All posts made by Newfeeling in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 6205549 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Additional options to have the repo government BTC marketm treat, but the long-term damage to the deep pockets that anyone can use, but this is the first time in the wrong hands, and / or stealing money from the currency in the attack. : Deterioration Wikipedia. As long as you do not trust the market to buy foreign currency not lose .., on the other hand, it is certain, or GS .. sometimes .. can not even run out of money ... and the inevitable price.
what
2.
Post 6223788 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?
I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project, and freedom to choose my research topics. And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.
I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time. I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why. But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)
As to "freedom to choose my research topics":
How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?
If Bitcoin is as important and/or valuable as we think it to be...having someone take the opposing side like this won't hurt. Spending hundreds of hours researching and scrutinizing something that some of us think will be worth trillions is peanuts in comparison, and in my opinion: a valuable deed on behalf of Prof Stolfi.
I'm all for going to the moon and such, but having regular reality checks from people like Prof. Stolfi keeps my belly kool-aid free and prevents my head from going too far up into my colon.
3.
Post 6236853 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).
No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable
Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value. A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability. Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice. The concept of rationality is debatable. But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.
We have a low probability of Bitcoin becoming an important store of value or used for international tranfers or online payments..
There is a low probability that it happens but the reward will indeed be huge if it does
A lot of traders make their trade then incite others to do the same trade by posting here
I like what that one dude said about buying bitcoin being akin to buying options with no expiry date. It changed my way of looking at things.
4.
Post 6236938 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).
No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable
Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value. A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability. Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice. The concept of rationality is debatable. But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.
That's true
provided this is a manageable part of an investment portfolio. It's not entirely unlike drawing to an outside strait or four cards to a flush in poker. You have a ~37% chance of tripling your money or more in a three way pot. I take that bet every time IF I have a bankroll big enough to handle the expected ~63% of hands it loses.
A more extreme example is a lottery ticket. If a lottery ticket costs two dollars, with a chance of winning of One in a Million with a payout of of $1M, then the expected return of any given lottery ticket is 50 cents. A terrible bet. But if that same lottery ticket with the same odds and the same payout cost 25 cents, it's a good deal, even if the chance of winning is extremely small. Just don't put a large percentage of your portfolio in lottery tickets.
I just had a chuckle imagining someone trying to martingale the lotto Lol. "I'm on a 16 week losing streak and i'm sitting on 65000 lotto tickets! I'm bound to win next week!"
5.
Post 6240079 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
DAT 153 BTC DUMP
6.
Post 6241561 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Huboi order book looking quite skinny too. and some big bids were pulled. not all roses.
Heck, the bulls already drinking champagne, so why would they worry?
A champagne shortage would worry me, but I'm a raging alcoholic so that's neither here nor there.
7.
Post 6242175 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Bitcoin to governments is like chicken pox to native Americans.
Let's not exaggerate. Bitcoin may be a terrible disease, and spreading it intentionally may be a heinous crime; but I don't think it can be compared to genocide.
Financially Transmitted Disease is a thing now? I'm guessing marriage and Amway are in the diagnostic manual?
8.
Post 6252191 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
9.
Post 6256204 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
10.
Post 6260319 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
You can stretch them again , use a different time period , change the colors , but no way you can get those too match.
I really don;t understand why people have this need of matching current events with previous ones in order to "see' the future.
http://i.imgur.com/WqS5nOa.jpg
11.
Post 6260414 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
I heard that the distribution of "unknown" mining pools has increased to current 30% from last Dec. 5% Is this true?
Could the increase be from China, with some political power, as rumored?
I agree China sets the price. But who of the Chinese set the price? Chinese capitalist who have back doors with PBOC? Or those school teenagers who are active in Chinese bitcoin forums?
Dons extremely tin foil gilded head armorThine chinese are using ASICs from thine cheap electronics production!
12.
Post 6260852 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
The rally could be due to this notice just posted to Huobi:
关于火币网恢复点卡充值方式的通知
时间 ：2014-04-17 13:10:09 来源： 火币网
尊敬的火币网用户：
为了解决非工作时间充值到账较慢的问题，火币网经过和点卡代理商协商后，我们将于今日17：00恢复点卡充值服务，支持所有主流银行充值，7*24小时即时到账。欢迎各位币友体验。
火币网运营部
2014.04.17
Notice on Huobi.com TOPUP recovery mode
Time :2014-04-17 13:10:09 Source: Huobi.com
Dear Huobi.com network users:
In order to solve the non-working hours recharge slower Daozhang problems after the Huobi and cards dealer network through negotiation, we will resume today 17:00 TOPUP services, supports all major banks recharge, 7 * 24 hours immediately to the account. Friends welcome you to experience the coins.
Huobi.com Operations
2014.04.17
(Google Translate, with "Fire currency/coin net" --> Huobi.com")
Hmmm looks like they're saying its banned, time to sell all my bitcoins.
THIS JUST CAME IN FROM THE PBOC!!!!!!!!
吃了阴茎
13.
Post 6261166 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
The rally could be due to this notice just posted to Huobi:
关于火币网恢复点卡充值方式的通知
时间 ：2014-04-17 13:10:09 来源： 火币网
尊敬的火币网用户：
为了解决非工作时间充值到账较慢的问题，火币网经过和点卡代理商协商后，我们将于今日17：00恢复点卡充值服务，支持所有主流银行充值，7*24小时即时到账。欢迎各位币友体验。
火币网运营部
2014.04.17
Notice on Huobi.com TOPUP recovery mode
Time :2014-04-17 13:10:09 Source: Huobi.com
Dear Huobi.com network users:
In order to solve the non-working hours recharge slower Daozhang problems after the Huobi and cards dealer network through negotiation, we will resume today 17:00 TOPUP services, supports all major banks recharge, 7 * 24 hours immediately to the account. Friends welcome you to experience the coins.
Huobi.com Operations
2014.04.17
(Google Translate, with "Fire currency/coin net" --> Huobi.com")
Hmmm looks like they're saying its banned, time to sell all my bitcoins.
THIS JUST CAME IN FROM THE PBOC!!!!!!!!
吃了阴茎
What the f*** with these google translates. Explain what it means in laymans terms or don't post please.
-facepalm-
14.
Post 6274853 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does
bear repeating
I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.
yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.
I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.
7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it? Did you have to retire it? Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?
It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.
15.
Post 6284701 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.
Oh! Wel, well, well...
It is decided, then.
In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.
LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the
'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life
Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa
[..]
I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here. Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...
[..]
Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway
(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible ;p) I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.
To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.
On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.
Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust. And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective. An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.
16.
Post 6285351 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Economics and TA are similar in that people who don't know the discipline dismiss it as not a valid field. We would never do this with physics, chemistry or even social sciences like etymology or history. Jorge is making a common mistake. It's not more complicated or nefarious than that.
I'd rather not lump Economics with TA.
With that said - TA seems to be different than the fields you mentioned. I don't discount the value of TA, but I think it's being highly abused and improperly applied.
Physics/Chemistry have very comprehensive foundations in both theory and practice that while not perfect, allow for consistently accurate and precise predictions to be made by anyone that's "well-versed" in the field - whereas TA can have scores of experts in the field making analyses that are as noisy as the charts being interpreted. Even a subject like quantum physics that's frustratingly nebulous and hard to comprehend has razor sharp theory surrounding the "hows" the game if not perhaps the "whys" - predictable unpredictability.
History and etymology on the other hand don't have that predictive/empirical power - but that's fine, because it hasn't been the intention of these fields to have it. The beauty of fields like these is that they're great at distilling the noise of past events getting it all to coalesce into a big picture that tells us where we are at the moment and how we got here. I think TA is in this camp and the TA dismissals that occur are a result of trying to make it fit in with the other camp.
TA is not the friend that tells you "Bro, if you finish that whole bottle of whiskey tonight, you're going to need to go to the hospital...tonight.".
TA is the friend that's sitting next to you in the hospital the next day telling you "Well, you finished the first half by 10:00 P.M. and by midnight you were wearing your underwear on your head pretending to be Sam Fisher with an empty bottle of Jack. You can't handle your drank."
17.
Post 6301460 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.
https://i.imgflip.com/894ba.jpg
18.
Post 6360190 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I have a doubt , please only respond if you know what youre talking about . I beleive that bitcoin to usd price is stucked cause of all the alts coins that are pulling it down , if bitcoin rises an 20% againts usd , all the coins rise as equals. If bitcoin falls all the coins falls againts usd.
The vast majority of alt-coins have their value determined by BTC value. With the exception of LTC and a handful of other alt-coins, there's no direct means of converting fiat into these without having purchased BTC or LTC first and then exchanging them for the alt-coins. In other words, if someone wants to buy an altcoin, they more likely than not will have to buy and sell through BTC to get there.
As with any other market, speculators will throw down money in related commodities/companies/goods whenever there's a rise in the value of the primary item. It's possible that alt-coins are somehow impairing BTC, but I don't think this is a valid reason.
19.
Post 6516957 (copy this link) (by Newfeeling) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
For some reason the round 450 scares me. I can't help but think that punic sells will start at this point because of people thinking it's a milestone.
PUNIC sells??? That would be breaking news indeed,
CARTHAGE ADOPTS BITCOIN! MOON TRAIN CONF1RM3D
http://hannibalofcarthage.yolasite.com/resources/hannibal346.jpg
