I am hoping to buy 20,000 BTC at 95... 

I wish it goes down!

The price doesn't follow the news.

And it's money going in a startup, not in bitcoins.

Looks like this final bounce will end at about $110 as the triangle comes to a close.

I think I'll hold out for the $110 and get some sleep... it's nearly 6am after all.

Easy:

1) A whale wanted in with no slippage (huge bid wall)

2) Eventually another whale who wanted to take a large, no-slippage profit seized the opportunity

3) The market overreacted to the whale mating as expected (whales prefer to mate with no slippage)

Ya agreed. While this hurts my equity it is amazing to watch bitcoin now vs that of a year ago. I just watched 50k btc selloff worth 5 million dollars. Been around this board when we watched it go to 30 then grind to $2 then crawl to $20 then RAMP to the moon. A $100 bitcoin is truly amazing in its own right. Everything about this night is bullish long term.

Agreed, Bitcoin will probably be dead forever then.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-04-01zeg2011-11-01ztgSza1gSMAzm1g20zm2g200

As I said before: This has happened before. It will happen again.

so it has 5x as much as bitstamp. but there's progress

Pretty sure the 5k wall is what was left of a huge market buy to $110. That's what wasn't filled from asks

5 years on the NASDAQ chart equals 1.15 month on the BTC chart.  

That's a pretty cool idea.  However, that assumes that what is being kept secure, is still valuable.  With this manipulation and no safeguards in place any big money player can destroy Bitcoin.  I didn't realize that before, but now it is blatantly clear.  Let's use any government that has $1 billion to spare.

They could build massive mining rigs and with the rest, purchase BTC slowly.  It wouldn't take long before they would control enough BTC to just continually smash the markets with wave after wave of coordinated "dump attacks".  All confidence would be would be lost.  Current investors would flee into other currencies and investments.  Potential investors would stay away from a corrupt and manipulated currency.  It's actually a better Achilles heel than any regulation could dream of having.  

So in the end, Bitcoin's greatest weakness, is it's very own principles of non-regulation.  The irony is quite amusing.

Blitz­ is just depressed thats all, a good buying opportunity; thats what every bitcoin crash has ever been / will ever be, the big the crash the better the buying opportunity. 

It's because of your $180 prediction that instilled hope of course.

For ~ 75 million people that prediction is irelevant

the usual 75mils that go to heaven each 12 months

i have a dream of 250$ next week

lol Bears ran out of BTC and the banks are re-opening soon.

Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that is either worth hundreds of $billions or not much. During whole of its history it has been worth "not much" and dissecting the current price movements that (literally) I can create at will, does not lead us anywhere. It is simply too small. 99.9% of money managers have not taken any position yet. It goes to much higher or zero, and it is difficult for it to go to zero, (as well as it is difficult to shut down the internet).

The recent runup in price was an event I did not see many predicting. If it now goes to zero due to (for example) a concerted crackdown on all the exchanges, it does not alter my perception of the long term value. Nobody is forced to sell at zero. I work in gold/silver, and the crash in prices this year has lead to people not selling their scrap silver any more. In 2008 silver was valued officially at $9 per oz, but in 2.5 years it went up to $50.

This is a percentage game. You got a certain percent of coins, good.

what ever happened to coinlab?

This has been a weak "crash" so far. If volume doesn't accelerate, I might have to go back in time and change my predictions.

Bitcoin, you disappoint me. 

The phrase is my intellectual property. It will cost you 0.1 btc per use. Otherwise, I sue.

My guess is that somebody got an arbitrage path working via JPY withdrawals.

http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis.html

^Watch if you haven't already.

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

1. Mtgox insolvent in BTC having ~13kk USD in bids bought 7,5k BTC for withdrawals.
2. Mtgox insolvent in USD and some whale run away with 7,5k BTC.
3. Someone just want Jaroslaw to be sad.

I agree. But I don't think this bubble will pop before $500.

Honestly I believe this is the case and why I am sitting on cash at an exchange waiting on.

http://blockchain.info/tx/c99eab8a071d91ce60de038c0d6bff8a51d9f566ef977edc91f6bcf091b7c06f

^253 coins sent to the FBI's wallet. Interesting...

They're going to China.

lmao btc is off the handle. meanwhile people are dumping altcoins

^uh oh. And LoL at gox's excuse.

What's up with all the negative comments on cbc? Seems a lot of people in canada are scared of bitcoin.

Pretty calm right now. Where's the volatility?! 

ATH!!!

Bitcoin value doubled in 3 months

19 times in a row

OMG chris, you're killing me. Please tell me you have a book I can buy (with bitcoin).

BTC SKYBOXXX!!!  WEEEEEE

For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.

China 2100! No limits 

doubt

Recovery key doesn't help. The master key is encrypted with your recovery key and bootup usb. Thats the key used to decrypt the data, and its not stored anywhere except the drive itself.


The first few entire sectors of the drive are unreadable.

china and gox are desperate to make a sustained climb, but stamp is asleep at the wheel.

The funny thing about Bitcoin is that anyone in the ranks of the elite who understands it well enough to see it as a threat will automatically also want to own it. Now their interests are aligned with everyone's. They might be misguided, like Mellon, but they're Bitcoiners all the same.

Bitcoin is like the blob. Punch it and it just assimilates you.

So what's the thinking right now? Have we changed regimes and departed permanently from the long-term trend, or is this latest uptrend just dragging out the inevitable bubble pop?

Those of you in the "bubble" camp, what's your price target?

Heh, well, this didn't turn out to be the damped oscillation we thought it would be

$750 (Stamp) getting closer. It could be a nice battle, bears seem to have more ammo in the frontlines

Nope. For an exponential, df(x)/dx =f(x)

So for an exponential curve in time, the rate of change is proportional the the exponential. And the rate of change of the rate of change is also proportional to the exponential (i.e. increasing with time) and so on.

Oh, I see you're talking percentage change. In which case you're correct but that's not correctly called the rate of change.

(e^x)^2 = e^x * e^x = e^(x+x) which is still a straight exponential (This also applies to raising to any abitrary power)

I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

Just plotted it, I stand corrected!

For high enough powers, it will look like a step-function on a linear plot but a "corner" shape (i.e., exactly vertical and then exactly horizontal) on a log plot, my bad!

So yes, it will never look super-exponential. Sorry!

I don't think it works that way.

The volatility will get LESS the more people that are involved, not more.

$32->$2 (94% drop)
$266->$60 (77% drop)
$900-> $453 (50% drop)

Don't be surprised if the next bubble only has a drop of (25%-33%).

Someday, when there are 1 billion people in bitcoin, $1 billion leaving the market will affect everyone by $1.  See how that works?

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

Right. Because no new money will come in tomorrow. I mean, lets see, we didn't have 2 senate meetings last week, 5 consecutive days of coverage on CNBC, a spike in Google trends, an endorsement by Branson.

I can't think of any possible scenario where money will flow into the exchanges tomorrow. I guess your right.

China is now just under its ath, lets see how strong is the resistance

burma at 12 million?


okay, who wants to go in with me and buy burma?

yes, and they only get paid once a year.

Sorry...this is so off topic...

You own an investment, you bought it for X, sold it for 100X, you incurred an amount of capital gains and can claim part of your lifetime capital gains exemption.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/ncm-tx/rtrn/cmpltng/ddctns/lns248-260/254/menu-eng.html

Is no one else here seeing the possibility of a correction or down turn here??


I said 3 days ago I was bearish. Based on basically 1 thing - the correction looked like real market tiredness and the ensuing recovery looked weak.

Then yesterday when we caught fire, starting to go up on higher volume. I said I was a bull again.

But here we are again, on Thursday, and the top is stalling out below ATHs.  Look at the weekly and 3 day chart and they look suspicious. Just look at those charts. It 85% angles.  And where are those red candles?

If we dont break ATHs in the next 24 hours I think the rally may have topped out.

I know, I know, that's crazy talk.  But that's also one huge massive bear wedge on the 1 and 2 hour charts.

 

Well you asked for it (about ten pages back)

The "Choo Choo Motherfucker" t-shirt is now available.

http://www.zazzle.com/choo_choo_tees-235618740034578955

Unfortunately, zazzle doesn't accept BTC which is a bit sad but still.
This is the first in a series of BTC meme themed items I've commissioned via my layabout husband . 

Please let me know via PM if there are any personal requests (I'm thinking of a Lambo one for Goat!!).

Nan 

Am happy to send into escrow right now.

It is definitely done by several in an attempt to manipulate price. It has become a lot more common since the last run up and the influx of new posters.

Meanwhile, French Congress met today with panel similar to US hearings and things were pretty much all positive on the Bitcoin front.

Good news is coming out every day, so I guess this market is actually over bought afterall. The market seems like it is just going to wait to see what happens in China or eventually there will be such good news that it won't have a choice but to go up.

In truth we really don't know if this market is extended or not, because we are creating a new context with which to view bitcoin every week.

Personally, I think the longer we hang out between 750-900, the more bullish this is. Eventually, and it might take some while, bitcoin will no longer seem expensive in this range.

In four years, I have never seen a big drop after sideways motion. Drops come after peaks. It's entirely possible that sub $800 coins will never come back. I hope they do, so I can buy more, but I'm in a club with many, many members.

lol too early perhaps. I guess I was right on my $600 call....muahahahahaha 

There has been someone buying 1000btc at a time on bitstamp and bitfinex at every hour during this entire downtrend.

Of course I have a personal issue with you. You are annoying scum. I don't care that you don't believe in bitcoin and are here just to try and make a buck. I don't care that you are short. But I think you are dispicable as you constantly lie to try and manipulate the readers of his forum. You are the exact same scum that makes the btc-e troll box a fucking hell hole and you brought that same dark and twisted and extremely self serving and immature attitude and energy to this forum. And I hate you for it.

You are a dark person and not at all well. You are certainly not the type of person I would welcome into my home or advise my loved ones to associate with. You pretty much represent the lowest common denominator of individual in the bitcoin space.

Ccmf!

not sure i get why the market is acting the way it is.
it should place walls on the low, waiting for gox  to allow withdrawals and catch the coins being arb.
instead the walls are moving to the front line b4 the party has even started...

but why!?

cheap gox coin are sure to be liquidated on stamps soon...

Also:


http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1ygcil/as_requested_im_ben_lawsky_superintendent_of_the/cfkbfgo?context=3

Well, I kinda feel bad now for being so harsh with Jorge - he really seems a nice guy, and for sure its much better to have him in here than the other thousands trolls that are flooding this forum since October.

What is kinda annoying of him IMO is that he clearly has a lack of understanding of fundamental things linked to Bitcoin, and instead of silently reading and learning what was discussed in the past and try to complement that, he just spits the same old arguments that have been discussed (and debunked) thousands of times before.

Practical example: the "ponzi scheme" thing. We already had an intellectual/economist on the forum who explained us many times and with Jorge's very same words how Bitcoin was a ponzi on the verge of collapse: his moment of glory was during the crash of 2011, and he went to great lengths to explain how Bitcoin was a zero-sum game in which early adopters were assraping late adopters. He cheered with joy during the crash from $32 to $2, but we all know how that played out: the "bag-holders" as he called them (did you think you invented that word, Jorge?) are now holding a bag worth hundreds of times more it was worth during this infamous character's rants. The name of this guy is John Nagle, and you can find his profile here and here a nice web with which he embarassed himself.

And BTW, Mr. Stelfi: please point to us an example of a ponzi scheme which has seen 3 different "boom and bust" cycles in which price deflated as much as it did with Bitcoin, to then recover in such a way as Bitcoin did. Just FYI:

2011: $32 to $2 (-94%)
mid-2013: $266 to $50 (-81%)
late 2013: $1242 to $400ish (-68%)

Maybe because BTC is not a "zero-sum game", or a "ponzi" or a "bubble", despite that's what its critics have said of it from its very inception. Maybe there's much more to it than its mere utility as money, maybe (and only maybe) the distributed blockchain is the promise of a revolution that brings an increased freedom for the people.

I'm afraid that to see that you probably have to look deeper into it.

we all talk bullshit here, fight with each other and so on, and that guy on bitcoinbuilder made 1200 BTC in last 24 hours.

:jealousasfuck:

We'll definitely retest 382 on stamp, and if that fails all bets are off. We could dip below 300 shortly even.

lets stabilize 420?

550 will be seen again, guaranteed.

And I'm still correct.

Wow. Someone slammed on that market buy button pretty hard.

While I don't think the bear market is over and I thought we would bounce to the 700s before finally finding a bottom, its SO NICE that all the trolls are gone. Every. Last. One. Of. Them.  Crawled back into the crevice of their parents spare bedroom. Haha!

Hey I'm new here, but I thought I'd go ahead and share my speculations.


As you can see, to me, it seems as if we may be in for a third "echo" (not repeat--as I've been told markets don't repeat, etc)

source: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

(Please let me know if I'm breaking rules or something...I don't want to be disruptive!

That is a lot of pages to read!

Would you advise to buy hold or sell now? I have fiat waiting, I can't decide if I should wait a bit, I bought some already and I may buy if it dives or start going up

this new exchange coming up is a mega bullish news, hopefully few more spring up here in the states

Is it my impression, or has there been a general clamp-down on discussion and analysis of the MtGOX heist and its leaked database? 

You think I'm the only one? Hardly.

The bulls could only run so far for so long. The same is true with the bears.

Bears like to talk about 2011. Its what they hang their hat on.

How many people were investing millions into bitcoin in 2011? I would doubt if the answer was more than 1 or 2. Probably zero. How many people are doing that now. A lot.

How many start-ups internationally existed funded solely for bitcoin businesses in 2011. How many today - hundreds, perhaps thousands.

I could go on and on. Sure, the bears could be right about this being another 2011.

I think it is much more likely that they are as "delusional" as all the to-the-moon bulls back in December.

We will see.

Seriously though Walsoraj, what did you mean = that Gox's fiat excuses being revealed as bullshit held the market up and prevented capitulation..?

It is  the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

imagine just 10% of the coins are sodled - I do not get the redditors who say that that is bullish

I am happy for the guys having coins in mtgox

Fairy God Whale, where are you now?!

^FREEDOM IS AWESOME!!!!+1 WE LOVE YOU MAN!!! =)

CCMF?

I flipped the chart.  Looking at the reverse sometimes helps me form a decision.

I'm still undecided.


Anyone got any ideas on the TA ?  


The time is not UTC but actually GMT  sorry about that on the image i posted earlier.

(2:30 am UTC)   3:30am GMT

What with Stamp now on a solo mini rally?

You are basically advocating the following:

* Some guy on the street is selling a $100 note (guaranteed to be non-counterfeit) for $10
* You tell your friend who wants to buy: No don't buy it. He might sell it for $5 if we wait a little bit!

And then if the friend buys it anyway and the man is indeed selling the $100 bill for $5 the next day you mock him.

It's not really relevant price can go lower (unless you use margin)

A great squeeze is coming: Finex $17.2 million longs beware. 

Why are you wasting your time on us here then?

It's probably because I'm a lizard banker. Alternatively, might be because I wanted to annoy the hell out of you specifically.

You apparently don't know me well, I don't like altcoins, but I do like it when they upset the Bitcoin cultists.

Well yes, it's a shame that it is mostly Bitcoin cultists on the one hand and Bitcoin haters on the other, but that's the nature of controversial topics. I like Bitcoin, but I dislike the cultists because they rob themselves of intellectual freedom and attempt to do the same to others.

Your description of bitcoin enthusiasts as "cultists" denigrates and robs participants of this thread of an ability to engage in meaningful communications.  I have difficulties understanding how a mod here can view the bitcoin community within such a polarizing framework.  You, as a mod, should realize that the bitcoin community is much more nuanced than this supposed black and white framework in which you seem to be attempting to put its participants.

Try to stay objective, okay?

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

- Remember the guy who sold his house to invest it all in btc. Zero risk control, just puts all his wealth into one of the riskiest assets on earth. What's the overwhelming response in his thread? "Good on you! You won't regret it!". The dissenting voices are in the minority. That's cultish, in my book.

- The kneejerk reaction to mentioning the *possibility* of total failure of our little experiment. Please note, the exact likelihood of total failure (as in: price approaching 0) is up for debate, but I'm pretty sure a rational observer will admit that there is a real chance for the (publically traded) price to go back to 0, in case of catastrophic failure of parts of the network (like a major flaw on the encryption side), or some other event that causes an absolute loss of trust in the safety of the network. Try talking about that in here. The responses *should* be "Okay, that's possible, but unlikely." The responses *are* actually "No! Absolutely impossible! Logically invalid!". Go back a few pages when TERA suggested offhandedly what a blockchain "reset" would look like. That's cultish.

- The sense of "We're in this together, on the way up, and on the way down." It's only human to band together, but the article is spot on when it points out the phrasing of those "public messages" by well known BTC community members, that sound a lot like rallying cries in times price goes down. That's looks a lot like military esprit de corps, or, well, cultish behavior.

In case this is important to you, I still believe BTC has a real shot at success (where the exact type of success is up for debate). But I completely agree with Blitz: a lot of arguments in here are very clearly not motivated by rational analysis, but by make believe and selective perception. To call it "cultish" is confrontational, but not wrong, in my opinion.

You have a point there (that crossed my mind as well, but I decided against mentioning it to keep it simple)... for any group to overcome overwhelming odds, some form of 'extreme group cohesion plus unwavering belief in ultimate success' is necessary.

Still, from my point of view, this unwavering belief in the /success/ of Bitcoin that is so common in here is just as irrational as the unwavering belief by the general public in the /failure/ of Bitcoin.

Can you appreciate this distinction, between the perspective that I understand might be necessary for Bitcoin to have a chance at success (i.e. the "cultish" fervor), and what I hold to be 'objectively true' (or an approximation of objective truth)?

I think the persistence and panic of the current rally is being fueled by a number of leading indicators which have preeptively crossed. However, if we start dropping again, they could uncross and then it will take some more time before we can truly rally again (there will be flatness). If you look at the bid depth on bitstamp it hasn't even increased at all since we were at $430 a couple weeks ago.

bfxdata.com shows USD swaps just jumped by 1.5 million to 30.5 million
best swap offer now 0.4475 %/day

Yes. And it means that someone on Finex is either a crazy gambler or super bullish on BTC. Or more likely both.

BTC swap rate demand is at 0.0016% (for going short on BTC)

USD swap rate demand is at 0.175% (for going long on BTC)

That's a hundred fold difference in interest rates. Incredible. Has it always been like this?

What it means is if the price continues to drop it will be illogical to mine bitcoins with current equipment. The first to drop out will be the most inefficient, then the more efficient stuff.

However this will cause the difficulty to drop which will encourage mining again, etc.

What this means in practicality is one could look to the opinions of the miners as another data point on price. If difficulty goes up, it indicates miners are bullish (or insane). If it drops, it is bearish (or likewise insane). If mining goes way off the line with respect to price, it means either something really interesting is up, or miners have lost their fucking minds.

C

Hey,

Anyone willing to give us a feedback ?

heartbit.io/app

thanks !

This turned out to be an epic call of unprecedented precision.

I demand respect and adoration from every bull in this thread. A brief statement about how awesome I am will suffice for now.

Saw this over on ToF...interesting stuff for those who claim mining ops aren't over-extended


Also, this comment from Goat

mmm, buy wall to give the shorts something to think about

WOW! 6000 BTC market buy and rising!!!!!

GBTC just had first trade.

Who would not want to sell 41 btc at $600 a piece? 


http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote

Actually just an uptrend is enough to get people buying

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!