All posts made by OROBTC in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 18045060 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
Aleppo is currently a war zone. Which do you think the refugees would currently be better off trying to smuggle out of the city, bitcoin or gold? Which would be easier? Hmmm?
I was looking into bitcoin in Venezuela after hearing people claim you could buy months of food for 1oz of silver. I looked into what bitcoin was going for there thinking it would also have a huge premium and it seems instead of a premium, bitcoin goes for less money than in normal, functioning countries lol. I guess it makes sense because complex systems don't jump to more complexity when they implode (bitcoin), they go back to a more simple state.
A big problem for outsiders re BTC and Venezuela (same comment from here as to re Aleppo) is that Venezuela has nothing to offer (other than large oil exports, though getting smaller, to China, etc.). So someone wants to send BTC to their family in Venezuela. How do they spend it there, who would take it?
If you were to try to send BTC, and get something worthwhile for it, how? Venezuelans can barely export themselves! They would not be allowed to bring out (nor send out) anything of value. PERHAPS one could travel there and spend BTC to the right people (hotel owners), but that just would mean a cheaper trip...
Gold & silver would be more accepted there, but what would you get for it? Coke & hookers?
Re taking gold out of Venezuela could probably only be done in small quantities (say 0.25 - 0.5 oz per trip: metal detectors at the airport!).
BTC could be taken out as well, either in a small hardware wallet or even a cloud wallet like blockchain.info.
2.
Post 18106463 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
It's a bloodbath.
What did you expect with huge fees and congestion of the network?
Fiverr.com just dropped Bitcoin as a payment method since fees are amounting to 20-40% of all bitcoin transactions.
Good Game, it was fun while it lasted.
The idiots over at Kore ruined this rally.
It's ugly, $1188.
IMO, much of this can indeed be blamed squarely on those (core developers and miners) who just cannot seem to get their acts together and actually solve problems.
And they keep saying Bitcoin is strong. Mmm-hmm...
3.
Post 18756979 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
This morning's action is making my coffee really enjoyable.
BTW, we just broke $1300USD at Bitcoinaverage. Fun indeed.
Each of the sites I look at have prices at over $1300 as well.
Bitcoin price just passed gold -- that is only the second time that has ever happened, the first was a few weeks ago.
Imagine what might happen if they
RESOLVE the SegWit v. BU Civil War...
4.
Post 19099366 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
Zero Conf are generally not safe, however, they are reasonable safe as long as they satisfy a few criteria:
1. No detected double spend attempts within 10 seconds after first seeing the transaction on the network.
2. Has paid at least the minimum transaction fee shown on
https://bitcoinfees.21.co/3. Has propagated to about 80% to 90% of nodes on the network.
^^ And that is excellent information.
From here on (at least for a while), I will be paying more than is suggested by bitcoinfees.21. Most of my (outgoing anyway) trx are important (to me), and I want a fast confirmation. So, I pay up. I don't want my $200 trx held up for a long time because I am too cheap.
Speed is important for me.
(And thank you, Dabs, for helping me to get started w/ PGP several months ago, I use it fairly frequently)
5.
Post 20136280 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.13h):
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It will still be some 10 days or so before I can get my grubby hands on more BTC (now traveling "Beyond the Pale of Bitcoin"). But, I will be ready. Price keeps coming down until then, more BTC for me.
And that should work well IF the wankers fix the scaling problem(s) OK by August 1. If not, erm.......
6.
Post 21883591 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.21h):
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Bummer I was asleep when BTC went below $3000. Nor could I get anymore today, busy...
7.
Post 25044679 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.28h):
mempool spam *check
bch pump *check
tether/bitfinex fud *check
WO bears active *check
bitcointalk ddos *missing
get ready for bitcoin black friday sales, I see a bigger weekend dip coming! get them while they are cheap!
Ready!
ready now! Out of the country, have to wait until we get back to Gringolandia to buy (if it goes down sharply).
8.
Post 40678842 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
The scariest part of this drop is that there isn't even any major FUD driving it. It's not like last time where there was the China ban and Gox and major exchange issues happening left and right. The drop is just happening naturally on it's own. What is going to happen when the real FUD begins?
Parelleling this phenomena is the continiously unanimous bullishness in the forum. Charts always with some upwards plot and bulls popping champagne and posting rockets every time there is a 5% rise, and circle jerking eachother 'oh yes that's a great analysis, just how I see it. excellent work. and things will be even more bullish after XYZ conference. we could take this further and add an extra digit or two.' (as the bottom is being challenged on low volume)
I could see this coming from a mile away because bitcoin is just a derivative of the dollar. When browsing random crap on Amazon lately, I noticed that every single manufacturer of several products were all having to slash prices big in order to try and move anything, indicating the mainstream consumer is completely tapped out and we're tilting back towards deflationary collapse again. Also, places like Bank of America just added a $10 a month fee just to have a checking account there, indicating banks are losing money and desperate too.
So yea, probably get ready for the next 2008 soon. Contrary to random noob's opinions on this forum, bitcoin cannot be pump and dumped in the middle of a deflationary collapse since all it is is a dollar derivative, while also being a high risk asset and miles away from the base of Exter's Pyramid.
HODLing crypto and gold seems to be the right answer.
Diversification and all.
NO ONE knows what the future will bring. Hedge accordingly.
What if we live in a inverse Exter 's pyramid time? I think you are mistaking this one Roach. In the run up to the crisis, yes BTC will suffer. But then it will inverse, just as precious ones... .
9.
Post 44630934 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.05h):
Anyone parking their retirement funds in this at this stage is a twat.
I am a twat.
Twat #2 checking in.
If 1% of my net is in BTC (if 1% counts), then Twat #4 dropping by. If someone only has 1% in Bitcoin, then the downside is very limited. Should BTC go to, say, $40,000, then that 1% changes to around 5%. That risk:reward profile looks pretty good to me.
10.
Post 51960554 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
Disregard shitcoins. Acquire physical silver.
Agree re shitcoins other than change to:
Acquire physical gold and/or physical platinum. Silver requires too much space. Only reason to hold more than 1 kg or so of Ag is if you think TEOTWAWKI is coming... For holding larger wealth, Au is best. Pt is also good, especially if you are an optimist, if you think the world economy will continue to grow.
It's OK to HDOL 1% (or more, depending) of net assets in BTC.
11.
Post 51964657 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
Roach - the biggest risk to the global economy is deflation. There is zero need for PMs in a deflationary environment. PMs are for fighting inflation. But inflation is dead, buried, gone.
Production is soaring, and production costs globally are failing through the floor due to technological and social innovation. Moore’s Law still rules, except it has migrated from the hardware level to the software level. No one can raise prices in the supply chain - they would be destroyed. Deflation is not going anywhere.
Your post is completely nonsensical and is like a college freshman talking about theory without actually knowing how things work in practice. If someone owes $300k for a mortgage and deflation occurs, that amount due may now be equivalent to $600k instead through deflation. One way or another they're going to default even if you make it illegal to default. Everyone and their mom is either going to walk away from those loans or be unable to pay and all banks collapse.
A college freshman (the brain of HairyMaclairy) would look at deflation and think it's good for banks because their relative profits from loans should increase. In reality, they take a bath on every single loan and die. When the banks implode, fiat then has a value of zero and Exter's Pyramid takes play where the value of all assets on earth is simply divided by the number of above ground ounces of physical gold and silver. Metals win in either deflationary or inflationary collapse. Bitcoin is useless in deflationary collapse and it's value would be nothingness.
Gold did very well in the deflation of the 1930s.
While gold would certainly be hit in a stock market crash (as everyone would need $ liquidity), it is likely that gold would drop in price less than most other investment assets.
realr0ach is correct that the banks would be in grave danger in a deflationary environment. Debts are extremely toxic in deflation. Not to mention derivatives... We have not had a real deflation in the USA since the 1930s. Many of the economic rules we (mostly) believe in get turned around 180 degrees in a deflation (look at the perverse effects of NIRP,
where you make money by borrowing it in Europe.)
* * *
It is, of course, possible that BTC would drop LESS than stocks (etc.) in a crash or extended bearish environment. BTC has not been around long enough for us to know what would happen in a market event like 2008-2009.
12.
Post 51989281 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
Blocks are nice and empty at the moment if anyone wants to consolidate. Just had a 20 sat transaction clear in first block I think.
20 sat/b is way too high for next block inclusion.
Thinking about a post on how to calculate optimal fees and stuff.
Every sat count!
Keeping stacking Satoshi!
There are at least 3 or 4 tx fee estimators.
The Bitcoin Core QT wallet includes one, but it's never been very accurate. Electrum has a couple of better ones built in too.
The best reference I used for the past several months, maybe since a couple of years already is this one:
https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/api/v1/fees/recommendedCurrently:
fastestFee 10
halfHourFee 4
hourFee 2
If I'm not in a hurry, I use the hour fee. Or somewhere in between those numbers. I rarely use anything higher than the fastest fee.
Very alert there guys. You just saved me some money as I just consolidated. I went with the suggested regular fee at two of my wallets, fees are very low (paid approx. 3 sats/byte). Let's see how long it takes them clear.
Dabs, you helped me once long ago, thanks! Thanks to all of you!
EDIT: in just 5 minutes or so, both transactions went through.
13.
Post 52019884 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
Gold reacted badly to the news, selling off with rates. Now it's bouncing back to day High.
Bitcoin doesn't give a f.ck.
Anybody noticed it is the first (and first one of a series) FED cut since 2008?
This means it's the first FED easing cycle since Bitcoin came into existence, challenging low interest rates world.
Good luck central Banksters!
Excellent observation.
Gold has traditionally done well in low interest (and lowering interest) environments.
It will be very interesting to follow BTC price in the weeks to come. It will, after all, be
easy to remember today's price ($10k) when Powell and Company cut the Fed Funds Rate.
14.
Post 52064245 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
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Chinese Yuan down to 7 / USD, a record low. Kyle Bass says this has just started:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-04/currency-war-begins-chinese-yuan-crashes-past-7usd-record-lowAsian stocks down hard. US and German stock futures down hard. Gold is up a tiny bit.
What will happen in Hong Kong this week?
BTC at +/- $11,400. No surprise...
Edited for additional info
15.
Post 52085050 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.58h):
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r0ach HATES crypto, I get that, but his commentary ought to be read by anyone here at W.O. who is over 30 - 35 or so...
Gold just touched $1500, and is at new ATHs in various FIAT$ around the world.
I have always believed in serious diversification. I HODL BTC (plenty!), and watch it every day. A pot-watcher.
Nonetheless, gold has 6000 years of proven value. That IS meaningful. Whether or not it retains its role into the future as the numeraire of all value assets remains to be seen (of course). That is why diversification is so important.
NO ONE knows what will happen. Not Shelby, not r0ach. But, having an open mind is a great and wonderful thing.
16.
Post 52294895 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.59h):
Just curious, why silver and not gold?
Gold has been a better investment most of the time.
1) The gold to silver ratio chart highly favors silver
2) Silver is the most artificially downward rigged commodity on the entire planet in the futures market and the goal is to buy low sell high
3) There's something like 1/4th the amount of above ground silver now as during the 1980's metals bull run while there's twice as much above ground gold since then. Hard to quantify the exact supply numbers, but they favor a massive silver spike moreso than gold in any type of 'free market'.
4) To prevent silver from being depleted and disappearing like it's current trajectory, the price will eventually have to go to several hundred dollars an ounce to warrant recycling in things like electronics
5) In any type of monetary metals revaluation, the west has a huge shortfall in gold with probably somewhere between 0 to 2000 tons only, so would likely attempt to buffer the gold shortfall with silver valued at a high ratio like 10-20:1 instead.
6) All other things being equal, silver has better fundamentals than gold due to having more use cases. Commodity money works under the context that if you hoard the entire supply, people somewhere actually need the commodity resource for something and you can ask whatever the market can bear. Conversely, since Bitcoin is not a real commodity or resource, if you hoard all 21 million the entire planet can just laugh at you and you have no power over anyone or anything.
Whaddayaknow. r0ach does a quotable.
would have even more bragging rights (for traders) if he had mentioned RHODIUM's three month spike in price, up some 50% since 30 May (from some $2850 per oz to some $4450 today (depending on who's quoting), up over $100 since yesterday):
https://apps.catalysts.basf.com/apps/eibprices/mp/DPCharts.aspx?MetalName=Rhodium%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20&Market=EIBRhodium is a platinum group metal, very rare, used in automotive catalysts, searchlights and as the watchface numerals in some Rolex watches.
You know, in case you care. :p
Unlike r0ach, I'd rather hold
Au over Ag.
17.
Post 52294939 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.59h):
Oh wow. I stand corrected.
Have never heard of a loss carry back.
Thank you - you taught me something today.
I withdraw my prior comments.
Your welcome my very gracious friend.
I learned more than I wanted about the
insanely complex tax code as an entrepreneur.
as stated before, my primary objection to the whole goddamned thing
The US Tax Code is a disgrace. And it hurts entrepreneurship grievously. And it may get worse if (well, politics is best left unmentioned).
* * *
jojo69, you have a message! I don't comment that much here anymore, mostly lurk.
18.
Post 52410289 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.01h):
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... wall of text removed for your viewing pleasure...
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Sell Price BTC balance BTCSell Amt Pfolio$Value soldValue soldTotal
$47,478.00 7.00000000 0.00000000 $332,346.00 $0.00 $0.00
$47,478.00 7.00000000 1.40000000 $332,346.00 $66,469.20 $66,469.20
$56,973.60 5.60000000 1.12000000 $319,052.16 $63,810.43 $130,279.63
$68,368.32 4.48000000 0.89600000 $306,290.07 $61,258.01 $191,537.65
$82,041.98 3.58400000 0.71680000 $294,038.47 $58,807.69 $250,345.34
$98,450.38 2.86720000 0.57344000 $282,276.93 $56,455.39 $306,800.73
$118,140.46 2.29376000 0.45875200 $270,985.85 $54,197.17 $360,997.90
$141,768.55 1.83500800 0.36700160 $260,146.42 $52,029.28 $413,027.18
$170,122.26 1.46800640 0.29360128 $249,740.56 $49,948.11 $462,975.29
$204,146.71 1.17440512 0.23488102 $239,750.94 $47,950.19 $510,925.48
$244,976.05 0.93952410 0.18790482 $230,160.90 $46,032.18 $556,957.66
$293,971.26 0.75161928 0.15032386 $220,954.47 $44,190.89 $601,148.56
$352,765.51 0.60129542 0.12025908 $212,116.29 $42,423.26 $643,571.81
$423,318.62 0.48103634 0.09620727 $203,631.64 $40,726.33 $684,298.14
$507,982.34 0.38482907 0.07696581 $195,486.37 $39,097.27 $723,395.42
$609,578.81 0.30786326 0.06157265 $187,666.92 $37,533.38 $760,928.80 |
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...this space for rent...
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nah mate, you are doing it wrong... A real HODLER sells 7 BTC at $609,578.81 for a nice stack of $ 4,267,051.6 (fresh printed bills) and starts livin´ la vida loca.
Just kidding.. thats a very smart cash out program, and i should do that the next bullrun.
I´m living on ramen and noodles for being a HODLER since 2017...
The above would be similar to what I have in mind as a BTC speculator. Note term "speculator", that is what JJG and _javi_ are advocating. And there's nothing wrong with that, I too am speculating with BTC. Again, the above is similar to my own plans.
But, do note that all three of us are planning to SELL BTC. And, presumably, BUY something else. And what to buy...? I know what I want.......
But, of course, owning BTC also has a tremendous advantage that we all know about but rarely discuss:
mobility. So, however high BTC rises, I will keep some around for the freedom of movement it would support.
[Edited for clarity]
19.
Post 52420407 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.01h):
They look nice. If I started such collection, I would be accused of collecting shiny objects.
Collecting shiny objects? Say it ain't so...
20.
Post 52420987 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.01h):
there he is
ZH OG
reminds me how much I miss building little stonehenges out of 100oz bars since the boating accident
They tell me there are lots of dangerous lakes there in Europe. And they're deep. And the water is so cold, well, I'm afraid any stacks are gone for good. Pity.
Maybe taking along precious stuff (inc. Ledgers with their 24 words) is not such a great idea after all. But, taking all that stuff along with me has always seemed like a great idea. Who wants to keep all that in some dark place at home anyway?
21.
Post 52729909 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.04h):
Maybe I'm reading the graph wrong, but it looks to me like ~10,500 addresses holding 1000 BTC (or more) would mean that those addresses (not wallets w/ more than one address) would own:
10,500 addys * 1000 BTC =
BTC10,500,000
Or well over 50% of the BTC mined so far...
Maybe it's wallets holding over $1000 worth of BTC? The twitter link sort of suggests that too.
22.
Post 52730006 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.04h):
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@ Biodom
OK, I read the graph wrong, I see that your explanation makes more sense. Thank you.
In particular, it looks like I read the axes wrongly.
23.
Post 52865608 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
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r0ach points (505920, last page) to a very interesting website for anyone interested in materials and related sciences.
There are big differences between the relative abundances of many of the heavier metals in the Earth's crustal rocks and those in the universe as a whole. In general, the heavier metals to a great degree may have sunk towards the Earth's core early on, perhaps that might explain why it seems strange that heavier metals, even in the same columns of the Periodic Chart, are more abundant than lighter ones (Ag more common than Au, Ir vs. Rh, etc.). Iridium is extremely scarce (the second rarest element) on Earth's surface.
Worthless but perhaps interesting trivia: Hassium (Hs, element 108, only a synthetic metal with an extremely short half-life) apparently has a density of
40 times that of water. The heaviest of the stable elements is Osmium clocking in at about 22.
[above posted to help keep anyone who is close to despair over low BTC price and needs something different today]
24.
Post 52866893 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
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A few years ago a man I respect very much suggested investing only as much as one would understand each investment (that I would now extend to "understand relative to other investments").
As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above. 1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be. Risks and rewards are both high. 1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me. If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great! BTC is better than a Lotto ticket, and has great potential as most of us agree.
JJG also demands taking personal responsibility for each person's investment, I agree 100% with that. If BTC goes to $2000, $100 or $0, well that cannot be the fault of taking some unknown commentator's analysis...
Both BTC and gold are worthy diversifications IMO.
* * *
Ha ha, vapourminer re 2011 - 2013. Those days ended for me, though, in late 2012. Lost my privileges, so to speak.
I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise... Take away my computer?
25.
Post 53012539 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
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LUCKMCFLY
Nice item! I have respected Dr. Paul since the late 1970s. He is a gentleman and a scholar. Interesting that BTC won in his poll. Gold in second place too...
* * *
jojo69
Yeah, don't have to bail out whales in BTC space, great observation.
Work? You don't have to use 4-letter words here...
26.
Post 53022231 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
This is just like 2015, I remember feeling that we were in quicksand. The only positive about this if it plays out the same for another 3-4 months is more time to buy.
I’d love to know what the price will be at the halving.
You just have to live until mid-May and then you will see and therefore know.
Go LFC, go.
By the way, I am thinking that BTC's price in mid-May 2020 will be higher than it is today, which makes buying today a good investment, but I am not much more than 50% sure. Maybe I am 55% sure. I have a little more confidence that BTC prices will be higher than they are today in 3.5 years to 5 years. I am NOT really able to predict too much beyond that, except on the positive side to say that we seem to have decently likely odds of experiencing various BTC price swings between now and 5 years from now that could range anywhere between $8,800 and $500k. I am around 75% positive of that... maybe even a bit more confident, which is expressing certainty from me.
Buy, HODL and accumulate BTC, as much as your
(this is not directed at just LFC - public thread, remember?) budget can tolerate without putting your ability to pay regular expenses in jeopardy... Play your ability to pay your regular expenses 6-18months into the future.. shorter periods if you are single and unobligated in terms of complexities and debt and longer if you have more responsibilities.
Make sure your finances are in order and then your psych is more likely to be in order
(also not guaranteed (look at Bob, for example.... hahahahaaha) ). You will thank me later (perhaps?
(of course, I know that part is far from guaranteed) ).
I have seen no convincing case that anyone can accurately predict future BTC prices, at least in the short to medium term. This dump today provides more evidence of that. I sure as hell didn't see that coming last night...
And while the S:F models may be right (if BTC does represent a big paradigm change as the poster suggested re the Netherlands last page), well that IS subject to the tremendous volatility we have all seen.
So, yeah, JJG offers excellent advice to everyone who wants
moar BTC. Take your time buying. Be patient in HODLing. Don't overbuy if you might need $$$ in the coming months for bills, unexpected expenses, etc. Don't overbuy unless you are young, as those of us who are older do not have time to recover from catastrophic losses from bad timing...
Try and think the long-game. That's what I'm doing.
27.
Post 53022359 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
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JJG
fillippone's comment 507835 on at page 25392. His comments on encryption, the Internet, etc. being similar to how the Netherlands developed their swampland and became a economic powerhouse is what I refer to. Sorry for the bad communication.
EDIT: Of course not all the story is written re BTC and the future of crypto. I recognize that it is very possible that a better crypto may come along in due course, although it looks like the current crop of Alts are, well, shitcoins for now.
28.
Post 53040780 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
BIG, GREEN dildo incoming!!!
Contrary to popular belief, it's the length, not the thickness that matters!
Just saw that bump up. Just over $9000 (preev.com) moments ago.
Wonder what's up?
29.
Post 53040844 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
The adoption will be massive in a very short time, since 50% of financial professionals believe that Bitcoin will surpass S&P 500 in 2020
According to a study carried out by Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency data analysis firm, across 350 professionals in the finance industry, 48.6% of them believe BTC will outshine S&P 500 index in growth rate in the next 12 months. Comparative to Bloomberg Barclays bond index, the housing index and equities, BTC emerged the favorite asset choice for the financial professionals in the short term.
Source:
https://www.coinness.com/news/455282I would agree with those pros, at least in this case.
Further, I think that BTC will outperform equities which will outperform bonds which will outperform housing.
Our lil ol family has just enough housing we own, and I think bonds may
WAY underperform (as at some point interest rates will go up).
Chainalysis did not put
gold as one of their choices I would note...
EDIT: Nor did Chainalysis mention that paying down DEBT is an investment too (where else are you going to "get" a savings of up to 18% (interest on credit card debt) that you would not pay in the future by unburdening yourself of credit card debt).
Debt is a killer if unwary.EDIT 2: Not an expert in much of the above.
Note that I have been wrong all three times I have participated in infofront's polls...
30.
Post 53042078 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
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JJG (yr comment 508059)
By nature I am a debt-averse guy. I also believe (big-time) in diversification.
The big institutions can indeed take advantage of ZIRP and maybe even NIRP, but no one will not pay me to borrow their money. Perhaps some of the very rich or well connected can take advantage of this environment to borrow.
But, I doubt that most of us are in that small club.
31.
Post 53103626 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
For years I have had the highest respect for N. N. Taleb. He was the guy who wrote the book (
The Black Swan), as well as some others on finance and how so many "experts" are
complete phonies.
Fooled by Randomness (I would start with this one if interested in his ideas) and
Antifragile are also extremely good reads of his.
A "Black Swan" is an unexpected, low probability event (usually negative) that has a large impact. Think 9/11... Unexpected. "Low Probability" (impossible to predict). HUGE impact.
32.
Post 53113239 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
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Voted $7500 in the poll. Historically I am wrong some 80% of the time in 50/50 short-term speculation (or even guessing), especially when it comes to money and infofront's polls (LOL). In the stock markets and everywhere else.
I should charge a service fee to announce my guesses (so that others could take the other side of my bets).
That same ~80% loss also pretty much matches my experiences in casinos, etc. I don't gamble well. Lesson learned for Bearing Guy: Don't speculate or gamble! It's now been years since I have gambled in a casino, even poker...
Note my experiences are better when I put my money down on longer-term investments (BTC and gold are good examples).
Edited for clarity
33.
Post 53113522 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
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Eek! preev.com just showed me $8125. I wonder what's up? (Down?)
Edited for clarity. Oh, now $8040..........
34.
Post 53133593 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
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Reasonably respected personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki mentions in his recent book Fake three kinds of money:
-- "God's Money" (gold and silver)
-- "People's Money" (Bitcoin)
-- "Government Money" (fiat = FRNs, taxes must be paid in $/FRNs)
He's good with two of the above three, I'll leave it to you guys to guess which one he does not like...
35.
Post 53133624 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
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Re Shelby Moore's theory of forced SegWit donations, I would suggest that there might be a way to see as the next months go by.
On the
Long range advance notice! thread, I mentioned several block winners (pools) and listed the first six alphanumerics of their receiving wallets. I examined 100 recent blocks to see who won, and their receiving addresses. I chose 100 to get a reasonable sample to examine (blocks 604143 - 604242). Of the 17 unique addresses (winners),
seven were SegWit (3....) or Native SegWit addresses (bc1q....).
The "3" and the "bc1q" addresses won 33 of those 100 blocks. My data is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pLWVImy9E8O9A3yY4RcwkL-HZeiAFTcSudu8oTpk90I/edit?usp=sharingI submit that the miners (who we presume are not dummies) will not allow their BTC from 3s to be stolen, so soon before we should expect that those SW receiving addresses would be changed to Legacy addresses (1....).
Perhaps all the advance notice we need is to observe if/when the above miners using SW addresses to switch them over to Legacy addresses in the run-up to (or perhaps just after) the May 2020 Halvening.If they suddenly start switching..., then they would probably have a very good reason.
Your comments encouraged!
36.
Post 53140972 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
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AlcoHoDL asked a reasonable set of questions. Not all of us have lots of time here at W.O. nor are programmers. We are all learning. I too would like to know the right answers. I don't like to spread any FUD nor anything negative.
Lauda replied with unnecessary venom. That likely means that s/he was having a bad day, even for a grumpy kitten. Lauda, I hope that your day is going better now.
Peace. <-- Lauda, get you some. You'll feel better.
37.
Post 53141076 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
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realr0ach
Our local CVS has a big sign advertising *FREE* flu shots now. Free, huh. Hmmm.
38.
Post 53253203 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
Innovation in
BTCRelatively new initiatives and show a more complete picture of Bitcoin stack technology.
Users when using Lightning can make transactions privately on the use of additional techniques and network layers, such as Tor, from here the percentage of private use of the lightning network can be estimated by analyzing the number of channel opening transactions in the chain compared to the number of public channels outside the chain.
Source:
https://medium.com/@LucasNuzzi/a-look-at-innovation-in-bitcoins-technology-stack-7edf877eab14Very interesting chart on innovations of Bitcoin. I hope to see many of these adopted as well as articles on how to use them.
BTC still needs a lot of work to become more secure, private and easy to use (yeah, I know some of those contradict to some degree). Still, ease of use will help both merchants and consumers consider using BTC. I am here in another country which has very, very little BTC usage, but is has grown since we were here some eight months ago.
39.
Post 53253555 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
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JJG
Makes me wonder what the (approx.) number of lost BTC there are out there... And I presume BTC will occasionally get lost as (we) boomers die off w/out telling anyone where we have them?
Smart HODL-ers may want to tell someone they trust how to get any HEDL BTC upon their deaths. Is there already a thread for this?
realr0ach
"Good fences make good neighbors." Been true for a long, long time.
V8s & bitserve
"Meme Greta" seems to be dying a quick death. Too embarrassing for the Warmers? Good riddance.
40.
Post 53254775 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
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JJG
Naah, just down here on vacation visiting my wife's family here in Peru. Our kid, her husband and our 5 month old grandson just arrived back to the states.
Been buying and hodling for a long time, though in 2017 I bought gold and platinum with as its (BTC) price rocketed up, although I missed the tip of the peak. Did very well in 2017 as my cost bases were very low. Paid my taxes too (USA).
Did not sell at all in 2018.
If we get back to, say, $12,000 (I did not sell any during the the mini-spike we recently had), I will probably sell some BTC. $15,000 probably some more. $20k, a tranche more. Etc. Numbers approximate, but consistent with what I did in 2017 (worked out very well then). But, I will HODL some always, at least until $100k or probably even higher.
41.
Post 53268699 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
This is effect ot the QE.
Easy money tide lift every boat.
Bitcoin hopelly will fix that.
Read Saifedean Ammous chapter on how hard money in the italian renaissance called for hard worked art (think about Michelangelo's frescoes on the Cappella Sistina).
Easy money calls for this .... i don't know how to define it.
This Everything Bubble is going to end very poorly. Easy Money for those connected. ZIRP and even NIRP. Whether it goes with a bang or with a long whimper, hey, I don't know.
Diversification and low/no debt look like winning positions to me.
42.
Post 53268717 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
Ya pueden ver, amigos?
That 1% (my BTC hodlings of my net) can mean something, more than one might think!
Vamos, pues...
43.
Post 53275874 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.09h):
As evidenced below: thanks for paying me in the last two days, Bob... that is why we are such buddy, buddies......
#NoHomo.I don't want to sound like a queer or nuthin, but, I took you off my ignore list just now... finally.
Please PLEASE
PLEASE try to work on editing your missives for less verbosity.
Unless it is merely coincidental, I have no plans to change my ways... hahahahaha Good luck.
Regarding my earlier post about the diptwat, the only one blah blah blah.. I hate drawing attention to the guy or his thread, but I really resent posting in any thread in which the OP (thread owner) has a penchant for deleting posts.
Although could be that any deleted post could be reposted in some thread in which substantive posts are not deleted.. to the extent that the deleted post has any meaning outside of the context of the thread.
Probably the vast majority of forum members do realize that self-moderated threads on a controversial topic tend to be mere propaganda pieces, yet I suppose that there are some members who don't realize the difference between a self-moderated thread and one that is not.
As evidenced below: thanks for paying me in the last two days, Bob... that is why we are such buddy, buddies......
#NoHomo.I don't want to sound like a queer or nuthin, but, I took you off my ignore list just now... finally.
Please PLEASE
PLEASE try to work on editing your missives for less verbosity.
Are you asking gravity to not tug so much?
Exactly.
MERITED for, well, positive and shit. Shine on, guys!
I like reading the loooong versions, at least if the topic is interesting. If not I move on. Can't fight gravity and all. It's all good. This is fine.
44.
Post 53276039 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.09h):
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NAILED that one (just above, #511300 last page) exactly right, LUCKMCFLY. My greater family has had quite a string of cancer deaths in recent years.
* * *
Banks and Equifax are some real enemies of unwary people. HODLing assets outside the financial system only makes sense.
r0ach deserves some credit for that as well as all of you, physical Au is also outside the financial system. Precious metals and BTC are natural and complementary allies. And their prices are somewhat independent of each other, hence complementary. YES, I did see the chart showing the (weak, IMO) correlation of prices of BTC vs. Gold. "The academics" use a rule of thumb that a correlation of 0.30 is "significant". That above chart (I'll go back and hunt it down and EDIT this post in a bit) shows BTC & Au always less than 0.30, and showed NEGATIVE correlation for some time. Seems to me, amateur statistics guy, pretty independent of each other.
EDIT: Should have known is what LUCKMCFLY who posted that interesting chart showing correlation of BTC and Au (#511281, last page). Note that if you look at the "area under the curve" (a la integral calculus), you will see that adding up all those low correlations comes to near zero, close enough for the correlation to be be, effectively, near ZERO at least IMO.
BTC and gold act independently of each other, at least for now. If Hong Kong gets slaughtered by the Commie Reds, that of course could change quickly...
45.
Post 53574001 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
Seeing some news I have now come across this: "Expert says gold and bitcoin prices are not correlated", which emphasize the Non-Correlation of gold and Bitcoin, in my previous post they give some arguments to believe that yes, it is really curious to run into With two types of thoughts. In this article:
Expert says gold and bitcoin prices are not correlated“On standard economic and financial measures, gold and bitcoin are at opposite ends of the spectrum — gold is historically a safe haven while bitcoin is a risky asset. Gold is a physical asset that will be valued for decades to come (and been a reserve of value for centuries) while bitcoin is a string of numbers on the computer that may change overnight, ”Cartwright told Decrypt.
What is certain is that when there were those war drums Bitcoin behaved as a refuge of value, even if temporarily but it did.
If I were to guess, I would think that BTC and Au have a small but real positive correlation. Someone with more skills and data than I have should do a good study on that. Certainly in times of real geopolitical trouble one would expect both to go up in price as both are refuges from the financial system.
Until that time, I will HODL both BTC and gold.
46.
Post 53605516 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
CME did more BTC Options volume on Day 1 than Bakkt did today.
RIP Bakkt
Hardly knew you
Tiny bit early to judge, nonetheless gutting for
Rekkt Bakkt
Bakkt trades options eventually settling into real Bitcoins.
CME trades options eventually settling into
shitcoin US Dollars.
Difference is not trivial.
Usual self-promoting ad:
Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!Yeah, but in practice, is it really true? Are we making a distinction without a difference?
Does BAKKT really have the bitcoins that they proclaim to have?
Surely, you cannot take possession of BAKKT bitcoins, so how do we know that they are NOT full of shit in terms of actually backing their purportedly traded (betted upon) bitcoins with real bitcoins? We might find out if Bitcoin does an unexpected 10x in the next 6 months. Would be nice to test out some of these systems, especially if they don't have bitcoins and the proclaim to have them.
good point. although didnt we learn the other day that bakkt isn't 100% settled in btc after all
O.k... sure a bit more succinct... I concede.
This is a good point to get settled once and for all: Whether or not one can get their "physical BTC" from BAKKT, whether there is an option (or not), etc.
Making a paper (electronic?) profit from a good trade at BAKKT (assuming no BTC settlement) still would leave
me unsatisfied if I wanted BTC!
Is there a Rule Book easily available for understanding (in non-legalize) what is possible with BAKKT?
Has anyone here actually traded with BAKKT?
Inquiring minds would like to know...
47.
Post 53605585 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
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ivomm and WO friends
I wouldn't touch it myself either, but I have never seen a coin with a market cap over $1,000,000,000 go up 96% in one day. I smell a trap.
BTC hodler only.
48.
Post 53605744 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
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It's a good thing I didn't vote in the latest poll. I would not have foreseen this pump, para nada.
I am wrong some 80% of the time trying to make short-term trades (inc. buying BTC, price goes down immediately after I buy). That same pattern has always been with me: casinos, put options on the S&P 500, buying gold, etc., bang!, they go down as soon as I buy.
Now I stay away from short-term & rigged games (inc. alt-coins).
BTC and Au: HODL! Nice diversification, works for me.
49.
Post 53614696 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
Stock-to-flow model.
"Stock to flow" does not apply to Ponzi scams. I don't know if any of you noobs understand economics at all - and I wasn't there to personally witness the event or personally audit all the bookkeeping - but the great depression involved a liquidity deficit. Some claim it was an engineered depression by the banks, others claim it's not; who knows, that doesn't matter for this discussion. What matters is that if Bitcoin was actually the unit of account of anything (I.E. the world reserve currency and everything is priced in Bitcoin), the halving itself is a liquidity implosion similar to the great depression.
With Bitcoin not being the unit of account of anything it doesn't really matter because it just functions as a meaningless pump and dump scam, but if you actually tried to price everything in the world in Bitcoin it would be laughable. What type of "monetary system" do you know of where every vendor on the planet needs to massively adjust all their prices every four years? None exists because anything with such stupid mechanics always dies because anything operating with such dynamics is a Ponzi scam. The purpose of a monetary unit is to provide price stability, not be unstable by default.
In terms of having an actual functioning economic system, the 'halving' is a monetary crisis, not some sort of benefit. The only people who view it as beneficial are pump and dump scammers hoping it allows them to make money off algorithmically designed, large volatility. If Bitcoin was designed to actually be useful as a unit of account for something instead of a Ponzi scam, the block reward would be static eternally. The government creators of Bitcoin who want it to function as a cashless society slavery system where everything you do is monitored in real-time knew it would be impossible to try and get anyone to use Bitcoin with an infinite, static block reward over metals, so they designed it as a get rich quick scheme, Ponzi scam to later be adjusted or replaced when it eventually fails due to having no use case beyond a pump and dump scam.
Thank you very much for your realr0ach point of view,
I respect his way of thinking about these scenarios, historically gold is always the best way out of the crisis, Bitcoin is undoubted protagonist today, in my case, I give much importance to both the investment and the refuge of the value that It represents, although many economists do not recommend it because it is volatile.
For those of us who can handle the volatility of BTC (and possible perceived risks of an investment/speculation we do not fully understand), BTC is a great piece of diversification.
I hodl enough BTC so that if it moons in price, I benefit nicely. But, I am not the kind of guy who likes putting too many single investment eggs into my basket. Especially now that I am aging (older than most of you).
Do recall that anyone hodling ANY BTC already is way ahead of the game, as so few (6% of Americans?, though that seems way high to me) hodl any BTC. Thus, should it moon (an excellent probability, IMO, of it doing so), only we 6% will be winners. I do not need to be a #YugeWinner to be content with entering this arena (nor a #YugeLoser should BTC collapse). My hodlings are enough to bring me a Big Smile should we exceed BTC's ATH. Bring it.
As our European friend "el_duderino" has long written: "This is fine" and "This is HODL".
* * *
I still do not understand the antipathy of BTC hodlers to gold. (Of course, you can see the opposite too, look zerohedge FUD-ers)
Gold and BTC are, in essence, both assets outside the $IMFS (our financial system). But they are somewhat different in their price movements as well as their various other properties. They are different "vectors" if you will. That's why I like them both!
Precious metals and BTC are natural and complementary allies.Edited for clarity
50.
Post 53614929 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
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bitserve
I should have written "some" BTC hodlers. Thank you for pointing out that many BTC-ers do not hate gold.
realr0ach writes what he writes because (I imagine) his experiences with BTC have not been good, and he no longer wants to speculate/invest in it. Or he has changed his view due to circumstances. Still he does like to poke BTC-ers in the eye with a stick (LOL).
Whatever, it's all good. Need all types.
51.
Post 53658635 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):
Breaking News:U.S. Congress proposes that Crypto transactions below $200 shall be free from taxes!.139 G.Gain from disposition of virtual currency
(a)In general
Gross income of an individual shall not include gain, by reason of changes in exchange rates, from the disposition of virtual currency in a personal transaction (as such term is defined in section 988(e)). The preceding sentence shall not apply if the gain which would otherwise be recognized on the transaction exceeds $200.
(b)Virtual currency
For purposes of this section, the term virtual currency means a digital representation of value that is used as a medium of exchange and is not otherwise currency under section 988.
pdf That would be great if that goes through. I have made a few small purchases that have been annoying to keep track of (esp. cost basis for coins, I use FIFO accounting). The larger purchases (gold) I kept careful track of because they were larger transactions.
Tiny purchases with BTC should be tax-free, the man-hours of doing the accounting are maddening.
52.
Post 53753051 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.14h):
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This may be as good a time as any to track Hunan Coronavirus stats and some financial investment prices. In time maybe there would be correlations we could look at as the virus spreads. Latest numbers I have at hand:
Hunan Corona Virus cases: 12,204 (posted by VB1001 above)
Hunan Corona Virus deaths: 259 " " "
Bistamp BTC price: $9380
Kitco gold price: $1589
DJIA (Dow): 28,256
(edited)
53.
Post 53753121 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.14h):
I am ready.
I literally can't wait.
I feel like a pupa inside her cocoon ready spring out and spread wings.
Merited for excellent info and comments.
I would avoid diamonds as a longer-term HODL, as the technology for manufacturing them is getting better (ie, it is getting easier for synthetic diamonds to pass for natural ones), also there is a tight cartel that controls prices, rumors abound that there are massive quantities of diamonds currently withheld from the marketplace.
I like the fact that platinum has a *low* S:F. That's an indicator of relative scarcity of stock vs. use. Hey, it's a little bit more diversification. Though you can't go wrong with (some, a little) silver if you don't like Pt for whatever reason. Silver is BULKY though.
54.
Post 53845864 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.15h):
I want to touch on supply chain disruption. That lunar new year holiday is a real thing. It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time). It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.
However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.
something something
profit?
We (our import company in Peru) still have not heard anything back from our Chinese ball bearing suppliers. China now supplies us with some 25% ($-value) of our items. We started asking them a few days ago, and none of the three have answered.
We will likely have to go with more Korean product, but many of our customers there in Peru are now addicted to low prices.
Yet we have customers who buy *special pieces* (items that ONLY Chinese plants make), they may be screwed when inventories in Peru run out. New metal bearings are not the kind of product that is easy to just "start making" either, as they are precision parts made of special steel.
If this whole Covid-19 gets worse, there are many supply chains that will be disrupted, with high (but hard to quantify) costs.
55.
Post 54017694 (copy this link) (by OROBTC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
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OROBTC today reports:
-- pandemonium at DC and Miami grocery stores, consider stocking up now
-- universities all over the place shutting down, moving classes to the 'Net if they can
-- two nephews (US citizens) stuck in Europe, one with MexBeerVirus
-- Peru's MexBeerVirus first death
-- observing BTC @ $4993
Tomorrow I will drop by a LCS to see if there are precious metals left.
