Some meta speculation:
Right now for a 0.5 watt per GH miner, the electrical cost (0.08 per KWH) per BTC is around $130. So any idea that BTC would go to some low number is ridiculous. Miners will want to recapitalize in this time period in anticipation of the halving. Recapitalization takes money and also requires the latest mining equipment. One explanation for the dip in BTC could be that investors are spending on new equipment and establishing new BTC mines. It's cold now in the northern hemisphere now, so this is the perfect time to expand.
The bump to $500 is consistent with the above because a miner will want to bank BTC while making a decision on what to buy and how many. This next cycle of capitalization with miners that are 2X more efficient and about 3X more expensive combined with BTC halving complicates the ROI decision.
I think BTC is on the cusp of being unstoppable. If some nation were to try to exercise control, I could see other countries or commercial entities setting up competing BTC mining operations. The chip technology behind BTC chips is certainly unremarkable and could be copied by anyone.
One other angle in regards to BTC, BTC price jumps and China which is insufficiently appreciated is that BTC can allow money to be transferred out of China quite easily, which gets around currency controls. If some wealthy person needed to move their fortune out fast, I think BTC is the only way to go. FYI, right now people pay a 20% premium to walk their money across the border into HK.