All posts made by uki in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 10426779 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
do you guys think sub $100 coins are still possible?
of course it is possible, as it is possible to return to $1000. The question is: what comes first?
2.
Post 16703443 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
good to see them writing about Bitcoin again.
Three interesting facts, in my opinion, to think of:
- Bitcoin’s daily volatility is now comparable to small cap equities (3.3%)
- the annualized volatility of Bitcoin’s daily returns (57% now) has nearly halved from mid-2014 to mid-2016, and daily price volatility is now similar to the volatility of oil
- one of the most appealing aspects of Bitcoin for institutional investors in our opinion is its low correlation to major asset classes.
3.
Post 16710603 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
The 1-week Bitcoin/$USD chart correction is nearing completion. That chart range started correcting around the end of July when the big dump-down from the 5180 Hobular high occured.
That correction also painted the handle onto the humungous 3-year cup and handle formation thats been forming since the 2013 China-driven $1200 ATH.
The timing of events seems to be pointing to a perfect storm towards the end of the year, possibly consisting of Lightning Network arrival, Segwit, BTC Developer & mining consensus putting previous confrontations to bed and an array of chart technicals going green. Things would then be in place for the Wrinklyboss ETF to turn up and light the touchpaper on the tinder pile.
-snip-
spot on
one caveat: fundamentally we don't know what will be the catalyst exactly, but any sort of conclusion of the "scaling" debate will do. Might even be a - lo and behold - successfull hardfork to unlimited
I am pretty sceptical regarding the application of TA to Bitcoin. With pumps & dumps in place, and mass speculation being the main driving force, you may paint pretty much any pattern on the charts and then deny it. I mean I wouldn't mind this cup and handle to play out as suggested, but I doubt it happens.
4.
Post 16821218 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
i just got off the phone with china.
900 is a real possibility
yep, that is an absolute game changer short time. We may give a shot a the top of 2016, that is close to $800. What will happen when we get there, not sure.
5.
Post 16991632 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Have a look on this log log plot and channel.
The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.
The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.
Data are from blockchain.info
-snip-
In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price incease, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.
I believe in that chart, and here comes some questions and a small favor
1. The favor : Could you please edit the chart with time scale to see when we can hit $10K and $1MM ?
2. I believe in "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes", what makes you sure that we will hit $10K and $1MM ?
Tech Analysis is no guarantee...
To 1. You see that there are two moves. One slow growth and sometimes hyberbolic to 2 characteristic maxima 35 and 1200. I tried to mark the 3rd in same distance, which is 80k. The run start to 80k is hard to find and so the 10k first hitting even harder...
2. alert is on only once the lower bound gets hurt
One more thing:
please google ted talk on the exponential function and watch the video.
The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.
6.
Post 16992231 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.
Yes. This is why it forms an S curve.
It only grows exponentially until it goes "vertical" and then it tapers off exponentially to the saturation point.
Luckily Bitcoin adoption is far from going vertical, let alone reaching saturation. Exponential growth a while longer is a reasonable expectation.
Well, that yet remains to be proven how reasonable assumption it is. Looking at the market cap, and looking at the prediction for the 2018, it means quite a lot of new money flowing into Bitcoin in the next two years. Not sure if the adoption will keep the necessary pace to achieve it.
7.
Post 16994944 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Not sure if I remember correctly, but I seem to recall price being down last black friday, while this one had a brief $9 pump.
I wouldn't forcefully look for a relation between things that are not related (as many do in this forum). Bitcoin doesn't care about black Fridays and alike, as currently what is mainly behind its move are the speculative pumps and dumps. I don't see much sense trying to relate such events to a particular day, because pumps happen independently from that, and thus, it is nearly impossible to say, there is a next black Friday coming the price will drop (or rise).
8.
Post 17001397 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?
Last chance to sell about 730$...its going down...
I pretty much think the same. Double top on the charts. That is pretty bearish. Correction would something to expect. Now the question is where it stops. Halving pump corrected all the way to $5xx handle, which would mean about 20-25% if we go down to the same levels. Why not?
9.
Post 17005186 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.
It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51%
https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.
So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?
None. There is no way we don't come out the other side of this without segwit and a stronger network ... maybe even we get less 'centralised' chinese domination of mining (up to now they have never exercised or exhibited any coordinated 'centralised' behaviour)
However, it will likely be a good opportunity to add in any downdrafts created by the FUD brigade.
I doubt the Chinese whales will give up their market share without a proper fight.
That is too lucrative for them to give it up easily. Therefore, I expect the story to play a bit longer than initially planned.
10.
Post 17010560 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
all I see right now
is a 6-months long cup and handle formation
How about double top with the lower second peak?
Is this a sole "contrarian view", or are there more who expect a proper correction right now?
11.
Post 17961408 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
Whoa, thanks for the link. Was wondering what had triggered the drop.
At these price levels, any news of that kind may induce the massive selling. The technical indicators are overheated and it would be healthy to cool them down a bit.
12.
Post 17966382 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
Nothing changes....
Moon, rocket, 10K, this is gentleman etc etc
Then.....
Dump dump.
There is nothing new to see here. We all knew this was coming and if you didn't you are delusional.
It won't affect the long term upwards trajectory
I doubt we get past $1500. $10k is another ball game. Not this time, and not in the long time ahead.
13.
Post 17966464 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
I doubt we get past $1500. $10k is another ball game. Not this time, and not in the long time ahead.
i didn't expect it to be where it is now so soon, and especially with so little hype or drama. that means there's a bunch more hysteria that can be stoked. i kinda hope it doesn't happen but there's a chance it might. $1500 is possible if the rest of the world gets excited.
sure, it is possible to climb much further on the so called wall of worry, but it won't last long in my opinion. Btw., I was also doubting we get through $1k and now to $1163 that easily, but we made it. So technical indicators screaming overbought is one thing, and what market is able to do is the other.
14.
Post 17968256 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?
0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).
you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money.
25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot.
and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further.
Market cap notion used in Bitcoin (and altcoin) sphere is a pure nonsense. It is extremely misleading to multiply the current price by the number of coins, thinking (wishfully) that all of the coins can be, all of a sudden, sold at this price.
15.
Post 17973504 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?
0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).
you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money.
25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot.
and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further.
Market cap notion used in Bitcoin (and altcoin) sphere is a pure nonsense. It is extremely misleading to multiply the current price by the number of coins, thinking (wishfully) that all of the coins can be, all of a sudden, sold at this price.
There are two ways to think about the relationship between market cap and how much "real money" is invested into bitcoin.
1) short term. ECB is correct to point out that an injection of 25 billion dollars of "real money" would drive the price to the moon in the short term, due to liquidity issues.
2) long term. If you think in terms of steady state conditions, then cmacwiz's reasoning makes perfect sense.
Great to see that we are on the same page with that.
It is mostly about liquidity, as this is what really matters in the end. Be it for (paper) gold, stocks or Bitcoin.
16.
Post 17978273 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
Not feeling much excitement. In spite of the price being the highest ever. Which tells me we are just getting started.
Same here, it felt like as if you are playing a video game and with that ATH you've killed the final boss and it's game over and credits are scrolling down the screen.
Although we are just starting I know, but this is my feelings nowadays
It's like: same ol', same ol', been there, seen that.
But I guess, it is all about bitcoin (and altcoin) pumps, they all look the same in the end. It is about how cool you keep and if are able to ride the wave and trade it properly.
17.
Post 18242651 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
I'm buying. Thank you for the cheap coins.
you may win this time, but this not my risk/reward ratio. There are much more interesting altcoin plays at the moment.
18.
Post 18358319 (copy this link) (by uki) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
I loved the idea behind bitcoin since the very beginning.
That's why I got into Bitcoin in the first place. The realization that I could make a lot of money from it came later.
It was all about decentralized, open-source peer-to-peer networking. This is what I call the real New World Order.
When I first heard about Napster, it wasn't free music that fascinated me. It was the idea of P2P file sharing. I watched as the process evolved from centralized to partially centralized and then to fully decentralized, ending up with bittorrent magnet links and torrent portals existing on redundant cloud servers based on multiple continents.
I watched Wikipedia evolve from a sketchy platform where anyone could post any bullshit they wanted to my go-to site for research. The site itself may be centralized but the content is controlled by a worldwide decentralized community of contributors who keep it honest.
Social media sites are similar. The sites themselves may be so centralized that they are all basically operated by Prism but the content is still supplied by a worldwide community. Likewise crowdfunding.
Long live the real New World Order.
it's very good we crossed $1000 once again
Indeed. It wasn't long ago that $1000 seemed like a dream.
Remember when we first hit $1000 back in 2013? People were ecstatic. They planned international Bitcoin millionaire parties and bought Lamborghinis and castles.
Then some people convinced themselves that we'd never reach $1000 again. It was all fake, they said. MtGox, Willybot, Beanie Babies, tulip bubbles, etc.
Now it's become our new base line. If it dips below, it's only for a few hours, or as we saw this past weekend, a day.
Not bad considering that one esteemed moderator posted about the "myth" of triple digits back in the summer of 2013.
Just look at us now.
I am still not convinced that $1k is our new base line. Let it some more time, so that the things can settle.
I agree however, that it is amazing how much Bitcoin grew since the end of the last bear market (post Mt. Gox), and even more amazing to compare it where we were before Mt. Gox.
Having said that, I also have to mention that in terms of development on the 'made' side of the bill there are couple of disappointments in the last four years.