All posts made by drays in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 31449302 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.46h):
I find one of his recent posts has an interesting anti-altcoin twist.
Masterluk has always been an altcoin-antagonist. Basically - he neglects alts like all the Bitcoin maximalists do. I am periodically reading his blog lately, and his attitude to Ethereum (as well as to all other alts) is rather disparaging. His main point (though not the only one) is - only Bitcoin is really decentralized and secure.
Well, thats his point of view. It has some merit. I won't completely agree, and am sure some of the alts have a lot to offer, especially the ones which experiment with blockchain, and are not supposed to become just a currency - but we all are entitled to our opinions. Masterluk is a pretty smart, educated person and has great sence of humour too. Reading his blog one can get the most important thing at this time - the peace of mind. But if you don't know Russian - some of his sentences would be absolutely impossible to understand

P.S.Wow, looks like I finally did my first post in WO thread

. Won't do much more, as my poor English doesn't let me feel fit here...
2.
Post 31452153 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.46h):
I hate hard drives...fickle, delicate beasts
No freaking kidding. HDDs are obsolete relics from the
20th century second millennium.
It's time to move on from moving-parts contraptions. glass-bulb technologies and other fragile inefficient garbage.
I've been using SSDs since the days of IDE (PATA) and have never had an SSD fail.
I originally got into SSDs for performance (used HDDs in RAID-0 and RAID-5 before that), backing up to HDDs. It was the HDDs that actually failed. I was mainly seeking fast writes and reads. The extremely lower failure rate of SSDs was just a bonus.
What's the longest time you have used an SSD for? I thought they were supposed to wear out faster than HDDs.
I'm pushing 5 years on my oldest one, and it has been flawless. Pretty sure I've never had a HDD last that long, or even close. My newest NVMe Pro is ridiculously fast. Friends don't let friends HDD

As to me, 5 years of flawless work is too little to claim SSDs are superiour in reliability. Most HDDs i was using (almost all, in fact) lasted more than 10 years, and just went retired due to upgrading the PC... On laptops HDDs seem to die much sooner than on desktops though.
Not sure why people in the West think no-moving-part is a synonim to reliability. Might come down to marketing hype... For example, nowadays SSDs can be good, but MMC flash storages used in many tablets, phones and SBCs, are dieing very fast if you write a lot. I had to move from MMC to HDD for my OrangePi (Raspberri-like device), so it could sustain constant writing load due to coin nodes I was running.
P.S. You told me the posting practice is the key, so I am practicing now
May attach train picture here if I find one...
3.
Post 31821863 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
For people to finally learn that price predictions are pure fine grade BS.
Or to not make investment decisions based on advice from random guys on a forum.
Take your pick

Is McAfee a random guy?
If price predictions are BS, what is the purpose of this board?
This board is fun to read, a lot of different kind of information can be obtained here, plenty of very interesting topics, often not closely related to Bitcoin - analytics, retrospective views, news, opinions, old news which you never were aware about at the time, lots of other stuff.
At the very least, this thread is good to read to improve English skills, which suffer a lot while reading some other topics of this same forum

Indeed I started to read this board to get price predictions, but then realized the predictions are the least interesting (and the least reliable too!!) part of discussions here

. The rest is much more valuable.
Keep this up, guys!
P.S. And McAffee is indeed a random guy, btw. Doesn't seem trustworthy to me, honestly.
4.
Post 32029473 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
Im probably leaving the market within a week in my final distribution. AMA
Is this humour?
if yes - haha
if no - why leave?
Its 10 time less profitable to trade in these kinds of conditions so its an optimal time to reduce the risk of holding funds on exchanges and take a break from the immense stress, risk, and sleep disruption of trading. Also I am now financially set for 2 decades and have chronic illness. If I decide to go after money again and may be via a business or software project like making a new coin or an exchange and possibly not via trading.
As far as you said AMA, I am really curious of your MBTI personality type. Are you INTJ or INTP (my guess)? Or something else? Is just for my curiousity, you seem to be quite an interesting person.
5.
Post 32101153 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
As far as you said AMA, I am really curious of your MBTI personality type. Are you INTJ or INTP (my guess)? Or something else? Is just for my curiousity, you seem to be quite an interesting person.
INTJ
Nice to see a fellow INTJ here, and glad to see my guess was pretty correct... Woman INTJ is a really rare beast, frankly speaking, I have never seen even a single one in person during my whole life...
Ignoring ones health in favour of an interesting (or important) stuff is another "trademark" of INTJ, unfortunately. I've also got a chronic pain, due to the same behaviour - sinking into the sea of information and forgetting to sleep/eat/drink. Its not actually due to Bitcoin trading, but rather due to being overly analytical "info-holic". Sometimes I think computers are as dangerous for our type of people, as casinos for game addicts, and spirits for alcoholics.
6.
Post 32944244 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Yup, there is always somebody like that

This time its me

As there are so many professional traders here (who apparently understand much more than me), and as far as there was a talk regarding the similarity of current bubble to 2013-2014 one, I would like to ask if anyone thinks this my assumption from one month ago makes any sense:
Interesting... If we take the pattern of the 2013-2014 bubble (for example from here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/cryptohodlor/status/958352479934017539/photo/1) and just plainly apply it on current one, we can notice up to now everything seems extremely similar. Even the bounce levels are exactly the same, we just need to make two adjustments:
1. The price on the old chart has to be multiplied by around x18 (the total peak of 1.1K becomes 20K, the first bounce start of 330 becomes 6K, the bounce peak of 670 becomes 12K etc)
2. The time scale needs to be adjusted by around x3 (things now seem to change 3x faster)
With those adjustments to the old chart we get exactly what we have now in 2018.
If this analogy is correct, the absolute bottom of this beginning bear market will be around 3.8-4K, it will be reached in around 4 months from the peak (somewhere in April), and the overall length of bear market would be around 8 months (rising back somewhere in August?).
When I posted this about one month ago, we were out of 6K lows, but didn't reach the 12K top yet. I was actually surprised to see it was quite precise. Does anyone think such scenario (especially the time schedule) sounds realistic?
BTW, if this analogy/prediction is correct, we will witness a big sell-off very soon - starting maybe in about 5-15 days - first to about 7.2K, then to under 5.4K one-two weeks later, before having a temporary bounce to almost the current levels

. I'm not happy to tell that, but well, if it indeed follows the old graph, things will be good longterm, and thats the most important.
P.S.Excuse my English, once again

7.
Post 33253545 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
That sounds like the time I stared at my bunghole in the mirror.
I've been considering installing a Gopro in my toilet bowl as there are some very strange things going on down there, down there on me, not the toilet itself. I might wait for 8K though just to really pinpoint the exact problem.
Heh, just noticed "Gopro" sounds almost exactly like "copro"...

After reading your post I wonder if its just a coincidence??
Amazing to see the diversity of topics inspired by crypto, and specially by the current market movements...

8.
Post 43910897 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
$250 move-up in 3 minutes.

I often notice the following pattern in the Bitcoin price: it's quite stable for hours to days, moving sideways, then suddenly it drops or shoots up in a more or less straight line. After that, it continues moving sideways.
How can that be? I can only think its being manipulated by some whale(s) keepingt he price stable until they need change. If there's a different explanation, I'd like to hear it.
Yep, quite distinctive pattern. It seems to be happening in this year's bear market mostly, I didn't notice it showing before.
whales this, whales that...meh
it's just the market
Exactly, more than likely just market buys and sells, probably on behalf of clients.
[...] How can that be?
Some sell and buy a lot more than others. Even when they use multiple exchanges, it does move the price quite a bit. Exchanges (thankfully) also run 24/7 but at some times of the day or days of the week the liquidity is less than ideal. Manipulation depend on what rules you follow. I do reasonably thrust (but never used) exchanges, as in not allowing buy orders without pony up the fiat and not allowing sell orders without having the coins, and also executing order books in the order of bid/ask price.
Also, there is always a bigger fish, so trying to manipulate the price when you think you are big may backfire when it turns out you are not.
If this is normal market behavior caused by bigger buys and sells, then this same behavior should be seen on other markets like stock markets or forex, right? Are there similar patterns visible? I am just asking genuine question, as I did not examine other assets' markets...
9.
Post 43939779 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.
But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of
mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?
P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.
10.
Post 43941252 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
There's doesn't need to be "mass panic". That's not a necessary requirement to determine whether the bottom has happened.
Mass panic selloff - despair - indifference - the time of low interest by general public, and active work by the core supporters -- then natural growth from inside, caused by the persistent work of real value creators, such as developers, adopters and promoters.
I believe before BTC can grow again, there should be new achievements to show, and more healthy community caring about fundamentals, not just price.
This is how I see normal way of resolving the consequences of the latest bubble.
I wonder how do you see the possible path? Do you really think BTC is ready for another rally in this situation now? Or you think it can go sideways long enough so new development matures and adoption kicks in?
11.
Post 43942512 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
Wow, so insightful, exactly what a lot of people have been saying
I feel your sarcasm

Good point though. So if lot of people are saying that, is it necessarily false?

12.
Post 46327046 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
You just reminded me of terabear. What happened to him/her and all of our beartrolls?
Terabera was a she, but in the latest months of her activity, she was trying to act as if she was a he, for some strange reason. Some peeps here had suggested that her account got bought out, but I don't buy that theory because it seems that her personality and posting style was otherwise the same, except that she began to act as if she were a he instead of a she.
Regarding her disappearance I have two speculations, and I will list them in order of which one I believe to be more compelling.
1) Terabera had a very similar disappearance during the 2015 bear market, and perhaps in that sense, her pay period was done, if you believe that she was a kind of paid shill, or she concluded that she could not be as profitable as a trader when the market devolved into a certain low level of volatility, if you actually believe that she was a trader.
2) in the latest months of her activity, she disclosed that she was experiencing health issues, something like lime disease, so perhaps her health is continuing to suffer and participating in the forum exacerbates her condition. I don't really believe this second possible explanation is very convincing because any kind of sickness would allow for more internet participation because it would force sedateness, but if a person is forced to earn an income too, then a sickness might cause a person to have to focus more on money earning activities and to remove forum participation based on its distractive nature.
Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would express neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.
I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not subjectively bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.
I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).
13.
Post 46360289 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would express neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.
I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not subjectively bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.
I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).
Does that mean that she was being contrary for the mere sake of being contrary? That is both annoying and troll-like behavior, no? I understand that some people might find that interesting, but it seems that if you find it interesting, you are merely wanting to get entertained by the stirring of shit, rather than attempting to engage in meaningful battles of information and conclusions based on facts and logic rather than just picking out some random and inimportant contrarian point?
Anyhow, she seemed more like a troll and a shit stirrer rather than someone who might be well-intentioned and attempting to make meaningful contributions to dialectical discourse... as you seem to suggest her intentions to be good or at least the ends justify the means, perhaps?
Well, probably I was not expressing myself well enough - my English is still far from being good and definitely cannot be compared to yours.
When I told "with contrarian approach to everything", I meant more of an "independent and original approach to everything". Being independent thinker and picky/critical at the same time, very often means to become contrarian, and so stand against the crowd. Many people hate them. Contrarians add new viewpoint to discussion, sometimes just to play, but often to help, as group will be able to see things from multiple viewpoints and get better understanding of the complex topic. However this could be annoying to some people, especially those who prefer "being right" to "being more informed" - so called "soldier"-type of person.
And, truly saying, I do not see any connection between being contrarian and "stirring of shit". If you are discussing/investigating
shit, then yes, it would be useful to stir it, so you feel the smell better and so get better feel of the subject heh.. But if you are discussing another (non-shit) topic, contrarian often provides arguments and new information (including facts and logical conclusions) to defend his/her views. This is how I see Tera and her input. She was nothing like a troll. More of like a highly intelligent and educated person (woman), who was often bashed for having different opinion.
Whatever. People are different, have different values and appreciate different things. I for one, prefer new ideas, information and discussion to food pictures and and memes. But I understand others have different preferences. That's normal

14.
Post 46365683 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.
Note the actual BTC and USD prices on the tag

. I don't know when the picture was taken, but if it was this year, then well... with this kind of conversion rate the seller has nothing to lose!
From another hand, lets put it this way - it is crazy to actually post prices in USD, with USD price changing a lot and likely to change a lot, relative to real value in BTC.

15.
Post 48027242 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.13h):
1500 is still a high amount considering where bitcoin started from and how many people got in under $10.
So... ok... how many? Do you know the number, and where did you get it from?
I really doubt there is any considerable number of such people now, as there were so many temptations to sell them in the way to $100, $1000, $10000 and so on.
No, seriously, this is an interesting question: does anyone here know somebody who got their bitcoins under $10 and still holds them?
Or may be better way to ask the same -
do you know anybody who spent less than $10 per Bitcoin they own currently?
There are many oldtimers in this thread, so I assume this is a one of the best places to ask this question.
16.
Post 48028944 (copy this link) (by drays) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.13h):
1500 is still a high amount considering where bitcoin started from and how many people got in under $10.
So... ok... how many? Do you know the number, and where did you get it from?
I really doubt there is any considerable number of such people now, as there were so many temptations to sell them in the way to $100, $1000, $10000 and so on.
No, seriously, this is an interesting question: does anyone here know somebody who got their bitcoins under $10 and still holds them?
Or may be better way to ask the same -
do you know anybody who spent less that $10 per Bitcoin they own currently?
There are many oldtimers in this thread, so I assume this is a one of the best places to ask this question.
people paid for bitcoins?
I got them for a few cents in power, and got free heat in the wintertime out of the deal
Well, you still paid for your bitcoins - in USD, via electricity bills...
And yeah - free heat in the wintertime is good, but all the heat during hot summertime isn't fun... with all the efforts/spending for cooling them.
Do you want to tell you still keep the bitcoins you mined for few cents, and your average price per Bitcoin is less than $10?
An important note: take into account the amount of time you spent to get your bitcoins, which include mining setup/maintenance, trading time, reading news from all the different sources, participation in forums (heh

) and so on... Time is money... actually - much more than money... ehh. If I don't count all that "labor costs", my average cost per BTC is really low, but when I take that into account, I feel like I have worked hard / spent a lot to get them...