based on the old money that moved yesterday, a few less than a couple days ago.  Definitely some solid profit taking happening yesterday during the rundown.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

You can't move coins to another exchange.  Everything is locked down atm.

But in case you haven't been paying attention (which it looks like you haven't), that's exactly what people were doing in the last month or so before gox officially announced everything was on hold.  Which is why we saw the spread between gox and the other exchanges grow so much in the last few weeks as people tried desperately to move all their fiat into BTC (and their BTC out of gox).

I think the real question is, how much does that matter?

Lets say the price settles around $700 until gox next announcement (they said Monday they'll have an update, right?), at which time they basically come out and confirm they're done.  What would that do to the price?  As far as I'm concerned, the current rundown is already working under the assumption that any funds locked up in Gox are doomed.  So any official announcement by Gox may result in a very short term reaction downwards, but logically it should bounce back up close to current levels pretty quickly.

Simply put, I think it's a reasonable assumption to think that the current prices already have the worst case Gox scenario priced in (or at least, pretty close to it).  There would still be short term reaction to an official gox announcement, but any fall should see a pretty quick bounce back to current levels (by current, I mean wherever we end up Sunday/Monday before any official statement).

Whereas good news (aka people being able to move BTC out of Gox) would see a huge price spike, with the other exchanges following along at a less extreme, but still upwards, rate.

That said, I'm still hoping for some more downward pressure in the coming days leading up to an announcement by Gox.

Wow, the bitstamp order books are crazy right now.

Go away for an hour and the whole thing flips.  One minute theres crazy sell pressure, the next there's none and there's all these buy walls.  I love this action.

Anyone know what's the deal is with Coinbase?  Their price is running about $25 over bitstamp right now, which is by far the furthest I've seen them spread.  Usually they're pegged right within a dollar or two of stamp as that's where they do all their orders from (at least, that was the common assumption).  Very odd that they've been sitting between 695-700 while stamp hovers around 670-675.

Anyone know what's going on there?

possibly, it just seemed odd since I've never really seen them go out of their way to set their own price, which it seems like their doing here.

It's also setting up a rare arbitrage opportunity between the two.  Even after coinbase's high selling fees, there's still a solid $15+ gap between them.  Those coins can be flipped pretty damn fast.

And, just like that it happens (didn't exactly announce they're done, but did spread other fud).

Pretty happy to see us bounce right back up near previous levels after Gox fud.  Markets (mainly BTC-E) certainly reacted a little crazier than I expected, but I think it's a rather encouraging sign for the long term value of bitcoin, to see it get smashed hard with deceptive news and have people almost immediately identify it as such and restore most of the value back.

I believe your gift was cheap coins

*Note, I have no TA abilities.  I rely on very basic eye test and common sense*

I think today was VERY bullish for the long term.  To deal with the FUD and panic we had today, and currently be sitting at over 3%+ in the last 24 hours as of this post, is incredibly good news for the long term prospects.

That said, I'd be surprised if we were to really test these buy walls at 720 and 750 (on stamp) too much in the short to medium term.  Lots of buyers spent money today getting cheap coins, which means 1) people are going to be less liquid to buy at current prices and 2) People who got cheap coins could add more selling pressure at these levels.

So short/medium term, I expect a little downward pressure, but nothing too serious.  A lot of low volume sidewise/slightly down activity similar to most of January.  It'll probably be boring and unsexy.

But, I can't help end today with a smile on my face (it helps I got some cheap coins... though not as many or as cheap as I would have liked lol).  While I don't see us headed to the moon for now, I think today was actually a large step in the right direction.

Sorry, what i meant to say was, TO DA MOON TOMORROW or else DOOM for all and $10 coins by next week!!!

I feel like I fit in much better now.

1GhTpyLSiAPieBJgSwi7RLNXCAG1Dy3G66

If you think they're the same problem, I'm sure there are some (or a lot... or all) people on gox who would gladly swap your Stamp/BTC-E bitcoins with their Gox bitcoins and pay you the difference in cash.

But you're going to miss the joy as it crosses back over into the mid/low 600's in the short term.  Why?  Charts and stuff.

If you don't have thousands upon thousands of coins, keep you arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times and realize you're just along for a ride (and try to enjoy it).

just ate through that wall, next at 630...

one day people are going to realize these "walls" don't mean shit if the big players don't want them to.  They can make the market look however the hell they want and then send it in whatever direction they please.

Someone at bitcoinity having fun with rollercoasters...

Gox up 25% in 1 hour and 36% in 3 hours lol

Worst bull trap ever.  I want my cheap coins again, where the hell are they?

When it gets boring for most people, this is when I find the market most interesting.

The stuff last night and this morning was fun, but it was predictable.  Most people paying attention bought through the 500's and then sold through the 600's/700's this morning (if you're into that kinda quick profit... or else you bought through the 600's and 500's and are holding).

It was a pretty easy turnaround for those interested.  That said, now that the price has come back to earth a bit after the quick jump up to 720ish, this is when things get interesting.  These are the times when imo it becomes difficult to gauge the market and predict which direction it's going to go.  Last night was childs play (in terms of making the smart move).  This is where the men separate themselves from the boys, being able to make the correct play right about now.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure I have any insight lol

Sorry to offend you, I meant in terms of rational thought, it was in fact childs play.  You say so yourself.  The rational decision was 100% to buy.

It may take some decent sized balls to put your money where your mouth is and actually do it, but I was more strictly speaking in terms of predicting the market.  It was easy to predict whereabouts to start buying during the plunge down and that it would slingshot back up (although I'll admit I fully underestimated just how high and started selling sooner than I would have liked, I still moved a decent amount over 700).  Just as it was pretty easy to see it would shift back down to where it is now after it rebounded so quickly.

All those calls were relatively easy imo.  Having the fortitude to stick with them may be a different story, but the calls themselves were practically punching people in the face if they were paying attention.

The "this is where the men separate themselves from the boy" comment was more referring to being able to properly see where the market is likely to go now, which imo is much less clear than the fun exciting movement of the previous 20ish hours.

In terms of gutchecks and being able to put emotion aside, yeah, the fast action certainly will test that.

The price goes as high/low as the most recent buy/sell.

If the highest buy order is for 350 and someone sells their coins at market, it will fill those 350 buy orders.  If there's 1,000 worth of coins on the books at 350, then I can sell 500 and the price will still be 350.

Likewise, if the lowest standing sell order is for 370 and someone wants to buy at market, they will have to jump all the way up to that 370 price.

Essentially, there is a $20 spread between the buy and sell orders, so the price will fluctuate between the two depending on who wants to buy/sell at market value.  100 coins or 0.01 coins, it doesn't matter.  Someone puts in a market sell the price immediately drops to 350.  2 seconds later someone puts in a market buy, the price immediately jumps up to 370.  The amount is irrelevant.

We need a Schoolcoin for school ecosystems, where a students worth is no longer measured by grades, but through the number of coins they have.  Coins can be used to redeem grades as well as other items like extra pudding at lunch.

I can see it now... This will create a thriving school based economy where the smart students could trickle their coins down to the dumb kids for various goods and services.  Giving each member of the school society a valuable role.  The smart kids are encouraged to do good work and the dumb kids benefit by finding what they're valuable at as well.

Naturally, the bullies will eventually realize they can just beat up the smart kids and get them to give up their private keys, thereby giving the bullies access to all the smart kids coins.  That is, until the smart kids begin to pay off other big kids for protection from the bullies.  Meanwhile, there will be a couple super smart geeks who figure out how to game the system and steal the coins of everyone, but when people realize whats happened, those geeks will have to pay off the majority of bullies even more so that they become allies.  

The result will be a few super rich geeks with a thriving class of rich mob like thug bullies who ensure the super rich geeks stay protected and in the shadows (so long as the thugs get their cut).  Meanwhile, the other 99% of students will continue about their days working hard and earning Schoolcoins based on the quality of work they do, none the wiser that the majority of their coins are being funneled to the super smart geeks who know how to game the system.

Eventually though, cracks will start to appear as most students begin to realize that they're only making enough coins to afford C level grades and some measly square lunchroom pizza when they are really a B level student who should be getting quality chicken tenders at lunch.  Slowly, they'll begin to figure out that something is up.  Walking down the halls, they can't help but notice that there are a select few students who no longer eat lunch in the lunch room.  They have a private room to themselves where they get all kinds of different takeout each day.  They also no longer attend class, instead spending all their time working on various projects in secret.  Yet they keep receiving a large amount of Schoolcoins for the classes they no longer attend.

As the pieces begin to fall into place, it dawns on the regular students that they've been gamed by the system and at that point, a revolution is inevitable.  Unfortunately, all this will play out over many many years.  All the while, there will be generations of students who were unable to afford good colleges because they couldn't to save up enough Schoolcoin to pay the entry fee, since cardboard pizza and a few luxuries like 30 minutes of recess a day ate up their entire savings.

Haha, thank you.  I'm here to entertain!

LOL

loop, meet Bradley.  Bradley, meet loop.

Trading disabled on gox?

Stamp buying into the fud

Back down to 505

Gox still relying on blockchain for that temp fix (whatever it was they did)?  Cause blockchain is currently down for maintenance.  Would explain the stoppage on gox.

blockchain.info... not THE blockchain

The dumping is strong on Stamp!

blockchain done w/ maintenance.  Let's see if gox starts trading now...

God I love flash crashes and bounce backs.  Ridiculously easy 5-10% ROI everytime.

lol exactly

That's 1000000% meaningless

agreed, so good

blockchain.info tweet still says, "Joint Statement Regarding the Insolvency of @MtGox"

blockchain.info just removed the word insolvent now too.  Bunch of teases

Not much to say.  If you happen to be paying attention at the right time, you can "feel" them building up.  The fud kicks up, posting picks up, the IRC chat starts getting more and more interesting.  People start posting updates here and on reddit lighting fast, etc.

It's all about paying attention, because you can see the panic building up as someone sets up a mass dump.  The dump comes, thousands of coins hit the market in chunks of hundreds in a matter of 10-30 minutes, with smaller players following along.  Then it quickly reverses direction when people realize they might have acted a little early, and it all gets quickly bought back up to where it was before (or close to it) because there's been no time for the selling pressure to build up behind the crash.

It's very easy to see coming and profit off of, it's just a matter of being around paying attention when it happens and being ready to sit tight for an hour and act quick.  Cause neither the dip or quick rise back up will last very long.

Any long time bears thinking about calling this the floor (or close to it)?

Should have had some fun panic selling by now, but there's been none in the last 30 minutes (in fact, seems like the insider trading 2 hours ago was the biggest rundown we may see).

I want to hear from you bears.  How do you view the situation right now?  Slowly turning positive?

haha wow!

Quoted for posterity lol

relevant... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTev5pSuYLk

Whales usually don't sell into no support cause they'd get very poor value.  Instead, they wait for a big wall.  That's why I always laugh when people are like "oh hey, we have good support here... oh crap, someone just blew through it."

And regular folk moving a coin or two don't matter since they can't make the market move anyway.

You mean the same foundation that had Mark on the board during the ENTIRE debacle?

I'm sorry, but at best they are completely ignorant and neglectful and at worst completely deceitful and untrustworthy.

Latest tweet from TwoBitItidiot... "Thanks, man. I never mince words, I think this is disastrous from a reg standpoint. The hammer will now come down hard."

The conspiracy theorist in me can't help but to think the bitcoin foundation was compliant in all this and intentionally deceived the community.  They have been very pro regulation for a long time, and what better way to ensure the US comes down hard with regulation than making a grand show of what can happen without it.

It's genius I tell you!

And the bitcoin foundation (who have been vocally very pro regulation) involved in all of it...

The perfect recipe for a juicy conspiracy.

Sigh, always with the silliness on Monday morning.  How am I supposed to get any work done while the whales are playing.

I think you're confusing opinions with emotion... I'm quite sure a lot of bears are happy with the rise in price, as a lot of them got in large positions of BTC when it dipped into the 400's.

They're now likely moving out of those positions.  That probably makes them quite happy to make such a nice profit in just under a week.

Ok charts, ya'll are just being silly now.  Stop for a few hours so I can get some work done.

So who wants to put an ETA on when/what price our mystery whale starts selling.

I'd like to give a personal thanks to this mystery whale for stuffing my pockets with hundred dollar bills.

Conspiracy time... Buffet bashed bitcoin this morning and then turned around and bought all the coins.  Genius!

And there it goes.  Silly markets.  So much fun.

until it disappears out of the blue

Does anyone else think this social media discussion before the bitcoin stuff is INCREDIBLY relevant.  Talking about how we use social media for entertainment, but for people in other countries with less stable political situations, social media is revolutionary and disruptive.  Places where government can control and shut down the media, having a decentralized source like twitter is hugely important...

Everything they're saying about the benefits of social media and the importance of it in these countries is exactly why bitcoin is important.

It would have been a fantastic segway.  The parallels are perfect.

Unfortunately they probably don't even realize it.

Meh, this Oliver Luckett dude seems to be pretty smart.  His segment might not have been about bitcoin, but his points about social media were very relevant.  And he noted as much when the bitcoin segment Q and A was going on.  I gotta give him props, he seems to get it and see the big picture.

This.  Cool, but a subscription based pay model?  Yeah, pass

Gut check time... some decent money to be made short term one way or the other.

Question is which direction.

the words "final capitulation" need to be banned on these forums.

As well as "bear trap" and "bull trap" and whatever other nonsense gets thrown around so much by people hat have no idea wtf they're talking about that it loses it all meaning.

It's time for another episode of everyone's favorite game... Test That Wall!

You can't be serious...

You felt like that ridiculous wall was solid and not going to be pulled?

No, that 1,000+ wall was pulled.  It was pulled and then turned into a sell down into the support that formed in behind it.

No one sold through that wall, the wall was removed and turned into the sell.

Look at the candles... The largest of the walls (well over 1,000) was removed.

There were a few other sell also at the $400 mark in the range of a hundreds... those were probably hit as they were someone other than the 1,000+ whale.

You put up a ridiculous buy wall.  Support forms in behind it.  You then remove your buy wall and sell it to that new support you just created.

Anytime there's crazy volatility there's a good chance for quick profit if you have even the slightest idea what you're doing.

I turned over 18+% gains in 12 hours (actually, that's partially a lie. I took some 15+% gains late last night around $410, figuring that was pretty good for 3 hours work).

lolol at the whale that just doubled their wall at 550

Oh really?  Did we even touch that low yesterday?