All posts made by vuduchyld in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 7645954 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Anyone interested to bet that we will never see sub $640 again??
50:1 odds
Which side of that are you taking? I think we will see sub 640.
2.
Post 7879021 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
I wonder why I can never reply to any of the polls. I always see the poll with the votes, but I never get to answer
3.
Post 7880584 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
Speculation inherently runs the risk of being wrong. That's no excuse not to participate. Stop beating around the bush and make a price prediction, Stolfi.
A couple of months ago I tried issuing a daily ~20h prediction based on a hunch that I though might work (the "Chinese Slumber Method"). But in the end it was not significantly better than the trivial method "tomorrow the price will be the same as today".
So my prediction for tomorrow at this hour on Bitstamp is 621.18 USD. Also for next year on this day, too.
Certainly as good as any prediction I've seen on this board...and actually better than most!
4.
Post 8069456 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
sniff sniff...nibble nibble.
Yummy! I hadn't nibbled in months! New coin tastes delicious!
5.
Post 8073095 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
Rally time, bitches. Who sold?
I bought a li'l at $576. But let's not start licking each others' popsicles just yet.
6.
Post 8084173 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
I'd say pretty much ZERO chance of a recession announcement. First of all, I don't think we had negative GDP growth in the second quarter. Second, the conspiracy-minded part of me is damn sure that the books would be cooked so that the even if it were one, we wouldn't call it one right now.
MAYBE after the third or fourth quarter, they'd issue a revision that went back and said we had a mini-recession once we had a quarter or two of positive growth.
7.
Post 8085180 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
I like it.
yumyumyumyumyum.
Buying opportunity. Raises my dollar cost average more than I'd love to see, but it tastes sooooo delicious!
8.
Post 8106919 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
Dear Forum,
If you're nervous, you are over-invested.
Sincerely,
vudu "never nervous" chyld
9.
Post 8107244 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
Dear Forum,
If you're nervous, you are over-invested.
Sincerely,
vudu "never nervous" chyld
Or you entered a long position leveraged at 10:1 or something
Hey, what's at stake? Only your complete stash of bitcoins!
over-invested
10.
Post 8109464 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Just bought more. Nom nom nom.
11.
Post 8110834 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again!
How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.
To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.
Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.
When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.
12.
Post 8111072 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Everyone stop panicking. This is following what I said earlier today. We are past the second horizontal, but it still could hold which means we will be following a triangle to a point before a crash or a moonshot. But what I think will happen is 560 will break and then we will rally around 540 in keeping with the slight downward trend from June first. If there isn't a rally there then or 540 won't hold, then the long term trend should keep it above 515. If that fails. We are in for a ride and I expect some crazy action.
http://imageshack.com/a/img536/8384/OyNafd.pngSaying 'don't panic' then predicting a possible 515 or worse, is actually infuriating - apologies - but I am personally hoping the 550s is as bad as it gets!
But 515 is the long term trend bottom. After that it's a climb back to 630-40. I expect a spring bounce. But if 515 fails all hell will break loose and anything is game at that point. Basically don't panic until you see 520, and then don't loose your shit until we hit 510.
I really don't know which long term charts you are using, but my first really important long term Trendline is a lot lot lower. So we both can hope that your Trendline is stable.
To not to terrify, if your Trendline got broken you really should search on lower levels. I think a lot of people here are getting shaken because they have no plan B(earish) and to high expectations.
Long term bottom channel trendline (up slope) is 515. There are horizontal support pockets below that. But they are in the 400's and 300's. I don't see it getting that bad. But I'm ready if it does.
Strong hand, like bull!
My dollar cost average was $476 before my recent buying spree on this ride down. So I've raised it over the last ten days. Haven't figured it yet, but surely around $500. That said, I'm ready for anything, as well!
13.
Post 8111924 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again!
How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.
To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.
Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.
When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.
BTW: I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little.... continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.
However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings... My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then. I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015... Then have to go to plan B.... ..
don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?
The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015. I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.
How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%? I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.
Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment. I think diversification is beautiful, myself. I've learned hard lessons in my life. If BTC runs, I'm happy. If not, I'm still happy. Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old. It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times. It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets. I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.
14.
Post 8112365 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again!
How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.
To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.
Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.
When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.
BTW: I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little.... continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.
However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings... My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then. I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015... Then have to go to plan B.... ..
don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?
The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015. I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.
How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%? I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.
Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment. I think diversification is beautiful, myself. I've learned hard lessons in my life. If BTC runs, I'm happy. If not, I'm still happy. Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old. It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times. It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets. I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.
You are correct. The loan was unsecure. It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure.
I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.
I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%. It is more difficult to find 0% these days.
Then I guess in your case, the question is whether or not you can generate a return in excess of the interest rate. Sounds like you have in the past. You also need an exit strategy to repay the loan...and a Plan B for repayment if the shit hits the fan.
We're just probably at different places in our financial plan, because I personally would be reluctant to do it that way. YMMV. Not sure how well I'd sleep with that kind of exposure, in this case, to your credit. I guess $20,000 might be a car, and you could keep a car longer and divert budgeted payments to that loan, worst case.
At least you don't seem to be in a panic, so good on ya.
15.
Post 8113065 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again!
How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.
To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.
Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.
When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.
BTW: I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little.... continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.
However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings... My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then. I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015... Then have to go to plan B.... ..
don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?
The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015. I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.
How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%? I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.
Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment. I think diversification is beautiful, myself. I've learned hard lessons in my life. If BTC runs, I'm happy. If not, I'm still happy. Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old. It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times. It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets. I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.
You are correct. The loan was unsecure. It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure.
I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.
I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%. It is more difficult to find 0% these days.
Then I guess in your case, the question is whether or not you can generate a return in excess of the interest rate. Sounds like you have in the past. You also need an exit strategy to repay the loan...and a Plan B for repayment if the shit hits the fan.
We're just probably at different places in our financial plan, because I personally would be reluctant to do it that way. YMMV. Not sure how well I'd sleep with that kind of exposure, in this case, to your credit. I guess $20,000 might be a car, and you could keep a car longer and divert budgeted payments to that loan, worst case.
At least you don't seem to be in a panic, so good on ya.
In part, I am NOT too worried about paying back the $20k b/c I have considerable confidence in BTC appreciating by then... and also the terms of the loan is that I have to make about 1% payment per month on the loan, and therefore, by 9/15, the loan will be less than $18,500. Additionally that $20K loan represents less than 1/4 of my total BTC portfolio holdings.
If BTC does NOT appreciate or sufficiently hold value, then I have some back up ideas that could cover my pay back amount of $18,500.
1) I have a index stock fund that is totally liquid that has a current value of more than $25k;
2) I have a non-liquid asset that is more or less guaranteed to generate an income of about $80k over that 16 month period;
3) I have a quasi-liquid asset that is currently valued at more than $400k that could be accessed in an emergency situation;
5) I have some business assets that are NOT very liquid that are valued at about $100k that could potentially generate some funds in an emergency situation;
6) I continuously monitor my various financial assets to ensure that they remain more or less on track - if they start to go off track, then I can strive to make adjustments; and,
7) I may have some other untapped resources that could possibly tap into in order to generate some income... if i needed.
ATM, I doubt that I need further preparations.... Therefore, I feel pretty confident about my having had leveraged about 1/4 of my current BTC holdings.
Straight to the point, you're also only talking about 3% of your net worth. Makes a lot more sense that way!
16.
Post 8142558 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Now I'm really rich!
I saw that, too!
17.
Post 8142952 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Looks like all of the alts were screwed up, too. Wasn't just BTC.
18.
Post 8224321 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Here's an analogy specifically crafted for the ageing brain, hehehe...
Why, thanks!
And here is a parabolic fable for you:
[...]
I do not know what happened next, but surely time must have vindicated those Wright Flyer I enthusiasts.
I like the story.
And its conclusion: maybe you're not on board with Bitcoin, but you see the value of
cryptos in principle... I'm okay with that. Bitcoin is just the currently strongest contender. I'm not nearly as committed to btc as I am committed to cryptocurrencies
Psssshhhhh. It's ONLY 93% of the total market cap. C'mon man!
19.
Post 8298805 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
nom nom nom...I'm finding the offering tasty at this price point
20.
Post 8306133 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Why do these sellers want my overinflated fiat so bad?
because bitcoin is over-price even more
Short-term, where is this thing going to turn? Your last three predictions have been very close to short-term bottoms...basically the price stopped falllling about 2% from where you thought it would, then shot up, at least temporarily.
21.
Post 8306144 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
He is right. It simply looks very bad. There is no way you can talk this right.
It isn't bullish. It isn't a great time to buy.
It's bad.
Ding ding ding! We have a strong buy indicator! 567 on Stamp!
22.
Post 8332857 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
With sharp rebounds like the one we saw this morning, I feel like we are still not close to a capitulation point.
23.
Post 8333833 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
What's happening is people are taking profits and cutting their losses after a breakdown? Or is that too realistic?
Surely anyone can only take so much of living in their parents' basement while they're holding tens of thousands of bitcoins however much they believe in it. It's not a bad time to take some profits.
I would say it is actually a terrible time to take profits. Should have done it weeks ago if one wanted to maximize that profit. That, or hold on until the next run up. And make no mistake, there will be one.
24.
Post 8334955 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
What's happening is people are taking profits and cutting their losses after a breakdown? Or is that too realistic?
Surely anyone can only take so much of living in their parents' basement while they're holding tens of thousands of bitcoins however much they believe in it. It's not a bad time to take some profits.
Should have done it weeks ago if one wanted to maximize that profit. That, or hold on until the next run up. And make no mistake, there will be one.
Why? There are two obvious candidate scenarios to take profits, i.e. exit a long position: early on after a rally, at a suspected peak (which requires a certain amount of predictive analysis), and comparably late, when it looks like the only way to go from here is down (momentum based analysis). To me it looks like the current move is driven mainly by the second factor.
You're right...if you're exiting now, you're saying that the only way to go is down. And you'd likely be looking at a reasonably long time horizon, because if it is a
profitable long position, you've been in it at least three months.
If you really see nothing but down you cost yourself quite a bit by not realizing that 24 hours ago. If you think it might rebound, hell, you've already been in it a while.
25.
Post 8335621 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Keep in mind, I'm just trying to give an explanation on why I don't see the swing of the last days as driven by "panic selling". Sure, if your trading horizon is daily, then selling today at $530 was a miss probably. And if your assumptions about Bitcoin are such that, in a year from now, you think it'll be worthless anyway, you should have sold long ago.
But if you, like a number of speculators/semi-holders/traders/whatever in here, are mostly opportunistic, and don't subscribe to the mantra that any price below the ATH (or some uber-optimistic regression trendline) is "cheap", then what's so irrational about selling now, expecting that you'll be able to buy back cheaper in a week (or a month) from now, when and if the market turns around again.
Time will show if it was indeed "panic selling" or not. If price goes further down from here, it wasn't. If we recover and never touch the mid-500s again, it was.
I totally agree that most speculators/semi-holders/traders/whatever in here are mostly opportunistic. I do think it's interesting that so many people let the price influence THEIR perception of value. It is probably due to the lack of traditional fundamental underpinnings such as earnings or assets that one sees in other trading markets.
I'd even agree that we didn't get any kind of panic-selling capitulation this morning. Not nearly enough fear or volume, IMHO.
Maybe I'm just not so in-tune with the mindset of the BTC opportunists. Or maybe there is a (probably false) distinction in my brain between 1) profit-taking and 2) selling at a loss to buy back cheaper. I could see the latter more easily than the former.
26.
Post 8348579 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Happy day for me! I've got dry powder. Might pick up a six pack of bitcoin this morning. Maybe a twelver!
27.
Post 8356345 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Grrr...bought yesterday some BTC at 525$ and just realized the price is at 500$.Will HODL until the price will recover,if it will recover.
I bought at, I think, 523 yesterday. So I bought more at 498 today. Fuckit.
28.
Post 8356413 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Back down to $500. Anyone buying up these "cheap coins"?
Yes. I'll buy more if it drops again. I'm far from a whale, but I do have dry powder and this is a buying opportunity for anybody who believes in the long-term.
29.
Post 8359758 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Well folks... we going to break the $525 resistance or are we going to swing back down and start another cascade?
The last two mornings, I woke up, looked at the price, and IMMEDIATELY bought. I suspect that may happen again in about 7 hours and maybe again in about 31.
30.
Post 8367193 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Looking for an entry point...probably gonna buy some more this morning. Life is GOOOOOOD!
31.
Post 8398177 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Damn it was already >$520 and so many people told "We will never see <$500 again"....
and what now?
Damn with those dumpers and bears..
Usually you shouldn't listen to people that tell you "We will never see < or > $XXX again"....
Indeed. Never is a long time.
Oh by the way, I got the Coinbase brush off this morning...the message about exceeding limits. But I just now bought 0.2 BTC with no problem. Not sure if it means they resolved the issue or if the buy was just so small.
32.
Post 8407618 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
I was fixin' ta back the truck up at $475 and load up. Wondering if I will get the chance. If not in the next 48-56 hours, probably not.
33.
Post 8407749 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Oh, my. Yes. Yes it does.
34.
Post 8415816 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Wonder what it is about this time of the morning. It's the witching hour.
35.
Post 8421813 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
nom nom nom!
BTC tastes sooooooo goooooood at this price point!
Back up the truck today!!!!
36.
Post 8422363 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Pretty sure this entire thread is just Adam talking to himself with alt accounts. Even I'm not sure I'm real.
No, that's not what I...I mean...uh...Adam...that's not what we're doing at all!
37.
Post 8424357 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
this catastrophic price movement (i am losing a fortune)
The price now is what the price was in May, and about 4x what it was a year ago, and 40x what it was 2 years ago.
What are you doing so wrong that you're losing a fortune under these circumstances?
Perspective!
Enjoy this opportunity. Don't try to catch an exact bottom. If BTC was somehow fairly priced at $620 or $650 or $700 when you bought, then what has CHANGED?
Just the price? Don't panic and decide that price always equals value.
38.
Post 8427786 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Huge 462.9 hidden bid at Finex. Hundreds of coins bought so far.
Hundreds of coins dumped so far...
There will be big dumps along the way if bitcoin goes down to $440 and less, Winklevoss twins and Tim Draper could panic sell.
I would think that Draper and Winklevii aren't worried about their next meal or their retirement. No need to panic. They, along with GABI, are actually watching all this with some glee. Doesn't hurt any of them and might actually help.
39.
Post 8437616 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Huge 462.9 hidden bid at Finex. Hundreds of coins bought so far.
Hundreds of coins dumped so far...
There will be big dumps along the way if bitcoin goes down to $440 and less, Winklevoss twins and Tim Draper could panic sell.
I would think that Draper and Winklevii aren't worried about their next meal or their retirement. No need to panic. They, along with GABI, are actually watching all this with some glee. Doesn't hurt any of them and might actually help.
Vuduchyld - Even though you are suggesting that neither Draper nor Winklevii are manipulating, you are also stating that they ARE profiting from whatever price lowering and/or manipulating that IS occurring.... In other words, you are implying support for the conspiracy theory which suggests that they have an insider's incentive to manipulate and to make EVEN more money.
ftfy
hope I did it right
Hey JayJuanGee...this thread is moving so fast that I missed your post above.
Honestly, I don't know. I was mostly just responding to the notion that Winklevii and Draper could panic sell. I highly, highly doubt that would be the case.
One thing I've noticed as I've aged is that I'm generally a better trader. I'd like to attribute that to accumulated wisdom, but in fact, it's more likely just a function of the accumulation of more assets. I know I absolutely do NOT care what the price is today, tomorrow, or next week. I assess value and nothing the market tells me about PRICE influences my perception of VALUE. I've bought more in the last few days than I expected to buy, I can tell you that. In my opinion, the price-to-value proposition dictated it.
In my younger days, or days with less security, I would unintentionally find myself too emotionally attached to PRICE. I've certainly panic-sold stocks. People like the Winklevii and Draper have literally NEVER wondered where their next meal was coming from. I literally have...and I don't anymore. And there is a difference in how I trade now. And if I'm wrong? Really doesn't matter. Whatever happens, my toes are still tappin'.
Do they have the power to manipulate price, as whales? Maybe. I'm almost certain that they could INFLUENCE it, at the very least. Are they doing it? I have no clue.
40.
Post 8440565 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
This board is so incredibly bipolar. I love it.
I think we're 7-10 days away from a solid upward trajectory.
I made three separate buys under $470 yesterday and I'm keeping some powder dry. I think we'll see a little more wailing and gnashing before we find more solid footing.
But what do I know.
41.
Post 8440749 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
This board is so incredibly bipolar. I love it.
I think we're 7-10 days away from a solid upward trajectory.
I made three separate buys under $470 yesterday and I'm keeping some powder dry. I think we'll see a little more wailing and gnashing before we find more solid footing.
But what do I know.
Maybe you should sell with profit and buy back under 430!
It's a thought, but I'm not that invested in trying to time THE bottom. I have my longer-term value targets and right now I am more interested in accumulating BTC for what I consider to be a good price.
I think I may have another buying opportunity in the next 7-10 days. We'll see. But I'd rather be wrong and get left with a little extra fiat that I didn't spend than be wrong the other direction. At least this way, I'm still hodling the BTC, which is want I want to do.
42.
Post 8444274 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
when this thing turns its going to be VIOLENT, the manipulation is totally unsustainable, when is the breaking point is the question.
Sodled when you should've hodled? Noob.
My new favorite poster!
43.
Post 8444635 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Methinks megawhale is going to squeeze the shorts to death with invisible bid wall on Bitfinex.
Possible, but...cui bono?
Who benefits?
I'm not trying to push some hidden agenda and to avoid earlier confusion I caused, I think there is a difference between INFLUENCING price and MANIPULATING price.
I'm not even saying that it is happening. But IF it is, I can't imagine that anybody benefits from big rise before 9/1. I'd personally expect another 9-10 days of massive volatility. I don't have ANY facts to base this on. It's pure speculation, which means I'm in the right subforum.
Personally, I made several buys under 470 that I didn't think I'd get to make. Got to accumulate a little more than I'd expected, and I have powder dry because I'm going to back up the truck again if we get to 435-440. If we don't, that's cool, too.
Ultimately, I'm a HUGE believer in the longer term. Ran through some more calculations today and I'm as convinced as ever about VALUE. Price is short term and it can vary massively from true value. Right now we have a divergence between price and value, and I'm a BUYER. I think I'll get more chances, too.
44.
Post 8444935 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Methinks megawhale is going to squeeze the shorts to death with invisible bid wall on Bitfinex.
Possible, but...cui bono?
Who benefits?
I'm not trying to push some hidden agenda and to avoid earlier confusion I caused, I think there is a difference between INFLUENCING price and MANIPULATING price.
I'm not even saying that it is happening. But IF it is, I can't imagine that anybody benefits from big rise before 9/1. I'd personally expect another 9-10 days of massive volatility. I don't have ANY facts to base this on. It's pure speculation, which means I'm in the right subforum.
Personally, I made several buys under 470 that I didn't think I'd get to make. Got to accumulate a little more than I'd expected, and I have powder dry because I'm going to back up the truck again if we get to 435-440. If we don't, that's cool, too.
Ultimately, I'm a HUGE believer in the longer term. Ran through some more calculations today and I'm as convinced as ever about VALUE. Price is short term and it can vary massively from true value. Right now we have a divergence between price and value, and I'm a BUYER. I think I'll get more chances, too.
Shut the fuck up and buy. Thanks.
Seriously, you are my favorite poster today, by far!!!!! LOL!
45.
Post 8446903 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
GABI wants a run up starting 9/1.
At the end of September, they want to be able to tell potential investors that their fund had a 30% return in 30 days. Would put us back at 630 or so.
If they had $30mm or so to play around with, it would be easy. And even if they lost 10% of that $30mm, they make it back by charging their investors.
Not saying it's what is happening, but if you want to know a potential reason why price and value have diverged...
46.
Post 8452336 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
will we have what we are looking for? will price ever reach 1000$ again?
price will need to find its footing again, we thought we had it and doubled from the low to 680
now longs have been squeezed, shorts are increasing price is tanking and everyone is questioning everything again
this will pass... we may or may not make a new low b4 this passes who knows.
i wouldn't be surprised to see another doubling from the low after the market has found its confidence again, after that hopefully the good news keeps flowing and more importantly new users, and we'll be on our way.
don't expect a smooth ride, and i would think the market would refuse to buy 1000$ bitcoin again untill theres some good news / more usage.
but good news / more usage seems to be what's coming, with things like COIN being listed on the us stock exchange, thats sure to make heads turn, and there are other things to look forward to... once it gets going, things should turn around pretty quickly...
If all this happens and we do reach 1000$ again it will most certainly not stop there, we'll probably do another 10x increase aka "bubble"
Will it EVER reach $1000? "Ever" is a long time. If you're looking down the road a few years, the answer is that of course it will. I'd stake a whole lotta money on that. Even if it takes 3 years to hit $1000 (I don't think it will), where else are you likely to more than double your money in that period of time?
BTC value in my opinion can be derived from the value of the user network (Metcalfe's Law) and its corresponding share of global M2 money supply. And you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. Crypto is just a better product than other options out there...see Cypherdoc's post that Overstock says use of BTC saves them 8% over credit card fees and currency exchange! That's probably pretty close to their net margin!
At 0.5% of global M2 and 5x more velocity than current, BTC is worth approximately $3000. I don't know how long it takes to get there, but it WILL. And keep in mind that the price/value graph will show BTC price crossing back and forth over the value line. Right now, I strongly believe that price is lagging value. As value climbs due to increasing adoption (as currency AND store of value, hence the M2 not M1 comparison), we will cross over and shoot to the high side.
I wouldn't expect to see a straight shot up from $1000 to $10,000. We may not see another move like we saw last year, one that takes place over such a short period and has such a magnitude. But BTC will absolutely go back over $1000. I couldn't possibly guess when. It might be in September. It might be in 2016, but even if it takes 4-5 YEARS, buying at $480 ish is a fabulous investment in the future.
47.
Post 8452402 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
I have never sodled a BTC. Only hodled.
48.
Post 8454709 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
I am waiting for the retracement. If there is a good push, I will be in big.
I still want 465, but am starting to doubt we will see it again. Ever.
It's not September 1 yet. I think we'll see more volatility for at least the next week.
49.
Post 8455767 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
stop wasting ammo
target 490
its not like the bear has a choice.
Bear can choose 457 in 8 hours.
I agree...no need to waste ammo here. I guess it depends on your strategy and time horizon, but I've made several purchases under 470 this week. If I don't put ALL my cash to work, I can live with that for now. If we get down around 445-450 (maybe 457) I will load up again in that range. If not, I'll sit back and chill.
If it drops more, I'll buy more. But I know I'm not smart enough to pick the exact bottom.
50.
Post 8458075 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
I want to buy another btc but I can't until someday next week because my bank account is currently suspended for trying to buy 2btc.
You need a new bank.
51.
Post 8458551 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
This shit is crazy right now.
52.
Post 8458667 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Seriously, though, do y'all believe in this run? I mean, it's not sustainable, is it?
Keeping some powder dry, not trying to find THE bottom, still. If I don't buy again for a while, that's OK.
53.
Post 8458707 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!
Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?
I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate
They'll throw in the towel around $525 even if they don't get liquidated I'd imagine. Unless they are cray cray.
.
So...like, NOW? (Just hit 525. legendary run)
54.
Post 8478682 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
We are going to settle around $500 until early Sept. Then mini-bubble followed by stagnation until mega-bubble in March 2015.
Yep
55.
Post 8479311 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
adam, you nazi. stop deleting my posts.
Some of Chartbuddy's have been disappearing too.
Chartbuddy trolling violated TOS.
56.
Post 8561883 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Adam have you really bought into that Ether IPO scam?
yes.
Not wrong with gambling, that´s the reason why we are here
I met the kid that is the driving force behind ether, if he doesn't make me rich idk who will.
Unfortunately, his goal isn't to make you rich. It's to make himself rich.
57.
Post 8568977 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
The awesome part about this particular low slippage purchase, is I'm fairly certain it's the GABI backers. If so, every coin I take from them now, without slippage, will have to be repurchased in a few days, hopefully with lots of slippage!
Hard to believe they would be so unsophisticated. But I guess it ain't their money.
58.
Post 8578844 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Adam, are you hoping for the price to rise so that you can reduce your position?
I'm just curious, because I seem to remember that you're low on fiat. If you want to raise more fiat, you might hope for a rise. But wouldn't that only be to sell, so you could buy back cheaper?
I am frequently puzzled by the motivations of my fellow community members. Sorry if too personal. I guess I am fairly price agnostic right now. It's gonna do what it's gonna do in the short term.
59.
Post 8578960 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Adam, are you hoping for the price to rise so that you can reduce your position?
I'm just curious, because I seem to remember that your low on fiat. If you want to raise more fiat, you might hope for a rise. But wouldn't that only be to sell, so you could buy back cheaper?
I am frequently puzzled by the motivations of my fellow community members. Sorry if too personal. I guess I am fairly price agnostic right now. It's gonna do what it's gonna do in the short term.
I reduced my position last year. as the price was moving up i was selling 1BTC a day everyday, at one point market totally ran me over, i ended up in the hospital.
ever since i've been holding and buying back in at opportune moments ( mostly above current price ), ran out of fiat last week.... no plans on selling, not for years, hopefully never, just spending it slowly.
Whoa...sorry to hear about the hospital trip. I try to keep up on most of this thread, but I'm sure I miss pages every day. I did not know that whole story. Thanks for sharing.
So up is good because you won't feel underwater. But down is also OK because if you come into fresh fiat, you can buy. I guess down might make you feel like you missed an opportunity?
I don't think I'm qualified to advise you on anything at all, but I personally take comfort from Buffet's words when he says, basically, you can only strike out swinging in markets. You can't strike out looking. Any deal that you DIDN'T do can't come back to bite you, so there is no point in regretting it.
Let's see...any more platitudes I can share? Thinking...
60.
Post 8579094 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Far more likely, IMHO, that GABI is trying to cap the price for a couple of days so they can generate outsized returns in September, drawing new investors to the fund.
61.
Post 8586892 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
You're welcome, bears. I just bought 2. Price sure to dump.
62.
Post 8605035 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
400's again for some seconds when I was out, but still close to no volume.
And seriously ppl posting rocket pictures at this situation?
I'm always afraid when we're crossing such a psychological threshold, as I'm afraid some stop losses are being fired, that trigger some longs on margin to be liquidated. Things tend to go pretty ugly on Finex when that happens, you know
I understand the worry, but I don't think these things have lasting impact. Hell, even if the price dropped to $200, it wouldn't change my 2020 outlook. And I'll be hodling.
63.
Post 8610413 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
I'm a buyer this morning...small buys on 5 separate occasions.
Feels goooooood! Tasty!
64.
Post 8610686 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Don't get confused about the difference between price and value.
Value hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. Price has.
Markets can be irrational for long periods of time...what is the saying? Markets can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It is possible I'm just completely wrong. It's possible that events will take place that I can't envision right now. But my firm belief is that the market is handing me inexpensive coins right now, this morning, compared to what I perceive as the long-term value.
I'm buying. If the price keeps dropping, I'll buy more. Personally, I'm loving it.
(Always leave powder dry. Never trade more than you can afford to lose. If you need the money tomorrow, don't put it in BTC today.)
65.
Post 8615882 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
I'm a buyer this morning...small buys on 5 separate occasions.
Feels goooooood! Tasty!
Even though I keep buying and hodling.. similar to you, I don't feel good about it... I mean overall, I am still confident, but it still makes me nervous to have my whole BTC holdings falling in value like this - even though I am fairly certain it is temporary.. probably less than 6 months, at most.
I feel ya. But I still bought at 474 a couple of hours ago. Right now, I can bring down my dollar cost average.
66.
Post 8615928 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
price is irrelevant bitcoin is doing good.
cosign
There is NO WAY bitcoin is actually WORTH less than it was in March. Too much new adoption, too many developments. So if you think it was worth $500 in March or you bought in the $600's in April, you absolutely HAVE to understand that there is divergence between price and value over the last month.
Everything I watch still tells me BTC should have a value around $2400-$3000 by 2019 or 2020. (NOT price, but VALUE...I'd suspect price will overshoot on the high side of that number, probably more than once.)
I just don't care what the price is today...unless I think it is so inexpensive I can't afford NOT to buy. And that is currently what I think. I've hit the button at least 6 times today.
67.
Post 8615987 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
I'm a buyer this morning...small buys on 5 separate occasions.
Feels goooooood! Tasty!
Even though I keep buying and hodling.. similar to you, I don't feel good about it... I mean overall, I am still confident, but it still makes me nervous to have my whole BTC holdings falling in value like this - even though I am fairly certain it is temporary.. probably less than 6 months, at most.
I feel ya. But I still bought at 474 a couple of hours ago. Right now, I can bring down my dollar cost average.
I should add, JJG, that I'm probably feeling bold because, while I have spent some time underwater in the last month, as of yesterday, I was in the black on all BTC-denominated investments I've made. This was, in part, due to a rapid rise over the last week in XMR. I'm close enough to break-even that I was back underwater this morning when BTC was around 480 and XMR was around .0044. But with some buys I made this morning in both BTC and XMR, I'm pretty sure I'm back in the black.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, I've accumulated assets today. It's a damn fine day.
68.
Post 8616355 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
602.06
602.46
588.06
582.03
578.06
584.66
579.75
573.47
558.02
516.79
498.15
465.04
507.18
492.03
493.10
479.41
Looks pretty close to my list of buy prices! I can't remember the date and I'm too lazy to look it up, but probably 5-6 weeks ago when we exchanged messages, I had a cost average of $476 (or at least that was my last calculated average, but I knew my real average was a bit higher because I had made purchases since my last calculation.) I have raised that average since then, but again, I've been buying various increments since my last calculation, so I can only guess I'm somewhere between $510 and $520.
I've also accumulated a bit more than I had originally planned to accumulate by now, but I'm thrilled to have more. Absolutely nothing has changed in my mind about bitcoin. I know I'm not good at finding intermediate tops, selling into them, and buying back lower. So this just means I have more BTC that I will not lose by outsmarting myself in trades.
69.
Post 8623351 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
473 . CodeRed!SELLSELLSELL
Why in the hell would you sell at 473?
You're supposed to BUY low and sell high!
Edit: never mind...I think I missed the sarcasm. My sarcasm meter wasn't properly calibrated.
70.
Post 8632425 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
The owner of a properly positioned portfolio shouldn't much care where the price goes, especially in the short term. Only the best or luckiest day traders can use this market as a reliable source of income. For most of us, it is a form of investment or savings. Leverage really takes away from your ability to wait out the fluctuations, so it should be used mostly in those rare circumstances where price have moved very far and rapidly out of the trading range and a partial snap-back is almost inevitable.
If you have an outside source of income and a positive cash flow, then almost anytime is a good time to buy. It's just a question of how much. Everyone wants to maximize our return on investment, but being too greedy or stingy can cause you to miss out on opportunities. This downward momentum we are currently experiencing shouldn't bother long term holders much because it is an opportunity to distribute coins to either more people (which will widen the user base) or smarter people (which will reduce volatility and make bitcoin more useful for transactions). In either case, it's good for the long term growth of the Bitcoin economy.
ding ding ding! winner!
71.
Post 8656569 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
Anyone here recall the time btc was hovering 4.6 usd after going just over $2?
Like then this time btc is undervalued as shown by this updated hw vs projected btc return document.
I pay attention to the short term numbers 15 to 30 day indications.
If a person is wishing to get started with mining they may seriously consider the buy and hold option as your taking on less risk.
Here is an updated hardware vs return chart shared link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharingNow THAT is interesting and useful. Thank you.
72.
Post 8680583 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
It's a ponzi.
It's a pyramid.
There is no intrinsic value.
...
I should not go to bed now
we
cannot go to bed
the next 8 hours are
critical 8 hours? Did you forget? The Next 24 Hours are Critical for Bitcoin
TM
73.
Post 8853130 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
How many Supernet/UNITY tokens ya got?
74.
Post 8859482 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
I'm a buyer today. Nom nom nom.
75.
Post 8859549 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
That would be sweet. I'd get almost double the BTC for my fiat.
76.
Post 8863468 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
This is so fucked up..
makes zero fucking sense
anyone thinks there's a chance for sub 300??
I don't know if I will sell my whole fucking stash or leverage HARD if we would sub 300
How much are down from your original investment, in %, if I may ask?
It looks to me like you're over-invested, and the best thing to do in all likelihood would be to reduce your position - not now maybe, but on the next larger rebound - to a size that makes you look at the market with less apprehension.
I know it sounds somewhat counter-intuitive, but any chance you could see yourself doing that?
Well my life savings are down about 40% but I also invested all my money(about 25% of life savings) on an average of about $120 so technically i'm not losing any money yet but I really don't wanna sell the coins I invested in at $120(they are in cold storage in several different banks) so you could say i'm down 40% with alot of money
My plan was to get my initial investments out when we would go for the next bubble ($4-5k)
So you're still up around 20% in total currently. At $300 though, you would be
down around 20% in total.
I understand the reluctance to sell at less than what you had planned. Try not to panic sell, I'd say, and give it at least a
thought to sell a part of your position when price seems to recover again, to reduce your exposure. Good luck
This is sage advice
77.
Post 8869201 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
JJG, maybe if you do a thought exercise in some extremes, it would help clarify.
If your potential double down comes in January 2015, you definitely have some time to think about it. What will you think if BTC is $260 at that time? You'll be farther underwater. Will you think, cool, this is a REAL chance to bring my cost average WAY down? Or will you be even more apprehensive to be that far underwater?
What if BTC is at $660 at that point? You'll be up by that time, probably more than 10%. Will you think that the price is high enough that you won't want to up the ante? Or be emboldened by the fact that you were right, but the timing was just a shade off?
We've chatted about this a tiny bit via PM and as I recall you're close to my age. I do think age plays some factor in how aggressive you'd want to be. As I've dabbled in alts, especially, I'm reminded frequently how few safeguards there are in this market. There is exchange risk, with Mt. Gox being the obvious example, but not the only one. There is the risk of a hack or a code failure. There is even some user risk involved.
For me, if I'm right about where I think bitcoin is going, being right with 10% of my portfolio will make enough of a difference for me that I'll consider it a huge win. I'm still well under that number and looking to find good entry points. (I bought some today, as well!) Hard to imagine that I'd go much over 10% without new information that dramatically impacts other USD investments. I'm still invested in the stock market and those investments are doing very well, so there is no real urgency to press this one--especially given the systematic risks.
Of course, YMMV. If we're no longer in a big downtrend, you might look to double up for a limited period of time to make up some ground, then drop back to 10%. Or there may be new fundamental news about adoption that affects your view of BTC or maybe rising interest rates that may hurt your stock portfolio...or maybe the dollar starts a significant slide that makes you want to be more in BTC.
I think you'd want to avoid pushing towards BTC just for the sake of making up for any current loss. That's dangerous, imo.
78.
Post 9091477 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Wow... I actually like Krugman, but this quote was amazing:
"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s." --Krugman
Methinks that 10 years from now, we will have the same laugh about his BTC thoughts.
79.
Post 9091827 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Why do I feel so confident buying??
It worries me honestly
I'm right with you.
80.
Post 9092261 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
price is literally jumping so fast I can't buy on coinbase. Every time I hit the button, the price has changed.
81.
Post 9093118 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
It's a great day for accumulators.
Very happy to add to my position at these prices. Of course, I'm super small time, but this makes me happy.
82.
Post 9093135 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.
Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.
Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.
Risto I'm curious, I assume your opinion is that this is just temporary noise but if bitcoin were to EVER die out, how would you expect it to unfold and at what time?
WAYYYY too much new adoption, and, importantly, WAYYY too much new infrastructure and VC participation for this to be any kind of swan song. We're still REALLY early in this story, not really late.
83.
Post 9093399 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.
Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.
Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.
Risto I'm curious, I assume your opinion is that this is just temporary noise but if bitcoin were to EVER die out, how would you expect it to unfold and at what time?
WAYYYY too much new adoption, and, importantly, WAYYY too much new infrastructure and VC participation for this to be any kind of swan song. We're still REALLY early in this story, not really late.
Right but how can you be so sure??
I mean, even though with all these good news and hype, there just seems to be no buying pressure and we barely had any bulltrap at all.
It doesn't make sense to me
Also the fact that everybody seems to be so sure that it's not dying out any time soon worries me
Well, I will tell you that in my opinion, there is no way to know if we're near the bottom. We may well not be. But as for the death of BTC, I think it was Mark Twain who said, "The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated." The protocol ain't dying and there are lots of people who seem committed enough to it that I feel great about my buys. Of course, I'm not investing what I can't afford to lose and I'm not counting on a quick return. Just a long-term outcome that is basically anything-but-death.
84.
Post 9093416 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
You guys don't know when to spot a capitulation, do you?
I hope this is it, but I'm not putting my life savings on the line for it or anything. Almost seems like this was too short for a real capitulation. Still too many confident people (like me!)
85.
Post 9093562 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events.
That is it, in a nutshell.
Markets are sometimes irrational. Use that irrationality as a buying opportunity.
86.
Post 9093711 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
podyx, I don't think you could find even one possible example that would indicate infrastructure is in decline.
Overstock, Dell, Priceline
GABI/SMBT
possible ETF
Paypal
Draper/VC money
87.
Post 9094024 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I was out for tea -- yes, I am studying in England so they really do such things here -- when Stamp and BFX cratered to $275. What was the sentiment on the floor. There seems to have been a nice little bump up thereafter, but I am getting the impression that people don't feel the bottom is in, yet. Any thoughts?
My solid and firm answer: I don't know.
88.
Post 9094112 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I was out for tea -- yes, I am studying in England so they really do such things here -- when Stamp and BFX cratered to $275. What was the sentiment on the floor. There seems to have been a nice little bump up thereafter, but I am getting the impression that people don't feel the bottom is in, yet. Any thoughts?
My solid and firm answer: I don't know.
Thanks man. Yea, it looks like about $2 to $2.5 million in swaps fell off the board in that downdraft. Quite a bit, but not catastrophic like I was hoping (that's the wrong word... but catastrophic enough to be a clear signal). Interesting, interesting, interesting. Thanks man.
I will say that I'm confident in where BTC will be 3-5 years from now. Adoption continues to increase. Infrastructure continues to build.
I don't know where the bottom is and I'm probably not a good enough trader to hit it with a buy, but I'm happy with buying in on stairsteps down. My M2/adoption analysis tells me that BTC should be worth quite a bit more in 2020. If it's $2300 by then, let's say, I don't really care if I bought at $279 or $350 or $500. My time horizon for holding may be longer than most, so that outlook may not be worth considering for short-term traders.
89.
Post 9094226 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
What the fuck just happened???
90.
Post 9094287 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
What the fuck just happened???
The ~1M$ sell wall on stamp has been broken.
I wasn't paying attention at the time. Did it get puiled? Or bought?
91.
Post 9094841 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
http://bitcoinpricelive.com/chinese-bitcoins-crash-market/Did I miss any discussion of this article? Looks like kind of a reverse Willy hypothesis. It would certainly be one explanation for what looks like downward manipulation.
92.
Post 9095883 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
why would he cash out in one go. If it was me I would do it gradually, more profit :s
and/or off exchange
93.
Post 9095968 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Doesn't look like 300 will hold on stamp
94.
Post 9096074 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Doesn't look like 300 will hold on stamp
So before I go to sleep.
What does everyone think is the motivation for this guy sticking 27000 bitcoins in a big ask wall?
Is he trying to stifle any move upwards (otc sale perhaps?) or encourage panic selling into bid walls that belong to him further down so he can accumulate coins?
Or is this a bearish guy who simply wants to sell his coins. 27k seems ludicrously excessive and a terrible way of going about selling.
Theories?
Well, it's clearly not the best way to sell to maximize profit.
On the other hand, could be somebody just wants to take their $9 million and live the rest of their life on an island. That is plenty, I would think.
The thing that makes me think it's unlikely that somebody is just cashing out? They would have started with about $360,000 when they bought in. My guess is that most people who would have $360,000 liquid enough to put into BTC would either not need to run with the $9mm right now, or at least they would be savvy enough to avoid selling in a way that is so sub-optimal.
It's really hard to imagine the rationale, unless it's the reverse Willy bot
http://bitcoinpricelive.com/chinese-bitcoins-crash-market/
95.
Post 9096092 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Doesn't look like 300 will hold on stamp
So before I go to sleep.
What does everyone think is the motivation for this guy sticking 27000 bitcoins in a big ask wall?
Is he trying to stifle any move upwards (otc sale perhaps?) or encourage panic selling into bid walls that belong to him further down so he can accumulate coins?
Or is this a bearish guy who simply wants to sell his coins. 27k seems ludicrously excessive and a terrible way of going about selling.
Theories?
Well, it's clearly not the best way to sell to maximize profit.
On the other hand, could be somebody just wants to take their $9 million and live the rest of their life on an island. That is plenty, I would think.
The thing that makes me think it's unlikely that somebody is just cashing out? They would have started with about $360,000 when they bought in. My guess is that most people who would have $360,000 liquid enough to put into BTC would either not need to run with the $9mm right now, or at least they would be savvy enough to avoid selling in a way that is so sub-optimal.
It's really hard to imagine the rationale, unless it's the reverse Willy bot
http://bitcoinpricelive.com/chinese-bitcoins-crash-market/(Or, has already been postulated, it's an attempt to move the market.)
96.
Post 9096345 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
And look what happens to the price, instantly, when the wall comes down.
97.
Post 9096542 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
The Next 12 Hours Are Critical For BitcoinTM
98.
Post 9096831 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Holy shit. I walk away for 5 minutes...
99.
Post 9097144 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Everyone is way too happy.
Mr manipulator is fucking with your heads.
He probably bought this pittance and now we rejoice.
Though this is probably what all the last rallies were too.
Argh.
I wish I could btm you instead of +1
They gonna get that on BCT soon?
100.
Post 9097203 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Everyone is way too happy.
Mr manipulator is fucking with your heads.
He probably bought this pittance and now we rejoice.
Though this is probably what all the last rallies were too.
Argh.
I wish I could btm you instead of +1
British Tennis Membership?
"marking" with bitmark (BTM). New feature on the Polo trollbox. It's pretty sweet. Check the announcements on Polo and just watch the trollbox a little.
101.
Post 9097268 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
idk what polo is.
Anyway....
The next 17 pages of this thread are critical
Poloniex.com
102.
Post 9097302 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
idk what polo is.
Poloniex exchange
We don't talk about alts here, it scares the natives.
Oops. sorry!
103.
Post 9097497 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
what the hell? again? jumping all over.
104.
Post 9097632 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Balance to be pulled in 3...2...1....
105.
Post 9097739 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
It seems that people just refuse to sell at these levels now
expect shroomie
So .45 BTC sold into the wall...pfft
106.
Post 9097877 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
How many do I want at $300? Got plenty of time to make a decision...unless he pulls AGAIN.
107.
Post 9098503 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Somebody needs to make this into a tee shirt:
108.
Post 9098556 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I admit I am completely surprised that the wall hasn't been pulled.
109.
Post 9098562 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I picked up 2 just now. What was the immediate aftermath of the 2013 GoxWall?
You shoulda asked right BEFORE buying, not AFTER!
110.
Post 9098825 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
How the hell am I supposed to get any sleep tonight?
111.
Post 9098833 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
And...how many more to buy @300?
112.
Post 9098857 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Hell, 1300 or so bought in a minute about ten minutes back
113.
Post 9109639 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
Maybe he was "just stupid" maybe he was "panic selling" or maybe the guy took some mushrooms and felt like selling? or maybe overlord Xenu ordered him to sell...Maybe a unicorn rogered him until he sold
Maybe the Bitcoins became self aware and sold themselves.
That he was just stupid and decided to make a stupid sell move I do not buy personally.
Let's face it. The bulls have made a bullish story about it, the bears have made a bearish story about it. The most interesting thing will be the trend over the next fortnight
The Next Two Weeks Are Critical For Bitcoin
TM
114.
Post 9109794 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
You would know! You are Adam The Wall ObserverTM!!!
115.
Post 9111529 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.
"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."
The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.
Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it was obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.
Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.
The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...
Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.
That is probably the best potentially rational explanation I've seen.
Of course, it's possible that it was not a rational act, but this is a damn good take.
116.
Post 9111663 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction
This. I think you'll find the $300 ask was posted almost exactly at 01.00 UTC.
It's possible it was the target for a much larger deal that was going through or futures contract settlement time, perhaps even being targetted since July to have price at $300 on that day and time. Looked a lot like options expiry time manipulation often seen in the commodities markets.
Another great point
117.
Post 9111749 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
I'm not sure it is somehow simpler to assume that an irrational actor cost themselves millions of dollars, but OK.
118.
Post 9123543 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
I don't mind missing the Ripple train. I wish Ripple investors all the success in the world with their investment. I think there are tons of opportunities and I don't feel compelled to recognize or take a chance on all of them.
119.
Post 9123891 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
Is there any way to see which ignore lists I've made?
Would be kinda cool to know.
120.
Post 9124289 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
That fork word scares me. Can we call it something nicer, like a pony?
Confirmed.And how about "Ripple." Doesn't that sound nice?
There is NO WAY I will EVER see or hear the word "Ripple" and NOT think about The Grateful Dead.
121.
Post 9124725 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
Bitcoin funds: that is where the bitcoin money is. Managing them, of course, not buying their shares.
Yeah, I'm sure that in 2002 there was some intern at Morgan Stanley who created a similarly fictional sell sheet on Lucent Technologies and why I should buy it at $70/share. Somewhere in 2002, there was somebody a lot more informed than me who looked at that sell sheet and chuckled just about as hard as I'm chuckling at BTC $4,291,060.....
122.
Post 9136409 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
Interesting point you make, JayJuanGee. What happened to the bear trolls?
We may be higher than we were 72 hours ago, but even at $354 or so right now, we are lower than we've been in a while--basically 11 months. It seems almost inconceivable to me that a 10% bump (yet to be sustained for a week) has caused the vocal bears to hibernate the way they have in the last couple of days.
But they are largely gone! Was this part of the orchestration? Were they rented/purchased accounts?
123.
Post 9148387 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Anyone with half a brain and is aware of anything outside of the blinders that most people tend to wear know that the correction is comming and it will be plenty painful for many. Most retirements will go up in flames, and it will kill those near retirement or in it right now. Of course, I have a hard time feeling bad for they are the ones who pushed for the garbage that has or will get us into this mess.
Regular people who are going to be negatively affected and the victims did NOT push for any of this. There is a small number of rich people who mostly have driven this bullshit irresponsibilities and caused this situation through their ongoing greed and abuse of power and failure and refusal to properly contribute to society... a few very rich leaches, in other words.
co-signed, vuduchyld
124.
Post 9158000 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Wait a minute...so is the weekend critical for BitcoinTM or is it not?
125.
Post 9160237 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Just catching up, Adam.
Really sorry to hear it. Hope y'all can work shit out.
126.
Post 9178952 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
In a couple of hours, we are likely to have 6 of 7 green candles completed on the daily look
127.
Post 9190198 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
t-5 to 400.
Yeah, too close now to not hit it.
When we hit $400, that will mean that we've had a 42% move in EIGHT DAYS by my quick math.
128.
Post 9190243 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
What the fuck was THAT? Did my eyes deceive, or did somebody just dump 1000 or so to keep us under the important psychological $400 barrier?
Sorry, but you would have to be DAFT or manipulative to do that.
129.
Post 9190290 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
What the fuck was THAT? Did my eyes deceive, or did somebody just dump 1000 or so to keep us under the important psychological $400 barrier?
Sorry, but you would have to be DAFT or manipulative to do that.
Yes. The usual asshats who do everything they can to stop us from going up. Surprised?
I probably shouldn't be surprised, but admittedly I am a little shocked that anybody would jump in front of this train at this time. Maybe at $420 or $430, but trying to cock block $400 is just pure psychological warfare.
130.
Post 9190387 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
What the fuck was THAT? Did my eyes deceive, or did somebody just dump 1000 or so to keep us under the important psychological $400 barrier?
Sorry, but you would have to be DAFT or manipulative to do that.
Yes. The usual asshats who do everything they can to stop us from going up. Surprised?
I probably shouldn't be surprised, but admittedly I am a little shocked that anybody would jump in front of this train at this time. Maybe at $420 or $430, but trying to cock block $400 is just pure psychological warfare.
Or maybe it's the best place to do a large sell for minimum slippage
Yeah, that might make sense. I mean, it caused $7 in slippage as it was. I'd rather slip from $429 to $422, myself!
131.
Post 9190579 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Gotta say, that article seems incredibly misguided to me.
I think BTC might have issues with confirmation time right now that prevent a ton of in-store user adoption, but the long-term important advantage that BTC has, in my view, is transaction cost. Apple isn't going to reduce transaction cost one iota for anybody in the chain, from what I can tell, but somebody pleae correct me if I am wrong.
For ordering online for next-day ship, fo airline tickets, for anything that doesn't require immediate change-of-possession, there is a 4%+ advantage to using BTC.
I just wish somebody would integrate a BTC wallet with gasoline pumps and come up with a way for me to put gas in my car while saving that 4%+, then split that savings with the merchant.
Apple just provides a slicker interface for using the same system of usury.
132.
Post 9190677 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Gotta say, that article seems incredibly misguided to me.
I think BTC might have issues with confirmation time right now that prevent a ton of in-store user adoption, but the long-term important advantage that BTC has, in my view, is transaction cost. Apple isn't going to reduce transaction cost one iota for anybody in the chain, from what I can tell, but somebody pleae correct me if I am wrong.
For ordering online for next-day ship, fo airline tickets, for anything that doesn't require immediate change-of-possession, there is a 4%+ advantage to using BTC.
I just wish somebody would integrate a BTC wallet with gasoline pumps and come up with a way for me to put gas in my car while saving that 4%+, then split that savings with the merchant.
Apple just provides a slicker interface for using the same system of usury.
Work in progress:
http://andyschroder.com/BitcoinFluidDispenser/WOW! Super incredibly cool!!!
133.
Post 9190699 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Gotta say, that article seems incredibly misguided to me.
I think BTC might have issues with confirmation time right now that prevent a ton of in-store user adoption, but the long-term important advantage that BTC has, in my view, is transaction cost. Apple isn't going to reduce transaction cost one iota for anybody in the chain, from what I can tell, but somebody pleae correct me if I am wrong.
For ordering online for next-day ship, fo airline tickets, for anything that doesn't require immediate change-of-possession, there is a 4%+ advantage to using BTC.
I just wish somebody would integrate a BTC wallet with gasoline pumps and come up with a way for me to put gas in my car while saving that 4%+, then split that savings with the merchant.
Apple just provides a slicker interface for using the same system of usury.
No, but here's what they can do, get a cut of the transaction fees and pay 'interest'
They will never get their handcuffs on my bank account.
By the way, this is probably a stupid question, but are there any BTC wallets that can be used on a mobile that are equipped with NFC? That might be kinda helpful.
134.
Post 9190829 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Gotta say, that article seems incredibly misguided to me.
I think BTC might have issues with confirmation time right now that prevent a ton of in-store user adoption, but the long-term important advantage that BTC has, in my view, is transaction cost. Apple isn't going to reduce transaction cost one iota for anybody in the chain, from what I can tell, but somebody pleae correct me if I am wrong.
For ordering online for next-day ship, fo airline tickets, for anything that doesn't require immediate change-of-possession, there is a 4%+ advantage to using BTC.
I just wish somebody would integrate a BTC wallet with gasoline pumps and come up with a way for me to put gas in my car while saving that 4%+, then split that savings with the merchant.
Apple just provides a slicker interface for using the same system of usury.
If anything Apple has proven historically that people are willing to pay a considerably high premium for ease of use (or even perceived ease of use).
Absolutely, you are correct. They will. But I don't see that as a threat to a blockchain-oriented solution. Consumers may very well be happy to pay, but ultimately, what goes on behind the scenes will migrate towards lower cost solutions, IMO.
In other words, Apple Pay could end up being the gateway to something more efficient.
135.
Post 9190861 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Signing off before we drop from 400.08! Bye!
136.
Post 9191546 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Personally, I believe that bitcoin is NOT going to win in the short-term merely on it's payment system and low costs (though in the long run, bitcoin will provide a lot of competition regarding costs), and more savvy persons (like you and me and several other bullish-oriented posters in this thread) are going to realize that bitcoin holds much more value (than centralized systems, such as apple pay) because of its decentrailzation, flexibility and its store of value and we are NOT (hopefully) going to get distracted by mere ease of use framings... even though many of us alsolikely wished that BTC were easier to use in a variety of ways (yet we understand that ease of use will likely improve with time).
Totally agree
137.
Post 9205865 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Prof Jorge,
This is for you:
The Math Behind Bitcoin.
I wonder if Satoshi will win the Nobel prize one day?
EDIT: Meanwhile,
serious mainstream publication has shifted their perception of bitcoin from libertarian and criminal activities to how the financial industry can innovate from the blockchain technology.
What is the date on that Economist article? I couldn't find it
Edit: September 12th
138.
Post 12859631 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
Is it just me, or does it look like nobody wants to sell right now? Observing that wall....jeez.
139.
Post 12869340 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Wow...my quick calculations are that bitcoin has gone from 302 to 394, roughly a 30% rise, in the last 62 hours.
140.
Post 12869691 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
It's so tempting. Taking a nice profit now would be the rational thing to do. But we may be dealing with something irrational.
Yes, we may
141.
Post 12869705 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Wow...my quick calculations are that bitcoin has gone from 302 to 394, roughly a 30% rise, in the last 62 hours.
you had to calculate that?
Yeah, in my head. It probably took less time than it did for you to type your question.
142.
Post 12873428 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Wow...SO glad I'm a HODLER and not a trader.
This volatility must be stomach-churning for anybody who is concerned about short-term price.
We just dumped from 420 to 380 (and still moving?) in about 40 minutes!
143.
Post 12873595 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
OMG we're all going to die!!!
eventually...
144.
Post 12873629 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
This time of the day yesterday, there was a pullback on big volume. Not quite as steep of a price move, and not quite as much volume.
Starting about an hour from now, then again in 15 hours, we might see jumps.
145.
Post 12873655 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Some stoner spent the past month driving the price up just so he could see it reach 420.
post of the day!
146.
Post 12875084 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Probably a stupid question, but...
Is there a significant amount of arbitrage between Huobi and Bitfinex? The difference is about $50. It wouldn't seem like it would take much to buy on Bitfinex, sell on Huobi, wash, rise, repeat.
147.
Post 12875443 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Probably a stupid question, but...
Is there a significant amount of arbitrage between Huobi and Bitfinex? The difference is about $50. It wouldn't seem like it would take much to buy on Bitfinex, sell on Huobi, wash, rise, repeat.
You gotta think about the fiat part.
If you want to arb between US and China you are also trading USD and CNY.
Depending on what you want to do and up to which volume it could get quite complicated.
Would you have to go back to fiat every time, though? Couldn't you:
--deposit dollars in bitfinex
--buy bitcoin
--transfer bitcoin to a Huobi bitcoin wallet/account
--sell bitcoin on Huobi for CNY
-------------oh. nvm.
148.
Post 12885831 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
This dump is on a 23 hour cycle. It was an hour earlier yesterday than the day before.
So strange.
149.
Post 12885836 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Huobi now a $50 premium over stamp! WTF.
150.
Post 12886968 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
everyone log in and think really really hard as to whether you should buy or sell 468.0 USD / BTC
As of right now, I would not buy OR sell at 468. Too much volatility, not enough clarity.
151.
Post 12903319 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
The Huobi premium is down to about $15-16. Was as high as $50. Most of the last week, it has been $20 or more.
Weekend bleed? Buying opportunity?
152.
Post 12932746 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
I find it interesting that the Huobi premium over Bitstamp is now something like $11 or $12. Last week it was $20-25 with moments of $40-50.
153.
Post 12944137 (copy this link) (by vuduchyld) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Man, what a whipsaw. My neck is going to break just watching the price go up and down so damn fast.
