The Chinese are awake and they are in the mood to party!  I suspect we'll pause at $300, but 2000 yuan = $315 US is where we'll see serious resistance.

We're bound to see some profit-taking, but I think it will pick up again.  Does anyone else see the curves in the 1h, 2h, 4h, and 6h charts?  Below 1h it looks like a line but it's still there.  There's the occasional deviation above and below but take those away and the data almost fits a simple growth model.  With a little imagination the curve even extends back before the dip in August, if you look at the 12h.  I don't know what to make of it.  Opinions?

That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear.

If this is the next bubble forming, judging from the log charts, we could hit $1000 again by Xmas.  

That's what I want.  You hear me Santa?!?  I've been good this year, dammit.

You nailed it.  We've been in a bear market for what, 20 months?  I'm inclined to think it's undervalued and we're due for a significant market correction.  And that's if nothing outside the Bitcoin ecosystem changes...any number of things will skyrocket the price past $10k.  Some of those are so likely it's not a question of if, but when.

Sorry, not lambsie.  I seem to recall him/her, but it's been a year since I last lurked here.

Wait, wasn't there something about a sacrificial lamb a few pages back?

China is waking up and heading to work now.  I expect we'll see some action start in the next hour or so.

6:45 AM in Shanghai and someone's buying.  I bet we cross 2000 RMB again in the next few hours.

I see the market finally made up its mind.  We were hovering around 2000 on Huobi and Okcoin, not sure if I'd call it resistance, the volumes were low, but some hesitation was expected.  Finally pushed through, paused at 2005, now seeing 2015-2020.  Where is the next major resistance, chart gurus?

What I don't understand is why there is a difference between the prices on these 2 exchanges and BTCC.  It's less than a percent, maybe enough that withdrawal fees are to blame.  But Bitfinex and Bitstamp are a good $10 lower than the exchange rate would suggest, even with fees factored in.  The last time I noticed a consistent spread between exchanges was with Gox.  I also don't believe the volumes on Huobi and Okcoin for a second, so I'm a little suspicious.

That makes sense, the coins are leaving China.  Possibly getting sold for Euros or USD, that would help maintain the difference.  Arbitration is not an option because it's hard to move RMB out of China.  Or harder, anyway.

Yeah but the 1w RSI still has plenty of room before we hit 2013 levels.

Definitely.  Anyone know where the next resistance levels are?  I don't know about $31x anymore, I thought we'd hit the 2000 RMB resistance there, but it really happened at $304.

Agreed.  Today's action hasn't even started yet.

I love it!  Even if it is bullshit, I still love it.

I'm comparing our current volumes with the May 2014 rally as well as the November 2013 insanity.  History may not repeat itself, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see $450 next week.

Don't worry bears, it's about to go down.  I just bought a few coins to round out one of my stashes, and it always goes down right after I buy more.

Methinks a sizable correction is imminent.  Predict Chinese exchanges will bounce off ~2100 before resuming the upward trend.  We might see $31x on Stamp etc.

dis gon b a very minor correction.  The next one will be in the $400s.

I think you were right before, the coins are leaving China.  That's creating a demand/supply ratio that's higher on the Chinese exchanges than on western exchanges.  On top of that arbitration is not frictionless, if it were the prices would equalize right away.  We know converting from BTC to USD and Euros carries little cost, and moving BTC is virtually costless.  The hard part is getting CNY outside of China, their government has barriers against that.

Oh and before anyone points out that the CEOs of the 3 biggest Chinese exchanges all said this is new user adoption, what would you say if you were them?  Certainly not the truth.  Their government has a tendency to jail the owners of companies that do/permit/enable things they don't like.

Bingo.  I'm sure they have watchdog agencies watching the flow of money the same as we do, and it's a simple enough cover story.  But I think we can find evidence of the lie in the numbers they're reporting.  For instance the volume on Okcoin doesn't look like new users.  If it were the volumes would look more like BTCC and Huobi.  Instead it looks like they just multiply their real volume by some constant, leaving the ragged edges of an insufficient sample size.

The volumes on Okcoin and Huobi right now are unusually high for this time of night.

Possibly but I'm not convinced.  It's 4:35 AM there.  They haven't been up this late during the past week.  Something's different.

This is the kind of thing that makes me think the price won't even pause at $1000 or $10000 on the way up.

It's 8 AM in China.  The train is just leaving the station.

Choo...choo...choo...choo... 

My first sell point is just above 1000.  I like the SSS Plan: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0, it enables profit taking while the remainder continues to increase in value.  And it removes emotion from the decision process (which may be the most valuable part of having a plan).  If his advice resonates with you, I suggest trying several variations until you find a schedule you're satisfied with.  I spent a week tweaking my spreadsheet before I settled on values I'm comfortable with.

Just a quick followup, d9000 created a website to try this out without diving into Excel/LibreOffice, it's a good starting point: http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com

Hmm, we only need to go up $10 per day to hit $1000 by 2016. 

If we keep going up at this rate, it'll happen early next week. 

And if the rate continues to increase as it has been, it could happen this Saturday.

The correction from that will give us whiplash.

Can someone turn that into a gif?  Half a second per chart?

I see what you mean, it's a little too choppy to watch the price movement that way.  The stills capture the change over time well enough.

Edit: I'm looking forward to seeing what rebuilder does with it!

Resistance at 3000

The panic selling on Stamp is too funny

They're the ones that hesitated at 3000.  It took a difficult couple of hours to get past 2000 too.

Agreed, the rollercoaster is the fun ride!

Q for the EWT masters: we're at the end of an ABC correction pattern right?  From here is it possible to estimate how high the next 1, 3, and 5 will take us?

Aaaaaaand it's gone.

I was thinking just the opposite, we're going up at a steady, methodical pace again.  Mei Lei bot seems blissfully unaware of the price collapse just a few hours ago.  Her maker should give her an emotion function so she too can freak the [redacted] out.

Any EW people awake right now?  N00b here, I want to know if you think that correction earlier was Intermediate Wave 2.

Edit: Or was that just a Minor correction?  Masterluc talked about Major Wave 3 lasting 7-10 years, we shouldn't be that far into it already.

Have you backtested it against historical data?  Performing well down is one thing, sideways is another, that tends to kill MA crossover strategies.  Goomboo's Journal thread has some relevant advice. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

Edit: If you start looking for optimal signals, you might want to try this heatmap approach: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.msg736808#msg736808

I found one.  I know she looks like a piece of fei wu, but if you treat her proper, she'll be with you for the rest of your life.

This is brilliant.  Even suggests Jamie Dimon's comment that Bitcoin won't survive was deliberately done to drive down the price.

Just checking in to see if everyone is losing their shit.  Carry on.

It's Monday morning in Shanghai.  The next 6 hours are critical. 

So, will BTC go down because China dumps their hodlings, or will it go up as USD devalues?

Perhaps both?  First China dumps and we revisit $275.  When they run out inflation takes over again and we're back to $400 before you know it.

And here come the red bars on Huobi.  Couldn't have timed that better.

Perhaps.  Looking at that chart, I can't help but think we're getting close to the other side of the hill.  I don't know if the Fed will raise interest rates or not next month, but I suspect they're thinking about more QE.  If the world starts dumping USD for Yuan, they won't have to.

Interesting how the similar spike 2 days ago did squat to the price, whereas this one raised our baseline about 2 points.  It's almost like someone is deliberately measuring the impulse response.

Right you are.  The word I was looking for was "specifically".

Yup, still critical

The next 24 hours are...nevermind, you get the idea.

And cryofreezing heads so they can recover brainwallets when the technology exists. 

The big white box on the outside
will become the small white box on the inside
and there will be much pizza.

So say we all.

You and I share a common vision of post-singularity life 

Huobi @2999, tsunami always seems to hesitate here

I would expect you live in Australia

I prefer to think we're now in a Wave 3 that's just getting started, and the correctional Wave 4 that follows will end above (way above) $500 in February or March April or May.
 

It's too early to call a trend, but since the Fed announcement the yuan has lost ground against other major currencies.  Here's one example:



Source: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=EUR&view=12h

Bullish.

CNY and USD haven't moved much relative to each other, they are in the same range as before the annoucement, but USD is also down against the Euro, as well as the other currencies in the drop-down selection box.

Edit: nevermind, it looks like all the currency pairs are returning to pre-announcement ratios.  Just the system absorbing the news, I guess.
 

According to this StackExchange page you can convert wallet.dat to a newer format using the Berkeley DB utils:

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/37247/wallet-dat-0-4-0-format-retrieving-bitcoin-possible-security-concerns
 

I can't speak to the Chinese volume, I'm only tracking Houbi and BTCC and both look completely fake.  As for the others, Finex has been a leader lately:

Last 7 days:

New forecast from masterluc

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/fvhCAiH9-EW-development/

This is all totally normal...this is all totally normal...this is all totally normal...

This could be a C&H with horizontal movement for months until the next breakout, or...



...anyone not buckled in will be kicking themselves in a matter of weeks.

Nice article, it tells me what I want to hear.   It also agrees with masterluc's projection from a few months back (which isn't a surprise since they're both EWers): https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MrwPhbog-Long-Term-Bitcoin-price-extrapolation/

Price has resumed the average growth rate from Dec 20 to the drop (higher sloped lines).

If the long term trend (lower slope) holds, we'll be permanently above $1000 this summer.