First post @WO? Nice one “welcome”

......
Let us follow that road

Bears are so fucked once we finally break 4200. You had a nice 2018, BTCut its our time now.

102 days into the new BTCaby BTCull Market and all is well. 

Let see what happens but it could be very possible

Dammit gain 7 merit in 1hour and 14 minutes so you can join the game
You seem to be a good asset/future member to the WO

i don't have much left, let see if there are some others

*maybe already put your price and thought or TA why that price here.....

you can write some stuff and see how you got tagged....

Haha lol send a merit (last one for sending to heater)

Was meant for one of best GIF usages i have seen

Sorry LFC keep it mental merited sorry bro

(Also i don’t mind to send heater, i read BULL in the post, so the merit is @its place as well)

hence the lucrative cross-crypto ladder trade

Been thinking:

I have been trying to crunch historical prices of late to see if I can spot patterns between data sets from 2015 and 2019. Patterns that might allow me some kind of edge in future price prediction. And not just so I can win one of MicG's games

Obviously I've been trying this because it's apparent that there are established cycles and even uncannily close ratios that appear in Bitcoin related to halvings, absolute bottoms and ATHs.

Many have predicted this cycle will take longer than previously, saying that cycles appear to be getting more drawn out.

However - there is a simple factor at work here which I think means this is not the case, which is that once something is reasonably predictable then you can reasonably anticipate it. For instance, it's not stupid to postulate that it's usually cold in January in the Northern hemisphere, so you pack warm and waterproof items of clothing if you intend to be there and spend time outside. You cannot predict the precise temperature on a given day - but you know it's a safe bet in January it's going to be cold.

What the hell has the weather got to do with Bitcoin?  Well, the more confirmation that the cycle is looking like it's heading for a repeat akin to the past (as sure as the seasons inevitably change) it follows that more people will feel confident in front-running it.  Logically, if it has bottomed and is now almost definitely going up rather than down, then (equally logically) it's batshit crazy not to buy before it gets more expensive.  Especially as the pesky damn digital things are going to be more difficult to acquire, since the supply is decreasing.  OTC is not necessarily going to be so easy, either - and some miners may perhaps delay selling quite so quickly.  The feedback loop will be powerful with so much media interest and the institutional money around, too.

Now - bear with me? Let me spool back to the post-Gox era and the 'bubble/bust' before the 17/18 one we have just come through.

In January 2015 I did buy at the bottom, but not because I had any god-like foresight. Not at all.

Frankly, I didn't know if Bitcoin would ever come back (did anyone for sure?) However, I was underwater with my investment, so the only thing to do was to buy more to average my cost down and make a breakeven more likely in future.  I wasn't certain, I just felt I had to either sell, or double down, and I didn't want to quit.  So, I steeled myself, trusted my instinct and bought a load more.  With 20/20 hindsight it was probably the best financial decision I ever made, but if you'd said to me then that the bitcoins I had just bought for sub 200 bucks would be worth nearly $20K less than three years later - I would probably have thought you were crazy. Back then this thread had tumbleweed rolling through and sometimes not one post (apart from chart buddy) for hours.

What I am driving at is that today it's just not the same as back then.  Now, we have had bubbles and crashes that look like fractals with some trend regularity being apparent and yes, looking predictable. Now, no one has any illusions that BTC could not easily hit 20K again.  Now, any doubts about increasingly higher prices returning once the bottom is 'obviously' in the rear view mirror will disappear pretty fast.

So, the more the price 'recovers' the more asymmetrical a bet on Bitcoin looks.  5K? A risk? What fucking risk!

Back to my workings on that pattern overlay I mentioned.  Well right now the bunch of models I set up are looking out of sync. Now I may be VERY wrong of course and it's not based on nearly enough data, but it looks to me like it's going faster than it should be.

Certainly some people, including me in my small way, have been steadily accumulating.  Sooner or later of course, no matter what - it had to start to increasingly affect price.  And then, well...  it doesn't take a genius to see that buying now what is already rising again and highly likely to be at a lot higher price level before too long, just makes sense. The feedback loop will be way more powerful. Bitcoin has blown everyone away more than once, fewer and fewer people will be prepared to bet against it anymore. Now, it's got 'previous form'.

And for anyone who has a lot already - it's looking foolish to risk trying price suppression in order to accumulate anymore - not when tens of millions of $ can flip the price up 20% or more in the wee small hours of the morning.

Maybe there isn't so much time left to accumulate at these levels after all?

Also, here's a thing: what if the very supposed 'predictability' of Bitcoin will mean it can't be this time? In a sort of 'Heisenburg's uncertainty principle' way, the very act of having measured it, makes the measurement invalid - as the market is expecting it.

Forgive the long ramble - I am just feeling things are different and any assumptions we have of what 'the cycle' should do and how long it should take are a tad out of date. And I am sure I can't be the only soul on this planet thinking along these lines.

So: what if the common assumptions are indeed totally out of date and it starts running away far earlier than expected? 

Well, I just hope you've already packed your bags for the trip and they are as full as possible.  Don't worry, though - I have a feeling it won't be too cold where we are headed.

In fact, it's probably a good idea to bring your shades.



NB: I sometimes have flights of fancy that are utterly risible, I just wanted to float this for fun. After all, the one thing you can rely on with honey badger - is that it doesn't give a fuck about what you are expecting it to do, right?
DYOR.

Yeah, I'm seeing that.

I predict 6.3k in one week. This would be the last resistance, like a rocket leaving the hearth gravity, headed for the moon.

picture

This is a good website to watch bitstamp walls:

https://www.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/

Regarding Gox coins.  Soon. ^tm  In about two weeks. ^tm

Bullish as fuck if this weekly candle closes at 8k

Do you think?
I’d rather we had a slow, steadier rise than last time, at least until we reach the halving.

I’m not in the mood for an unsustainable, parabolic rise now if we’re just going to get a major correction again.

I’ve tried to meticulously plan what I’m going to do this time but I’m not really prepared for any kind of selling, at least mentally, until the end of 2020 at the earliest.

Bitcoin will do what it wants to do though so I guess we must be prepared for all scenarios.
I really think 2021 is the time we’ll see fireworks though in this cycle. I think it’s far too early to expect a new ATH this summer.

That scenario is very unlikely, and undesirable IMO.  When that sort of parabolic rise ends, another crypto winter is more likely than anything else.

The 2016 chart is more instructive, and that suggests a few pullbacks this year, ending higher but not ATH.

No cards no names.  Everyone wears their hat. 

How about LITECOIN ?

The question is how many people can you convince? 

As I'm a power-of-two junkie, I second that.

Onwards to $25600 and towards $102400 (WO Party), and beyond...

If I try to force it to fit, this is what it looks like.  A brief dip below $10k then non-stop run to moon.  Which is nice but seems rather optimistic.

Just had a lovely walk and found these little buggers







Nice

Brace your tits guys! The green dildo will come soon.

Source:@whale_alert