All posts made by _biO_ in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 9100729 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
swimming pool formation at 5min chart! Bullish!
haha. yes, a "whale bath" formation...
Please shop a whale into that pic
2.
Post 9380031 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
I used to think that BTC will experience at least one more bubble before it's final demise, but it doesn't look like it anymore.
I think that the fall of bitcoin will be caused mainly by one of it's biggest flaws - inefficient new coin creation. The bitcoin network has become too expensive to run, and it needs more and more new money to enter, just to sustain it's value. If not enough new money will enter, then mining will start to eat the dollar value of bitcoin. Some miners are claiming that they will temporary cover the losses and wait for better times to sell. Some of them outright lie to support the positive sentiment and some of them actually can cover their losses for a limited time. This also means that their coins will be accumulating together with their losses. This is only building up to an avalanche where the miners can't cover their losses anymore and they have to sell their coins to whatever the price that they can get. When this happens, then the amount of coins that will be thrown at the market will be large enough to destroy any trust that bitcoin still had left.
Cryptocurrencies will live on, but new and better models will take over that have solved the important problems that bitcoin has.
replace bitcoin with government and miners with banks and you'll be spot on.
I don't care much about anti-government agendas and other expressions of teenage rebellion. I care about finding a practical financial tool, that can be used to develop both the finance and the economy. Bitcoin was the first to show that open-sourced monetary systems can be done, and I am thankful for that. But sadly, bitcoin the currency just isn't advanced enough to be used as a practical tool. The blockchain technology can be used as a practical tool to implement into new and better currencies, and the idea of bitcoin can be used as an source of inspiration for new cryptographic innovations.
Bitcoin the currency itself, is just a slot machine, that is shrouded with virtuous looking illusions. People with gambling problems can create a narrative to their spouses, that they are in fact "investors in an highly innovative technological project". That's the intriguing narrative that gets the permission to use the family's life savings on this "new and world changing project". The sad thing is, that if they can't see how it's really just a slot machine, then they can't also see that the machine is rigged to create profit for the house - the biggest holders of coin, and the people who run the unregulated exchanges. They have the power to raise or lower the price as they see fit, while having private information about their customers trading methods and habits.
A practical currency should be unattractive for speculative play, so gamblers who cause instability would stay away. A practical currency should be attractive to merchants, and without the need of middlemen like BitPay who take profit for offering stability. The technology can be used to make money efficient and cheap (the cost of maintaining the monetary system). Bitcoin the currency is far from realizing the potential, and as long as the core devs aren't considering changing PoW mining and fixed coin supply, then I just can't see a way for that to change.
So you're in the "blockchain tech is great, but bitcoin is useless" camp?
3.
Post 9387130 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
I am telling you sub $330 BTC will never happen again. If it does I will never post in this thread again. Huge pumps are incoming in the next few mins / hours.
Well well well, seems like you can still post on this thread.
I had to edit this reply before sending because I had some text waiting for days with waving you goodbye and wishing you all the best
hehehehehe
Surely, it was a close one. We are NOT out of the woods, yet, but at least there is a little bit of a reprieve going on.
One might even say the next few hours are critical!
4.
Post 9446331 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
Yup, it's an asymmetric bet I'm willing to take.
5.
Post 9454921 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
Arguments on the network effect only work to a certain degree. An analogy would be to claim that something like Facebook or Google will be the sole existing service simply because it has the biggest network.
Alt coins need to offer something pretty good to overcome the network effect of bitcoin. So far, they don't. And with sidechains on the horizon, it's possible "real" altcoins never will.
6.
Post 9455673 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
Arguments on the network effect only work to a certain degree. An analogy would be to claim that something like Facebook or Google will be the sole existing service simply because it has the biggest network.
Alt coins need to offer something pretty good to overcome the network effect of bitcoin. So far, they don't. And with sidechains on the horizon, it's possible "real" altcoins never will.
The irony is that they don't. Or would you honestly claim that for Litecoin there is any real improvement.
All it takes is regional acceptance on a larger level to make a coin relevant for people in that area.
We can argue all we want about if, in the long term, these alts have merit but the reality is that they exist and some have quite respectable market caps for offering very little innovation.
Litecoin offers a few small things: It's a bitcoin alternative (bitcoin obviously can't offer that), faster confirmations, more decentralized mining (at least at the moment) and probably some more things I don't know about. But that's simply not enough to dethrone bitcoin and never will be.
Alts will have merit, most definitely. But they will be built as a sidechain pegged to bitcoin.
7.
Post 9466773 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
So don't buy shit online. Go to the mall like normal people.
e-commerce is just a fad.
8.
Post 9519378 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
Will we break 500 USD today?
9.
Post 9520665 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
Some dude that I know has insider info that some good big news is gonna be released soon.
Don't trade on that, just ignore it, just be aware that something big might come out soon
DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO
10.
Post 9520796 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
No
11.
Post 9520889 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
according to my analysis this is going to be a wild ride
12.
Post 9530823 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Guys idk if u consider this spam
YES.
13.
Post 9530860 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Why you think it should be perfect for people from this topic?
BECAUSE PRIMEDICE!!! CLICK HERE!!
14.
Post 9532700 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
dump to sub 2400 on huobi incoming.
CAN I TRUST YOU?
15.
Post 9672304 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
16.
Post 10234971 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
hai guise... should i buy the bitcoin?
17.
Post 11308706 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
Miners and full nodes owners decide whether to go 20M or not. Devs (mostly only bug fixing) has no more power than normal users.
Of course they have "more power" in the sense that they have a bigger influence on public opinion.
18.
Post 11309787 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
so what happens if you have a keylogger on your computer?
Create encrypted private key on air-gapped machine, copy via USB (or type manually).
19.
Post 11309941 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
1) Usb keys are known to be capable of having viruses on them even if they are not connected to the internet.
As far as I understand the infamous Stuxnet virus operated like that.
2) seems like a massive hassle to type things manually from an air-gapped machine.
3) In my opinion having such concerns kind of ruins the point of purchasing a special BTC hardware wallet. If you need the wallet and additionally need an air gapped machine you may as well just purchase a different hardware wallet that is less of a hassle eg. a trezor or a Case hardware wallet etc
I guess it may have the same result but I would pay more to have less steps to perform. a simple solution but a lighter wallet XD
1) if you need to be that sure, then don't use USB
2) you can't be bothered to type 58 characters manually once for a longterm cold storage solution with (almost) 100% security?
3) trezor or case are something completely different and have other attack vectors
20.
Post 11310070 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
trezor or case have other attack vectors
Oh, what are their weaknesses? I was not aware that a trezor had any ?
I believe people were able to extract private keys by measuring electric noise or something, that's being created by the processor while processing the keys. It really is quite a remarkable method, I don't know how easy it is to apply it, though!
or the device can simply be tempered with during delivery or afterwards (in a way that was not foreseen by satoshilabs).
or steal the thing, replace it with a fake to get the PIN and voilá
21.
Post 11314394 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
do you guys think $1k are still possible this year?
its practically guaranteed now!
22.
Post 11453326 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
If you ask me, whether it pumps first or not, it's gonna eventually go to double digits, where we'll see if this market is actually bound to reverse and see another bull market or slowly fade into obscurity.
This suggest that you see bitcoin only as some candlestick chart and value it based on "technical analysis" of past market performance.
I guess a lot of people do that. Probably the only reason the price is as low as it is.
23.
Post 12605292 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
This wall observer action is riveting. Six ChartBuddys in a row is so exciting.
ripe for disruption
24.
Post 12616692 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Hello.
25.
Post 12616745 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Happening status: its
Happening status:
it's
26.
Post 12617840 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Will we see an article in
Ledger revealing your findings any time soon?
I do have a half-written tech report detailing how a cartel of miners could force a change in the rules; but that has become common (if still denied) knowledge by now, so it would probably be rejected for that (if not for ideologocal reasons).
So let's say a majority of miners change the rules in a way that the rest of the bitcoin community does not agree with, then what?
What prevents the core developers from just changing the hash function, rendering all mining hardware useless and let the whole mining business start from scratch? Yeah it would be pretty messy, but the mere existence of that option keeps the miners in check.
27.
Post 12619063 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
I do have a half-written tech report detailing how a cartel of miners could force a change in the rules; but that has become common (if still denied) knowledge by now, so it would probably be rejected for that (if not for ideologocal reasons).
So let's say a majority of miners change the rules in a way that the rest of the bitcoin community does not agree with, then what?
What prevents the core developers from just changing the hash function, rendering all mining hardware useless and let the whole mining business start from scratch? Yeah it would be pretty messy, but the mere existence of that option keeps the miners in check.
That is the conventional argument that is used to dismiss that problem. It is like the Captain "defeating" a sailor''s mutiny by taking off in a small lifeboat and declaring it to be "the real ship"...
The Core developers would have to convince all bitcoin users to get into that small boat with them and discard the coins that they have on the carte's branch of the chain. Good luck on that...
Convincing should be pretty easy if the rule change goes against the interest of the majority of the bitcoin community. And if it doesn't we don't have a problem in the first place.
Why should the miners take such a huge gamble. What kind of rule change would justify taking such a risk?
28.
Post 12620100 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Convincing should be pretty easy if the rule change goes against the interest of the majority of the bitcoin community. And if it doesn't we don't have a problem in the first place.
Why should the miners take such a huge gamble. What kind of rule change would justify taking such a risk?
For definiteness, consider postponing the next halving by 2 years, but then reducing the halving interval to 2 years instead of 4, so that the total issuance woudl still be ~21 M BTC.
That change would means something like 150 million USD of extra revenue over 2 years to a majority mining cartel. (Too lazt to check the number now, but it is that order of magnitude.) That obviously could make the difference beween getting rich or going bankrupt,
So, the motivation for the miners would be very strong. All other players would be against that change in principle, because the would see little gain (or some loss) for them at various time scales, and "the protocol is sacred". But, if the change were to happen, they would not be directly harmed, and could live with it.
Would the cartel be able to impose that change on the rest of the community? I believe that it would. The "self-interest" argument works better the other way: why would the "economic majority" crash the price and lose all their investment, by trying to fight the cartel? In order to protect their investment, most holders and companies would pretend to approve the change, and would tell everybody that it was "good for bitcoin"...
They would of course fail horribly trying to do something like that. Yes, all other players would most definitely be against it because there's everything at risk for them if an attack like this would be tolerated. Everyone would have to expect the same thing happening again after those two years. "Hey let us do our thing another year, the year after that we halve, promise!" "Wait no, let's wait some more and do a quartering next time!"
"They could live with it"? Seriously? This is fantasy.
29.
Post 12763120 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):
Posting guild lines:
Please lets keep this thread clean. ( I will be removing any off topic posts )
30.
Post 12821532 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
pumping bitcoin for marshal's auction would be a typical obama strategy..... huge money grab...
(blahblahblahblah...)
Are you drunk or stupid or both?
31.
Post 12868447 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
where is the thread that shows the trend plotted against a logarithmic growth?
This one?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.msg9293342#msg9293342
32.
Post 12868460 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
There's no way we're gonna keep going, is it?
this is not being driven by any real news
Uhmmm....
33.
Post 12868468 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
Consolidation above $380 would be incredible
If the price lingers above 380 then we are off to the races.
As always with bitcoin my only regret is not buying more when i had the chance
consolidating on 380 means it is going to take a run at 400 in the near future ...
An hour or so?
34.
Post 12877720 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
$444.44 on stamp... teehee
35.
Post 12877887 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Lol that poor try of dumping. Some bears love to lose money.
That's why they're bears. Losing money is their raison d'etre.
nobody ever got broke taking profits...
Especially when you had a 60%+ profit run without margin in a very short time frame.....
It is stupid to not take profits. We have 90%+ Long... That's not a situation where markets stay stable over time.. But this forum is the wrong place for a rational discussion.
It's not stupid, there are just different perspectives on this topic. Some see it as a thing you can trade online and make money with doing it, some see it as a horribly undervalued asset / long term investment.
36.
Post 12891778 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
The new bitcoin buyers are irrational gamblers that will bail out at any sign of weakness.
Serious investors will reconsider this investment proposition.
Sorry to break the bullishness guys!
Buying and selling these swings is the rational thing to do. Just holding and thinking that it's for some greater good is just a case of bad timing mixed with delusions.
The difference is: In the end you want to hold fiat, while other people want to hold bitcoin then. Your implied assumption is that bitcoin fails eventually, while others see it succeed big time.
If you're in the first group, you statements make somewhat sense. If you are in the latter group, you're better off just acquiring a decent stash of bitcoins.
37.
Post 12891800 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Serious investors will reconsider this investment proposition.
Sorry to break the bullishness guys!
It's possible, but don't you think that the hope of another 2013 will keep it going? Not to mention the charts aren't actually showing anything catastrophic at this point.
This is the "april 2013 bubble" in preperation for the real thing in a few months, proving that the coming halvening has not been priced in in any meaningful fashion.
38.
Post 12891940 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
The difference is: In the end you want to hold fiat, while other people want to hold bitcoin then. Your implied assumtion is that bitcoin fails eventually, while others see it succeed big time.
If you're in the first group, you statements make sense. If you are in the latter group, you're better off just acquiring a decent stash of bitcoins.
If the people, who just want to hold bitcoin, would have more skills then grannies playing bingo, then they would eventually hold on to more bitcoins. It's ok if they aren't equipped for the trading game, just it would be great if they'd stop trying to make it sound like doing something noble. Nobody's perfect, just deal with it.
Trading bitcoin is gambling, if you think you have skill, you probably just had a lot of luck.
39.
Post 12893042 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
but the price will impact the auction! :O
40.
Post 12893812 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
China triple bottom is in. I don't think you're getting coins cheaper than this.
This is definitely true!** until the price drops further nontheless
41.
Post 12902914 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Oh my god, you are an idiot...What the hell is happening these days, so many fuds and stupid posts lately from trolls...Go back to your mother's basements think about how you missed the early btc purchase...butthurted fucks
You are upset, because you aren't winning as you hoped. I am happy because I am winning as I planned. It's just that simple.
You're short sighted. It's just that simple. I bet you would have eaten that marshmallow instantly.
42.
Post 12903206 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Oh my god, you are an idiot...What the hell is happening these days, so many fuds and stupid posts lately from trolls...Go back to your mother's basements think about how you missed the early btc purchase...butthurted fucks
You are upset, because you aren't winning as you hoped. I am happy because I am winning as I planned. It's just that simple.
You're short sighted. It's just that simple. I bet you would have eaten that marshmallow instantly.
I think that I'm just disillusioned from thinking that you can be farsighted when speculating crypto. Even those who have control over the markets don't know the longterm outcome of things in this field.
This will serve me fine, because I'll be jumping on and off this train according to the characteristics of the present time. I can practice control over the fate of my wealth, while the holders have to sit tight and are only left with blind hope.
Well, good luck to you! The only way you can win by playing like this is by luck, so you surely need it
You are implying bitcoin is nothing more than another tradeable thingamabob. Nothing more than its price. But it's much more than that. That's what some people are betting on, and yes, that's a gamble as well. But the odds are good and the upside is ridiculously good.
But you take one gamble after another, thinking you can see through and play the market. Because you're just that skilled. That strikes me as far more delusional than any hodling bitcoin fanatic.
43.
Post 13259964 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
The pump group is sick about getting price up. We crossed 450 USD and 3000 CNY. No one wants to buy. Still. Everyone is waiting to dump some coins at a higher price.
I don't really give a crap about someone's money but the manupulators need to stop this before it's too late. This pump is doomed.
The other way is there's a scam behind some exchange (most likely a Chinese). This will be bad for Bitcoin. Expect a storm...
Did it ever occur to you that bitcoin may just be worth a lot more than it's current price?
44.
Post 15262262 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
I've been trying to compare 2014-2016 to 2011-2013 under the assumption that it's time to break ATH now but it doesn't make any sense and the structure/symmetry just isn't the same (not to mention the different timescales). In the 2011 chart you can see that bottom being reached to the left only 33% of the way through the chart. However in the 2015 chart you see bottom not being reached until 50% of the way through the chart and dragging on all the way through 75% of the way through the chart at roughly the same level. The bottoming out was much weaker and the jump to now supposedly try to challenge ATH is extremely sudden. Therefore, odds are most likely that we need another midterm consolidation of 6 months of to make an even chart. I see the following possibilities:
1. 25%: This is a trap and a sort of double top before another serious bear market.
2. 50%: There is going to be a 6 month consolidation phase before ATH is broken.
3. 25%: ATH is broken now.
100%: this analysis is bullshit
45.
Post 17275513 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
My biggest buy was @ $800 (01/2014). Kept buying ever since. Never considered to sell after understanding how it works.
46.
Post 18865479 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
Seems stupid saying that because I'm pretty sure we'll see $5000 in a couple of years.
Thoughts?
You're right.
One year ago the price went from $460 to $780 relatively quickly, then "crashed" to $600. I bet people who bought at $780 weren't all that happy at the time. Ask them now.
47.
Post 23912160 (copy this link) (by _biO_) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.25h):
Will $10,000 be the point where everyone switches from BTC to mBTC?
That will make it look more affordable to first-time buyers lol
European here, so metric is great. But IMHO, "mBTC" is too easily confused with "BTC" by Joe Schmoe and expecting the logical consequence of "µBTC" to be a thing at any point is delusional.
If anything, we should switch to "bits". Coinbase is doing it already, AFAIK.
