Sorry for OT, but how can I vote the Poll at the top of the page? Thank You

Right, you'll have to share your prediction openly so everyone can laugh at you.   

Feels good seeing $11,xxx considering we went sub $6,000 not too long ago. We’re a long way from a new ATH but this is good. Anybody think we’ll see $13,xxx in March?

From what I have read they just made up it to conclusion that they are holding of any new regulations for cryptocurrecencies as it is not yet hurting any financial situation of a country. People have assumed that this news coming from the G20 is the reason of the sudden rise of Bitcoin's price. When they are forgetting that we are still on a down trend and 8,500$ is just a resistance under the EMA 50 moving average. The 14% price increase might still end up a bull trap as the volume is lagging.

Posting this on page 20003 on the off chance that it ends up on page 20000 due to post deletions.
Hey I can dream can’t I?

Damn!
I missed the 20000th page posting fun! Ok, now I want 20k$ soon!
damn

There's a first rule of bitcoin, which is to talk about bitcoin, but don't talk about your qty of bitcoin.  

It is a theme that has been repeated in this thread to a decent degree through the years, and comes from fight club...   

On the interwebs, you can get away with revealing a bit more about your BTC (or crypto or fiat) holdings, without punishment, unless you are hacked, of course. 

In the real world, you may be punished more if you reveal too many of those kinds of financial holding(s) details. 

By the way, I have a location in which I have several computers running bitcoin tickers from various angles (usually it is windows of bitcoinity.org and bitcoinwisdom.com), and sometimes if I have a visitor, the computer display triggers us to begin to talk about bitcoin.  Most visitors will not ask too many personal details about my holdings, but some folks will come out with direct questions, like "how many bitcoins do you have?".. hahahahhahahaha...   

When I first got those kinds of personal financial questions, I stumbled a bit or I might have said something that was somewhat responsive, but later I realized that I needed a better and less disclosing response.  These days, I ultimately tell them how ridiculous is their question, and depending on the audience, the way that I say it will vary; however, almost all of them seem to understand that their question was not appropriate.  My most frequently recent response will be to ask them how much gold they have or how much money is in their checking account, and from my counter-question the vast majority will realize the inappropriateness of their question.  There are a few folks who do not get it, and most of them do not have any money in their checking account, so they are not sensitive to revealing their lack of money.    Go figure?  So probably, the more money (in this case bitcoins) you accumulate, the more prudent it will be to convolute your answers, if any, to those kinds of inquiries.

I am getting the impression that you are very skeptical about BTC, and perhaps you are correct that bitcoin might be in a long level of flat and downward trends - but your assumption is no where near a given.  This is not 2014/2015, so price dynamics could play out differently.. on the other hand, 2019 is not necessarily a long time to wait for price action, and it is only 9 months away.

If you are sensing that you may not want to study into bitcoin or accumulate or anything like that in the coming year, then likely you already have a BTC stash that you feel is sufficient in the event that BTC prices go up from here - and sure it is possible that you have other things going on in your life that you feel deserve more of your attention, as compared with bitcoin.

Other folks may be more inclined, during this particular possible lull period to continue to spend decent resources accumulating bitcoin, in anticipation that a upwards price run is going to take place, even if the upwards price run is not imminent, it will pay off to continue to reasonable make continued accumulation efforts during this period.

If you have a lower price point in which you will buy in such as $5k or $3k or even $1.5k, you may or may not get such opportunity to buy in at that point, but it is good to personally have some outline regarding where you would consider to be good buying opportunities and also to be sufficiently content if the price does not go down to your buy target points.

In one sense, it would make sense a decent amount of sense if you don't feel very passionate about bitcoin or very strongly about wanting to accumulate bitcoin, then you may well not be very invested in the concept (but only luke warm about it), so in that regard, it would make sense that you would not even feel any kind of inclination to share your knowledge with others because you merely view bitcoin as blasé.... and something that may or may not happen or some thing that may or may not be important.. and that is your viewpoint, which likely differs from guys who actively participate in forums like this one, even during down price periods.  For different folks, there are different strokes.

O.k. sure.  None of us really know what is going to go on exactly; however, I consider myself similar to you in having had formed a tentative framework for what I believe is going to happen in terms of short term or long term, and surely I have difficulties attempting to predict on any kind of meaningful basis except having decent considerations that bitcoin is a good long term investment and it is good to accumulate bitcoin, and even if there is short term noise, the fundamentals of bitcoin continue to get stronger and stronger.

Yes, you seem to have been through quite a few volatile periods, and you seem more pessimistic than me about long term bitcoin fundamentals - even though you seem to have a decently long term following the space.  I gave you a merit for your explanation anyhow, in spite of your "lackings."... hahahahaha

Of course, this concept is fundamental to any volatile investment, but people still use it in differing ways.  I use it to consider that I am not leveraging or betting and that I have my living expenses covered for 6 months into the future with my cash flow, then any extra I can invest into bitcoin.  Over time, that can add up to a lot of money, especially once the bitcoin ends up appreciating 30x... So maybe starting off with a modest $10k ends up in the $300k territory... so motivations can change, even though the initial $10k did not seem to be very much the $300k gets into Lambo territory.. and some folks start to think,.... " I could have had a lambo for $10k?" when the price starts to go down, we can see where there can be emotions... and how much was initially invested can get lost in the shuffle.

I learn about about myself and about my own stance by attempting to interact on ideas.. but sure, sometimes, just reading can be insightful, too.

With apologies, well, to all, we were riffing last night on what the Linnaean classification for certain terms might be.
Things are somewhat hazy, but I remember thus far

Capitulator ad ursos - weak hand
Adsiduus ad bellos - taxpayer
Emptor fomoensis - noob investor
Anima elota - rekt
Ferox tenator - hodler

eg:

Ferox Tenator Nervosa
Ferox Tenator Zennist
Ferox Tenator Testicular-Grande
Ferox Tenator Capitulatos
Ferox Tenator Nihilismos

?

Edit: I suck at this whole latin/taxonomy thing. You guys get the idea. Not deleting otherwise nonsense-post.

Seems dangerous to play around with margin... and there are a lot of ways that you could get locked out.. especially when bitcoin can be very unforgiving to shorters.

I personally think that the best way to attempt to accumulate more bitcoins when the price is going down is to sell small amounts of BTC as the price goes up and to used that generated money to buy back as the price goes down.  If you did not already sell some bitcoin when the price was higher a while back then it seems too late to sell at this point.  Therefore, your decision at this point would be to buy more bitcoin at various points on the way down, and then be prepared to sell small amounts at various points the next time the BTC price goes up (presuming that the price is going to go up sooner or later).  

Accordingly, it is o.k. to over-leverage a little bit on the buying of bitcoin on the way down in order that you will not feel so bad to sell some of that accumulated amounts off on the way up.  The tricky question is that the price points and the amounts for buying on the way down and selling on the way up are going to be different for each person and takes some practice to find comfortable price points and amounts that are customized to your own situation (your view points, risk tolerance, financial situation and timeline).

It is very likely that bitcoin is a paradigm changer, so it is not easy for us to envision the extent to which system are going to be changed by it or not.. .... so even though we might say that it is kind of like one thing or another - the telephone, internet.. blah blah blah.. there could also be a war over this bitcoin changing kind of influence, and I don't know how any of us could reasonably assert that a war is not changing any current systems that we have in place... so perhaps our views of the fundamental possibilities of bitcoin are quite different, and I don't claim to know exactly where bitcoin is going to take banking and government... and perhaps it will be a BIG NOTHING, as you seem to imply.

Well, maybe a lot of us have become spoiled from the returns of crypto, but I still think that if you are getting, on average, more than 6% per year appreciation on a long term investment, you are doing good... in that regard, bitcoin has been performing way beyond normal average investments.. and seems likely to continue to perform quite well, on average, if you have a 5-10 years timeline.

We have a couple of weeks of dead cat bounce before the final capitulation

Was it from falling, or from that prolonged squawk?

Solidity is a bug in Ethereum

Let's see if it's only a dip or a bigger correction. Much needed imho.

Beartrolls detected 

An "overdue" that might not happen.

Pee pare ur selfie for UP, too...... NOT merely for down.     

Well we all knew deep down that 7700 wasnt going to hold and when it broke it would get ugly.  

I was waiting to see if massive buying (large volume similar to the peak of the mini bubble this summer) occurred once we had a large crash like yesterday, and sadly we didnt get the requisite volume for me to deploy my last fiat stash.

The really strong support is at 6500 so hopefully the Bargain Boyz will step in and load their trucks with massive volume at that level and end this mini bear market inside our bull market that started in Dec. 2018, because this so far has been a dud and the true Bargain Boyz have not arrived yet.

A 6500 dollar bottom would still be extremely bullish as we were in the 3-4k range earlier this year. That is where the true run to 100k starts imo and hopefully it happens sooner than later so we can be done with this mess created by the overzealous parabolic run this summer.

Looks like the bleeding has stopped from yesterday, for now at least. $10,000 seems far away now, I was taking that for granted.

October ends in a day and a half and it doesn't look like we are going to reach $16k any time soon. (by soon I mean in a week) Maybe it will be different in November. We may try 8k one more time. Hopefully this will be the last time.

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..




Referring to:




Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690

Hahahahaha

There are always folks wanting to predict down (or is it down before up?) in a bull market.

Go figuring ur lil selfies!!!!!!

 

Anyway, for me things are quite simple at the moment. Bear market is clear now. It's not the time to buy, just monitor, maybe even sell and buy back below 8k. There is nothing to indicate we break that white line. It is just gambling at this stage.

Posted 10 days ago.

I was talking about this 6.4k price, not surprised at all we went towards this price, thought it would be in December though.

Quite confident there is a bounce back from there though. It is a major and strong support.

The real test now (and also arguably the biggest test of BTC's life) will be the halvening.  If the price does not show very considerable strength in the next year, that would be a sign that the whole game has changed.

Unfortunately, the outcome will take around a year to define . As always, it will be a test of faith, so doubters should sell now (although better during the expected bounce to 7.5k) , and hodlers should find some other diversion for their interest !

I'm leaning the other way. I think this halving will have the biggest effect. After this one it'll be subtler and start to tail off.

There are more on and off ramps than ever and some of them like Bakkt and the Cash app alone have the potential to be several times bigger than the entirety of what went before. Chuck in inflation dropping to levels seen in conventional currencies and just over only 10% of all coins left to arrive in the next 120 years and that's a pretty darned potent combo.

Right, and stuff like "no movement till 2024 halving" is a rational opinion or assessment after such a dip? It's fear and panic disguised as staying calm. Maybe I made the mistake of assuming that the average person here is smarter than a monkey?

I don't think there'll ever be the same expansion in infrastructure meeting the same reduction in production again. It could well be a golden one off.

All of what you said confirms what I mentioned prior. There is no "winter", just inexperienced bears trying to use old-world TA on the new world and hope they see a few lines. Pathetic really, but I guess if you got nothing better to do it is what it is.

The trend is still clearly bearish, bro.

It's a bounce back. I think there will be another low soon around 6.5k and another bounce back towards 9k (nice one) for beginning of next year. But the trend clearly showing an ABC correction (zigzag) towards the 4k-ish direction, it would be silly to buy now, I'd rather wait until next year.

Of course there is always a possibility to break above 12k (that would mean 20k after that) but the probability of this scenario is very low right now.

Long term holders have nothing to worry about but that means very long term (2025 and after that), but for 2020 no reason to be optimistic. I will personally sell at 9k and wait for another buy point which would be around 4k next year.


PS: there is nothing "trolling" about calling bear trends. It is crystal clear the trend is bearish right now and will last for at least 6 months. 

Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. If only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Buying at 6.5k is certainly good for a short term profit. If not too greedy of course, I mean small profit like 20-25%, 6.5k is a very strong support for now.

About next year, "bouncing off 5.2k" well the ABC correction clearly shows we will go below 5k, but perhaps we will stay around 5.5k for a while but for me we definitely go below 5k at some point next year.
I am curious to see how 2020 unfolds. If this prediction becomes true then we'll use the same tools for 2021-2025.


About the chart posted by alevlaslo, I like it.




I like it because it confirms the bearish trend for 2020 but it's a more a long term prediction anyway which looks bullish. I am convinced Bitcoin price will be very good in 2025 but there should be a lot of blood in 2020 and 2021 which many holders losing hope.

I disagree. HAlving impact has been constant (in log terms)

I follow this model:
Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

first! it's over 9000!

Now I definitely agree with you here.  All of the talk of ATH due to halvening made it almost inevitable that we'd see a drop. If I've learned one thing with btc, it's that it'll do what everyone least expects.

Holy overreaction.

Thankfully 60 days till the Halvening and coins are cheap af.

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

If any any of you WOers consider selling just think: you HODLed during $20k peak, during $14k and $10k minipeaks. So why sell now?    Let's ride this thing down to 0 or get filthy rich. There is no 3rd option.

Nah..

The liquidity pullers will run out of liquidity to pull, and BTC will have nowhere but up to go from there..

The institutional investors will be out, and then we will see the true price of BTC without them..
I imagine the $$ USD will inflate massively from here also, so those effects should be seen after the institutional pullout..