Thank you for your thoughtful and well-supported argument.

So how does your "pattern" account for the two ATH pumps in 2013? We don't necessarily have to wait for another halving before we get another ATH.

Why answer my question with a question? How does your "pattern" account for the two ATH pumps in 2013?

There was a thread in off topic for answering a question with a question. It went on for over four years.

And what exactly is wrong with hope? This is bitcoin you know, really hard to predict anything. Pessimism doesn't take you far, just makes you grumpy.

So you think people here don't use any logic? You really should go through the thread more, how many pages have you read? And if you think that people here make their predictions only based on "big names on media" then you are so very wrong. Glad you're having fun though, we all have our strange ways to do so.

What I described isn't "armageddon", it's just the balancing act the bankers attempt to pull off between a run on the banks (deflation) or the money turning valueless (hyperinflation).  One of the two events is guaranteed to occur, not "a 1% chance".  

If the central bankers do nothing, then you have deflation and a run on the banks because the interest due is always higher than the total money supply in a debt based system, so it requires infinite growth to not collapse into deflation.  Right now we're just at a point where they know global growth is impossible due to peak working age demographic and energy, so they tried to rig interest rates to zero to compensate.  When there is no cost to borrowing, this leads to enormous malinvestment, which turns it from a deflationary crash where you'd likely have one business at a time going down slowly, to probably the whole thing blowing up all at once.

As you can see, the attempt to implement bandaid fixes to extend the Ponzi only creates a more catastrophic final event to the point where refusing to willingly go back to metals as money might be an extinction level event for human civilization.  You will either wake up one morning and they'll say something like "gold is now worth $10k an ounce and silver is worth $600 an ounce and metals are the official currency", or you will have the equivalent of a zombie apocalypse and everything goes back to the stone age.

A little bit of math:

If you bought Ripple for $ 1000 in January, now you would have $ 79.

If you bought Bud Light for $ 1000 in January, drank all the beer and passed the bottles, now you would have $ 79.  

I’ve watched my bitcoin stash worth go from close to 1 million GBP to well, you can figure it out from that.
Of course it hurts.....badly.

I feel stupid for not selling at the ATH but we’ve all been through this before & we rocketed from $160 to $20,000.

It will happen again?

If it doesn’t RIP to me.

W Buffett bought AAPL at $1tril valuation
W Buffett bought AMZN at $1tril valuation

There must be method in his...never mind.
He will buy BTC at $50-60K (~1 tril) or maybe when BTC price exceeds BRK-A (currently at $327,765/share).


how bloody Orwellian this is, it's not even funny.

Both Terra and I agreed that Bitcoin would be useless if they just block fiat transfers to exchanges, so claiming Bitcoin is somehow invincible to the govt now is hilarious.  The fact the govt has NOT blocked these transfers tells you all you need to know, that they seem to support the digital shitcoin scam because they hope to segue it into a cashless society slavery system and hope to distract people away from metals.  

For something to function as money or a unit of account, it has to have some type of price stability.  Bitcoin is designed to have a financial crisis every four years (the halving) for the rest of your life and is impossible to have any type of stability.  It's literally designed from the ground up as a pump and dump scam.  This is why people that call it a Ponzi actually do have merit, because money is NOT supposed to be designed that way with retardedly laughable volatility on purpose.

I don't think I am strong enough to hodl till a million but thanks for the warning anyway.

I feel like my limit is somewhere at $100k can't even imagine btc going higher than $100k tbh. Maybe 5-10 years later but 10 years of lifetime isn't something i can ignore by hodling.

I'd rather cashout and enjoy my time.

He is putting the next ATH around the next halvening.  Does he even TA bro?

Pish posh

ATH implies that it is the highest point followed by a crash.  A dip is expected (mandatory?) after the halvening spike but not a crash.

I thought yesterday's dump was a major local top but bulls are showing some resilience. I guess this might just stay sideways for a couple days and keep pushing higher.

I'm still skeptical about these bubble projections though. I think the next year will look more like 2015-2016 than 2017. Too early....

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

They are doing a fairly crap job of hyperinflating at the moment

It's not worth "$8500 a piece" since price is set at the margin.  Example:  There was once a time when NXT was worth hundreds of millions in market cap but the only exchange it was really traded on was Poloniex and the buy side was an entire whopping 20 BTC.  Dump 20 BTC and it's worth $0 (I almost did it just to fuck with Come from Beyond).  

It's all a confidence game being propped up by people like Chinese scammers who control the mining monopoly and benefit from said price distortion and manipulation.  The real value of any digital shitcoin is zero because it's a fake commodity that nobody actually needs.

Okay, Mr. Digital shitcoiner.  You hoard all 21 million worthless digital shitcoins then artificially rig the price to $1 trillion each.  Now how do you get me to buy into your pyramid scheme or use them?  You can't.  You're completely powerless and the entire planet ignores you like you don't even exist.  

Your scam falls apart because it's a fake commodity - a fake commodity that can also be replicated infinitely to make things even worse.  Meanwhile, I hoard all the physical silver in the world playing the same game as you except my strategy actually works since it's a real commodity people actually need.  That's not "fud", that's reality.  A fake commodity grants you zero power and you stand around looking like an idiot, while a real commodity actually does grant you power.

I got tired of seeing pathological liars shilling for centralized, non-fungible, permissioned ledger, digital scamcoins whose only possible endgame evolution is a replica of the Chinese social credit score system.  Anyone that doesn't want the govt trying to force the Chinese social credit score system on them has a dog in that race.

You speak from a paradigm of Jew banks artificially rigging metals down with derivatives while allowing Bitcoin to rise (and probably even facilitating that rise) in order to try and distract the goyim slaves from metals.  You don't get to make a comparison between the two until the metals rigging implodes.  Until then, metals are an inverse bubble and digital shitcoins are an actual bubble.

I agree with your overall sentiment, and the point(s) that you are making, AlcoHolDL; however, I am going to quibble a bit with your assessment that "most of us already are, or will soon be millionaires."  To be or soon be a millionaire, most of us would need to have in the territory of 100 coins or assuming that a BTC price of $20k is imminent, then "most of us" would need to have 50 coins or more.  I have my doubts about that assessment, at least in terms of the "most" categorization.

Misleading post.  It depends WHERE all this money is going.  If it's simply the kike bankers printing money out of thin air and buying up all the real estate and everything else on the market, then it's just a stealth communist takeover and it's not even possible to collapse simply because they OWN EVERYTHING.  

There's a lot of evidence that's what's going on to an extent, Jew moneychangers attempting the same playbook as they did in Russia - nationalize all assets then civilization grinds to a halt, sell them off for pennies on the dollar to select tribal oligarchs.  It might be possible none of this ends until the Jew moneychangers are physically expelled/gotten rid of, otherwise you might be guaranteed to go the Russian oligarch thief route (hint:  95% of Russian oligarch criminals were Jews).

We can have the $0k party in my basement.

This is starting to make me a little nervous. I'm getting deja vu December 2017. Can't the market be a little flat for a spell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbk29JZdl5A

Bitcoin will trade in a range between $10,000 and $14,000...

until it doesn't

That's like saying a dollar is now the same as a dollar 100 years ago.

Imagine the entire currency system turned to cryptocurrency. There will be no fiat. To buy your daily grocery you are using crypto. You will never need to compare your bitcoins with any thin air created fiat system.

1 BTC = 1 BTC always.

I hope it works out for you. I tried retirement twice and it didn't take either time. You can only wash the car so many times per week. Painting the house more than twice a year is stupid. Honeydoo lists tend to get longer and more boring. Even extended cruises lose their appeal. Now, a dedicated video gamer might be able to manage it.

/OG

Speak for yourself. My bucket list is too long to manage already.

In case you were wondering if Bitcoin was a government created scam to try and distract people from real money (physical metals), Harry Dent (a known govt asset and MSNBC-style propagandist) just spelled it out in complete black and white:

https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/harvard-trained-economist-bitcoin-to-32000-dow-33000-in-early-2020-and-gold-to-250-per-ounce/

No, it's not even remotely possible for gold to go to $250.  The lowest possible it can go is around $1050 from AISC/production costs.  The fact he tells this blatant lie about metals claiming gold can go to $250 while being a known government shill that simultaneously promotes Bitcoin spells it out in black and white:  Bitcoin is a govt created scam to try and distract people from real money (physical metals) and trick them into a digital only, cashless society slavery system.

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is it "halving" or "halvening"?
enquiring minds need to know....

unless he got his quotes wrong...it happens.



I wouldn't be asking if I knew, Mr Member

dee moo???
I guess it's "the mood"...

People here are mostly "drunk" with their 10-100X gains and think that it would continue, essentially, forever (until btc is 1-10mil).
I wouldn't mind that at all, but I give this scenario maybe 10% probability.
Much more likely is the next peak at 35-300K (most likely around 150K), followed by a multiyear proper whooping.
What if such whooping will end up not the usual 80-85%, but 95% lower?
200k back to 10k? A proper teeth gnashing would ensue and most people would sell, most likely closer to the lows than highs.

I had this experience before (when Internet boom turned to bust). There were literally no bids for some stocks. Could it happen with bitcoin?
I don't know.
however, for now, you are right, let's enjoy dee moo.

That makes sense.... to sell all before afraid we DIP small before a big UP

WTF, where do those guys come from

So you not afraid if we go up and you left behind with no corn or have to buy at higher prices....

Dude when do you guys learn HODL is the way buy more when it dips start DCA'ing your stack man....

And more important be happy with your FIAT in BTC cause that where your wealth is stash't better anyway, be happy with less $ and more BTC

THINK HEALTHY, you're in the big boys space here!!!

You are a diptwat, rebal15, and you just want to make shit up.

If you read anything from me of substance, you should already realize that I have a system in which I sell small amounts of BTC as the price goes up and I use those proceeds to buy BTC if the price goes down.  So I could give two shits whether BTC price is volatile because I profit from such volatility. 

Of course, I prefer for the BTC price to go up, yet I doubt that I really need to worry about whether it goes up or not.  I am already extremely profitable, even if BTC's price does not go up.  Bitcoin is going to do what it is going to do, which seems to be to go up.. ultimately, even if it might have periods of down along the way, and surely volatility (even extremely so) is a near inevitability.

By the way, you rebal15, come off as a bit desperate in your current attacks and your ongoing hopium for down.


jo squared does not need to buy because others will buy BTC at that price and higher... inevitably there are likely to be more and more buyers, especially once BTC prices cross above $24k.... , and a few years from now, the buyers at $16k who held onto their BTC are going to feel gratefulness that they bought BTC at such bargain prices.

Tennis (men's final) was great too.

without opining on post-halving/halvening course, it would be interesting if 2019 is a mini-me of 2013.

13.8K would represent a first peak (342% up)
6.6K-9K and in any case less than 73% (50-73% most likely) decline would represent the equivalent of the 2013 summer doldrums.
The second leg up: from, say, $8.4K to 28.7K or from 6.6K to 22.57K or from 9K to 30.8K (the latter two map the outlier marks of the destination).
Explanation: I chose percentages of the upside in the second leg to be the same as the first leg (as they were similar between two 'legs' in 2013 as well).


Somewhat true, especially in football (soccer). Mediocre players are being sold for £50mil.
Players which are OK, but not really great-above £120 mil (Coutinho and Dembele).