All posts made by Hen0xyd in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 5402633 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.21h):

I'm personnaly a bit trained into charting analyze and following bitcoin community for ~2years but as some of you are way more experienced into bitcoin world I would like to get your point on this :

To summarize my thoughts :
- We had plenty of cascading bad news (mainly related to mtgox),
- lots of relay on mainstream press showing bad sides of (current)-bitcoin-ecosystem,
- the malleability glitch is easy to be reported as "bug into bitcoin itseft" for non initiated people.

Even with this situation price fell "only" to 500$ and with big volumes. Except a main problem on bitcoin protocol itseft, I can't imagine worst than oldest/biggest marketplace falling - mtgox, used to be the leader and still was for medias).

From looking at recent events and charts I would presume that real floor is 500, would you ?



2. Post 5448608 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):

Now, lets see how this ask wall reacts Shocked



3. Post 5478571 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):

Quote from: MANofthePEOPLE on March 03, 2014, 09:06:22 AM
Haha moving his wall every time it goes up a dollar. Interesting to see which wall that falls first at 599

Yeah funny to see how people can "play" with almost 2M$, but i doubt he will push to 599.



4. Post 5479967 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):

Quote from: mmitech on March 03, 2014, 10:53:47 AM
to be honest, I bought back, I lost few % on fees and price difference from my selling point at $570, sent coins to my wallet and I will have a break from trading for few weeks Wink

I feel you bro. I just bought when I saw this push to 600. It feels like I do need to stay away some weeks/months, HODLing on wallets (I'm bullish for 2014 end). Maybe if some recovery from mtgox i'll be back to some trading.



5. Post 5542414 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 06, 2014, 02:58:25 AM
Interesting huh?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

Yeah, it is. It's fun to see the charts for bitcoin searches and news are really close to the price chart !



6. Post 5557273 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):

I was wondering why people were saying "Dumps, quick quick, Satoshi got unmasked" (explain me why would knowing the initial creator of a protocol would change anything about this protocol and its weaks and strengths?) aaaaand price charts didnt really moved.

Or maybe the "dump incoming" guys were talking about those idiot press doing misleading headlines and it would lead people to panic sell ?

I consider this market almost no-reaction to be a good sign for bitcoin health, people are getting used to those bitcoin-is-bugged-sell-everything news.



7. Post 5565366 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

bitstamp and other markets testing to 645 now, any important news or only testing with more volume than we used to in last week ?



8. Post 5565753 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

Quote from: Solarstorm75 on March 07, 2014, 09:31:22 AM
bitstamp and other markets testing to 645 now, any important news or only testing with more volume than we used to in last week ?

Here it is:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-decides-bitcoin-is-not-a-currency-2014-03-07?link=MW_latest_news
Headline : "The Japanese government officially said Friday that it doesn’t consider bitcoin to be a currency and has no plans at present to regulate it as a financial product."

Thanks Solarstorm, it seems like its a news allowing to test the lower support indeed.



9. Post 5573918 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

Quote from: 600watt on March 07, 2014, 06:45:00 PM
550 in 1hour


666 in 1hour...


600 support testing with success in 1h



10. Post 5588800 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 08, 2014, 03:36:35 PM
Is it possible that the whale who drove the price up from 550 to 710 have slowly sold all that 10K coins back again?

It's not only possible, this already happened. Have you even heard of a volume chart? Or a commutative delta study?

But how can you be sure he really sold them? Maybe he is hodling?

But if he sold, he could possibly do this again, only waiting that the price dips a bit more.

This whale probably sold most/all of them using this points :
- easy scared people sold every btc they got before this 550 to 710 push,
- "interested in btc" people and longrun bulls (i'm in this category) are hodling (maybe about 50%fiat 50%btc ?)
- no one would like to move (most of us and traders dont like this)

So this 2million $ whale easilly pushed the price around 700 with 2 standard cases :
1- price goes up, he bought every btc in between 575-650 and price continue raising : his btc is direct profit
2- price goes up "artificially", price goes to 710, and he sold little by little according the price slowly falling, if no flash-crash he's still in profits

We saw the price going from 700 to 620 atm, so yeah whale might be all fiat again.





11. Post 5589677 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

Quote from: Peter R on March 08, 2014, 04:41:05 PM
whats the reason for this down-syndrome ?

I don't know but I think it is uncertainty regarding the movement of old coins that could be tied to MtGox.  Here is the latest discussion:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zvx7i/coinsight_now_shows_another_160000_btc_transaction/

There is a "special page" on coinsight regarding Mtgox BTC transactions with some note : "Mt.Gox reports at least the following types of transactions through this API: withdrawals, dust sweeping, big output splitting. Some transactions have been spotted on this API recently with multiple successful block confirmations, which could just be a result of Mt.Gox wallet software not seeing the confirmations or could be new undocumented API behavior." :

http://coinsight.org/mtgox/largest



12. Post 5603737 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

Quote from: koryu on March 09, 2014, 12:58:17 PM
little rally just started.

stil hoping for 666$ again Smiley

what you think will happen on monday? gox will prolly announce anything after they have prepared a hot wallet. price up or down on monday?

Indeed, sudden volume around x4, BTC and LTC griding to 650$ March classic range. Did I miss some news this night ? Cause I was only expecting a rally on monday Cheesy



13. Post 5605900 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):

Quote from: koryu on March 09, 2014, 02:18:08 PM
google trend for bitcoin is going up as expected: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%201-m&cmpt=date

Smiley


Yes, more people are knowing bitcoin now, so more investisors. Still we should note the rising search terms are the following (last 30days) :

bitcoin dead     +350%
bitcoin ceo     +250%
mt gox     +250%
mt gox bitcoin     +250%
mtgox bitcoin     +130%
bitcoin crash     +120%



14. Post 5763067 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):

Now we'll see if 600 is solid enough to be launchpad for next 3 months or not...



15. Post 5783822 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):

600 support wall increased from 900 to 1500BTC, finally building up ?



16. Post 5880526 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):

Quote from: KFR on March 24, 2014, 07:31:12 PM
I guess several people going to join Kraken now.
It was about time.
Quite so.  Great service IMHO.
I'm also enjoying dealing with Kraken. Btw they did prove the fullreserve : http://www.coindesk.com/krakens-audit-proves-holds-100-bitcoins-reserve/

600$ wall seems less impressive at the moment (approx. 1700BTC).



17. Post 5913970 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):

So we are approching the triangle/flag end, is this the up breakout ? *Open eyes*

Here is an Chart I did 2 days ago with updated candles : (check original here : https://www.tradingview.com/v/LWuJblFx/)

I'm wondering if the ask wall @600 on Stamp are real or not.



18. Post 5916039 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):

Quote from: zby on March 26, 2014, 05:12:52 PM
So we are approching the triangle/flag end, is this the up breakout ? *Open eyes*

Here is an Chart I did 2 days ago with updated candles : ... (check original here : https://www.tradingview.com/v/LWuJblFx/)

I'm wondering if the ask wall @600 on Stamp are real or not.

I am watching the same line here. I think the walls are real and still they will be eaten.

There is another long trend line around 610 - but if 600 goes then it will go past that other one too I think.

Glad to see we got same lines. I'm wondering one thing :
- what would mean a price stagnation around 580 (we would be going out of this triangle resistance, not hitting the 530 support) ?

Cause I see Huobi fighting but Stamp not in the mood ; but going out of this downtrend channel / triangle without a large price action (either way) would feel strange, right ?



19. Post 5927776 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 27, 2014, 04:25:51 AM
It seems that every day you reveal ever more disregard for reality and honesty in pursuit of your hostile agenda.  I don't know how you can respect yourself.
No need to take it out on me.  Price will recover today, you'll see. 3628 CNY on Huobi, 593 USD on Bitstamp, by 19:30 UTC.

593$ on Stamp tonight would be a trend reversal (out of this month downtrend and triangle) and as such I would expect pre-moon stop around 800 before April end. Some indecision about the once-again-Chinaban is shuffling cards, again.



20. Post 5976452 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):

Pretty sticky to 500 with a classic weekend drop (and retesting 470 as I'm writing).

Some movement next week would end new triangles and make everyone reacts like snowball and it would need relativly few bitcoins to move the price 50$ either way.

So current deal is we are going to see :
500 -> 400 going back to "MtGox is dead, Bitcoin is dead" bottom, serios
or
500 -> 800 going back to intermediate uptrend and previous bubbles patterns

For long-term bulls like me I think "HOLD and BUY more when price drops" is a decent and rational Leitmotif.



21. Post 5987364 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):

Buys finally eating the thin ask side !



22. Post 6014808 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):

Did I just saw a 1million $ buy order on stamp bitfinex around 480 ?



23. Post 6025717 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 10:53:22 PM
The best FUD always comes at the bottom

http://qz.com/193931/bitcoin-looks-like-the-worst-investment-in-the-world-this-year/

Indeed, I loled hard. That "redactor" is really epic ; can't even plead incompetence, he's really doing it on purpose... or maybe :
- he just took a random range : 3 months (yeah 3 is good),
- from hmm let's say since the ATH and oh surprise after an ATH we got a correction. Ok so it's "a crash", -38% value OMG worst investissement ever ! (So why not the title, really shinny)
- let's not check the 4 years before with around +10000%/year instead of -38%.

I guess some of the words in his Twitter description needs to be switched : "I write about finance, markets and economics for Quartz. Decent guitarist. Terrible banjo player." !



24. Post 6035248 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):

Wow, I work like 3hours and stamp goes from 490 to 450 ? Oo
Did some "official" news about PBOC or something ? Or it's "only" current rumours dumping some more coins after the prices went to the 490s ?



25. Post 6035593 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):

Quote from: bangersdad on April 02, 2014, 03:08:29 PM
Wow, I work like 3hours and stamp goes from 490 to 450 ? Oo
Did some "official" news about PBOC or something ? Or it's "only" current rumours dumping some more coins after the prices went to the 490s ?

The chinese whale had pushed the price to 490 to squeeze all the shorts, now he has achieved this he is spilling blood from the buy high sell low group.

Thanks bangersdad. I thought 500 would not broke without more volume but I wasnt expecting a fall this quick ! It's true walls were pretty thin. Now it seems both ask and buy walls are being rebuilt.



26. Post 6043978 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 02, 2014, 11:14:58 PM
Can you guys stop feeling entitled to a rally every 9 months and accept for once that bitcoin is in a downtrend and stop calling everything FUD? It's getting old and doesn't help anything.
such FUD
I am HODLING.
confirmed!
confirmed!
hodler unit unite!, and confirm your willingness to HODL
I'm hodling. Expected a drop today, but not quite so big  Shocked
keep hodling!

do we have more hodlers?

 confirm your willingness to HODL!

Quote from: cctvtech on April 02, 2014, 11:39:09 PM
I'm on the Buy and Hodl train.

Count me in, i'm seating next to cctvtech, same wagon ^^



27. Post 6111476 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.34h):

Quote from: igorr on April 07, 2014, 03:03:42 PM
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/china-clamps-down-on-bitcoin/story-e6frg90f-1226871648275

Are you really going to post this link on each page of this thread... ?

Cause I think nothing's new is it and is all based on Caixin publication.



28. Post 6158369 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 10, 2014, 03:44:44 PM
Nice wall at 400. Someone making sure we keep going down.

Indeed, 1000 BTC sell wall @400 on stamp



29. Post 6163956 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):

Differences between all exchanges prices and volumes are huge !
Can someone explain to me how I could see 30$ gap stamp<->btc-e and a lot of volume while China's not doing anything ?



30. Post 6179405 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):

Quote from: hlynur on April 11, 2014, 11:49:10 PM
Problems solved.

Chinese exchanges are moving out of China.

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-prepare-to-move-operations-overseas/

Other than a Moses type exodus of biblical proportions with all their customers moving out of China too, not sure how this solves the problem of using a regulated fiat currency with these exchanges.

what i never get is if the regulation will be differently applied to the special economic zones in china (esp Hongkong & Shanghai as financial centre)?


Exchanges are moving out of China but Chinese people and their money is in China... But I guess most of the people/money invested in bitcoin on last rally were rich and as such able to get money out of the country or to travel.
Without masses (or wallstreets/US?) next rally to 1000+ is not this close (but fundamentals are really nice lately).



31. Post 6213773 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):

Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS



32. Post 6214130 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):

Quote from: surfer43 on April 14, 2014, 02:22:40 PM
Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
So if BTC goes below 200, it will surely go below 100?  Cheesy

Quick answer : IMO, yes.
Long answer : I can only imagine going below 200 if theres a massive panic. It would be under the 2011-2012 trendline (not mentioning the 2013 one). "China ban" + "Gox=Bitcoin=death" only sunk to sub-400.
That's why IMO going sub 200 would be happening only with really worst condition and fundamentals ; and as such sub100 as a spike seems equal probable to me.



33. Post 6215113 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on April 14, 2014, 03:24:52 PM
Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100   5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200   9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300   20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400   55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500   89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750   79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000   72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250   63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000   52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000   43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000   31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000   23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000   10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000   5.54

So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.

As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.



34. Post 6215594 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):

Quote from: FNG on April 14, 2014, 04:06:23 PM
CCMF   Grin

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby Cheesy



35. Post 6228233 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):

On Huobi 3100 to 3300 ask side is getting raped !

Edit : Partly Rebuilt.



36. Post 6238859 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):

7-day-high on Huoby - at night :O
@Jorge : kangaroo trading indicator seems nice, almost as nice as dinosaurs Smiley



37. Post 6266902 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):

Adam (are you still here Cheesy ?), if you don't got ideas for a new poll I suggest something like that :

"How many time bitcoin will be banned in China ?" answers may be 4, 5, 6, 7 and so on.
You could also formulate it as "How many times China's deadline will be pushed ?" since it's funny how "dead-line" is antinomic in this sentence Cheesy

Note : I may have lost the count so I'm not sure about the '4' answer !



38. Post 6267645 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):

Quote from: niothor on April 17, 2014, 03:08:11 PM
Adam (are you still here Cheesy ?), if you don't got ideas for a new poll I suggest something like that :

"How many time bitcoin will be banned in China ?" answers may be 4, 5, 6, 7 and so on.
You could also formulate it as "How many times China's deadline will be pushed ?" since it's funny how "dead-line" is antinomic in this sentence Cheesy

Note : I may have lost the count so I'm not sure about the '4' answer !

How about we do the poll with 40,50,60  give the people a chance to actually be right

You got a point, using ranges 1-10 ; 10-20 would be better idea... unfortunately.

Quote from: aminorex on April 17, 2014, 02:58:33 PM
it's funny how "dead-line" is antinomic in this sentence

did you mean antinomic, or antonymic?  if it was before the gulf of tonkin incident, it might be ante-namic.

Antinomic and antonymic are synonyms in my language so I'm not sure I got the nuance :/
Anyway I just wanted to say that floating deadline moving around each time we are getting close did lost its literal meaning and may be refered more as "sword of Damocles" that a dead line.




39. Post 6273618 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):

Quote from: BitAddict on April 17, 2014, 10:12:38 PM
Rinse and repeat  Grin



That's one good summary you did there sir !

Can we switch it off or do we need to wait until batteries are empty ?



40. Post 6278152 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):

"A wild 800btc buy wall appears @499 on bitstamp". Waiting for the "Wow, that's effective" ^^

Edit : nevermind, it disappeared, but I don't know if pulled off or eaten.



41. Post 6475011 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 30, 2014, 01:45:00 PM
Maybe its a bulltrap, but i dont recall the fat red "China news" candle being nullified so fast on the 2h chart.

and the china "news" didn't produce much of a dip.


After 10+ "bans" :

- any Chinese who wanted to go away from bitcoin could have already done this.
- any Chinese who wanted to keep dealing with bitcoin, store value (etc.) may do it other way or elsewhere
- it is harder to flow more fiat (cny) for most of chinese people - still I'm not sure it's because of average Joe (average Lee?  Cheesy) we got to 1200$ some months ago...

It makes me think of a proverb/story about a "boy who cried wolf", each alert for ban means less and less reaction.

Also, thanks for the Bloomberg link, that's good news !



42. Post 6495697 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):

Quote from: nanobrain on May 01, 2014, 05:23:56 PM
Like Adam said, perhaps we are seeing resistance becoming support, having broken through the downtrend a few days back.



Suggests we have some green shoots of recovery? Undecided

Bid/Sum ratio getting better too
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/10-days

Aren't descending triangles usually a bearish sign?

Yes.  But its three am and I can't sleep so I thought I'd try looking for some positives in life Smiley ...like a breakout

The breakout already occured, and we tested 3 times the old resistance as a new support (upper line of descending triangle) :
(Check the full chart and zoom out if you want here : https://www.tradingview.com/v/JVzIzw0h/  )






43. Post 6496080 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):

Quote from: mighty jol on May 01, 2014, 05:54:56 PM
nice chart, what software do you use?
i like the way it is bouncing of the previous resistance, we may see the upward move go back from there (just hoping it won't go back and retest support from the bottom of the triangle)

I'm using the TradingView website which I think is pretty amazing for user-friendly charting interface.
Press the Play arrow on right you'll get the updated prices =>  https://www.tradingview.com/v/JVzIzw0h/  

Edit : you can also zoom in/out etc, look at the bottom of the charts for buttons.



44. Post 6582983 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):

Quote from: aminorex on May 06, 2014, 06:44:06 PM
1) Once sellers are done? You do realize that at this moment bitcoin is still inflationary right?
2) Increased adoption? China has just stated that it does not want anything to do with bitcoin, as well as Russia, so global must mean the rest of the world, excluding the two largest countries on earth?

1) Supply in reserve is not supply to the market.
2) Whether the PBoC wants bitcoin or not, the Chinese people want bitcoin.  I frankly wasn't counting on the PBoC being a buyer for another 5 years or so.

I general I agree that the last bubble was largely China-driven.  This is normal.  There is always something that drives the bubble, and something that drives the decompression that follows.  Every time a bubble occurs, it is indicative of more fiat finding its way into BTC.  The 2011 superbubble -- correct me if I err -- was driven by the opening of Mt.Gox, a stable exchange (at the time).  That removed the barriers for a large tranche of fiat to flow into BTC.  It seems obvious that the next bubble will occur when a new mechanism, lowering the fear, cost and inconvenience barriers, allows a larger influx of fiat precisely at a time when the BTC bonanza meme gets resurrected.  The heartbeat schedule would put that event in the summer.  If it skips a beat, then it would more likely coincide with the opening of ETPs in New York and London.  In that case, it is likely to be another superbubble, because it would facilitate a much much larger money flow than previous channels have allowed.

Meanwhile, we will continue to grind down until all the coins have flowed from weak hands to strong hands.  I keep buying small amounts because I think it is premature to lever, but we are close enough to the bottom so that I see more risk of being caught unawares by a sudden CCMF than I do risk of missing a deep-cutting plunge which increases my buying power substantially.  I don't want to watch the paint dry in hopes of a sudden opportunity -- did that, found it unfruitful in low volatility conditions.  I'd rather just average in near the bottom and leave a modest order in the 350 neighborhood in case I'm lucky.


I second that. You phrased it better that I would have do as I'm pretty bored waiting for the probable end of China's situation on May 10th.



45. Post 6633616 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):

Quote from: TERA on May 09, 2014, 02:18:02 PM
we have a break to the up side.



I don't see it. Can you help me out?

Sure, here it is :



(Tera: you were talking about using adequate log/normal chart but you should have used lines on this chart not parabols, don't you think ?)

The red one is 6 months main resistance, on which we bounced on 3 times, red/pink one is a recent and we are trying to escape upside.

=> I'm only saying we are trying to break some resistance trendline and some more volume is needed atm.



46. Post 6634755 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):

Quote from: hyphymikey on May 09, 2014, 03:25:39 PM
For a bear to affect this market they have to have bitcoin to dump right? So how are they a bear if they had coins in the first place? I still haven't figured that out.


First, you can lend and short on some exchanges, bitfinex and huobi for instance. Secondly being a bull or a bear isnt materializing in 100%BTC or 100% fiat. Most of people are just adjusting their btc/fiat ratio.
This way if price falls more than you thought you can buy some more btc (and sell some more BTC if price is going higher than you expected).



47. Post 6805318 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):

Is the "This user is currently ignored" sentence some new meme, cause I see more and more people using it nowadays...

Does anyone have an IgnoreList chart to provide ? or more seriously a bitcointalk number of users chart ?

On-topic : we already broke linear resistance trendline, and are really close to the log. one.
I guess the 2 next weeks will be interesting. Time to send more fiat onto exchanges (whether breaking up or down).



48. Post 6838689 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):

Quote from: porcupine87 on May 20, 2014, 04:30:08 PM
Better graph of the breakout:



This line just shows how meaningless all the line drawing is Smiley

Maybe you should try with more points touching your "lines" to have some basic trenlines.

So you can then watch the log trendline being broken while you PRESS PLAY and enjoy Cheesy
Full interactive chart : https://www.tradingview.com/v/zmcYjA0i/




49. Post 6965263 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):

Is this quick and hard dump is caused by some news I'm not aware of ?



50. Post 7072508 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):

Bitstamp 650$ broke, ask wall partly pulled.



51. Post 7073550 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):

Quote from: ChrisML on June 01, 2014, 03:12:16 PM
We need a new poll. LOL

Indeed, I got this poll right, like most of us, cheer to you 133 other guys !
How about : "What ratio or % are you now (90%btc/10%fiat for instance) ? " or maybe the same than few weeks ago (sentiment : boredom, hope, etc.) ?



52. Post 8330204 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):

Last fiat used, now let's relax and watch the movie.



53. Post 8460488 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):

Quote from: dropt on August 20, 2014, 09:23:09 PM
This bounce is so fake and weak. Volume is too low. We are still far away from a true bottom (0$), so shorting is a way to go. I will buy back only when everyone in the world will be buying too and it will be confirmed that nobody will ever sell again.

I like this strategy.  Mind if I follow?
Would you please stop giving the Over-Powered tips to all the noobs down there ?! We need to catch the more fiat we can using short @maxleverage with this 0$ bottom bro !



54. Post 8943008 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):

Panic bought, not very proud of myself  Grin

Let's see if this was a good move or not.
Whatever, bitcoin itself and fundamentals are pretty strong - Paypal keeping the slow but good pace.



55. Post 9096230 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):

IMHO we reached the bottom here.

Nice volume, if we avoid the China rising and "Mtgox-dead" events this daily volume is the bigger since... Nov 2013 bubble launch. Also, nice rejection of sub-300.  
Not saying we'll see doubling in price each weeks but I see multiple data pointing this was the bottom we were waiting since months.



56. Post 9190288 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):

Back above the 78.6 fib (~385$) ; October High, I'm feeling confident 275 with volume was the bottom.
I'm now waiting to see the 4h 200MA crossed.



57. Post 9245659 (copy this link) (by Hen0xyd) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):

Ichimoku cloud : 1pt for you, again.