All posts made by oakpacific in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1861952 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
This has been one wild week... I've been dealing with calls and emails nearly 24 hours a day. Managed to keep most of the panic sells between old and new clients and off the market.
So has the panic stopped? Are we going to see more upwards activity again?
Fundamentally nothing has changed, it is my opinion that the crash was caused by gox and those who sold into the lag, only to see their market orders execute much lower than expected. I currently have >$15M waiting to buy, however the vast majority will be off exchange. Many of these private trades are at individually negotiated prices, sometimes significantly different from market.
So you operate the biggest Bitcoin dark pool, Loaded?
2.
Post 1864040 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
wow that flat line price. Bears didn't even tried
The question is can they still try? the 2M BTCs sold is not like the typical amount you would tip a waiter.
3.
Post 1864065 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Why the hell wasn't there any lag on the way down?
Shills:" I don't know, but Gox must be manipulating to keep the price up!"
4.
Post 1864123 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
What intrigues me is that yesterday we have triple more volume and no lag.
That maybe because what Gox said is truth: people are buying right now yet they didn't cancel their orders at lower prices, so the number of checks Gox needs to execute goes up multi-fold. In a panic sell like yesterday people would not have expected to have their orders at higher prices filled so they simply cancel them(besides those that are backed up with funds).
5.
Post 1901373 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Must read, clarifies your thoughts on the price (3 min only).The "double auction" method described, is the way I also would solve the fiat/BTC problem. Coupled with a Dealer Network, where only the members have access to the auction, and the general public either buys from them OTC or uses the real-time exchanges, which are relegated to a marginal "casino" role, where the bulls and bears both win, only sheep get slaughtered.
Long term transfer of coin-denominated wealth would go the route of "large private holds -> Dealer Network (most of these by design have large holds themselves and may therefore easily unload their own holdings) -> paper wallets of the new adopters".
You do realize that you are in a community where any service operator who can't achieve more than 99.999% uptime will get crucified on the cross of shame and be spitted on?
Geeks don't give a damn about your fancy order-matching idea, and how a real world exchange should operate, if you dare to entertain with the idea of an exchange not having to process orders real-time every second 24*7, you will get strapped of your badge of nerdiness and ostracized forever.
6.
Post 1906764 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
That's right. Just sell - my wire only clears after several hours, so you have plenty of time to take it to 80 now..
Depends on if they still have enough to sell to $80...
7.
Post 1906796 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
electricmucus is by far the most pathetic troll of them all, i very much doubt anyone even bothers reading the crap he comes out with, because all he does is spread FUD all over every forum thread, it's very sad and very pathetic that such a lame troll has to be so desperate as to troll all the threads and be so desperate as to try and make people listen to him
Maybe one day he'll do everyone a favor and just leave, but until then i hope that everyone just ignores him, because really it's quite sad to see a person be so pathetic and desperate.
The ignore button is your friend. I can only imagine how dark EM's "ignore" button is at this moment.
To mentally ignore someone is more important than technically ignoring him.
8.
Post 1909082 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
After watching the other wall charts/wall chart thread for a long time and noticing along with some other people that there was a 10 pages to 1 bitcoin ratio most of the time.
I think it's funny that that thread is now locked at 1200 posts and the price is right around 120, there's my observation.
adam, unlock the old thread!!!
Please not, too much centralization.
9.
Post 1916339 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Can someone explain why dump 4500K BTC on the market with such slippage. Are there not trading programs that will slice the order up into smaller, random appearing pieces and consume tasty bids from time to time until the whole order is filled? One could do that manually too.
The slippage is not that great, consider what we had been having.
10.
Post 1919952 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Wow, no wonder the bid sum keeps hitting new ATHs. 23m and still rising
No surprise here, who did you think bought 200M dollars worth of bitcoins at $50-$100?
11.
Post 1920157 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
These are taken from the old Wall Observer thread:
April 3:Haven't seen Loaded around for quite some time.
April 7: Wild week ahead...
April 9:This is only the beginning.
April 10: Crash!Recently:This week is gonna be fun.
Why should I welcome you, Loaded Stormcrow?
A just question, my liege. Late is the hour in which this venture capitalist chooses to appear. "Lathspell" I name him. Ill news is an ill guest.
Maybe Loaded just got furious because of your comment, now repent before you feel his wrath.
12.
Post 1920656 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
what caused the "crash" when it went to 136 on the 19th?
Last time when I bought at this price it crashed! So I better sell quickly now that I made 1% profit!
13.
Post 1926534 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
There is not enough bid volume (see blockchained.info) to pass 150.
Let's stabilize in the 140s a couple of hours and then we will attack the great wall
Simple, if all the buy orders higher than ....$132 on the bid side can stop sit and shit, and come down to attack the wall, it will be gone.
14.
Post 1928563 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Some big folks really desperate to sell their coins at whatever price!
In what way is selling at the top of a 15% increase in less than a day "desperate" and "at whatever price"?
Seems like straight up profit taking to me.
Could even be the same people that started the rally. lol.
If profit taking would matter, Wouldn't it be more profitable to expand the bids with walls than to eat down the ask side ?
Bitcoin has got an economy, businesses need to convert their BTCs immediately from time to time. Yeah, maybe they sell in a urge, but certainly nowhere near desperate.
15.
Post 1928669 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:
- the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.
IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.
We don't need any more publicity I think, enough people are already aware of its existence, the important thing now is to get them to change their minds.
16.
Post 1928729 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:
- the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.
IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.
Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.
But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.
Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.
In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.
200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.
17.
Post 1928825 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:
- the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.
IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.
Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.
But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.
Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.
In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.
200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.
That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.
If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.
Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....
18.
Post 1928881 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:
- the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.
IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.
Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.
But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.
Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.
In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.
200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.
That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.
If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.
Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....
That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.
For serious money (i mean
serious money) to enter
BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.
It's not just the problem of Gox, every bank wants to restrict you when it comes to withdrawal of large amount of money, they usually only keep the minimum amount of reserve required so it will always be a PITA.
19.
Post 1928919 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.
For serious money (i mean serious money) to enter BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.
It's not just the problem of Gox, every bank wants to restrict you when it comes to withdrawal of money, they usually only keep the minimum amount of reserve required so it will always be a PITA.
Well, that's true if you want CASH from your bank - but when you are moving "electronic" money from one account/bank to another you don't need more than 2/3 business days, many times with 1 day is enough, and its very unlikely your money will never go through. With Gox you may have to wait for almost a month with your withdrawal on "processing", and the fear the money will never come out because of hack, shut down by law enforcement, scam, whatever, is high.
For small account holders like me, definitely that's the case. But I am not sure if they would still be so generous if I were to process tens of millions of dollars worth of withdrawals per month. But yes, it's quite obvious Gox can't keep up with it as well.
20.
Post 1928941 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Only 7800btc to get through 150. A lot of that wall disappeared in the last 5 hours.
Some of them actually got sold into the bid side I believe.
21.
Post 1929657 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
~BTC4k dump
it will go up again... and if this guy sees price goes up.. he might wanne buy in again or at least some part of it..
160+ seems possible..
then again.. this is bitcoin!
got a stop order way below just in case
but i have faith in our us friends for now.
And this... How do you place stop loss order at Gox? It's crazy you cannot do it, anybody investing serious money needs that kind of tools.
cavirtex has that.
Yeah, but came on... Who is Cavirtex? Would you wire them a couple millions?
If you have got a few million, you shouldn't use the Web UI, get someone to setup a bot for you.
22.
Post 1929816 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I've turned from short term bear to short term bull, the constant price gains set a mood of regaining confidence, generating buying spree and hysteria to hop in the bandwagon until the next bubble burst. $200
here we come!
"Return to normal"
For a lot of people 'normal' never left, haha. I've seen bitcoin do these mega drops like four times now over the last couple years. We'll see how this plays out but a continued rise wouldn't surprise me.
For a lot of people it's either "delusional", "denial" "return to normal" or "despair".
23.
Post 1930354 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Have the Gox changes actually gone through?
I don't know, they handled the 500K BTCs crash without a problem, yet they seem to be lagging here and there right now when orders with insufficient balance are already banned and volume is not high.
24.
Post 1930593 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Seems that things have changed a lot since 2011.
25.
Post 1930605 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
For all they have done I will give my forgiveness if they enable funding exchanges through Paypal again.
26.
Post 1930717 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I too wouldn't touch paypal but the influx of people using BTC would be huge...
Oh yeah, totally agree. I am happy to see it for that reason. People are free to use Paypal all they want. I just wouldn't go near them...
The key here is the publicity, rather than convenience brought by such a move: if both WU and Paypal start supporting Bitcoin, all those Ponzi scheme/fraud talk can GTFO.
27.
Post 1940843 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.
How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?
If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?
I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?
I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?
Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/. I was trading when that happened, in fact I was very happy because of the unbelievable buying opportunity until Gox fucked up and halted trading to induce "market cooldown". You can check the forums and you will see I was the first one to post about this "market cooldown"
I had to wake up at 4AM to be ready when Gox reopened, just to see how my big buy order at 35€ was not fulfilled for just a couple of euros (bottom in € was 37€). That really pissed me off, I think I should trade in USD, as it's much easier to spot support and resistance points.
Doubtful, if you have followed this market for long, you will know that at certain price points the buying/selling volume will spike up, probably bots triggered by price movement, the same thing may happened during the crash.
28.
Post 1959075 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
20 seconds of lag and people are panic selling at $132 while others panic buy at $139 - gotta love this
This:
I think it's noobs getting trolled.
29.
Post 1959112 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
20 seconds of lag and people are panic selling at $132 while others panic buy at $139 - gotta love this
This:
I think it's noobs getting trolled.
Nice edit :p
The manipulator was like saying:" I sure as hell can push the price past $140, as I almost did($139.88), but, I am not going to let you know my decision yet."
30.
Post 2572068 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Maybe just badly programmed bot costing its master money.
31.
Post 2572126 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Maybe two whales are using Gox for escrowing....
32.
Post 2572157 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
50 BTC moves the market 5 bucks :-)
Looks like bull and bear sentiment is diverging -- some whales REALLY think we're going up, some REALLY think we are going down. I don't believe a single player is manipulating both sides -- too expensive
Agreed. And both too dumb/panicky to drip feed their orders and save a load of money.
I suspect someone maybe using Gox as a escrowing agent, since they can't trust anyone else with such large sum of money....
33.
Post 3346928 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Nice rally! Can we now all finally agree that 2013 is much different from 2011? EletricMucus, you there? :p
Things are looking good.. $1000 may come sooner than we think! 2014 perhaps?
Unlikely to happen anytime soon, unless there is some fundamental landscape shift. Billions of dollars are not so easy to move through the veils of the dinosaur that is known as the banking system, and the dodgy exchanges we have now cannot be entrusted with such large amount of wealth.
34.
Post 3348821 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
When this puppy hits $169 we'll be at $2 billion market cap.
Wouldn't $169 on Gox as 'market cap' be even less meaningful than before due to Gox's premium existing due only to choked fiat?
You can use Gox JPY price as a meaningful indicator, which is now close to $160.
35.
Post 3385291 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Chinese wall at 200 crumbles!!!
36.
Post 3488229 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
I can't believe I am here again watching Bitcoin price rising towards $266, everything about it seems to be magic.
37.
Post 3489885 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Wow, a one million dollar order!
38.
Post 3495494 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
CHARGE!!!!
39.
Post 3495535 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
time seems to be nonlinear when we are close to the ATH
40.
Post 3495549 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Broken!!
41.
Post 3495668 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
I think it would have been nice to have an animation anyway after the long Bitcoin winter.
So, time to switch to a different exchange for measuring highs?
we all know the bitcoin stamp is the real price, but we want to party anyway
Well, the stamp high was lower anyway. The China high, that's a bit more difficult...
42.
Post 3495792 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
"This is the first time the cryptocurrency has set a price record since the price reached $266, and then imploded, in April." <-- from the article.
I think imploded is a bit strong there.
I think "imploded" is fair.
As fair as calling Mt.Gox "the largest Bitcoin exchange".
43.
Post 3504640 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
A bit of a suggestion: when you want to withdraw your BTCs from Gox, click "Open Transactions" and "pay 0.001 BTC fee" at the same time to increase your chance of success.
44.
Post 3504710 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
45.
Post 3504798 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
this 266.9 whale gotta be a bit of a joker selling just above april's ath
probably got burnt then and made a vow to not sell until price is at least as high. now he's just making sure he doesn't get burnt again, but I would say he's being too careful considering other exchanges are now even higher
oh shit just as i was writing this i had a thought: he could be one of the Cypriots that caused the price to skyrocket in april, maybe he bought in at like 260 and now he just wants his money back
How do you know it's not Gox?
46.
Post 3505254 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
What about CampBX? Do they not look legitimate? Their price has been low, and liquidity pretty small, I even wonder how/why are they continuing this business, it doesn't seem profitable at all.
47.
Post 3506210 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
At what point do the gox fiat holders freak out at the diminishing bitcoin orderbook and just panic buy to get out? Time to put some gas on this fire.
Bitstamp is even worse in terms of BTC available for purchase.
If the increasing prices don't lure some more coins onto the orderbook soon it's going to get very interesting.
Don't worry, BTCs will come in, miners have to pay their bills after all.
48.
Post 3506657 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
It is funny that we can now move up more than the height of the 2011 peak in just one day.
49.
Post 3506662 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Bought big today.
Welcome back, old friend. I read your Reddit AMA as well.
I kept looking for him a bit.
50.
Post 3506812 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Will not sleep until 300
Will not sleep until 300
Will not sleep until 300
Will not sleep until 300
Will not sleep until 300
Wish SR hadn't got shut down about now... need some nose candy
You can sleep now.
51.
Post 3506994 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I wonder if Gox will need a "market cooldown" this time.
52.
Post 3507514 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
$320....I vaguely remember there was a time when Bitcoin was $32, and many people thought it was overvalued afterwards and cannot happen again....must be like ages ago.
53.
Post 3521219 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I was kidding, it was a nod to proudhon.
I'm of the opinion that next bear market will be the most devastating and the longest one so far (worse than 2011) because everyone is caught up in the belief that if only they hold long enough, they cannot possibly lose out on BTC, no matter their entry price. Every dip is a buying opportunity etc.
Furthermore, the current bubble developed very quickly after only 7 months between former alltime high. So, it's a bubble on top of a bubble in the same year.
We can talk about that once we actually top out. So far, we haven't even doubled from the 266 high.
There are only so many bitcoins for sale, and not every is caught up in the same belief.
The first guy to dump, for example, would have a different opinion.
In fact, that's what happened this April.
54.
Post 3526545 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
xxx's law: People forgive the ineptness of a certain exchange when it keeps showing high price on the ticker.
55.
Post 3526594 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
xxx's law: People forgive the ineptness of a certain exchange when it keeps showing high price on the ticker.
Nah, you see lots of quotes from the different exchanges and everyone will tell you Gox isn't the end all be all. Its just the highest. Very different from the attitude in April.
It has been a while since I last heard people talking about it, everyone has a threshold of sanity.
56.
Post 3526646 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
The problem is that there's only 3000B in BTCChina, less than 10000B in bitstamp, and 10000B in Mt.Gox. I think currently the main reason of sky-rocketing is short of supply. Where're the sellers? Is it true that those who have huge amount are afraid to sell in the open market due to the identification verification?
If you look carefully, Gox's wall was always reinforced after it has been eaten into, at a time I saw only about 6000 BTCs on the ask side.
57.
Post 3526875 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I wish I was here for the run up to $266, because I would love to know how long traders on here were predicting the top before it actually came.
A lot of people are saying the top is soon and a crash is coming. But, it feels like we are not quite at that epic stage yet.
It feels like either we go down a bit and consolidate for another sustainable run or we keep running at break neck pace until we crash. But that seems like something around or north of $500 at least. Something that just gets wild.
The thing that is throwing me off is China. They are in such a growth curve that either they are pouring massive amounts of liquidity into that market in far excess to what the other exchanges can compete with, or they are going to hit hard and harder a lot faster.
If China continues to widen its lead, if it does have a hard snap back, I wonder if the other exchanges will actually react that strongly to it?
It seems like the exchanges are starting to operate separate from each other.
There maybe one single factor distinguishing China from other nations: people here can use Alipay to send CNY into exchanges(and that's usually what we do), which is instant and with less anti-laundering check and works 24/7, while other nations have to rely on sluggish banks which are open for business for only 30 hours per week. The theoretical liquidity that can be injected into the Chinese exchanges is thus huge.
58.
Post 3526920 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Obviously the "bull trap" part.
59.
Post 3528498 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
It's not at all similar to this spring, or we would have crashed deeply with volume of more than 100k BTCs already.
I am completely speechless with the tenacity of this price fly-up, it simply refuses to go down, several crash attempts are just easily absorbed, each time countered a powerful buy wave.
60.
Post 3528942 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
took more losses and bought some more back!
My last sale was at 375. My next sell is for 400.
thats the best way to do it, sell little bits slowly as its rising.
no, it stinks. I always do this and it inevitably turns out that simply holding would've been better.
well if you want to sell thats the way to do it.
it really sucks selling it all at once and then realizing that bitcoin is a little honey badger.
Bitcoin is a dragon, it's immune to all magics, it's Chinese, and it's going to fly high.
61.
Post 3528965 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I have to take off my hat to BTCChina, it's a weekend and how do they process 200 million CNY? They must have immense clout.
62.
Post 3528981 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I have to take off my hat to BTCChina, it's a weekend and how do they process 200 million CNY? They must have immense clout.
They processed 200 million CNY? Did I overlook something?
BTC 80000 volume in a day, 2000-2600 CNY range, mostly up, some significant amount of money must get in I guess, it's very easy to withdraw in China so I guess hardly anyone keep their fiats on the exchange.
63.
Post 3529036 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I have to take off my hat to BTCChina, it's a weekend and how do they process 200 million CNY? They must have immense clout.
They processed 200 million CNY? Did I overlook something?
BTC 80000 volume in a day, 2000-2600 CNY range, mostly up, some significant amount of money must get in I guess, it's very easy to withdraw in China so I guess hardly anyone keep their fiats on the exchange.
Zero trading fee means a large part of the volume is just inside the exchange and no depositing and withdrawing. Moreover, BTCChina currently is using TenPay (a PayPal like service provided by TenCent) for depositing and withdrawing, which is instant and running 24/7.
I think not really many trust their fiats with the exchanges, and they don't have to, deposit takes very little time to process anyway. And although Tenpay and Alipay have lax regulations when compared with banks, such money flow is still very noticeable, they would have quite some PR to do to maneuver the authorities(wherever there is money, you can count on them keeping a closer look on it)
64.
Post 3536123 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
If this is all that the bears can achieve on a SUnday, I could say our hope of buying more at a cheaper price is pretty dim.
65.
Post 3536969 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Come out, all broken clocks, it's the day of your life!
66.
Post 3536986 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
At least the exchanges are holding up this time around. The damage is much less and I can day-trade. Great BTC returns today.
Mmmm well... BTCChina down, Gox with a 20 minutes lag when started to crash... Not really holding up very well.. I wonder if we are being atacked once again... Definitely, it is really odd to randomly see Incapsula page when trying to access BTCChina..
BTCChina is not down in China, the only place matters.
67.
Post 3536994 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
buy & hold always work guys
Like...for the last 5 years?
68.
Post 3537062 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
The banks are doing everything to hit their own feet, a really effective way to kill bitcoin would have been improving the speed they process their transactions, rendering Bitcoin's advantages useless, instead they have been trying to block fiat transfers more arbitrarily.
69.
Post 3537072 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
But...but, teh China, teh ATM, teh Paypal. It's different this time...right?
Nope. Bitcoin is going to be a volatile crazy ride for years to come.
That's how disruptive new voluntary technology works.
For something started at $0, yet immensely useful, of course!
Had Google/Facebook/Twitter's IPO prices being $0, we would have seen the same kind of crazy ride, just much more volatile.
70.
Post 3537132 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
In my three years following this market I have never seen such a unimpressive dump, period.
71.
Post 3537157 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
In my three years following this market I have never seen such a unimpressive dump, period.
no it was good dump...
its cuz you've been here so long your become desensitized to price swings
To stall the market for a while, the down volume should at least be larger than the daily up volume of the previous run-up, now it's only at around 50%.....I expect at least 100K BTCs, so far there has been no more than 20K.
72.
Post 3539517 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
After reading this thread I conclude that we have two kinds of speculators here: bulls, and ultrabulls.
73.
Post 3544345 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
gox people are ultra-bulls because they are willing to take chances because money is almost impossible to get out of there.
stamp are the middle, bit nervous but basically the real average
btc-e are total bears, kills them to be in triple digits
the third point becomes less true in strong rallies and more true in deep corrections.....btc-e traders are definitely a panicky crowd one the trend shows any sign of changing.
Can anyone explain why anyone would sell on Btc-e for less than they could get on Stamp? Is it because of trading between LTC and others or something?
It's difficult to get USD into Russia.
74.
Post 3556794 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.
Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.
It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.
This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.
If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.
Of course, China will not like this.
You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.
75.
Post 3557044 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.
Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.
It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.
This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.
If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.
Of course, China will not like this.
You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.
I was also worried when people were selling bitcoins and wanted to convince them so they stop. But now I'm not worried any more. They want to sell? Let them. The true value of bitcoin is rising anyway because of ever bigger infrastructure that is created every day. Which means, the price will be higher no matter what and should not come from holding coins in pockets. Just be patient and don't sell your coins if you need some profit that way but still I much more prefer to simply create my own site that accepts bitcoin instead of speculation or holding. It benefit's everyone that way.
I meant you can't stop Chinese online sellers doing Bitcoin sales, even if the government cracks down on exchanges. It may even be the case that government is aware of the futility of such crack down and decides to leave us alone. Anyway, if Bitcoin gets really big, what's stopping them from building several huge farms and mine the hell out of it? Who wants to compete with China in Bitcoin mining cost?
76.
Post 3557186 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.
Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.
It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.
This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.
If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.
Of course, China will not like this.
You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.
I was also worried when people were selling bitcoins and wanted to convince them so they stop. But now I'm not worried any more. They want to sell? Let them. The true value of bitcoin is rising anyway because of ever bigger infrastructure that is created every day. Which means, the price will be higher no matter what and should not come from holding coins in pockets. Just be patient and don't sell your coins if you need some profit that way but still I much more prefer to simply create my own site that accepts bitcoin instead of speculation or holding. It benefit's everyone that way.
I meant you can't stop Chinese online sellers doing Bitcoin sales, even if the government cracks down on exchanges. It may even be the case that government is aware of the futility of such crack down and decides to leave us alone. Anyway, if Bitcoin gets really big, what's stopping them from building several huge farms and mine the hell out of it? Who wants to compete with China in Bitcoin mining cost?
If it comes to :
Electricity cost > Russia
Workforce > Bangladesh or India
But when you have to take in
both factors...
Also there is IC fabrication cost, land, cooling, construction, etc...
77.
Post 3557257 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
But when you have to take in
both factors...
Also there is IC fabrication cost, land, cooling, construction, etc...
You know , there are lots of countries out there who are manufacturing electronics , and many who export those into China
Don't be so sure Malaysia , Thailand and many others are taken out of the equation
Remember when those floods hit Thailand and the hdd price went to the skies?
Electronic components, yes. But when you want to build an entire miner from scratch with everything being purchased at home so that you can be sure there is not a backdoor somewhere.....
And don't forget the commies have unrivalled capability to amass public resources should they decide to get involved...
78.
Post 3564411 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Stamp ATH! European reinforcement has arrived!
79.
Post 3564454 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Anything to stop a westerner opening and trading on a BTCChina account?
You will need a working phone number. Other than this, no verification process.
Also keep in mind that it might be complicated to get (fiat) money out from there.
"Might be complicated" is an understatement. Chinese citizens are limited to 50k CNY remitted per year. Considering you're probably not a Chinese citizen, you're going to have difficulties.
No problems if you import a lot.
It's 50K USD, not 50K CNY. Also, those who want it have not had much problem obtaining USD. A lot of us don't really care much about the law(a point that must be empathized time and again) , the USD black market is very prosperous.
80.
Post 3564490 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Looks like China is making a move...
It is 8:00 AM there now. I guess they just needed to get their cup of coffee and get going.
I am really starting to appreciate China.
green tea, please!
(srsly, that stuff is good. as a lifelong coffee drinker some tea really kicks me in)
Coffee?
Blasphemy!
81.
Post 3564607 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
It's little strange... Stamp an Btc-e are going crazy, but BtcChina (ok the did before stamp) and Gox aren't moving alot.
It is strange to see BTChina not react a lot. Not sure if good news or bad news.
There is definitely reaction, like breaking the 3d high, whether it's a lot or not I will leave to you to decide..
82.
Post 3564677 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Are we repeating the pattern we saw several days ago?
Stamp breaks out first, followed by a surge in China, ended with a explosive wave on Gox.
83.
Post 3566488 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Could it be that the Bitcoin popularity arrived at a bad time? I mean this year the price surged and many people became aware of Bitcoin but looking at the infraestructure that surrounds Bitcoin you can see that it is still in its infancy so I imagine many people who got interested in it at first also got dissapointed when they found all the trouble trading with Bitcoins entails, all the technical stuff surrounding it and the kind of shadyness of many of the services surrounding the virtual coin. For example the noobishness of some of the big exchanges. I can't help but feel that the hype was somehow kind of wasted because of all these problems. Maybe later when the infraestructure is more mature people will adopt it faster and it will become a much bigger phenomenon. What do you think?
This is why the exchange rate is still quite low.
Bitcoin is a marathon, not a sprint.
Yeah. If we did not have the undeveloped infrastructure, people could just easily buy bitcoins, and the price would rise really fast and be already much higher. You can't have it both ways.
Infrastructure......what a fancy name for hobnobbing with dinosaur banks....
84.
Post 3567713 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
I still can't see why anyone would even consider wiring fiat to Gox right now
For example, because New Zealand doesn't have SEPA, and wires to Slovenia are not coming through.
To go after someone on a Japanese court, is less of a formidable task than doing the same thing on a Slovenian court.
85.
Post 3567835 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
I still can't see why anyone would even consider wiring fiat to Gox right now
For example, because New Zealand doesn't have SEPA, and wires to Slovenia are not coming through.
To go after someone on a Japanese court, is less of a formidable task than doing the same thing on a Slovenian court.
You wire to Slovenia, in a week your money just get returned to your account. Who would you sue? And what for?
In case they run away with my money(not really me but those who can invest millions of dollars)
86.
Post 3568009 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
87.
Post 3568771 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
It's funny how all those bears are back in their cage right now.
Or no, it's sad... I can only imagine how it feels like to miss a train/rocket.
Bears? All I saw are broken clocks.
88.
Post 3569224 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Is 420 still around? I remember calling him out when we reached 42.
89.
Post 3591838 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
News flash:
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bank/hykx/20131115/083317332778.shtmlThe CEO of Huobi, one Chinese Bitcoin exchange which processed tens of millions of dollars a day, has told a journalist that out of the site's VIP customers(those who trade more than 10 million CNYs per month), 40% are females, it's widely suspected that most of them are damas, i.e. female kins of wealthy businessmen in China.
He also confirms that they have started talks with Great Wisdom, maker of China's leading stock trading software, about the acquisition of his company by Great Wisdom, and is developing a series of financial products based on Bitcoin.
90.
Post 3747792 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
it is just as easy to use as BTC if not more so cuz to download the wallet its like sooo much faster.
Bitcoin was a lot faster too, back before it was widely used.
If Litecoin was ever actually used in real life for all these fast transactions you keep talking about it wouldn't scale any better than Bitcoin.
im not so sure about that, the ltc dev team is aware of the mistakes that btc made and is trying to fix them before we run into that problem.
but anyway its what people use first they sort of stick with, and for millions of chinese it seems to be ltc
im not a btc hater at all but i saw the advantages and ltc very early and well this is no shock at all to me.
and for the people who are expecting a dump, well it might correct down some but its not like us long time ltc holders are going to do anything.
Goat if you ever want to cashout some ltcs let me know
91.
Post 4038617 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Dead/dying now. Going to sleep for 15 hours. Expect some upside IF I had any successful.
Yes, I did specifically have to request a normal toilet in a five star hotel suite. They put it in the bathroom away from where I'm sleeping. I ruined a thousand dollar suit the last time I had to use one of those.
You must have been a frequent traveler to China, otherwise how could you get a visa so quickly?
92.
Post 4050780 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Maybe Loaded just got back with his cheap coins and wants some bucks back.
He must play both ways, after all.
You can't blame him for needing a little cash back - it ain't all his own money....
EDIT - everyone was asking 'how do you arb China'? Answer - take a plane full of USD over
He has said it's not him, but one of his clients is eager to buy.
Also he has been careful to not panic the market(at least that's what he said), so he just facilitates trade between his customers, and I guess charge transaction fees.
And yes, this market is prone to manipulation, but anyone here who thinks the posters on this thread are relevant enough to make Loaded keep coming back and playing tricks is clearly delusional.
93.
Post 4050888 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
The way I see it is that there are the big players, who can individually move the price to wherever they want, and the rest of the market that can collectively move it, but not where any individual wants it. But if any of the big guys does something that the majority of the market disagrees with, or any one of the other big players, they get burned...
Big guys hardly ever agree with each other as well, what Loaded called "whale eating"...
94.
Post 4053605 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
So because the price is up all the bulls come out?
Real investors don't give shit about what others have to say, but they usually brag once in a while.
95.
Post 4068150 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
Seems that Loaded's purchase indeed works, Chinese price has been climbing.
96.
Post 4068219 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
Seems that Loaded's purchase indeed works, Chinese price has been climbing.
But won't he have to sell on his return to turn a profit, or will he hodl?
Whales don't move coins to arbitrage, if they want to sell they will do immediately after the purchase is done, otherwise other big whales can one-up you and crash the market, especially if you made the whole deal public.
97.
Post 4185118 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
The official December update is coming at the end of December. My current trendline which is calculated from daily prices until 15.12.2013, shows that we are at $469 now. We have not yet had any daily breaches of the trendline since the latest bubblepop.
Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.
In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.
I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence
Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.
This is to refute oda.krell who does not base his predictions of "trends" on anything, I at least try. Nobody has shown any proof on any trend other than this, except lines drawn on a whim. I don't understand much, but there is a great difference between founded and unfounded prediction.
It is very easy to buy at your desired level btw. It is called "limit order".
I know one, but I have no interest sharing it here.
98.
Post 4185717 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
Whether it's up or down, Loaded probably is going to move the market anyway,
99.
Post 12871568 (copy this link) (by oakpacific) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Feels good to post in this thread again.
