There is not enough bid volume (see blockchained.com) to pass 150.

Let's stabilize in the 140s a couple of hours and then we will attack the great wall

134 wall getting eaten.

For me, there is someone trying to stabilize the price in the mid-130s. Someone big. Perhaps MtGox?

That makes sense. But there is someone trying to drive the price up. Reminds me to a similar situation in the 60s just after the -> 53 crash.

Could also be a classic bull - bear fight. Now bear has dumped 2k to 131 - we'll see if bull reacts.

Seems you are right, a low-volume buy brought price again to 133-134.

Time to do other things ...

mega buy, back to 102.

I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124.

@Coinseeker: Bitcoin can be compared to the "currencies" of barter clubs. There are barter organizations in many countries, including nearly all western ones. Another "currencies" that are similar are flight miles. There is nothing illegal with that, many multi-million-dollar companies use them.

This "Get-out-of-Gox" yankee-rally won't last long

My guess: We are going to 90 and then up again, but much slower. Will not reach 120 until ~ 1 month from now.

Bitcoins are legal and tax-free in Germany! BUY BUY BUY!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=243656.0

The 2011 hack was after the crash.

I am pretty bullish now. I think we can retest the 220 area, but it won't go lower for now.

But we will also not going much higher. It must stay a bit on the 220-250 level, until we can riiiiiiise again

(PS: voted for "No")

Voted for $230. I think there will not be harsh movements in price until May. And if $210-15 can hold, the price probably will get a little bit higher. Of course, I can be wrong.

I would wait a little bit. If price goes not under $215 next days, I would start to buy at $220, but not all-in. I would never go all-in in such unstable conditions like now. 

My sentiment continues to be slightly bullish.

I think the bottom is in now ($215-20 has been touched several times) and optimism is growing in the forum. Psychology is important, so it could go up into the high 2xx's now.

PS: I see, my price prediction of $230 for May 1 was pretty good.

I actually like the slow upward movement with slight ups and downs. Bitcoin has finally found some stability despite of the growing optimism. It's possible a bubble will form, but I have got the impression this slow upward movement will just continue. (Not taking into account Black Swan events)

PS: voted for 260, as that would be the logical continuation of the slow upwards trend.

Seems the first attack on the 265-70 resistance failed. But the price is holding pretty good so far. Let's see if 250 can be held, then the prospects for July are great ...

Nevertheless, I voted for a July top of less than 300. I think it will reach again the levels of about 270, and maybe a little higher, but not much more. Black swan events not taken into account

It seems my prediction was right, we will not fall below the ~$250 level for now. I expect a "try" from shorters during this weekend, but it won't go lower than, maybe 245.

Then, we can take the next step and go to $270-80 level. There will be plenty of resistance so I expect to stay there until the end of July.

"The Oxi effect": $275 now.

I predict it will not go so much higher, so be careful. Some will dump. But I think that there is a great possibility for the price that $266 can hold - an historical mark.

My estimation of <300 was too pessimistic. But I think that there is not so much potential on the upside. There will be a dump soon, in my opinion, below $320. Look what happened to LTC and other altcoins.

But still, I'm mid-term bullish. Because the $265 level has held without any problems, and all old bitcoiners know it's a value of historical importance with great psychological significance. And that's what charts are about: psychology.

There is, however, a possibility of a larger dump because of the blockchain bloat problem.

My opinion: We're running into another sideways phase.

The "Oxi hype" is gone, as the Euro group has agreed with the Greek government. For Bitcoin, it was still a good marketing event, as now some more Greeks know about it.

But on the other hand, we're not seeing massive sell-outs. For the moment, I see only little danger of falling below ~$266. But it is perfectly possible we test these levels again.

If we can hold the ~$265 level, then the mid-term future is clearly bullish. But don't expect a fast $1000 rally.

My opinion is that we're seeing, for now, consolidation after a (relatively speaking) long bear market. There wasn't an attack on the important $265-66 level, so unless there is a problem with the blockchain / algorithm itself, I think probability is very low to get below these levels.

As some in the German forum remarked, the slight uptrend of the last 2 days was because of a simple TA speculation. We'll see if this uptrend can continue. I see not many chances to go over 320 for the next month as there is no other hype like the Greek "Oxi effect" in sight, but the short- and mid-term trend should be slightly bullish.

So much stability. At long-time charts you can see that the Bitcoin price is again in the same region as it was most days in the last months.

That's good, I think. There are many wishing a further crash to buy cheap, but my opinion stays the same: Every harsh price movement hurts Bitcoin's status as a "calculation unit", one of the basic functions of money.

Yeah, that would be my guess too. But I think when the scalability problem is finally solved we should see prices of 400 or even 500.

I think price is currently "held down" because of uncertainty in this issue. Although XT seems pretty dead (the number of nodes is stagnating on 630-650), there is still no consensus about the other proposals.

I have voted for >700 at the poll. I expect the price at June 30 in the mid-to-high 700s. It may reach 800, but I'm not sure about that.

Short term I expect a very small correction now. Prices may go to $620 as a minimum, but I don't expect much less than that. I don't think we'll see sub-600 prices the next week.


Although I'm getting slightly bearish now, it's only for the short term. I expect the mid-term cryptocurrency market at that 100 billion you are predicting. That would be the consequence if cryptos can conquer a significant market share of the remittance market.

But I expect this not to happen before 2018-20. And I also expect Bitcoin not to be the only big player then. In my opinion Bitcoin can reach 30-50 billion market cap as a maximum, and the rest will be for about 5 other cryptocurrencies (which they are, I don't know; I guess Ripple, Ethereum and Bitshares will be among them).

There are also alternative scenarios. For me, a possible solution of the scalability problem would be:

- LN for microtransactions - for very low amounts, it seems to offer an acceptable grade of centralization.
- a higher block size than today. I have made a (naive) calculation that 1 TB of blockchain space per year (~20 MB blocks, ~6 per hour like in BTC today) could handle ~325 million transactions per month - could be enough for about 50 to 100 million households if they use LN for microtransactions. That should be achievable in the medium term.
- multiple competing blockchains which are able to inter-operate with a form of atomic cross-chain trading.

This scenario would enable us to use on-chain transactions for all medium sized payments.

The problem is that fundamentals are weak at this moment. There is no mass adoption story in sight because the scalability problem seems far away from a real solution.

For the short term, I think bulls will do another try to break the ATH, because in the last bearish dump attempt $1000 essentially hold. But I see no real chance at the moment to break the ATH. The most likely outcome is that the rally breaks somewhere in the low 1100s and we crash again in the 9xx area - a classic double top in the making, although to confirm it we would have to go as low as $135 .. scary, but not impossible if there is no miner/developer agreement in the scalability discussion.

It is bullish, but only for the very short term. I think it's a good indicator that the price wants to re-test the $1130-40 level near the old Bitstamp ATH. But it's no guarantee that the price will cross that important mark.

The power of the bullish trend is slowly going away, so the most probable outcome for me is a double top (a new local high above $1100). $1100 should be a sure bet for now, but after passing that level I would be very careful - specially because of the still unsolved blocksize debate which is, if anything, a possible source of bad news that could emerge every day.

I have examined the history of the 2011 and 2013 bubbles a bit and you may be right - at least there is no real precedent for this price recovery, the outcome "should have been" more bearish (if we part from the hypothesis that history repeats itself). The most similar would have been the chart at the end of October 2013 when the price corrected sharply after nearly touching the $266 high and needed 11 days to get again at the same level. But in that moment, as far as I remember the sentiment in the general "bitcoiner" public was much more bullish than now.

For your theory to confirm, we need to wait a month

This time I'm really disappointed by the PBOC. Only 50$ (or ~4%) at the deepest point of the "crash" and still nobody wants to continue the shorting party ... (OK, we're 1% down comparing to yesterday, but that would be even a normal number in forex)

I think the PBOC's manipulation power is dwindling as we see now the real volume of Chinese Bitcoin trade. China is still strong in Bitcoin but not that dominant many believed only two months ago ...

I expect a consolidation in the 1030-40's and then a new attempt to break 1000€ (1070USD). I continue to expect at least $1100 as a new local high but an new ATH looks difficult to me in the next month.

Yeah. As long as the bullish trend keeps valid. Until now, we're still seeing higher highs and higher lows.

Ehm .... wait. 1020ish now on Finex - 1009 was the last local low that shouldn't be broken to keep the trend valid (1020 is better). A price under 1009 could indicate the beginning of a reversal. I still consider it probable for the price to recover, however.

PS: On Stamp the last local low of 1025 was already broken - let's see if the "reversal" is sustainable.

My guess is ~850ish (not now, but in a few days). That is approximately the bottom line of the current mid-term uptrend (not the accelerated recovery uptrend we saw since January).

We are pretty lucky that we know now that the Chinese exchanges had less market share than we thought a month ago. So the PBOC actually (probably unintentionally) could help to stabilize the price, because even a complete "Chexit" would not mean the end of Bitcoin.

@molecular: It's quite understandable -- most of the dumpers would like to withdraw CNY now if BTC is not possible ...

This morning I thought: "Oh, the price evolution seems fairly stable after the dump. It could be even bullish. And there was no second Chinese dump."

But now I see the micro-uptrends are weaker every time - like outlined in the "Three dead kitten theory". So unfortunately I expect another dump coming in, probably this weekend. 850 is approximately the value where a reversal back to bullish territory could happen, but it could also go as low as 735-780 again.

I see my first thoughts were superior to the ones I had when I wrote that post. The reason for my sudden pessimism was that I had seen this kind of pattern (lower highs of the micro-uptrends after a crash) multiple times and they were almost exclusively a bearish indicator.

But there seems to be a very bullish sentiment going on that is stronger than all Chinese dump attempts. We are decoupling from the PBOC-inducted dumps, it seems. Reading the last posts, I think it's speculation on the ETF event. But $3000+? I think they are crazy ... And what's gonna happen with the block size?

Might be true, but I blame the (understandable) dump on Huobi/Okcoin yesterday ("get out of inverseGoxOKcBTC") for the differences, not so much the buys at Bitstamp/Finex.


To be exact, only two of them stopped withdrawals, so it wasn't something very dramatic, but we know that in other times market would have reacted much more violently. That's positive - volatility is going down.

Possible, but I consider it improbable. The Chinese that would be enabled to extract the coins after the AML upgrades could also sell them for CNY now. The price on most Chinese exchanges is already approaching the western USD price, so the incentive to not sell now is only if they speculate on a price increase (e.g. because of the ETF). I think it's more probable they then will try to ride the ETF wave up to a possible new ATH and not dump earlier.

If the ETF gets not approved, these traders could dump and magnify the crash. So in every case I think this kind of traders will actually move up volatility and not down.

Markets at this moment don't seem to agree on a price or even price evolution:

Huobi & OKCoin - first going down, now up to the moon.
Bitstamp - stable just under 1000€
Bitfinex - slightly bullish with continuous increase - 1000 € in sight now
BTCC - very bullish

Seems the Chinese withdrawal restrictions are making prices diverge because arbitrage isn't that easy now.

You are actually right. The Euro went down in the last 3 hours from 1.067 to 1.062 USD. But when Finex hitt 1067 USD the EUR already was below 1.065. But it's very possible that the bounce was related to the mBTC/Euro parity  (looks cooler this way, I think ).

I think this time it looks definitely like the  EUR/mBTC barrier will be broken. Demand seems very strong - even on Chinese exchanges, where people would have to wait almost a month to withdraw their BTC. 

I am also this time more convinced of a bullish than a bearish outcome of the 1EUR/mBTC fight.

The volume of the little "backtrace" was not very high. RSI is low, so we're not close to be overbought. And the buying pressure until now has prevented any panic-like sellings since the 735 dip.

A contrary indicator is the fact that the very bullish upward channel was probably broken, although that already has to be confirmed. I think if until Wednesday we reach the 1070 USD mark again (or pass the 1000 euro barrier for more than 24 hours) then 1100 are very likely. But that doesn't mean for me that a new ATH is in the making - we need much more market euphory for that, so I only give it a chance if the ETF is approved. 

That's true, but because of the blocksize stalemate ;P . That's why I think the current price upswing will not last very long if there is no "politic" change. We can go to $1500 or even $2000 and then crash really hard in front of 1 million ... unconfirmed transactions.

For the moment, I'm thinking about this scenario (Bitstamp prices):

- $1160/63 for now will hold (still much resistance)
- little downswing to $1140
- the second third intent will win and go above the old ATH.

Like the exchange depictions! But why the "vintage" fotos of Kraken and Bittrex? The others are pretty self-explaining - although I would place OKcoin in a cul-de-sac (dead end) road

We're seeing now what could be the beginning of the third attack to the $1220 levels, although I think today won't happen nothing of importance because volume is very low. That could be related to Carnival in the Bitcoin Nations 2 & 3 (Germany & France, according to https://bitnodes.21.co). Maybe some Bitcoiners from these countries are taking a little break buying some drinks with their profits from this rally ...

I don't think there will be another flash crash and then up again. It can be the beginning of a short- or mid-term bear market with lower lows. Bear markets happen and after the insane bullish last year it would be no surprise if we're heading down for some months now. Think about the scaling debate, there's no solution in sight yet.

But no, I don't see sub-500 prices coming again (at least not for a long time). The most probable outcome for me is a bottom at the 600-800 level, in about 2-3 months.

Will there be a double top at ~$1300 and a trend reversal or will the uptrend continue?

In the last days, I thought trend reversal was more probable, because there are few fundamentals that support a further price increase, and the people who speculated on the ETF and are still not out could be a problem if there is a small correction that could then be magnified and become a real crash. But the price increase in the last days looks very solid. So at the moment I'm unable to do any predictions - it looks 50/50 for continuing uptrend or trend reversal.

A problem could be the current Dash bubble. When it bursts (and I'm almost sure it will), then I think people could return to fiat instead to Bitcoin, taking Bitcoin's price respect to the USD/EUR/CNY down with them - there's a large amount of money inside this instamined s*itcoin.

I guess most people would trade Dash -> BTC -> Fiat. By far, Dash/BTC is the largest market, Dash/USD is tiny compared to it. I don't think there will be a relevant impact of a massive Dash -> BTC movement into the BTC/USD price, but a large "Dash bank run" into fiat via BTC could affect the price to the downside.

Volume of Dash was 25-75 million per day in the last week, so there is some money in there. Maybe not sufficient for a large crash, but it could cause a correction, above all if - as you speculate - there were massively masternodes withdrawing from the Dash ecosystem.

Thanks for quoting - the original post was deleted, I guess because the word "D*sh" was mentioned too often in it (Interested people can access the post clicking on the link above the quote)

D*sh is definitely going down, but I doubt it's the reason for the actual downmove as still the price respect to Bitcoin isn't going down very fast. I guess Bitcoin's downmove has more to do with the BU fork threat. Double Top (1295/1265) incoming? It would be confirmed at ~950.

For now, I don't think that they "take over". There is no real competitor in the top 10 of altcoins. D*sh is instamined and semi-centralized cr*p, ETH is not about payment but more a B2B solution. NEM is the Japanese Bankster Coin (JBC) and has a shady, blockchain-bloat-encouraging algorithm. Monero ... is OK but has even more scalability issues as BTC. Ripple and Byteball are totally centralized. LTC? Don't think so. So there is no real contender but all together could capture 50% of market share - and that would be already a hit for BTC.

I think the 400s are a good bet. There was our last really long-lasting sideways market in 2015/16. I think it will go lower only in the very worst case, if even after a possible fork there are still attacks between both coins.

And I think if we really go bearish now, the first strong support will be likely in the ~950 range (retest of the "ETF low") and if it doesn't hold in 735-800 range. The next one: 4xx, as already said.

I have also noted that. If this tendency consolidates, we may have finally the fork danger cleared, or at least, delayed. (I for myself would like to see BU in the wild, but as an altcoin, maybe based on a BTC balance snapshot like Clams).

Regarding price evolution, I think there is clearly a triangle closing in the next hours or at most tomorrow (Saturday). If nothing fundamental happens, I think then we'll see where we are heading for now.

For the downtrend to break, we must rise above $999 at this moment. So there would be the next resistance line, if we're considering the most simple chart analysis pattern (up/downtrend channels). The fact that this price mark is really close or identic to to the symbolically important $1000 mark would mean even more resistance.

Possibly if the current ultra-short-term upmove continues with its current pace, on Monday both lines (ultra-short-term uptrend/short-term downtrend) converge and the market decides where to go. As I think that the current price evolution is dependent on the evolution of the block size debate (fork danger), I'm actually a bit more optimistic than some days ago, because of the stagnating BU proportion and the rising Segwit acceptance and so I see a small chance that we'll see $1000 again.

The problem is this sentence:


So it's a centralized solution, until Bitcoin provides the necessary opcode to do a decentralized two-way peg.

But I like Rootstock. It's a solution from South America

IMO, the actual sideways market can be explained with the following two assumptions:

- There is no inmediate fork risk as the support growth for Bitcoin Unlimited stalled, and the remaining Bitcoin pools are very unlikely to change to BU. So it would be very difficult for BU even to reach 50% of the hashrate, and 75% seems almost impossible.
- But as the debate is not solved, there isn't fresh money flowing into BTC as long term usage/price potential is bound to a scaling solution - be it on-chain or off-chain (with Segwit).

There is a triangle closing tomorrow (bearish highs and sideways-to-bullish lows), but it's a bit irregular so I don't know if there will be any impact. Best bet is not to risk anything now.

I like the short-time price evolution on Bitstamp. We could soon reach $1252 and then break out of the 30-day Donchian channel, that could give a boost up to $1280-95 - the last price level where we stood for more than some minutes.

Bitfinex is moving in the opposite direction, but that could be actually bullish ... if it's a sign that traders are slowly regaining confidence in the exchange.

It must first break the Bitstamp high of $1350.

Until then, anything can happen - even a double top and a crash back to 1000 or worse. But at this very moment it doesn't look like that (second attack to $1340 is building up) - I think we'll see a new Bitstamp ATH before the weekend.

I second that question. I have checked the news pages, Bitfinex' website and their Twitter account but haven't found any recent news, only that they today started supporting Ripple (XRP). Maybe people are using BTC/XRP and then XRP/USD on another exchange/gateway to get out their funds? But that wouldn't make much sense because they already have other altcoins on board.

They have a news item from last week (May 12) however that they're processing large withdrawals with another system. Maybe these withdrawals are starting to go through.

Maybe the strange FinexBTC/BTC parity really is only related to the resistance of the $2000 mark.

Who has the balls here to bet on a $2000 double top and defend this position in this forum? (Edit: Finex prices.)

(That doesn't mean $2000 cannot be passed in the future with better fundamental news. But perhaps it's too early and a sell-in-May scenario is more realistic.)

My guess is that the target bottom Bitstamp price, for now, is $1800. The reason: It was the most visible high in the uptrend (after $1800 it fell down to $1600 and then rose again).

If it stabilizes there, then the real dead cat bounce will start. But the $2700 will not be reached, for some months at least. There is no reason for it, only speculation.

The bottom could be somewhere near the old ATH, or even a bit lower (900?), but it won't be reached inmediately but in some months.

Only when a scaling solution emerges that doesn't lead to a chain split (no BU hard fork, no UASF without supermajority) then we could go above $2700 and probably even $3000+.

I'm also voting for option 2. The target is 2400-2500 USD on Bitstamp. Only if there are really bullish fundamental news (resolution of the blocksize war, for example) I see a breakout over 2700.

My prediction I made some days ago (e.g. here) has until now be pretty good:

- first stop of the downmove (after the second 2300-2400 bounce): $2000 (it was $2001)
- a little rise to $2200-2500 (ok, it was only 2160 but not too bad)
- dump down to $1800 (1850 held)
- "the real dead cat" going up to $2500 - that's what we're seing now.

So - enjoy the ride but be careful - especially if playing with altcoins

Is this already the "Sell the news" dump?

Or simply a too steep rise and then $250 dump (almost 10%!) in less than 10 minutes. That reminds me of 2013

Well ... looks the bottom is in ... now we go to ATH?

Exactly my feelings, I'm pleasantly surprised by the price evolution. Although it dips sometimes below $2700, I had expected a large dump coming from Big Blockers that simply want to harm the original Bitcoin. Now it seems the largest dump was before the split - in anticipation of a move that didn't happen.

Maybe the BCH adherents are still not sure if their coin will survive and therefore dump'd only a little fraction of their BTC, to scare us. But nobody panicked


I think the activation will be flawless. The "extreme" group of Big Blockers has now their altcoin to play with, so they wouldn't try to influence Jihan and other miners that sympathize with the big block idea. And I think most miners are expecting high prices or even a new ATH if Segwit is activated, so they won't be interested in turbulences that could harm this scenario they would massively benefit from.