All posts made by travwill in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 15654550 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Man, so the US markets are breaking a new high every day for the last 8 days. I see the equities doing so strong that BTC isn't as attractive, that can't last and seems like bubble territory in the stock market right now.
This combined with the Japanese probably announcing a 20 trillion Yen stimulus, like 180 Billion USD I think, should really send BTC at least somewhat hire for those not wanting to hold on to the surely devalued Yen.
2.
Post 15666108 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
The next President, Trump, is about to speak. Bitcoin will explode upward during/after his speech! ;-)
3.
Post 18055326 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.04h):
It's going to run up this weekend likely further by those with available funds buying now before newbies waiting on bank funds to process and arrive Mon/Tue/Wed can buy.
4.
Post 18128471 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
I would have expected a leak by now, sheesh. The SEC can't be that good, it is part of the US government!
5.
Post 18135395 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
wow, that must have been the biggest 1 minute swing we've ever had. fat finger or data error it seems but big amounts like that show the lack of overall BTC liquidity and scarcity.
a preview to how the price will severely drop or amazingly move up here in near hours...
6.
Post 18139008 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Disagree, likely today end of day still.
A little focus group, aka "Evidence Meeting" held today is not going to have all the SEC employees and execs at it. The SEC is a huge office/department with over 4000 employees.
The press release was well completed days ago and checked and rechecked and approved so it is just a matter of timing the release to be as usual.
7.
Post 18139851 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
CNBC just spent another couple minutes on Bitcoin, expecting decision anytime. Seemed positive overall, noticing the 25% run up this year on expectations that it will approve - but couldn't indicate either direction...
They will surely cover pretty quick as well...
8.
Post 18140092 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Site is updated, denied.
CNBC just covered the drop to $1000, but its going lower.
Said bad news for all 3 ETFs.
Maybe late this year or next year. 2018 may be the Bitcoin year now, ug!
9.
Post 18140184 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Interesting read of the disapproval reasons.
They actually quoted somewhat professor bitkorn's comment he sent in about a small group hoarding most bitcoins. They really focused on the manipulation of exchanges, primarily in China and non-USA locations. Stated Bitcoin is still in its very early stages of development (really).
Doing all of this to protect us.
Grrrr....
10.
Post 18140523 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Seems the bottom is over $1000, around $1050 at this time. The Chinese exchanges have also tanked in tandem so they are inline with the US losses already - but some could further sell when they wake up in person. Likely hit another $100-200 lower max.
11.
Post 18140951 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
https://coin-etf.comhehehe, will be interesting to see what happens to the ETF page now with all its assumptions of being listed on BATS, it's supporting/backing companies, etc. Still static now.
12.
Post 18141161 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Is it time to start obsessing about the halving in 3 years again now? To soon? ;-)
13.
Post 18141895 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
950 by midnight...
Bet 100k sat for funzies?
i would but i wouldn't want you to have to pay another 100K sat TX fee to make good on your bet
10k sat will still go but take a day or 2 right?
Polo is still only 10k fee anyway and with their bundled TX would prolly be decent priority..
ok but i'd bet on <975 by monday 00:00
Nice if it gets down that low again, I moved some cash to GDAX to be ready to pick some coins up again - always miss but ready this time if so...
14.
Post 18144468 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
this is way overbought dont you think.
i mean wtf, tomorrow 1200 as if nothing happened?
really?
i dunno, there is a lot of GLOBAL demand for Bitcoin, USA, Japan, China, India, etc. And, even though the ETF rule did not get approved to list on BATS, it really exposed Bitcoin to a lot more people even. Many realize that it will in time probably happen so are buying in as well or buying directly now beforehand and plan on holding say a year so they could sell in the future even with just long-term gains tax versus short, etc.
Seems a little high but I think we'll be back over 1200 soon, 1250 again, and keep an upward motion. I mean, it has been going up if you zoom out for years with dips here and there, but overall up up up!
15.
Post 18227002 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
I think no..
If it does fork and their is little hash on a fork, the difficulty will still stay sky high, so blocks will just be extremely slow..
Maybe you can cpu mine a fork after difficulty retargets, but if hash is low enough for you to mine with a cpu, then it pretty much won't be worth anything..
If I understand correctly, which is 50/50 chance..
Wait a moment. If it forks, it means BU miners have a little more than 50% of the hashing power. Therefore BTC will remain with a little less than 50% and it will retarget the difficulty in a little more than a month instead of two weeks. It's not that bad!
Depends on when the fork occurs, and how much hash is left on each chain. I'm not sure if there is a default time built in but difficultly retargets every 2016 blocks. If hashpower drops dramatically all of the sudden on a particular fork/chain, then it will take a longer time to find blocks for sure - 15/20/1hour+, so it could take many many weeks to get things back to normal beyond the usual 2 weeks.
16.
Post 18243842 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
we'll be back over 1000$ in no time.
Yep! 1k incoming,,,, maybe people are giving up the debate or just willing to get back to normal and let the chips fall where they may with BU... who knows lol
Nah, I'd assume we are the standard rolling wave down still, each time lower.
17.
Post 18250697 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
So is Bu going to fork? Or has the alt coin designation by exchanges stopped further if any
more share. I've no clue, just wondering if after this "wiggling about in angst" if we are
just back to 2 more years of 1mb blocks and status quo "stagnation?
Seems that both BU is stuck with too low adoption to occur. Also Segwit is stuck with too low adoption to occur (by miners at least).
(stuck around 65% core blocks mined and 35% BU blocks mined)
Thus, neither will occur until one gives up or there is compromise. That is creating part of the confusion that will continue to exist - but hopefully the FUD around BU forking will dissapaint some.
18.
Post 18253920 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
If there had been a HF three years ago from 1MB to 2MB, we'd already be hitting the 2MB limit and BU supporters would be screaming that we need to immediately HF again to 4MB. And so on, and so on.
They act like that wouldn't be true, but we all know it would.
So apparently for them, every time the block size limit is reached, the solution is simply another 2MB increase. On and on, until mining centralization by like one person with a total hardware & hashpower monopoly is complete.
In reply to this argument.
Let's imagine we had hard forked to 2mb and the limit was reached.
The Bitcoin price would be between 2-3k PER COIN right now. The Market cap would be somewhere around 40 BILLION.
Ethererum, Dash and Monero would be WAY down, they definitely wouldn't be hitting their highs right now.
We'd have 2x the amount of transaction throughput which means there would be far less mempool backlogs, less network congestion and lower fees, which would overall create a MUCH better user experience.
In other words, it's a GOOD problem to have.
But you crybaby pussies, who apparently think 2017 tech can't handle >1mb, have forced the rise of altcoins, and have irreparably damaged Bitcoin's % of marketshare, and now markets are switching over to ethereum / dash / monero.
It's EFFING RIDICULOUS. These are UTTER FAILURES from a business perspective. It is also an utter failure from the perspective of User Experience. This is why one can only conclude that Bitcoin Core has failed completely in leadership, tactics, and effectiveness, they don't even seem to care about the user experience. All in the name of creating a "fee market" which is not yet needed, and won't be needed for a few more decades down the line.
BU at this point is the only thing that can really save bitcoin.
Fork it already! The time has come.
It is idiotic to implement a solution, especially on that requires a hard fork, if it only solves your probably temporarily. Horrible IT practices to keep patching code and no matter how large you make the block sizes, they will in time fill up or require prioritization by miners.
IMHO it means much more to optimize Bitcoin with Segwit, take advantage of that "larger block" size it allows with more transactions, and then allow for off chain solutions to blossom that require Segwit. Bitcoin can remain the power settlement system that it will only ever be. Nothing more.
Thinking bitcoin will someday be some millions of transactions per second system is far fetched dreaming so make it all it can be and as optimized as possible, not even more centralized, less secure, and temporarily patched.
19.
Post 18276637 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
Almost 1100$.
Yes interesting that we are running up.
Enough technical and BTU talk, let's refocus this thread on price speculation. Take the other talk to other technical forums!
20.
Post 18395775 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
The reason Litecoin went up because they will likely start trading on Coinbase soon.
The LTC price has been about $4 for about 4 years now with only minor fluctuations now and then. They are probably more stable compared to the dollar than most currencies in the world yet the naysayers would probably make up some other excuse as to why nobody should use it (like how people say Bitcoin can never be used because the price fluctuates too much...yet bitcoin is used much more than litecoin).
*disclaimer: I may or may not have 1k litecoins on a computer somewhere
I sold a lot of LTC 3 years ago around $12, so it is still way down. It was much higher than that even before.
21.
Post 18404843 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
Do we expect to start seeing more buying pressure or demand from Japan, what the 2nd/3rd largest market, officially recognizing Bitcoin as a regulated payment method? This seems very positive overall since it is such a large Bitcoin supporting market...
http://www.coindesk.com/japan-bitcoin-law-effect-tomorrow/
22.
Post 18407541 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
Where can i see a legit news source about the Bitcoin Japan news ? i only see fishy bitcoin news pages.
Could be a april fool joke.
Coindesk has a story on it
23.
Post 18446768 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
... and here is the drop again. always drops so much faster than it rises
24.
Post 18673055 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
bitfinex has reached nearly its all time high, while bitstamp is behind almost 80 dollars.
what is wrong with stamp?
Bitfinex is shooting up for whats seems like a bad reason. The deposit stops. Has people selling and moving coins out. Their cold wallet is apparently down to 70K or so from 140k+ coins here in no time. If this occurs they will likely "implode" when selling is done and price will drop down way lower to where other exchanges are...
25.
Post 18701013 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
am i the only one who thinks we will see a dump to 1k area?
Maybe, not a huge deal I'd say since we were at $1K March 26th, February 15th, February 1st, January 1st-4th, and before that at times...
26.
Post 19133474 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
We should see a price surge/pop if a SegWit compromise is confirmed and announced tomorrow (Monday) globally by the involved parties - that can make it happen at least.
27.
Post 19142530 (copy this link) (by travwill) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
Everyone is talking about correction. Yeah there is going to be one, no doubt about it.
But whatever you feel like it's not going back to 1500$. So is it really worth to risk everything by trying to "see" a correction right now? :p
Just take a cocktail and ejoy the cool train to 4k$
It does seem to be correcting in small quantities as it heads up as well. This is definitely a rolling increase upwards versus a straight shot which seems healthier overall. up/down/up/down/up, but overall up.