No...shoud've read the forums man.

Maybe you can get your money from Gox after a few months. Maybe not. It's not recommended at this point. Considering it's been this way since before summer...it's not looking brilliant.

Most of the money being put into bitcoin is a gamble. It's easy to see huge gains on something which is altogether worth very little anyway.

That BTC mining chart for ASICs is making me smile. I mined 0.17 BTC yesterday via altcoins with "only" 12 GPUs 

By comparison the SHA hashing armsrace has developed into a massive shooting one's foot party.

It's been done ever since altcoins have existed, why stop now? They won't stop unless it stops working. If anything, it's making more money now than ever so...
Pumps and dumps work because suspension of disbelief is still very strong in crypto markets. People want to believe the coins they hold will "go to the moon" and that includes BTC holders. The same human feature that can propel a bitcoin to 1K or 10K USD is what makes altcoins worth some BTC.

I have no clue which coins I'm actually mining, I am interested in getting BTC. People with BTC seem interested to give it to me in exchange for whatever I'm mining. The BTC network can do without me, 2 petahash? It just makes investing in SHA ASIC miners look pretty unattractive is what I'm saying.

BTC-e/Stamp are just following Huobi again now.

Pretty sure all trading on Gox is in USD and the other currencies you see are calculated by exchange rate. There's no seperate exchanges within the exchange.

I'm from the EU and cancelled withdrawals from Gox after 6 weeks of nothing (and no clue from support when or what)

Manipulation or not, both the Gox issue and the potential Bitfinex issue have the potential to severely depress the price. It's a matter of when.

Works fine for me as well.

"what did we miss?"

Huobi now well and truly following "the trend", they woke up.

That 700 wall at Gox is starting to look mighty slim now...

Especially with Gox you do get to a tipping point, when confidence is lost the slide is started and then the herd mentality takes over.

Funnily enough something like that could end up saving Mt.Gox. If you're getting a 50% spread quite a few people who can handle the risk would be wiring large sums of money into Gox' coffers. Restoring the imbalance created by months of Gox leading the prices by 100$ or more. It would be a neat example of a self-correcting problem.

I don't think anyone's going to do that until they actually can get it off (or a precise announcement of when it will be possible again)

Oh man, I cancelled an order I had on BTC-e for months just days ago... 10@266  

At least I got one at 450$ and a couple more all the way up to 600. Sold them all back at 650 and sitting back now.

And this is why you ALWAYS keep ridiculously low bids on exchanges.

Tweet a few mins ago from btc-e says "bitcoin deposit works"

I can confirm BTC-e withdrawals are not quite instant, 20 mins and nothing in the blockchain yet (2 BTC)

Kind of sucks because I've gotto go to sleep and I don't like leaving coins floating around with the price this unstable.

BTC-e posted (in russian) on their twitter that the wallet upgrade can cause withdrawal delays. At least that's something of a confirmation.

One night later, still no coins 

Talking about spam, the blockchain is being spammed by Bitwars right now.

I'm not panicking, but I would appreciate getting my withdrawal from nearly a day ago... they were working today anyway, but the ones that got stuck yesterday have not moved and btc-e hasn't commented on it in any language.

This is slightly different, the problem at Gox is that they're using txids for things they were not meant to do.

The problem everyone else has right now is that the same exploit/feature is being used for network wide DOS. It's freaking out systems and preventing transactions but there is no chance of any BTC being stolen out of any exchange that wasn't programmed like Gox.

Technically they were right. The problems at the exchanges now are slightly different from Gox, it's an internal bookkeeping issue now, which can and will be fixed promptly by the proper exchanges while Gox remains closed indefinitely.

Well obviously harmless exploits aren't going to drive the price to 1$. No-one is losing their funds with this one (unless you left them on a retarded exchange like Gox obviously)

BTC-e just tweeted BTC in limbo will be resent 13.02 (tomorrow)

Sounds like the plan at Gox is working.

Failed from the users' perspective, perhaps. I'm sure for some exchange owners things went pretty much according to plan.

That's the worst case scenario? I think that'd be pretty good for BTC's long term success. It offers buying opportunity for everyone, it implies stability, it looks less like a "tulip bubble" to all those armchair economists and it would allow for real world applications to develop more easily.

I'll have an M for Mark, please.

It's almost funny, many of the bitcoin naysayers would see this graph and go "HA! see I knew it!" but it's only happening on Gox  
Never seen something like this in my life, other exchanges are holding close to 600 while 1 exchange implodes. I guess that's what happens when you hermetically seal off your exchange to the outside world...the inhabitants go berzerk.

It has to be manipulation. Why would anyone wait several days for the next update from Gox, only to start dumping right before anything is announced? If they announce the re-opening of BTC withdrawals whoever dumped their coins at 150 is going to look a right idiot, and nobody with this much coin can be that stupid. It has to be a ploy to shake more money out of the smaller holders.

Large players have much, much lower trading fees.

Confirmed without a source obviously  

No chance, then the scammers would not have used btcguild in the ruse (most people they sent to would have nothing to do with btcguild whilst they would know for a fact all their targets are at stamp)

Holy detour bat man. Just right click save as the png image with the QR code

He deserves it, it was a very good idea.

Many of them probably were trying to remove fiat for months, or had it otherwise stuck (US residents)
Because of the large premium price that Gox was carrying, many probably didn't want to take the hit of rebuying BTC and cashing out elsewhere.

Of course that's not to say that many, many people were not plain blind or gullible. I remember saying in september last year that Gox was a time bomb waiting to...implode.

So explain to me why people are selling at 100 when they could sell for 200-250$ on bitcoinbuilder?

They just don't know...?

Surely such a huge premium is worth testing the waters with even with just 1 coin at first.

If it was easier to get fiat onto Gox you could make a killing now via bitcoinbuilder. Of course, the reason the difference is so big is precisely that it is difficult/slow to do for almost everybody.

Gox internal BTC transfers work. So if you want to sell your stuck Gox BTC you send them to the bitcoinbuilder Gox address. If you want to buy some, you send them real BTC to their regular BTC address. They are a middleman, getting a 2% fee... with 5-6k volume per day... it's a pretty profitable idea to say the least.

Bugger, only snagged 8 GoxBTC at .35-.36 and while I was waiting for another 5 BTC to show up on bitcoinbuilder the price went up 30%

I don't think this scenario is going to play out at all. There's a lot of dry powder waiting for the Gox nonsense to be over anyway.

Just about everything's being DDoS'd right now, some are coping better than others.

Gox has already said before that initially there will be limits on withdrawals. So there's that. These huge volumes you're seeing doesn't necessarily mean much. A handful of whales going back and forth (not to mention the conspiracy theories) will give high volume but that doesn't mean there's nearly that many coins in play.

You go ahead and bet on that with your orders, I'm going the other way for a little while.

It's funny how one moves on to ever crazier things to trade - that bitcoinbuilder site has some pretty hilarious and predictable swings right now. Owner is making a killing at 2%, approaching 9000 GoxBTC volume in 24h.

I think 350 makes about sense actually. What are the odds of Gox pulling through and enabling withdrawals in the not-too-distant future? I don't think it's less than 50%

Can't even keep up with the appearing, disappearing, reappearing, moving walls on Gox. Some people have a lot of coins to push around. So far it's not working very well though, they almost immediately get eaten into a couple of coins and then they pull 'em.

Special at Starbucks: ricin frappucino

On the internet, deleting something rarely makes it actually "gone" certainly in case of a serious lawsuit. I don't think there was much of legal importance on their twitter anyway, and you can always just delete the account.

I've been wondering if Karpales is purposefully trying to drive the price down with the way he acts. The press releases he sent out would fit that theory. I'm pretty sure since he single-handedly tanked the price on Gox they've been doing pretty well capital inflow wise (certainly relative to the price of the coins there)
I don't want to look too hard for an explanation but as a plan to restore some of the company's accounts I suspect it would work pretty well.

It's not so much panic as some people (or someone) using the occasion to build ridiculous sell walls and drive it down. Slightest hint of positive news and we'll fly back over 600.

It's interesting to follow the price on bitcoinbuilder. The floor seems to be around 0.3 and it won't go below that pretty much no matter what happens (I suspect if Gox went sub-90 we might break it) but it does follow the actual gox/stamp ratio fairly well in parallel when it goes up.

I've made a few trips from low .3's to .4 today, even with the 2% fee it's not too bad and slightly more predictable than Gox itself.

Unfortunately there's no usable trade history that I have found. There is a history of ALL trades however, in a raw format, you can sieve through that to find your own trades if you remember what you put in.

And people wonder why there's so many "sheep" in a crash. We've been conditioned to assume someone knows more than us when they start to dump. More often than not, they do.

Nothing against anyone but news driven events like these are unpredictable, unless you have a glass ball. All the TA in the world doesn't make it any less of a guessing game when it comes to outside events.

I bought some at .19 while the buy orders were still showing 0.32 

Unfortunately I ran out of BTC

Makes you wonder if someone "knows" something though. Oh the paranoia.

Unreal dumpage now on bitcoinbuilder. Literally thousands.

10s? Try 100s.

Look at that volume! http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitcoinbuilder/GOXBTC

Doesn't look like arbitrage, it's too low. Doesn't make much sense selling way lower than the actual ratio.

I hope it's someone who just woke up, saw Mark resigned and the twitter got emptied and freaked out. If this is inside info trading I'll be well screwed lol

I'm talking about bitcoinbuilder. Someone sold a few K coins at 0.19 while we were at 0.35 (and real ratio was 0.27)

That or we're screwed. I'm sending more BTC to builder now anyway, double or nothing. Hurry up Stamp "waiting to be processed"

I saw at least 1000 go at 0.19 way below market rate (admittedly still higher than someone might have bought at Gox earlier)

The odds are 5:1 right now at these prices. I don't believe the odds for Gox BTC are as bad as that in reality. I might lose a lot of real BTC, so what, it's all play money I mined anyway. It's worth a gamble at these odds, I will have no regrets if I lose.

I dunno, for it being a mistake they are keeping at it pretty well. Sell wall after sell wall going up. They're getting bought (volume closing in on 20K!) but it's very very low. Someone either paniced or knows for a fact Gox is done and is dumping thousands. That or they wired a gigantic sum of fiat to Gox a few days ago and are now arb-ing for 25% profit.

The timing is about right for an ARB to be possible, however that is a LOT of coins. 10K or more in total from what has been sold already + that wall.

Starting to feel that "we're being played" feeling.
Still want to buy everything I can but Stamp withdrawal is taking effing ages.

Nah, "waiting to be processed" for the past 45 mins or so.

Not for a while, the site owner processes withdrawals only once a day at 11 PM PST (if you withdraw before 8 PM)

More like 1000, it's split between .19 and .18

Finally got my effing BTC to builder but it's gone way up. Looking at the volume I think that dude has flipped the entire 5000 we saw earlier. Hope he comes back with more lol

Personally I always went one way during a crash or decline (where BTC-e tends to stay higher than Stamp) and back when things are going well (when Stamp runs ahead again)
It's usually 25-30$ per BTC one way after fees.

600 looks pretty far away now on stamp.

Without knowing the guy personally, what I've seen so far indicates he's got some issues admitting he was wrong/made a mistake or plain is out of his depth technically trying to solve something. Hence, I expect this to drag on for a while still.

We hit .19 in the previous wave of selling. Not sure if it's insider knowledge or people unloading coins they picked up very cheap on Gox earlier. Not a bad way to get your money out, so I'm not thinking of anything too sinister yet. With what is known so far, 4-1 or 5-1 odds on Gox are still buyworthy.

I've bought quite a lot (for me) as a gamble.
Only snagged 2 of them at .19 but have bought some at .25 and some yesterday in the 30's but I've also traded back and forth a few times for quite a nice gain.

At this point I'm gambling but I like the odds. I think the price drop today can be explained by arbitrage kicking in. For several days you could double your money if you could get fiat into Gox and out through builder. There must've been a bunch of people with healthy stacks who wanted a piece of that action. Thousands of coins going out through builder is now bringing the price in line with the real rate (those who bought at 90~100$) can afford to dump at .18 or so and come out slightly ahead. Either way they probably wouldn't want to stay in Gox coins longer than they need to.

Good idea wasn't it. I need to start working on a jump to conclusions mat.

Don't think he made 1200 BTC though. Volume is 29500 give or take but that's Goxcoins. If we take the day's average it's probably 1/4th to 1/3rd BTC each. 2% of that is 147~197 BTC in fees. Not a bad day's work, obviously.

Be happy for me when it works   It can all end in tears, too.
You can certainly receive coins with any account, but I would be a bit hesitant considering the verification process can take a very very long time. If you're not in a hurry, it's worth a go, but my price threshold would be much lower if I was buying unverified. Below .2 maybe.

It would require such vast incompetence that it seems unlikely it's thąt bad. Of course it's always possible, but I can't imagine the (dwindling) size of the cold wallets was never checked.

It doesn't look real to me, the way it's written doesn't match with being an "internal" document. I'm not saying that perhaps they were planning something along these lines, but I can't see that being an actual internal document.

At this point, people will take some BTC back in small steps over no BTC back.

That document is FUD, guaranteed. I believe Mt.Gox are not solvent and will not survive on their own but that 744k BTC theft smells like BS like a lot of other stuff that doesn't make sense in that "leak".

Everyone's trying to figure out if this is good or bad first.

Well a cold wallet isn't really a cold wallet if it can leak coins through a hot wallet anyway.

The number itself is very far fetched indeed. A theft of this magnitude would not go unnoticed for very long, not to mention if it were real a single person or entity would effectively have the power to dump every exchange's order book to pretty much zero. I think the problems at Gox are still much more fiat liquidity issues coupled with technical problems Mark has no clue how to solve.

Oh, and the entire "internal" document refers to Gox in the 3rd person as if commenting on the situation from the outside.

Meanwile bitcoinbuilder has gone tits up, darnit...

I'm going to go ahead and say it: LTC on Gox by April!!!!!!!!!

Once Gox destroy a few million LTC, sure.

Bitcoinbuilder went from .1 to .2

I got 10 at 0.1 and wondering to take profit or keep gambling.

Gonna go 50/50... sell 5 to just about get my money back and be left with a free lottery ticket for 5 BTC.

+1

Though I would also say never stop trading! These Goxcoins have had some pretty tasty swings today while Gox itself is MIA. Could double your real BTC easy at one point.

Welcome to yesterday. Or was it the day before that?

Plenty of coins already on there. Gox coins can't be withdrawn any more than they can be freshly deposited so we can go in circles for a while and make Josh richer.
It doesn't matter that Josh doesn't have access to the actual Gox coins in this case.

It's just that it's highly unlikely that page is actually created and maintained by (formerly) Mt.Gox.

Copied the (low res) logo from the "leaked" BS doc probably.

Everybody is waiting for *anything* coming straight from MK or Gox at this point, but in our desperation for information we shouldn't run to any old garbage for speculation. Both the BS "leak" and slightly over-conspicuous redundant HTML comment are insufficient to form any solid hypothesis. None of it makes sense right now.

Yeah the more they talk the more fake they look (which was already a lot to start with)
Classic mistake.

You're right, the Quebec clown association is a strong possibility.

If it is true that they are *trying* to negotiate a takeover of the company, it probably makes sense that they put up a statement that said even less than usual. The mere fact that something got posted on the site was a lot better than having a blank page. But being in negotiations, nothing of substance can really be said without risking damage to the process.

I was on that train last week  

Well probably not the actual train, but that line.

Bitcoinbuilder now has an FAQ opening the site, and you need to accept the conditions before you can go any futher (unfortunately at this point the accept button leads to a page that doesn't exist)

That's the big one isn't it? By all accounts what Mt.Gox is holding in cash and coins is not equal to zero. No doubt even as they were shutting down some people had money transfers en route.

Bitcoinbuilder is tanking at the latest "revelations" 0.05 now.

I think these Goxcoins are actually very suitable for a pump and dump. When they suddenly go up everyone is wondering what someone knows that they don't. I gambled on a bunch of them when they were in the .35s but the volatility means I've been able to trade my BTC back and still have some free goxcoins left.

IMO bitcoin will not become worth multiple thousand dollars as long as many people expect this to happen in the near future. I think it more likely that 2014 will become the first year where BTC ends lower on dec 31st than where it started in January.

How is that relevant? It doesn't change the equation of how much money needs to come into BTC. Difficulty will not grow forever, it's likely to overshoot putting small scale miners into the red, sure. But that doesn't drive the price.

Ah yes, that's where I sold all my 32 BTC.  

Like, literally the lowest spot.

Of course they will all dry up eventually - it would be entirely pointless of China to only tell a handful of banks to stop dealing with bitcoin sites leaving plenty of other banks available. They would either go after none of them, or all of them. Anything else is pointless.

Sigh, stamp bottom missed my buy order by 0,8 USD. Happens to me every bloody time!

I bought some higher as well as I had several orders on the way down, but 339 was particularly large and as I woke up at 405 would've been a nice profit.

They could try that, and hand the arb-ers a great payday when they tank the price down anyway.

It wouldn't work, simple as that. Its like those retarded initiatives to get everyone to not fill up their car with gas on the same day to get the price to drop.

You know that ARB exists between exchanges right? Feel free to ignore China, only difference is the people arbitraging then make more money while they equalize the price.

Yes, in order to beat ARB-ers to it. A 30,40 dollar gap between stamp and the Chinese cannot be maintained for more than, well, minutes.

Were you also saying ''Those idiots on Stamp/Gox are buying whenever BTC China goes up!'' a few months ago?

I usually lurk more than I post but I'm surprised someone like you would post such a dubious assessment of risks.

The 3% number is completely pulled out of thin air, but regardless "going to zero" is not a realistic concern. What is a concern is potentially losing 80 to 90% of invested value in a year, and that is a heck of a lot more likely to happen with BTC than the majority of stocks and fiat currencies. It's branded "volatile" and "high risk" for a reason. It attracts the more gambling kind of investor currently. Some of these people believe that if you hit a double six three times in a row, the 4th is a sure thing.


Absolutely true but "historical return" is not a very reliable indicator when the asset in question is as young and groundbreaking as bitcoin is. It's an entirely new kind of commodity, and there is nowhere near enough history yet to make a reliable judgement. Historical performance is never a guarantee for future performance and because of the small sample size this is even more true than usual. A winning streak is only that, it's always going to be finite.
 


Which verifiable data do you have about those mythical billions "just waiting on the sidelines for the right time" ? As far as I can tell it's all gut feeling wishful thinking. That doesn't mean it isn't true, but it's just not something you can claim to be an established fact at this point. In any case, any serious investor who sees a bright future for bitcoin would be buying NOW. They'd be clever enough not to wait indefinitely for a "cheap" price because any price will look expensive compared to what it would be "if it drops just one more time". If hitting the bottom of the long term trend channel is not a signal to enter, what are these "tens of millions" waiting for precisely?

The current million bitcoin holders already includes the early adopters and high risk gamblers, I don't see how 10x more investors are going to come out of the woodwork until things in BTC land undergo some seriously big changes (changes which the early adopters and gambers probably wouldn't like, no less)

Well, the bulls here don't seem to actually buy enough to make much of a dent in the charts. They're mostly hodling. They are bullish about some whales hopefully driving the price up, but that's about the extent of it.

Not that China being 110 dollars higher than the highest USD exchange looks particularly normal.