All posts made by jackbauercsgo in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 50314682 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
I want to believe this will get approved but it won’t. These authorities just can’t stand the thought of how bitcoin can/will disrupt the world’s financial system, it scares the shit out of them.
I don’t think we have enough mainstream adoption to gain an ETF approval atm.
It’ll happen one day but atm I see every bitcoin ETF attempt getting shot down.
Orrrrr, they simply don't understand it and see an asset that moons occasionally then draws down ~90% within 15 months. I mean, isn't the responsible decision to *not* allow ETF's when you see that sort of thing? They're in the business of protecting the normal folks, not help them rock the traditional banking system. Not saying they're protecting banks, I'm saying that doesn't matter. They're more worried about funneling grandma jospephine's retirement to someone like Craig Wright through a poorly run ETF.
2.
Post 50728017 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.42h):
I rarely post here as I'm more active in niche areas of the site, however Wyckoff theory is something I particularly enjoy. I wanted to point out a couple of reasons why I do *not* think we are undergoing this particular schematic. The first thing worth noting is that Wychoff schematics are very much about horizontal support and resistance points. These interactions are key to each phase, A-E. You can quickly see that many of the anticipated breaks to higher highs or lower lows OR the retests of key lines in phases A,B,C simply did not occur. Additionally, the "SOS" flag looking thing in phase E is meant to show the market is able to consolidate just above what had historically acted as a rejection line or key resistance line. You can see this example in the schematic where the upper horizontal resistance line is touched 3 or 4 times before it's broken, and the market sits on top consolidating (showing it is properly accumulated and ready to mark up). In our real life scenario, no such break/consolidation period has taken place, at least not just above a previous strong resistance line. Instead, it jumped an entire $1k before beginning its consolidation period.
Please note, I'm not saying BTC didn't undergo accumulation, I'm simply saying this schematic does not fit. Some of it sorta/kinda does if you turn your head just right, but the essance of what wyckoff is trying to show does not appear in our sub $5k range. That being said, there are all sorts of other bottoms/reversal patterns that are appropriate with what we've seen, such as the famous "bump and run" schematic.
Lastly, the 2015 bear market bottom was a *picture perfect* textbook wyckoff accumulation schematic #1. If you compare the schematic to the actual chart, you'll see they are basically identical. This time, for the 2018 bear market, you really have to try hard to make it mentally fit and that's just not how wyckoff works.
Anyway, cheers. Hope that helps some of you in your wyckoff studies.
3.
Post 51255841 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.48h):
It probably means that we should slow down a bit, otherwise 20k (or 35K at most) is pretty much a limit (for now) at MM around 4.0 (8.0 at historical max) .
Exactly. There is such a thing as blowing your wad too early. Slow and steady >>> Quick trip
4.
Post 51598423 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.53h):
Tales from the Crypt
Last couple years, instead of cash, my wife has been gifting BTC for friends and family kids’ birthdays. Small amounts labeled as “college fund”. Every once in a while, she pings the parents: how’s that college fund doing? Some of the returns are approaching 2-3x. Still, few if any of the parents are buying on their own.
Got an Ozzie mate I tried and tried again to convince investing in BTC well before the 2017 run up. He finally caught the fever near the ATH. Fearing he was too late for BTC, he started buying XRP and a host of other shitcoins. Had to have a serious sit down. Might have involved some bitch-slapping. He managed to DCA himself into BTC over the past couple years and calls me up this week: “I’m back in the black!! Wish I bought more at the start of the year!” I suspect we've got a hodler for life.
Know a Chinese gal recently married to a Yankee expat who caught shitcoin fever like only the Chinese can. Unbeknownst to her hubbie, she started dumping massive amounts of her yuan savings into the 2017 hype. When she was down 20% last year, my wife and I spent hours trying to convince her to cut her shitcoin losses. She had no exit plan and remained convinced they would all bounce back. She’s since lost enough she confided in my wife she has been contemplating suicide. Intervention time.
Know a recently retired couple in their 60s, an old boss actually, who came to town in Feb to visit their newlywed daughter. I’ve never spoken a word to them about Bitcoin. One morning they point blank ask, do I own any Bitcoin? Is now a good time to buy? Why yes, now is the perfect time to buy. They’d be sitting on 2-3x returns if they actually pulled the trigger back then. I’m thinking they didn’t though and probably mistakenly think they’ve already missed the boat. Time will tell.
It’s a fine line advocating at the same time impressing upon others the importance of dyor, dca, hodl, don’t overextend, think years not weeks/months. For every success story lurks a potential tragedy, and that’s an albatross no one wants hanging around their neck.
Fun to pat ourselves on the back but let's not kid ourselves - watching walls get cut like a knife all the way down to $3k's was not exciting or fun. Most bitcoiners likely had been dollar cost averaging for a year in around the $6-8k range thinking 6k was the floor and then *poof* it dropped to $3.5k. Immediately after that, there was no reason to suspect we had hit rock bottom. Honestly, I think it would've been insane to have been strongly suggesting that normies be putting their life savings in, even at $3.5k. Price could've realistically fallen more (not to $0, but to $2k? Sure!) & then they'd be calling you crying about little Jimmy's college savings being down 50%.
I'm just saying, it's easy to feel great when everything is 3x up from the bottom. We have been greatly rewarded for taking our great risks & I don't think we should encourage the uneducated normies to take the same risks we do. DCA is always the only way I encourage people to get in.
5.
Post 52019664 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
Fed cut rates 0.25 % today
Speculate away oh speculation board
6.
Post 52640055 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
While the TA doesn't look the greatest, I must caution traders to check themselves. Some of these heavily bearish predictions are extreme by themselves, but to take them serious in the face of the upcoming halving is ridiculous. A bear market during halving literally breaks S2F and 10 years of history. But by all means, sell/short the corn at $8k here and see how that ends up
7.
Post 52640091 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Hey guys, have you ever done some trading on both sides? That is, if you enter Long, do you protect your position in Short with some leverage? This Spanish-speaking Trader did it, the video is from 2018, but it seems to me that the adrenaline he feels is a lot! more when you do it with 100k!
Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7p5UTPNPIs&t=14sAs Jesse Livermore did, it is a way to always be in the market, no matter which direction you are going.
Do you think it is convenient to do it right now in the market? Since the price is expected to increase, but if it falls, protect your position.
Obviously, to do this you have to have a lot of experience and try to suppress emotions to the fullest.
It's common for larger positioned traders to "hedge" their bets with longs and shorts both open simultaneously with stops in place so they catch the dominant trend move. The problem is whales know this and tend to play games with significant low time frame horizontal support/resis lines. You'll see explosive moves up or down that end up retracing (like the well known "barts"). These moves end up hitting the stops of both longs/shorts before actually trending up or down. Options are to set stops much further away, but the potential loss is greater also. I'm not a huge fan of the system but then I'm no expert.
8.
Post 52640676 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Hey guys, have you ever done some trading on both sides? That is, if you enter Long, do you protect your position in Short with some leverage? This Spanish-speaking Trader did it, the video is from 2018, but it seems to me that the adrenaline he feels is a lot! more when you do it with 100k!
https://i.imgur.com/Xv1Vx5v.pngSource:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7p5UTPNPIs&t=14sAs Jesse Livermore did, it is a way to always be in the market, no matter which direction you are going.
Do you think it is convenient to do it right now in the market? Since the price is expected to increase, but if it falls, protect your position.
Obviously, to do this you have to have a lot of experience and try to suppress emotions to the fullest.
it do not make sense to me. if I buy I expect the price to increase and if I short with leverage I expect the price to decrease.
if I buy one BTC and the same time I short BTC with leverage then if the price will increase my short will get liquidated soon depending on my leverage. if the price decreases my short will get in profit but then it was useless to buy BTC because better buy after the short was closed in profit.
Indeed that strategy has no meaning.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short a bitcoin I am flat.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short 2 bitcoin I am short 1 bitcoin (so why getting long a bitcoin in the first place?)
If I buy a bitcoin and then I shott 10 bitcoin I am short 9 bitcoin.... (again..)
This reasoning could be very different if there were options available to trade. But this is not the case.
I dismiss that video as bullshit.
It's just a way to manage consolidation areas and then play the breakout. Most of these guys trade with leverage. So a break out can result in a 10X return for a little risk. Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is.
9.
Post 52640880 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is.
Believe me I know how it works and having long and short positions doesn't help you with this, as the only way at looking it is doing all the sums and think like you have only one position.
No, this is incorrect. You have to remember a lot of these traders only care about growing their $USD position for their company or shareholders or whatever. So if you hedge a range and lose 10% while gaining 50%, then you had a significant increase to your USD position. In their mind, better to be mostly right & a little wrong rather than completely right or wrong.
Also, there are options vessels with call/put premiums that can further mitigate the risk of a particular position. Not everyone just buys and hodl's.
Funny enough though, I'm one that has gone from "day trading" all this to large multi month swings / simply hodling (due to time constraints). So I only recommend these strategies for people who have a lot of time to manage the entries and exits.
10.
Post 52829975 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
Back to price analysis....
3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/
11.
Post 52830181 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
And what should we expect from this?
Parabolic breaks almost always lead to
1) Strong retracements back (~85% - 60% if I recall, don't have the stats in front of me atm)
2) Macro trend reversals (think of bitcoin run ups and what happens, like after btc hit $20k)
12.
Post 52830259 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
My personal expectation:
1) price retraces to ~$16k to $20k as we approach halving <-- this implies like 6 month for a ~2x from here
2) parabolic price explosion upward won't occur until *after* halving, where price is strongly impacted by both regular users & speculators.
3) For what it's worth, I think just about all alt/btc ratios will dump *until* we hit a new btc/usd ATH. At that point, as BTC climbs to brand new highs, we'll see our first decent alt season in a while. BTC will be the only long term coin worth holding, but alt seasons can help grow your stack.
13.
Post 52842927 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
And what should we expect from this?
Parabolic breaks almost always lead to
1) Strong retracements back (~85% - 60% if I recall, don't have the stats in front of me atm)
2) Macro trend reversals (think of bitcoin run ups and what happens, like after btc hit $20k)
Yeah, but we have already had our 85% correction down to $3,122. Remember December 2018?
We are getting another 60% to 85% correction from the $13,880? That makes hardly any sense.
Now if you were talking about a 60% to 85% correction from some kind of new ATH or something like that, then you might be starting to make some senses. Perhaps?
In other words, the impression that I am getting is that you are one of those loonies or shills who are spreading disingenuous pie in the sky thinking rather than attempting to grapple with on-the-ground BTC price dynamic realities.
Lol bless your little heart.... you were so quick to lash out, you didn't read the chart right. It's inverted. The parabola I'm showing is from ~13.8k to ~7.8k. I'm suggesting the downtrend is about to macro reverse or at least "pull back" ~60 to 80%.
Personally, I'm guessing it's a macro reversal. We need to start slow grinding up to the previous ATH over the next ~6 months or history won't repeat itself like the world is expecting.
14.
Post 52842956 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
Also feel compelled to add - so many people show charts of years like 2017 vs 2018 vs 2019, BUT what they should be focused on is halving. How to the 12 months prior to halving look? What about the 12 months following halving? The halving is the real marker, not the calendar dates like Jan 1 to Dec 31. We are right on track vs historical trends. Next stop likely $16k to 20k by halving and then a hype/log uptrend the year following.
15.
Post 52907761 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
Tricky! Retested the broken parabola and then reversed! Didn’t see that last move coming.
16.
Post 52908661 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
Hey again JJG. Sorry you aren't able to comprehend the charts. I thought they were pretty self-explanatory but maybe not
. I'll see if I can get some crayons to doodle something simple. I'll bring a couple extra for you to chew on too
17.
Post 52909144 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
upside down parabolas?
unless you're doing it ironically...
Parabolic trends appear during uptrends and downtrends. Most people think they are for uptrends only and completely miss when they occur during downtrends. This is why I inverted the chart, to help people see what was happening. We're all way more accustomed to seeing parabolic uptrends, so people tend to "get it" more when I invert.
18.
Post 52918475 (copy this link) (by jackbauercsgo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
< incoherent rambling >
If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry
