All posts made by HyphyBTC in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 15384246 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):

A few thing people here don't seem to understand:

Most buying is done off exchanges and OTC. By a wide margin too.

China is not leading this market.

No fee Chinese exchanges are being used to "control" the market, because bots are linked and people think China is leading the market.

Bitfinex is linked to Chinese exchanges to provide liquidity. Just like when BFX was linked to Stamp. That is why some full orderbooks are not shown. When a large drop occurs on Chinese exchanges the volume stays within the range, while Bitfinex drops with larger volume than normal. This is a combination of bot manipulation and Bitfinex offering liquidity.

The rise to nearly 800 was one entity, the OTC sellers and buyers waited until this entity was done and then plopped up over 25K BTC in ask walls, now it's up to 35K. The 35K BTC is a mix of real coins and borrowed coins for sale. You can see this by looking at the full order book, you notice the amounts for sale at XXX.37 repeatedly at every dollar interval? There are other patterns you will see as well.

The OTC buyers put sell pressure on BFX to keep the price down, so their OTC purchase will save them millions, by only making people who look at exchanges think we aren't mooning yet. Without their "fake" sell pressure we would be at ATH.

OTC firms do not care about this "manipulation" because they get a percentage in BTC and know that they will sell much more BTC OTC when the price is reasonable and not mooning. OTC firms might also be in on the fake sell pressure.

My guess is currently someone wants to buy OTC in the $650 range, or an OTC firm is seeing an influx of customers and is easier to just have stable prices for everyone Brexiting or running from their fiat market.

The Bitfinex "malfunction" was deliberate. Using statements from above you can see that dropping the Chinese exchanges prices are easy, causing all the longs on BFX to be force liquidated. Well guess who bought up all those coins that were liquidated while also putting the price back in their range? BFX has a ton of fees in BTC to sell, and guess how they do it? That's right, mostly OTC. And if a buyer says "no way I'm paying $700+ for those coins when the price has only been at this level for a week", then BFX has only one thing to do, bring the price back down in the OTC range.

Long term holders like myself, 4+ years, know this is going on and don't really care about exchange rates YET, because one day millions of small buyers who will only use exchanges will overpower any manipulation put forth by OTC markets and online exchanges.



2. Post 15386019 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 27, 2016, 06:27:40 PM
A few thing people here don't seem to understand:

Most buying is done off exchanges and OTC. By a wide margin too.

China is not leading this market.

No fee Chinese exchanges are being used to "control" the market, because bots are linked and people think China is leading the market.

Bitfinex is linked to Chinese exchanges to provide liquidity. Just like when BFX was linked to Stamp. That is why some full orderbooks are not shown. When a large drop occurs on Chinese exchanges the volume stays within the range, while Bitfinex drops with larger volume than normal. This is a combination of bot manipulation and Bitfinex offering liquidity.

The rise to nearly 800 was one entity, the OTC sellers and buyers waited until this entity was done and then plopped up over 25K BTC in ask walls, now it's up to 35K. The 35K BTC is a mix of real coins and borrowed coins for sale. You can see this by looking at the full order book, you notice the amounts for sale at XXX.37 repeatedly at every dollar interval? There are other patterns you will see as well.

The OTC buyers put sell pressure on BFX to keep the price down, so their OTC purchase will save them millions, by only making people who look at exchanges think we aren't mooning yet. Without their "fake" sell pressure we would be at ATH.

OTC firms do not care about this "manipulation" because they get a percentage in BTC and know that they will sell much more BTC OTC when the price is reasonable and not mooning. OTC firms might also be in on the fake sell pressure.

My guess is currently someone wants to buy OTC in the $650 range, or an OTC firm is seeing an influx of customers and is easier to just have stable prices for everyone Brexiting or running from their fiat market.

The Bitfinex "malfunction" was deliberate. Using statements from above you can see that dropping the Chinese exchanges prices are easy, causing all the longs on BFX to be force liquidated. Well guess who bought up all those coins that were liquidated while also putting the price back in their range? BFX has a ton of fees in BTC to sell, and guess how they do it? That's right, mostly OTC. And if a buyer says "no way I'm paying $700+ for those coins when the price has only been at this level for a week", then BFX has only one thing to do, bring the price back down in the OTC range.

Long term holders like myself, 4+ years, know this is going on and don't really care about exchange rates YET, because one day millions of small buyers who will only use exchanges will overpower any manipulation put forth by OTC markets and online exchanges.


You surely know a lot for a newbie, and there may be a lot of truth in what you are saying.

Nonetheless, we need to consider some of these kinds of claims with a grain of salt because they are so conspiratorial, including the assertion that the most recent bitfinex outages were on purpose.

Furthermore, many of us, just like you, recognize that ongoing pressure for coins by regular people does place limits to the extent to which prices can be downwardly manipulated - even when there may be a considerable amount of over the counter (OTC) BTC purchasing transactions.   As you suggest, the OTC buy pressures on the price to be upwards remains indirect, rather than direct.

Im not a newbie, I've been here since the first wall observer thread that is no longer used. Those were the days! My old account "hyphymikey" is no longer usable after this site was hacked a while back using the avatars or whatever it was. I was f@cking almost to Legendary status too, was just waiting on the random post thingy to get my promotion, then the site went down, then they said that I had to pay to get my account back or some shit. I had since moved to the other forum, but just wanted to post my thoughts here.



3. Post 15390134 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on June 28, 2016, 01:14:23 AM
^^ Reads like Vinny Lingham's blog piece from yesterday ... HyphyBTC (aka hyphymikey) is Vinny?

Most certainly not lol. I'm pretty sure if you read my old post history under hyphymikey, you will see me talking about this years ago. I haven't looked back at the history lately, but I'm pretty sure I've talked about it in this thread.



4. Post 15496953 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):

Low volume bot trading in China manages to bring the price down with big volume on other exchanges. They don't even try to hide the manipulation, but I don't blame them, traders are blind anyways.

China, with Huobi, its "leading exchange because of volume" drops with around 500 BTC traded, while Bitfinex drops with around 6000 BTC traded. Whats even funnier is that Bitstamp had more volume on this dip than Huobi. The day these Chinese exchanges have fees is the day the whales lose their surefire way to eat up all you minnows.



5. Post 15530268 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):

Off-topic:

My most used day trading tool, the all important Apple Watch.

http://i.imgur.com/SrCBWES.jpg

Edit: I guess I can't post images yet. Can I have my old account back please?



6. Post 15530425 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on July 09, 2016, 11:54:21 PM
Off-topic:
...

Edit: I guess I can't post images yet. Can I have my old account back please?

Cited to display image for Hyphy... ... very simple, interface, I see.
That was very kind of you  Smiley

 Angry Angry

Reported.

I don't get it. Are you a troll?



7. Post 15530776 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):

Too many whales just sitting on their hands not doing anything.

Who will be brave enough to act first?

All I know is the first to act will be the one that ultimately loses.



8. Post 15763503 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):

Quote from: yefi on July 31, 2016, 03:02:46 AM
The scary part: the only substance I know of transported by rail that would cause mondo tanker suck like that is oleum,
In a form also known as cryogenic sulfuric acid.
Commonly used as a crude oil refining catalyst:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleum

I'm pretty sure they don't ship LN2 by rail either.

Apparently, the collapse was a demonstration of a vacuum which could be caused during unloading if the relief valves were jammed.

+1

I used to work in the petroleum and chemical refinery business. This video was shown numerous times in safety meetings and classes. What's surprising is, those tankers aren't suited for vacuum, and very little was needed to crush that one like a soda can.



9. Post 15782826 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):

1 of the 3 whales in bitcoin got bored I see. I wonder why he decided to dump and not pump? He must be stop-hunting some of the open longs, which isn't near as profitable as pump and dumping. But when you have insider knowledge a buck earned is a buck earned right?



10. Post 15783111 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on August 02, 2016, 12:13:31 AM
http://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-first-employee-hedge-fund/

Quote
... Olaf Carlson-Wee, the first employee at venture-backed bitcoin exchange Coinbase, has departed as head of risk ... manager

not trying to spread rumours, but just saying, when head of risk manager hits the road then the risks were probably not being managed that well, which usually means ... yup, big losses

He left to start his own hedge fund, he didn't quit out of nowhere. Stop spreading FUD like you always do.



11. Post 15784823 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):

If anybody needs proof of "whales"

http://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/public/@lrenforcementactions/documents/legalpleading/enfbfxnaorder060216.pdf

"However, corporate users compromised a significant portion of Bitfinex's trading volume during the Relevant Period. In 2015, 88% of the dollars deposited to and withdrawn from Bitfinex were by corporate users."

Bottom of page 3



12. Post 15784896 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 02, 2016, 04:43:17 AM
BillyJoeAllen was the only person I know that sold because of the block size. Speculators trade on price alone and traders are short term. Miners mine for profit in fiat not BTC, they aren't sitting on piles of BTC, if they were they wouldn't sell because you can't get free BTCC to sell for profit if you don't have BTC at the fork. Nobody is selling shit because of a hard fork. ETH fell due to DAO but barely moved once the fork happened weeks later. You people are delusional if you think that's why the price is moving. Whales and exchanges move the price, them and only them. All of you other small fish just try to keep up, and they use it to their benefit. If everyone hodls they lose.


Yeah, I generally agree with you about the whales; however, if it was about the whales, they would have preferred to keep prices below $500, which they were not able to do.

Do you think that we are returning below $500 anytime soon, and do you believe that "the whales" are going to be able to keep prices below $500 for any sustainable period of time?

The failed to keep it under $500 part.... Whales can take a break from time to time. With the insider knowledge they have, they know when a large sum of fiat enters an exchange, and can either front run or at least hold of selling. When they see the "newcomer" is done buying they can sell for a profit. That's what we are seeing now. What's better than a pump and dump? One where someone else does the pumping and you do the dumping. It makes for much greater profit than any other method. You might even coax the newcomer into selling at a loss, and profit from that too. I just made a post here about BFX being 88% corporate aka whales, when this falls under 50% they lose all their power. So expect to see this over and over.

Bringing it back under $500 seems like a 30% chance to me, as in if they will only barely break into the high $400s. I think they have no incentive to do it because margin longs are so heavily backed that we would need $300s to see a significant margin call of longs. I'm thinking sideways between $580 and $620 until another newcomer enters or we see another hype cycle.



13. Post 17238665 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):

Interesting to see 1K BTC on the ask side to $800 on Bitfinex, Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit, and BTC-E.



14. Post 17272100 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: Loaded on December 23, 2016, 04:41:29 AM
Soon.

Uh oh



15. Post 17272128 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: byronbb on December 23, 2016, 04:52:15 AM
Wow this thread still exists? I was here in the good old days of $5 and $10.

Back in the original wall observer thread. I got there at $13 but I agree, good ol days!



16. Post 17285674 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: spooderman on December 24, 2016, 11:29:23 AM
anyone care to establish a rough estimate of how many hours from now the situation will remain critical?

23 hours and 59 minutes?



17. Post 17331733 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: AZwarel on December 29, 2016, 01:47:12 AM
That 1700 BTC wall on stamp looks totally phony..i wonder how many actual buys it is going to be to reach 1000$, at the price of 980$ why would suddenly there be a huge sell-off when the trend is obviously gonna be way higher than a mere 1k$?

Some walls are put up to stall the price to give time for fiat deposits to show up, some walls are put up to gobble any coins front running to get more coins in a certain range, some walls are put up by buyers who want the effect of crossing $1000 to be bigger. It's either something like that or they are crazy.



18. Post 17338706 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

They load up the ask side and take away from the bid side as if we don't know its all the same entity trying to scare us into selling our coins.



19. Post 17339491 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: Kramerc on December 29, 2016, 07:38:20 PM
Wow, buy side has collapsed on finex. This will be interesting!

The walls are frequently put up in the opposite direction to the way the price will move. Stepped sell walls on finex could be a signal the price is going up.

I'd be more worried for the 14.5k BTC in red shorts. ATH shorts in $ terms and I think the worst ever ratio to the longs ($21mm).

Thats why the sell side is huge, the shorts don't want to get squeezed. Almost the entire sell side is shorts waiting to be filled, so they "try" to safeguard already open shorts while "trying" to short the top as well. It usually never ends well for them in a bull market, but Im not going to tell a bear that.



20. Post 17364895 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: magicmexican on January 01, 2017, 06:02:17 PM
And look at the volume. This is not rally level volume. Things are just starting.

Thats because its a manipulation. But i like how you spin it to a positive note  Smiley

How much did you pay for this account?



21. Post 17365037 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):

Quote from: magicmexican on January 01, 2017, 06:13:27 PM
And look at the volume. This is not rally level volume. Things are just starting.

Thats because its a manipulation. But i like how you spin it to a positive note  Smiley

How much did you pay for this account?

About 0.05btc, way more than i did for your mom.

You don't even have that many btc



22. Post 17402033 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

My guess is all those shorts start liquidating on Finex above $1150, so they are trying their hardest to keep it under. I will be ready for fireworks once its breaks.



23. Post 17402418 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: HyphyBTC on January 05, 2017, 02:28:37 AM
My guess is all those shorts start liquidating on Finex above $1150, so they are trying their hardest to keep it under. I will be ready for fireworks once its breaks.

Confirmed. They keep fighting it.



24. Post 19011563 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):

Quote from: Meuh6879 on May 13, 2017, 05:43:22 PM
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/1109/qC4LQ5.gif

I can not buy cheap bitcoins on monday !




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http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/167/kjGLmL.gif

Just wait until after the ETF decision on Monday.



25. Post 20884411 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.17h):

Quote from: deepcolderwallet on August 15, 2017, 03:30:55 AM
Quote
All Crypto Market Cap.: $141.005.766.671
BTC Market Cap.........: $73.090.413.146
BTC Dominance.........:  51.8%

Can you get this stat from a week ago. Would be interesting to see the BTC Cap %, then.

Alts are falling flat from a week ago, naturally lol

On August 6th BTC Market Cap was $53,014,691,482 BTC Price was $3214.71 (https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20170806/)

Hey that's cool, but I don't see what % of total market BTC was, then. Maybe its there, or the Total market cap from that snapshot page as well.

I could be blind lol, I'm really tired

True, % BTC Dominance is missing for historical.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

47% dominance a week ago



26. Post 20885481 (copy this link) (by HyphyBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.17h):

Trend lines don't matter when Grayscale needs to buy 100's of millions worth of BTC for their IPO.