All posts made by damnek in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2033953 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
How many times do I need to tell that we will not see 100 again?

We've heard this one before

2.
Post 2265888 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
I think the Liberty Reserve news is a big deal.
LRUSD was the virtual currency of choice for a lot of shady or barely legal businesses.
I estimate a few TENs of millions LRUSD are now suddlenly useless.
I find it amusing that the price is heading south for the short term. This is major bullish news IMO.
3.
Post 2284702 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Did we just see a 2.5k sell without the price moving?
Time to get some popcorn

4.
Post 2289150 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Clarkmoody lagged on me... was the wall bought, or removed?
Bought, all of it...
Removed (after 1k was bought)
I watched it live, looked like it all was bought, and volume is almost 7k so seems right.
there is not buy volume 7k (last hour) Wall removed when volume dropped below 6k
I saw it being bought up in bitcoinity.
5.
Post 2294595 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Mt.Gox information policy is strange. They deleted the Dwolla news and didn't say anything about DHS, not even till now, but now they are playing heads up? +1 for something is in the air, but at Gox, not OKPay.
Mt.Gox and Mutum Sigillum are legally two different entities. That's the important point here I think.
6.
Post 2507915 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
I actually sold some BTC during the last 3 days. We have a giant wedge, which well may break to the upside, but as well it can break to the downside, which means we will viciously crash to $50 in the final capitulation. It is easy to sell bitcoins, and there are no support levels after 88 and 79. Many latecomers are still sitting on gains. Even all of my net purchases ever are green (I never net purchased above $100 after all) and my finger is becoming itchy. I always tend to think that I represent a group of people, and that group is now on the sell side, no chance to buy as we are already all-in.
If we break to the upside, I will buy in at a loss with a predetermined schedule. I am not nearly as sure
of the probability and timescale of my $300k prediction as before. However, IF crypto takes over fiat, there is still no realistic way to do it without Bitcoin reaching $300k. (Or I would still like to hear the reasoning

)
Pray tell, what is your buy in price? If you are sitting on a million euros or so, i'm sure we can prop up the price. It's the greater good!
Don't pay attention to it. He has made several posts in the past invalidating what he says here.
7.
Post 2677273 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
Surprised this rally hasn't been killed quicker, all the bears sleeping?
Or are they waiting for bids to build? There's 3.5kBTC above 70. That looks like tasty bear food.
Seen more buy pressure today but it's not convincing of a rally.
I just love how the sentiment is slowly changing.
8.
Post 2981140 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
And Mark Karpeles aka MagicalTux is the Ben Bernanke of Bitcoin.
9.
Post 2993600 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Bitstamp chart looking painful for the second wave of sellers

10.
Post 3373958 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Mizuho Bank in trouble. What does this have to do with Bitcoin? It's the bank that Mt.Gox uses:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304330904579132822082403460.htmlI'd say bullish for bitcoin, perhaps the withdrawal delays are not Mt.Gox fault after all?
11.
Post 3390635 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
No way can this pump last if no new incoming fiat. Soon as it's gone, IT'S GONE AND WE DIVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.
Easy. $$$ is going into MtGox from countries not called the United States. Gasp! The thought!
Plenty of new money is entering exchanges. Lots of it. In Bitstamp and China in particular.
No, not really. Bid depth on those exchanges pales compared to Gox.
All the money is on gox and will not replenish. Current buys = capitulation.
If that is the case, then why did the spread between Bitstamp and MtGox decrease?
12.
Post 3430192 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Even lower this time I presume. Operation Bubblepop in progress.
Alert: trader talking his position
13.
Post 3449815 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Even after the big bad news from Western Union that dropped their stock yesterday, I'm not buying back my short position on NYSE:WU.
Long Bitcoin, Short WU unless and until WU buys MtGox and saves both WU and Gox, then I buy back and go long for the long bomb.
Seriously though, if Gox had WU's Money transfer licenses and global reach, and WU had... well... bitcoin, they would both survive. As it is they are both dieing.
If the goxxers here need any help putting that deal together, give me a buzz.

Hi-five!! I covered it right at the open and reshorted it on the bounce. Interesting future targets are Visa and Mastercard.
I went over the conference call transcript and interestingly there was no mention of bitcoin specifically, but they did say that the "competition" is becoming stronger.
14.
Post 3577128 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
I just witnessed on Gox a single massive 1.4 K sell at once at 430 dropping all the way down to 405. Damn.
It's good to see how bitcoin isn't affected by this kind of things any more.

and yet it bounced RIGHT back up to 430.
I don't have the numbers off hand to back this up, but it seems like the April-May rise would have been seriously affected by such a sell even for a few hours. This time around it's almost like these dumps don't happen.
Am I crazy for feeling this to be the case?
no this is indeed the case.
the "bubble pop" happened on very little volume, everyone let that knife fall. no one is letting the kinfe fall today... ( might be because the chinese promiss to buy ALL the bitcoin for mtgox price +10%

)
sheez where's that guy with the 700 dollar per coin contracts? he just simply just ignored me LOL!!!
/\500 will be the proving ground imho!
Do I hear $500 tomorrow? It's quite possible given todays high was $70 higher than yesterday...
I think the odds of seeing <350 tomorrow are higher..
15.
Post 3758353 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
An 80 BTC or so ask seems to keep popping up just below 1000 on bitstamp. It gets bought up, a minute later there's another. Stealth wall?
Probably a bot slowly selling off without trying to scare the market.
I'm wondering if it's the same player who bought the 900+ BTC on the way to breaking 1000 USD on stamp. Pave the way past a resistance, sell what you can over 1000, sell the rest to cover whatever you didn't manage to sell yet. If this is the case we shouldn't see much more than 900 sold this way. Otherwise, who knows.
This sounds like a trading strategy that can be used in late stages of a rally to keep the downside risk to a minimum, while still grabbing some juicy profits. If enough people do this at the same time it would definitely amplify the drop as the short-timeframers all want out at the slightest distortion of that cycle.
16.
Post 3767646 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
Where did this video show up? I'd like to know how old it is.. The pumping is now being directed to the dumb masses..
17.
Post 3767707 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
Where did this video show up? I'd like to know how old it is.. The pumping is now being directed to the dumb masses..
Further into the video they show that bitcoin is trading at $500, so it can't be that old.
18.
Post 4376399 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.53h):
Someone just panic-market-sold c.200 coins on Gox to bring the price down to $900. Who does that with such low volume?
I guess some people see it as a last resort to get a "decent" price. They forget that it's hard to get the money out.
19.
Post 4431359 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.54h):
Indeed, I think it's about time for an uptick
20.
Post 4567357 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.56h):
No follow-through to the downside at all..
21.
Post 4986247 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.03h):
If mtgox doesn't have their clients' bitcoins, wouldn't that be bullish? A lot of people will not have the number of bitcoins they thought they had.
22.
Post 5012070 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.04h):
Like for one they are still fully staffed and not letting people go left and right
As if no one has ever turned up for work one day and found the doors chained shut.
There is no reasonable explanation for what people are experiencing from Gox on the BTC side of thing (Fiat problems are a totally different issue) that should have lasted for more than 20-60 minutes, tops. Of course, people should have been getting off of there months ago but this is *BAD*.
Bitcoin will prevail but we're up for an interesting few days ahead.
I can believe USD problems. I can believe SEPA problems.
In isolation from the above, I can believe bitcoin client problems.
I am deeply troubled by JPY domestic withdrawal issues.
Put all 4 factors together at the same time and it is the exact behaviour of a company that is trading while insolvent. Especially since this pressure has been building for such a long time.
I think (for one reason or another) that they have probably been technically insolvent since June when they stopped the USD wires. That bought them some time.
It is only now that they have finally had a run on the bitcoin bank and exhausted their ability to string everyone along and the music has stopped. Everyone in the room caught without a chair is SOL.
We will see. Gox has been claimed to be dead many times before. They make so much from fees, Karpales would have to drink about 40000 frappachinos a day to burn through that much money.
A lot of the volume at Gox could be generated by themselves.. in which case the amount of money they collect from fees could be a lot lower.
Another thing that rang suspicious to me is that mr. Karpeles mentioned somewhere (sorry, lost the source) that they had some fiat deposits into their bank account which they had credited into their user accounts, but were charged back by the user, and of course lost btc that way.
23.
Post 5310913 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Any reason for this rise?
Fuck these irrational markets. Bitstamp rises because MtGox rises. Then MtGox rises because Bitstamp rose. These two exchanges are jerking each other to the fucking moon.
The whole world was short bitcoin, only a spark was needed to get some shorts covering, which is snowballing into a nice little rally

24.
Post 5507023 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
Hopefully there will be lots of Oscar coverage. I just can't gets me enough actor worship.
lol
25.
Post 5814779 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
It's taking awfully long to get some momentum going to the downside, is the bear on its last legs?
26.
Post 5824371 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Cant believe my eyes
in the front page of zerohedge
The Nasdaq Biotech index is getting monkey-hammered this morning and is now 10% off its late-Feb highs. Crucially, this sector has been a major pillar of strength for the overall Nasdaq and that means the Nasdaq is also getting crushed
did they actually just say that bitcoin has been propping up the Nasdaq?? lolol
trolling?
I also read "bitcoin" the first time I saw the article. Boy, I guess I'm addicted :p
27.
Post 5836993 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
This is ridiculous. Who the hell would dump 2.5k coins onto the market considering that we've been red for the last 7 days? This has to be the dumb money.
28.
Post 5837083 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
a lot of us here know how great bitcoin is, and so we expect huge money in the shadows all the time.
I challenge this for two reasons;
- institutional money is timid to enter the exchnges. it is a lot of risk to hold millions of dollars on an unregulated exchange.
- not everyone thinks it's great! we are in good company, but never far from a bitcoin basher. we would be wise to expect corrections to natural fibonacci levels than guessing that the illuminati is ready in the wings to buy billions of dollars of bitcoin!
Let me remind you that facebook bought whatsapp for 19 billion USD.
29.
Post 5837399 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
This feels like capitulation.
If you're right, then long bitcoin short stocks could be an extremely profitable trade right now. That's what my money is on.
30.
Post 5866865 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.
Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames. Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it. If you are reluctant, I could go first..... but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...
all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,
could be next year its 250 then the next 3000
could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years
lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....
no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up
amen brother
31.
Post 5914956 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
32.
Post 5986182 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
lol, one of the many blockchain.info glitches
33.
Post 6009591 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
Some bullish thoughts:
If we enter the double digits range itīs probaby to late to sell, i can īt see us stayin in single digits/lower double digits for more than a few days.
But hey after all, itīs the honey badger isnīt it?

Keep talking, I'd like to get a few more at cheaper prices

34.
Post 6242996 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
A 4k buy with maximum slippage right at the end of a wedge. The guy had plenty of time to buy during the wedge and instead chooses to buy when it hurts his wallet the most. Looks like manipulation to me.
It's crazy how the entire community is obsessed with a few sites that in reality combined probably can't even match the volume of bitstamp. This is the new mtgox and people just love manipulation..
35.
Post 6407576 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
We have a buyer
36.
Post 6409253 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Thanks, I will use that during the runup $1,000->$5,000. With 10:1 leverage and 1 million initial investment, that'll be... 40M profit.
I doubt that you'll ever get that kind of money from those guys. They're like a grown up version of mtgox.
37.
Post 6670003 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445
Please do

38.
Post 6706029 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Sell the news !
While all news and publicity is good, this particular piece isnt too bullish as its just more money invested in a service thats in the business of converting BTC to Fiat.
which requires btc.
think it through, people. sheesh.
The narrative that people will spend their btc and therefore btc price will fall is becoming real old now.. Bears are just looking for a cue to sell to try to get the market lower. So far the 1k sell at bitstamp has had very little effect, which shows imo that the downward cycle is coming to an end.
39.
Post 6728812 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.
Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:
Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:
2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
-
another flashcrash to $2.2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
-
?(to be found out in 7 days....

)
I'd like to bet against your call, interested?
40.
Post 6914553 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
The mini wall was bought!
41.
Post 6927182 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
I guess that guy has too much money and wants to sell his coins cheap. Very altruistic of him. Just like that guy 2 days ago who dumped 600 coins while we were going up. Very nice guy.
It's probably newbs abusing the leverage of bitfinex.
42.
Post 7060259 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
In the meantime chinese exchanges are catching up with bitstamp. These walls could be an arbitrage effort.
43.
Post 7150196 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
monkey says down a bit now, intraday. still looking for daily gains through late next week.
in case you care: monkey thinks the s&p is very, very toppy here on a daily basis (monkey starts to buy vol over the next 2 weeks, makes diagonal puts with weekly options) and yet wants to buy USDJPY later today for a Monday reversal. monkey is contrarian on TSYs and wants to buy some now, some more in a few days, to sell late next week or early the following week.
Me likes that monkey.
44.
Post 7309835 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Those ppl were asking for trouble
45.
Post 7328822 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Come on, one more spike down so I can get me some moar.
This FBI thing is NOTHING to be scared about. I consider it bullish, but I consider everything BTC related bullish due to the fact that IT'S BITCOIN and ANTI-FRAGILE.
I think the main fear is that this auction is to test the waters for the sale of the 144k or so coins from SR
46.
Post 7506056 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
did btc just fall below the very long term uptrend? :/
Yeah....and on low volume!
If we have slipped -$20 below the Jan 2013 support line on this sort of volume, I wonder how low we could ping when a bout of panic selling kicks in?
Looks like yet another time where I have called the market correct yet stand to make no money. I was short. But unfortunately I was short on Bitfinex whilst market was still consolidating and was also foolish enough to set a stop loss providing Bitfinex with all the tools it needed, to farm my Stop Order along with a whole bunch of other Stop Orders. Indeed, because of the shady way that Bitfinex front run clutches of Short Stop Orders and then sell back to them at a higher price, on this occasion, I have called market correct and actually lost money.
How can exponential growth in price be a "trend"? Get real ppl..
47.
Post 7533500 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
This is
insane.

Maybe it's someone who found an exploit in the lending system? I read that there were some shenanigans going on there a couple of days back..
48.
Post 7573198 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Do we know when the first ETF will launch? I think that could be the thing to propel us to alltime highs.
GoPro went public last Thursday and increased >30% in a matter of 2 days. The stock market is still in full bulltard mode; I hope bitcoin can IPO while it lasts..
49.
Post 7573234 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Do we know when the first ETF will launch? I think that could be the thing to propel us to alltime highs.
GoPro went public last Thursday and increased >30% in a matter of 2 days. The stock market is still in full bulltard mode; I hope
bitcoin can IPO while it lasts..
Is this a serious statement or are you just being funny?
I'm serious, obviously I'm referring to the fund, not bitcoin itself..
50.
Post 7573266 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Do we know when the first ETF will launch? I think that could be the thing to propel us to alltime highs.
GoPro went public last Thursday and increased >30% in a matter of 2 days. The stock market is still in full bulltard mode; I hope
bitcoin can IPO while it lasts..
Is this a serious statement or are you just being funny?
I'm serious, obviously I'm referring to the fund, not bitcoin itself..
The fund (ETF) isn't going to "IPO."
Whatever dude
51.
Post 7599600 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
All the MatTheCats have been shaken out - ready to go up again
52.
Post 7710767 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Here's the trade, for future reference:

so almost 133 BTC sold for $9798.99 each??
how is this not bigger news....
some eccentric whale testing the waters? a drunk day trader? time travelers from 2015?

Bitcoinwisdom consolidates buys and shows the highest buy price. So even if out of the entire order only 0.0001 btc gets bought for $1 it would look like 133 btc got bought at $10k.
53.
Post 8380674 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Looking pretty good short term. I think Bitfinex is dragging the others up as people re-leverage.
Finally some volatility again!
54.
Post 8380892 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Looking pretty good short term. I think Bitfinex is dragging the others up as people re-leverage.
Finally some volatility again!
Yeah, turns out that Bitfinex actually can lead the market nowadays. Even the Chinese are following.
I think the market is really trading different from how it used to be. Maybe a certain class of traders packed their bags and left after the MtGox fraud? It just seems that there's no more real weight (as in volume and velocity) behind bounces after a sell-off. I'd love to see some of that come back..
55.
Post 8380931 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Looking pretty good short term. I think Bitfinex is dragging the others up as people re-leverage.
Finally some volatility again!
Yeah, turns out that Bitfinex actually can lead the market nowadays. Even the Chinese are following.
I think the market is really trading different from how it used to be. Maybe a certain class of traders packed their bags and left after the MtGox fraud? It just seems that there's no more real weight (as in volume and velocity) behind bounces after a sell-off. I'd love to see some of that come back..
I think what you're looking for may be Willy.
Didn't Willy just buy at a constant rate? All I'm asking for is to get more of the panic-dumping-and-then-reversing back, lol. But yeah, since the MtGox closure it all seems really bearish.
56.
Post 8578282 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Bitfinex will literally explode if we should break through 530$, their askside is paperthin, there are only about 1500BTC between 530$ and 580$ right now.
Exactly. Creating the walls took too many coins out of higher asks.
Break the wall and we cruise to upper 500's.
I took a small bite at 510, but no one followed. At this point (505), if someone buys 250 coins to get the ball rolling, I am sure the wall will either will run or get eaten. 505 feels very cheap.
It does. It's just that noone seems to be interested in buying anymore, which makes me nervous.
57.
Post 8671902 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
So is there any news related to this bump that I am missing here? Not that I am complaining.

Yes, huge news: chart movement in last days and trader tension. As most of the time of huge moves, no other news.
QE in the Euro
58.
Post 8743601 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "
Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.
Thoughts?
Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator.. don't pay attention to it. How the hell can you compare a payment system with a precious metal anyway?
59.
Post 8743927 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
...
Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator..
The useful and prescriptive indicator being opinions of the ignorant?
Analysts and ignorants are not mutually exclusive.
... don't pay attention to it. How the hell can you compare a payment system with a precious metal anyway?
Because many Bitcoiners consider it a store of value?
I don't think it matters what a handful of bitcoiners think when bitcoin becomes used by the masses through Paypal and the likes.
60.
Post 8761621 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
like i said, Huobi needs time to consolidate, there's a big battle to be had for 3,000.
Bitstamp and Bitfinex both proved their power by buying out similar sized walls easily and in big chunks. The reason i hate that we follow China is they don't seem to have the power to buy as big. They do have bigger volume but there's rarely ever a buy over 200btc, it's just thousands of small trades over and over because of the 0 fees. That's why it's so frustrating to see us follow them, when clearly we have the bigger and more powerful traders.
Just open a 10x leveraged long position on OKCoin, that way you can push some volume in there yourself

61.
Post 8761893 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
lol going long on Huobi/OKcoin is oh so tempting , i doubt i could get 10x on my holdings, if i did i'd absolutely destroy their orderbook.
It's problem you face as a larger trader.. you have to trade against the momentum really
62.
Post 8762444 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
lol going long on Huobi/OKcoin is oh so tempting , i doubt i could get 10x on my holdings, if i did i'd absolutely destroy their orderbook.
It's problem you face as a larger trader.. you have to trade against the momentum really
I enjoy trading small amounts on small $10 swings. If I make a bad call, it is easy to get out even or at a negligible loss. Anything over 100-200 coins takes a different strategy, much better execution, and is usually higher risk.
True but leaving capital to trade 100+ coins laying around doing nothing also costs money, that's a cost of missing opportunity elsewhere.
63.
Post 8792391 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.12h):
Interesting, could have some implications for bitcoin adoption by Google:
Rumor: Google Inc To Buy 40% Stake In EBay Inc At $68/Share
http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/09/4846049/rumor-google-inc-to-buy-40-stake-in-ebay-inc-at-68share
64.
Post 8792472 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.12h):
DANG! This is their move against the recent apple faggotry... Well played.
Yep, this could be their move
65.
Post 8876595 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
keep dumping guys

66.
Post 8943444 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
holding above $440 at bitstamp.. could this be it? are we finally going up again?
67.
Post 8959982 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
68.
Post 8962123 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
It looks like they decided to turn the China Manipulation script back on at Huobi...
Until bitstamp or btc-e starts doing 0% fees this will continue I'm afraid..
69.
Post 8962284 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
It looks like they decided to turn the China Manipulation script back on at Huobi...
Until bitstamp or btc-e starts doing 0% fees this will continue I'm afraid..
I don't think fees are the issue. Fake volume is. Maybe bitstamp needs to make its volume appear 10x higher than it actually is...
I stopped trading at bitstamp because it's just too difficult to make more than the fees (2*0.2%) on an average trade. It used to be possible, but bitcoin got less whippy lately, which I believe is being caused by the 0% fee exchanges. This can have a snowball effect because less short term volatility causes other traders to leave too, making bitstamp follow other exchanges instead.
70.
Post 9089181 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Taking profits in my okcoin futures account. This is too good to be true

71.
Post 9089251 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
IMO if you're still out or short, it's silly to not give it a little shot right here. Not saying it can't go lower, but the upside potential here beats the downside. People are using bitcoin for payment, so there has to be a floor in the price. Moreover, at this rate you're getting exponentially more bitcoins for your short and there are only going to be so many left for sale.
72.
Post 9278830 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):
The closer we get to 400 the more coins are added on the ask side.
These people are extremely afraid we go over 400 and that their coins will be worth more.
They can only hold down the price for so long.
73.
Post 9646500 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
74.
Post 10132083 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
The futures and other platforms are creating an inverse MtGox.. this is gonna end badly for short sellers
75.
Post 15124593 (copy this link) (by damnek) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Agree that longer term plays are still relatively easy. Those would be the high "win rate" plays. Losing edge on the shorter term plays will have a dramatic influence on variance tho. It's where the bodies are buried ! A slow leakage, that slowly hastens in time due to excess activity. The analogy being to the online poker player that met his own eventual demise by being overly aggressive and too "active" with other very competent players. Variance skyrocketed with few people noticing or fully appreciating it. Some of these otherwise competent players went bust from an extended "cold streak", farther stretched than anticipated. Some of them had a "hot streak" of course, which only instilled a false sense of confidence in one's "game" and talents. Those players would move up in stakes rapidly, with that confidence, before the variance would inevitably bite them in the ass.

Least in Bitcoin there's a simple solution, focus on the higher win rate plays which sometimes require sitting tight. Don't fly too close to the sun.
I completely agree with your observations. It takes time and intelligence to stay "up to date" and understand what drives the market. You can't expect to be lazy, not do your homework, and still get paid (i.e. the 5-minute timeframe gambling).