All posts made by ynef in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 12872732 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
http://fiatleak.com/ been running for 30min now, and the coins are 4x times more flowing into USA than in china?!
blyhte masters? yanet yellen? wtf is this?
The US is trying to outbuy China. This is going to be fun to watch!
2.
Post 12884074 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
No , this is unhealthy and violent rise... I would be happier with 1-2% steady gains a day for the next year
The rapid rise in 2013 was unhealthy and violent as well. Look how that turned out for the most of us.
3.
Post 12885233 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Well guess what? This is the correction of 2 bearish years.
enjoy
That's what I was thinking, but you can't ignore the strong fundamentals.
4.
Post 12886000 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Just like yesterday. I wonder if it also happens tomorrow
5.
Post 12886276 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Pump this DCB up baby, need to place a new short...
Doesn't it make more sense to go long at the lows rather than do battle against such a giant bull?
6.
Post 12887505 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Unless these people want the money to go out of China asap. Buy in Chinese exchange, and sell it on a western exchange. Would also explain the premium.
Or Ponzi suckers buy at Chinese exchange, Ponzi operating basterds sell on BTC-e.
Thought of that too. As we've heard the Chinese are having trouble getting money out (source needed) so Bitcoin as a middle-man kind of makes sense in this case.
Can't go vertical 'till the masses start buying in en masse.
The masses can't buy in until they have large money available in a venue in which they can trade.
Masses wont have money in such a venue until the 'signup/KYC/AML' process runs its course.
Signup process takes 1-2 weeks after opening account.
Masses will not open account until FOMO.
Masses won't FOMO until news of rise is omnipresent.
News of rise will not be ubiquitous until ATH.
ATH not until..... next week?
Net: If we can sustain this rally until ATH, the real fireworks will happen 2-4 weeks after that.
Yeah - boom.
A logical explanation, but we are currently bouncing against a very strong resistance and even making lowers lows. The fundamentals are strong, but technical analysis is telling the opposite.
What to believe?
7.
Post 12888428 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
wake up, China. Damnit wake up!
It already woke up and it's correcting like the rest. With a massive force.
8.
Post 12891575 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
For the last 2 nights I've had a dream about BTC dropping to $0. True story.
9.
Post 12891607 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Chinese will be scared to fomo buy as this guaranteed up has ended.
I think there's a pretty good chance that it will start up again, bigger this time, when people realize it's a perfect time to buy. Especially after they look at those fat breakout candles from two days ago. I guess today's candle is vital for this.
10.
Post 12891745 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Serious investors will reconsider this investment proposition.
Sorry to break the bullishness guys!
It's possible, but don't you think that the hope of another 2013 will keep it going? Not to mention the charts aren't actually showing anything catastrophic at this point.
11.
Post 12891754 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Buying and selling these swings is the rational thing to do. Just holding and thinking that it's for some greater good is just a case of bad timing mixed with delusions.
Exactly this. Since Gemini and NYSE are now in the game, it's normal to have such volatility. We've been going sideways for too long anyway.
12.
Post 12891849 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Good morning! 375 resistance still resisting, still in the channel, descending triangle, a lot of movement without any significant news, auction happening today.
I'm not sure how this auction will take place or what it will look like so correct me if I'm wrong, but an auction is something where bidders try to overbid each other. Wouldn't it increase the value then? Besides who would sell off their bought Bitcoins immediately? Especially such a volume. No, they're going to hold it.
Unless it's a private auction where the public has no idea how much the final bidder actually paid.
13.
Post 12891980 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
this was the fbi pumping it up for their auction today, nothing more.
When did the FBI start controlling Chinese markets in such volumes?
Still the $300 seems like a harsh reality.
14.
Post 12894306 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
On BTC-E there's a strong resistance around $454 and that's where we're headed sooner or later. I'm just saying because I've been a couple of weeks too early before...
15.
Post 12895092 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
The winning bidder(s) will be notified Nov. 6.
I think that's when we'll start seeing some movement. Today could just go sideways or sideways until China wakes.
16.
Post 12895112 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
I know it's been covered 100 times but when is the auction (how many hours time) and what will it do to the price?
Will they be dumped if bought low?
They will not be dumped immediately because that would make no sense at all. If anything, the down movement from yesterday was a desperate attempt to make the coins cheaper for the auction.
China still wants up.
Auction will have not much impact because the volume of coins sold there is nothing compared to what's been moving around these last couple of days. It could only make bulls stronger.
17.
Post 12895188 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
I wonder if Gemini owners are one of the bidders.
18.
Post 12895218 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
next 24 hr are critical
I'm reading the FBI's homepage for more info, but I'm not seeing when the announcement will be made. Sure on the 6th of Nov, but only the winning bidder will receive a notification. Any idea when it will go public?
On a side note:
1) How did the USMS get the authority to sell these bitcoins?
On January 27, 2014, the United States District Court for the District of New York entered a Stipulation and Order for Interlocutory Sale of Bitcoins. In this order, both the United States and Ross William Ulbricht agreed that “the United States, in its sole discretion, may sell any portion or all of these bitcoins, on a date or dates and in a manner to be determined by the Government.”
Ross was sentenced life in prison. I wonder what made him agree to let those coins be auctioned? He didn't even get years off or anything.
19.
Post 12895396 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
no fomo today
It's still early.
20.
Post 12895409 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
this level is critical
Shieeeeet....
21.
Post 12895584 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
22.
Post 12897154 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Auction over, time for action?
Nobody knows yet how much they actually paid for those coins. In fact, they haven't paid YET.
23.
Post 12897606 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Anyone think this scenario:
Pump price to give media attention to Bitcoin again.
-surge of new money coming in
Dump price to allow people to buy more/lower price at auction
1-2weeks of new money coming in for fuel upwards, start the next leg up to 600-ATH
24.
Post 12902099 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
“We find robust evidence that computer programming enthusiasts and illegal activity drive interest in bitcoin, and find limited or no support for political and investment motives.”
http://www.coindesk.com/google-search-study-hints-shady-truth-bitcoin-users/
25.
Post 12904413 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
like a clockwork
330$ is looming
Although we did create a slightly calmer tunnel.
26.
Post 12904550 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
3 more hours and the USMS will notify the winning bidder that his bid has been selected.
including the price per bitcoin?
I think the winning bidder has quite a good idea what his bid was, no need for the USMS to remind him.
11 people were bidders and nobody knows (unless the bidders work together secretly)
27.
Post 12904869 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
3 more hours and the USMS will notify the winning bidder that his bid has been selected.
Does anyone have a link to who were the bidders? The quantity of bidders and any description of who they represent?
11 bidders, but not much more.
28.
Post 12904902 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
3 more hours and the USMS will notify the winning bidder that his bid has been selected.
including the price per bitcoin?
I think the winning bidder has quite a good idea what his bid was, no need for the USMS to remind him.
11 people were bidders and nobody knows (unless the bidders work together secretly)
Really, only 11 bidders? That is fairly bearish news, if true. Didn't we have close to 30 bidders in previous auctions?
Yeah.
http://www.coindesk.com/bidder-turnout-low-silk-road-bitcoin-auction/Although it doesn't necessarily mean bears in my opinion. The amount of coins was nothing compared to previous auctions as well.
29.
Post 12904965 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Although it doesn't necessarily mean bears in my opinion. The amount of coins was nothing compared to previous auctions as well.
It was broadly similar in quantity to previous auctions.
You're right, didn't pay attention
30.
Post 12904983 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
3 more hours and the USMS will notify the winning bidder that his bid has been selected.
including the price per bitcoin?
I think the winning bidder has quite a good idea what his bid was, no need for the USMS to remind him.
11 people were bidders and nobody knows (unless the bidders work together secretly)
Really, only 11 bidders? That is fairly bearish news, if true. Didn't we have close to 30 bidders in previous auctions?
Yeah.
http://www.coindesk.com/bidder-turnout-low-silk-road-bitcoin-auction/Although it doesn't necessarily mean bears in my opinion. The amount of coins was nothing compared to previous auctions as well.
Thanks for that link. That may clear up one point for me, and it appears that in a couple of hours, the bidders find out whether they won or not, which could affect their behavior concerning whether they buy more coins or not with the proceeds that they had allocated for potentially winning some of the blocks.
Further, it appears that the public would not find out about the identity of the bidder until Monday, at the earliest, and that is if the winning bidder were to chose to disclose such information.
Gosh. There must have been some crazy spread in the bids this time around based on the then price fluctuations of BTC prices.
We won't know their names, but we'll probably see the result soon enough. China (apparently) isn't pumping anything any more so the auction might have an effect after all.
31.
Post 12910025 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
EUR/USD hasn't been looking great since last year
32.
Post 12911310 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Sooner or later we will test $454 again (btc-e)
33.
Post 12911494 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Can someone just tell me where will we possible head? Up or down? Based on analysies and some speculations
The support is holding us above levels last seen in Dec 2014. We've never been so high before in the entire year of 2015 and we have tested the support and are now slowly making higher highs.
The downward movement a couple of days ago was due to climbing too high too fast and people were panicking because everyone kept saying we will reach the moon, but we didn't so people got scared and sold the shit out of it, but we are now gradually moving higher and coming out of this correction.
Although you can argue that we are currently correcting a huge downward trend on a yearly scale, I really doubt this is the case because there have been just too many positive news coming out regarding Bitcoin. (gemini, nyse, constant news about the rally, the halving etc.)
I personally see no way to go but up and the guys who keep telling you we're through and it's the end are most likely desperate and trying to lower the price so they can get in early because they missed out or even lost a lot in the panic.
If you happen to have a decent amount of coins I wouldn't recommend selling them right now. As for opening a long position, still not sure in the short term.
34.
Post 12912165 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Edit: If you want to make money in Bitcoin or even in the stock market. Wait for a trend to develop and trade off of it in the same direction. Don't try and time the end of bear trends or bull trends.
If you bet the same amount of money each time and take your emotions out of the picture you should be able to win more than you lose and make money overall.
It's a solid strategy, but makes more sense trading the common stuff like EUR/USD. With Bitcoin there's just too many variables that can change the direction fast.
35.
Post 12913218 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Meanwhile I have to adjust my downward tunnel less and less steep.
36.
Post 12917346 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
What's this then?
Is anyone else having trouble (again) accessing this forum?
37.
Post 12918499 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
38.
Post 12939756 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
You wouldn't believe the retarded manoeuvres I pulled off during that parabolic rise, with hefty profits being turned to a small loss, courtesy of Krakens magic dissappearing Sell quantity function, when you change from Limit order, by clicking the Market tab....thought I had made a good whack, but I had just Market Sold 0 Bitcoins.....since this was a leveraged postion to compensate for coming out the market way too early, and I feared a brutal correction at any moment, I panic sold my position......this was still in uppr $300s on the way up......
...Having flew into a rage at the fucking Kraken interface, I then decided to keep away from Bitcoin. When I came back, I bought in at $390. I sat looking at $505, remembering the absolute disgust of selling BTC earlier way too early, I decided I was going to hold. Then Bitcoin crashed down to $365, and I bought more again at $390.
So I am sitting bag holding from $390, and despite having been bullish on Bitcoin for months now (and I still am), If I were to cash out now, I will have actaully taken a loss on Bitcoin.
I am a fucking diabolical trader........anyone who remembers me as a Bear from the ATH, all the way down to the bottom, who kept shorting Bitcoin and reporting winning small, but losing big, will tell you I am a fucking awful trader of Bitcoin......
........But I am learning. Once upon a time, I would have sold at $360. I very nearly did, but the a bitter taste of past mistakes came into my mouth, and I closed the browser, and went outside and done a bit of gardening.....you may argue that Bitcoin, went to $550, so I should have sold, but this is bullshit. I wouldn't have bought in then, and I wouldn't have bought in now, as my emotional confirmation bias would have flip flopped....had I sold at $360, I would have no doubt bought back in at $390!
Wow. +1 for being honest with yourself and admitting these things. I think there are a lot of very butthurt people lurking among us who traded like you.
Next time leave your emotions in the garden
39.
Post 12941532 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
i wish i'm one of those whales
so i will know how it feels to hold such a strong power yet huge risk
Bet it feels like cocaine
40.
Post 12942202 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
For me $350 had to hold for any new long positions.
41.
Post 12942233 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
If we look at 1day MACD indicator wich just turned red today, we can guesstimate that there's plenty of room to fall, unfortunately.Considering that monday-tuesday is usually when new fiat hits exchanges, and we've seen 0 upwards buying pressure, we can also assume this week will be particularly tuogh on the hodlers.
My thoughts exactly.
42.
Post 12942277 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
imminent folo
43.
Post 12942328 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Bulls in space... on their way to the Moon!
lmao. I'm a bull and it just made my day.
44.
Post 12944837 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
So back to $250, then $500 again?
45.
Post 12987850 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
Haven't been monitoring this forum for a week or so, but I just wanted to say that I have a feeling we're going to see some bulls once more. This time from Japan.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34829408
46.
Post 13013665 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
ISIS has a Bitcoin wallet worth $3 million
ISIS makes up to $50 million a month from oil sales
Unless they get BTC for the oil sales I doubt this is going to shake the market considerably.
At first I thought perhaps some government whales might want to disrupt the "normal" flow
and destroy the price, but looking at how little they actually have BTC compared to USD (I assume),
it wouldn't make much sense.
47.
Post 13014300 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
ISIS has a Bitcoin wallet worth $3 million
ISIS makes up to $50 million a month from oil sales
Unless they get BTC for the oil sales I doubt this is going to shake the market considerably.
Where did you get that numbers? If ISIS have so much coins they would manipulate the market and we see better prices. That way they can buy more weapons for jihad.
But that's %99 fake information.
ISIS doesn't hoard btc, not a store of value for them. they simply use it to move money from point A to point B.
Seriously, I think they're not interested in manipulating the bitcoin price at all. They're too busy for that. As far as I know, they got their first weapons from what Bush left behind after the fight with al-Qaeda and are now buying more with the money earned from selling oil to the west.
Sources for those numbers btw:
http://www.techworm.net/2015/11/ghostsec-claimbitcoin-wallet.htmlhttp://www.businessinsider.com/isis-making-50-million-a-month-from-oil-sales-2015-10
48.
Post 13192032 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
49.
Post 13363919 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.39h):
Everyone starts selling at the bottom again
50.
Post 13365040 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.39h):
Beautiful hammer after a significant fall.
51.
Post 13934947 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.44h):
Guys... Is this a head and shoulders?
52.
Post 14564670 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
This is a glitch right?
53.
Post 15023913 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Looks like it's getting tired
54.
Post 15180456 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Looks like a lot of people are starting to believe
55.
Post 15543048 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Is it supposed to do that?
We will see the real price 1-2 months from now.
The fact that it didn't crash, like all the desperate bears here wanted, is a great sign
56.
Post 15765603 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
The price was having a difficult time rising. The market grew impatient.
This
57.
Post 16221605 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
This has become a rather boring and predictable pattern, don't you think? It's funny because yesterday I was looking at the chart and thought to myself it's going down.
58.
Post 16727842 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
59.
Post 16727892 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
i think correction to $700 s are completed , and the way to $800s are open now. 1week chart also proves that.
I'm not so sure. I just looked at the W1 and the Stochastic's are way up there. Fast one's almost crossing.
But who trades Bitcoin with the help of charts anyway?
60.
Post 16766545 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Well... at least Christmas is still ahead of us.
61.
Post 16766593 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Ok, not much to worry about in my opinion. Just your regular FUD.
62.
Post 16859234 (copy this link) (by ynef) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Meh. I'm always late for the party.
