All posts made by hannesnaude in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1862957 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
And record levels of fiat on the orderbook
2.
Post 1920319 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
$115 never again, takers?
Reasoning:
I have charted the spot_price/ATH price over Jan-Mar, and I think the rally has already resumed. You can offer to bet with quite good odds that we will never cross 0.95*previous_ATH. And you win the bet with a surprisingly good probability. Chart it yourself, lol. I almost always bought at ATH during those months, since it was the least risky entry point.
The supply of people that think that we are in a bubble/denial/bear market/correction/consolidation/younameit is dwindling, and it's dwindling fast. Especially their economic share of the market is about to be crushed if they do not buy back soon.
Do you still see the people that sold out in February? Where are they? LOL, they made their $10k and are out for good. The next time they will hold bitcoins is when they receive their salary.
Any takers?
Yeah sure, I'll take that bet at even odds. If at any point in the future, the price drops below $115 you pay me 1000 BTC. If not, I pay you 1000 BTC.
3.
Post 3662644 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:
Date Price / Trend = x% (Factor)
Lows 2011-11-17 1.99 / 2.05 = 97.11% (1 / 1.03)
2012-08-19 7.58 / 13.90 = 54.52% (1 / 1.83)
2013-04-16 50.01 / 74.30 = 67.31% (1 / 1.49)
2013-07-05 65.42 / 129.59 = 50.48% (1 / 1.98)
Highs 2011-06-08 31.91 / 0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80)
2012-01-05 7.22 / 2.87 = 251.38% (1 * 2.51)
2012-08-17 15.04 / 13.71 = 109.67% (1 * 1.10)
2013-04-10 266.00 / 71.22 = 373.48% (1 * 3.73)
2013-11-19 900.98 / 333.86 = 269.87% (1 * 2.70)
This looks interesting - but what does it mean?
The average bubble is 3.12 times the trendline
> x <- c(47.8, 2.51, 1.1, 3.73, 2,7)
> summary(x)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
1.100 2.128 3.120 10.690 6.182 47.800 No, that's wrong. If by "average" you mean median and by "bubble" you mean the 5 highs you have included in your data set, then mental arithmetic shows that the answer should be 2.7. Your software gave the wrong answer because you entered ...3.73, 2,7) instead of ...3.73, 2.7)
4.
Post 3717715 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Even if I am wrong on this one, I will admit it latest next Monday. This leaves maximum about 10 days (out of 1000) that I have been a bitcoin bear with no reason.
5.
Post 3731244 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.
Context :
Of course, but the activity of non speculators is not sufficient to support current valuation or anything even close to it; even more so now that Silk Road has gone which did give Bitcoin some unique utility in terms of accessing that market.
Yup. You were right weren't you. That valuation could not be sustained
.
6.
Post 3736274 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
$1000 in 3..2..1...
Was excited for a moment there. We should come up with a currency symbol for goxbux, to prevent this kind of confusion in future.
Think it'll be a few more hours (or days?) before we hit 1000 at stamp, which is when it will be real.
7.
Post 3749768 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
The real madness will start once Bitstamp hits $1000. $1000 will seem cheap next week.
I suspect the
real madness will take another 1-2 weeks to hit. New money following the flood of >1000 USD new coverage will take some time to get into the exchanges, especially if the verification queues are backed up.
8.
Post 3762673 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
So much has been talked about regarding the fiat "stuck" in Gox and how people would theoretically have to buy bitcoin to get their currency out. However, the other thing is that who wants to sell their coins there if you can't get the money out? If most people with coins who need the money quicklyever would prefer to use Bitstamp for these obvious reasons, there is just going to be ALOT more bitcoins available on Bitstamp
We are seeing this in the last week. The spread has been over $200 for no particularlya very good reason.
FTFY
9.
Post 3804223 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
So should we still be supporting bitcoin then? He's against the banks isn't he? That's the main reason i liked him but now i'm confused. I guess bitcoin can't be any worse than the banks
You should learn to make up your own mind. Be suspicious of any attempts by others to guide your actions (including this post). Do your research, choose your course independently. None of us know the future, and your opinion is just as valid as anyone else's (assuming you've done your research). So whether Max Keiser is indeed a profiteer or not, should be irrelevant.
10.
Post 3819465 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Also stop with dumb mBTC.
[/quote]
...he has another 0.6k BTC worth of usd waiting.
OK, so apparently mBTC is dumb, but kBTC is not. Care to clarify your feelings on the other SI prefixes?
11.
Post 3835201 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
they ban unicorns too.
They BANNED unicorns??!! I don't believe this. Link or it didn't happen.
12.
Post 3836090 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
no one is that retarded to...
All sentences that start like this are ultimately proven false.
13.
Post 3836186 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
BWAHAHAAAHAHAHA -- now THIS makes the whole China's-shitting-pantz-oh-noes-they-aren't thing worth getting out of bed for...
Dude, don't laugh at the lady. Apparently she finds those jokes uni-corny.
14.
Post 5383632 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.20h):
According to
http://freakonomics.com/2014/02/25/what-does-the-mt-gox-meltdown-mean-for-bitcoin-maybe-not-much/ there will soon be a freakonomics podcast on bitcoin. Now they have an estimated 750 000 podcast listeners per episode (Some of it also goes out on public radio, not sure what the numbers there are). Now this is a factor ~14 less than the estimated viewership of The Good Wife, but the demographics are a great fit for bitcoin. Whereas the median age of a "The Good Wife" viewer is 60 the freakonomics listeners are
Our listeners are, in a nutshell: rather male (77%); relatively young (45% are 25-35 years old, another 24% are 35-44); well-educated (38% have a graduate degree; another 43% have a bachelor’s degree); and — according to the survey data at least — pretty well-off (17% earn more than $150,000 and another 23% earn between $100,000 and $150,000; then there are the 14% who earn between $0 and $30,000, most of whom are likely students).
Here is a graph showing the distribution of occupations
Also, they are obviously interested in economics and unlike the case in the Good wife episode, it will be clear from the context that Bitcoin is a real thing and not a figment of some scriptwriter's imagination.
15.
Post 7012981 (copy this link) (by hannesnaude) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):