All posts made by D. Lerk in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 49233776 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
This is something I ponder on and off. That 1-3% figure is pretty far out. I'll bet there are people who've been reading this thread for longer than most of us have been here who've never even registered, let alone written anything.
I'm sure it's easy to be intimidated by the astonishing power and paint-stripping insight of titanic intellects such as the one I happen to possess. I still think they should make themselves known. We need a lurker amnesty.
Come on out. We won't hurt you.
Finally, someone polite enough to invite the guy in the corner.
I've been lurking since Spring 2012. AMA.
2.
Post 49233952 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Many thanks for the welcome merit, gentlemand.
I always like your Bet Lynch / Brenda meld. Cheers!
3.
Post 49234137 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Why Wekkel, thank you as well!
You I've admired for keeping sight of the little bit of serious the thread needs to stay at all relevant.
- and Arriemoller, a favourite non-Anglophone.
Quite a turn out. You'll have us lurkers looking up from our shoes in no time.
4.
Post 49234248 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Finally, someone polite enough to invite the guy in the corner.
I've been lurking since Spring 2012. AMA.
How does it feel to be vastly richer than the mongs in here who've spouted millions of words and achieved very little because of it?
.
I wonder what they do here, tbh. What's their upside to the pages of tosh.
It really isn't complicated: everyone here is "lucky" enough to be in on a once in a lifetime chance to front-run the old money.
They get it, but by design can only participate financially by persuading us to hand over our coins. Just don't hand them over till you have secured generational wealth.
5.
Post 49234327 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Finally, someone polite enough to invite the guy in the corner.
I've been lurking since Spring 2012. AMA.
1. When did you first find out about Bitcoin and how?
Hairy, Hi. Pleasure to meet you.
Spring 2012. I was lucky enough to "get it" immediately. How? A younger relation mentioned it to me, knowing I had had a long-standing interest in PMs and tech. I sent money to Japan within a couple of weeks.
(I'm being limited in post frequency, sorry)
6.
Post 49234443 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Welcome to the visible side of the forum!
- How long have you been reading the WO? Do you think we are all crazy or just a few of us?
- Are you bullish or bearish?
- Hodler since 2012?
I'll start with those three
Hi Bitserve - thank you, but you've been here a long time as well.
- I think there's actually very little craziness, but an awful lot of would-be manipulation. Seems clear to me, for example, that our pet Nazi is trying to disrupt and scare off contributions much like the grandad porn of NLC did.
- long term very bullish, short term doesn't matter.
- yes
7.
Post 49234544 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Pfft. I've been around longer.
(just)
Don't pout in front of the guest.
Hi P_Shep. Indeed you (and many others) have. The "AMA" thing was light hearted, really to invite WO reflections, not to claim any great coin insights or seniority. I'm just an unimportant lurker and will no doubt slide away again soon.
...and thank you cAPSLOCK, for the welcome merits. I genuinely lolled when I first saw your handle.
8.
Post 49234773 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
[quote author=El duderino_ link=topic=178336.msg49234435#msg49234435 date=1547500220
BOY's I have given 50% of my Sm's , maybe someone can give him "little merit" to participate in the guess the price thread
if he's interested
[/quote]
Hi Mic, and thanks. End of March is a little too short term for me, but if I had to guess, I'd say banging its head on brutally strong 6000 resistance. Ditto for most of the 2nd quarter as well.
9.
Post 49235642 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Welcome mate. How has your ride been since then?
Great fun. Got some stories saved for opsec-friendlier places...
Even then though, people were saying it was too late, all the gains had happened. But its not just about when you get in, but for how long you stay in. Orders of magnitude increases, like compound interest, soon get very real. Lots of people had thousands, tens of thousands of coins but let them slip away. Look at the bearwhale: 30,000 coins dumped at $300. Unimaginable amounts. Except that just 300 coins would have had 2/3rds equivalent $$$ at our ATH a couple of short years later. Two orders are certainly possible again. No one knows. This is just the most asymmetric bet of our times.
Thanks also for the generous welcome, vapourminer, kurious, and LFC.
edit: and d-eddie, hi
10.
Post 49235782 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Has a modern E-type feel to my eye, especially with the in-line 6
11.
Post 49242309 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Welcome to participation, D. Lerk.
Regarding your AMA statement, what has been your BTC investment strategy since 2012? Have you bought/sold any? Did you get distracted by any other cryptos? Have you changed your strategies over the years? or have you been scared out of bitcoin based on various FUD over the years?
Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with
no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside.
Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.
Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle.
Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.
edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were.
edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy
12.
Post 49249238 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.
Aww, now my feewings are hurt. Oh well, I gotta do me.
Welcome the the thread, D. Lurk.
Hi, thank you.
But NB, it's Lerk with an 'e'. The 'u's split from our, talkative, side of the family. We don't hear from them anymore. They never visit, they never write.
13.
Post 49249360 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.
yeah once the silk road stack was auctioned by the government that was a big turning point. the government destroys seized evidence it considers illegal ie look at all the drugs destroyed by burning etc. by auctioning it i knew it was legit then.
dunno about you but back in the day when btc was a few bucks i threw it around like popcorn. just testing various wallets on different computers and to and from exchanges just to see how it worked. ive lost some coins by mistakes, some by forgetting about them. it was never a large percentage of course, but the amount ive lost would be worth a good amount today. but that was very early on when it was unknown if it would even survive.
if i had known what it would eventually be valued at i would of course been more careful, as i am now. back then in my wildest dreams i would never even of though it would hit 20k a coin. and i would of just laughed at anyone that said that. back in 2011-2012? pffft. coins were just things to play with.
EDIT: i mined my coins starting in 2011, didnt buy them. might be a reason i didnt value them much as i didnt pay money for them. just a byproduct of my gpus.
I doubted that it would survive. Money on the public internet?? Just asking for trouble. Surely the design couldn't have mitigated all attack vectors? I fully expected my Qt wallet to be emptied during the first few weeks.
I had a go mining, just to try and understand the process, but soon realised it was far more efficient for me just to buy them. We each have our part to play in this most elegant of systems.
14.
Post 49249450 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
'ello, son. ty for the merit
'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated
If you're thanking me for last night, the pleasure was all mine.
We never forget the first time.
If I've misunderstood, then I'm afraid you've misunderstood.
15.
Post 49287392 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
I think it is a new asset in that as it is being established as a SoV at the same time as it's capabilities of a MoE are being bootstrapped. I think most money has had to really become the first one before it could be the second, and I think Bitcoin is going to overlap more than that.
I see it slightly differently: that it's true calling, as it were, is as a personal, portable, permanent SoV. A kind of undying meta-wallet that we can trivially take across borders and generations. We can choose to grow our stash all our lives, give it to the state in taxes, pass it on, spend it, whatever - it is completely within our - the keyholder's - control. Not the border guards. Unbeholden to or trusting any third party, bank or societal construct. It becomes purely that part of us needed to exchange, from time to time, strategic value with others. In that sense, no other currency is needed.
But the means of exchange on an everyday basis, the buying a coffee, is a red herring. It has some importance, yes, but only to demonstrate atht the transfer of value can indeed be performed, trivially, securely and irreversibly. It's a kind of proof of concept to the doubters.
Undeniably, for banal shopping a credit card works better. Sometimes you don't trust the person you're buying from. In that case you're buying a judge for that credit card 3% who will usually side with you. I don't have a problem with that. In fact it seems perverse that fighting that service is the ditch Roger and Craig are happy to die in. Let 'em.
16.
Post 49288589 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
I think it is a new asset in that as it is being established as a SoV at the same time as it's capabilities of a MoE are being bootstrapped. I think most money has had to really become the first one before it could be the second, and I think Bitcoin is going to overlap more than that.
I see it slightly differently: that it's true calling, as it were, is as a personal, portable, permanent SoV. A kind of undying meta-wallet that we can trivially take across borders and generations. We can choose to grow our stash all our lives, give it to the state in taxes, pass it on, spend it, whatever - it is completely within our - the keyholder's - control. Not the border guards. Unbeholden to or trusting any third party, bank or societal construct. It becomes purely that part of us needed to exchange, from time to time, strategic value with others. In that sense, no other currency is needed.
But the means of exchange on an everyday basis, the buying a coffee, is a red herring. It has some importance, yes, but only to demonstrate atht the transfer of value can indeed be performed, trivially, securely and irreversibly. It's a kind of proof of concept to the doubters.
Undeniably, for banal shopping a credit card works better. Sometimes you don't trust the person you're buying from. In that case you're buying a judge for that credit card 3% who will usually side with you. I don't have a problem with that. In fact it seems perverse that fighting that service is the ditch Roger and Craig are happy to die in. Let 'em.
Very possible scenario... Yet when the SoV aspect is mature I do not see why a robust MoE scenario would not be on tap. My above post I am saying I think the two will overlap, but even if they don't once people are really using it for saving I cannot imagine they would not begin to get interested in spending as well... and there is NO reason credit cards cannot still be the tools we use to do it.
I agree Roger is a certain kind of ideologue who wants a world where there are no banks or middle men. I get that. And I know there are many people on this thread who want that as well... Hell, I like the idea too! But the thing is, there will always be banks, and credit cards, and middle men, because they will always offer things most common people are not going to want to take responsibility for. Custody, liquidity, credit...
You're right, of course. We're just talking degrees. I suppose Bitcoin is a kind of Rorschach - people see in it reflections of their own concerns and emphases.
17.
Post 50546691 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.41h):
Best of luck, Bob.
Like many others, I popped into a similar place on the journey round this block. Feels good to have left it behind. We can be happy in a bar with our friend(s) just drinking still water. It's no lesser beverage. It can taste so good and is the ultimate health drink.
...and Jah guide!
18.
Post 51189483 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
The price is about $3k higher than it should be at this part of the cycle. We are already higher than what the December 2019 peak should be. It’s all gravy.
The recovery from lows has been far faster this time, the only reasoning I think of why that happen is at the same time the similar kind of reversal to reasoning by the Federal reserve (last hard statement was December) in proposing a continual scheme of rising interest rates no matter what; but now seemingly being on a path to completely stop and probably lower rates if any weakness in the economy occurs.
Until the fiscal deficit and probably the trade deficit is closed and probably requiring a surplus, I see USD as weakening over years but the market doesn't immediately reflect that and its related to retention of dollar debt vs alternatives. When the ECB has such a weak policy itself and is also involved in QE, the EURO is unlikely to be much an alternative and the Euro bond market is taken up with ECB buying so far as I know. Japan again the market is saturated with new money via QE so again the currency is unlikely to be as strong as it should be vs the dollar. If there is currency weakness worldwide now and predicted ongoing, theres little to oppose BTC or any asset price especially if demand for that commodity is growing.
That big switch in sentiment on global reserve money might explain some of the reversal, I dont know if BTC price after that initial reaction then loses momentum and goes sideways after bouncing so high. I spotted this idea of a
parabolic rise but a giant rise without pulling back I think is not as positive longterm for stability, I would not guess this happens so soon.
Right this moment I see the price as bouncing between two moving average in an increasingly tight range, it seems to be it will breakout but so far price moving downwards has not settled far for long before returning to a similar price under 8000
https://i.imgur.com/N4GfwVt.pngGuys this last bear market had ZERO bounces of significance. Bulls were dead for a year. So this bounce is not more than expected. In fact, ratio wise it is LESS than the bounce to $500 at the beginning of the last bull cycle. Plus we are now a year from halving.
For all we know this could be mid 2013 again. Too many people looking in the wrong places.
I think there is a whiff of 2013 between-the-peaks.
Using vague feely words is legitimate because the market landscape and participants have changed so much so quickly that I'm not sure we can rely on chart superimposition and fractal comparison as much as we can on more mature markets. There was very little leverage 7 years ago, no futures, no tail-wagging derivatives, far fewer professionals and I doubt any prop desks.
Bitcoin can get beaten up, either by the gox matching engine taking 30 minutes to execute a market order and so driving participants to cash, or by futures traders stepping in or deep pocketed shorters determined to get in position for the next run, but it can shoot up with a vengeance that trad markets or newcomers won't believe.
The way these dips are being bought is impressive. There's still people convinced they can buy in much cheaper, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're starting to worry. For all its 20k glory the last run did feel like it ended a little early (what can I say? to me it did) like Apr 13, and windy has a point.
19.
Post 51440362 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.50h):
Colonoscopy completed. Medium sized polyp detected and removed. Biopsy report in 1 week. Expecting benign results.
Take care of your assholes, brothers.
My brother, my exit of body place is a well respected and always kept clean place, I do take care of that area
Talk about shit posting...
20.
Post 51440702 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.50h):
Colonoscopy completed. Medium sized polyp detected and removed. Biopsy report in 1 week. Expecting benign results.
Take care of your assholes, brothers.
My brother, my exit of body place is a well respected and always kept clean place, I do take care of that area
Talk about shit posting...
Merited for achievements in irony...
Thanks Totscha. Strive to be a cunning linguist.
21.
Post 51463407 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.51h):
Masterluc posted a 3-month head and shoulder chart without any comment but a laugh.
On that chart, we're at the top of the right shoulder.
Most head and shoulder charts are scam. Some get it right by pure coincidence (1mil predictions, 1 bound to be right). Ignore.
masterluc throws a lot of shit at the wall, some of it sticks but most of it doesn’t. His predictions are more hit than moss these days, I don’t know why he still gets the air time here.
For the sake of discussion, I guess. He gained his spotlight long time ago with one bold long term prediction that he got right. Since then, I think his utterances deserve a mention here. More so than, say, Vays's. I do agree he's been misfiring quite a lot lately, like 50/50 - which hints at randomness.
He had a stupendous 2013 (I think he was still "lucif" then): massively bullish against the wall of worry, calling the 4 figure figure top pretty much to the day, then declaring for a multi-year bear. All against the crowd and mocked, especially for the multi-year bear which we'd never had at that point.
Since then a bit meh. I figure his analysis must have been affected by the money he made, which would have gone a very long way in Ukraine.
22.
Post 53079260 (copy this link) (by D. Lerk) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
Overfinch used to be run by a guy called Crook. He was a charmless salesman who had me counting my fingers after shaking his hand, and these days they don't add anything except an expensive badge.
But... they used to do real engineering and could transform the old "classic" RR from something you only aimed up the motorway into a quite glorious beast that handled and steered like it really shouldn't have done.
Well suited to old Hendrix/Dylan appreciating V8 lovers.
