All posts made by KaTXi in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3478291 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Damn, so little selling pressure?
No selling at all it seems... Is the market overbought?
2.
Post 3506075 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I'm starting to freak out a little bit... Take a look at the asks in all markets, a few K's until 300, then NOTHING.
This means that if we break 300 and NO new BIG whales appear there is no support at the top, we could repeat what happened in april, more than doubling in one day (from 300) and then...
3.
Post 3521520 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Keep a look at China... Almost 2100...
4.
Post 3552642 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
is there actually a better alternative than Gox for traders who want to trade in euro? And i'm not talking trading systems like bitcoin.de... Something with a real live trading market like bitstamp or gox. In this case Gox is probably the only choice for those traders. Not everyone wants to be exposed to the exchange rate risk dollar/euro has.
If you don't need the Gox Streaming API you can use btc-e
5.
Post 3828080 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
ATH in Euros in MTGox: 895
6.
Post 3854914 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
Come on guys, just 1 hour 9 minutes of lag in Gox:
{"result":"success","return":{"lag":4177429063,"lag_secs":4177.429063,"lag_text":"1 hour 9 minutes","length":"9613"}}
Nobody remembers the good old times?
7.
Post 5261847 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
There were less than 5000 BTCs to zero in Gox a few minutes ago...
Really interesting times, *IF* they reopen the biggest Arbitration in the history of mankind is going to happen in our screens, real time. The amount of money that insiders are going to make is (insert adjective here)
8.
Post 5314105 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...
9.
Post 5314206 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).
The second Gox opens bitcoins will start flying outside, edges will be closed ASAP, people with bitcoins ready at other markets and fiat on Gox will sell on others and buy on Gox, virtually doubling (depending on the gap) the amount of BTC they have.
Whales don't care about fiat, they wouldn't be here (almost impossible to get huge amounts of bitcoins in fiat anywhere in a timely fashion): All they care if to have MORE bitcoins, and boy, with this arbitrage opportunity, they will get a LOT.
10.
Post 5314216 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.
THIS.
11.
Post 5314927 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).
That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:
The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.
Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.
That may be for the long run, after the dust settles, but the next days after (if?) MtGox is alive again it will be a bloodbath out there, I can't see any other option:
- Huge gap waiting to be closed (it won't be only Gox going to 600+, a lot of people want to be out of there ASAP).
- People scared with 90%+ of their money on BTCGox (there are a LOT of people like this) going to a more 50% fiat 50% BTC
- Huge warning these days of things that can go wrong on BTC world, result: People cashing benefits on relieable markets
- Few new money entering BTC world with all this "noise".
- ...
I'm bullish on the long run. And with long I mean +2 years, but next weeks (Gox dies or Gox resumes withdrawals, it's the same) are going to be RED on other markets.
12.
Post 5315389 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Well, there you have the difference between us then: You are already _sure_ about what will happen, and I am not, and am willing to wait another day or two of more volume to see what reopening of withdrawals entails. Time will tell which strategy was the better one.
Dude, if I were that sure I'd bet my house
No, in Bitcoinland you are never sure of anything, a new surprise can come out (Bitstamp has the same problems than Gox, US considers terrorists all BTC holders...). What I'm saying is that if everything goes NORMAL (and that is a BIG if), prices should go down as soon as Gox reopens.
13.
Post 7599283 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Clever:
- Buy low, once you know (give or take 5%) the medium price (insider trading, friends, not too many people involved so you know a lot of bids from other players...) spend a few thousand dollars driving the price up.
- Once is up enough and the bids from small fishes build up you sell the bitcoins you already have (no need to wait for feds coins) knowing that they will be replaced by fresh and cheaper goverment coins.
- With the huge amount of money made from the small fishes buy again at next bottom once the real figures are out.
Guys that bought at 630+: get ready to be screwed (disclosure: I'm a huge bull for Bitcoin, but this week will be rough)
14.
Post 7638062 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
15.
Post 7638192 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
If true: 30000 FRESH bitcoins (previously blocked) are going to be offered to institutions through a new exchange. The bull in me is running to the hills. After selling.
16.
Post 7639119 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
are you saying price will go down because those coins will be for sale via new exchanges in developing economies ? and for sure they sell em for less than what they payed.
and donīt forget ZHE MILLIONS of fresh bitcoins that will be available because of mining in the next few years ??!1!!
and what about the millions of coins that are already sold. shit, they may get sold again ! and those buyers of all those coins may sell them AGAIN. i wonder why btc price ever went above 1 cent with all this selling
No, they are not going to be "on sale" on developing economies. That doesn't make sense, everyone in those countries can buy right now in actual exchanges, localbitcoins, etc. What they can do is:
- Lend bitcoins on those countries with a small interest (bearish, they have to monetize (fiatize?) those bitcoins to build/buy almost anything non digital).
- Act as Angel investors in those countries (bearish for the same reason, bitcoin economy is not that big to keep the coins unchanged).
Both options are viable all around the world, you don't need to deal with banks and corrupt goverments to send bitcoins wherever you want, but once the coins are there you will have to use them: Pay bills, pay salaries... And it's easy to see that most of those bitcoins are going to be transformed into fiat before use.
17.
Post 7639304 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Yes but over a long time period - not the next month and through the usual cause of business and probably through funding businesses that expand the bitcoin ecosystem. So there is absolutely no chance of 30,000 coins hitting exchanges in one go, so the market no longer needs to fear the quick sale and profit turn. To me this is about as bullish an outcome as we could have hoped for.
Agree 100%. Just pointing that sooner or later 30000 BTCs that were outside the market for a year are now back. They can all be kept unused or unchanged but they are back.
18.
Post 11212255 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
Bot stopped, sell everything bought at more than 221.
Or start shorting. Now.
19.
Post 11212363 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
The party is not over.
Bot stopped. Last buys are real market buys. Seems that somebody doesn't want it to go down after buying while the bot was doing it's job.
Won't last. Sell.
20.
Post 11212630 (copy this link) (by KaTXi) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
I'm glad you know
it is a ingenious plan for someone to get cheap BTC
Tick tock, Tick tock...