All posts made by arcmetal in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 14994695 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Pre-halving rally is go.

I noticed that the price was on a small linear rise these past few days, then it just popped up. The only thing I can find as to what it might be is this: "CFTC Grants Full Registration to Bitcoin Swaps Trading Platform" -- Coindesk.... or is it just the "pre-halving"?
What's the prevailing wind out there say?
2.
Post 14996660 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
I noticed that the price was on a small linear rise these past few days, then it just popped up. The only thing I can find as to what it might be is this: "CFTC Grants Full Registration to Bitcoin Swaps Trading Platform" -- Coindesk.... or is it just the "pre-halving"?
What's the prevailing wind out there say?
There are some technical reasons, because there was a fakeout, and we've broken through resistance.
It was just time.
The time has come.
Bitcoin prices have been pushed into a bear market from 2014 through most of 2015 (about august).. then the tide had turned, with multiple unsuccessful attempts to push the price down, the bears are running out of coins... .. so something has got to give.. and the only way left to give is up... So here we go baby, fueled in part by FOMO (and unspent gas)

Thanks, gents.
And enjoy this ride.
3.
Post 51023630 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
....... there's NOBODY in the general public looking to buy or can afford to buy imaginary timestamps for $7000 nowadays, so who the hell is the greater fool supposed to be? All the greater fools like JayJuanGee and Trollgoossens are already all-in. ............
Stahp trying to suggest that bitcoin is either a saturated or mature market. Only about 1% of the whole world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin, so there are plenty of folks who will be ready, willing and able to buy into bitcoin. Also, many of the people who are 1% owners of bitcoin, are not necessarily "all in" bitcoin, including yours truly.
I will admit that since late 2014, I had largely established my stake into bitcoin, but I do continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin, too, so accordingly, I will concede that the percentage of my allocation towards bitcoin is likely quite a bit larger than a lot of other people who are "into" bitcoin.
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...
I have noticed it takes all kinds to fill this planet and make it go round.
You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back. He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin. Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."
And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then? And his response was "yes". ...
He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say. The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone. There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one. I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.
It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.
4.
Post 51023843 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
Don't quote r0ach. Life is too short.
hehe, this be true and wise. But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.
5.
Post 51024139 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
hehe, this be true and wise. But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.
You can edit embedded quotes.
Just Say No, to r0ach. He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
Certainly, but what intrigued me most was JayJuanGee's comment:
...
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...
There seem many here willing to post all sorts of explanations for the current bull run, any of which is plausible, but unprovable, except to realize that not all have entered into buying any bitcoin. In my opinion, this reason is enough to explain every bull run.
6.
Post 51024441 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
hehe, this be true and wise. But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.
You can edit embedded quotes.
Just Say No, to r0ach. He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
Certainly, but what intrigued me most was JayJuanGee's comment:
...
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...
There seem many here willing to post all sorts of explanations for the current bull run, any of which is plausible, but unprovable, except to realize that not all have entered into buying any bitcoin. In my opinion, this reason is enough to explain every bull run.
Personally, I don't get too animated by any single theory explanations for BTC's price performance.
Surely, BTC development and adoption has increased in the past 7 years, and during that time, and we have had two or three (if you count 2013 as two) bull runs in those past 7 years. BTC's adoption seems to be coming along slow, in terms of total number of people getting involved, yet it is still becoming much more popular, including way more avenues of liquidity through exchanges, ATMs, merchants (not so much on this count) and otherwise. One area of development that still seems to be in its early stages is financialization, and surely more financial tools are coming available, and financial institutions are increasingly studying the bitcoin space and proposing various kinds of bitcoin financial products that they are considering to offer, so even though financialization seems like a double edged sword, it also seem like the direction that an accepted asset grows, and bitcoin does seem to be headed in that direction....
Back in 2011 I could keep up with every new development surrounding bitcoin, but today, I certainly cannot. That it gets absorbed by all sorts of financial instruments was inevitable, and for the most part a good thing.
What I mean by double edged sword is that there are likely going to be various means to manipulate Bitcoin's price up and down, but it seems that through increasing awareness and legitimacy that will come through increased financialization, and through the robustness of bitcoin's code, bitcoin is going to likely survive through these likely upcoming turmoil periods.... Don't get me wrong, I am not arguing that bitcoin needs financialization, but I am asserting that financialization seems to be an inevitable direction for BTC whether incumbent BTC HODLers want the double edged sword aspects such increasing financialization or not.
I have also recently noticed this double edged sword of it being absorbed by the institutions. I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply. This is a property that has never existed in any other asset, its closest example may be gold.
Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.
7.
Post 51024777 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply.
If you're in the camp that believes Bitcoin wasn't created by the govt as a trojan horse for a
cashless society slavery system, then their op to control the price would have obviously been when they launched those CME derivatives. Since nobody uses them, they would likely shift to plan B and do something like walk into Coinbase, issue a gag order and seize it under "national security" while paying them off with some stipend, then go full blown fractional reserve Gox 2.0.
If you assume bitcoin is not created by the govt as a trojan horse, their goal is to obviously control the price through fraudulent derivatives just like they do in metals. For their next step, since step one obviously didn't work, they would either do something like take over Coinbase and manipulate there or just try to outlaw them all together. I don't really see that happening myself since bitcoin is likely a govt invention and they want people to buy these dystopian tracking system tokens instead of metals.
Its a nonsensical argument since bitcoin is designed to be like cash, or rather better than cash. So one would not create something that works like cash for a "cashless" society.
And if you're worried about the tracking aspect ... there are ways to make this it more private. I believe they are called those "privacy" coins. Also, it seems that bitcoin can, and might, absorb these privacy technologies.
Taking over coinbase wouldn't have that much of an effect anymore. Instead they'd have to try to take over every exchange, but this is getting more difficult to do every day, and you'd have to consider the decentralized exchanges. So, not really realistic.
8.
Post 51024874 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
[edited out].
Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.
Exactly!!... And, each of us likely know that even though bitcoin has a limited supply and an ability for individuals to immediately demand their private keys, institutions are going to try to manipulate bitcoin, but there are likely going to be some learning involved from individuals to realize that they can keep institutions in check by demanding their private keys.
It will take a while for these matters to play out (game theory or whatever), but one of the powerful aspects of bitcoin remains the power of the people to exercise control over their asset in an immediate way.
Yes, but sadly plenty of laypeople will be taken advantage of simply for not knowing the basics. This stuff is still too knew.
I still remember when I was little and taught in class about how to use and count pennies, nickels, dimes, quarters, etc. Does anyone here recall getting taught the basics of bitcoin in the first grade? Of course not, because this tech is only ten years old.
It may be a generation later before everyone knows the basics enough to defend their stash of coins.
9.
Post 51026568 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
.....
You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back. He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin. Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."
And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then? And his response was "yes". ...
He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say. The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone. There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one. I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.
It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.
I would say his responses are more indicative of his fear of loss as well as need to stay with the herd.
Many people exhibit this irrational response to a highly speculative investment. They are not willing to risk any small loss, even for the prospect of a very large gain. 'Safety' in that type of view, is worth more than any potential reward from a gamble.
Yes, this is something I've noticed with most. Naturally, why would they wish to risk anything on something they don't quite understand. I know I wouldn't spend money on something that didn't make sense to me or I didn't find a use for.
But as time passes, knowledge of a new technology slowly seeps into the common lexicon, and in turn creating new bull runs.
10.
Post 51028661 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
I saw breaking news today that Ebay accepting crypto.
- No Joke -
It wasn't "news". It was a random tweet with a picture of a bunch of boxes.
Was this the picture? I don't think those are boxes. It looks like the side of an escalator, supposedly at consensus.

11.
Post 51028977 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
I think that just means you can buy and sell virtual currency stuff on eBay which has always
been the case.
True. Their catch phrase "It's happening on eBay" can mean almost anything.
12.
Post 51054832 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
What "use case" do you think bitcoin solves out of interest ? (Apart from making coin-grabbing early adopters rich)
so you really donīt know it yet? you been in this forum since sub $100 prices. you did not understand it back then, that is why you are no early investor. nothing to be ashamed of. but after 6 years and 6000 posts... i see...
how about:
permissionless, trustless, uncensorable, borderless secure and safe transfer of value.
unconfiscateable, immutable, truly decentralized and safe store of value.
lots of slick buzzphrases and matching graphic elements
I feel like I was just sold a shamwow
lol, a shamwow coin is a great idea. I'd buy one, for the hell of it.
As for the "value" of alt-coins, I believe they serve an important purpose. They are an incubator for experimental algorithms, like a large and wild ecology of untested possibilities. Most have failed, but so what, every now and then you'll get a good idea to survive. And if its good enough it can get absorbed into bitcoin.
Thus, I see the alt-coins as part of a large infrastructure beneath bitcoin.
13.
Post 51496969 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.51h):
Its getting close and so I thought I'd post this here. I still recall the crazy thrill of seeing this back in 2017, capturing a screen image and sending it to a bunch of friends. It surely seemed unbelievable to reach 10,000 back then.
from Nov, 28, 2017:

14.
Post 53905025 (copy this link) (by arcmetal) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.16h):
Nuts.
... But hoping I am the nuts instead.

I don't think those interviewers noticed his tie. lol.