Ah yes, guessing. That was a synonyme of TA, right?

Good point. Just imagine the average Joe having 5 whole bitcoins on his personal wallet, instead of 30.000 dollars in the bank. Do you already see him calculating when he's buying some kitchen appliance for 0,01 or 0,0092 bitcoin?
My wits tell me that just won't work.

You think this was it? Watch out, as you might be proven very wrong. Nothing is certain at this stage.

Now the whole edifice is sure to crumble.

No, but really: this is a true possibility. Though I believe it are some hackers and not Karpeles.
Imagine what 400.000 coins could do in these market conditions. Just imagine it.

I think this music is more fitting for this ambigious, melodramatic moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNR0qsXNM2k

Like you are hodling? Tell me Podyx, I noticed that you are a permanent optimist when it comes down to Bitcoin. Be honest: where did you buy? I will not ridicule you or whatever, but I just want to know.

That is, if you discard the massive risks in making such a trade. Those chips are only good in doing one thing.

1) Supporters that have lost all faith in Bitcoin and don't want to catch the falling knifes anymore;
2) Miners, that want to get rid of their accumulated coins;
3) Whales that are trying to manipulate the price downwards;
4) Mt. Gox hackers.

Not to quick: the situation remains very ambigious. We haven't rallied out of this low yet. I believe that only daytraders have brought the price back up again with a few dozen dollars. The average Joe is not buying in these situations.

Oh no. I won't even touch Bitcoin if it falls back to double digits. I believe that many hoarders are sitting back now and thinking about what they really have.

This. Thanks for bringing this back to reality. Religious people really react in the same, aggressive manner when they feel like their beliefs are endangered. The parallels  are vast, so much has been confirmed once again.

In who's dreams exactly? It amazes me how some people here can be so dead certain on such unsure future situations.

I did in the past, although the dumping of Jed McCaleb has resulted in XRP becoming worthless in practice. Sadly, XRP indeed turned out to be a bad example of pre-mined coins, although it surely could have worked. The simple fact is that McCaleb got arrogant, sold vast parts of his stack and is able to hold the XRP market in a deathgrip for years to come. I believe he is still sitting on on like 8 billion XRP that he could use to kill off any price rise. And he will do that, since he is working on his new toy 'Stellar'.

This. He got this trackrecord of never really finishing what he starts and next to that he pretty much screwed over every XRP holder by acting as he did. This guy his credibility has gone completely down the drain and therefore should at best be treated with a mild neglect.

Well, he can sell though only in limited quantaties. I believe it was somewhere close to 10.000 dollar of XRP a week for the next 3 years. After that he is free to dump his entire stash again. Or before that, if he believes that he can buy his way out of any possible lawsuits. Investing in XRP is a no-go because of McCaleb.

http://www.coindesk.com/jed-mccaleb-ripple-labs-strike-deal-avert-9-billion-xrp-sell/

10.000 is the Doomsday number. When 10.000 gets reached, Karpeles and his cronies will releaase the Goxcoins.

Lambchop, where do you get these? I am curious.

Feel free to explain yourself then. Simply stating 'you couldn't be more wrong', and then adding the juvenile 'lmao' doesn't really cut it, now does it?

Sorry to break it to you, but this is the same uninformed bullshit about Ripple I see from so many people down here. Sure, the founders have allocated parts of the XRP funds to themselves. Only all are bound to lock up agreements, and will not kill Ripple out of some grand 'scheme'. Give me a good reason why they have multiple deals with banks now and are employing more and more people everyday if it is simply a scam.

Now I think about it: best buy me some Ripples as well. I would love it to be lower, but too bad that won't happen unless Bitcoin were to crash down to 50 bucks a bit quicker.

Most Bitcoiners here really have no clue about Ripple. You can read it in how they tend to attack it: 'it's a scamcoin' (first of all, define what a scam is, then tell me if Ripple actually is a scamcoin? You will fail, given how long it has been in existence, given that the founders are bound to lock up agreements and simply because Ripple Labs is a business that has hired a lot of people by now). It is also easily noticable how emotional some of them get when something else than Bitcoin, so not specifically Ripple, is being talked about here. Because Bitcoin MUST succeed, and it WILL get to the moon. That is what they promises to themselves, and it must come true otherwise a lot of people here will be in financial ruin.

They all like to babble about the great 'fundamentals' behind Bitcoin, but I know for sure that at least 80 percent of the people responding here is in it for the money. The naive idealists will stay behind in the long grind downwards, ultimately holding the bag.

Sure, let me press this button.

Never in my memory. That is why I always consider the votes on the highest option to be invalid. The votes on the lowest I multiply by 0,5 mostly for correction.

Then get out you poor stereotype of a hodler. Your kind is characterized by simply ignoring news, not about panicking.

What I understand is that China still plays a way too important role, as the volume chart shows again. Also, the price is about 3 times lower than it was during the December 2013 people, so obviously volume must go up. Traders will sell on the way up and buy more bitcoin during the way down and in that sense I don't considering this chart to really prove a point. The only thing what it is saying is that volume is up tremendously (for the first time in months), but this could mean two things. The market seems to be deciding, and we aren't out of the bear market as it stands now. Also, the cutthroat market mentality that summarizes Bitcoin trading will make sure that any rise in price will likely get killed off again by shorters, bringing us back to square one.

No, the long grind downwards will likely continue. I consider the odds of that 80/20, as a the market mentality does not switch overnight. Only if we have seemingly bottomed out for 3 to 5 months will I believe that the bear market has ended.

Be sure to pay those bills there! We are still waiting for our northern European tax money to return.

Touche my friend. Good night .

Not really. We'll probably climb a bit more until another massive dump follows, bringing us back to square one. If this keeps up at some point support must give way.

You do understand that there is another dump incoming, right? Althans, dat hoop ik.

edit: nevermind, no need to wait. The dump is already happening.

Thanks for this sobering chart. This really is the best way of subduing (perma)bulls: confrontation with reality.

The chart wasn't mine, as you seem to have missed that. But in response to your post: oh well, even more arbitrary lines. Everyone can basically draw a chart the way he likes it, only thing it requires is a stretch of imagination.

Oh no, lines are always arbitrary in my opinion. What I found sobering with respect to the first chart is that it shows the general sentiment: that is we're still trading down for now. There will of course be a short lived uptick again, followed by another dump.

At times like this I wish there was a downvote button.

As you did the last couple of weeks I presume ^ ^ . Simply face reality and tell yourself this: Bitcoin reached its limit last december already. There is only one way for Bitcoin to go, and it isn't up to new ATH's. Also, the only reason why Bitcoin hasn't fallen much further is because the market is clearly being manipulated by a group of whales which are pretty much working as a cartel at the moment. I expect that large mining companies are part of that agreement, as we apparantly came very close to the break even point of some of the larger ones.  Bitcoin might go up a bit, it might even reach 500 dollars, but after that it is the long, painful grind downwards again.

If it actually goes beyond 500 dollars? Then I'll take back that part of my statement, although it will likely never break the ATH again. There is still too much money to be made shorting, which will break any serious move upwards.

Although I have to say that this astronomical rise you are describing fits in a row of other predictions that by their very nature seem to be wrong 9 out of 10 times. The bottom has been called literally hundreds of times already (maybe finally correct by now) and we've been predicted to go to the moon thousands of times already. Forgive me if I am a bit wary of someone that just out of nothing predicts another massive rise in price to the 600 region.

Bookmark it if you will, I'll do the same.

Well said.

I believe I can see where OPEC made its announcement on that chart ^^.

Ripple is going through the roof. You must be really mad if you don't diversify at this point. And by diversifying in this case, I mean completely stepping out of Bitcoin. It is too high risk/low gain at the moment. Holding unto it, when there is such a good alternative, is simply sentimental madness. Get out and let it die: we can all be early adopters again.

Seems like China is waking up. I wonder what the weekend will bring.

Well Ripple actually did move a lot amid the turmoil on the financial markets. I also noticed a massive volume increase in CNY/XRP lately, which seems to point to many Chinese whales/holders leaving the Bitcoin game and joining the XRP fun.

I didn't know XRP and LTC could be compared to one another? LTC is simply a copy of Bitcoin, with some slight modifications. XRP, or Bitshares and NXT in that regard, are something completely else. All were build from scratch, instead of the hundreds of copy-paste coins that are out there. I cannot see how LTC can be compared to XRP in any way, next to it being a crypto.

Rumors remain rumors as long as they are unconfirmed. I would like to ride that wave though .

Jed is bound to his 10.000 limit for the first two years. After that it rises to 20.000 for the third and fourth year. After that he basically do what he wishes, but Ripple will likely succeed even before he reaches the 20.000 limit. Jed is of no concern: why would he unload all his XRP (and take on all the legal trouble, because he's bound to not sell) while denying himself the chance to become a multimillionaire/ billionaire? Jed never finishes what he starts, he might be slightly unstable from time to time, but even he is not as retarded to make such a move.

This topic has been standard off-topic since like thousands of pages ago. Also, it is relevant to the people that are not aware of the alternatives, especially those that lost a lot of money and are still holding onto their Bitcoin. They might take the right choice here and simply swap in those Bitcoins for XRP. Ripple's fundamentals are simply much better at te moment, and the prediction made by several forum members nearly a year ago already that Bitcoin in time will be replaced by a crypto 2.0 turns out to be completely true. The people claiming that back in January/February were the true visionaries in my eyes.

But come on, you see how the market is moving at the moment. You would literally scam yourself if you don't look at the alternatives and stay in this ever falling currency.

Out of curiosity Blitz: do you think 275 will hold? There has been a lot of talk about the 270ish level around here, and often it has been called 'the real bottom'. Given the flurry of bad bottom calls of the past 10 months or so I'm very sceptical about that, although there will likely be a major battle around that level. But what do you think?

Second: if 270-ish gets broken, do you expect Bitcoin to crumble down to the high 100's?

Good thinking, and this has been proposed as a solution when he was unloading earlier this year (before he got bound to his current agreement). For some reason Ripple Labs did not choose that option, but given that Ripple Labs knows (and probably tracks) all his wallets it shouldn't be that hard to limit the rate in which he can sell XRP. Another advantage of centralized systems if you think about it.

They can't, as has been explained multiple times before here already. Stop spamming for god sake, as you don't seem to want to quit. You really are asking for a ban here.

I sincerely hope those fuckers get screwed over by the courts. A long prison sentence should await such criminals. There is no impunity, even in the world of crypto.

May I quote this for irony?

If you're a shallow guy and into the fake and unnatural, than this gif is indeed the way to go. I for one will look at real women.

Pretty accurate Lamb.

Uhuh, if history repeats. Shroomsy his trolling aside: history has surely repeated itself in completely false predictions and bottoms that have been called over and over again. I said one month ago that it will reach 50 bucks ish (maybe a bit more though, but not much) within 6 months and so far I'm surely sticking with it.

I already see exactly the same patterns appearing as I've seen so many times before. We will probably slowly grind down until another sudden dump takes place. Daytraders will laugh at the fools that bought at the top, as usual.

The triangle is closing: I wonder what will happen tomorrow.

Any (quality) TA here would be appreciated. I'm curious whether some people are thinking the same as me regarding market movement tomorrow. Throw in those random drawn lines!

Noticed that as well, but I'm not convinced yet.

edit: the small momentum that was there seems to have died out already.

Yep, failed breakout. Down it will be tomorrow today.

Just for the record: I'm not into Bitcoin at the moment and highly likely (as in 99,5%) will never get back into it. I'm simply bearish and trying to predict the market drawing on my own amateur knowledge. 'Talking your book' never works if you ask me: I don't believe that the posts of a few people on these boards can really influence the price, save maybe situations of great drops/rises in price.

Can you give us a list of bull types as well? Don't forget to mention the permabull, including yourself as a prime example .

You're not the brightest, are you? I'm talking about the short term at the moment, and what happened about 1 to 2 hours ago (and is still happening) when Bitcoin started flirting with some resistance lines.

Also, the simple fact that it is up 60 points since last week should get you very wary, given what a significant rise in price has meant almost every time in this bear market. Expect a drop on dump-Tuesday.

 

Another fake wall on Bitfinex. Feels familiar to the november/december situation. People are likely to get burned soon.

According to the poll, people don't expect sub 200 coins in February. For me, that's a good indicator that it will happen. Always stick to what the majority of the people in this topic say, and do the exact opposite as that will actually take place.

I wonder what's happening here will trigger another stop loss round if it reaches the high 1380's. But that might be pushing it.

I agree Daniel, it is a lot, but major movements in this market easily cause such swings. We might be there in less than an hour if need be; it all depends on the whales and their cubs.

For a moment I thought I saw Inca talking, but I can't be surprised that you say this. Why do you say it really? Is it because you've taken up a position, or are you really that deluded on Bitcoin its future? Because really now, I don't take permabulls seriously, especially the religious ones out there. We'll be back to retest 150, don't you worry. The impossible-to-conquer-fortress called 270 was smashed to pieces, and now bottoms are being called again. Wait for Bitcoin to stabilize for a few months, and then come with stupid claims like this one. Always, forever, without a doubt, never; that's simply language for fools. There are no absolutes.

Interesting: your answer is a meme. I could go on about how disappointing and childish that is, but I think you know that already.

Also, I'm not saying that it will completely die in the end in terms of price, but it will keep going down for a few months at least.

Yep, sometimes exceptions have to be made. It's same about being tolerant towards intolerant people: you simply can't .

Relevant question: if the price were to go below 1400 CNY, which it won't as it seems like, would that trigger another round of stop losses? I wonder.

Not now. God called: the apocalypse will be postponed another few hours/days. You can get to sleep .

Everything is bullish in this topic. Even Bitcoin being declared illegal would be interpreted as a bullish signal.

Wops, my bad then. Didn't notice the sarcasm going on here.

Gonna bookmark this one again for comic relief, as I did with some of your earlier comments. I wonder whether you will sell at 180 when we reach that point. I wonder.

Don't be such a hypocrite Inca: so do you. You only predict one direction for Bitcoin: up, to the moon that is. I haven't seen you even suggest the opposite, so please get off your high horse. You're just a permabull that spams these boards with your own propaganda. A type of lambchop, but then without any sense of humor.

Sorry Shroomsy, but I find this argument highly unlikely. Why would you take over some else his account, and not make a new one yourself? It all sounds a bit too accidental if you ask me. I normally always read your comments, even though you seem to be highly aggressive to just about everyone that doesn't share your (trolling) opinion, but at this point even I am finally questioning your state of mind. You've been called bipolar before, and at this point I'm wondering whether its true.

The way you seem to bite at everyone, even though this topic is filled with  permabulls, reminds me of someone that is clearly not right in the head. The magic word for you seems to be 'delusional' , which you use at random in demonizing every person that simply does not agree with you. I wonder what it is that thrives you, as people in turn seem to be really ridiculing you for it. I mean: it's not like you can change anything here, as the permabulls that believe the moon is real will simply keep believing it regardless.

Why? Why come back here and try to convince people that Bitcoin will die on such short notice? They already know your opinion, so why repeat it ad nauseum?

More on-topic: Bitcoin for now seems to have found short term resistance at 1450 and support at 1370. It will remain to float in this band for a couple of hours or up to a day.
At least, that's what my random lines and triangles tell me. But a random whale can of course change all of that.

Why would that be? Because the 'hero member' tag in some way reflects authority? I don't really think people will buy that.

8 AM China Time, or also: 12 PM GMT. If it is going to happen, it will be around that time.

Remember that 10k of the Finex buy wall is bullshit. People saw it flashing in and out earlier today, so don't be deceived by the order book. Also: a lot of people believe that Bitcoin go up at the moment, which will mean (empirically) that the exact opposite will happen again.

*corrected

To @Gotmilk and @dreamspark: obvious typo, I meant the buy wall. Sell walls seem to be rather small at the moment.

If those disappear, it will be immediatly as those buy walls are fake as has been seen my multiple people in this thread today. We are nearing 8 AM China Time, so if there's gonna be a move it will be there in the next 60 to 90 minutes. I already see some careful movement downwards, just the way the other dumps started before the 8 AM mark.

Just saying: if you scroll back a few pages on this topic you will see people noticing the appearance and disappearance of a large wall on Finex. It went up and down a few times before finally settling. Also: this wouldn't be the first time that false bid walls are being used to mislead people that invest into this thing. Let's see what happens.

Well, that is the apparant answer for now. Or is it not allowed to predict downwards movements here anymore ?

It isn't really: it looks like a repeat of the pattern we saw between Jan 27 and Jan 29. I consider a drop more likely than a rise at the moment, but let's see.

Sell all of it immediatly, and maybe buy back lower. I definately wouldn't keep them at that phase. Then again, I would've exited a long time ago already, around the 500 dollar mark.

Here we go. Let's see if the stop losses at 1370 can be initiated.

No doubt... You are free to believe what you want, and I won't force you to take any particular position regarding where Bitcoin is headed of course, but please do the following. When you go to bed tonight just stare in the mirror and speak those words: 'No Doubt'. And ask yourself if you really believe that is the right way of thinking.

Take care Morecoin.

Indeed. Also: why haven't we seen a run upwards yet? That's right, because the vast part of the bidwalls is fake. The dumpers are simply waiting for the same fools to fall in the same trap again, so they can dump at a premium. If there would be real demand, the price would've recovered to 250/260 ish by now. But there isn't any real demand at all.

If I may ask: why  do you keep posting the bid/ask walls? All nice and all, as it in the spirit of the Wall observer topic, but then again the bidwalls are pretty fake. I wonder whether it is to make a point, or if you have some other reason.

Alrighty, never noticed you doing that before, and I've been reading these boards for about 18 months by now . Thanks for telling me.

Indeed, seems to be down quite a lot lately.

Really obvious trap going on here, but still a lot of people here immediatly fall for it. It is telling about how gullible quite a few people here seem to be. One whale moves the market and BOOM: we are going over 300 dollars for sure! Soon to be followed by: last time we see 200's, to the moon!, etc.

I believe that small investors, let's say the ones that hold less than 500 BTC, have really little influence on the market. The upswing we saw today was very sudden, and completed in a rather short timeframe (again!), which makes me believe that it is either one party or multiple parties working together to manipulate the price upwards.

Soon you will have to edit it again with paint, changing the 2 in a 1 . The same rhetoric will undoubtedly be used on the way down for times to come.

Who would have known. The entire day I have seen people predicting it must go over 300 dollars overnight now or, even worse, that we're moonbound again.
I mean really: what do you expect? That Bitcoin will suddenly take off out of nowhere in an everlasting bear market? I wonder how many people bought at these prices, as they will likely regret it later on.

That explains why you are so highly active in this topic. I understand that you get annoyed by the people that say Bitcoin 'will' fail, as I'm annoyed by the people that say it 'will' go to the moon. But then again: you talking here won't stop them, nor can you influence the price of Bitcoin in any way by writing some short pieces of text here. I understand that you might be jumpy because you bought in at > 400, but if you get out now you still won't have lost all.

Watch it: not telling you to get out. I'm however comparing you with a gambler at this point, that being one that goes all in for a few times with an ever shrinking stash. There is more than enough rational reason to get out of Bitcoin for now and I urge you not to base your decisions, whether you hold or sell, on your emotions.

I really wouldn't dare to say that with such determination. Bitcoin has been therefore and it might fall back there again. I still believe that it will stabilize in the 50-100 dollar range, with my guess being closer to 50 than 100. This year will bring us further valueing of Bitcoin on the basis of its true use, which is extremely limited at this point. Also: the bear market is not reversing for the time being, so it's a safe bet that it will keep going down further.

Now, a guess of 2 bucks, that would be delusional, although I cannot exclude that it will happen in like 5 years.

Probably a lot of idiots fell for the alt coin pump and dump game again. The manipulators that did this will simply move on to the next altcoin now.

A lot of people do: don't kid yourself LFC. You before explained why you post here - and I won't get back at it - but keep an open mind, or you'll get trapped a second time. Bitcoin is not the final solution to everything, nor does it necessarily have to succeed.

Just saying it, and probably no one else here remembers it. Just stimulating you to keep your eyes and ears open. That's the best way of making a profit.

Of course not. There are some walls to demolish before we can go down significantly.

Don't talk in absolutes. You cannot know that.

Is it just me, or is there really little buying pressure going on at the moment?  Rather boring this island of relative stability we're seeing here. But at some point the whale boys will get bored and start dumping again probably.

As a European myself I have rather mixed feelings by your attempts of acting interesting towards everyone else here. Hate is one of those feelings, although I won't deny that a feeling of humor is present as well. It is really impressive to see how you constantly confuse the EMU with the EU and seem to have no idea of the latter its institutions, its goals or why it is there in the first place.

Not to mention the surety that only an ideological maniac can put forward: Greece is out. No doubt about it. You know it already. No idea how, but you know it.  After Greece is out, which is 100% certain to happen according to your crystal ball, the whole experiment (the EU I take it) would unravel. Granted, the diplomatic damage would be considerable, but there is no way in hell that Europe will throw away 60-ish years of cooperation because Greece can't keep its internal finances in check. The EU is much, much more than the single currency some of its countries are using nowadays, although I don't expect you to understand that shit.

Truth be told, the way you crusade against the EU - and the level of uninformedness - really comes close to the level of Fox News.

Maybe in terms of his self interests, but then again Machiavelli had no problem switching allies. Putin however does.

I sense some saltyness going on here. NLC, even though I still do not have you on ignore (as I almost never ignore people), I do wonder what moves you to come back here time and again. You spend vast amounts of time here for so little in return. Where's the satisfaction in all of this? Even a troll cannot be happy after being here so long.

I think I'll go with the popular theory here, that being that you are not exactly right in the head. Maybe consider help to get cured?

12.000 is coming. Prepare yourselves.

In some backwater conservative country maybe: in most of Europe you simply be morally looked down upon. That's about it.

12.000 pages. Yay.

edit: Too late Jimbo boy!

Mid 1xx's, as we need a retest of 150'ish.

Really NLC, I mean this:

You have a sick mind. A really - really - sick mind. I honestly wonder what thrives you to spend countless hours here for absolutely nothing, if only to rake in a few responses of people that take you seriously to some extent. Then again, your being here is the DIRECT RESULT of BLITZ FUCKING UP MODERATING. Yeah, you read that right Blitz. Fucking moderate these boards, or hand in your badge and gun to someone else.

I understand that, but Blitz should hand over the keys of the castle to someone else in that case. Someone with the time to moderate these boards, preferably a small group of people. The only thing we need is to keep the troll posters out; that can't be too hard, now is it?

That shiny moderator title is more than a mere title: it is an obligation as well.

Peak euphoria is the problem: reading this board makes you think it's only a matter of time until we reach 4000+ BTC's, while nearly no one seems to be taking into account that the market may be satiated already.  BTC has bounced back twice now from about the same price level, and that is a strong signal after a two-and-a-half month long rally.

If you're not into Bitcoin for ideological reasons, I would definitely sell because of the following reasons:

- Charts indicate BTC will very likely travel downwards to the 1500 range in the coming weeks/months/over a year from now ;
- There's no saying how long this will take, and whether BTC will veer back up to 3000 dollars in the longer run - given it is being overtaken by newer tech  ;
- Long positions are about to be demolished, turning the market in a shorting circus ;
- Bitcoin has tripled in value over the past few months, while a few altcoins have increased in value much more than Bitcoin (in the 1000's of percents!). Bitcoin's price increase was likely related to the altcoin market, not as much fundamentals.

Didn't know you were still here Proudhon! I concur with respect to  the odds you outlined: it isn't likely at this point, not given the competition out there. The tech is getting ancient.

Indeed. I was here around late 2013, early 2014, watching the situation develop. The parallelles between then and now are offsetting, including the rampant permabull behavior among users here. Again, just like back then, most people won't even see the major correction coming.

There are even plenty of older members here that claim Bitcoin is not in a bubble. For god sake people, it is! Bitcoin started to bubble as soon as the ICO thing got out of hand, whereas BTC was the entry coin to that circus. The same trouble around BTC applies as in late 2013, early 2014: still, nearly no one is using it. People love to refer to Japan, but there are a handful of nodes running there, that's it.

 Maybe the bubble pops today, maybe a month or year from now, but probably from this day onwards in my view.  People underestimate the regulatory aspect here continuously: China apparantly will ban free trade of BTC, but don't think that China could be the only nation to do so. Any asset that makes money laundering and financing of criminal activities easier and more difficult to trace, is the enemy of nation states. Whenever BTC grows too big, governments will simply start taking out the hubs where you can exchange it or use it to buy other goods.

How could you possibly know this for sure? What kind of crystal ball do you have that tells you this?
You'd do wise to keep an open mind, instead of making a mockery out of yourself by excluding the possibility something else happens.

Are you for real?

Are you really asking people to tell you this? First of all: do not trust strangers on the internet with respect to such answers. Second of all: no one knows for sure in the firs tplace.
Do you happen to be unsure about your investment? Because if you consider it to be eating on your person, you might better take your losses and sell at this point. This correction will be different than others if China knocks down Bitcoin exchanges, and Bitcoin will likely be in decline for months on end in that case. At the moment we are still at the relative top of such a decline if it is going to pass.

Make your own decisions though.

More downward pressure.

What do you assume, that the price of asset X can just rise indefinitely?
At some point the top will be found, after which Bitcoin will go down again. You can claim that whales are responsible for it, but it won't help you if they and others are selling due to changing market sentiment. Though this drop is so it seems different than the previous ones, which were simply short term consolidation moves if not downright manipulation.

Walls say nothing. If you want to deduce any information out of them, than go for the opposite they imply.
I've nearly always seen crashes versus much larger buying walls. If you want to sell a lot of Bitcoin at market, you will not put out a 10000 BTC+ bid, but instead slow sell them all in increments. Put up some fake buy walls on the other side (of course, by use of your trading bot) and the suckers will believe it again.

This pattern has been observed by me in the crypto market over and over again. Never trust whatever the orderbook says to deduce where the price is going.

Interesting how there is so little talk around here about how many Chinese BTC Western exchanges will be able to absorb in the first place.
Because rest assured: what cannot be sold in China will be sold in the West.

Another thing that is not being talked about: how will BTC survive after a large decline? Is this crypto's Dotcom bubble crash? Because in that case, only a few crypto currencies will survive, and only those with the strongest usecase. In my view, BTC is far from certain to be ensured survival in that case.  Bitcoin is not ensured - at all - to rise again. Past performance does not guarantee future performance, as the opposite would mean that Bitcoin would keep rising forever.

Lastly: what will happen if some major parties that are playing the market now decide to move over to some other crypto alternative, with more advanced tech and/or a different usecase? Because those parties aren't holding BTC for some damn ideological goal: they want to make money. If they start dumping Bitcoin like there is no tomorrow, we might easily find ourselves in a similar 2014/2015 decline.

I'm curious how people think about these questions, as there is way too little attention for such things here.

I wonder how many people were ensnared in yesterday's bulltrap.

Exactly this. There is way too little attention here towards the question how much BTC Western exchanges can actually absorb here, and how long it will take for the Chinese to cash out. We might easily be looking at months here, if not more than a year, to sell at optimum prices after the initial correction.

Expect another leg up not too far in the future from now, up to 3500-4000 USD max. After that, the bear will push it all down below 2500 and confirm the bear market.  The people here that held in the last two weeks, due to rampant permabullish sentiments here, will shoulder the bill. And among them there will be many people that have no idea of what they are doing, but simply trusted on what was written here by oldtimers that bought in much lower.

Probably. Expect a rise to the 3500-4000 USD level in the next couple of days, followed by the bear leg to 2500 USD.

A few things in response to this:

First of all, I believe there will be continued shock waves in the market as more Chinese exchanges start shutting down. But the real thing that is going to tip it all over is the sheer amount of BTC still in Chinese hands (mostly mined in the past) that will be released on Western exchanges.  As it stands, there is likely too little buying pressure to maintain 2500 if the dumping will again continue after some shortlasting upwards movement.

Then there's the issue of mining consortiums: how are they going to foot the bill? They will need to pay for their electricity in RMB, and China's capital controls aren't helping here. At this point, I consider it likely that one or more mining consortiums will stop operations as well, sending further shockwaves. Again: I consider it likely, there is no reason to be sure about this at all.

If Bitcoin will indeed move in a bear market, this one will last for months if not over a year. It will be characterized by a slow downward grind, after an initial drop to the 50% fib level. As 50% is not guaranteed to hold in the short term, it might indeed make sense for large whales to continue dumping at current market prices.

Last but not least: this is 2017, not 2013/2014. There is newer tech out there, and real competition as well. The crypto funds that invested in BTC are not guaranteed to keep BTC in their baskets, or at least in the same ratio. There will be funds out there that are re-evaluating what they really have in their hands right now - and they will start weighing the value of recent changes in China.

If you meant the piece of terminology: all time high. The all time high itself: just above 5000 USD.

I'm surprised. Normally you are a permabull in just about every situation, and suddenly you had a change of heart. Weird, and unexpected, as I didn't expect you to even think of the option BTC could go the opposite way.
My opinion of you has really changed for the better now.

But why the sudden change of heart?

Crucial support has been broken around 3800 USD. The 'back to normal' phase is drawing to an end.
The large move down is about to begin, the one that will confirm the bear market in the coming days and weeks.

Crucial short term support, at least so it appears.

https://imgur.com/jZoIQpn

But indeed, over the longer term there are more interesting numbers of solid support.

I wish it was that easy of an explanation .  Also, I moved out of left BTC years ago already.

No, I have been fascinated with Bitcoin for years, and consider the attitude on this forum - especially the permabullism and the constant and ever encompassing rage against criticism - as an interesting social experiment. I have little doubt people will read  the history of these boards in years to come, to see how group think can lead to catastrophic results.

Especially the tribalism here (strong hands vs weak hands, bulls vs bears) is so ridiculously narrow minded that it actually gets intriguing at some point.

None: I did pick up some things in the meanwhile. I did some research on trading and everything associated with it, got some books on the shelf here, but in the end it is pseudo-science at best in my view.  Sometimes charts might give an important clue, which I think is the case now, but in the long run there is no point in trusting on TA and the like.

While in BTC in the past I started doing some research on credible alternatives in the cryptosphere, with possible real world application, and ended up investing getting out of BTC and investing in XRP back in 2014 (at least around that time). I hindsight that was no poor decision (   ) , but those that stayed in Bitcoin in 2014 through 2016 made no poor decision as well.  Then again, Bitcoin's problems in my view are nearly exclusively the same ones as in late 2013/early 2014: no real world usecase, very few people using it, high volatility and the entire link with China. I see no realistic scenario of it succeeding in the long run, including my view that Bitcoin as it is cannot function as a store of value. Let alone the extremely important regulatory aspects involved.

The relationship with China will come back to bite Bitcoin, even though lots of people here assumed 'China' was no longer a problem in this game. If the Chinese government indeed starts cracking down on mining farms, the panic here will be unreal, and the dumps will be even more severe. But even without that, I think Bitcoin has entered a bear market already - with the bubble being ready to pop right now.

Truth be told, I have never really caught you being constructive in any way here. You always seem to bully people that do not share your faith and belief and believe that Bitcoin must succeed.
Feel free to rant on all you like though: that's what you are known best for here anyways  .

You are a believer Torque, nothing more. The simple fact that you tend to suggest you are something else than that, doesn't change it. You have put your faith  in this thing, and that's fine by me.

Come on, that's rather low of you. I fairly answered your question: I could've bluffed my way through it, ignored it, or done something else, but opted to not do so.
At least have the courtesy to respond back.

Also, do you have a background in any of the things you named?

Mind sharing your criticism then?
Apparantly you want to claim some kind of authority here, so why not share your knowledge? I am not interested in a long drawn out argument here anyways: people are too entrenched in their positions here anyways which will result in it being a waste of time regardless.

I call you a believer, because you seem to show no doubt, at all, including not acknowledging (at least, I never caught you at doing so!) the possibility that Bitcoin might fail in the long run. That is what makes you a believer, not the fact that you invested in Bitcoin in the past and present. Maybe cultist is in place as well, no matter how loaded that piece of terminology is.

About the second part: this is another example of what is wrong with this board. Throw around some criticism about Bitcoin, and immediatly be labeled as a 'troll', or at least be confronted with the suspicion you are one.  It fits in the pattern of this board, longtime members in particular, not being able to deal with criticism. At this point, I am still surprised you haven't accused me of spreading FUD (another popular smear tactic here!).  It has always been this way here in my memory, which is one of the main reasons for the existence of a herd mind here.

That is the main reason why I called this place an interesting social experiment: people here have closed their minds for truly open discussion and like crabs they keep each other in the bucket. If Bitcoin were to fail in the mid to long term, I can see those people still claiming that everything is fine around 500 USD (mind you: I am not claiming Bitcoin will go there) and that Bitcoin will appreciate again. After all, it did so in the past as well, right?

What part of 'in the long run' did you not understand? Or the part about 'might', that precedes 'give an important clue'.
At least try to properly quote someone next time.


Of course not: the internet of value will highly likely become a real thing, we agree on that. There is however no certainty that Bitcoin will be leading the spearhead or even be playing a role of importance in the future. None, at all. And by saying that, I also include the possibility of governments cracking down on any cryptocurrency that makes money laundering, financing of illegal activitities, etc. easier. The regulatory aspect is just systematically overlooked by the crowd here.

Also, there's a difference between the broader notion of an internet of value and Bitcoin itself. Both are not the same.

Consider the following:

Governments close down:

- All or nearly all major exchanges
- All or nearly all major online market places using Bitcoin or some other crypto they want to target, including those on the darknet (on which LE is quite succesfull as of late)
- Outlaw Bitcoin (or again, some other crypto they want to target) transactions altogether, and actively police shops and companies that openly accept it.

You do not consider that this scenario 'might be problematic'? As said thousands of times before: nearly no one uses Bitcoin in the present. The percentage of the population that heard of it is (very) small as well. Without mainstream backing this will be a massive hurdle, if not a fatal one, as by far most people in society are not even interested in the ideological goals of hardcore Bitcoiners. And those people will be reading newspapers as well, including those that constantly vomit out negative stories about it.

Whatever happens, governments can effectively crack down on Bitcoin and other crypto if they'd like. There is no need to take down the network in order to make that possible.

The cat is out of the bag, with respect to blockchain tech. Bitcoin on the other hand? I wouldn't be so sure yet. There are plenty of reasons to assume it could fail, including how it could be utilized for tax evasion, money laundering and overall criminal activities (including the funding of those activities). While governments are supposed to hold no oversight over it?  That is simply unrealistic: governments hate to lose control, and Bitcoin in that sense is no different. It might no longer be anonymous, but it does complicate tracking the flow of money.

My position remains the same: people here continuously overlook the regulatory aspects in play here, and just assume everything will automagically click into place in the future. I simply have a lot of doubts with respect to that assumption. It will not go that way.

Agreed: this will become a high profile topic in the long run if people start using it on a grand scale. But political support for unregulated crypto is not likely, at least so it seems.  There is too much at stake in that sense for governments to just let it slip.

I think all governments will feel threathened to some extent, although there will be differences in how this space gets regulated. I like to compare it to taxation: plenty of nations are cracking down on tax evasion, yet there are still tax havens. But will those tax havens still be there 20-30 years from now? I doubt it.

That is not even necessary: every hurdle that gets thrown up will add more resistance for mainstream adoption.
I also categorically deny this idea that countries are interested in building a BTC ecosystem out of which they are supposed to profit. It runs contradictory to national interests, unless the state itself would be completely crooked as well. In that case, there's a chance.

Or bait buying, by keeping them up. That was the major reason I thought it was there on Bitstamp for example: to bait others into buying, after a strong rise.
Seeing how it is being nibbled away, we might be seeing a buying/selling frenzy here between major parties with opposite interests.

We've never heard that one before here on Bitcointalk /s.

These kinds of stories normally show up towards the end of a bubble. It's mania.

Reading all these comments here again about Ripple, and again the conclusion is the same: this is the valley of the clueless.

You people haven't read up, at all, about the tech, the deals with banks and other FI's - as well as the possibilities of the network. The only thing you do is regurgitate the same wrong assumptions you've been making ever since 2014/2015 - and I am not surprised seeing many old time believers in BTC falling back in their same mistakes as usual again. I just cannot wrap my around why some people can be so stubborn, and still not see when the evidence is just lying around everywhere around them.

It is clear and true fanaticism what some of you guys are unfolding here, people like Torque and Jimbo being ahead of the column  .

Ah yes, I forgot: bAnkS arE thEY EneMY. Or something along those lines.

You know, you can only change the world one step at at time. History is full of idealism-that-went-overboard, and I fear the vehicle this site serves as a community to, is one of them. It was a pipedream in 2013, it is still a pipedream now in 2017. Only the tech got even older and surpassed by competitors left and right. The illogical BTC rally that we saw this year will finally end so it appears, after BTC having been the worst thinkable posterboy for the cryptosphere during that time. From this point onwards, it's downhill for this valueless token.

But as always: make your own decisions. I am just here to witness the level of uninformedness and cognitive dissonance that was likely going on again. I have to say: I was not disappointed.

Nah, just an old supporter from times back and still holding so far. Interesting by the way how a proponent of X is always 'a shill' in this world. As if every BTC supporter would be a 'shill' as well.
People have differing interests, and some are more right than others: there is not much more to it.  The fact that you insist on calling me 'a shill' is further proof to the in group/out group cultism that this community has tended to show for years already.

Torque is clueless: it is useless to cite that guy, as he has unwavering faith in Bitcoin. Always has, always will be. Whatever he says is always based on the assumption that BTC will succeed, and that's what he will always reason towards.

You know, much of the disinformation you are spreading here was already being spread as far back as 2014. The 'arguments' here, poor as they are, have never really changed. It is really noticeable for someone that has been in the XRP community for years, and most of the arguments here with regards to Ripple are false, and mostly, 'hearsay' from years back already. Very few people here have actually looked into Ripple and XRP, studied its use case or done any more than a superficial analysis of its workings. Of course, there are always the ideological types here that would discard any truth or inconvenient fact they get confronted with (the same people that could make themselves believe green is purple), but most people here aren't like that. They are just badly informed, you included.

'Uncapped' is your first mistake. Ripple is capped at its current supply 'Banking scam' got strong conspiracy ish connations to that, but feel free to believe that is the case.

You know what the fun part is? People like me can watch you guys bask in ignorance for months and years to come, and still regurgitate the same false arguments all the way down. This place is and has always been a perfect example for what cultism and group think might lead to, and in that sense, I look forward to the weeks and months to come.

The supply stands at 100 billion: more cannot be made. But the circulating supply increases, due to Ripple Inc holding on to about 60 billion XRP at this point (which are placed in escrow by the way, and only gets released in small batches). Ripple uses this 'war chest' of XRP to attract new partners, all of which that buy it are restricted it dumping it on the market as well. I do remark on that, as there is some kind of 'idea' - a poor one that is - within this community that Ripple can just nuke the market at once. Anyone that even followed the company longer than a day knows that would run counter to everything it stands for, but since most people here haven't even read more than a tweet about Ripple I will suffice by saying that much.

Ripple is actually quite decentralized nowadays. You can inform yourself here: https://ripple.com/dev-blog/decentralization-strategy-update/  And now to totally piss you off: what do you think about this:
https://i.imgur.com/UMosX0E.png ?

Is this 'not' centralized?

The big irony of some of you oldtime Bitcoiners is that you just cannot see what is unfolding in front of your very eyes, that being that BTC is actually at this point more centralized than Ripple. Good luck defending the opposite point of view.

Well, if you want to call mining a prerequisite for determining whether one could speak of centralized or decentralized, then I think we are done talking.
The hard cold fact remains that any 'decentralization' within BTC died as soon as ASICS were introduced.  And honestly, I think you know this as well - but consciously decide to ignore this.

A few large mining farms in the BTC sphere working together can  pretty much do what they want. If you still want to call that decentralized, go right ahead.

Well, those blinds you are wearing will prove to be fatal some day. This is what zealotry can lead to, if you ask me.
Oh, and the flippening will happen. Its importance is indeed overrated, but it will happen and much sooner than you probably think.  There are too many alternatives out there with much better fundamentals that more or less exclude the possibility of it not happening.

Indeed, let us forget all the deals with banks Ripple made - like the one with SBI. Or the fact that Ripple will use its technology for credit card payments.
Just one example here: https://ripple.com/insights/american-express-joins-ripplenet-giving-visibility-and-speed-to-global-commercial-payments/
Here's more: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/27/ripple-jumps-after-news-of-link-to-some-japanese-credit-card-companies.html

Really, it is so easy to pick out the guys here that haven't read up on Ripple in ages, or just read whatever false information they find out there on Twitter. There is nothing 'mind boggling' about Ripple's rise: it makes total sense, if you actually took a good look at what is going on. Not to mention that the accusation 'with 0 actual use anywhere' could more or less be let loose at BTC, which is nearly exclusively being held for speculative purposes, but I'll just let that one slip.

If Bitcoin's funeral is indeed to start after this pennant closes, I think the flippening could happen as soon as around January 20th.  Not that it matters much, but quite a few people here care about it - so there you have it.

Will a group of banks do? SBI is the name of the game in that case.
Start informing yourself from this point onwards: you might actually see the value in it as well. That being: if you are open minded enough to do so. That's my challenge to you.