All posts made by schizoid in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 4873943 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.02h):
What is a "market maker"? How does the new BTC-China "market maker reward" work? Has it been tested in other markets before?
If your order executes immediately you pay a commission. If it sits on the book and someone else buys/sells into it you earn a commission. Bitfloor had the same system.
2.
Post 4874649 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.02h):
What is a "market maker"? How does the new BTC-China "market maker reward" work? Has it been tested in other markets before?
If your order executes immediately you pay a commission. If it sits on the book and someone else buys/sells into it you earn a commission. Bitfloor had the same system.
Thanks! Now I got it...
But does that really encourage volume?
It seems that it encourages posting an order a penny above or below the best opposite offer, and waiting for the other guy to make the move.
Which, by the way, is what seems to be happening at BTC-China right now...
Yes, it encourages traders to place orders slightly above and below market. That is a good thing. It means casual users can press the "market buy" or "market sell" button and get a fair price, like they do in the stock market.
3.
Post 5157932 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.10h):
This Gox premium is ridiculous. Gox coins are trading for $350 more than they're worth.
4.
Post 5213861 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
Maybe I am being too narrow minded to think that way, but compounding interest is a powerful thing and if BTC is guaranteed to go up every year by even as little as 10-15% (and those are conservative numbers based on the supply issue and I would think that the guaranteed price increase would be greater than 15% annually). BTC would change the whole dynamics of the world and incentives for labor......
Once bitcoin matures the deflation rate should match the growth rate of the economy, around 3-4%. If people stop working the economy will slow and the deflation rate will be less. It's a self limiting problem.
5.
Post 5214143 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
Maybe I am being too narrow minded to think that way, but compounding interest is a powerful thing and if BTC is guaranteed to go up every year by even as little as 10-15% (and those are conservative numbers based on the supply issue and I would think that the guaranteed price increase would be greater than 15% annually). BTC would change the whole dynamics of the world and incentives for labor......
Once bitcoin matures the deflation rate should match the growth rate of the economy, around 3-4%. If people stop working the economy will slow and the deflation rate will be less. It's a self limiting problem.
sorry Schizoid, but your comment seems like too much pie in the sky for me to relate... Surely, both you and I are speculating a bit about the future and maybe it is so far into the future that it does NOT matter too much.. but YOU know that the BTC protocol already sets the parameters for the expansion of the BTC supply up until 21 million until 2140... so until 2140, the amount of expansion will be decreasing... so now it is about 12% then in 2017, it will be 6% then in 2021 it will be 3% then in 2025 it will be 1.5%, then in 2029 it will be .75%... all the way reducing in half every four years until we get to 2140.... Even by the time we are in 2029, the rate is less than 1%.
I was actually assuming an expansion rate of 0%. If the BTC supply is fixed, its value will be determined by the size of the economy. If the economy grows (more goods and services per BTC), BTC will rise. If the economy shrinks (fewer goods and services per BTC), BTC will fall.
The rapid rise we've seen so far has been due to the rapid growth of the bitcoin economy, but that won't go on forever.
6.
Post 5215171 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
I think part of my point is that if BTC is so valuable as compared with other asset classes, then it holds its value better than other asset classes, then people will flock to BTC rather than currencies ... and then there is a snowball effect where the BTC is holding its value too well and more and more people are flocking to it b/c it is holding its value so well.
Yes, that is the initial growth phase, but eventually a point is reached where everyone is fully invested and can only acquire more BTC if they have income coming in from somewhere.
7.
Post 5235923 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
* Money that is invested into bitcoins is not being given to the "company" -- that is, the bitcoin network -- for it to build the infrastructure and paying the costs of doing its service (which is the "new wealth" that the bitcoin project is meant to create).
Of course it is. Where do you think the money to pay these people is coming from?
Most of it goes into the pockets of other traders, some into the pockets of exchange operators.
The same is true for stocks. Your money only goes to the company if you buy the IPO.
The "company" does not pay dividends to bitcoin investors
But it does the equivalent of buybacks. In order for "customers" to use the service, they must buy bitcoins from investors.
8.
Post 5237036 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
As a rough guess, people who invested in bitcoin must have already poured around a billion dollars into the market, even discounting what they took out. How much of that went to the miners?
And how much of the billions spent on Apple stock went to Apple?
Yes, but when a long-term investor sells his stock to another, he is simply transferring the credit of the loan (and any future dividend and appreciations) to him. So it is as if the initial loan was made by both of them, and they split the profits and risks in a particular way.
How is this different from bitcoin?
Customers buying bitcoins just to make payments are not "buybacks by the network". They are like day traders who are forced to buy some stock but do not expect to make profit. Again, they are just the ultimate new investors that bring their wealth (money or goods) into the system, which is used to pay the profits of earlier entrants; and who will get that wealth back only by selling their bitcoins to someone else who will have to put the same amount of wealth in. Do I need to I tell you how they would fit into my "parable"?
People who buy bitcoins to make payments are not investors. They're just users of the service. They're not looking for profits.
9.
Post 5237222 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
To me it looks like you treat bitcoins as some abstract paper bill with no use at all except for speculation
Yup, this is Jorge's problem. He seems to think that no one does anything with bitcoin other than buy and sell it on exchanges.
10.
Post 5255878 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
any news from Gox ?
ya that they need more time lol
And they got evicted from their office, but your coins are totally safe.
11.
Post 5256420 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
May I ask, is this the end of Bitcoin? Cant imagine but looks bad
No. The druggies on Silk Road will use bitcoin no matter what the price. They are the buyers of last resort.
12.
Post 5256471 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
MTGOX released the actual version of their announcement , here it is.
Dear Dumbasses,"
"
You are so dumb and retarded for being patient this week, while we are working on initiating bitcoin
withdrawals into our own personal accounts. In addition to the technical issue, some dumbasses have been stopping us at our front door and crying about their bitcoins, and as a result our frappuccinos had to be drank at undesirable temperatures, so we had to relocate MtGox to our previous office building in Shibuya (details can be found here
https://support.mtgox.com/home). The move,
combined with some other security and technical challenges, pushed back our progress of stealing your coins."
"
As we are smarter than all you dumbasses we will only provide an “update on an update”, while we nick you coins. We are committed to stealing every last one of your coins and will provide more fud as soon
as possible to keep everyone in the loop."
"
We do not give a flying fuck about the delays and deeply appreciate your kind fucking dumbness and
continuous retarded behaviour."
"
Best regards,"
"
"
MtGox Team
P.S. You've been fuckin GOXXED
P.P.S. Wire us some money for CHEAP COINS!!!
13.
Post 5257248 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
Let see the logic:
-if Mtgox announces "no withdrawals yet", price on bitstamp goes down.
-if Mtgox announces "withdrawals now", price on bitstamp goes down.
Why the fck doesn't the price on bitstamp fall right now?
If MtGox announces "All your coin are belong to us you have no chance to withdraw make your time ha ha ha ha ha", price on bitstamp goes up, as goxheads scramble to replace their lost coins.
14.
Post 5257715 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
Tee hee, just saw this on Reddit
Didn't Casey Serin sit on one of those? It should have a label that says "Warning: might suck brain out of ass."
15.
Post 5259021 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
Why would anyone buy goxcoin on bitcoinbuilder when they can just wire money to Gox and buy at a much lower price?
Why would anyone wire money to Gox when they can just withdraw it in cash and light it on fire?
16.
Post 5314305 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.
People tend to hold when they're underwater. I suspect the $90 sellers bought a little lower last year and wanted to get out while they could still claim a win.
17.
Post 5315129 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Gox dies -> people replace their lost coins on stamp -> stamp goes up
Gox lives -> no more cheap goxcoins to compete with -> stamp goes up
18.
Post 5315314 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Gox dies -> people replace their lost coins on stamp -> stamp goes up or those people are then broke or are disinterested in bitcoin
Some will be, some won't. Those who won't will drive the stamp price higher.
Gox lives -> no more cheap goxcoins to compete with -> stamp goes up cheap goxcoins will be flooding the rest of the market
If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.
Once this Gox crap is resolved either way, stamp is going up.
19.
Post 5315387 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.
The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.
And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?
20.
Post 5315438 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.
The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.
And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?
They don't trust gox withdrawal and would rather get the hell out of gox and use stamp withdrawal which is more reliable and faster. Their profit is already so big they don't need to be greedy.
If they weren't greedy and didn't trust gox they wouldn't have sent their fiat to gox to buy the coins in the first place.
21.
Post 5315551 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
I am still confused. From the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that there is not a single bit of new news about MtGOX: they did not start testing, they did not resume withdrawals, there have been no reports from them or anything. Did I understand it wrong?
I read somewhere that the new gox transactions contain gox's custom txid. That suggests they are trying to fix the malleability problem instead of preparing for bankruptcy.
22.
Post 5315680 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.
The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.
And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?
They don't trust gox withdrawal and would rather get the hell out of gox and use stamp withdrawal which is more reliable and faster. Their profit is already so big they don't need to be greedy.
If they weren't greedy and didn't trust gox they wouldn't have sent their fiat to gox to buy the coins in the first place.
You're talking about taking a risk for a 700% gain v.s. taking a risk for a 10% gain. They are willing to do the former but not that latter. Or perhaps even they had the fiat on gox from a long time ago when they used to trust gox.
Perhaps. I shouldn't have let you drag me off point. It doesn't matter what the recent gox buyers do. The only reason stamp is below $800 is because stamp buyers are being lured away by cheap goxcoins. Once gox withdrawls resume and the gox price rises above stamp, those buyers will go back to stamp and the stamp price will rise.
23.
Post 5315824 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
I must be too drunk because I can't find TERA's thread. But I thought the nongox news this month was pretty bullish.
24.
Post 5315955 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Ok, I found the thread, and I stopped reading at #7, after kicking myself for not stopping at #1.
25.
Post 5316180 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
I really cannot understand those who sold near double digits.
They might have bought at single digits and left their coins on gox.
26.
Post 5521793 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
If someone sells GoxBTC to his customers because only he knows that GoxBTC aren't back by any real BTC and he needs to raise cash, then that is fraud.
If he doesn't sell, and as a result GoxBTC buyers pay much higher prices for worthless coins, is that better? (Assume hypothetically that he cannot disclose what he knows)
27.
Post 5522617 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
it went kind of fast from:
it will not succeed to
see, it hasn´t succeeded 
Buttcoin.org is ahead of the curve. They've gone to "Ok, it is succeeding, but it's full of nerdy white males you don't want to be seen with."
28.
Post 5852116 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.
29.
Post 5852341 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.
Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points.. Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.
I got the joke. I just decided to do the math because I'm bored.
30.
Post 6015180 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
Houbi didn't make a higher high and is pooping on the party.
31.
Post 6079966 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
China actually ahead in price now, kinda weird after days it being behind 20 bucks or so
Huobi pumps and stamp dumps. Is someone converting lots of CNY to USD while he still can?
32.
Post 6080355 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
I'm curious who is buying coins on Houbi. How many new Chinese are sending fresh fiat to exchanges? That sounds hard to imagine.
I'm surprised the Chinese aren't buying with both hands while they still can. They clearly don't think like Americans.
33.
Post 6264669 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
How many loop holes can these Chinese exchanges find to keep operating though? Doesn't it seem inevitable that they will be forced to close down once they run out of lives?
I wish bitfloor had fought this hard when their bank account was closed.
34.
Post 6265016 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
How many loop holes can these Chinese exchanges find to keep operating though? Doesn't it seem inevitable that they will be forced to close down once they run out of lives?
I wish bitfloor had fought this hard when their bank account was closed.
remember who was behind it you will understand
Thats what I thought, someone who keeps their customers assets probably wasnt rushing to fight to stay open...
The money left on the exchange was eventually returned through IAFCU.
35.
Post 6265359 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
How many loop holes can these Chinese exchanges find to keep operating though? Doesn't it seem inevitable that they will be forced to close down once they run out of lives?
I wish bitfloor had fought this hard when their bank account was closed.
remember who was behind it you will understand
Thats what I thought, someone who keeps their customers assets probably wasnt rushing to fight to stay open...
The money left on the exchange was eventually returned through IAFCU.
I know I know, I was more thinking in terms of the 'hack' where 20000BTC disapeared though.
Yeah, that made me wary of using the exchange but it was oh so convenient. But eventually I pulled my money out and moved it to that flakey and more expensive other exchange because it was run by a fat French guy everybody trusted.
36.
Post 10353027 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
Drifting down again, I miss 2013. What will give this price a kick?
Lawsky needs to shit or get off the pot.
37.
Post 12183163 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
Anyway, XT altcoin fork is dead now.
If you own bitcoin, you'd better hope not. The only thing holding the price up is the hope that the block size will somehow be increased. If bitcoin can't grow, it's a shitty investment and it's way overvalued.
38.
Post 12183294 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
you got that wrong my friend, if the miners switch to the new client, exchanges wont have any other choice but to follow, because the old chain will be dead..
Not really, because new miners can jump in and resurrect the old chain. There was a recent case of an altcoin, I don't remember which one, which tried to hard fork but couldn't because the one exchange it traded on stubbornly refused to go along.
39.
Post 12183595 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
you got that wrong my friend, if the miners switch to the new client, exchanges wont have any other choice but to follow, because the old chain will be dead..
Not really, because new miners can jump in and resurrect the old chain. There was a recent case of an altcoin, I don't remember which one, which tried to hard fork but couldn't because the one exchange it traded on stubbornly refused to go along.
That might be an issue for a small network, where one player may have the power to do so, but as Phil Potter from Bitfinex said, "we will see what our competitors are doing, if there is a consensus, we will follow it'
tl;dr This is not about taking sides, its about following the money.
It doesn't matter if it's one player or a consensus of players; the result is the same. If there is consensus among exchanges to stay on Core, then Core will win, no matter what miners do.
XT'ers shouldn't be lobbying miners directly. They should first lobby the node operators, then the exchanges and payment processors. If they win those two battles the miners will follow.
40.
Post 12183732 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
you got that wrong my friend, if the miners switch to the new client, exchanges wont have any other choice but to follow, because the old chain will be dead..
Not really, because new miners can jump in and resurrect the old chain. There was a recent case of an altcoin, I don't remember which one, which tried to hard fork but couldn't because the one exchange it traded on stubbornly refused to go along.
That might be an issue for a small network, where one player may have the power to do so, but as Phil Potter from Bitfinex said, "we will see what our competitors are doing, if there is a consensus, we will follow it'
tl;dr This is not about taking sides, its about following the money.
It doesn't matter if it's one player or a consensus of players; the result is the same. If there is consensus among exchanges to stay on Core, then Core will win, no matter what miners do.
XT'ers shouldn't be lobbying miners directly. They should first lobby the node operators, then the exchanges and payment processors. If they win those two battles the miners will follow.
Why would there be such a consensus? Is there someone out there offering free lobotomys for exchange CEOs?
It's hypothetical. I was responding to mmitech.
41.
Post 12187918 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
We are going down from 280$ to 220$ in less than 10 days because two shills want to prove their might by forking bitcoin?
The answer from community is clear now, Gavin & Mike ?
No, we're going down because investors are starting to pay attention and realize that a coin capped at 2-3 tps does not deserve a $3 billion market cap.
42.
Post 12188072 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
Scaling to 56 transaction per second by forcing doesn't magically increase the market cap either.
Nice strawman.
43.
Post 12201287 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
I'm just pointing out that even with not so many transactions, you don't simply "die" - and evidence of that is the marketcap and mobility of gold, because bitcoin is not simply a payment system, but also a store-of-wealth system.
Gold is a store of wealth because it's a metal with very useful properties. If it were cheap everything made out of copper would be made out of gold instead, but there isn't enough gold to do all that, so it can never be cheap.
Bitcoin is only a store of wealth as long as it's the coin everyone uses. Intrinsically it's no better than the hundreds of other coins out there. If you cap it, it will no longer be the coin everyone uses, because caps by their very nature exclude people. So its value will fall, and whatever altcoin people start using instead will become the new dominant coin.
AlexGR is correct that bitcoin cannot scale to cover the entire global population, but it can scale much bigger than it is now, and if it does not, some other coin will.
44.
Post 12201813 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
Copper is a better conductor than gold, and it's lighter. Gold doesn't corrode. So only if you're concerned about corrosion, you'd go for gold. In all other cases, you go for copper. Hence, you'd expect gold to be cheaper than copper if both are equally abundant and gold isn't used as store of value.
I've been told by a metallurgist that for wire gold plated copper is best, but for things like pipes where you care about corrosion gold rules. Now compare the weight of the average pipe to the average wire and tell me again why gold should be cheaper.
You cannot use something as a store of value if it is not in fact valuable. If you could I would use my poo as a store of value and be a rich man.
45.
Post 12201957 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
You cannot use something as a store of value if it is not in fact valuable. If you could I would use my poo as a store of value and be a rich man.
If you could purchase a certified heap of Taylor Swift's dung along with a video of her producing it I think you'd probably do rather well in the long run.
I'd sell it now. In the long run people will be saying "Taylor who?"
46.
Post 12201988 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
You cannot use something as a store of value if it is not in fact valuable. If you could I would use my poo as a store of value and be a rich man.
How good is Bitcoin at conducting electricity? Or is it great for making pipes?
No, but you can use it to buy drugs on the internet or place ads on Backpage.
47.
Post 12202011 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
I'd sell it now. In the long run people will be saying "Taylor who?"
You have a point, but I think it's worth keeping in pride of place in a glass cabinet for a few years yet.
You're probably right. I suck at market timing.
48.
Post 12202102 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
I'd sell it now. In the long run people will be saying "Taylor who?"
You have a point, but I think it's worth keeping in pride of place in a glass cabinet for a few years yet.
Taylor Swift poop is a scarce commodity.
Pooping at max capacity, there is only so much poop Taylor can create in her lifetime. If every person on earth wanted to own *just one* mason jar of Taylor's poop, there wouldn't be enough to go around.
Supply and demand, Econ. 101, you figure it out.
CCMF!
PPMF!
49.
Post 12202172 (copy this link) (by schizoid) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
I think it's 'peak turd' for at least another 5-10 years. Then she'll start to dabble in scientology, go fat and mad and move to a shack in the wilderness. Her 2039 comeback will be a sensation as she performs remotely from a forest clearing and she'll tragically be eaten by a bear in front of billions of viewers. Then you really make bank.
Get a dated certificate of authenticity now. Turds from her hot years will be worth more.