All posts made by Bicmac1973 in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 9096636 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Don't bother God, ask Nemesis.

2.
Post 9123621 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
Huh? He is just making a proposal to extend the protocol to allow more transactions per block. Everyone will need new clients to make it work. But where is the destructive effect? Or am I too rational regarding your post?
3.
Post 11599227 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Adopting BTC as national currency would be suicide for Greece. Their problem is not that the Euro inflation is too high, but it is too low. Bitcoin is deflationary in the long term, so their debts would explode, when BTC price rises.
4.
Post 11599920 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Adopting BTC as national currency would be suicide for Greece. Their problem is not that the Euro inflation is too high, but it is too low. Bitcoin is deflationary in the long term, so their debts would explode, when BTC price rises.
That would be contrary to the aforementioned Gresham's Law. I'd indulge you to read it here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_lawThe undervalued currency would (in this case) be the EUR. That means the debt in EUR will be lowered as the BTC would go up and finally eliminated when BTC reaches a high rate. Such an experiment is -of course- non applicable on a country under a sovereign coalition, so we can only assume here (both me and you) what we *think* it will happen.
You could also be right and me just typing nonsense here.

Thanks for the link, quite interesting lecture. My conclusion is that we talked about two different things: Gresham's Law is driven by the public, while the official legal tender is issued by more or less state-controlled institutions. It may well be possible that the greece public will adapt BTC as an unofficial currency for everyday use.
Yanis Varoufakis has an opinion regarding Bitcoin though. The following article is more than 2 years old and I am sure it has already been posted here. But maybe someone finds it interesting:
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/04/22/bitcoin-and-the-dangerous-fantasy-of-apolitical-money/
5.
Post 11600429 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Adopting BTC as national currency would be suicide for Greece. Their problem is not that the Euro inflation is too high, but it is too low. Bitcoin is deflationary in the long term, so their debts would explode, when BTC price rises.
That would be contrary to the aforementioned Gresham's Law. I'd indulge you to read it here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_lawThe undervalued currency would (in this case) be the EUR. That means the debt in EUR will be lowered as the BTC would go up and finally eliminated when BTC reaches a high rate. Such an experiment is -of course- non applicable on a country under a sovereign coalition, so we can only assume here (both me and you) what we *think* it will happen.
You could also be right and me just typing nonsense here.

Thanks for the link, quite interesting lecture. My conclusion is that we talked about two different things: Gresham's Law is driven by the public, while the official legal tender is issued by more or less state-controlled institutions. It may well be possible that the greece public will adapt BTC as an unofficial currency for everyday use.
Yanis Varoufakis has an opinion regarding Bitcoin though. The following article is more than 2 years old and I am sure it has already been posted here. But maybe someone finds it interesting:
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/04/22/bitcoin-and-the-dangerous-fantasy-of-apolitical-money/Your conclusion is right; Bitcoin cannot be issued by Greek Govt. (like i.e. Drachma). The idea though, is to legalize its use as a second currency and let Gresham's law take over. I know about Varoufakis thesis on the subject but it seems he somehow changed his ideas from 2013:
1.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/02/15/bitcoin-a-flawed-currency-blueprint-with-a-potentially-useful-application-for-the-eurozone/2.
http://www.grreporter.info/en/varoufakis_advisor_singaporean_bitcoin_company/12732Look, we're chasing dragons here. I know what I'm proposing is beyond the wildest imagination of the most insane speculator here (NLC?

) but; that's what we are here for... right?

I think he didn't change his ideas so much. In the first article, he again bashes Bitcoin for being deflationary, but proposes a more or less government-controlled "FT-Coin" altcoin with built-in inflation as a special feature. He is definitely not the first one with wet dreams about a tamed government- or bank-controlled bitcoin with freely configurable inflation rate though.
The second one is about a consultancy service he provided to a company in Singapore. It does not contain any remarks regarding his opinion related to Bitcoin.
Just let's hold our coins and see what happens ...
6.
Post 11601361 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
It may well be possible that the greece public will adapt BTC as an unofficial currency for everyday use.
If a large group adopts bitcoin now, at the current price or at a higher price, they would be sharing their wealth with the early adopters in proportion.
For example, if Greece adopted bitcoin, and 9 million BTC were circulating there with a value equivalent to 10'000 USD/BTC, then Satoshi's 1 million BTC would allow him to buy 10 billion USD worth of Greek property. Greece then would become 10 billion USD
poorer.
That is why no sane government should allow privately issued money: the people who issue it take wealth from those who use it.
When the government issues more money, the government is taking wealth from its citizens, so it is just another tax. It may be a stupid kind of tax, but people tolerate it because the government is supposed to give that wealth back as public services.
When the banks issue more money through fractional reserve lending, they are taking that wealth for themselves. Citizens should not tolerate that, but most do not understand what is going on. I have only a foggy notion myself...
I agree that widespread adoption of Bitcoin could cause damage the greek national economy, if it's not already a total loss. But people will act simply on self-interest and could gain huge profits. They do so, because banks, governments and all other economical actors do the same. And that may also be the reason, why many citizen accept that behaviour.
Bitcoin could get the preferred capital flight vehicle in Greece and it could be very hard to control. That may be good for Satoshi, who- and whereever he/she is.
7.
Post 11603492 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
And there comes the 7.5k sellwall again on BFX.
8.
Post 11603607 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
And there comes the 7.5k sellwall again on BFX.
Has this happened recently? Haven't seen a wall like this for a while.
I' ve seen it three times during the last week. But I think it was smaller then, about 5k.
9.
Post 11603618 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
And there comes the 7.5k sellwall again on BFX.
Has this happened recently? Haven't seen a wall like this for a while.
Hmm now that looks interesting. Me thinks we going up soon.
I had exactly the same thought. I'm just waiting for this whale to buy in his own wall to start a small rally.
10.
Post 11603805 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Could someone buy those 10k BTC from this guy on Bitfinex, please? I've misplaced my pocket.

11.
Post 11603968 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Such events usually coincide with DDOS attacks on bitcointalk. I wonder why the site is still reachable ...
12.
Post 11618053 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
When is arb going to smack bitstamp in the face? Too risky?
Bitstamp may still have trouble with deposits. No cash, no arb I guess.
13.
Post 11659540 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
As far as I can tell, the grexit -> BTC rally theory hinges on the idea that capital controls would immediately follow from Greece leaving the Euro behind. Doesn't make much sense to me - to escape capital controls, you'd need to get your funds out of reach of the Greek government/banking apparatus before capital controls were in place.
Not necessarily. Capital controls woul only affect bank transfers to foreign accounts and cash outs. So bitcoins could be bought in Greece to circumvent capital controls.
14.
Post 11744559 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
I'm afraid, empowering has it right. ANY country's exit from the Eurozone means the chain has broken. EUR is not backed by anything more than the "agreement" of the members of the Eurozone that THIS will be their currency. Unfortunately, most people don't see this. Everybody sees a country that the Mass Media has been blaming for being "lazy", "thieves", "crooks" in order to cover the most undeniable truth since the beginning of the crisis.
The Greek Debt wasn't the PEOPLE'S debt! It was the BANK'S debt. With a political decision (after mr Papandreou stepped down, mr Papadimos was the PM that the troika has APPOINTED as the country's ruler) they transferred it to toxic bonds that shortly after they were bought from the country's reserves. Social security, hospitals, public companies, etc. They took fresh money and left us with toxic bonds! AND NOBODY SAID ANYTHING!
It's a moral issue for ANY European to understand that this is not a war between Germany or France with Greece. It's the moment in time for EVERYONE to understand who the real enemy is. Who the thieves are! Who brought a country to its knees. IT WAS THE BANKSTERS!
Oh, I've mentioned it before, but let me repeat it once more: If your neighbour's house is on fire, better worry for it comes for your house too.
Exactly this. I am from Germany and pay a lot of taxes to refinance German banksters who have lend money to greece banksters to lend money to Greece companies to buy products from German companies they cannot afford. This is mainly done to generate demand for German products in Greece and elsewhere, because the German workforce is underpaid and does not generate sufficient domestic demand. This is Banksters Europe, not the Europe of the people, as it should be.
15.
Post 11839268 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
Just Wow!

I love Bitcoins.

16.
Post 11844574 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
There seems to come another push, but I am too much of a coward to throw a long position on it.
17.
Post 11845260 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
not a bearish post for the last ten pages
BTC DEAD CAT BOUNCE BULL TRAP DONT BE A BAGHOLDER GOING DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS THEN GOING BELOW ZERO!!!
lol there. Now forreal, the 3 month chart is looking parabolic.
I am already conditioned to hit the "Ignore" button, when certain keywords show up in a post. It took a split second to see the sarcasm ...
18.
Post 11845348 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
Regarding the LTC ponzi scheme: the question is if this guy will really cash out to RMB anytime soon. Personally I highly doubt it, because Chinese authorities will rip him to pieces, when this thing blows up. If I would be him, I would leave the country as soon as possible.
19.
Post 11845470 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
Regarding the LTC ponzi scheme: the question is if this guy will really cash out to RMB anytime soon. Personally I highly doubt it, because Chinese authorities will rip him to pieces, when this thing blows up. If I would be him, I would leave the country as soon as possible.
So that LTC run up and free fall was due to this ponzi or just the fact that they cashed out the LTC ?
The run up was very likely caused by the ponzi scheme, because the LTC amount was insane. It is speculated that the LTC was dumped for BTC (IMHO very probable). Now the question is what will happen with the BTC stash this guy 'earned'. In one of the articles posted above they speculate that the BTC are dumped for RMB on the Chinese exchanges. Personally I do not believe that. The guy would be crazy if he would stay in mainland China.
20.
Post 11851258 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
If you're not all in RIGHT NOW, you're doing it wrong.
All In, seatbelts fastened and ready for liftoff.

21.
Post 12822832 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
Look at LTC!
22.
Post 12822905 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
23.
Post 12840721 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
...
Disclaimer: I seem to be the only one who thinks this, and I don't trade.
No, you are not. I also see the possibility for another move upwards, when the current triangle resolves. I do trade, but I am too much of a Coward to take the bet and go Long right now.
24.
Post 12856356 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
Huobi is drawing a nice little bull flag. I like it.
25.
Post 12868669 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
I'm almost expecting hyperexponential prices, we're supposed to have correction soon. Look at the damn charts.
It is about time for a massive correction. I feel terrible ... not because I have lost money, but because I permanently feel that I should have won more, that I need to take higher risks ... my greed starts to kill me. I have to close my longs and chill!
26.
Post 12884742 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Nice fight with that triangle. Beer and popcorn is ready ...
27.
Post 12885594 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
China has not completed the triangle yet.
28.
Post 12885632 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
NOW the real dump starts ...
29.
Post 12885656 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
This triangle is really nasty!
30.
Post 12885699 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Man finish it off, I have wife and kids!

31.
Post 12885733 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Now it breaks down. Just in time, I started to go crazy... need more popcorn.
32.
Post 12896701 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
It seems that the finex trading engine has stopped ... at least my orders are not executed. can someone confirm that?
33.
Post 12896707 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
It seems that the finex trading engine has stopped ... at least my orders are not executed. can someone confirm that?
False alert, now they went through.
34.
Post 12915056 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
i hope price will stabilize right now after falling
It is possible to stabilize in the $350 to $420 territory, but it is very doubtful that such stabilization will occur in the short term. Simply, there is way too much volume currently, and that demonstrates that there is a bit of a battle going on in this price range.
I think that the volume has to go down before prices will stabilize, which could mean that prices return to the $350 to $420 price range, but still the direction remains a bit indeterminative.
I tend to believe that if prices are going to stabilize in the near term (within the next month or two), they will stabilize a bit above $420 rather than below $350. That's just my hunch based on the overall history and seeming price dynamics, and absent any major developments in the news, whether FUD or not..
+1
well vol appears to be going down a little bit, big move coming soon.
There's a rather large triangle that should break soon, but it keeps narrowing instead.
The BB are are also getting narrower, should break one way or another within 2 hours.
Seems to break to the upside on huobi.
35.
Post 12932756 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Huobi API down again?
36.
Post 12932818 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Huobi API down again?
Seems to be not just the API but
www.huobi.com is also not reachable. (Connection timed out)
37.
Post 12936373 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
LTC/CNY on OKCoin just went full retard hitting 1CNY with ~1.5Mio Volume

My chart says 11 CNY, 1 CNY indeed. Seems like margin calling from leveraged bull there.
For Btc: Volume drying up, Decision time. Betting on down, with 1D turning red in coming days, going in the low 300's.
That would be reasonable, if BTC would be a freely moving market ... but it is not. Shorts are up, longs are very low and market makers tend to provoke margin calls. My bet is that the ask walls will disappear magically once the triangle breaks and the price will shoot up. Just my personal opinion based on personal sentiment, do not bet your money on it!
38.
Post 12938219 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
I say: Shit is about to hit the fan. Going down.
... and you are absolutely right.
39.
Post 12941597 (copy this link) (by Bicmac1973) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
The $350 wall on Finex is strong. Somebody gets burned there

Or someone wants to drive traders into shorts.
