All posts made by ZephramC in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 5553230 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
Not yet, there is a planned number that's not yet reached...
Do you really think satoshi would have imagined that bitcoin would reach $1000 when he first started?
IF he had a planned number, im pretty sure we have already reached it.
Are you telling me that it even doesn't make sense to Satoshi that bitcoins price is this high?
Depends on your view. Do you really think that satoshi thought bitcoin would go to $1000 when he started at $0?
I think that Satoshi thought that bitcoin will go to $1000 and not stop there. I thing that Satoshi estimated bitcoin maximum final price to be either $160 000 (replacing annual VISA volume) or $330 000 (replacing gold) or $800 000 (replacing USA GNP). He did not estimate bitcoin to go over $4 500 000 (If all the world economy was converted to bitcoins.).
2.
Post 6093706 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
There is another real-life problem with Martingale. Repeatability. Even with perfect 50/50 game and no limit to stakes.
Imagine you start with $100 and play for 10 rounds. (100, 200, 400, 800, ..., 51 200). You need capital of $102300 to do that. This is quite a lot, but you can borrow this or use your house as collateral. It is very probable that you will win $100 this way. Probability is 99.90234375%. So far no problem. So you decide to make money this way and play every day (including weekends). Hundred dollars per day is good.
When you loose, you loose all $102300. The odds of such loosing is less than 0.1% for single game. If you do this for a month, 30 times, then the odds of loosing "some of the days" is about 2.8886%. Still nothing to worry about (perhaps). You will quit your job and go every day to casino. After a year (365 runs of your strategy) there is 30% probability of loosing all $102300 while you earned about third of this amount 365x$100=36500. You might be tempted to repeat this strategy more times in a day (lets say 10 times) to earn more every day. Then you will arrive at this probability faster, in 37 days in this case.
After 512 days (or 512 runs of your strategy) when you would earn enough to repay half of your debt, the probability of loosing all is 40%. After 1023 days (or 1023 runs of your strategy) when you could actually break even, the probability of loosing all and be unable to continue is 63.2%.
So it is more likely that you will end with a loss than with a profit.
3.
Post 6370561 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?
And why its goes down ? I dont see any bad news, and china's schedule for Global Bitcoin Summit 2014 in Beijing is coming up...
Because there is a small group of people with a lot of coins who want to take us down.
It can't be more obvious. The market actually wants to go up. But every single time we go up a bit there is a big dump. Pure manipulation.
I have no idea who these people are. I'm not into conspiracies but it stinks.
If 2013 is any guide, it takes 5 months from the capitulation bottom to reach the new high. Of that, 3 months nothing happened. So this month nothing will happen, May nothing will happen, June nothing will happen, July something will start to happen, August, latest September we are at $7.
Argh, how is it possible to wait 0.25 more YEARS, after all, it is 90 days, more than 2000 hours!! I want my candy NOW!!1
What? You mean $7 as seven dolars "new high"?
4.
Post 6371171 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
This day in Bitcoin price history:
April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10 (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20 (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00 (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)
Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.
feels like the train has been long gone.
Is what people thought exactly one year ago.
And they will be thinking the same in 2015, in 2016 and in 2040 too.
5.
Post 6385814 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Why is USD appreciating so much this morning? And EUR and CNY?
6.
Post 6428448 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
What would convince bears to be bulls and what would convince bulls to be bears?
For bears: How long should bitcoin price rise and to what price that we can call this dip over?
For bulls: How low must bitcoin fall before someone agree that it will never reach more than 1000USD again until several years from now?
7.
Post 6479225 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
excuse for the noob question,
so a red candle on wisdom means more sell volume than buy volume?
and a red candle can be higher (than previous candles)due to a a higher sell price?
Just means that the opening price was higher than the closing price, it has nothing to do with volume.
thx!
but the lenght of the candle has to do with the volume i suppose
No. It has to do with difference between opening price and closing price. Actually candle height IS difference between opening and closing price.
8.
Post 6667574 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
9.
Post 6669574 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
Don't bet on that. This could be the last chance to buy < $450.
So this time it is the last last last last chance
Could be.
I think there will be plenty of chances to buy < $450 until July.
10.
Post 6691080 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Still can't get it to work. Sorry if my fault. Can you perhaps shorten the link with bitly and send that?
You can always simply go to
http://bitscan.com/ and find article there.
11.
Post 6730232 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
Hmm, 300-350 rpietila says, in 7 days he says. Lets see.
12.
Post 6730306 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
Hmm, 300-350 rpietila says, in 7 days he says. Lets see.
he says a 7% chance.
you feeling lucky?
I own more BTC than 99.9% of the world population combined. Of course I am feeling lucky!
... There are no more than 7 000 000 BTC holders, right?
13.
Post 6741567 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
You guys fail at math.
He's saying that he has more bitcoin than 99.9% of the people in the world, in other words he has more bitcoin than 6 993 000 000 other persons, and probably more.
In fact the figures are even more in his favor as there's probably less than 7 000 000 bitcoin users, but for his initial statement to be true (he owns more bitcoin than 99.9% of the world population combined) only less than 7 000 000 need to own bitcoin.
And if he has at least 0.1 btc there are at most 500k people richer than him in btc terms
>
Those numbers can make even the smaller
BTC holder feel a bit better.
Suddenly, I feel better.
14.
Post 7141512 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.50h):
If BTCChina is dead then why the volume is quite high (~100BTC/hour) there?
15.
Post 8455626 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
stop wasting ammo
target 490
its not like the bear has a choice.
Bear can choose 457 in 8 hours.
16.
Post 8458890 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
stop wasting ammo
target 490
its not like the bear has a choice.
Bear can choose 457 in 8 hours.
OK. My second guess is stoping at 555-560 for a while.
17.
Post 9000932 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
How low would you like it? Is there a price from which Bitcoin wouldn't recover?
Interesting question. ... Is there a
non-negative price from which Bitcoin couldn't recover?
18.
Post 9319709 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.26h):
There are actually two bitcoins. There’s the blockchain-technology bitcoin, which I think is fantastic, and the future, and all sorts of businesses are investing tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in Silicon Valley and around the world to build businesses on the back of the blockchain technology because it’s so wonderful and can move assets frictionlessly. But then there is this aspect of the pretend currency and the pretend commodity. Part of the con is in the pretend commodity, because this is a completely shallow, liquidless market. When you know that there’s, what, 13 million coins in circulation, and more than 50% of the them are owned and managed by about 950 people, you realize how shallow the market it is and how subject the market is to manipulation.
At last, someone with common sense explains the difference between the technology and the "currency" unit. Most of the get-rich-quick hardcore fanatics try to deceive people by telling how bitcoin's unit value is tied to the technology it's based on. The "currency" is nothing more then a big pyramid for a few to get rich at the expense of others.
The technology can be used without everyone having to make a small group of speculators rich. Speculators who haven't actually contributed anything to the development of the technology itself.
It's only an illusion that bitcoin's unit value is backed by the technology itself. I think that it's a good thing that some people will start to publicly lift the veil behind bitcoin and it's market system. I would recommend him to look into all the exchanges and question on what would stop them in playing the market themselves, with information that isn't public.
200 posts, do you realize the reward for maintaining the blockchain is bitcoin, and it's our job to make bitcoin widely used and valuable?
GET ABOARD SAILOR
That's the thing. The millions worth of equipment isn't needed to maintain the blockchain of bitcoin. Increasing hasrate of the network doesn't improve anything in the network. The general idea was that it would increase the security, but now most of the network goes through only a few pools, and if those pools get compromised, then the network will get compromised, no matter how big was the overall hashrate of the network. So, rewarding miners actually means rewarding work that has no use.
The bitcoin mining equipment merchants are practically snake oils salesmen who prey on the ignorance of consumers.
I'm on board "the crypto casino" already, only not in bitcoin, because bitcoin is old, boring and fragile to me. I'm now into newer cryptos, that have more attractive attributes and that are currently at the beginning stage, not the end stage.
All pools are dependend on thier individual members. Leaving pool or changing it is much easier than change a country you live in, change government you pay taxes to ot change bank you have your money in.
19.
Post 10026249 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Cheap coins are close :-).
20.
Post 10050751 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
I don't give a sh#@$t about Bitstamp, but I would prefer that their implosion doesn't send Bitcoin further down the drain.
Why not? Cheap coins
I mean, bitcoin won't die does it? Please,... tell me it won't die.
please
pleaseplease!Bitcoin won't die, but it will be a lot less useful. The infrastructure around it will probably die. And I respect you too much to tell you where you can shove your cheap coins.
Bitcoin will finally separate from fiat, will become much more useful, and its price in USD will have no significance.
21.
Post 13561964 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
I wonder...
If there is version of Bitcoin client which changes 21M BTC cap, increases block reward and blacklists some addresses... would you still use it if it were marketed under name "Bitcoin Original" or "Original Bitcoin" or "Satoshi's Bitcoin"?
22.
Post 13562323 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
Last chance of corrupted government(s) to kill bitcoin using their puppets in core dev group. A major, major economic crisis is knocking on the door and their time to ruin bitcoin is running out fast.
No need 4 gubermints to step in here, you Crypto enthusiasts seem to be doing fine all on your own.
"Embattled digital currency exchange Cryptsy is now claiming that it is insolvent.
The exchange alleges in a newly released blog post that it was the target of a hack in July 2014, an incident that it said cost it approximately 13,000 BTC ($7.5m at then prices) and approximately 300,000 LTC (then $2.08m).
"This of course was a critical event for Cryptsy, however at the time the website was earning more than it was spending and we still have some reserves of those cryptocurrencies on hand. The decision was made to pull from our profits to fill these wallets back up over time, thus attempting to avert complete closure of the website at that time.""
Fractional reserve. Because it works
Cryptsy failed because Bitcoin works. Gee, I hope this post isn't deleted too.
By "works," you mean "makes shit like Cryptsy possible"?
Anything can be exchanged in a custodial exchange. Poor performance is no excuse for bailouts.
Anything could be exchanged in an
unregulated Magic: The Gathering sort of an exchange, you mean? Nonexistent shit for worthless shit & back again, in a frictionless market, due to plenty of tears & snot lubrication?
Well, yeah you got me there. I'm not a fan of these exchanges. OTOH, the global stock market is crashing so, the bailouts didn't work there either.
Sure. Last time DOW fell 10% in 24 hrs is when?
Like I said, I'm not a fan of these exchanges. They should be regulated like Wall Street so they shut down during flash crashes like this.
So what you're telling me is all this "trustless" bullshit is bullshit?
Bitcoin commerce needs government oversight, just like conventional fiat commerce?
So Bitcoin's basically, a fiat surrogate? only useless for 99.9% of IRL financial transactions?
WTF does trusting MTGOX have to do with Bitcoin? We've moved past that. Yes, MTGOX type exchanges that use fiat should be regulated. If they don't allow fiat, then they seem to work fine.
"We've moved past that"? Clearly we haven't, see: Cryptsy; Havelock.
No fiat. Plenty of scam.
Custodial exchanges. Try exchanging with crypto's advanced features instead of trusting non regulated anonymous entities.
What is the problem with Havelock?
23.
Post 13562396 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
Last chance of corrupted government(s) to kill bitcoin using their puppets in core dev group. A major, major economic crisis is knocking on the door and their time to ruin bitcoin is running out fast.
No need 4 gubermints to step in here, you Crypto enthusiasts seem to be doing fine all on your own.
"Embattled digital currency exchange Cryptsy is now claiming that it is insolvent.
The exchange alleges in a newly released blog post that it was the target of a hack in July 2014, an incident that it said cost it approximately 13,000 BTC ($7.5m at then prices) and approximately 300,000 LTC (then $2.08m).
"This of course was a critical event for Cryptsy, however at the time the website was earning more than it was spending and we still have some reserves of those cryptocurrencies on hand. The decision was made to pull from our profits to fill these wallets back up over time, thus attempting to avert complete closure of the website at that time.""
Fractional reserve. Because it works
Cryptsy failed because Bitcoin works. Gee, I hope this post isn't deleted too.
By "works," you mean "makes shit like Cryptsy possible"?
Anything can be exchanged in a custodial exchange. Poor performance is no excuse for bailouts.
Anything could be exchanged in an
unregulated Magic: The Gathering sort of an exchange, you mean? Nonexistent shit for worthless shit & back again, in a frictionless market, due to plenty of tears & snot lubrication?
Well, yeah you got me there. I'm not a fan of these exchanges. OTOH, the global stock market is crashing so, the bailouts didn't work there either.
Sure. Last time DOW fell 10% in 24 hrs is when?
Like I said, I'm not a fan of these exchanges. They should be regulated like Wall Street so they shut down during flash crashes like this.
So what you're telling me is all this "trustless" bullshit is bullshit?
Bitcoin commerce needs government oversight, just like conventional fiat commerce?
So Bitcoin's basically, a fiat surrogate? only useless for 99.9% of IRL financial transactions?
WTF does trusting MTGOX have to do with Bitcoin? We've moved past that. Yes, MTGOX type exchanges that use fiat should be regulated. If they don't allow fiat, then they seem to work fine.
"We've moved past that"? Clearly we haven't, see: Cryptsy; Havelock.
No fiat. Plenty of scam.
Custodial exchanges. Try exchanging with crypto's advanced features instead of trusting non regulated anonymous entities.
Which would you recommend? Let's say I want to sell 20 BTC for fiat/another coin?
@ZephramC: its track record of empoverishing intrepid investors. You must be new.
I am not new. But perhaps I missed something. You mean companies listed on Havelock empoverishing or the Havelock itself<
24.
Post 13616349 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.41h):
People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.
AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.
All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.
Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...
Which idiots are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork? Almost all custody coins are going to be going back to their rightful owners before a contentious hardfork, the free market will do its job no?
Why leave the vote with the third party holders which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage for yourself?
*edited.
Is there any reliable information about which exchanges WILL NOT support the fork? I have already tried to start a list
here, but no contributions yet...
25.
Post 13670667 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
i see blocksize fighting is still flooding all the threads ...
opponents of bitcoin will not ...
their incentive to fight seriously is low. they yawn. ...
Unless blocksize fighting isn't (in a part) actually their fight.
26.
Post 13681546 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
Ok. So let me get this straight.
You are walking up a hill, with a knapsack on your back filled with 4 concrete blocks. Its tough going.
A guy comes up to you ( lets call him Adam) and says "Don''t be a fool, let me make that easier for you".
So the guy removes 2 of the blocks from the knapsack, and puts them under your arms instead.
"Now", says the guy, "Isnt that much easier? You have half the weight, and lots of extra capacity in your bag - win-win, eh?"
"But its the exact same weight! - in fact its a little more difficult to carry these under my arms"
Guy says, "Dont be an idiot - look at your bag. Thats clear evidence of the improvement"
"Oh, i guess...."
Replace concrete blocks by (expanded) polystyrene blocks. Or with inflatable toy blocks with handles.
Whether current content of Bitcoin-blocks is closer to concrete or to inflatable toys with (easy to carry) handles, that is matter of perspective.
27.
Post 13682746 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
if it reaches $1000 i will dump 150btc, call it a day and do something else with my life. even if it reaches the sun later, no regrets. ive tried enough
Many people will dump around $1000. That is psychological resistance. See
the dumps of 27/11 - 28/11 2013.
28.
Post 13683492 (copy this link) (by ZephramC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
if it reaches $1000 i will dump 150btc, call it a day and do something else with my life. even if it reaches the sun later, no regrets. ive tried enough
Many people will dump around $1000. That is psychological resistance. See
the dumps of 27/11 - 28/11 2013.
It's rather logical. That's why I always put my orders a few dollars before the too round numbers xD
That is why dumps also occur at prices like 950$, 1050$, 1040$.
