Yes and we have the makings of a 3rd straight day of higher prices on progressively lower volume. This happened last week on the 9-11 (no pun) and we wen't down afterwards. It is a tell tale downward formation (if it holds)...

Agreed, it is tough to stay out of this market, but doing so reluctantly.
ps - I almost did what you did at 100 (but held back :-(  )

+1

[On Bitstamp prices...]

It's looking like a triple top - three failed attempts to get over the 108 bar, with retraces back to 102 each time. I doubt we will see a forth.

However... the last retrace only touched 102, with a sharp bounce back. This starts looking a bit like a rising triangle, which is bullish. From this perspective, getting over 108 is a smaller leap.

There is a good deal of resistance over 108 though, which would need a lot of buying power to punch through. Therefore, I'm about 85% bearish for the trend for the next few days. I have orders in around 101 and 91 to catch the retrace back to the 18th or profit from another 10% fall beyond this.



P.S. I bought at 99 and sold at 107 since the 18th. I missed the first spike (sell price too high - by 0.5 BTC annoyingly!) and then just missed last night's dip (buy was at 101, and only 102 was reached). You can't win them all though!

Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star? 

Predictions from this fellas?

Ahhh, I didn't realize there was a fuller chart available - Thx.

Be really really careful with your placements. You might very well make a profit but if the volume there is so low that it will slice through and won't bounce off the bottom till it hits resistance (which may be at $60 - $70). Looking at the chart last weekend I came up with these key support levels: $90, $82, $60, low $50's and possibly 20's. Nothing really new with my numbers but I did verify some of the patterns with the past bubble correction.

Can we put up some more insane walls? Because no matter what happens we need to make sure Bitcoin won't go up and make us money. That would just be bad!

Yes, approx. 91 and 81 are my immediate goals. I suspect there will be bounces to profit off these resistance points. I would expect to buy in again lower should the price permit.

Well, I was about right for this phase. Unfortunately, I wimped out at 98 just before the drop, as an insurance against it going up! I should have stuck!

Still, I made a good BTC profit regardless and bought the other half at 91. I'm hoping to sell on a bounce up to the high 80s, then buy back at the low 80s. I'm hoping to gain a few more BTC in the process and claw back some USD losses.


EDIT: P.S. Unfortunately, I was away during the weekend and couldn't trade it out. Ofc, the last few weekends it was dead... when I was free to trade!

Bitstamp is taking a bit of a nosedive ... back to $72

@ IAS - Yes yoda just told me to trim my position a bit and go sit in the sun - sometimes you have to make a small sacrifice to get what you want !

@ Ultraviolet - I hear you, and would certainly not be going long here, but the risk of spike to $xx before we break $70 is ... apparently decreasing as I write ! I was going to say, quite significant lol

You can thank me for buying back a bit of my short  

69.9. 

Actually, I did close my short.

We dropped almost 40% without any major rebound.

Edit:

What a lovely metaphor!

I bought back in at 65 (Bitstamp). 63-64 has been tested 3 times and has held. My guess is that the price will rally for a while now.

If only I had done the same. Funny, your numbers matched mine...

Thanks for sharing your observations with selling pressure as I haven't been watching much. I have seen the larger blocks in buys stagnate though.

And look at this double double reverse bottom descending triangle. What do you all think? 

These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

i should've bought more

Will 90 fall tonight?

Yesterday taught me just *how* pathetic my attempts at reading the Bitcoin market are, and *how* irrelevant both TA & common sense are to this market.
Trying a new strategy today.  Got me some black candles burning on both sides of the monitor, crayons for drawing pentagrams & magikal symbolz, got The Lord's Prayer queued up to loop backwards in Pro Tools.  As soon as my cat learns to arch his back & hiss at the chart, i'll be set for a new day of trading

I sold at around ~75 coming back up, but I haven't bought back in.... Yet.

I like my support/resistance lines on the body of the candles, not wicks. We are sitting below 2 resistance lines if that is the case. Interesting to think we might have broken out of a descending triangle, but down and now come back up to meet it. Updated - And look at the negative volume divergences (2) with an up price. That had been a good reversal indicator, but not lately. Also, topping out on RSI.

hihgher highs, higher lows. shortterm uptrend. let's see for how long... 105 should be interesting

By zooming out, you lose clarity. Just like letters can fog up and look like other letters, when looked at from a distance.

I picked up a few coins today, sort of as insurance in case we run but also as I just hate not having any Bitcoins, yes, outside of 1 Casascius, I didn't have any! Sitting in pure fiat was too much for me. It is a pretty conflicting state to be in, loving BTC but not liking the current market/price/etc. All or nothing is probably not the smartest anyway. Enough self justification? 

That said, what I noticed today was some VERY big buyers being unable to manipulate the price any higher. I say manipulate as the slippage was just too much. They were bad businessmen (unless they get a rally started). Probably the same "bad buyer" that stopped a crash below 100 on a Sunday weeks ago. Probably the same guys buying all the way up recently. It really looks like resistance at 100 and a little bit beyond is just too much.

On the one hand (me being a HUGE BTC BULL) it was funny to hear crickets after that 5000+ BTC order went through. It felt good to be calm. I thought "It just isn't working anymore. How are they going to unload? How deep are there pockets?"
On the other hand, you never know when the public at large buys into the rally. From sentiment on the TA boards/threads, it seems like people want to see us hold over 100 and perhaps even get past 107 or the like. Well, that is going to take a lot more buying than we saw today.

And remember, for all those whale buyers we've seen lately, don't forget those whale sellers from before the recent rally.

I agree, everything thing I have is screaming upward, that this is only just the beginning.

The short term chart does look like there may be a break out. There is a rising triangle, which is pretty bullish.

I'm still not convinced that the breakout will last, but I've bought a chunk of BTC again and may sell into the breakout, should it occur.

[It is also painful not holding much BTC. Holding so much fiat feels... dirty!]

The  2011 bear market was not caused by the bubble pop. I was there, the situation today is profoundly different, you'll have to take my word for it I do not have the time to go in to detail.

Its going up to 180 before we see any dumps worth talking about, I have no doubt.

Quietly sitting on the 100 day EMA after rebounding on the 200 day EMA.

It feels like the quite before the storm. Not so many negative signs as before the bounce, that bounce was on relatively high volume and there's still people willing to buy. I wonder how much is the withdrawal problem affecting the price - I'd say quite a lot.

...

And they will be met with buys.

The charts were telling everything. 

So....

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

Looking at a 60 day chart (in reference to previous charts), it looks very much like we've just passed the peak of this cycle. I suspect momentum will gather for downward price pressure from here.

When will people realize that we had very good news for the last weeks, but still the price goes down because price is driven by price action itself?

Isn't it bullish that some company pays the equivalent of +$10M for a Bitcoin gambling site? Also, as the buyout is done in Bitcoin, won't this result in buying pressure? (or is the buyout amount secured already?)

if the trend reversed already then it may not be lower than $80

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.

Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.

The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

Don't get me wrong ... there *ought* to come a time when nobody wants dollars. But when that will be is anyone's guess. TPTB will do everything they can to prop up the house of cards for as long as possible.
For the last ten years Japanese Gov Bonds have traded at ridiculously low yields ( = high price) and many have tried to call the turn and short them, seeing the situation as unsustainable (which it is ultimately). The trade has become known as 'The Widow Maker' due to the number of people who have crashed and burnt trying to call the turn.
Unrealistic and unsustainable valuations can last for a very long time, defying all logic and fundamental analysis.

That said, the moment of truth would appear to be approaching IMO ... just don't bet the house quite yet 

If your libertarian romantic ever plays out I rather think we are facing the extinction of the human race.  

Institutional violence is just a result of urbanization, the entire population is urbanized, and dependent of the financial system to keep them from dying from starvation.

IF you are serious start a farm.

That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

...



as you can see, their wasnt very much $ volume on the way up
But their is a FUCK load on $$ volume on the way down.
I would expect to see volume lvl off for a while, bitcoin gets kinda boarding
then a year later, bitcoin its 3 times the size it is today  

ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early

the volume  we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!    bitcoin

:-)

It's also why the $10K valuations aren't as ridiculous as they sound -- try plugging in, say, 10% of visa volume into the equation :-) Of course we have a Tx limit to deal with first though...

My missus (economist) was initially convinced BTC would fail simply because there aren't enough of them... 

i don't get why it's okay to sell a speculative item like say, a trading card or an online game item, but selling a bitcoin is so drastically different?

i suppose you have a lot more volume when working with bitcoins

I'm wondering where some of you are getting the idea that the trend is about to reverse. Because of the 5 USD retracement we just saw? Or maybe I'm missing something that the candle watchers can see but I cannot.

The way I see it, it's not entirely clear if, in the short term (24-48h) we'll continue to go up or will stabilize at this level, but I see very little indication that we're going down right now.

The volume trend line isn't nearly as linear as that. Head and shoulders may confirm but I think we bounce at 103-104. 

Not being snarky, but honestly wondering: That H+S pattern didn't materialize, right? Or is there something like a double right shoulder?!

you couldn't resist telling us about your profit huh? 

@prof7bit

I guess you're asking Traktion, since he suggested the pattern, but even though I didn't agree with him, your "find in less than 2 minutes" criterion is a bit unfair. Depending on how well trained you are, it could take you 30 seconds or 20 minutes to find a pattern, irrespective of whether it is really there or not.

When Traktion first posted, he also had a 15 min view. I'm not experienced in determining candlestick patterns, but I *could* see how (on the 15 min view) a left shoulder and a head had materialized, and a right shoulder was possibly forming.

I mainly disagreed because of the volume acting atypical.

Triple top forming since the first started at the end of July? Third peak on falling volume. Thoughts?

This is hilarious. Look at the book.

We don't need an 11k whale buy and 2k wall (like what took us from 94 to triple digits). Half that will do.

We're primed for a major surge up. The whale buyers have been quiet for a couple of days. They have very strong motivation to put the push on soon.

While a 6k injection of fiat would be sufficient, a 10k buy and a 3k bidwall (same outlay as the move from 94) would really smarten up the market and secure previous acquisitions for those who pushed us past 88, 95, 100, 110, etc.

Yee-haw, pass the popcorn.

So it's a run on Gox then ...

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.

Yeah, the price movement is on Gox (and originates there). Look at this last movement. Nothing happened on Stamp for a while, then suddenly a $4 movement and then it backed off.

I am also really worried about Gox. It might end up being nothing, but how long ago did that 2 week freeze on wiring money end? About 2 months ago or so? And it was only supposed to take a few weeks to get back to speed (backlog as Gox said). Now - NO WORD, zero...

Try making trades of +300 coins at Bitstamp without MAYOR slippage and then report back please...

Even on Gox, the slippage is a huge profit killer for traders - on Bitstamp is just impossible to daytrade for anyone with a little more than play money.

IMO the bull party is over. What can be seen in the charts is the topmost Elliot sub-wave, with it's 5 sub-sub-waves, although the last one is about to begin,
and may be ill defined. I am certain that a correction is coming, dropping the price to the 112 - 114 range, followed by a (slow?) rebound to maybe 117 - 118.
The uber-bulls are going to interpret this as a bear trap, but I believe it will be the prelude to more drops, after a couple of days.