Big or small exchange? Which is better? I doubt big ones more possibly hacked?

Really， is Chinese traffic fake?  Huobi and Okcoin are both transaction free. Also leverage trade is helpful for big traffic?

Days ago, Okcoin announced testing leverage trade, offering clients p2p platform for borrow/lend cny/btc/ltc.
Could this be the explanation for okcoin's overpass on Huobi? We know, Huobi started leverage shortly after setup last year.

At okcoin,cheapest rate for borrowing cny/btc/ltc are 0.24/0.1/0.28%, on daily basis, but test transaction seems very quiet.

Hi, Jorge, good to connect you. I like your analogy of great-great-great grandfather's map for island gold. My hyping bitcoin to friends as an investment was wrong, at current phase.

Okcoin set out leverage test on Friday., Mar/07. BTCChina added LTC on Mar/02,

Is it a question of " chicken or egg, which is first", at the beginning stage?

I understand distinguishing transactions into A and B is for tracing the success of bitcoin? What is that theory exactly?

I tend to see either A or B will  lead bitcoin to success, just on different levels. A, success as a currency. B, success as internet gold.

Inherent in nature as a transfer method, if bitcoin will succeed as internet gold(class B), it will succeed as a currency (class A)，by nature.

If that will be true, can we just include ABC all as adoption?   How do we check adoption growth?

Aren't they the two sides of same coin, freedom vs control, or centralization vs governance?

Each side has its boundary, failing which the coin won't form or just collapse.

My wonder is how the other side of bitcoin will form?

Ownership, I'm not 100% about it. The secrecy nature of  bitcoin challenges ownership. This is a fundamental problem, methinks.

P2P, freedom, privacy etc are good, but slippery ownership is not good, not at all.

The community will self organize a better ownership? But how, can we guess? This would be very interesting.

I don't see anything left. Things left are all self contradictory.

For example, Cryptocurrency is claimed by China as commodity, not currency. But how can one get that commodity besides mining? By regulation, All banks or payment processors are forbidden to link with exchanges. This means one just can not buy bitcoin on an exchange, as he can't credit his fiat into an exchange in an allowed way.

This results in a funny situation. Exchanges, banks and traders are all doing openly, but not allowed by government. Do I understand correctly.

My question is, why the Chinese government banned Cryptocurrency but allows everything going?

and the worst of the GOX situation has already been absorbed into bitcoin prices..

 I wonder what fresh whales would consider.  Would they jump in? They might think, where is the
transparency, where is security, and where is secrecy?

Interestingly, a bitcoin activist claimed he had big bitcoins trapped in mtgox, but the hacked documents proved he had little balance, showing he lied, and furthermore,  he also had lied that he had only stocked and never sold.

Seems to me, the worst of the GOX situation might have already been absorbed into bitcoin prices, but we are far from an uptrend. Behind, the fundamental problems in transparency, security, etc are still out there.

No. I conclude this myself. Anyway, activists have right to push for their good, by all means he can. Others have right to be pushed or not.

Interesting, average tip btc $6.95,  doge $ 0.26. Is it too big for btc tipping and too little for doge tipping? How much is a normal tip in USD?

I don't understand why BIT wish to drive price down and then liquidate their bitcoins. This undermines their customers and does no good for themselves. Or I'm not smart enough to understand what is it ?

What a standard ratio btc/ltc the market should give ? For what reason? Anyone has thought of this?

The last peak was 0.05 plus.

Thanks for the explanation. I see the logic.

Average buy-in is also my buying policy. It seems USD 600 is fairly low but who knows to which area it will be heading down and how long it will last at that area?

 For example, if price goes down to area usd 300 and remain for 1 year, I will be very frustrated with my average buy-in policy, as my stock is already heavy, repeating last average shares compensate very little  to my cost, unless I increase average share by 3times or more. Regrettably my financial position does not allow 3x.

Does a simple average buy-in works on bitcoin?

How do we know a lot of Chinese buy on credit?  Chinese traders buy mainly for its volatility (or rising price) . They liquidate because of low volatility rather than credit. Methinks. This seems also an explanation for very low volume. Make sense?

2) with a crashing RMB, BTC could be a better store of value.
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Indeed, if rmb is to crash, buying bitcoin is a good policy, not only because of the yuan rate, but also of free transit in case of any currency transportation ban.

But till today, I do not see this happening. Huobi's price remains lower for past weeks, in which period chinese yuan went down by nearly 3%. This probably means Chinese traders only speculate on bitcoin price itself, not the yuan rate, yet.

I personally feel that all business startups are Ponzi schemes, say computer, internet, etc. Ponzi is the pattern how the universe operates. It's not a matter of good or bad but a matter of true or false. A Ponzi scheme can only be true by more and more people joining in to the extent that whole community can not live without it. I hope I'm correct here.

The only chance for bitcoin scheme to be true is to let more and more people join in, until the day people can not live without it. Standing at this point though, no body knows whether this will happen. Those who bet bitcoin will win must realize this is a gamble, or currently at Ponzi stage. It could turn out true, or turn out false as well. And they should tell new investors this, if they like. If they don't, that's their right.

What they should not do is telling its a winwin investment by hyping  people to join in,  some even in an excuse 'religious' of freedom, which is not good, methinks.

Human beings are very tiny and thus passionate. I agree TA is a proper method to be realistic.

Despite so, I still wish to be passionate once again, and this time I bet on bitcoin. I set at the very beginning that if bitcoin win I win, if bitcoin lose I lose. I accept bitcoin to lose at zero.

The thing left is, if bitcoin wins, there is a chance I lose. That would be very bad. Hodl is one of the ways I agree, the other way I see is to buy as cheap as possible, mathmatically.

Either way ignores TA. Have to. These are two ends of spectrum, though we have to understand each other.

Does that mean there won't any meaningful audit for exchanges account?

Indeed this is obvious. Why all the experts don't see this? Or, people do not want to see?

Any chance to have real audit? Does a real audit mean that must be anominated?

I do not see Chinese exchanges will be closed by deadline of April 15, or 18th.

Why is that? We must read pboc properly. The director of pboc says bitcoin is a kind of asset. This implies they have no right to ban bitcoin. Indeed, how one can ban an asset, which is claimed legimatated to own?

However, the pboc has right to forbid his currency, rmb yen to link with bitcoin. This what they are doing.

They are doing links cut, not bitcoin ban. The deadline is for links cut, not for bitcoin ban. This is important to read, methinks.

Because of above, the Chinese exchanges won't be closed, they can legally operate, as far as I see. Indeed, what excuse the Chinese government would generate to close the exchanges, while bitcoin is claimed a legal asset for own and trade?

This is something like, I have no right to kill you, but I have right not to supply you water, as this is my water.

It would be interesting to see how the exchanges operate with rmb yen link cut.

From the claim of Huobi and okcoin of today, they both have same solution.

One,  due to links cut through banks, they can do prepaid card. I read such prepaid card is like Q coin. One buys the card, which give you a code. With the code, one can input his money into the exchange. For withdrawal, the other way round. Stricketly speaking, I feel it is still a third party pay? It's difficult for me to read but I know when we Chinese say third party pay, we mean  payment processor like Alipay, which is of course different from Q coin. Can anyone give further explanation of the Huobi and okcoin's prepaid card?

Two, for the last solution, both Huobi and okcoin has registered oversea exchanges. Both claim if prepaid card doesn't work, or exchanges has to be closed, all the coins they have now will be moved to the new oversea exchanges. This is indeed a comfor for their clients.

Can anyone tell me why pboc cut the links between rmby yen and bitcoin, while they confirm bitcoin is a legal asset for own and trade? Wired, isn't it?

Agree. What I say links cut is not quite right. People are legitimated to buy BTC with CNY, but not via banks. I would change the analogy as , one can have water, but can not have the glass, as the glass is mine.

Is it something like P2P? Any way pboc can  stop such P2P? Or they have  to close the exchange?

BTW, OKcoin announces today, clients can still input money through banks , but thru Construction Bank instead of Merchant Bank. This is also wired. Why some banks does not follow PBOC?

Another question, why PBOC only instructs banks by oral, no written Notice? Clearly pboc DO have such instruction, but Why they do this so grey?

I heard that the distribution of "unknown" mining pools has increased to current 30% from last Dec. 5%  Is this true?

Could the increase be from China, with some political power, as rumored?

I agree China sets the price. But who of the Chinese set the price?  Chinese capitalist who have back doors with PBOC? Or those school teenagers who are active in Chinese bitcoin forums?

Mm, last time it was Mtgox, this time it's China. How long will we pass through these rumors, greys, truths from China?

Yes, buying the coupon is the only legal way. The difference is, having blocked bitcoin from commerce, the government further blocks it from the masses.

Consequently, no fresh fiat will be coming in from China, as I understand.

As I understand, recharge code system is still a kind of third party system, but pboc does not allow "third party" to connect exchanges. If pboc wishes, he can stop recharge code system at any time, obviously.

But pboc will probably not ban recharge code system.  Why? I read pboc as follows.

Pboc has little interest in bitcoin/exchanges. If bitcoin is blocked from commerce, everything is ok for them. Their full attention has been on the "third party payment processor" and "internet P2P loans", who are eating bank's cake, quickly and greatly.

The so called No. 10 Notice from PBOC( reported by media on Sat.) tells that pboc's current major aim is on third party payment processors, not bitcoin. To limit the daily and per transaction volume, to double authenticate clients accounts, to share full transaction information with banks, all these steps are aiming to weaken payment processors.

These payment processors are already very strong and play important role in Chinese commerce. Further, some strong ones  like Alipay  also have supports from political powers. This is a great challenge and headache for pboc.

Bitcoin and the exchanges are peanuts. Pboc has little interest and  not much time to consider that it could become more competitive than payment processors. But bitcoin is in the category of " Internet finance" ( same as payment processor), pboc's policy towards bitcoin/exchanges is included in the polices towards payment processors.

So, we need to follow pboc's movements towards payment processors, not bitcoin itself.  PBoc can not ban payment processors, can not block them prom commerce, the only thing they are trying hard to do is to weaken them. Difficult but have to though.

Coming to bitcoin, PBOC is much more tougher, as they can do so while they can not with payment processors. It doesn't mean they have more interest. They have banned bitcoin from commerce, they have banned bitcoin from banks, they have banned bitcoin from third party payment processors. What else they have not banned?

Yes, They have not banned bitcoin from recharge code system, which is also a kind of third party payment. BUT remember, such third party payment is different from which pboc aims at  - strong payment processor like Alipay.

I predict boldly if I may, bad news from China has come to an end, though good news should not be expected in anyway, in any foreseen future.

How's the future for Chinese exchanges? Anyone could give a clue? I have some difficulty to imagine.

Moving offshore? It's hard for me to imagine how this can attract fresh Chinese mainland clients. Even for old clients, how this would proceed?

A P2P exchange system for bitcoin? What is it?  It's even harder to imagine. I have some difficulty understanding that p2p can expand to a large scale without a third party guarantee. Is it by nature, due to human trust, that a third party guarantee is necessary for p2p trades?

How is it like? Mind giving more words?

Thanks. Difficult, need to digest.

Indeed, remitting offshore is quite expensive, about 4-5% banking charges for both ends. Besides, one has to convert CNY to hard currency like usd first. There is a limit for the convert, usd50,000 per annum.

Moving offshore seems not a better choice than delivering cash to exchange counters. Or am I too narrow minded not realizing other advantages?

The market expects more buyers to follow in the coming week, so they have to cover on weekends?

I expect a further sharp rally in the coming week.

Seems the same thing happened last weekend.

551 at bitfinex. Hodl till the moon!

See the volume. Bitfinex  exceeds bitstamp and btc-e. Anyone explains?

Indeed China is falling behind. This trip to da moon was started by the west.

592 at bitfinex. What happened?

what are the differences between gamble, venture investment and normal investment?

I DO think buying bitcoin was a gamble at the beginning stage,  but as  adoption is expanding with its innovative technology, I tend to upgrade from gamble to venture investment.

Will such venture investment succeed? Indeed I feel like something similar as odd gambling. Still I feel some differences there, but can not tell. Anyone gives more explanation?

Have you ever tried receiving payments from abroad? It is exceptionally expensive and time-consuming to send money to Brazil from a foreign country by regular banking channels. Bitcoin facilitates this tremendously, and is used by many. Is that not enough to be considered successful?
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How many people in this thread using bitcoin moving money abroad?  if one uses, indeed he will find bitcoin fantastic. One thing I tend to be sure is that the payment technology behind bitcoin will be successful.

Still, the success of payment technology does not necessarily mean success of bitcoin, I think.

It is quite a headache for me to imagine: if Switzerland decides to stop Swiss Francs and turn them all into a crypto swisscoin, what will happen to bitcoin?

I understand you mean liquidation? I agree, bitcoin is the first priority in moving money abroad, in liquidation perspective.

What about swisscoin, if it happens? Will you take swisscoin or bitcoin? Which one is with larger market cap?

I would say, if a government changes mind and to integrate its currency with bitcoin technology, what will happen to bitcoin( the coin)? Anyone give comment on such scenario?

It does matter, in my opinion. Hostile or skeptical government is a good thing for bitcoin, as it gives time for bitcoin to grow, to overtake altcoins. If one of the governments turns and integrates its currency with bitcoin technology, the "integrated fiat" will overtake bitcoin.

Clearly, if that happens, people in this thread won't get rich through the venture.

I noticed that Huobi's price was usd $10 lower than that of bitstamp, coming to current equavalent, or enen slightly higher.

This tells that the banking system has not cut out. No only so, it might indicate fresh fiat is flowing in. Anyone has different reading?

Hmm.., could be possible that the sentiment of remained Chinense capital  is more panic than western, killing the price difference of $10?

 I think it more probabile more flowing in fiat does not.

Reasons could be complicated I must admit. It could also be money from litecoin and other altos flowing into bitcoin.

600.92 bitfinex

Thanks for the reminding. It did happen on me during last rally. I thought I was for the great good but when the bubble collapsed, I realized I cheated myself. Very happy another rally is probably coming and this time I would not cheat myself.

On the other hand, I totally agree the say that the great good has been  mostly  started by greed.  That could be a good say for me to re-position myself.

604 at stamp, 612 at finex!

Really TA is something beyond my ability as I'm lazy spending time learning it. Because of my inability, I found it wired.

I must admit TA is not wired but useful in many cases, for many people. For me, I would just leave it as it gives me more uncertainty.

The certain thing under my territory is to buy dollar average cost and hodl, until my expectation appears. I wish this  works with bitcoin this time.

Sorry, should be 'weird'.

Mathematics is of course not weird, neither chaos and fractal, as they tell  the nature.

But  Is nature predictable or not? That spins my brain.

I see TA is based on induction for probability. For the incapables like me, I find such induction turns out very weak in many cases. And that further spins my brain. I conclude TA is beyond my ability and not my cup of tea.

Interestingly, whenever I used TA for my policy, I got my face slashed in one side, and if I sticked to TA, I got my face slashed in the other side.

Anyone explains me why TA is so weird towards me?

Really! I can't imagine how average Joes are still brave enough to flow in with pboc's gun on the back?

Hm, clearly the money flow is not cut out but it isn't sufficient for why China is taking lead again.

Why China is taking the lead again, even though money flow in is more complicated than other areas?

-Chinese are real bitcoin believers?
-chinese are more greedy?
-chinese whales are special?

What else?

For the educated, I wonder whether Chinese population is really bigger?

I tend to believe the main reason lies in RMB yuan. Chinese people has less confidence in their currency than other areas. Before Yuan collapses, China may inevitably take lead.

 Huobi is currently $10 higher than that of stamp. Will China take lead for this rally again? If so, why China always takes lead?

Irration does not explain this. There must be something else behind.

Fresh money is needed but there hasn't been enough than fresh coin supply. How do I get that conclusion? Not really I am in a position to occlude anything but that is my agreement with one of the sayings.

How TA would tell where we probably go and for how long?

Hmm, that's a great model, isn't it? One can aford losing all, and can be always in a position buying when price falls.

I failed to adapt that model. Pathetically, I bot too heavy  during the peak. My remaining capital does not compensate if market falls further.

What shall I do? I've got to hodl, and buy regularly to lower my average, with my affordable allowance. Any one give me some suggestions?

Buying a little bit to lower average.

Wondering why people expect btc to rise to usd10k? for what reason they believe in this?

From Wikipedia: Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2).

With Metcalfe's law, bitcoin is indeed quite promising, as the users have been increasing and are expected to increase further.

This means the value of bitcoin is increasing. Could this argument be valid?

It is quite a surprise that there's no concrete information confirming increasing users,  though news is flying daily for more adoption!

Giving it a careful consideration, I agree Jorge's comment. Anyone have different opinion.

If users are not convinced to increase, Metcalfe's law is not valid for bitcoin. How do we get to be convinced for increasing users?

Being a holder,  I wish to have some encouraging information. However, the information needs to be convincing.

Seriously, a hodler's combination of information is unavoidably with prejiduce and that is always my problem.

 Adoption/wallets are inductive for increasing users. But, I tend to believe it may double if price double overnight ( which is also inductive).

Isn't this very strange? I thought coinbase could always buy at exchanges to cover their btc stock.

They can't? Why? How do they cover their btc stock?

Does it mean Coinbase itself is an exchange, and now they are using out their btc stock? Everyone is buying btc and no one selling?

if so,  how do they know there will surely be some btc selling at Coinbase before next open on 01.40am Aug 22?

Hodling but sad having no fiat to cover for Aug.

How do we know the consequence is inevitable that the next generation is 5-200million buying in?

That's why I'm uneasy about projections like "the use of bitcoin will increase 1000x, therefore the price will rise 1000x". I believe the first part, but I don't think the second part follows necessarily.

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That's quite advisory. Increasing user was not the only element for price, velocity is as well. If user increases and circulation quickens, price will not necessarily increase! Anyone comment on this?

Is it saying, the more bitcoin is used, the more pressured price is?

It's not persuasive. If shadow banking sector stalled, the Chinese security market wouldn't have had been so firm.

The crypto bulb popped, no fresh money coming in. Is it simple as that? I've got to hodl with my average cost high in the sky.

Why it happens so often that a few thing hit at the same time in a bearish market? Is it managed by a manipulator? Or anyone give me a philosophical explanation?

It's strange that people quite often have the same fictional pattern in a bearish market. This clearly makes the market even more bearish! It's hard to understand its only fictional.

Tax system is necessary for human community, isn't it? I thought it was common knowledge.

Whether taxes are spent properly is a different issue, isn't it?

Those who survived without tax can not say other people do not need tax support. If they say so, they don't really need bitcoin as well, as they don't need community.

Humans are social, by nature. Bitcoin will have to go well with tax. But, it does not necessarily go well with fiat!

Hahaaa, interesting comment. I think the extrapolation isn't proper but I'm confused and not in a position to argue. Any one comment on the extrapolation?

Really? I thought one could have endless wallets, and that's the reason why wallet increasing is not necessarily a true correlation to user increasing.

Well, if one can have only one wallet or at most ten wallets at blockchain. Info, things are different. But is it really true?