All posts made by pleaseexplainagain in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 11501745 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
I call this stagnation thing gothic. not in the architecture sense but those young people dressed in black and looking glum/angry even on a sunny day. I am 61 and have seen goths since I first noticed them at about 11?. The number of goths leaving gothdom (eg to get married, take up jobs etc) seems to perfectly match the new numbers joining (ie from the 13-18 age group). So at any time over the last 50 years the same number of goths seem to be walking around.
2.
Post 11509451 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
There seems to be a bit more noise on here than usual with what seems to me to be a very minor change in price.
using the date today 1 june and going back to 1 june 2012 you will find
1. the price has changed each year by $111 (up), $538 (up) and $430 (down)
2. the percentage change each year is 2180% (up), 472% (up) and 66% (down)
sure what happens to the bitcoin price in the future will be from different factors (eg there may not be another willy bot) but it is very possible that the new factors will create a similar order of change.
In summary stop moaning about change unless it is way above the levels we have had in the past.
3.
Post 11689872 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
Do you know if there's a way to see what fee they paid? Was it like normal fee of 0.0001 btc? (About 2 or 3 cents)
If so, wouldn't a move to a minimum fee of say ten cents largely fix the problem?
I watched the transactions for a short while during the test, I remember seeing many 0.0001, several 0.0002, a few with larger fees. I don't know whether the 0.0002 were part of the test or not. Perhaps they answer that in
this threadRaising the minimum fee to ~0.10 USD would make this sort of attack more expensive, but it would still be cheap and simple compared to, say, a 51% attack by an outside party. Also raising the block size to 8 MB would make it 8x more expensive.
A mandatory 0.10 USD fee would have other advantages. It would encourage miners to fill blocks. It would cut down annoying small transactions that are being spammed to random addresses for advertisement purposes. However, it would have some drawbacks. It would harm things like tumbling and gambling, which many people consider important. It would also probably cut the number of transactions by 50% or more, that would look bad on charts.
Also, do you know why Satoshi decided to limit the block size in the first place? I mean, I've heard it was to prevent some kind of spam attack, but now people are saying that increasing block size will prevent spam attack... I've never seen a good description of the attack they were trying to mitigate by limiting block size in the first place. Best guess is simply to prevent bloat?
There are posts by Satoshi on this forum discussing that; check his posts through his user profile. The original limit was 32 MB. Then people thought that a malicious miner might create 32 MB blocks full of garbage transactions, that would take a long time to send across the network, validate, download when syncing, etc.; that could break some nodes or clients. So Satoshi and/or Gavin changed the limit to 1 MB, and commented that it should be raised later if necessary.
in the future when the average person is starting to get around to using bitcoin a set fee rather than a percentage fee would have some adoption advantages. Most people are bad at maths (or rather never got taught properly) so even relating percentages to a base is scary for them even if the resulting cost (fee) is small - they just are in the dark. But they know what 10 cents is or $2 or whatever. It may also help get more remittances via bitcoin as they can compare bitcoin fees to western union (although at present the service provision of the two is not currently like for like). If we want more "demand' them some bitcoin development decisions may have to be increasingly market (ie user) focused should there be a choice of options to solve a given issue
4.
Post 11758841 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
NHJT, tarmi, luckyenough, ezmoneyezlife, Yourmother and the dumbshit nlc have gone awfully quiet.
What happened to double digits?!
they are looking for the password of the accounts they use to post train and rocket pictures and to say that bitcoin will reach 1M in one year when in the middle of a bubble, like in 2013
So true.
the problem with rockets in the past is that they have been things like the willy bot. people chased that rocket and got burnt (badly).
it was only a few weeks ago we were all saying there is no new demand - which was and is still true.
further the market was manipulated to not drop below $200.
we now suddenly have a bit of a surge that looks to me just like typical/traditional bitcoin volatility.
since most of the buying/selling is speculative the price in a months time could be anywhere from say $1000-$60.
buying slowly in small amounts for the longer term it will matter little to your long term wealth whether you get your next few bitcoins at $60 or $1000 as you will still be very rich. But it will matter if you are buying in big time hoping to clean up big time in a matter of days but hey go for it if you have deep pockets or a tolerant lender if the money is borrowed
5.
Post 11819286 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
I think we are over focusing on the current price - we know at the top most of it is speculation but if you look at the bottom the story is still very bullish if you are slowly buying a little regularly at the daily price.
below are 2 charts. they track the lowest price in a year from 2012.
the first assumes the $177 2015 bottom will prove to be a genuine bottom.
the second that if big whales has not intervened it would have gone to $60.
I have made factors that are not very mathematically good but work crudely enough to be useful for me.
they show that
1. if $60 was the bottom and I buy now at $270 the bottom in 2017 will still be higher (at $360) and even in 2016 the bottom will still be quite good (at $146).
2. if $177 was the true bottom then buying now at $270 the bottom may be way higher (at $626) in one year (2016)
I see those numbers as very bullish compared to other things people can invest in (shares etc) as well as supporting the idea of bitcoin.
Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is underestimation
2012 $4 $4
2013 $14 3.537 $13 8.83%
2014 $50 3.537 $302 -83.43%
2015 $177 3.537 $177 0.00%
2016 $626 3.537
2017 $2,214
Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is Underestimation
2012 $4 $4
2013 $10 2.46 $13 -24.31%
2014 $24 2.46 $302 -91.98%
2015 $60 2.46 $60 -0.75%
2016 $146 2.46
2017 $360 2.46
6.
Post 11819531 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
I think we are over focusing on the current price - we know at the top most of it is speculation but if you look at the bottom the story is still very bullish if you are slowly buying a little regularly at the daily price.
below are 2 charts. they track the lowest price in a year from 2012.
the first assumes the $177 2015 bottom will prove to be a genuine bottom.
the second that if big whales has not intervened it would have gone to $60.
I have made factors that are not very mathematically good but work crudely enough to be useful for me.
they show that
1. if $60 was the bottom and I buy now at $270 the bottom in 2017 will still be higher (at $360) and even in 2016 the bottom will still be quite good (at $146).
2. if $177 was the true bottom then buying now at $270 the bottom may be way higher (at $626) in one year (2016)
I see those numbers as very bullish compared to other things people can invest in (shares etc) as well as supporting the idea of bitcoin.
Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is underestimation
2012 $4 $4
2013 $14 3.537 $13 8.83%
2014 $50 3.537 $302 -83.43%
2015 $177 3.537 $177 0.00%
2016 $626 3.537
2017 $2,214
Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is Underestimation
2012 $4 $4
2013 $10 2.46 $13 -24.31%
2014 $24 2.46 $302 -91.98%
2015 $60 2.46 $60 -0.75%
2016 $146 2.46
2017 $360 2.46
I've been buying bitcoins regularly and on an ongoing basis, but my average buyin price is still near $500... hahahhaha... gonna take a while before I am in the black... I like the idea of $600 coins in 2016 or $2,200 coins in 2017, but the idea of $360 coins in 2017 would NOT be so helpful. to my psychology... but I suppose, even that reflects btc prices continuing to increase in value from today's price.
yes my average buy price is sadly around what yours is but my chart says the the future is very bright and over time coins bought a year or two earlier at so called "high" prices will seem like a "steal". Optimism is contagious
7.
Post 11847855 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
is mt gox that long ago? then speculators chased the willy bot up to $1000. the bot started it ie manipulated it but greed kept it going.
now we have had the price imho held at around the $230 level ie manipulated - there may be no bot but the effect is the same - ie price altering.
those holding the price from dropping were waiting for whatever reason for the upswing. well it has come and is fast $230 to $290 in a matter of days after weeks of no real upwards movements in price.
so if buying in at $290 or higher you have got to ask yourself - what am I chasing and whatever it is when it stops what will happen to the price without buying support.
then again if it pops to $600 and you cash out there you have still doubled your money.
I love bitcoin when its like this. Welcome back brother Volatility
8.
Post 11926245 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.21h):
I just checked Finex's Twitter and they posted this:
"We had an issue while rolling out an update, we're working to get the site back up ASAP. Sorry for the inconvenience."
Hopefully it's just a technical glitch.
Thanks, I have been regularly checking their tweets and they must have tweeted a minute after the last time I checked. This is the link to the latest one about an update problem.
https://twitter.com/bitfinex/status/623168945332158464Btc-e also tweeted why they are offline. It's got something to do with a datacenter. Here's the link to it in case anyone want's to check for themselves.
https://twitter.com/btcecom/status/623116256334454784It seems like it's only a coincidence that both sites went down about the same time.
this is why the winklevii will do so well when they launch. people will have much less suspicion/fear (often justified with gox etc) when their exchange is down
9.
Post 12126620 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
Everyone was expecting a crash into the $250s, including me. The longer it takes to get there (IF it ever gets there), the more resistance will grow. The whales swim a little closer to the surface. We are one day closer to the halving than yesterday.
Yes, there is way too much long leverage, but whoever attempts a margin squeeze of the bulls risks losing all of their coins and then some. My positions are either long or margin long now.
Printing presses are starting up all over the world for a currency war. Gold is climbing. Stock markets are teetering. Bonds are paying almost no interest and the dumb money is starting to realize that the smart money already left the building.
Buckle up, boys. Big Money has been sitting in cash for months and now they know that not even THAT is safe anymore. Throw in some fear of capital controls and we are looking at a brewing perfect storm for crypto.
We're not on the launchpad yet, but the crawler is inching us towards it. Ground Control is going through checklists. News crews are setting up cameras. It's coming.
I think you are right. at some point bitcoin will "click" as you say in sports and demand will rise. I actually think the New York business for example is good for bitcoin in the longer term. There are still places for people to buy if they wish to avoid identification but most people that use banks - and it is these people we are after - are not unhappy about being identified. And where an organisation (here exchanges) has got the "approval' of the regulator then that gives them comfort and comfort will turn to use over time. Remember bitcoin is in no rush as of itself. ie it works now and will work in the future. It is always 'on" and ready for adoption as people get comfortable.
10.
Post 12152018 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
if public gets notice of this fork-thing we could easily go double digits.
Why?
public doesnt understand those technical details. all that is noticed is that there i a turmoil going on and we have suddenly two versions of bitcoin. thats EXTREMELY irritating!
agree although not sure it will hit it to 2 digits.
previously anything that made bitcoin look "bad' eg used for buying drugs people know that drugs were bought with fiat long before bitcoin existed or the mtgox things - people know that intermediaries eg banks do corrupt things eg the LIBOR scandal.
None of these bad things were actually related to bitcoin itself which I have always been telling people is very 'solid'. But to the person in the street the fork is the equivalent of having to look at very $20 note to see if the serial numbers on each end match. if this happened with fiat there would be much uncertainty.
It is never a good thing for bitcoin when we are trying to tell people that it overcomes fiat issues and yet we now seem we have an issue that fiat does not have.
11.
Post 12154568 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
So is everyone supposed to sell their coins and then repurchase them on Bitcoin XT?
And where do you go to buy Bitcoin XT coins?
You need not do anything until the actual fork i.e. once 75% of miners are using XT. At that point, QT is unlikely to recover; miners will quickly switch to mining the longest chain (XT).
For regular users running Bitcoin software (i.e. a node), there's really no reason not to switch to XT (except as a not-taken-into-account protest vote). If XT wins, you'll be on XT. If XT doesn't achieve 75% or miner support, nothing changes.
Well what's all the hubbub about then? Sounds like a smooth transition. Nobody will know the difference. I can't believe people are so stubborn. They are disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. In fear of "centralization"?
It sounds like a very decentralized process. But majority does rule.
I'm pro-fork.
I think the reason for all the hubbub is because that with no federal bank running things it is important to people who are in bitcoin in part for that very reason
1.how consensus is reached incl how and by whom aspects are "sold' as being necessary/good and
2. what precedent it might set that lead us down a certain path
3. who after it all sorts out has their nose left out of joint and what action will they take
tldr - what happens over this matters
12.
Post 12183936 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
Strong buy now imo. Anyone agree?
What happened was due to swaps. Did you watch the other exchanges? They followed to a certain point, but there was no selling pressure below $220 even when the sky was falling. These are cheap coins.
not sure they are cheap coins.
is it not likely that the current price ($232) is the old recent price of about $250 discounted down for the core/xt uncertainty? ie the spike may not have been about the core/xt issue but by happening it has lead people to react ie by not bringing it back to $250.
if then it can drop $18 on $250 (7%?) that easily/quickly I think there is likely to be much more prospect of it dropping again in more chunks as larger and larger numbers react to the core/xt uncertainty.
No market likes uncertainty especially not a volitile market like bitcoin. There was litte new demand before but now i see there being none until well into 2016 when things might be clearer. So its only existing players trying to outsmart existing players. sh*t fighting is its common use name. no place for weak hands
13.
Post 12190337 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
We are going down from 280$ to 220$ in less than 10 days because two shills want to prove their might by forking bitcoin?
The answer from community is clear now, Gavin & Mike ?
I think Gavin & Mike are quite content seeing that the uptake of XT among nodes passed 13% in just 4 days, and that two blocks have already been mined with it. That's a clear answer from the community so far.
I think these two points of view sum up the gap between the viewpoints nicely.
Comment 1 is talking about store of value ie they may or may not actually prefer core over xt but certainly do not like it when the prospect of moving to one option lowers their wealth.
Comment 2 is saying that the community will decide and the resulting effect longer term on the price is a "cost" that has to be borne as the community decides things not wealth movements.
While comment 2 is "purer' in bitcoin terms than comment 1, comment 1 reflects more where bitcoin has got to after 6? years ie that changes cannot be now seen in isolation. For example I would say this core/xt argument is not only hurting the price but will lead to no new merchant acceptance.
I am not sure these two viewpoints are easily reconciled and will rise much more frequently from now on in all things to do with bitcoin
14.
Post 12233832 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.24h):
Every time at come back to my desk BTC price is lower! Not sure if its worse seeing the stock market crashing or Bitcoin
But I'm ever optimistic when it comes to btc. Hasn't been so long ago, I can still remember the magic and the awesomeness of bitcoin and the excitement. We need to find the magic again! (making money)
ok, trying not to get discouraged here lol, but I have faith it will come back and be strong again... one day
Aside from the current issues (core/xt etc) a below $200 price will be really telling. I remember when it was $300 and above lots of posters said if it ever went below $200 they would buy huge amounts of coins as it was so so cheap - and if it went to $100 they would by many times more the number they bought at $200.
so if it goes below $200 and is there for a few days it will show that there is no real money to back up the bravado. (It may rise of course masked by the manipulators that took it up when it went to $166 so it may be diffcult to tell 'who" has shelled out for coins). Time will tell....................
15.
Post 12357156 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
here is something to make you shudder.
In New Zealand we have a current huge house price spike in part due to foreign investors "speculating' the price will go up even more.
As these people are hard to get at by the tax people (we have just introduced a capital gains tax they may 'avoid") the government is introducing a system where intermediaries have to get the tax.
see the article below.
Imagine if governments introduced that for bitcoin ie saying they do not know if the bitcoins being sent from person a to person b have been taxed properly or at all when with person a so they will ask for a 20% tax as it passes through an exchange (eg the soon to be approved twins one) or if person b is a recognisable entity eg a big retailer like amazon they will ask for the 20% from them. (Retailers already collect gst ( VAT) here so administratively it could be done overnight).
that might knock the current price of $200-$300 around a bit eh?
they may be slow but tax collectors usually always get their way in the end
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/71846181/new-withholding-tax-on-residential-land
16.
Post 12357254 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
here is something to make you shudder.
In New Zealand we have a current huge house price spike in part due to foreign investors "speculating' the price will go up even more.
As these people are hard to get at by the tax people (we have just introduced a capital gains tax they may 'avoid") the government is introducing a system where intermediaries have to get the tax.
see the article below.
Imagine if governments introduced that for bitcoin ie saying they do not know if the bitcoins being sent from person a to person b have been taxed properly or at all when with person a so they will ask for a 20% tax as it passes through an exchange (eg the soon to be approved twins one) or if person b is a recognisable entity eg a big retailer like amazon they will ask for the 20% from them. (Retailers already collect gst ( VAT) here so administratively it could be done overnight).
that might knock the current price of $200-$300 around a bit eh?
they may be slow but tax collectors usually always get their way in the end
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/71846181/new-withholding-tax-on-residential-landA lot of unlikely "what ifs" in there.
agree it may not happen quite like this but the tax men have traditionally collected tax by tracing movements in fiat. Where that begins to be replaced in part by bitcoin they will go after bitcoin or the tax take available to be used for government spending will go down and no government will want that
17.
Post 12359116 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
here is something to make you shudder.
In New Zealand we have a current huge house price spike in part due to foreign investors "speculating' the price will go up even more.
As these people are hard to get at by the tax people (we have just introduced a capital gains tax they may 'avoid") the government is introducing a system where intermediaries have to get the tax.
see the article below.
Imagine if governments introduced that for bitcoin ie saying they do not know if the bitcoins being sent from person a to person b have been taxed properly or at all when with person a so they will ask for a 20% tax as it passes through an exchange (eg the soon to be approved twins one) or if person b is a recognisable entity eg a big retailer like amazon they will ask for the 20% from them. (Retailers already collect gst ( VAT) here so administratively it could be done overnight).
that might knock the current price of $200-$300 around a bit eh?
they may be slow but tax collectors usually always get their way in the end
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/71846181/new-withholding-tax-on-residential-landBitcoin has already been classfied as VAT exempt in multiple tax jurisdictions , don't go expecting anyone to classify it as a VATable.
sorry did not mean to imply that it would attract VAT itself - just that as retailers have already been forced to be VAT collectors and have easily adjustable computerised sales recording systems so they can be be forced to add a bitcoin tax of say 20% as well as any VAT. ie if you pay by bitcoin it will cost you more for the item than fiat or credit card.
if I was anyone that was concerned about bitcoin hurting their business (eg bank? western union?) I would be getting my lobbyists onto the politicians saying that if people cannot prove how they got the money ie cannot prove it has already been taxed then they need to tax it at some point. It would of course lead to many anomalies (and cases of double taxation) but that is not their problem. In fact the more bitcoin seems hard/potentially unfair etc to use they more they win.
bitcoin has not yet been faced with the status quo fighting back . when it does it will be fierce and nasty. it will make the core/xt internal fight look like a walk in the park
18.
Post 12406885 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):
Why so much agro and upset about Jorge's posts? He's not threatening you (or perhaps he is somehow?). He has a view and he expresses and articulates that view pretty well. I don't agree with much of what he says either but I appreciate that his posts are coherent, quite well written and free from personal attacks or vitriol. In fact, he's very gracious in his responses to many of you that get all so incensed that he's expressing the views that he is; and this is indicative that some of what he's saying has seriously hooked your innards and is tearing at you in some manner. That you're responding in such an affronted way says to me you're not 100% sure and his line of thought on this stuff causes internal conflict.
If you don't agree with his take on Bitcoin (and crypto in general), just point out calmly and unemotionally where his logic, assumptions or beliefs are flawed. I think it's very good to have someone like him putting the ideas up he does as it makes for interesting consideration of his views versus alternatives.
Isn't this what a thread like this is about?
Your gracious friend has been trolling this forum for years now. I agree that there is no need to get all fired up about it, but to
"point out calmly and unemotionally where his logic, assumptions or beliefs are flawed" is even more of a waste.
agree Jorge's posts are coherent etc even though I do not always agree with what he has said. But both he and those opposing his views about the benefits or otherwise of inflation/deflation etc seem to talking about some "
stable' position in the future that I am not sure might ever come to pass.
I see the store of wealth/intrinsic value of bitcoin at present being between $2 -$40 (if it exists at all). the rest is heavy and speculation.
So the 'working person' is not going to buy bitcoin as though it may be deflationary they might lose (at $250 per coin now) over $200 before that benefit kicks in. That is not a good deal
For the rich that build skyscrapers they might buy a few bitcoins in case it really does go up in price 2-3 times per annum on average across 5-10 years but most of their money will go into other risky investments where there has been some history of good gains eg building retirement villages. Bitcoin is too unpredictable to put lots of money into it at present.
With gold it has moved about 5% over 5 years. That to me is a store of wealth. Bitcoin is years away from that sort of "
stable" position.
19.
Post 12417942 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):
Technically that's a gross oversimplification of the math and processes involved. It will tighten supply, which could send the price up tenfold. Unless it disrupts the mining industry in such a way that it sends BTC plummeting.
A tightened supply is only a factor if there's increasing demand. Right now there are more than enough existing coins for everyone and mined coins are only a fraction of daily volume. Maybe there'll be a psychosomatic boost but I hope people aren't pinning too much on it.
Even just keeping current demand will ensure a rise in price when there is a smaller supply.
since january the price has been in the $200-$300 range and it is changing according to manipulation ie a few players altering the market so I do not think we have "normal' demand as in other sectors that might alter a little to some small change in the rate if of supply (like the halving).
so we will never know ie I expect after the halving for the price to still be in the $200-$300 range if the few players wish for it to be so.
so its not about supply but demand (or rather the lack of it). we need a demand test like the amount of new money that COIN might attract to get a feel where the price might go. If the new comers do not buy in at a $200-$300 level then it is an indication it is too high to get demand
20.
Post 12638807 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Gemini launched, and the price didn't tank, actually nothing really happened to the price because of Gemini recently, unlike the Coinbase launch. Good deal, let's continue a steady uptrend through the halving!
Gemini appeals to what i call the "cautious adventurer". The 'adventurer" market for bitcoin is quite small as so many people do not know about or are unsure what is going to happen with it so only a small % (adventurers) will be intersted in buying at all.
Then we come to the exchanges - the existing will have accommodated most of the adventurers if they had really wanted bitcoins. Gemini though would have appealed to the cautious as it has the normal bank "protections" but they would still are just a subset of the adventurer market not a new market.
So it was not expected there would be queues to get involved especially since bitcoin has since the beginning of the year been in a $200-$300 range. So if it went to $200 soon and they bought in at $240 (current price) they could easily have lost $40 (16%) on every bitcoin. And if they were thinking their 'rushing' to buy might put pressure on the price (and that is possible) they would be even more reluctant to act.
21.
Post 12744637 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):
Mind blown in 3. . . 2. . . 1. . .
Could this be the rise to $10,000 USD / BTC ? ? ? Not so much a comment as an observation, if you are saying it repeats but bigger wont the other bit also be longer? (the flat part)
if the first rise was caused by the willy bot like the second rise was (to over a $1000) then they may well be a "pattern". But is a willy bot pattern ie unless we have another willy bot I do not think this helps in speculating on future price levels - but hey this is bitcoin - anything is possible
22.
Post 12750573 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):
It's a chicken and egg problem. Without assurance that the network will scale, we have to assume it won't (until more information causes us to change our assumptions). So worldwide economic system goes into a severe depression. This may be inflationary or DEFLATIONARY. Without active Central Bank intervention, it will be deflationary (the money multiplier goes into reverse) meaning instead of a bunch of rapidly devaluing dollars, everybody has no dollars at all. In that scenario, Bitcoin may be useful for evading capital controls, protection against depositor bail-ins, etc, but NOT as a hedge on non-existent inflation.
If there is runaway inflation/hyperinflation, Bitcoin may be useful for evading PRICE controls and as an inflation hedge.
The problem is that even assuming one of these scenarios takes place (a safe assumption IMHO), the network would crash with the extra transaction load. We're not talking about a doubling of transactions. We're talking about a doubling EVERY WEEK. Even if one of these scaling solutions is implemented, transaction capacity could easily still be exceeded. There is no way currently to deal with a problem of that magnitude short of removing the blocksize limit altogether.
If another cryptocoin scales better, people will be essentially forced to use it instead and they would have no reason to ever switch back because the altcoin core devs can simply copy any code improvements Bitcoin adopts to compete. Miners who switch also would have to reason to switch back because hashpower makes a network more secure which causes demand for coins to go up which makes mining more profitable which brings in more miners and hashpower in a virtuous cycle. Once the initiative and momentum are lost, it's lost forever. reference AOL, MySpace, etc.
Citing coupla early internet
fail of a corporations does not make your argument much better. surely by some time bitpay et al. could implode.
Management that is in denial and slow to react to changing situations on the ground is the issue. It's very relevant.
I think your points are spot on. The fiat system works ok until it doesnot. And its then one of the major reasons for having bitcoin comes into play. Its like overseas travel insurance - the chances of getting really sick and hospitalised are low but when they happen you need the insurance or you are stuffed. Unless we are sure how bitcoin is going to react (scale) there is concern. Its a bit like thinking you have full travel insurance when the medical clause is missing. you are only cover for losing your camera
23.
Post 12788184 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
That's it for me. I sold all with a $5 profit per coin. I'm not going to lose money and I'm not going to sit on them for another year watching the price bounce between $200 and $300. I want to see the price go beyond $350 before I buy again. I have better things to do with my money.
I think that is a smart move. unfortunately my av buy price is way above $300 so am holding on in the small chance of not losing so much when I do sell soemm of bitcoins - but if you can get out now with a profit I think sensible as I consider the price cannot get above say $350 any time soon ( ie as in 2-3 years at least and that is being optimistic)
the problem is no new demand and the winklevoss twin nor halving etc are not doing anything to offset that fact.
so the price is going to languish in the $200-$300 for some time (and may well drop for a period under $200).
24.
Post 12804795 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
I'm looking at Nov. 2013 late rise and still can't shake out how quickly the price rose.
The idea of this repeating simply has me in awe. Especially if you consider the amount of money standing on the sideline at this point are straight out frightening
I read almost the same from another member not that long ago.
Would be crazy if the same thing happens almost 2 years later again.But this time please without hardcore dumping!
so effectively you are saying you want a new willy bot. be careful what you wish for. I am sure there are more losers than winners from the mt goxxing
25.
Post 12830820 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
correction to 300$ imminent?
yes for whatever reason buying pressure stopped about $333. Its already down to $318 and nearly the $313 it opened at today. We may see a lot bigger drop than to $300 - as in low 200s as all those that rushed in rush right back out.
26.
Post 12830898 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
correction to 300$ imminent?
yes for whatever reason buying pressure stopped about $333. Its already down to $318 and nearly the $313 it opened at today. We may see a lot bigger drop than to $300 -
as in low 200s as all those that rushed in rush right back out. Either it's moon or doom on here.
The price is 318 after a parabolic rise and a minor pullback. Could it go lower? Sure. But bitcoin is heavily shorted and the ask side is looking mighty thin everywhere. And of course retail is expecting the price to return back from whence it came. Short away!
can someone tell me the difference between "parabolic rise" and "bubble". to me the first just sounds less potentially frightening but are they not ( with bitcoin at least since 21012) the same thing?
27.
Post 12831062 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
What's wrong with people here? If the price returns back from green (e.g. $10) into a daily green of e.g. $2 you'e trying to tell me that it is going down by $100? If anything, this rise is very similar to that one in late 2013. You can easily see this at Bitstamp (note: I'm not saying that it will follow the same pattern). Stop with the trolling and pointless observations.
we should get ready for landing to about 250 each
No.
my reading of late 2013 was that the willy bot massively bubbled the price to about $1000 and when it popped it went all the way down to $177 over about 12 months. seems to me then low $200 after this one is actually optimistic.
unless there is new demand and not just new speculators it has to pop at some point
28.
Post 12858417 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
Im missing the bear voices here.
Hello Tarmi, we know you are reading
I am still bearish short term so I will oblige you.
we have gone up $54 since 25 october - about 19%. that is too huge and too fast - its commonly known as a pump
and that on no real change to the bitcoin environment.
so it just will make it worse when we correct back to low $200.
happy?
29.
Post 12862843 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
So 7 days ago we were at 285
Remember those days?
I also remember 2 days in January when the price went from $265 to $177.
Bitcoin is not always your friend
30.
Post 12868450 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
There's no way we're gonna keep going, is it?
yes and then no
yes - we have been going up in the past few days at first 1-2% per day then 3-4% now 10%.
this is not being driven by any real news but by ourselves just punting it up so it may well gone on for a while at even higher % increases
so yes we may well go to $500, $700 or $1000.
but then at some point we will collectively loose our nerve and be down to $200 ish in a few months after the ath.
its what happened when we hopped on the willy bot train and it will happen here again.
and long before willy bot there was a period when we rocketed to $31 and crashed to $2.
rinse and repeat
31.
Post 12906261 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
If we go up and break 500, it's fuckin on bitches.
What is on
it keeps calling us the bitches acting like a bobble head for past 4 hours.
Aint nobody got time fo dat.
will you to fuckwads get a clue, breaking 460 is all that's needed to get it on
Yea fuckwad bitches!
Look whose the f*ckwads now.
Feel the burn baby
Weekend dump? I think so. $370's For now.
I think so too. This is the real
the bubble has well and truly burst. price cannot hold $400 and in a couple of weeks will not hold $300 and in a couple of months will be low $2xx.
despite what some said on the way up eg that many new people had "discovered' bitcoin it was just the existing people playing around. And if the Chinese were really using it to get around capital controls seriously they would still be doing so ie buying.
32.
Post 12959951 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Getting nervous yet bears?
we bears are not nervous in fact I am surprised the price has come down to the mid 300s so fast - i thought it might take a 2-4 weeks.
if you look at an alltime chart that shows the willybot high it took about 12 months to hit its bottom at about $250 (about a 75% drop).
So while I think the rate of the decrease will slow we will be low $2xx within 3 months.
Thats not just bearish but also realistic
33.
Post 12983874 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
Surrender bears.
if anyone is not bearish short term ie for the next couple of months they need to stop drinking or drug taking as it is leading them down the wrong path. but hey we are all free to choose our paths - mine though does not end with a cliff
34.
Post 13097396 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Buy now or cry later gentlemen!
there is no need to promote a "buy now" campaign as there are already lots of foolish people pushing the price up at the moment.
but its just a temporary blip on the longer slide back down to the $250-$300 range.
I do not believe i will be one crying later by staying out with the price running around like a chicken with its head just cut off
35.
Post 13152487 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
Gotta be honest here...what do the Bears think they see here?
We are going much higher...when the composite operator drops the bomb and takes out the stops!
cheers
Maybe so many are jaded and/or spoiled over nearly two years of a bear market - expecting the continuation of such downward price manipulations and ongoing failures to really rally?
No i am still bearish. it is less then a month since the big pump so it take some time to go down properly ie to the $250 type mark. all the current stuff is just "noise''. longer term (ie 2years plus out) buying now at $360 might work out alright for people but if they hold off a bit and they will be able to get a lot more for their dollars when it is $250-$280 in 6 months time.
36.
Post 13163542 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
Seriously, after the last 2 months, it seems like every +3% move upwards that breaks a certain technical level is seriously tested within 1 hr. Whoever is driving the price action loves to shake out people along the way. They like to see how good the support is after we make new highs. And a lot of the price action has totally been driven by China time. I mean, who the fuck is around in America trading at 2AM on Saturday to react to the dumps? Seriously?
China controls this entire market, and I'm a little worried because whoever is doing these shakeouts/dumps by now really knows how well the institutional trading bots on finex/okcoin/btcc behave.
I totally agree. its why much of the so called market analysis predicitng price movements has little relationship to what is happening behind the scenes.
people should remember that the ATH of about $1100 was false in that it was concocted. while mt gox has gone other players are still doing the equivalent with the price
37.
Post 13189083 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
it has a certain beauty to it...
yes lets all rush in any buy and happily forget
....that other posters recently highlighted the operation of bots working hard
....that many exchanges operate insider trading
......that bitcoin bounces down as hard as it bounces up eg 31 to 2, 1100 to 250
but if you gotta buy you gotta buy. good luck.
38.
Post 13219738 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
Its beginning to look a lot like Christmas .... come on 500
A little bit of December of 2013 maybe?
yes the willybot has been replaced by the yuan-a-bot and now that it has finally created much FOMO with a touch of MMM for good measure so .the price just like dec 2103 is running itself. 500 or even 1000 is possible as we found out in 2013.
party time for others (as I remain staunchly bearish)
39.
Post 13244111 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
the price has gone from $250 to $450 (up 80%) in just 2 months with no real positive news eg no increased adoption etc.
Does anyone else besides me call that a pump? And after a pump comes dumpy, dumpy, doo.
Let the buyer beware.
40.
Post 13244474 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
the price has gone from $250 to $450 (up 80%) in just 2 months with no real positive news eg no increased adoption etc.
IMHO, price has gone from $1000 to $250 in just one year with no real negative news. And BTW, adoption is constantly increasing!
wasn't the drive to $1000 created by the willybot so that when it all came unstuck the price simply went down to around where it might have otherwise have been. ie it was pumped up and collapsed. it did go down on no negative news (other than the thing being a 'have') but I note it also went up to $1000 on no real positive news. to me the $1000 ATH was just a faster/steeper rise than the current one but otherwise its much the same and that makes me suspicious.
41.
Post 13255848 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
price doubled in the last 90 days.
oh, beloved up-trend, please stay for good...
if you look at the first post on this thread the price was $72. That was about 11 lots of 90 days ago. with a current price of $460 then bitcoin has been going up 18.5% compounded per 90 day period.
if my maths are right that would seem to make the latest 90 day period (up 100%) look a little pumped in comparison to the longer term up-trend?
42.
Post 13453896 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
It looks like the 430$ conspiracy is here to stay. My bitcoin price ticker on the phone is set on 430$ and I can't stand it anymore, it comes and goes regularly and also I can't read what is happening anymore.
The holidays confused me I guess
True, stagning price is good for reliability of btc but I just can't stand it anymore xD
I do not think the price movement deserves to be called "stagnating'. one month ago (dec 7 ) we closed at $395. Since then there have been several closes over $460 and a one day drop from $451 to $417. Simply being around $430 for the last few days is just "circumstance'.
I think we have gone up since the $250-$300 period a little too fast and a little too high so I expect it to be $350ish in another month. That $80 drop (about 20%) should see the word bear replace the words stag and bull
43.
Post 13500774 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
I think the current $450 price might well be enough to act as a tipping point for the cautious to start buying and holding.
We have wanted people to buy regularly but to date the outcomes have been very choppy. Now bitcoin has been around long enough that the numbers show that it is a very good thing to do even with some choppiness.
Lets say you buy just 1 bitcoin a year on your birthday which is 30 November ( the date of the gox ath so the “worst’ date possible to buy).
below is the average price you will have paid for your bitcoins if you started in 2010, then 2011 etc, The number in brackets is the number of bitcoins you would have.
$315(6)
$378(5)
$472(4)
$626(3)
$376(2)
$376(1)
So:
starting in 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 your av bitcojn cost price is below the current price.
starting in 2012 you are roughly breaking even
starting in 2013 you are in a loss
if bitcoin stays $450+ for a few years then even with the very unlucky start date in 2013 you might come out ok.
the lesson here it seems to me is that historically buying bitcoin has been a good investment aside from the other benefits that bitcoin offers.
44.
Post 13500929 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
I think the current $450 price might well be enough to act as a tipping point for the cautious to start buying and holding.
We have wanted people to buy regularly but to date the outcomes have been very choppy. Now bitcoin has been around long enough that the numbers show that it is a very good thing to do even with some choppiness.
Lets say you buy just 1 bitcoin a year on your birthday which is 30 November ( the date of the gox ath so the “worst’ date possible to buy).
below is the average price you will have paid for your bitcoins if you started in 2010, then 2011 etc, The number in brackets is the number of bitcoins you would have.
$315(6)
$378(5)
$472(4)
$626(3)
$376(2)
$376(1)
So:
starting in 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 your av bitcojn cost price is below the current price.
starting in 2012 you are roughly breaking even
starting in 2013 you are in a loss
if bitcoin stays $450+ for a few years then even with the very unlucky start date in 2013 you might come out ok.
the lesson here it seems to me is that historically buying bitcoin has been a good investment aside from the other benefits that bitcoin offers.
I'm not sure if I understand your chart exactly,
but I do know one thing, the world has not been priced in bitcoin between 2010 and present.
Therefore, it would make more sense to price your birthday gift in some form of fiat.
For example, every b-day, November 30, you buy $365 in BTC ($1 for each day of the year, blah blah blah), then your average is going to come out much better, but the scenario would be much more realistic, in the way that I have outlined it..
yes you are quite correct. you would come out much better off and your buying pattern in $ is more normal. However I did it this way to show even looking at it from a very bad angle (using bitcoins) the outcome is fine. That should convince even the doomsayers to get out and buy and we need both the optimists and pessimists to be buyers.
45.
Post 13543113 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
The number of transactions a day is increasing and the blocks are getting fuller.
Good. So, it is time to increase the minimum tx fees. People must understand that they have to compete for blockchain inclusion. The sooner the better!
yes I have always failed to understand why it seems to be blasphemous in the bitcoin world to say you should pay for it to work (or pay more for it to work faster for you etc). If I want to send bitcoin to someone i want it to get there reasonably quickly and am prepared to pay more for the time to be shortened. I am old enough to remember when you had a sea mail (overland) and airmail choice at the post office. It worked fine. If people who are running the system that makes the transfer work/secure etc should they not be rewarded?
If there is a consensus? that the poor or some other group needs assistance to offset any costs then that should be done by grant/subsidy to them or some other way. It should not be through the system itself. It just creates secondary issues/problems for all
46.
Post 13554831 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
It's easy as shit to dispute his arguments. He's basically claiming that if the blocks ever fill up, then Bitcoin has failed. Since Bitcoin can't scale to world reserve currency without really fucking big blocks (133MB with lightning network and way higher without it), it's pretty much guaranteed to have full blocks and a fee market no matter what you do. While I do think Bitcoin needs at least 8MB blocks to remove most of the glass ceiling on price, his logic is not sound at all about it succeeding or failing based on blocks being full or not.
That post might impress Bitcoin noobs into thinking there's some type of crisis, but blocks becoming full was always destined to happen from day 1. The real issue is that Lightning Network does not exist TODAY, and so blocks should be raised so that Bitcoin has more room to grow until that happens, assuming Lightning Network is even the solution to all our problems in the first place. The way I see it, a collateral bid, deterministic block production system with something like 1001 fixed block producers is the only low hanging fruit I see to solve decentralization and on-chain scaling at the moment:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1317450.0I am intersted in the bit where he talks about reversing payments. is what he seems to be saying actually true? if the seller of the goods waits for say 4 confirms does that not still protect him. if it is going to be common place for reversals (double spend) then people will always opt for credit cards and the protection they provide and not move to using bitcoin as much?
47.
Post 13565822 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
So, I'm not really all that worried about the hard fork. Seems quite a few people are looking to instill as much panic as possible, and we've just barely dropped to high $300s. It's kind of funny, really.
yes it is not so long ago that "volatility" was a much talked about topic on this thread but the $200-$300 "long" period killed it off. I happen to think manipulators stopped it going down below $200 and so it 'appeared' as though volatility was less. Now that they seem to be happy with a price over $300 they have left bitcoin to ride a lot more and hence when we have a bit of a minor panic like now we will get to a period of 10% or more changes in price in a short time (ie days).. the old normal is back.
48.
Post 13566339 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
according to the figures I see bitcoin is down 9.67%in USD but only 6.76% in CNY. Is such a gap usual?
49.
Post 13567527 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.41h):
Drama queen or not, he had some valid points - not necessary technically, but about the whole deadlock situation and censorship.
People that are censored don't get featured in NYT articles and mentioned in R3 testimony broadcasted by every tv channel, bud!
He was wrong on most of his 'technical' points anyways or they were misinterpretations of the reality. Do not trust that guy, especially not after this. He could have been the inside man all along.
He sold himself to the media as one important (if not the most important) developer. Which is a fucking joke! Yes he did some work but i wouldnt name him in the Top10. Hilarious that he could make such an public impression...
I'm leaning towards making a public list of shame where names such as Hearn and Karpeles would come up with explanations to what they did (possibly even a rating mechanism). They sure deserve it.
any big change in price is not so much due to one person - a hearn or karpeles- or one thing - scaling issues though they be trigger points but simply pumping and then drops. Just 3 months ago the price was $271 and it went to about $450 on no real good news of any sort - that is just pumping .. So inevitably there will be dumping yet where we are now ($366) is still $90 above $271. It could easily now go to say $250 but even then we have just returned to the price 3 months ago ie a $250 price would not be new nor special
50.
Post 13567594 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.41h):
any big change in price is not so much due to one person - a hearn or karpeles- or one thing - scaling issues though they be trigger points but simply pumping and then drops.
This is wrong. Have you not been watching the news? This is spreading everywhere like a wildfire.
[/quote]
hearns views have been known for a long time he has just in this latest outpouring written a much better 'selling' of his views. It does not make them any more right or wrong.
I repeat the price to $450 was pumped and all that hearn and/or crypsy or whatever has dome may have triggered something to stop the pumping get accepted by people . But it is a sell off from a pump so it means nothing longer term for bitcoin.
while bitcoin needs to address a range of issues and some fairly soon far as to the current drop in price goes - as the Police would say ....move along.... nothing to see here
51.
Post 13632876 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.41h):
I get very confused by all the different views of fee growth/block size etc.
It seems to me to be to fairly straightforward in terms of my use of bitcoin.
I have bitcoins for 2 reasons
1. as a store of value
2. to make transfers to other people in other countries and to also make transfers to companies (to buy things).
I like small or no fees but to protect the system and reward those protecting it I am quite happy to pay up to the amount that is just less than an alternative
eg for transfers say what Western Union charges which is say $20
eg for purchases it may also be about $20 (say 1% on purchases over $200)
So being selfish as an individual always is I do not care about the block size just what that result is in terms of effect on me both in terms of security and cost.
I do not think we have to worry about for example millions/billions coming out of China to get around capital controls - the rich in any country will be allowed to do it without bitcoin and make a % cut assisting the middle class to do the same.
We should be making fee and size decisions on the little guy first. he/she is after all an existing not a potential/doubtful user.
What say all?
52.
Post 13655953 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
The more contentious alternatives the better. The HF only triggers at 75% - thats 75% for Classic.
That means that core must now share the remaining 25% with all the other implementations. They will attack each other into oblivion.
Check out the link, comrade. There is no competing over 25% remaining ASICs' with what is being discussed. It is fascinating and encouraging that we shouldn't worry and all be happy despite the outcome. I am at peace with the HF and Classic. Either way, the future is great.
P.S.. 75% of hashing does not equal an economic majority or a majority of users. GPU only mining would bring in many new participants who left for other alts long ago , and casual gamers with good gpus as well .
yes as Andreas said in one of the links posted here there is nothing to really worry about with many players - core, classic, etherum etc - it is just the market coming up with different ways of operating .
It is just that we have had a single market player for so long it seems odd.
interesting that the bitcoin price is not being hit by these new (possible) changes. Not sure that shows they understand them and percieve little risk or that they are waiting for an actual definite outcome before buying/selling. But considering the price reaction to hearn's comments a while back it is odd there is so little movement?
53.
Post 13720811 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
Bitcoin is practical for smaller transactions than are practical with existing payment methods. Small enough to include what you might call the top of the micropayment range. But it doesn't claim to be practical for arbitrarily small micropayments.
Rearranged your bolds for you. Now, what do you consider the
top of the micropayment range and what would be a reasonable fee for that? I frequently use Paypal to buy stuff for $1 and I would consider that well into the "payment" range.
It's problematic for stuff of 1$, unless it goes much different for large merchants who have special deals.
The fees are pretty high:
So if I want to buy an mp3 from an artist, and the artist charges me 0.99$ for it, paypal will take ~0.40$ of it. Paypal becomes the artist's 60-40% partner. So this option is clearly not viable. If you go through bitcoin, the artist can keep like 98-95% of the money.
I think that different models might develop to suit different payment methods. The old fashioned but goodie "subscription' comes to mind. ie if you really like the artist and what to support them why not subscribe for say $30 and get xyz for 'free as part of the subscription. I also do not think the ability to make small/micro payments is what bitcoin is really all about. It might work for some types etc but that is a side benefit and not fundemental
54.
Post 13732065 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
As this block size debate clearly shows: gentlemen don't use Bitcoin.
Of course, no true gentleman would go around discussing things as crass as money in the first place.
Money is crass, taking a look at the low-lifes that showed up around here as soon as bitcoin become worth more than nothing is all the evidence you need.
Bitcoin users are the lowest form of life with their drugs and porn and alpaca socks. True Gentlemen would not associate themselves with such nonsense.
I have experienced drugs and porn but have never owned or worn alpaca socks. Since you used "and" between the three items can I assume 2 out of 3 lets me off the hook ie I remain a gentleman and a bitcoin user. (disclaimer - I have woollen socks from sheep and a 50;50 wool/possum blend but I see alpaca as a bridge too far)
55.
Post 13748008 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
You've been Four Punch Raided, boys and girls.
Google turns up four results for "four punch raid". Wanna ELI5?
as i understand it, it is adapted from boxing.
essentially anyone that wants to make something stop or change direction or punish etc hits the target in a planned and very heavy way and it usually is very effective at getting the outcome they want. just as in boxing if you hit your opponent with 4 consecutive punches in a matter of seconds you will have them in real trouble.
56.
Post 13908878 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.44h):
OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.
"There is general agreement in the Bitcoin community that the system must remain decentralized to prevent the possibility of any company or government controlling the currency."
So we decentralize by putting three quarters of our mines in one government's jurisdiction?
Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?
you are not the only one. I am also concerned. I like bitcoin and its still has many uses (eg buying, transmiting it and the new owner cashing out as the price of bitcoin is effectively irrelevant ) But what it has finished with chinese control is any hope of bitcoin being a store of value. Not sure what that means for more adoption by newcomers but it can only to me mean far fewer and many cureent holders reducing their holdings over time.
57.
Post 14188569 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Its Monday morning here where i live and my mind is at its full power. turning it to g0od use I have created the "penguin" in honour of Adam who cretaed this thread which has been very successful and intersting in so many ways.
penguin is a new system of measurement. It is 1000 pages of thsi topic. So at present "time' is currently 15.163. Time zero was back when the topic was started. Unlike normal time this has a nice up and down feature that reflects bitcoin discussion.(Sort of version of space time)
if there are lots of discussion then we are at a new full penguin faster and vice versa. Currently a penguin is created about evey 100 days on average.
Typical data reporting will therefore be as follows (this are actauls by the way).
At 15 penguin:
Bicoin has grwon from penguin zero penguin by 14.1% compoundedso usign this would make the price of bitcoin at 16 penguin (late May?) $485
Bitcoin has grwon over the last 3 penguins ie 12-15 by 20% compounded. (so 16 penguin price will be $510)
Can we adopt this asap.
I am now going for a nap now until 15.1634 penguin
58.
Post 14263682 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.
I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?
by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.
So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.
However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.
So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take 1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.
So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.
59.
Post 14264267 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.
I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?
by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.
So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.
However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.
So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take 1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.
So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.
Right now someone is buying up*
BTC3600 every single day. Come july only
BTC1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.
*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.
when I buy a bitcoin post halving I am not competing with others to buy the 1800 just minted. I am competing with others in a 15 million bitcoin market. The lessening of supply by 1800 is peanuts and will not move the price.
yes if miners keep their coins they are in effect buying them but at what price? Or rather what price do they wish to sell to pay for electricity etc. I understand alot of minors sell off market to big buyers at much lower prices than the "going' retail bitcoin price.
you are right my 3% is just a guess. But there is no way of being accurate - all i know is the price rise as a result of halving is very very unlikely.
what is your guess for the price in mid july? Post it and we will see who is more accurate then.
60.
Post 14730868 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Guys, to be ultra sure that we in the right track and what happened today is most likely an epic scam, check the amount of the new threads created by a throwaway accounts (NLC accounts) stating that it's game over and such BS.
was not the same basic story run about a year ago ie wright claimed or denied or whatever he was satoshi after someone tracked him down? and that his main concern was that he had tax problems. I recall his "proof" of whatever he claimed being questioned at the time as well. it was i think even covered by this forum topic?
anyhow in the end it all fell away to nothing and bitcoin got on with being bitcoin
61.
Post 15190778 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
I bought another coin at 698$ pretty confident we are going up. and up. and up
I was losing hope last summer, but this year I'm starting to get more confident we are going up. and up. and up. Last summer the best move was to dump when it hit 300 and wait to buy back in lower. This summer each time I expect a retrace it doesn't happen, the price just keeps going up. The best move this summer might be to hold and buy more if you get your hands on some fiat.
there is alot of talk of up and up. it sure is going up and will go up alot more - maybe a new ATH. But it will crash. Are people forgetting that the "harvening" simply means 1800 less bitcoins (potentially) coming onto the market each day.
there were lots to buy before and there will be lots to buy afterwards. So its just a pump around a low key event.
At best I see $400-$450ish within 2 months of the day we "harve". As that is where we are really at. At worst it will be 25% of its high point.
Ensure you are not borrowing to buy bitcoins as then it will really hurt.
62.
Post 15328675 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
I think it should be assumed that for some big miners the cost of electricity is close to zero ie through a range of deals and connections and under the table profit sharing (corruption) they are in reality paying nothing.so the cost to make a bitcoin is more down to the roi on equipment and even then some equipment may be bought using regional or state funding/incentives. My guess the cost produce a bitcoin maybe just $100-$200.
63.
Post 16293384 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
you all ded ?
writing his IRS tax form ...I love it that we seem to use this pic of selma hayek as our de facto logo. I assume it is because we are aiming for the bitcoin adoption rate to match the attention rate she achieves. Or is it just because......................
64.
Post 17335366 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
There's very little hint of FOMO, and not a sign of the 20-30% daily blowoff top that generally happens with a bubble. Which would mean we haven't really started the fun yet.
[/quote]
Going up from $850 to over $950 in a week seems to me to show just the opposite. that is there is lots of FOMO or at least very good manipulation of the price.
65.
Post 17477230 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Maybe this is all Fake News about China and banks... designed to drive down price, buy cheap, and drive price back up by saying China Bank is ok with Bitcoin
the dump was done as the daily candle changed
manipulation
exactly i have not slept past 20 hours. continuous watching of the graphs from all exchangers on different screen. it seems that only huobi graph is manipulating everywhere. this graph used to be the highest now its the source of freefall. its interresting to know how many people are still holding and how many have abandoned the ship. i feel a major part of " i am still hodling" posts are mostly people who have sold and are now praying for a rise. r people who are so stressed that they dont have any nails left to bite.
there is a huge manipulation from huobi. i am guessing like someone pointed out earlier that they are crashing the market so that their activities look " on point" which also means they have manipulated a lot of the pump and dump recently.
the chineese regulation is certainly something to watch but i feel we are in a "bubble bust" once again and this time it will take a lot of time to recover back not even to the ATH but to stable $800 - $900.. forget about crossing $1000. the way the graph is appearing right now does not show a sign of correction and not even something stable for a few days. every 6 to 10 hours there is a $60-100 drop in the price..
all we can do is wait and watch. and all i can say to those who bought higher is to remember that we have seen fall and rise. just hold on your coins and dont panic sell, it will make the market more frenzy and crash more. i am holding 10,000 bitcoins currently, (which i can sign a few 500-1000 btc addresses to prove that i am still holding and not selling or panicking)
its high time we take the market away from the chineese manipulators.
let the revolution begin.
we had gox before which was not Chinese. we know that it is 'wild west' inside most exchnages with fake data, insider use of info etc. So all this is nothing new and it may continue like this for some time.
all you can do is make a guess when the manipulators bump the price as to where it may end up afterwards. we have had bigger % drops before eg when we went from$30 to $2 and $1100 to $250. My bushmans guide is to expect the drop after the pump to be about half of what the drop was last time. since the 2013 drop was about 75% I expect this to be about 40%. that makes it about $660 but in a range of +/- $100.
Eevn if it drops to say $300 for a while buying coins now at about $660 now will soon seem cheap again as the lowest price in any year seems to be about double what it was the year before.
66.
Post 17591324 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
i do expect that the price of bitcoin will trade betweem $850 and $950 for some time,
I don't think so. Too many people want to have at least one bitcoin.
true, and not even every millionaire (denominated in $) could have one. there are more millionaires existing than bitcoin.
I understand your point, but What a silly one, no? At today's prices, as I type, a million dollars could get you about 1,093 bitcoins, but if you have a million to invest, you might need to diversify a little bit, no?
Frequently, I mention to people who might be skeptical about bitcoins, that 1% to 10% of your quasi-liquid investment funds could be reasonable to invest in bitcoin, but if you happen to be fairly skeptical and skittish about today's prices, then maybe you would feel comfortable with only 1% in bitcoin, and all those variations seem reasonable. So, at today's prices, a person who has $1million to invest but is fairly sceptical about bitcoins could still get 10.93 bitcoins... in other words, what seems to be your point, 600watt, those millionaires should act now, while the price is seemingly reasonable in a globally distributed mindset and while supplies last (before everyone else finds out the value of bitcoin).
Sure, but the very rich never want anything until it is seen as valuable to *other* rich people and unattainable to the masses. Hence the reason why they'll wait to buy until a bitcoin is worth $500K.
Two examples: 1) No one wealthy gave a shit about owning one of the original Apple computer boards until they go at auction for $1M
2) No one wealthy gave a shit about owning an original Superman #1 comic until they go at auction for $3.2M
For the super rich, it's all about rarity, subjective (perceived) value, and bragging rights.
For the rest of us, it's just about a meager store of value and perhaps some future investment.
I agree that the wealthy buy things for rarity, bragging rights etc but not sure its going to happen with bitcoin.
First there are potentially 21 million other people that have 1 bitcoin - even in reality if it is say 100,000 it is too many to be seen as rare. Also you cannot really "show off' a string of numbers like you can a physical thing eg first edtion comic book. Finally as the $ value climbs in years to come we may start talking more in terms of 1/1000th of a bitcoin as well as many other levels. Give it a 'sexier' working name than bitcoin eg like "MilleniumCoin" and voila you have a new rarity
67.
Post 17949439 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
Bitstamp fomoing? 1155USD!
Looks like the old ATH can be crashed today already with a bit more of steam.
Kraken also close to create another new ATH.
Exciting day so far.
But I'm not sure about the actual situation.Look at the weekly chart and that massive green candle we see at the moment. There will be some correction coming imo.
this will seem a bit of a downer to many but didn't willybot create the ATH along with many real people jumping in. Since the price finished around $250 after the party then the moment we went past about $400 to me seems we set the new ATH.
the question we should be all asking is what % of the current price do we think is manipulation by a few insiders with large holding or easy access to cash to buy. (A far more agile creature than willy).
I put it about 80% ie at any time i think the price could suddenly be about $300. Never the less I buy slowly at the going price knowing that over time the price will be $5000+ and even if it drops then my buying today at 1155 is ok.
buy and hold and repeat
68.
Post 18129558 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
why is the SEC doing this to us
Would you rather have a denial???
Each day with no decision = WIN!
while the rules clearly allow for them to announce monday afternnon surely the sec has had enough time, devoted enough investigative resource etc that they have made a decision and therefore effective time is close of play Friday.ie they will not need the extra day it affords. so if there is a yes or silence (the same effect?) on friday it will be all go.
69.
Post 18142888 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
that all makes a bunch of sense to me. even if they loved the idea, if they don't have the info to do their job then they're obligated to say no.
the SEC's "reasoning" is more of a lame excuse then anything else.
chinese exchanges are in the process of being regulated
all the major USD exchanges fallow KYC/AML regulations, a lot of them have a "bitlicense"
Gemini itself has a STUPID FUCKING bitlicense.
If there job is to "protect investors" one good way they could have done that is by allowing an ETF.
we expected a fair assessment, and they fucked us.
I think you were expecting way too much.
The SEC like any regulator of anything wants to be able to see what is happening in a market so that bad things can be stopped etc. It is correct in its assessment that bitcoin is still the wild west so it is no surprise it has rejected the ETF. Most of us expected this judging by the comments posted on the forum over the last few months.
Since they seem to reject Gemini as a market (as the report author mentions) then it seems the Winklies ETF may be fundamentally doomed. And as Bitcoin is unlikely to agree to become more regulated anytime soon and since one of the key reasons many people buy it is because they hate centralisation etc. then we should not be expecting anyone's ETF to be approved for a very long time if ever.
70.
Post 18248166 (copy this link) (by pleaseexplainagain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
Finally, back to normal?
not too sure why there is much doom and gloom.
Sure BU is a "threat" but bitcoin has faced many threats before and in the longer run it has weathered them all fairly well.
And as regards the price dropping? hell we were below $500 a year ago and nobody was saying they were going to commit suicide or by alts or whatever. Why so much noise about it dropping to $1000?
Except for a few months around the willybot period if you bought bitcoin over time it has served you well even if we go to say $600 for a while. It will go up again
Bitcoin has a huge number of manipulators in it with powerful armies of both funds and market influence so it will have periods of massive "uncertainty" as those people try to maximise their profits.
the best advice was what they said during the second world war to the british people - Stay calm and carry on
