All posts made by chriswen in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 10341146 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
its becoming very clear to me that bitcoin is much more than a coordinated inside training pump and dump mechanism.
This is real growth and very big economy
Yup, people just call it a pump and dump because that's all they're used to from trading altcoins.
2.
Post 10362636 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
First leg of the dump started. Looks like we might go down and retest 220.
3.
Post 10445140 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):
Wow 5k future contract (qtr) long position just got filled at 230
Perfect opportunity for a manipulator to cash in on if you know what you are doing.
Crazy money right there, almost 2200
BTC in contracts
Edit n/m
It was a short closing....liquidation
Did you see the 14k margin call slightly below that?
4.
Post 10464027 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):
I think $260ish will be the top for now and we'll head back down on a big dump. Maybe that will be it for the bear?
If you really think that, you should be shorting. You'll stand to make a ton of profit and prove all these stupid perma bulls wrong.
5.
Post 10604438 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
i want to sell off some of this margin position to lock in/hope for lower to rebuy
but usd swap is becoming hard to get at decent rates :/
yo troll/bears. go lend your USD >14% interest a year!
can't you close your position but keep USD swaps reserved?
6.
Post 10614996 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
Let's see if we'll pop through 1600
7.
Post 10620157 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
Wow, 8000 coins dumped in 30 minutes.
There are some real kamikaze bears trying to get their shorts covered lower.
Lol, they'll fail.
Love it when you see so much denial among the bears.
you are just wrong. these were not new shorts. This drop was initiated by bulls...
On BFX both the shorts and longs didn't change much, so I'd say it was initiated like the pump, based on some market indicators.
we very much agree here. But a bear would not have had coins to dump as they are either short or flat...
What about whales with so many coins they can't dump without crashing the price to single digits (there are a lot of them, not just satoshi)?
What about megaminers full of daily/weekly mined coins?
What about traders that bought throughout last month and are now in profit and seeing that this thing is not going much higher at this point?
What about anyone that currently holds bitcoin for a total of around $3 billion?
So many coins to dump, so little fiat on exchanges to get dumped on...
There's OTC markets out there if you want to sell big amounts.
8.
Post 10624436 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
Big fucking news. BIT is going to be publically traded.
9.
Post 10645130 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
that bear trap.
10.
Post 10661634 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
What? Reversal already?
Sort of suprised. I would of thought we would have went sideways for a bit before a spike up.
11.
Post 10665344 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
Looks like we might be breaking out up.
12.
Post 10672974 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
13.
Post 10673132 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
What about the bitcoinsource?
Silk Road Bitcoin Auction – Bids Over $300 USD?
We are getting reports from sources within multiple bidding syndicates and companies that several bids submitted by the respective parties went above and beyond the $300 mark. We are working to confirm these reports, since the tips are currently coming from sources who wish to stay anonymous and cannot be verified, but we would love to hear from anyone willing to speak on the record, so if you or your company submitted a bid and you want to chime in, please do contact us.
14.
Post 10673880 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
the reuters article said he participated in the auction but it was posted 4 hours before.
15.
Post 10673891 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
dafuq, two rumors? auction bids at 30% above market, and china legalizes bitcoin?
u mad?
china never really illegalized BTC and as far I know the auction prices are not public
that's why they're rumours.
16.
Post 10676804 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
This pumpier. What was the point even? Pump a bit and then lets it dribble down.
17.
Post 10684560 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
not second market the syndicate that was able to win a large portion last time.
18.
Post 10687430 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
19.5k shorts.
19.
Post 10707861 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Chinese pied piper command to his lemmings to place buy orders to let him dump later. Wash cinese volume ftw. Follow your ruler, lemmings, dont think.
Please you can't say only volume works on such a big time scale. During squeezes we see periods of very low volume because of indecision. During breakouts we have tons of volume. That's why you can't compare volume like this.
20.
Post 10707917 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Its so simple to detect such wash volume pumps - they "bought" ~6k coins on okgox within 15 minutes (wash volume bots), but look at buy support there: ~700 btc to fall lower then pre pump level. Wise taders has figured out that shitty chinese scheme long ago, this week we're gonna see 200$ retest due to Storch RSI being in highly overbough zone.
Sure if you look at bid support it might look low. But bid support on okcoin isn't always on the books. One nice thing is that okcoin has a ton of algo orders like TWAP and Iceberg that buys in small amounts.
21.
Post 10709041 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?
Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?
that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.
22.
Post 10709184 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?
Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?
that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.
But how would you confirm that this is now a bull market rather than just a larger pump before an larger incoming dump (thus still being a bear market?).
And hopefully other than some fancy TA lines drawn on a chart....are there any other indicators such as volume, price velocity or MACD etc? --I'm not really a trader so these concepts are rather new to me.
Well its pretty obvious that we've been in a bear trend for quite awhile.
And now I think it could still be debated whether we are in a bull market yet. I think we're in a transitionary phase. Bulls are still cautious but bears are starting to lose power.
23.
Post 10709394 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?
Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?
that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.
But how would you confirm that this is now a bull market rather than just a larger pump before an larger incoming dump (thus still being a bear market?).
And hopefully other than some fancy TA lines drawn on a chart....are there any other indicators such as volume, price velocity or MACD etc? --I'm not really a trader so these concepts are rather new to me.
Well its pretty obvious that we've been in a bear trend for quite awhile.
And now I think it could still be debated whether we are in a bull market yet. I think we're in a transitionary phase. Bulls are still cautious but bears are starting to lose power.
Yeah that is my point. It is very obvious that we have been in a bear market for a looonnnng time, however what would we be looking for in order to confirm a new bull market rather than just a small pump / temporary break from the trend prior to another dump?
Due to the prevalence of bull vs bear market analysis there has to be some sort of well developed indicators that traders use to determine short term bull vs short term bear market rather than just "oh hey the price is finally going up therefore we are now in bull market!" --Or at least I hope the "science" behind the study of markets is more developed than that
For TA you'd be looking at linear and log trendlines. People also look at the 100 and 200 moving averages. MACD is also important.
24.
Post 10713583 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
YESSSSSS!!!! FINALY!!! I'm breakin even!!!!! BREAK EVEN!!! After 9 months of constantly beeing in the red!!! What a joy!!!
If you actively trade you have potential to make more profit.
25.
Post 10720640 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
I think okcoin.com 's future market is a lot better. Much more liquid and has much higher volume.
26.
Post 10737109 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.04h):
ELI5: How can an isolated black box of derivates market with only USD inside put a downward preassure on bitcoin price in USD? (I'm not suprised if it is actually possible.)
If you know where the bitcoin price is going then the derivatives will be a place of free money. That's how derivatives markets affect the underlying price. They offer incentives to change the price.
27.
Post 10837348 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
28.
Post 10864127 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
WSJ news is big.
29.
Post 10871301 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
Guys finex margin calls incoming.
30.
Post 10890970 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.07h):
Let's see how high the bulls can take us.
31.
Post 10891586 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.07h):
Bids on Finex look empty.
32.
Post 10893773 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.07h):
What are current amounts of borrowed money for longs/shorts? Is there a good place to find this for the whole market?
Weekly report time...
BFXData.
Currently 22k in BTC shorts and 24 million in longs.
33.
Post 11323266 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
wow, that $10 price jump.
34.
Post 11342068 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
Currently price just seems to be chopping around. Bands are tightening.
35.
Post 11406609 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Bitcoin Tracker One launching in under 2 hours.
36.
Post 11446592 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
That looked like a nice pump for Bitcoin but we now corrected down.
And if you look at it the price has just consolidated more. We still stayed within the 1D bands.
The 12H bands didn't even increase that much.
3D and weekly bands have continued consolidating.
We are now in a massive BBand squeeze. We're ranging but we're consolidating tighter and tighter, these moves are having less power.
I'm currently neutral.
It'll be interesting which way we breakout. It'll be a gigantic move. A breakdown would be quite bad for Bitcoin. You'd think the fundamentals would point up but that isn't guaranteed.
37.
Post 11607621 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Yup, btc-e has had quite a big bid wall recently.
38.
Post 11612792 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
New highs. Not sure how much power this move has.
39.
Post 11646764 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
Okay finex asks are extremely thick. Though we all know last time they were pulled. Hopefully we found some good support in the 245 level. If we break that it won't be good short term.
I think its time to test the ask walls.
40.
Post 12039477 (copy this link) (by chriswen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
Bitcoin has been slowly dropping in price for the last few days. Now we might be seeing a bit of a bounce. We'll have to see how far it goes. If it fizzles out that won't be a good sign. Right now we're seeing a 4 hours bull div on the MACD. This has worked well occasionally in the past.
Another possible case is that we're going to see consolidation in the markets. This would mean more sideways.