Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.
In the nearer term, we have the upcoming possibility of the Chinese having to free float the rmb. They've been artificially keeping it down by pegging to the usd, but if they want to be part of the sdr basket, they will have to unpeg. If it becomes a de facto reserve currency, a lot of Chinese hodlers could have a good reason to switch out of bitcoin.
I'm not sure of the timeframe, but I believe they have to decide ahead of the next IMF meeting in October. It will be interesting to see how (or if) it effects bitcoin.
Switzerland's franc jumped by about 30 percent against the euro when the cap of 1.20 francs per euro was stopped. Switzerland is nothing when compared to China's economic muscle. If China gives up it's peg to the USD then there could be a much bigger jump in the RMB than Switzerland's franc had. That would make waves that would reach the Bitcoin price.