Pais is exploiting quantum resonance. This is a concept I was theorizing about in the early 1990s.

Think of two tuning forks tuned to the same frequency. Strike one and the other hums at a distance, but nothing else in the environment does. It’s roughly analogous to a beeline through the ether.

I guess it’s possible that the current poll could possibly be a contrarian indicator given that most are very bullish, possibly too soon. Where’s the widespread FOMO action to back up your (premature?) bullishness. These forums feel almost dead, although that might also be a bullish contrarian indicator. Some of my scenarios have always had BTC crashing into August, before rising again before the halving in May 2020. However I also had scenarios where this rogue wave would move much higher before crashing, such as $20k or even as high as $78k.

Yet in no case do I expect BTC to drop below $4k now. And I expect BTC to move to at least a double-top of $20k (if not much higher) before or by the halving May 2020, because Craig Wright will need for the difficulty to be very high so he can drive the Core shitcoin fork chain to a near standstill if he craters the hashrate with the donations taking incentive. He might be bluffing though.

So there is a scenario where @Husain_Zabir is perhaps closer to correct than most of you currently think. His thesis fits my Rogue Wave thesis (where I had precisely predicted the possibly temporary top and pullback we’re experiencing), but I will explain that @Husain_Zabir’s A and B price levels are probably too low and his C bottom target is probably too high. Also the Rogue Wave could possibly top as high as $78k. The low (presumably BTC not $) volume on @HairyMaclairy’s chart seems to indicate this current move is not complete.

Yet let’s revisit @infofront’s stock-to-flows valuation chart hypothesis which was based on my speculation fractal modeling. I have added some black lines to his chart and also drawn in green the progression of the BTC price up to July. I have also extrapolated in green-to-blue a scenario hypothesis on the price from now to the May 2020 halving:



Also my annotated chart of the BTC price below indicates that this pullback has support at $10k, $8k, $6k and worst case $4k. Also note for the chart above that a ratio of 1 is $6250 until the halving.



Note as an alternative scenario that the pattern developing now (when zoomed in on my chart above), so far resembles the pattern in May. So if repeating the May scenario, it is possible to reach $15k before declining again to $11k, then blasting off again to perhaps at least double-top at $20+k soon or perhaps in Q4. The top of this posited Rogue Wave move may not be complete yet.

Thus my speculative hypothesis has been BTC would pullback to $10k, $8k, $6k, or worst case $4k before rising again to at least roughly at double-top before the May 2020 halving. The double-top scenario would be the typical pattern that everyone expects. Thus A pullback will be at the lowest $4k on @Husain_Zabir’s chart but possibly not that low. And the B[/tt] could be at least $15+k, not the $6500 on @Husain_Zabir’s chart. Or equivalently that the A level has not yet been attained.

However instead of the usual scenario after the halving, I expect a divergence between the Core BitcOn-job and the real “v0.1”, immutable Bitcoin (i.e. not BCH nor BSV). I expect Core shitcoins to crash to Martin Armstrong’s $775 prediction, whilst real Bitcoin will appreciate under the radar to $1+ million until it is eventually used to back Facebook’s Libra after the strong U.S. dollar vortex.

Unfortunately not. Well the legacy Bitcoin will, but we will likely be stripped of our ability to cash out of it. Legacy Bitcoin will only be legal to cash out for those are loyal to the globalist, bankster bastards.

You guys ostensibly don’t understand what is really going on in terms of the Big Picture:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5157901.msg52251343#msg52251343

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5147618.msg52247973#msg52247973
(read also my follow-up post, where I make a price and timing prediction from now to May 2020)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5157964.0

The May 2020 halving event is likely when the diehard Bitcoin maximalists get (according to one Goldman former Treasury official) “their fingertips burned up to their armpits” aka fleeced. After a nosebleed ATH before the halving, Core Bitcoin may crash to below $1000 and the blockchain may slow to one block per week.

Again note I am not a BSV-shill. BSV is likely a decoy employed by Craig to obscure that he is really reinstating legacy, immutable Bitcoin.

Definetly not the safest or the best way to trip, and i'm pretty sure that the above posted quantity would suffice for many lethal doses.

If you really, really want to trip and don't have access to any better psychedelic you can try to extract the much safer and better LSA from many plant sources (google it), but really dude....stay safe, this things can kill you. And some other things (like datura) can get you really mad. Plants are dangerous, they are not "safe" because natural, only less pure.

Unforgeable costliness and the lack of a sunk cost fallacy in the longest (aka greatest cumulative difficulty) proof-of-work chain, is due to the Nash equilibrium game theory that incentivizes everyone to continue mining and transacting on the legacy, immutable original. This theory has been falsified numerous times with every hard fork of Bitcoin being sold off.^[1]

The decentralized Nash equilibrium exists because the utility of Bitcoin is greater than any extant decentralized alternative (e.g. gold). Thus there’s no Schelling point to reach for alternative forks which have less consensus and thus less utility. Other examples of cryptocurrency utility which gold lacks, include the ability to be transported instantly as information and the fact that the tangible mass of Bitcoin (which is all the mining hardware) is disconnected from the intangible store of the transportable asset. Note the theoretical ideal proof-of-work is 100% efficient and thus burns no electricity (as heat) and burns only the depreciation of the hardware. Proof-of-work is an epochal technological shift which will transform human civilization. Proof-of-stake does not burn a tangible resource, so thus has no unforgeable costliness in which to base a Nash equilibrium.

The properties of gold which give it utility that older forms of money and later which fiat money lack, have thus historically been a Nash equilibrium, because there was no Schelling point to reach for metals with inferior properties, except that gold was too rare to be used as the transactional currency which gave rise to silver as a medium-of-exchange (aka the poor man’s money). Yet gold was in tension with social scalability (e.g. the soon-to-be, deprecated need for debt financing in the former fixed capital age) and thus the Nash equilibrium for gold could not prevent the rise of fiat money which was an imperfect yet more socially scalable form of money.

The huge problem for gold now is that proof-of-work replaces virtually all its utility while adding superior utility.


The only remaining utility for gold is the illogical and unjustified fear that decentralized mining can be disrupted or the possibly justified fear that mining can be monopolized. If the latter technological problem is justified and can be solved, a Bitcoin killer may still be on the horizon. However bear in mind social scalability. It may be the case that the illusion of decentralization combined with the lack of extremely potent anonymity technology, may be more socially scalable than some other ideal.

My belief is that the historical bifurcation of the world into gold versus fiat money will be replicated with a bifurcation of Bitcoin (as the reserve asset backing the new monetary system which may include Libra as a global 666 transaction coin) versus an underground, dark web, completely anonymous more provably decentralized proof-of-work altcoin. Note how my perspective differs from the one held by those who incorrectly (c.f. also) believe HTLCs such as Lightning Networks will be the transactional system.

Litecoin has unforgeable costliness only if it provides sufficiently unique and compelling utility that Bitcoin and other altcoins lack. The confusion over whether it does or will, is why altcoins have had some value over the short-term, but just look at their charts paired against BTC and it is clear they are losing leverage over time (i.e. the illusion of their utility is dying). Significant deadcat rallies in leverage relative to BTC are likely along the way to their eventual death (with one such rally already underway with GRS/BTC as I predicted in my private discussion group and likely LTC/BTC preparing to launch also).

^[1] Btw, this is why Bitcoin Core (aka omnibus SegWit at al mutations of Satoshi’s protocol since Satoshi exited the crime scene) is an impostor “soft fork” and will be eventually destroyed when a hard fork (aka fuck-off) is forced (and I believe probably at the May 2020 halving) by a SegWit protocol violation that enforces said unforgeable costliness to protect the said Nash equilibrium which gives Bitcoin its durable value.