Anyone know what's the deal is with Coinbase?  Their price is running about $25 over bitstamp right now, which is by far the furthest I've seen them spread.  Usually they're pegged right within a dollar or two of stamp as that's where they do all their orders from (at least, that was the common assumption).  Very odd that they've been sitting between 695-700 while stamp hovers around 670-675.

Anyone know what's going on there?

Predictions for Thursday Feb/13 at 19:00--19:59 UTC (not earlier, not later):

Huobi:  3970 plus or minus 30 CNY (3940 -- 4000)
Bitstamp:  650 plus or minus 10 USD (640 -- 660)

I used the Chinese Slumber Method described in my previous posts, extrapolating linearly from the two Slumber Points of Feb/10 and feb/12. (The feb/11 point seems to be unreliable as discussed before.)

For the Bitstamp prediction, I assumed a currency conversion factor of 6.12 -- which was valid at Slumber Times up to feb/06, and appears to be valid again since feb/10.

Er.. would anyone care to know how my predictions did today?

I thought so, just had to ask, thank you. 

We need a Schoolcoin for school ecosystems, where a students worth is no longer measured by grades, but through the number of coins they have.  Coins can be used to redeem grades as well as other items like extra pudding at lunch.

I can see it now... This will create a thriving school based economy where the smart students could trickle their coins down to the dumb kids for various goods and services.  Giving each member of the school society a valuable role.  The smart kids are encouraged to do good work and the dumb kids benefit by finding what they're valuable at as well.

Naturally, the bullies will eventually realize they can just beat up the smart kids and get them to give up their private keys, thereby giving the bullies access to all the smart kids coins.  That is, until the smart kids begin to pay off other big kids for protection from the bullies.  Meanwhile, there will be a couple super smart geeks who figure out how to game the system and steal the coins of everyone, but when people realize whats happened, those geeks will have to pay off the majority of bullies even more so that they become allies.  

The result will be a few super rich geeks with a thriving class of rich mob like thug bullies who ensure the super rich geeks stay protected and in the shadows (so long as the thugs get their cut).  Meanwhile, the other 99% of students will continue about their days working hard and earning Schoolcoins based on the quality of work they do, none the wiser that the majority of their coins are being funneled to the super smart geeks who know how to game the system.

Eventually though, cracks will start to appear as most students begin to realize that they're only making enough coins to afford C level grades and some measly square lunchroom pizza when they are really a B level student who should be getting quality chicken tenders at lunch.  Slowly, they'll begin to figure out that something is up.  Walking down the halls, they can't help but notice that there are a select few students who no longer eat lunch in the lunch room.  They have a private room to themselves where they get all kinds of different takeout each day.  They also no longer attend class, instead spending all their time working on various projects in secret.  Yet they keep receiving a large amount of Schoolcoins for the classes they no longer attend.

As the pieces begin to fall into place, it dawns on the regular students that they've been gamed by the system and at that point, a revolution is inevitable.  Unfortunately, all this will play out over many many years.  All the while, there will be generations of students who were unable to afford good colleges because they couldn't to save up enough Schoolcoin to pay the entry fee, since cardboard pizza and a few luxuries like 30 minutes of recess a day ate up their entire savings.

finally movement on bitstamp.

time to close long positions from 530 soon.

In case anyone is interested, I downloaded the PDF of the "Crisis Strategy Draft" and took a look inside.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/209050732/MtGox-Situation-Crisis-Strategy-Draft

The owner of the PDF is listed as Ryan Selkis, so I googled him. Turns out he runs a company that aims to "reduce volatility for consumers while helping hedge funds invest in bitcoin". Way to go with the volatility reduction!

http://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanselkis

coinbase buys and sells are hovering around $492 momentarily (significantly above Stamp)

They aren't short on money, I can tell you that much.  Maybe short on BTC that is "on deck" for instant buys...but they are solvent (for now at least)...

 <Herodes> JLR14: The conversation with Mark is made up, to bring wiews to his (JonWickedFire) forum.

most likely a fake conversation lol

if it corrects like 2011 that is good for Bitcoin fundamentalists, but it may not, depending what happens to the Gox's coins we could be in for a coin shortage, and the treat of impeding catastrophe.

We're going down bitchez

Most bullish technical aspects I have observed:

3-period weekly RSI is at the most oversold level in bitstamp history.  >90% of closing a daily bar higher in the next two weeks.

Retracement of the bounce of low unable to break 38.2% mark.  Give me a third test and I'd lay 3:2 odds that the next break is a post-gox high.  (Actually we have third test on 15 minute bars.  I'll take another 1-hour test though.)

Daily MACD low and crossing over.  I'd say this indicates at least 3:2 odds that we are within 3 days of a higher daily close.

Also, on a 5-minute scale, we're seeing higher highs and higher lows, albeit in a very tight range.  No mixture estimate on this one as it is too weak to matter.

Of the three, I'd weight the Fib the most highly in a mixture model, followed by RSI, then MACD.

Anybody got some bearish indicators to mix in?

WOW...  You seem to be onto something Walsoraj.....  that is really really funny to NOT hear from Satoshi in that particular thread for 5 years ... and then all of a sudden for some reason Satoshi Nakamoto, if that is really Satoshi, feels such a need to comment within that particular dormant thread and to say that he is NOT Dorian... ... I thought that we had NOT heard from Satoshi since about mid-2011 or so... which would then cause me to begin to believe that maybe Satoshi is Dorian.. b/c why would the real Satoshi care enough to reply in a dormant thread concerning whatever is going on with Dorian...   In this regard, the real Satoshi should NOT give a flying fuck about whatever is going on with Dorian or that Dorian is being confused for Satoshi.. unless Dorian is the real Satoshi...

China open is a bit red

What will happen to btc once ltc explodes?

If lots of idiots like me bought at the top of the last ATH, it probably won't go much higher than that.
I'm saying that because I will be selling as soon as I can make a profit and believe I won't be the only one to do so.
That's of course my (very) short term position. I'll be ready to buy back in the next dip.

wtf is going on, haha

looks like someone sold while he wanted to buy, then rebought

Story not on the interwebs yet (not much of a story really anyway).  Heard the ATM wasn't easy to use.  It wasn't in a high traffic area anyway.  Not a big deal IMO, just thought I'd share some news.

Carry on...

Don't drunk Indians just trade firewater and fry bread for everything? Why would they need a Bitcoin ATM anyway?

Does this guy look like he needs a Bitcoin ATM?

sleep?

same pattern last time. followed by a huge dump

Panic buying?

Like I said, Stamp refuses to follow Huobi in the up direction, but seems to have no problem following them down.  

Fkn bullshit market.  I'm sure Stamp will be right back to $599.999999 soon.

Which is more pathetic:

1) People conducting their individual risk management/business and trading accordingly on the open market
2) People getting mad at 1) when they don't like what they are doing, fantasizing allegations and accusations

?

It depends if you actually wanted to win the auction. If I wanted to win Id put my bid somewhere between $600 and $630.

uhoh

I´m always honest when i post bullish stuff. I expect a wave 5 bringin us to near 800$ within the next 2 weeks.


( TO THE MOON)

 

1 is 540$ on April 16th
3 is 683$ on June 3d
4 is around 550$ were we have been in the last time.
5 might be 750-800$ in the next weeks.

Correct. It also does not mean Bitcoin exclusively (some will be in Litecoin, but likely negligible). But they are usually so expensive to maintain that longer term they can pretty much be equated. And short term, we can assume that the vast majority is tied up in Bitcoin longs.

Are you guys implying that people are taking out loans and not using them for BTC longs, but instead just holding them? Why? To remove demand?

To make things even more complex, anything you put in your trading wallet can be used to borrow against at BFX, weather is it USD, BTC, or LTC.  For example, you could have LTC in your trading wallet and borrow the USD value of that LTC to go long on BTC.

That doesn't follow, does it? There could've been selling pressure absorbing the demand. In other words: maybe the market would've dropped without the longs being opened. In fact it makes sense people would open longs even when the market is falling.

You would as you never provide TA.

Anyway, thats probably it for the rally today. Now we will stagnate here until the coins are sold tomorrow.

Then UP!

Happy trading.

Something tells me "real" traders would laugh at that gigantic so-called cup n handle formation

Perhaps. I hav never been able to see that pink unicorn either.

Or perhaps I just have a rather crooked eye:

Is that what's happening here?

Lol, forgive me for misspelling the name of a boy so central to your interests.  No offense meant, sweetie.
So, what's your favorite song?

Don't Tase me bro, your taking it all too serious?  I still don't know what to do with your Bieber?

Your an uneducated pussy.

*You're

Precious

Lolno, you're not shorting.

You'd be joyous like me--not sperging around like every other bagholder.