Here are some links for deep Bitcoin scholarship:
Hey Zang - Great summary. Once again. Thank you.
And I completely agree with your advice behind this post. That has been my experience exactly - and that of my few friends who have gone deep enough to understand. The more I grok what is really going on, and the economic forces at work, the more solid I become. And the more I understand, the more confident I become that I will be able to recognize the signs if my internal model is flawed.
Of course it does not hurt to have pulled out profit and recouped my initial investment long ago.
I also believe the risk for investment right now is much lower than when I first got started, even though the numbers are much bigger. It is still a binary game, but with IMHO, a still massively disproportionate risk/reward profile.
;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.
This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.
I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.
Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you
BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.
It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I
could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".
I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.
Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.
I try to avoid online warzones so I'm not commenting on that, but I must add that I have highly enjoyed your analysis and hope you continue forward regardless of peoples reactions. I think you deserve kudos for predicting the drop to the 400s before we had even hit $1250. Your trendline is also in sync with a number of other people's trendline predictions I've seen on this forum and around the net. As far back as August a couple others had targeted $1000 for May-June 2014 with a possible bubble in between. I don't care about day to day up or down movement, the real action is in the big moves mid/long term. No one is being forced to follow what you are posting, I've been impressed by your analysis thus far. =)
+1
I read rpietila's analysis on why we would see low 400s, bought when it hit that price target, and have been very happy since.
Thank you rpietila for helping me get coins at the right price. Don't listen to the kooks, keep doing what you're doing
+2 That has been my take as well. RP has at times been all over the map, but his contribution to this community and to my btc journey has been outstanding. Not to mention plenty of extra coins. Keep putting it out there.
Rpietila seems a reputable in his views.
I think we all should read his writings, learn him, try to figure out his mood and based on this, sell or buy coins.
The price will go quite low if we can trust him - usually we can. He made his bearish call correctly last time while all were laughing at his face, spitting on him and considering him as slain of God, the man of sorrows, the friend of pains etc.
After all, he made his trades and tons of money. Now those of you who do not follow his paths right now will loose as the price eventually crashes.
He is making money so why shouldn't I do it with him? I hope you guys here are also in the same boat with me. It is not that difficult to turn from bull to bear. I did it after I found Rpietila did it also.
Wrong thinking. That is very dangerous way to operate. Never make another person - here or anywhere - the arbiter of what you do with your money. Do your homework and take full responsibility. RP has been a helpful analyst for me, but he has certainly not always been right. RP has made lots of money trading btc, and RP has lost lots of money trading too. He can afford to, you can not. He has large core holdings that he will never touch. Do not follow him blindly. Even if what he is saying on these forums is what he is actually doing, his situation is very different than yours.
And I actually agree with RP that 99% of people should not be trading btc - just accumulating at good prices. I've been trading btc for 2.5 years, and trading stocks for more than 10 years before that. With btc I'm very conservative. I almost never sell any coins, except small percentages (max 10%) at obvious tops/major pullbacks. I've been successful in BTC (like almost everybody here - including RP) mostly by accumulating at relatively stable/low prices and then being well positioned for the next explosive pops.
If you don't know what you are doing (and if you are wondering if this applies to you - then it certainly does!) you will do yourself a great service to just accumulate coins, and leave the trading to those with the resources and/or experience. Of course you will not believe me until you have paid dearly for your own lessons. So be it...
I recall rpietila prediction about going to 800 than crashing all the way down to 400 and staying there for some time, I really want to hear his input about the late events, because you all trashed me because of being a bit aggressive about of his prediction
he logs everyday and he doesn't post a single word, if you are reading this I am still interested on your fancy predictions and especially the way you drag the noobs by bragging about the expensive cigars and the money you have...
Didn't he promise not to post before $350?
Well he's broken that promise if so. He accurately predicted the fall. So did walsoraj. He also invited us to "JOIN THE BEARS," the first time it hit 900. Of course anyone who did so would have missed the run up to 1200, though still could have bought back in and increased their position true if they were patient.
I don't blame Risto for his predictions. He was basing them on a log-linear line in the growth adoption curve. He may very well be readjusting that because it appears we are on a much faster growth curve as seen on these charts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg4227521#msg4227521Well, the conclusion then should be that a log linear regression model cannot be used for daily trading advice, no?
It's useful to get an idea of the order of magnitude that can be expected at some time x, but for the nitty gritty details of trading decisions ("should I buy back in at 700?"), it sucks.
Problem is, he simply doesn't get that.
I suspect you may be right. To be fair to Risto, I do believe he said that even if we get back above 1000 and test 1200 again, he predicted we will very quickly drop back again.
I'm guessing the dynamics will be similar to that, but more because of the manipulation of the market. I suspect there are big players that will benefit from running the price up and down for a while, accumulating positions, shaking out weak hands, before allowing the next big jump up. Just a hunch, and I am almost exclusively a long-term holder.
I'm guessing the dynamics will be similar to that, but more because of the manipulation of the market. I suspect there are big players that will benefit from running the price up and down for a while, accumulating positions, shaking out weak hands, before allowing the next big jump up. Just a hunch, and I am almost exclusively a long-term holder.
We are moving into a time when plankton will turn on whales! Soon you will be able to watch plankton stripping a whale to the bone in a few seconds!
LOL. I would like to see that very much!
Objectively, what are our chances of going lower? I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year. Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?
DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.
now that is what sound advice looks like.
+1 Can't be said often enough.
"Silbert also noted that the total value of the bids was 48,013 BTC or roughly $28.4m. At press time, the market value of the 30,000 BTC was roughly 17.7m"
42 bidders. So it looks like the bids were extremely low. Am i saying this right?
Not sure how people keep getting this wrong
Easy. Fear clouds the mind.
A big move is certainly coming up sometime soon-ish given the coiling we are experiencing.
Very nice charts. But it suggests something different to me. We may have to wait somewhat longer for the next big push. Hope not. But that's what this looks like to me.
"Silbert also noted that the total value of the bids was 48,013 BTC or roughly $28.4m. At press time, the market value of the 30,000 BTC was roughly 17.7m"
42 bidders. So it looks like the bids were extremely low. Am i saying this right?
Not sure how people keep getting this wrong
Easy. Fear clouds the mind.
Yeah. I'm full of fear. My mind is so clouded. Ready to sell all my coins.
That's what Big Trade is buying into - the utility, not the speculative opportunity, so I'm not expecting another "launch". I'll be very surprised if we see $1000 again - there's no good reason for it at the transactional level.
Even without the conspiracy theories, it is easy to see that you (and most people) are not understanding the deeper implications of the money change we are going through. Learn and study more if you want make wise long-term bitcoin decisions. Bitcoin's utility - and therefore price - is directly tied to the network and the number of people using this network. The bigger this network, the more valuable the network-this is inevitable law. Owning bitcoins is like owning a piece of this network. The network is growing at exponential rates, and I see no data to suggest this is going the other way - in fact the opposite. The timing of price explosions is for speculators to debate about and have fun here. If bitcoin survives, the network will be much bigger than it is today, therefore the value will be much higher than today's.
Read more. Actually understand what you are speculating on...
Not a bad place to start...
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/why-bitcoin-will-continue-to-grow/I think we have entered the sweet spot...the damped oscillator has pretty much come to rest - finally...and now we are seeing low volume and much lower volatility - and I expect it to continue for the next bend the river. My bollinger bands are closing down, and that is good. Now we can actually begin building a base for the next major move. Could be a week, or a couple of months as in past years. I really don't know what that will look like this time, but I'm guessing it is going to be fun...