The list was already admitted to be false, but supposing it were real..
Admitted where? It was posted by
http://www.reddit.com/user/sourdsmokin and he seems to have made no such admission on reddit at least.
20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.
Lol. Thankfully this is virtually impossible. But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.
USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition. As to the US being gone. Woof. That's just reckless and blind.
What did anything you said have to do with whether or not my statement is true or false?
Are one of those superstitious people who believes that if we don't talk about bad things they won't happen?
The USA is following the same historical trajectory as the USSR. Absent some rational explanation of why the same actions that have lead to a failed state in every other historical example will not have the same result here, I conclude that the USA will share the same fate.
I'd call your "I don't like that conclusion therefore it's not true" rebuttal childish, however that's insulting to children.
In what way is the US following the same trajectory as the USSR? Of course the US will be gone someday, 20 years seems a little short. Just because it's clear we're heading toward a crisis doesn't mean the government will fall. What would it be replaced with? Technology might replace some government function in the next 20 years, but probably not all of it. For example I don't foresee technology providing healthcare for the poor. The free market prefers to just hide the poor from sight, rather than help them.
There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.
It's just the timing that is hard to nail down.
Is it really? What is the longest lived fiat currency in history? USD, since 1971. Others more clever than I have made the argument that with a sample size of 1 the most likely future span of an event with duration is the historical duration. From this we take the least-assumption prior estimate that the central tendency for future lifetime of the USD is 43 years. Then we observe the likelihood of a terminal event for USD by examining the likelihood of terminal events for comparables, and adjust distribution accordingly. The likelihood of terminal events for comparables are conditioned on several factors, such as debt/GDP ratio, approval ratings of the central government, employment and real inflation trends, &c.
My best effort result has the terminal point of USD between 2017 and 2025 with 95% probability. The conclusion is sensitive to the choice of conditioning factors and comparables, however.
The lifespan isn't really the issue, it's what happens at the end of life. The government could declare tomorrow that the "dollar" is old and busted, and the "odlar" is the new hotness. Except the two currencies work exactly the same way, nothing really happens. Everyone just exchanges one for the other and life continues just as before.
Also I saw it pointed out in another thread that superpowers have historically never hyperinflated away their currency. So if it doesn't blow up that way, how will it?
interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).
example of a result:
(click link for all results)
it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).
suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)
thoughts?
Where would this survey reach people who'd just heard about bitcoin? Likely not on this forum or reddit.
Also there hasn't been a lot of mainstream media news about bitcoin this year.
99% of all media coverage has been in the past 9 months.
What are you smoking?
The major media has barely touched bitcoin all year. I don't think mtgox's collapse was even close to as big a story as the price increase last April and November. There was probably more coverage with Silk Road in 2011 than mtgox.
The only time the media tends to mention it is when the price is already skyrocketing. Hasn't happened this year.
this is going to be something else in the next bubble
1) poeple start "locking" there bitcoins in other more stable asstes
2) bitcoin reaches moon
3) everyone unlock there bitcoins on the moon because poeple want to see how there bitcoins bounce around on the moons low gravity
4) MARS!!!
This is just horribly unethical marketing.
"Lock" means "sell". "Unlock" means "buy". And no, it doesn't have all the benefits of using bitcoin. While it's locked you get zero benefits because you don't own any.
At least up until now, the newbies I profited off knew that they were trading bitcoin. When they bought at the top and sold at the bottom, they were just poor traders. With coinapult they don't even realize that they're trading.
Move down your 300. I think that now we are in panic phase, when we will arrive in Despondency phase price will be 250$. I don't think that price will have a very big drop.
I don't know, the above graph is plausible if you compare 2014's decline with 2012's.
The current decline is already longer than 2012's but not as deep. Everyone keeps pointing to growth and good news, but guess what, that was happening in 2012 too! There's nothing stopping the price from continuing to decline, in spite of good news. Sure there's firm ground down there somewhere, but no one knows where.
