All posts made by xalex in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3477585 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.
Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?
Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.
Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.
The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.
=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.
The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.
I actually believe that the
bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.
Some say i am an early adopter, perhaps i am. In my view everyone adopting it today still is.
Anyway, i rarely reply on the forums. But i had to tell you i am actually trading some precious BTC for Euro's at a certain point. A while ago i read the paper, traded some Euro's for BTC (had to drive to the other side of the country to do so), and stored it on a paper wallet on a good location (i can't even reach it alone). I wrote down the percentage of my BTC i would trade back to Euro's when it's value equaled the value of a nice house in my country. I don't want to trade these BTC, but i have to, else my investment will no longer be based on logic but on emotional trading in a wild market.
So, yes, gradually selling some BTC at a certain fixed minimal price as an "early adopter". Yet not nearly as much to make a huge dent in the overall BTC trust.
-xalex
2.
Post 6163150 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
Aww man, i've been waiting for these drops and forum responses since the last ATH.
This feels just like the last 3 bubbles.
Endless news about BTC related startups and the amazing amount of value invested in getting these cryptocurrency economy fundamentals running only helps to confirm the global demand for this new payment system.
People said i was mad telling them >$1,000 in 2013. It will be fun to see if BTC will hit the $10,000 before 2016
To all the new investors: 2012 was a very slow year. But you would be very pleased today if you bought in 2012 at anywhere between $5-$20. Compare that to $250-$1000 in 2014 to get an idea of the feeling. Just hold on and enjoy the ride.
So little BTC, so many potential global users.
3.
Post 6246422 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
I entered at 140, never bought back in 2011. wasn't really good with money back then and it wasn't easy to buy coins then.
Those gains were when we were around 650. I doubt I'd collect more than 200 times gains now even if I'd sold all alts I have at highest price and that's impossible with such bad liquidity.
Buying coins in 2011 was indeed hard.
In 2011 there was gox for defining the price, and a wire transfer to Japan would take months (no joke). Building your own GPU mining rig was actually considered the #1 easiest way to get BTC.
I ended up driving to the other side of the country (this was in 2012) to trade face to face with a community member who had the patience of sending euro's to Japan.
The growth in the economic foundations (not talking about $ here) we have seen with cryptocurrencies is just insane. How many new exchanges do we have today? How more professional are they? How many new bitcoin businesses? There is so much time and value invested in the usage of this distributed ledger i have a hard time believing this could be anywhere below the current BTC market cap.
A new economy is being built from the ground up because of new technology, and it's being built extremely quick.
4.
Post 6755259 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
5.
Post 6762338 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
According to my data, the number of new users learning about Bitcoin is still decreasing.
(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)
http://btc.pizzacat.net/threerabbitswithhatssittingonsantaslapdancingrockettothemoon/learnaboutbtc.pngToday's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.
6.
Post 6786225 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
This is the most interesting thing I've seen on the wall thread in at least a week: Lots of new bits of data. Please, please give us more color on what is being charted, otherwise the bits are wasted.
Lots more people were looking up information about bitcoin when it was peaking in price. That chart starts in January when the price was still over $800. As the price relaxed there was less interest (other than when significant, fast drops in price occurred)
The chart would be FAR more meaningful if it extended back to about april of last year, when the price was stable at $90-120, so you could see the change in interest from then through the price jump and to now. I am sure its a few times higher now than a year ago
Aminorex: There are a lot of websites and webpages explaining about Bitcoin. If the statistical data is not public (only a few are), i figure out on what type of machine the website is running. Depending on the type of machine, i use common techniques such as remote resource load monitoring trough webserver response times to create an index number based on the difference compared to average load at stable times.
It looks like the data is dominated by the wikipedia page statistics, yet it is weighted relatively low considering it is linked within many of the other resources i get the data from.
It takes some work to consistently get an evenly weighted index number for the graph due to sites disappearing and new ones being made. To be honest, it is quite a mess due to lack of interest on my part to keep up
but hey, i'm a hacker (the good kind), not a financial analyst
Klondike_bar: The script has been monitoring (and mirroring) this data for bitcoin, litecoin, peercoin and feathercoin since about june 2012. However, the data folder is over 1300Gb and the code to analyze it is slow, even after a lot of efficiency updates. I'ts not exactly high end hardware. I have it running right now and i was wondering the same thing as you, so the last couple of days i'm spending my time trying to speed up the process.
tl;drUsed some fairly unknown techniques to get usage data from websites combined with publicly available data.
Hacking around my code to speed up the 1TB+ of data filter to generate graph back to april 2013.
7.
Post 6813634 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
According to my data, the number of new users learning about Bitcoin is still decreasing.
(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)
..(huge image removed)..
Today's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.
This is the most interesting thing I've seen on the wall thread in at least a week: Lots of new bits of data. Please, please give us more color on what is being charted, otherwise the bits are wasted.
Lots more people were looking up information about bitcoin when it was peaking in price. That chart starts in January when the price was still over $800. As the price relaxed there was less interest (other than when significant, fast drops in price occurred)
The chart would be FAR more meaningful if it extended back to about april of last year, when the price was stable at $90-120, so you could see the change in interest from then through the price jump and to now. I am sure its a few times higher now than a year ago
Aminorex: There are a lot of websites and webpages explaining about Bitcoin. If the statistical data is not public (only a few are), i figure out on what type of machine the website is running. Depending on the type of machine, i use common techniques such as remote resource load monitoring trough webserver response times to create an index number based on the difference compared to average load at stable times.
It looks like the data is dominated by the wikipedia page statistics, yet it is weighted relatively low considering it is linked within many of the other resources i get the data from.
It takes some work to consistently get an evenly weighted index number for the graph due to sites disappearing and new ones being made. To be honest, it is quite a mess due to lack of interest on my part to keep up
but hey, i'm a hacker (the good kind), not a financial analyst
Klondike_bar: The script has been monitoring (and mirroring) this data for bitcoin, litecoin, peercoin and feathercoin since about june 2012. However, the data folder is over 1300Gb and the code to analyze it is slow, even after a lot of efficiency updates. I'ts not exactly high end hardware. I have it running right now and i was wondering the same thing as you, so the last couple of days i'm spending my time trying to speed up the process.
tl;drUsed some fairly unknown techniques to get usage data from websites combined with publicly available data.
Hacking around my code to speed up the 1TB+ of data filter to generate graph back to april 2013.
Running optimized on 6 CPU´s, graph from 01 January 2013 until 16 May 2014 should be done in about 3-4 days
Would be an easy way of predicting big differences in short term demand and possible price. Therefore i predict it won't work. We'll see in a couple of days
8.
Post 6947163 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
9.
Post 8781925 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.12h):
Lol. Re: girlfriends - mine kept saying 'what if it's not really open source? What if it's a plot by *insertshit*.
I would say 'no look, here is the source code. Look. It's there. That's it. That's what it is. I can see what it is and what it will do.'
More frustrating than the bear market tbh!
I would say to mine "No one can stop you transacting Bitcoin and there is no power
on earth that can take your coins from you if you store them properly. You can walk with impunity through any customs port in the world. Bitcoin will make mockery of capital controls. Someone just transacted $20,000,000 in a few minutes and paid no fees". She would respond "that's very good my dear...... Where do you want to eat tonight".
Ragnar
NSA back door discovered on all iPhones direct from factory! The scope of these NSA intrusions are not even known yet...
do NOT believe you are safe because you have android phone. the NSA will be able to seize your coins under almost any circumstance, if they wish to. maybe some of the hacks are NSA thefts? how do you know they are not?
Sure, but who said anything about a phone?
NSA has back doors installed in common software as well. Windows, Mac OS X, you better believe it. Any time they want, they can access your PC with a RAT and steal the coins! There is nothing anyone can do!
Is this the currency you would like to trust your life savings too? I think many people prefer cash and traditional banking still!
They're going to steal my coins that are on a machine running an open source OS, open source wallet, that doesn't have wifi?
OK, how... and then... why?
Heyhey, security specialist here,
How about modifying hardware chips at a major supplier to mess with the entropy of the pseudorandom number generator of your system. Then, with a significantly smaller possible key-space only known to the attackers, regenerate keys and find balances to swipe.
In this case your offline machine can be crushed, burned and burried right after you generate your wallet and still be swiped years later.
Don't be fooled by your idea of knowing what there is to know about this subject. Diversify your storage methods like you diversify your investments. You simply can't know the unknown, but you can manage the unknown.
-xalex
10.
Post 10481051 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
Heyhey,
Might be able to help you out. I'm a security specialist and know a lot about brute forcing passwords, seeds and private keys.
I have no idea how to prove honesty. I just like a challenge every now an then, and read your post.
If you feel like it, send me a PM. Even if you don't trust the situation enough, I could at least explain your options and chances of retrieval. All free of charge.
11.
Post 10538149 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
Yes becaus people who already had the video cards were using them to game, and mine on the side. But to buy it and mine exclusively had to be crazy. I dont even think they knew about the gpu power until 2011 or 2012. They were still using cpu back then until they figured out the computing efficiency
I remember doing that actually. Gamed and mined a little whenever I wasn't gaming.
I did buy a couple of graphics cards just to mine bitcoin. There was simply no decent way to trade traditional currency for BTC yet back then, no localbitcoins, no widespread community.
If you wanted bitcoins, you had to mine them.
Fun fact: Bought the cards brand new. Sold them half a year later for about 20% profit. Bitcoin mining had actually created a scarcity in graphics cards with all the decent ones being back ordered for weeks. I do wonder if the sales guys at ATI knew what the hell was going on. I never really bothered to check, but I can imagine an overproduction happening when ASIC's became a reality.
12.
Post 10853590 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
just another dead cat bounce
Is this cat made of rubber?
Seriously , cats do not even really bounce.
Chuck one off the top of a skyscraper and see what happens.
Splat.
Actually,
The terminal velocity of a falling cat is often non-lethal.
Real live data even suggests cats falling off the 7th floor or above will have less injuries compared to 6th floor or below:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat_righting_reflex#Terminal_velocity
13.
Post 10853839 (copy this link) (by xalex) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
I suggest many of you should be open to learning new things. I might be proven wrong, but for now my provided link clearly states:
- cats do not land on their feet after falling from great height.
- real data (~130 cats from NY) is available on falling cats and mortality/injury rate.
- height > 7 stories does increase survival rate based on data
"In a 1987 study, published in the Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, of 132 cats that were brought into the New York Animal Medical Center after having fallen from buildings, it was found that the injuries per cat increased depending on the height fallen up to seven stories, but decreased above seven stories.[8] The study authors speculated that after falling five stories the cats reached terminal velocity and thereafter relaxed and spread their bodies to increase drag."
I'll probably be lurking again after this one. The forums have gone pretty rotten the last couple of years.
