All posts made by SGExodus in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2400695 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Any predictions for price movement over the weekend?
My prediction for the weekend is Up Up Down Down Left Right Left Right B+A
2.
Post 2402480 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Anyone seeing a trend with these 5 am dumps?
ASICMiner selling... China time zone.
3.
Post 2403217 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
I'm still wondering what the 7.5k btc buy at 1pm CET was all about. I didn't see it when it took place, but I'm pretty sure it was one big order.
Why would a whale buy right into the downtrend? He had a slippage alone of 3 or 4 USD. And why not wait a few hours longer and buy even cheaper.
It's too much volume to be a stabilizing move, in my opinion, but it doesn't make much sense otherwise. I'm puzzled.
There could be many reasons.
If could be that he assessed that the price is already low enough.
It could be someone that sold 7.5KBTC at 140 are re-buying them automatically when the price hits a certain threshold.
4.
Post 2417289 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Unless there are more Pre-Orders for new Mining hardware, such as 32nm ASIC, that accept only BTC in the near future, there will be little demand on bitcoin. The price will slide below $90 by end of next week as ASIC vendors dump their bitcoins to pay their supplier/foundry.
5.
Post 2417340 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Unless there are more Pre-Orders for new Mining hardware, such as 32nm ASIC, that accept only BTC in the near future, there will be little demand on bitcoin. The price will slide below $90 by end of next week as ASIC vendors dump their bitcoins to pay their supplier/foundry.
This person dumping every sunday can take it down all the way to 10 dollars if he continues.
$10 is unlikely. Unless it's Winklevoss twins dumping their 100+k bitcoin in one weekend
6.
Post 2417435 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Maybe a 2 years cycle.. next bubble in 2015, follow by 2017 after the mining reward halve
7.
Post 2417452 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Yes, they are pretty cheap.
A few of us warned people clamouring for "cheap coins" weeks ago that this would happen... people want cheap coins? Well there you go. You have them. Fat lot of good it will do you now.
It's not cheap if you think they will fall till $30 range
8.
Post 2417479 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Not really -- any hopes of recovery up until 2 weeks ago were pretty much ruined by manipulators aiming for "cheaper coins". It removed all steam from the market, and has cheapened the value of bitcoin.
Yeah, it's not the market reacting after a tenfold increase in less than a year.
It's those damn manipulators!
Partly manipulator.
But also contributed by many newcomers that were "forced" to buy bitcoin so that they can participate in ASIC pre-order.
9.
Post 2417538 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Still sliding down fast.. will it hit 90 before Monday?
10.
Post 2418142 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Seeing $90 soon ..
11.
Post 2418165 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
This is great, I get some cheap coins. Only question is do I buy now or wait until tomorrow morning?
If you are lucky, you buy now .. and price rebound to $130..
If you are unlucky, even if you buy at $30.. price will crash till $5.
12.
Post 2418177 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
$90 hit!!. now awaiting $80
13.
Post 2418230 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Wait till the Avalon guys woke up and need to sell theiir 67k coins.
https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU
14.
Post 2418283 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
The Avalon guy was already "up" during this crash. Do you know in what time zone is China in, right?
Don't you know it's 5 days work week for Chinese people these days
15.
Post 2421323 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Lucas, I dont read this thread much but when I do I come in here and read something and its always you making some statement when you have absolutely 0 to back it up. Have you even heard of bitpay? Do you know how much they are processing alone? All the way back in march (before the peak of the bubble even) they were adding thousands of new merchants a month and processing over 5 million in orders... per month.
http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html This is only one payment processor (theres no way to actually gauge the total, but you can be sure its far higher than that when you consider its only one processor among thousands of others.
TLDR. Less typing out of your ass, more reading.As I said, Bitpay figures are largely inflated by Avalon sales. Actual commerce figures from bitcoinstore, Reddit Gold and Humble Bundle show the harsh truth.
What has Bitpay got anything to do with Avalon sales? Avalon sales just accept bitcoin payment directly.. there is no need for bitpay to be in the equation at all.
16.
Post 2428394 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
People are just selling some of those $90 coins for quick profit.
Even the $100 coins is a quick 7% profit now.
The next big dump will resume next weekend lol
17.
Post 2437438 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
I think I got my answer from their faq...
"Wire transfers are currently taking up to 1 week to process due to the volume of withdrawal requests in queue."
Anyone has a personal experience whether this is accurate?
Took me less than 12 hours to move about $15k into my account last week. Initiated the transfer via internet banking around midnight, and receive a notification on the successful fund transfer shortly before noon the next day.
18.
Post 2441730 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Silkroad users need bitcoin to buy stuff, surge in bitcoin demand now
19.
Post 2447832 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
If we are expecting another weekend dump, shouldn't people be selling all their coins now, and re-buy back on Sunday?
20.
Post 2472180 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Having volume today is a very normal market reaction.
If we are expecting that the "manipulator" will make a large dump on Sunday to cause a price fall, then the no-brainer approach will be to sell your coin now, and stock up on your fiat, to buy back on Sunday after the dump.
21.
Post 2473977 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Just look at the Top 20 Richest Wallet Listing (if you have archive that list previously). The list will calm you down. If these wealthy people aren't worry about the recent price fluatuation, neither should you
22.
Post 2474018 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Just look at the Top 20 Richest Wallet Listing (if you have archive that list previously). The list will calm you down. If these wealthy people aren't worry about the recent price fluatuation, neither should you
If I had thousands of coins bought even below 10$ I wouldn't worry too
That's not true. If you have 50,000 coins, and the price drop by $10, it's a $500,000 lost no matter what price you previously purchased at.
23.
Post 2475478 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I wonder how much posts from cypherdoc thread influence the price
As much as Paul the Octopus influenced the result of the world cup matches..
24.
Post 2506230 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Wow, some nice buys coming in. Looks like our buyer got tired of slowly buying.
I think it's the same pool of money waiting to buy bitcoin at sub $90 price, but lost their patient and decide to buy them at higher price now.
25.
Post 2509347 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Will it hit 120 ? Or will it slide back down? lol
26.
Post 2531766 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
The return of the 0.01 BTC bot
27.
Post 2537704 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Some big impatient big buy at $115 .. weird.
28.
Post 2537724 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Some big impatient big buy at $115 .. weird.
Just a whale trying to push us up over the downward trend line.
I think it is more like someone that need to transfer money out of MTGOX quickly are buying all the bitcoins he can, and moving the bitcoin to other US wire friendly exchange instead.
29.
Post 2537790 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Neither do I when you consider no other exchange has any USD liquidity that can absorb a 5000 coin sell off.
But you could at least move the Bitcoin back to your own wallet for now.
Rather than something happens to mtgox, and all the money got frozen in there.
30.
Post 2538715 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.
Move more over and sell and take a short position then. Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.
31.
Post 2538831 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.
Move more over and sell and take a short position then. Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.
The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
32.
Post 2539698 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Big buy going on again.. Need those bitcoin to transfer wealth out of mtgox.
33.
Post 2540657 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Can someone explain to me why, under the certain circumstances, price @MtGox is falling?!?
Same as last week. Some people believes that there will be another big dump on Sunday 5am, hence causing a big drop in price.
So they are selling all their coins now to hold a short position, then buy back those coins on Sunday after a further price drop.
34.
Post 2540710 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Can someone explain to me why, under the certain circumstances, price @MtGox is falling?!?
Same as last week. Some people believes that there will be another big dump on Sunday 5am, hence causing a big drop in price.
So they are selling all their coins now to hold a short position, then buy back those coins on Sunday after a further price drop.
Don't they know about the 2 weeks USD withdrawal issue? Damn speculators they have so much money they do their habit in MtGox...
It doesn't really matter. Most serious speculators will have a significant sum of their money at the exchange so that they can react to the market situation swiftly.
MTGOX is still the exchange with the largest action. You don't want to spend time loading up the wallet when serious action happens.
35.
Post 2555349 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Another boring weekend for BTC.. there are more action at the LTC market now.
36.
Post 2558098 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
What exactly is the definition of "scam" by the moderator in this forum?
How is forking an open source project with a few tweaks makes it a scam? Their entire operation is as open as Bitcoin. They have their own mining community, and they hit the dollar parity quicker than Bitcoin. What exactly did they do to con people into participating in the project to earn them a scam tag?
I didn't see the moderator calling Ripple a scam, despite all the lies on their website/wiki? I didn't see the moderator call BFL and Avalon scam? For lying about shipment date, and mining with customer equipment?
Why the double standard?
Having LTC on GOX is a great thing for the community as a whole. It allows for more arbitrage opportunity between the exchanges by eliminating the need to move fiat currencies around --- which means international wire delays will be a thing of the past.
37.
Post 2585881 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
I see an artificial raise to $105 this morning, plus a scary depth for Gox standards:
BTC43.25k to $120, the same amount to $85.
BTC17k to $110, the same amount to $96
Seems like Some groups (silkroad?) just want bitcoin price to fluctuate within a very tight range.
38.
Post 2800055 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Bring Ripple discussion elsewhere. If it is really good, it will emerge as winner. Time will tell.
39.
Post 2820115 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
It was always some Sunday dumped... nice to see a reversal here where people mass buy on Sunday.
40.
Post 2836041 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
MtGox-Bitstamp spread keeps widening. First, 5% was normal, then 8% and now it seems to be 10%.
MtGox has created a perpetuum mobile to give us infinite mtgoxUSD!
I have done a fair sum of arbitrage trade between bitstamp -> mtgox last few weeks.. Now I am patiently waiting to withdraw my mtgoxUSD.
41.
Post 2838245 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
2000 coins arrived from other exchanges appended to the Ask Wall...
42.
Post 2930632 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
10k more coins to $120...
43.
Post 2938385 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
What I don't get about this whole story is how this is profitable.
He bought ~8000 coins on the way from $113 to $115 and almost 2k of them for $115.
During this time ~6000 coins got sold, alot of them in his walls for ~$113.
So let's just say he ended up with ~10000 coins for an average price of $114.
Today someone pushed us back down to $110.5, now we're at $111.
So right now he lost about $30000...
Am I missing something?
How silly can you get to think that all these transactions are done by the same person?
44.
Post 2957207 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Doesn't seems to have enough bid to hit $115 in the next few hours.
45.
Post 2961544 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Only 48k coins left on the Ask book on gox according to clarkmoody?
Lots of panic buying to move wealth out of the place...
46.
Post 2962358 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.
I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.
Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.
47.
Post 2991338 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Double whammy for gox: less than 50% of the market and equal to Bitstamp today
where is that screenshot from? I like the total
It was the trade volumes of the exchanges for the last 24 hours, most bitcoin charts have the info.
48.
Post 2991367 (copy this link) (by SGExodus) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Indicators scream "down" ATM, this should be definitely a spot to be in fiat.
Nevertheless, this is Bitcoin - are the whales that have been regularly buying between BTC1,000 and BTC2,000 the last few days finished their buying? Are they waiting for the ask side to build and the spot price to go down, as its happening right now, before the next buys?
Really, trading in this market ATM is pure gambling.
There is very little gamble if you buy from bitstamp and sell on gox -- which is shown by the high trade volume from bitstamp now.
The order book of bitstamp stayed quite constant with about 1.2m on bid and 19k coins on ask. This shows that the big traders still aren't comfortable keeping large amount on this exchange.
On gox, the bid side only has about 13 mil left, indicating that some whales did indeed panic sell and left the exhchange for now.
On ask side, it is back to 70k coins, was only 55k few days ago. Some of these coins must be from the arbitrage traders.
I think the trade volume will slow down once the spread between them is less than 7%...