All posts made by Rockford in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1863835 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
2.
Post 1864452 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
the cat is neither dead nor alive...schrödingers bitcoin i'ld say
3.
Post 1864485 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
4.
Post 1878734 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
almost 1k buy atm...
5.
Post 1878775 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
nom nom nom
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Post 1879892 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
7.
Post 1896724 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
here we go!
8.
Post 1896786 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
here we go!
136.43 is the number to look for. That is the highest BTC has been since the minimum at 50.01 $/
BTC.
wait for it....
9.
Post 1896856 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
i think the wallobserver-fork is a pity...
i miss the other guys, it got so quiet in here.
10.
Post 1896924 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
so rally starts at saturdays now?
whats going on lol let me have some break will ya ..
oh and the wall observer split forum thing.. not liking it.. i want drama and fun to be all in the same place
Agreed. We need a new platform to handle such a thing. Like IRC on steroids or something.
ADAM? Just say the word and we all are healed!
+1
11.
Post 1901904 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
i think the wallobserver-fork is a pity...
i miss the other guys, it got so quiet in here.
I'm here, it's just that I have nothing to say that would adhere to the rules. There can only be one wall observer thread and it seems people decided to go with the more restricted one.
Strange.
i think its just delivering more information on the status quo.
while the old one was both: fun AND informative (everybody loved the old one)
the softcore-thread focused to much on its opposing role and didnt actually deliver the
spirit of the original, which is why people rather choose strict information - which is atleast its main purpose - over funny posts
also regarding the restrictions, i had the feeling they got loose...
anyway:
adam you should unite our brothers now and make a statement
... please
How about renaming: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker UNITED
and letting the new restrictions aside?
PS: the fact that people discuss this issue in a thread where nothing else than marketmovements should be discussed is rather ironic.
12.
Post 1901920 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
you do know a while back adam posted saying, to paraphrase, "ah screw it." effectively saying to go at it as we wish, in this thread? please don't make me search it.
you are right: (also) i found this
sorry for all the confusion guys.
i will not be deleting any posts here
this is just the new thread because the old was was just too big.
13.
Post 1901943 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
i will break silence now and proclaim the:
Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Unitedbecause:
14.
Post 1913005 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Some nice pressure on the $124 and $125 Ask walls.
Also. I haven't been posting in this thread because, well, generally what I posted in the old WO thread would have been strictly off-topic.
Are we back to random graphics here then?
knock yourself out
15.
Post 1913097 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
16.
Post 1920491 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Sent money to the exchange today. Prices are bound to go up with at least 25% the next 2 days with my luck.
Shall I sell my
BTC, that would make the price explode for sure!
I find these indicators to be the most reliable, far better than all the TA. My theory is: "The price moves in the direction that creates the most grief for the highest amount of people."
Right! Financial markets are zero-sum games. If a trader makes a profit, there is a corresponding loss somewhere else. Pareto's Principal, I think applies to the proportion of traders that profit the most, i.e. 20% of traders make 80% of profit. Accordingly, most traders suffer - they may profit but not as much as the 'average'.
isn't that why we love our bears so much?
17.
Post 1933775 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
According to the mtgox walls, 23 Million USD takes us to a BTC valuation over $1000. Not a lot of money in the whole scheme of things.
You should know that means nothing.
FACT: according to the order book, someone willing to cash out just 18 Million USD takes us to a BTC valuation in the low single digits. Not a lot of money in the whole scheme of things.
Imagine satoshi decides to cash out the 1M
BTC he has, because is time for him to retire. Yes, you know what would happen: BTC would suddenly go to 0. And that will happen, sooner or later, because nobody can wait to be rich forever. Just pray that the market depth will be 10,000 times bigger than now, so we just go to low double digits when he decides to sell, and not straight to 0.
If he is smart enough to invent bitcoins, he is smart enough to sell responsibly. I believe.
Well, I would be more confortable if he would have moved some coins, gradually. He never moved A SINGLE COIN according to the blockchain. Not even at the peak of 2011 bubble, not even at $200 BTC/USD.
Frankly, people sees this as "this guy really believes in
BTC potential!", but sometimes that just makes me doubt of his sanity. If he never moved a single coin in all his life, he is very well capable of dumping them suddenly. That's how I see it, and many times I think that he will destroy what he created in that way.
And remember that nobody can wait forever to be filthy rich.
Hope it's just a nightmare tough
hm ..not sure about this.
if I put myself in his/their position I would rather think that every move I made with my BTC would more likely be percieved as an unnatural event and cause negative assumptions.
I think staying low-key is the best he/they can do, because it changes nothing.
and we don't know anything about him, so no need to think he needs/wants to cash out, especially when his idea implies that you can purchase everything in BTC in the future.
also...who says, he just owns one wallet
18.
Post 1949839 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
19.
Post 1954829 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Meh.
It's hard to recall a more stable day than this one in the past 4 months...
...it's pleasant isn't it?
20.
Post 1959073 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
21.
Post 1995782 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
thinking of this just sideways...
this might be something like a new, richkid computergame...
i would call it the Winklevii pong
22.
Post 1996301 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
So any educated guesses where we're headed if 120 falls?
ManBearPigs charts concerning the trendline could "proove" itself the next days.
Dont want to talk the price down but my guts are telling my 120 isn't holding any much longer.
23.
Post 2015412 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
If there indeed is another leg down, and it has similar dimensions, then we could see an approach down to $70 in about 24 hours.
However volume typically drops off on Friday afternoon and over the weekend. The bottom of the capitulation may not therefore occur until Monday. Back in August 2011 the bottom of the first and greatest capitulation was a massive, high volume sell off, dropping the last 15% in two hours - which is the sort of volume one could expect on Monday.
agreed.
or the big manipulator behind this is tricking masses into that thought and has some other plans for the weekend
I got out at a pretty comfortable at 125 and now wait for a convincing entrypoint somewehre in the future.
I wont bother about catching the exact bottom as I am long for 99% of my BTC
24.
Post 2031008 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician
It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!
At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).
At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.
However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!
FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.
$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50) = 2.31
sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45
$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
$79 * 1.45 = $114.5
$50 * 2.31 = $115.2
Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!
+1
I had the same conclusion/theory/gut feeling
25.
Post 2048135 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
epic.
26.
Post 2048147 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
this might be the chinese take over of bitcoin
27.
Post 2051948 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
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Post 2065933 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
29.
Post 2091502 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
I am truly intrigued by the movement the last three days... and I was actually quite productive with my work
I think if there are new people to the market they might enjoy this price "stability" and consider buying in if they were waiting for an entry point.
Bitcoin was especially scary the days before.
Did anyone read from Loaded? I have a feeling he might show up the next days...
30.
Post 2092767 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Bitcoin confrences are the most anti-climatic non-news events of the year. Ohhh Gavin tell us why you like Bitcoin. Gavin why do you hate colored coins? 54 satoshi's? Really?
Bitcoin hype coming from the Bitcoin confrence isn't going to move the needle. Gyft news, top VC is backing his first company in two years and it's Coinbase, and everyone goes "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz". Won't be any news topping those two stories.
+1
31.
Post 2096473 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
1.click link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u8f55WWxPk2.look at picture
hope nobody went short
edit: grammar and stuff
32.
Post 2096515 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Bulls, wait before claiming victory, we could turn back down quickly.
agreed, but mocking bears is just so much fun
but I think theres a good chance we stay on bear-mocking-justifying highs for today
33.
Post 2147866 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Mtgox trading engine lag: 37049m 45s
maybe a bug
I've seen this happen on occasion the last week or so. Even at points where there was about 5 or 6 seconds of lag it would jump randomly to that 100000m lag.
I also noticed these random numbers...
34.
Post 2147909 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
some bears are going to get burned ...severley
35.
Post 2148023 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
some bears are going to get burned ...severley
The odd thing is, if you think MtGox is about to get owned by the US Govt, you need to BUY bitcoins and move them off the exchange.
This was my thought too. This also leads to the theory that it's really just a couple guys trying to manipulate and buy back more coinage then they started with.
well lets wait how this ones playing out... I am holding this one for now
36.
Post 2179470 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
here we go
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Post 2183725 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
38.
Post 2244069 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
up for me, gentlemen
39.
Post 2245075 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
OK summary time:
-Asks are dropping
-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour
-We are still at 125, though on low volume, nothing pulled it back this time
-Low Volume german exchange bitcoin.de: availaible Coins steadily decreasing
-Recent Good news not priced in yet ( i think)
-No Apocalypse regarding the dwolla issue
-Another spike in Chinas interest this week (yeah i wouldn't call it a hype either, but you get the idea)
Bullish to me, see you at the top.
40.
Post 2245316 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour
Unfortunately I do not see that. Bid sum at Bitstamp was $955k a few days ago. Now its $1.05M. That's a tiny improvement. And it is still a joke compared with the $20M sitting on Gox's order book.
Yes, you are right.
I was thinking of the bids that were put up recently, opposing the huge asks we have there, effectively weakening the selling pressure a bit.
Unfortunately I dont have any recent data and I might be proven wrong.
Still
I think a subtle rise to 130 is imminent. Expect it to happen in the next 2 hours.
I am also curious about how the spread between the exchanges will play a role in the next movements.
I think its too early to state that Bitstamp might take over, Gox still has credibility and only time will show if people are eager to test another exchange for its limits.
Disclaimer: I have no fiat on the exchanges, I made a 20 BTC purchase @ 87€ a couple of days ago for spending within the next weeks, so of course a steady rise would be appreciated
41.
Post 2353575 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Earlier this morning, about 4 million was dumped within 30 minutes, right? According to Bitcoinity, it would only take a 12.5 million dump on gox to slide all the way down to $20. Am I reading this chart correct?
I realize 12.5 mil is not likely to be dumped all at once. But still... $20 doesn't seem that far away.
Almost 1% of the total bitcoins that exist.
I think a proportionaly large sell offer of any other currency would have the same effect to that currency.
soon....
(mainstream adoption:selling dollar for bitcoins)
42.
Post 2353705 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Earlier this morning, about 4 million was dumped within 30 minutes, right? According to Bitcoinity, it would only take a 12.5 million dump on gox to slide all the way down to $20. Am I reading this chart correct?
I realize 12.5 mil is not likely to be dumped all at once. But still... $20 doesn't seem that far away.
Almost 1% of the total bitcoins that exist.
I think a proportionaly large sell offer of any other currency would have the same effect to that currency.
soon....
(mainstream adoption:selling dollar for bitcoins) Unfortunately USD doesn't need Bitcoin. By itself, it does a great job free falling.
yes.. and I am worried about the implications.
43.
Post 3096627 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
And 125 is broken....
I think it will be the new bottom.
44.
Post 3502205 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Hey guys,
its been a while... did I miss somethi.....HOLY SHIT!
45.
Post 3502285 (copy this link) (by Rockford) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
If only I was the guy with 10.000 BTC.
I would've hold to them strong.
In a couple of hours these Coins will be scattered amongst buyers in China.
